Middle East This Week – August 6, 2019

August 6, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore the greater Middle East and North Africa on Tuesdays. Click the map pins.

Tunisia Presidential – September 15, 2019 and Parliamentary – October 6, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and this year, the country will hold the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Ennadha, whichpresents itself as a moderate, pro-democracy Islamist party but holds someretrograde views, won the first post-Ben Ali elections, but in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the secularist Nidaa Tounes won the most seats. In 2018, Tunisia held long-delayed municipal elections, which saw independent candidates win the most seats, followed by Ennadha.

Prime Minister Youssef Chahed broke off from Nidaa Tounes to form Tahya Tounes, another secularist party, and it looks to be a close contest between the fractious secularist parties and Ennadha (Machrouu Tounes, another secularist party, broke from Nidaa Tounes in 2016 and currently has 25 seats in parliament).

President Beji Caid Essebsi of Nidaa Tounes, who became Tunisia’s first democratically-elected president in 2014, died at age 92 on July 25, 2019. The presidential election – originally scheduled for November – was moved to September 15.

Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy

Israel – nicknamed the “startup nation” – is a vibrant democracy. In September, Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s center-right Likud was unable to form a coalition following April’s elections. While parties friendly to Netanyahu won more seats than those friendly to Netanyahu’s main rival, former IDF chief Benny Gantz, coalition talks collapsed over the issue of drafting ultra-Orthodox into the military. One of Likud’s coalition partners, Avgidor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, supported conscription – and refused to budge – while religious parties adamantly opposed it, highlighting growing tensions between secular and religious Israelis. Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset and called for new elections rather than giving Gantz the chance to try to form a government. Additionally, Netanyahu faces corruption charges. The elections are happening in the middle of U.S. President Donald Trump’s quixotic attempt to seal the “deal of the century” between Israelis and Palestinians.

Afghanistan Presidential – September 28, 2019 (further delays possible)

Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Islamic Republic

Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, marred by violence and administrative problems. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election. Presidential campaign is gearing up right in the middle of peace negotiations between the United States and the Taliban.

Algeria Presidential – TBD (was set for July 4, 2019 but has been postponed indefinitely)

Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Algerian politics are dominated by Le Pouvoir, a small group of elite from the military and the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, aged 82 and unable to walk or talk, was going to run for a fifth term in the election originally scheduled for April, but tens of thousands of Algerians protested for two months, and Bouteflika resigned. The election was moved to July 4, but then the Constitutional Council cancelled the vote and has not set a new date. Protests continue. Protesters are demanding assurances that any new elections will be free and fair.

Libya Ongoing Crisis

Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: In Transition

Libya remains in a civil war. The international community wants Libya to hold presidential or parliamentary elections this year. Unclear when the elections will actually happen.

Pakistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Partial Provincial Assembly – July 20, 2019 and General – July 25, 2018

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic

Twenty-one seats out of total 145 seats in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Provincial Assembly are up for election on July 20. The seats are for constituencies that were previously part of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), which merged with KP in 2018 (KP was called the Northwest Frontier Province until 2010). Since FATA did not have a provincial assembly, this marks the first time that voters in those areas will vote for provincial representatives.

Following the turbulent 2018 general election, former cricket star Imran Khan – seen as the military’s preferred candidate – became prime minister when his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) won the most seats.

Turkey, Istanbul Mayoral Re-Run, June 23, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Party Free in 2018) – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Turkey held local elections on March 31, but invalidated the results of the Istanbul mayoral election after Ekrem Imamoglu from the opposition Republican Party (CHP) won by a small margin. They re-ran the election on June 23 after Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) alleged fraud. The move did not pay off – Imamoglu defeated AKP’s Binali Yildirim once again, by an even bigger margin. The election took place in the context of Turkey’s slide into authoritarianism.

Upcoming Elections
Tunisia Presidential – September 15, 2019 and Parliamentary – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and this year, the country will hold the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Ennadha, whichpresents itself as a moderate, pro-democracy Islamist party but holds some retrograde views, won the first post-Ben Ali elections, but in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the secularist Nidaa Tounes won the most seats. In 2018, Tunisia held long-delayed municipal elections, which saw independent candidates win the most seats, followed by Ennadha.

Prime Minister Youssef Chahed broke off from Nidaa Tounes to form Tahya Tounes, another secularist party, and it looks to be a close contest between the fractious secularist parties and Ennadha (Machrouu Tounes, another secularist party, broke from Nidaa Tounes in 2016 and currently has 25 seats in parliament).

President Beji Caid Essebsi of Nidaa Tounes, who became Tunisia’s first democratically-elected president in 2014, died at age 92 on July 25, 2019. The presidential election – originally scheduled for November – was moved to September 15.

Yosra Ouanes, Andalou Agency: “Tunisia: Nominations begin for presidential election: Candidates running for presidency are allowed to file nominations from Aug 2-9”

The North Africa Post: “Over twenty Tunisians have submitted their applications for the snap September 15 presidential elections four days after electoral body launched the process, reports say. As of Tuesday [August 6], the number of applications reached 21 after three independent candidates submitted their bids, Tunis Webdo reports.”

Reuters: “Tunisia’s liberal prime minister, Youssef Chahed, will run for president in an early election expected on Sept. 15, his Tahaya Tounes party said on Wednesday, making him one of the likely frontrunners to succeed Beji Caid Essebsi, who died last week.”

Tarek Amara, Reuters: “Tunisia’s moderate Ennahda VP Mourou to run in presidential elections: Tunisia’s biggest political party Ennahda named a candidate for presidential elections on Tuesday, the first time the moderate Islamist party has put up a nominee for the post since the country transitioned to democracy after the 2011 revolution.”

Tarek El-Tablawy, Bloomberg: “Tunisia’s First Post-Uprising Leader Joins Packed Electoral Race: Moncef Marzouki among more than two dozen potential candidates”

Daily News Egypt: “Tunisia’s interim president extended the country’s state of emergency for another month, his office said in a statement on Friday [August 2]. The state of emergency was announced after two suicide bombers blew themselves up in separate attacks on police in the country’s capital, Tunis in June.”

Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy

Israel – nicknamed the “startup nation” – is a vibrant democracy. In September, Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s center-right Likud was unable to form a coalition following April’s elections. While parties friendly to Netanyahu won more seats than those friendly to Netanyahu’s main rival, former IDF chief Benny Gantz, coalition talks collapsed over the issue of drafting ultra-Orthodox into the military. One of Likud’s coalition partners, Avgidor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, supported conscription – and refused to budge – while religious parties adamantly opposed it, highlighting growing tensions between secular and religious Israelis. Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset and called for new elections rather than giving Gantz the chance to try to form a government. Additionally, Netanyahu faces corruption charges. The elections are happening in the middle of U.S. President Donald Trump’s quixotic attempt to seal the “deal of the century” between Israelis and Palestinians.

Marcy Oster, Jewish Telegraphic Agency: “Who’s running in Israel’s September elections, explained”

Haaretz: “All the Candidates Running in Israel’s September Do-over Election: Since the election in April, which saw parties like the Joint List and Habayit Hayehudi break down into factions, the September 17 repeat election seems to be having the opposite effect”

Yossi Beilin, Al-Monitor: “Netanyahu prepares for elections, makes diplomatic push”

Sam Sokol, Jerusalem Post: “How secular Ayelet Shaked came to dominate the right-wing religious camp: The 43-year-old mother of two is a secular Jew from Tel Aviv.”

Gil Hoffman, Jerusalem Post: “Winners, losers in the merger mess – analysis. Now the real campaigns begin”

Afghanistan Presidential – September 28, 2019 (further delays possible)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Islamic Republic

Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, marred by violence and administrative problems. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election. Presidential campaign is gearing up right in the middle of peace negotiations between the United States and the Taliban.

Sayed Salahuddin, Washington Post: “Taliban militants announced Tuesday that they intend to disrupt Afghanistan’s presidential campaign and Sept. 28 polls. Their statement came just hours after U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad reported ‘excellent progress’ during talks with the insurgents in Qatar.”

Gulabuddin Ghubar, TOLO News: “Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah at a ceremony in Kabul on Sunday called on members of Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) to remain impartial in the election, stating that any attempt by these forces to influence the process could have serious repercussions on the credibility and fame of the Afghan security institutions in the public mindset.”

Nabila Ashrafi, TOLO News: “UN Renews Support To Afghan Elections: The UN chief in Afghanistan calls on Afghans to use their right of voting.”

Pamela Constable, Washington Post: “Violence in Afghanistan takes high toll on civilians despite the promise of peace talks”

Ian J. Lynch, The Diplomat: “Women Are Critical to Building a Lasting Peace in Afghanistan”

Algeria Presidential – TBD (was set for July 4, 2019 but has been postponed indefinitely)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Algerian politics are dominated by Le Pouvoir, a small group of elite from the military and the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, aged 82 and unable to walk or talk, was going to run for a fifth term in the election originally scheduled for April, but tens of thousands of Algerians protested for two months, and Bouteflika resigned. The election was moved to July 4, but then the Constitutional Council cancelled the vote and has not set a new date. Protests continue. Protesters are demanding assurances that any new elections will be free and fair.

Stratfor: “Algeria: Amid a Political Transition, the Government Puts Its Foot Down”

Libya Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: In Transition

Libya remains in a civil war. The international community wants Libya to hold presidential or parliamentary elections this year. Unclear when the elections will actually happen.

Borzou Daragahi, The Independent: “A network of Libyan activists in the country’s east opposed to warlord Khalifa Haftar’s months-long offensive to seize the capital, Tripoli, has emerged; evidence that the civil society idealists who originally began the 2011 uprising against the dictatorship of Muammar Gaddafi persist, even if they are often cowering in fear.”

Reuters: “Libya’s UN-Backed Government Steps Up Defense Spending as War Drags On”

Past Elections
Pakistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Partial Provincial Assembly – July 20, 2019 and General – July 25, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic

Twenty-one seats out of total 145 seats in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Provincial Assembly are up for election on July 20. The seats are for constituencies that were previously part of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), which merged with KP in 2018 (KP was called the Northwest Frontier Province until 2010). Since FATA did not have a provincial assembly, this marks the first time that voters in those areas will vote for provincial representatives.

Following the turbulent 2018 general election, former cricket star Imran Khan – seen as the military’s preferred candidate – became prime minister when his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) won the most seats.

Pakistan Today: “The ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) suffered a significant drop in its vote shares and seats percentage in the elections held for the recently-merged tribal districts, the Free and Fair Election Network (FAFEN) said in its report on Sunday. According to the report, the PTI, which had emerged as the largest political party of the country a year ago, witnessed an 11 per cent decline in its vote bank.”

Mehmal Sarfraz, The Hindu: “Pakistan’s Senate Chairman Sadiq Sanjrani surprisingly survived the Opposition’s no-confidence vote on August 1 by three votes. The Opposition has 64 members in the Senate and it needed 53 votes for the motion to pass in the 104-member House, but when the votes were counted, the Opposition managed to get only 50 votes.”

Turkey, Istanbul Mayoral Re-Run, June 23, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Party Free in 2018) – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Turkey held local elections on March 31, but invalidated the results of the Istanbul mayoral election after Ekrem Imamoglu from the opposition Republican Party (CHP) won by a small margin. They re-ran the election on June 23 after Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) alleged fraud. The move did not pay off – Imamoglu defeated AKP’s Binali Yildirim once again, by an even bigger margin. The election took place in the context of Turkey’s slide into authoritarianism.

Ian J. Lynch, Ahval: “The victory of Turkish secular opposition candidate, Ekrem İmamoğlu, in the rerun of Istanbul’s mayoral election in June is a rebuke to the authoritarian tendencies of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his governing Islamist party. Although the election highlights the competitive nature of Turkey’s politics, the country’s democracy is not definitively back on track.”

The Year Ahead: Middle East
Egypt local (due 2019 – date not set – delays likely); Libya (international community wants presidential or legislative elections this year – delays highly likely); Algeria presidential (July 4 – cancelled); Israel snap parliamentary (September 17); Afghanistan presidential (September 28); Tunisia presidential and parliamentary (September 15 and November 17); Iraq provincial (November 16); Iran parliamentary (February 2020); Palestinian Authority legislative (elections overdue – new government says they aim to hold elections but no date set)


Afghan voters in Herat. Afghan women risk losing many of their newly-won rights in the potential peace deal with the Taliban, and even now, many Afghan women are forced against their will to hide themselves completely under the burka.
Photo credit:
Flickr/USAID Afghanistan (public domain)

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