Upcoming Elections
Togo Local By-Elections – August 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
These elections happened in the context of widespread protests that began in 2017 demanding the resignation of President Faure Gnassingbé, whose family has ruled Togo for 50 years, the longest-ruling family in Africa. In December 2018, the C14 coalition of opposition parties boycotted legislative elections and their supporters did not vote, but Gnassingbé’s party still managed to lose seats. However, a brutal crackdown has led to reduced morale for the opposition.
IciLome (in French): “The second phase of municipal elections will take place on August 15, following the first phase on June 30. Voters in five municipalities including Avé 2, Bassar 4, Otisud 1, Wawa 1 and Zio 4 will go to the polls, in the by-elections to elect sixty-three city councilors, from twenty-four lists.”
Zimbabwe National Assembly By-Elections, Glen View South and Mangwe constituencies – September 7, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (improved from Not Free in 2019) – Government Type: Presidential Republic
A coup in 2017 led to the fall of Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s longtime dictator, who left a legacy of gross economic mismanagement and political repression. Mugabe had ruled Zimbabwe with the aid of former Soviet security advice since the transition of apartheid rule in 1979. The 2018 elections for parliament and president had a number of flaws but nonetheless did offer the hope of some semblance of democratic legitimacy to the government. Emmerson Mnangagwa of Mugabe’s ZANU-PF – a former intelligence chief nicknamed “The Crocodile” – narrowly won the presidential race, and promised “radical economic reforms.” However, critics say those reforms have not materialized as of yet, and a violent crackdown on the opposition following the elections echoed Mugabe’s tactics. Zimbabweans live with extreme poverty, food insecurity, and hyperinflation.
The Glen View South seat became vacant when Vimbai Tsvangirai-Java, the daughter of Mugabe’s main rival the late Morgan Tsvangirai, died in a car crash. Tsvangirai was leader of Zimbabwe’s main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), and members of his family still serve in the party. The Mangwe seat became vacant when ZANU-PF’s Obedingwa Mguni died of an illness. Glen VIew is near the capital, Harare, in the northeast of the country, and Mangwe is near Bulawayo, Zimbabwe’s second city, in the southwest of the country.
Farai Mutsaka, AP: “Zimbabwe’s former longtime ruler Robert Mugabe, 95, has been in a Singapore hospital for the past three months and his condition ‘is remarkably stable for his age,’ the country’s president said.”
Fanuel Jongwe, Mail and Guardian: “A year after Mnangagwa’s election, old woes haunt Zimbabwe”
AFP: “Zimbabwe’s government came under fire on Thursday for failing to bring to justice soldiers who killed six people and injured dozens in post-election protests a year ago.”
Somalia Jubaland State Presidential and Parliament (indirect) – August 2019 and Federal Parliamentary and Presidential – due 2020 or 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Somalia hasn’t held direct elections in 50 years at the federal level, and at the state level, only the de facto independent Somaliland holds one-person-one-vote polls. The other states have electoral colleges with clan elders as electors. Somalia has federal elections due in 2020 or 2021, and hopes to move toward a one-person-one-vote model. However, the August Jubaland elections are not direct (which is why they are not on our big map). Politics – and conflict – throughout Somalia is largely based on clans, but efforts have been made to move toward a politics based on political parties. The terrorist group al-Shabab remains a menace.
Jubaland is rich in natural resources, raising the stakes of the election. Kismayo, the capital of Jubaland, this month saw the biggest terrorist attack since an action led by Kenyan soldiers ousted al-Shabab from the city in 2012.
Fred Oluoch and Abdulkadir Khalif, The East African: “Somalia-based Islamic insurgency al-Shabab are believed to be trying to influence or scuttle the 2020 presidential election, even as the US increases air bombardment to weaken them. Two weeks ago, Al Shabaab ordered all the elders and delegates who choose the members of the federal legislature and the state councils to register with the group.”
New Delhi Times: “[Militant groups] warned Somali clan and sub-clan elders to not participate in any way in upcoming election processes in either the semi-autonomous Somali regional states or the next federal elections, the latter of which is scheduled for 2020. As per the tradition, clan elders currently select candidates for the regional and federal parliament elections based on the country’s ‘4.5’ system which reserves an equal number of seats for Somalia’s four large clan families, the Hawiye, Dir, Darod, and Rahanweyn (1 to 1) and .5 seats (half a seat) to every 1 for the clan families to a collective group of minority clan and ethnic groups.”
Matthew Weaver, The Guardian: “Mayor of Mogadishu dies as result of al-Shabaab attack. Abdirahman Omar Osman was a naturalised Briton who once worked as a council housing manager in London….Al-Shabaab was chased out of Mogadishu in 2011, but the capital is still hit regularly by the militants, who retained control of large swaths of the countryside.”
Mohammed Omar Ahmed, Bloomberg: “Somalian authorities executed two al-Shabaab militants who were convicted for a December attack that killed at least 13 people in the capital, Mogadishu.”
AP: “Somalia’s President Gives Up US Citizenship, But Unclear Why”
Aggrey Mutambo, The East African: “‘It will boost his campaign and earn him political lifeline,’ [commentator Dr Abdiwahab Sheikh] argued, referring to the upcoming elections in 2020. No Somali president in this transition period has managed to be voted back into power.”
Somali Affairs: “Somalia’s Wadajir opposition party leader, Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame, has said that the militant group Al-Shabaab has infiltrated security and financial institutions in the country.”
Standard Digital (Kenya): “With three weeks to the elections, Jubaland has seen heightened political temperatures as political leaders and former army chiefs battle the end of Sheikh Ahmed Madobe’s eight-year reign.”
The Nation (Kenya): “He was among elders selecting members for Jubaland’s assembly – these MPs are then due to elect the regional president later this month.”
Stratfor: “Somalia: Ethiopian Forces Take Control of Positions in Kismayo [capital of Jubaland] After Kenyan Troops Withdraw”
Dalsan Radio: “Somalia: Why Kenya Is Interested in Jubaland Elections”
Botswana Parliamentary – October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Botswana, the world’s second-largest producer of diamonds, is a stable democracy with regular free, fair, credible elections. In 2018, President Ian Khama stepped down exactly 10 years after his inauguration, in keeping with the constitutional limit of two terms in office (his predecessor had done the same thing). Mokgweetsi Masisi, the former vice president, is filling the role of the presidency until after the elections, when the National Assembly will choose a new president. Khama’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – founded by his father, Seretse Khama, protagonist of the 2017 film A United Kingdom – has dominated politics since independence in 1966, but soon after leaving office, Khama left the BDP to form a new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front. The split could open up debate on actual policy, or it could devolve into a personal power struggle.
The National Assembly will elect a new president following the parliamentary elections.
Joel Konopo, amaBhungane: “Botswana: Turmoil in Africa’s ‘model democracy’”
Judd Devermont, Mail and Guardian: “Youthful politicians come of age”
Mozambique Presidential, Legislative, and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since then until an August 2019 peace accord). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.
RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities.Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth. In the upcoming elections, in addition to voting for president, citizens will elect provincial governors directly for the first time – previously, they had been appointed by the president.
Al Jazeera: ”Mozambique‘s president and the leader of Renamo, a former rebel movement-turned-opposition party, have signed a peace accord to end armed hostilities. Thousands of Renamo’s remaining fighters are disarming just weeks before a visit by Pope Francis and a national election scheduled for mid-October that will test the now-political rivals’ new resolve.”
Payce Madden, Brookings Institution: “The peace deal was signed in Gorongosa, a Renamo stronghold in central Mozambique.”
Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – Early 2020 (delayed from October 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.
Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat. The political crisis has an ethnic dimension.
Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections, which are likely delayed following a July vote by the National Assembly to extend its term in office (the National Assembly’s second extension). The mandates were set to expire October 29, 2019 and have been extended for two months, so the elections that had been due in October most likely will not happen before 2020.
Yuhniwo Ngenge, Al Jazeera: “Cameroon’s many fault lines: It is not just the Anglophone conflict that is threatening the stability of the Cameroonian state.”
Journal du Cameroun: “The Social Democratic Front has announced an ordinary meeting of the party’s National Executive Committee, NEC to hold in Douala on August 10.
Though the order of the day was not revealed, sources say the party is set to continue discussing whether it will participate at upcoming elections in the present security context in the North West and South West regions.”
Madagascar Communal Elections – October 28, 2019 (postponed – no new date set)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Madagascar’s recent parliamentary and presidential elections were hotly-contested and turbulent, and were followed by protests. The mandates of the current communal elected officials expire in September 2019.
RFI (in French): “Madagascar: strong reactions after postponement of communal elections”
Guinea-Bissau Presidential – November 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
In March 2019, Guinea-Bissau finally held long-delayed legislative elections. The ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) won 47 out of 102 seats, but made deals with three smaller parties to form a coalition with 54 seats. Prone to coups (most recently in 2012), no elected leader has served a full term since independence from Portugal. The country remains in a political crisis, with President José Mário Vaz (known as Jomav) in a feud with his own party (PAIGC). Vaz plans to run for re-election. Sometimes dubbed “the world’s first narco-state,” it risks once again becoming a hub for drug traffickers.
APA News: “The filing of nomination papers for the November 24 2019 presidential election in Guinea Bissau, begins on Thursday, and ends on September 25, the country’s Supreme Court (STJ) announced in a statement to APA.”
The Voice (Gambia): “Law enforcement officials from The Gambia, Senegal and Guinea Bissau have signed an agreement aimed at combating drug trafficking and other organised crimes along their borders.”
RFI (in Portuguese): “Could Guinea-Bissau have finally discovered oil?”
Mali Parliamentary – Due June 2019 (postponed indefinitely) and Regional and Local – Due November 2019 (delays likely)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Preparations for the upcoming elections, which have been delayed multiple times, are happening in the context of insurgency and widespread intercommunal violence. It is one of the deadliest missions for UN peacekeepers. In 2018, President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta (often referred to as IBK) won second term amid allegations of fraud and instances of violence. Islamist groups killed at least three election workers, burned polling stations, and intimidated voters. Regional elections were originally scheduled for December 2017 but have been delayed due to objections by insurgents. Legislative elections were originally scheduled for October 2018, and then delayed to June 2019, and now are delayed indefinitely.
AFP: “Armed groups of the rival Fulani and Dogan ethnic communities in central Mali have signed accords to ‘cease hostilities,’ during a visit by the country’s prime minister, official sources said Monday.”
Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Following three years of protests, Ethiopia’s ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners and opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful. However, violence could threaten Abiy’s reforms.
In the 2015 elections – which were not free and fair – the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats.
Yonas Abiye, The Reporter (Ethiopia): “With uncertainty surrounding the upcoming general election, The House of People’s Representatives (HPR) has passed the decision to postpone local elections and the election of the Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa city councils,which it has done for the second time,to be carried out along with the upcoming 6th General Elections scheduled for May 2020.”
Morris Kiruga, The Africa Report: “Ethiopia’s newly constituted election board says it will hold a referendum for the Sidama Zone in five months, more than a year after the community formally requested statehood. The referendum for what could be the Horn of Africa country’s tenth federal state will most likely accelerate similar demands by other ethnic groups.”
Burundi Presidential and Legislative – May 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
In 2015, President Pierre Nkurunziza ran for a third term, which critics said was unconstitutional. Nkurunziza’s decision sparked a political crisis. The opposition boycotted the election. Nkurunziza won, but the election was marred by violence and a coup attempt. In 2018, Nkurunziza said he would step down in 2020. Burundi’s 12-year civil war ended in 2005, but violence and authoritarianism have been on the rise. Many Burundians are nervous about the upcoming polls.
BBC: “More than 10 offices of the Burundi’s main opposition party have blyeen set alight or defaced with human faeces over the last two months, a party official has told the BBC. Therence Manirambona, the spokesperson for the National Congress for Freedom (CNL), said it was part of efforts to discourage democracy and terrify the opposition ahead of 2020 presidential elections.”
CPJ: “The Committee to Protect Journalists today joined 40 other civil society organizations in calling on member and observer states of the U.N. Human Rights Council to extend for a year the mandate of the Commission of Inquiry on Burundi.”
Central African Republic General – December 27, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
The Central African Republic (CAR) faces a humanitarian crisis and a crisis of governance. Russia has ramped up its political and military involvement in exchange for mining rights. Last year, three Russian journalists from a newspaper critical of the Kremlin were killed in the country while they were investigating the role of Russian military contractor in exploiting the CAR’s mineral wealth.
RFI: “In CAR, politics is in turmoil. Everything seems to revolve around the general elections scheduled for December 27, 2020.”
Uganda General – February 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Partly Free this year) – Government Type: Presidential Republic
President Yoweri Museveni has held power since 1986 and looks likely to seek a sixth term. Musaveni is seen as an ally to Western governments on counterterrorism issues, despite concerns about human rights and civil liberties.
Musaveni’s National Resistance Movement (NRM), an authoritarian nationalist party, was originally a militia involved in the struggle to topple the government in 1986. In the last presidential election in 2016 (which was marred by an uneven playing field and government use of state resources and security services for political purposes), which wasn Kizza Besigye of the main opposition center-right Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) won 35.6 percent, coming in second. NRM holds 293 out of 426 seats in parliament, and FDC holds 36 (other opposition parties hold 21).
Elias Biryabarema, Reuters: “A Ugandan musician-turned-legislator who is seeking to challenge veteran President Yoweri Museveni said on Monday a supporter and fellow singer had died after being abducted and tortured, in what police are treating as a homicide.”
Reuters: “A prominent Ugandan academic has been sentenced to 18 months in prison after being found guilty of cyberharassment for a series of Facebook posts criticizing President Yoweri Museveni, including calling him ‘a pair of buttocks.’”
Sudan Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
In April, nonviolent demonstrations ousted Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir. In June 2019, around the 30th anniversary of Tiananmen Square, Sudanese troops massacred citizens protesting the regime.
BBC: “Sudan’s ruling military council and main opposition coalition have signed a constitutional declaration which will pave the way for the formation of a transitional government.”
Tom Wilson, Financial Times: “The agreement fleshes out a political deal signed last month under which a new sovereign council will be established to run the country for three years until elections are held. The body will be headed by a member of the military for the first 21 months before the leadership rotates to a civilian. A new legislature and a technocratic, civilian cabinet will also be set up.”
Justin Lynch, Foreign Policy: “How Sudan’s Military Overcame the Revolution: Sudan’s protesters wanted to overthrow their president and his regime. They were only half-successful.”
Past Elections
Zambia, Katuba By-Election – July 30, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Zambia’s next general election is due in 2021, but a by-election in Katuba, in the west of the country, because the incumbent – Patricia Mwashingwele of the opposition United Party for National Development (UPND) – died. The governing center-left Patriotic Front (PF) has 89 out of 166 in the unicameral National Assembly, and the main opposition liberal UPND has 58 seats. The 2016 presidential election was close – PF’s Edgar Lungu ultimately prevailed in a poll that was marred by tension and allegations of vote rigging but ultimately judged credible.
Chris Phiri, Zambia Reports: “OPINION: UPND Retains Katuba With Toil….These by-elections have shown us something that some people wouldn’t want to publicly admit. This is that the ruling Patriotic Front are the real victors at the end of the day!”
Lusaka Times: “The Patriotic Front has scooped all the local government by-elections held on Tuesday. PF emerged victorious in Lubwa, Lwingishi, Mangango and Kanabulimbu wards.”
Liberia By-Elections – July 29, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
When President George Weah, a former footballer, was elected in 2017, Liberia saw its first peaceful transition of power since 1944. The country holds elections to the Senate in 2020.
Rodney Sieh, Front Page Africa: “Ruling CDC Concedes Senatorial Race to Opposition Dillon; But Claims District 15 Legislative Seat Win
David S. Menjor and Hannah N. Geterminah, Liberian Observer: “Though Friday’s vote count put her in the lead ahead of her rival Abu Kamara, albeit by a rather narrow margin, Ms. Telia Urey, candidate of the four opposition collaborating political parties in the just ended representative by-election in Montserrado County District #15, has said she will not accept any result associated with ‘fraud’ from authorities of the National Elections Commission(NEC) expect the Commission conducts re-run of the election in the district, free of any political influence.”
Alpha Daffae Senkpeni, Front Page Africa: “By-Elections Results Show Diminishing Popularity of Liberia’s President in His Stronghold”
VOA: “Clashes erupted Wednesday in the capital of Liberia, Monrovia, during a protest against President George Weah, then in the afternoon when announcing the likely victory of an opposition candidate at a senatorial by-election.”
R. Joyclyn Wea, The New Republic Liberia: “The Government of Liberia is expected to prosecute fifteen anti-government protesters following their arrest on Wednesday, July 31, 2019.”
Mauritania Presidential – June 22, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Mauritania’s incumbent president, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, came to power in a military coup in 2009 and the country is rated “not free” by Freedom House, but some hope that political space could be opening up, albeit slowly. While most believed that the ruling Union for the Republic party’s candidate, Defense Minister Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, would win (and he was indeed declared the winner), opposition candidates, including anti-slavery activist Biram Dah Abeid, participated. This contrasts with the 2014 presidential election, which the opposition boycotted. There are concerns about the electoral process and the lack of international observers.
Abdur Rahman Alfa Shaban, AfricaNews with AP: “Mauritania’s new president has taken the oath of office, completing the West African nation’s first peaceful transfer of power.”
North Africa Post: “Ghazouani won June 22 elections with 52 per cent of the votes. The opposition contested the victory which was marked by riots and several days of internet blackout. In his inaugural speech, President Ghouzani said the Mauritanian people had written an important page in the country’s history and confirmed the maturity of its political system.”
Al Jazeera: “A blogger in Mauritania who drew international attention after he was sentenced to death over blasphemy has been released, his lawyer and campaign group Reporters Without Borders (RSF) said. Cheikh Ould Mohamed Ould Mkhaitir, 36, was sentenced to death in 2014 over a Facebook post about Islam, but was then given a jail term on appeal.”
Amnesty International: “Mauritania’s new President must commit to addressing the country’s appalling human rights record, by taking meaningful measures to end the scourge of slavery and protect human rights defenders and activists from arbitrary arrest, torture and other ill-treatment, Amnesty International said today, as Mohamed Ould Ghazouani prepared to be sworn into office.”
Malawi Tripartite (Presidential, Legislative, Local) – May 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Malawi24: “Malawi Government through the Attorney General Kalekeni Kaphale has asked the High Court to ban post-election demonstrations. Kaphale has applied for an injunction to stop demonstrations against the outcome of the May 21 elections until the conclusion of the presidential election court case.”
Benin Parliamentary – April 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Benin was previously a model democracy in the region, but the April 2019 parliamentary elections changed that. Opposition candidates were barred from running, and security forces opened fire on protesters.
AFP: “A court in Benin on Friday handed a top opposition politician a suspended six-month jail term over campaign breaches and banned him from standing for elections for five years, judicial sources said. Former prime minister Lionel Zinsou, who lives in France, was found guilty of using false documents and “exceeding” spending limits in his 2016 bid for the West African nation’s presidency.”
Democratic Republic of the Congo General – December 30, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
The DRC’s December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu. When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi. The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country, but both have returned.
The Economist: “Ebola is a reminder of why the world should pay attention to Congo….Most donors do not want to reward a stolen election. But no one wants to see the collapse of a state seven times the size of Germany at the heart of Africa, either. It is too early to say whether Mr Tshisekedi’s regime will be as corrupt as its predecessors, but it might not be.”
Christophe Le Bec, The Africa Report: “Six months after the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) presidential elections, discussions on the extractive sector are still on the table”
William Clowes, Bloomberg: “Former Democratic Republic of Congo President Joseph Kabila will retain control of the key mining portfolio under an agreement with his successor to share cabinet posts between their coalitions.”
David Bruckmeier, African Arguments: “The eastern DRC’s most active rebel group just got a bit more dangerous: Is the ADF rebel group now a province of so-called Islamic State?”
The Gambia Presidential – December 1, 2016 and Legislative – April 6, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
In December 2016, The Gambia began a remarkable transition to democracy. Citizens removed dictator Yahya Jammeh peacefully, via the ballot box, and began the process of establishing a free society.
APA News: “Why is anger spilling into Gambian streets? Last week witnessed a series of wildcat protests in the streets of The Gambia as political tensions mount four months ahead of the country’s so-called hour of truth in December.”
Emil Touray, AFP: “Outrage in Gambia over claims ex-president ordered killings: Now the wall of silence around Jammeh’s 22-year reign of fear is starting to crack, and information — if not yet justice — is starting to flow.”
Abdoulaye Bah, Global Voices: “The Gambia’s truth commission continues to confront abuses under past president’s regime: ‘Truth-telling is not a sport for victors and losers’”
Equatorial Guinea Presidential – April 24, 2016
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
AFP: “Equatorial Guinea’s opposition has called for international sanctions against President Teodoro Obiang Nguema’s regime as the ruler widely criticised for rights abuses marks four decades in power.”
Africa This Week – August 5, 2019
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Last Updated: August 24, 2019 by 21votes
August 5, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Africa on Mondays. Click the map pins.
Togo Local By-Elections - August 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
These elections happened in the context of widespread protests that began in 2017 demanding the resignation of President Faure Gnassingbé, whose family has ruled Togo for 50 years, the longest-ruling family in Africa. In December 2018, the C14 coalition of opposition parties boycotted legislative elections and their supporters did not vote, but Gnassingbé’s party still managed to lose seats. However, a brutal crackdown has led to reduced morale for the opposition
Zimbabwe National Assembly By-Elections, Glen View South and Mangwe constituencies – September 7, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (improved from Not Free in 2019) – Government Type: Presidential Republic
A coup in 2017 led to the fall of Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s longtime dictator, who left a legacy of gross economic mismanagement and political repression. Mugabe had ruled Zimbabwe with the aid of former Soviet security advice since the transition of apartheid rule in 1979. The 2018 elections for parliament and president had a number of flaws but nonetheless did offer the hope of some semblance of democratic legitimacy to the government. Emmerson Mnangagwa of Mugabe’s ZANU-PF – a former intelligence chief nicknamed “The Crocodile” – narrowly won the presidential race, and promised “radical economic reforms.” However, critics say those reforms have not materialized as of yet, and a violent crackdown on the opposition following the elections echoed Mugabe’s tactics. Zimbabweans live with extreme poverty, food insecurity, and hyperinflation.
The Glen View South seat became vacant when Vimbai Tsvangirai-Java, the daughter of Mugabe’s main rival the late Morgan Tsvangirai, died in a car crash. Tsvangirai was leader of Zimbabwe’s main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), and members of his family still serve in the party. The Mangwe seat became vacant when ZANU-PF’s Obedingwa Mguni died of an illness. Glen VIew is near the capital, Harare, in the northeast of the country, and Mangwe is near Bulawayo, Zimbabwe’s second city, in the southwest of the country.
Somalia Jubaland State Presidential and Parliament (indirect) – August 2019 and Federal Parliamentary and Presidential - due 2020 or 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Somalia hasn’t held direct elections in 50 years at the federal level, and at the state level, only the de facto independent Somaliland holds one-person-one-vote polls. The other states have electoral colleges with clan elders as electors. Somalia has federal elections due in 2020 or 2021, and hopes to move toward a one-person-one-vote model. However, the August Jubaland elections are not direct (which is why they are not on our big map). Politics – and conflict – throughout Somalia is largely based on clans, but efforts have been made to move toward a politics based on political parties. The terrorist group al-Shabab remains a menace.
Jubaland is rich in natural resources, raising the stakes of the election. Kismayo, the capital of Jubaland, this month saw the biggest terrorist attack since an action led by Kenyan soldiers ousted al-Shabab from the city in 2012.
Botswana Parliamentary – October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Botswana, the world’s second-largest producer of diamonds, is a stable democracy with regular free, fair, credible elections. In 2018, President Ian Khama stepped down exactly 10 years after his inauguration, in keeping with the constitutional limit of two terms in office (his predecessor had done the same thing). Mokgweetsi Masisi, the former vice president, is filling the role of the presidency until after the elections, when the National Assembly will choose a new president. Khama’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – founded by his father, Seretse Khama, protagonist of the 2017 film A United Kingdom – has dominated politics since independence in 1966, but soon after leaving office, Khama left the BDP to form a new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front. The split could open up debate on actual policy, or it could devolve into a personal power struggle.
The National Assembly will elect a new president following the parliamentary elections.
Mozambique Presidential, Legislative, and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since then until an August 2019 peace accord). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.
RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities.Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth. In the upcoming elections, in addition to voting for president, citizens will elect provincial governors directly for the first time – previously, they had been appointed by the president.
Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – Early 2020 (delayed from October 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.
Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat. The political crisis has an ethnic dimension.
Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections, which are likely delayed following a July vote by the National Assembly to extend its term in office (the National Assembly’s second extension). The mandates were set to expire October 29, 2019 and have been extended for two months, so the elections that had been due in October most likely will not happen before 2020.
Madagascar Communal Elections - October 28, 2019 (postponed - no new date set)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Madagascar’s recent parliamentary and presidential elections were hotly-contested and turbulent, and were followed by protests. The mandates of the current communal elected officials expire in September 2019.
Guinea-Bissau Presidential – November 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
In March 2019, Guinea-Bissau finally held long-delayed legislative elections. The ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) won 47 out of 102 seats, but made deals with three smaller parties to form a coalition with 54 seats. Prone to coups (most recently in 2012), no elected leader has served a full term since independence from Portugal. The country remains in a political crisis, with President José Mário Vaz (known as Jomav) in a feud with his own party (PAIGC). Vaz plans to run for re-election. Sometimes dubbed “the world’s first narco-state,” it risks once again becoming a hub for drug traffickers.
Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Following three years of protests, Ethiopia’s ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners and opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful. However, violence could threaten Abiy’s reforms.
In the 2015 elections – which were not free and fair – the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats.
Uganda General – February 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Partly Free this year) – Government Type: Presidential Republic
President Yoweri Museveni has held power since 1986 and looks likely to seek a sixth term. Musaveni is seen as an ally to Western governments on counterterrorism issues, despite concerns about human rights and civil liberties.
Musaveni’s National Resistance Movement (NRM), an authoritarian nationalist party, was originally a militia involved in the struggle to topple the government in 1986. In the last presidential election in 2016 (which was marred by an uneven playing field and government use of state resources and security services for political purposes), which wasn Kizza Besigye of the main opposition center-right Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) won 35.6 percent, coming in second. NRM holds 293 out of 426 seats in parliament, and FDC holds 36 (other opposition parties hold 21).
Burundi Presidential and Legislative – May 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
In 2015, President Pierre Nkurunziza ran for a third term, which critics said was unconstitutional. Nkurunziza’s decision sparked a political crisis. The opposition boycotted the election. Nkurunziza won, but the election was marred by violence and a coup attempt. In 2018, Nkurunziza said he would step down in 2020. Burundi’s 12-year civil war ended in 2005, but violence and authoritarianism have been on the rise. Many Burundians are nervous about the upcoming polls.
Mali Parliamentary – Due June 2019 (postponed indefinitely) and Regional and Local – Due November 2019 (delays likely)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Preparations for the upcoming elections, which have been delayed multiple times, are happening in the context of insurgency and widespread intercommunal violence. It is one of the deadliest missions for UN peacekeepers. In 2018, President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta (often referred to as IBK) won second term amid allegations of fraud and instances of violence. Islamist groups killed at least three election workers, burned polling stations, and intimidated voters. Regional elections were originally scheduled for December 2017 but have been delayed due to objections by insurgents. Legislative elections were originally scheduled for October 2018, and then delayed to June 2019, and now are delayed indefinitely.
Central African Republic General - December 27, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
The Central African Republic (CAR) faces a humanitarian crisis and a crisis of governance. Russia has ramped up its political and military involvement in exchange for mining rights. Last year, three Russian journalists from a newspaper critical of the Kremlin were killed in the country while they were investigating the role of Russian military contractor in exploiting the CAR’s mineral wealth.
Sudan Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
In April, nonviolent demonstrations ousted Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir. In June 2019, around the 30th anniversary of Tiananmen Square, Sudanese troops massacred citizens protesting the regime.
Zambia, Katuba By-Election – July 30, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Zambia’s next general election is due in 2021, but a by-election in Katuba, in the west of the country, because the incumbent – Patricia Mwashingwele of the opposition United Party for National Development (UPND) – died. The governing center-left Patriotic Front (PF) has 89 out of 166 in the unicameral National Assembly, and the main opposition liberal UPND has 58 seats. The 2016 presidential election was close – PF’s Edgar Lungu ultimately prevailed in a poll that was marred by tension and allegations of vote rigging but ultimately judged credible.
Liberia By-Elections – July 29, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
When President George Weah, a former footballer, was elected in 2017, Liberia saw its first peaceful transition of power since 1944. The country holds elections to the Senate in 2020.
Mauritania Presidential – June 22, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Mauritania’s incumbent president, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, came to power in a military coup in 2009 and the country is rated “not free” by Freedom House, but some hope that political space could be opening up, albeit slowly. While most believed that the ruling Union for the Republic party’s candidate, Defense Minister Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, would win (and he was indeed declared the winner), opposition candidates, including anti-slavery activist Biram Dah Abeid, participated. This contrasts with the 2014 presidential election, which the opposition boycotted. There are concerns about the electoral process and the lack of international observers.
Malawi Tripartite (Presidential, Legislative, Local) – May 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Benin Parliamentary – April 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Benin was previously a model democracy in the region, but the April 2019 parliamentary elections changed that. Opposition candidates were barred from running, and security forces opened fire on protesters.
Democratic Republic of the Congo General – December 30, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
The DRC’s December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu. When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi. The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country, but both have returned.
The Gambia Presidential – December 1, 2016 and Legislative – April 6, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
In December 2016, The Gambia began a remarkable transition to democracy. Citizens removed dictator Yahya Jammeh peacefully, via the ballot box, and began the process of establishing a free society.
Equatorial Guinea Presidential - April 24, 2016
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Upcoming Elections
Togo Local By-Elections – August 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
These elections happened in the context of widespread protests that began in 2017 demanding the resignation of President Faure Gnassingbé, whose family has ruled Togo for 50 years, the longest-ruling family in Africa. In December 2018, the C14 coalition of opposition parties boycotted legislative elections and their supporters did not vote, but Gnassingbé’s party still managed to lose seats. However, a brutal crackdown has led to reduced morale for the opposition.
IciLome (in French): “The second phase of municipal elections will take place on August 15, following the first phase on June 30. Voters in five municipalities including Avé 2, Bassar 4, Otisud 1, Wawa 1 and Zio 4 will go to the polls, in the by-elections to elect sixty-three city councilors, from twenty-four lists.”
Zimbabwe National Assembly By-Elections, Glen View South and Mangwe constituencies – September 7, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (improved from Not Free in 2019) – Government Type: Presidential Republic
A coup in 2017 led to the fall of Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s longtime dictator, who left a legacy of gross economic mismanagement and political repression. Mugabe had ruled Zimbabwe with the aid of former Soviet security advice since the transition of apartheid rule in 1979. The 2018 elections for parliament and president had a number of flaws but nonetheless did offer the hope of some semblance of democratic legitimacy to the government. Emmerson Mnangagwa of Mugabe’s ZANU-PF – a former intelligence chief nicknamed “The Crocodile” – narrowly won the presidential race, and promised “radical economic reforms.” However, critics say those reforms have not materialized as of yet, and a violent crackdown on the opposition following the elections echoed Mugabe’s tactics. Zimbabweans live with extreme poverty, food insecurity, and hyperinflation.
The Glen View South seat became vacant when Vimbai Tsvangirai-Java, the daughter of Mugabe’s main rival the late Morgan Tsvangirai, died in a car crash. Tsvangirai was leader of Zimbabwe’s main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), and members of his family still serve in the party. The Mangwe seat became vacant when ZANU-PF’s Obedingwa Mguni died of an illness. Glen VIew is near the capital, Harare, in the northeast of the country, and Mangwe is near Bulawayo, Zimbabwe’s second city, in the southwest of the country.
Farai Mutsaka, AP: “Zimbabwe’s former longtime ruler Robert Mugabe, 95, has been in a Singapore hospital for the past three months and his condition ‘is remarkably stable for his age,’ the country’s president said.”
Fanuel Jongwe, Mail and Guardian: “A year after Mnangagwa’s election, old woes haunt Zimbabwe”
AFP: “Zimbabwe’s government came under fire on Thursday for failing to bring to justice soldiers who killed six people and injured dozens in post-election protests a year ago.”
Somalia Jubaland State Presidential and Parliament (indirect) – August 2019 and Federal Parliamentary and Presidential – due 2020 or 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Somalia hasn’t held direct elections in 50 years at the federal level, and at the state level, only the de facto independent Somaliland holds one-person-one-vote polls. The other states have electoral colleges with clan elders as electors. Somalia has federal elections due in 2020 or 2021, and hopes to move toward a one-person-one-vote model. However, the August Jubaland elections are not direct (which is why they are not on our big map). Politics – and conflict – throughout Somalia is largely based on clans, but efforts have been made to move toward a politics based on political parties. The terrorist group al-Shabab remains a menace.
Jubaland is rich in natural resources, raising the stakes of the election. Kismayo, the capital of Jubaland, this month saw the biggest terrorist attack since an action led by Kenyan soldiers ousted al-Shabab from the city in 2012.
Fred Oluoch and Abdulkadir Khalif, The East African: “Somalia-based Islamic insurgency al-Shabab are believed to be trying to influence or scuttle the 2020 presidential election, even as the US increases air bombardment to weaken them. Two weeks ago, Al Shabaab ordered all the elders and delegates who choose the members of the federal legislature and the state councils to register with the group.”
New Delhi Times: “[Militant groups] warned Somali clan and sub-clan elders to not participate in any way in upcoming election processes in either the semi-autonomous Somali regional states or the next federal elections, the latter of which is scheduled for 2020. As per the tradition, clan elders currently select candidates for the regional and federal parliament elections based on the country’s ‘4.5’ system which reserves an equal number of seats for Somalia’s four large clan families, the Hawiye, Dir, Darod, and Rahanweyn (1 to 1) and .5 seats (half a seat) to every 1 for the clan families to a collective group of minority clan and ethnic groups.”
Matthew Weaver, The Guardian: “Mayor of Mogadishu dies as result of al-Shabaab attack. Abdirahman Omar Osman was a naturalised Briton who once worked as a council housing manager in London….Al-Shabaab was chased out of Mogadishu in 2011, but the capital is still hit regularly by the militants, who retained control of large swaths of the countryside.”
Mohammed Omar Ahmed, Bloomberg: “Somalian authorities executed two al-Shabaab militants who were convicted for a December attack that killed at least 13 people in the capital, Mogadishu.”
AP: “Somalia’s President Gives Up US Citizenship, But Unclear Why”
Aggrey Mutambo, The East African: “‘It will boost his campaign and earn him political lifeline,’ [commentator Dr Abdiwahab Sheikh] argued, referring to the upcoming elections in 2020. No Somali president in this transition period has managed to be voted back into power.”
Somali Affairs: “Somalia’s Wadajir opposition party leader, Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame, has said that the militant group Al-Shabaab has infiltrated security and financial institutions in the country.”
Standard Digital (Kenya): “With three weeks to the elections, Jubaland has seen heightened political temperatures as political leaders and former army chiefs battle the end of Sheikh Ahmed Madobe’s eight-year reign.”
The Nation (Kenya): “He was among elders selecting members for Jubaland’s assembly – these MPs are then due to elect the regional president later this month.”
Stratfor: “Somalia: Ethiopian Forces Take Control of Positions in Kismayo [capital of Jubaland] After Kenyan Troops Withdraw”
Dalsan Radio: “Somalia: Why Kenya Is Interested in Jubaland Elections”
Botswana Parliamentary – October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Botswana, the world’s second-largest producer of diamonds, is a stable democracy with regular free, fair, credible elections. In 2018, President Ian Khama stepped down exactly 10 years after his inauguration, in keeping with the constitutional limit of two terms in office (his predecessor had done the same thing). Mokgweetsi Masisi, the former vice president, is filling the role of the presidency until after the elections, when the National Assembly will choose a new president. Khama’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – founded by his father, Seretse Khama, protagonist of the 2017 film A United Kingdom – has dominated politics since independence in 1966, but soon after leaving office, Khama left the BDP to form a new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front. The split could open up debate on actual policy, or it could devolve into a personal power struggle.
The National Assembly will elect a new president following the parliamentary elections.
Joel Konopo, amaBhungane: “Botswana: Turmoil in Africa’s ‘model democracy’”
Judd Devermont, Mail and Guardian: “Youthful politicians come of age”
Mozambique Presidential, Legislative, and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since then until an August 2019 peace accord). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.
RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities.Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth. In the upcoming elections, in addition to voting for president, citizens will elect provincial governors directly for the first time – previously, they had been appointed by the president.
Al Jazeera: ”Mozambique‘s president and the leader of Renamo, a former rebel movement-turned-opposition party, have signed a peace accord to end armed hostilities. Thousands of Renamo’s remaining fighters are disarming just weeks before a visit by Pope Francis and a national election scheduled for mid-October that will test the now-political rivals’ new resolve.”
Payce Madden, Brookings Institution: “The peace deal was signed in Gorongosa, a Renamo stronghold in central Mozambique.”
Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – Early 2020 (delayed from October 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.
Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat. The political crisis has an ethnic dimension.
Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections, which are likely delayed following a July vote by the National Assembly to extend its term in office (the National Assembly’s second extension). The mandates were set to expire October 29, 2019 and have been extended for two months, so the elections that had been due in October most likely will not happen before 2020.
Yuhniwo Ngenge, Al Jazeera: “Cameroon’s many fault lines: It is not just the Anglophone conflict that is threatening the stability of the Cameroonian state.”
Journal du Cameroun: “The Social Democratic Front has announced an ordinary meeting of the party’s National Executive Committee, NEC to hold in Douala on August 10.
Though the order of the day was not revealed, sources say the party is set to continue discussing whether it will participate at upcoming elections in the present security context in the North West and South West regions.”
Madagascar Communal Elections – October 28, 2019 (postponed – no new date set)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Madagascar’s recent parliamentary and presidential elections were hotly-contested and turbulent, and were followed by protests. The mandates of the current communal elected officials expire in September 2019.
RFI (in French): “Madagascar: strong reactions after postponement of communal elections”
Guinea-Bissau Presidential – November 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
In March 2019, Guinea-Bissau finally held long-delayed legislative elections. The ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) won 47 out of 102 seats, but made deals with three smaller parties to form a coalition with 54 seats. Prone to coups (most recently in 2012), no elected leader has served a full term since independence from Portugal. The country remains in a political crisis, with President José Mário Vaz (known as Jomav) in a feud with his own party (PAIGC). Vaz plans to run for re-election. Sometimes dubbed “the world’s first narco-state,” it risks once again becoming a hub for drug traffickers.
APA News: “The filing of nomination papers for the November 24 2019 presidential election in Guinea Bissau, begins on Thursday, and ends on September 25, the country’s Supreme Court (STJ) announced in a statement to APA.”
The Voice (Gambia): “Law enforcement officials from The Gambia, Senegal and Guinea Bissau have signed an agreement aimed at combating drug trafficking and other organised crimes along their borders.”
RFI (in Portuguese): “Could Guinea-Bissau have finally discovered oil?”
Mali Parliamentary – Due June 2019 (postponed indefinitely) and Regional and Local – Due November 2019 (delays likely)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Preparations for the upcoming elections, which have been delayed multiple times, are happening in the context of insurgency and widespread intercommunal violence. It is one of the deadliest missions for UN peacekeepers. In 2018, President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta (often referred to as IBK) won second term amid allegations of fraud and instances of violence. Islamist groups killed at least three election workers, burned polling stations, and intimidated voters. Regional elections were originally scheduled for December 2017 but have been delayed due to objections by insurgents. Legislative elections were originally scheduled for October 2018, and then delayed to June 2019, and now are delayed indefinitely.
AFP: “Armed groups of the rival Fulani and Dogan ethnic communities in central Mali have signed accords to ‘cease hostilities,’ during a visit by the country’s prime minister, official sources said Monday.”
Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Following three years of protests, Ethiopia’s ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners and opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful. However, violence could threaten Abiy’s reforms.
In the 2015 elections – which were not free and fair – the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats.
Yonas Abiye, The Reporter (Ethiopia): “With uncertainty surrounding the upcoming general election, The House of People’s Representatives (HPR) has passed the decision to postpone local elections and the election of the Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa city councils,which it has done for the second time,to be carried out along with the upcoming 6th General Elections scheduled for May 2020.”
Morris Kiruga, The Africa Report: “Ethiopia’s newly constituted election board says it will hold a referendum for the Sidama Zone in five months, more than a year after the community formally requested statehood. The referendum for what could be the Horn of Africa country’s tenth federal state will most likely accelerate similar demands by other ethnic groups.”
Burundi Presidential and Legislative – May 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
In 2015, President Pierre Nkurunziza ran for a third term, which critics said was unconstitutional. Nkurunziza’s decision sparked a political crisis. The opposition boycotted the election. Nkurunziza won, but the election was marred by violence and a coup attempt. In 2018, Nkurunziza said he would step down in 2020. Burundi’s 12-year civil war ended in 2005, but violence and authoritarianism have been on the rise. Many Burundians are nervous about the upcoming polls.
BBC: “More than 10 offices of the Burundi’s main opposition party have blyeen set alight or defaced with human faeces over the last two months, a party official has told the BBC. Therence Manirambona, the spokesperson for the National Congress for Freedom (CNL), said it was part of efforts to discourage democracy and terrify the opposition ahead of 2020 presidential elections.”
CPJ: “The Committee to Protect Journalists today joined 40 other civil society organizations in calling on member and observer states of the U.N. Human Rights Council to extend for a year the mandate of the Commission of Inquiry on Burundi.”
Central African Republic General – December 27, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
The Central African Republic (CAR) faces a humanitarian crisis and a crisis of governance. Russia has ramped up its political and military involvement in exchange for mining rights. Last year, three Russian journalists from a newspaper critical of the Kremlin were killed in the country while they were investigating the role of Russian military contractor in exploiting the CAR’s mineral wealth.
RFI: “In CAR, politics is in turmoil. Everything seems to revolve around the general elections scheduled for December 27, 2020.”
Uganda General – February 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Partly Free this year) – Government Type: Presidential Republic
President Yoweri Museveni has held power since 1986 and looks likely to seek a sixth term. Musaveni is seen as an ally to Western governments on counterterrorism issues, despite concerns about human rights and civil liberties.
Musaveni’s National Resistance Movement (NRM), an authoritarian nationalist party, was originally a militia involved in the struggle to topple the government in 1986. In the last presidential election in 2016 (which was marred by an uneven playing field and government use of state resources and security services for political purposes), which wasn Kizza Besigye of the main opposition center-right Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) won 35.6 percent, coming in second. NRM holds 293 out of 426 seats in parliament, and FDC holds 36 (other opposition parties hold 21).
Elias Biryabarema, Reuters: “A Ugandan musician-turned-legislator who is seeking to challenge veteran President Yoweri Museveni said on Monday a supporter and fellow singer had died after being abducted and tortured, in what police are treating as a homicide.”
Reuters: “A prominent Ugandan academic has been sentenced to 18 months in prison after being found guilty of cyberharassment for a series of Facebook posts criticizing President Yoweri Museveni, including calling him ‘a pair of buttocks.’”
Sudan Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
In April, nonviolent demonstrations ousted Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir. In June 2019, around the 30th anniversary of Tiananmen Square, Sudanese troops massacred citizens protesting the regime.
BBC: “Sudan’s ruling military council and main opposition coalition have signed a constitutional declaration which will pave the way for the formation of a transitional government.”
Tom Wilson, Financial Times: “The agreement fleshes out a political deal signed last month under which a new sovereign council will be established to run the country for three years until elections are held. The body will be headed by a member of the military for the first 21 months before the leadership rotates to a civilian. A new legislature and a technocratic, civilian cabinet will also be set up.”
Justin Lynch, Foreign Policy: “How Sudan’s Military Overcame the Revolution: Sudan’s protesters wanted to overthrow their president and his regime. They were only half-successful.”
Past Elections
Zambia, Katuba By-Election – July 30, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Zambia’s next general election is due in 2021, but a by-election in Katuba, in the west of the country, because the incumbent – Patricia Mwashingwele of the opposition United Party for National Development (UPND) – died. The governing center-left Patriotic Front (PF) has 89 out of 166 in the unicameral National Assembly, and the main opposition liberal UPND has 58 seats. The 2016 presidential election was close – PF’s Edgar Lungu ultimately prevailed in a poll that was marred by tension and allegations of vote rigging but ultimately judged credible.
Chris Phiri, Zambia Reports: “OPINION: UPND Retains Katuba With Toil….These by-elections have shown us something that some people wouldn’t want to publicly admit. This is that the ruling Patriotic Front are the real victors at the end of the day!”
Lusaka Times: “The Patriotic Front has scooped all the local government by-elections held on Tuesday. PF emerged victorious in Lubwa, Lwingishi, Mangango and Kanabulimbu wards.”
Liberia By-Elections – July 29, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
When President George Weah, a former footballer, was elected in 2017, Liberia saw its first peaceful transition of power since 1944. The country holds elections to the Senate in 2020.
Rodney Sieh, Front Page Africa: “Ruling CDC Concedes Senatorial Race to Opposition Dillon; But Claims District 15 Legislative Seat Win
David S. Menjor and Hannah N. Geterminah, Liberian Observer: “Though Friday’s vote count put her in the lead ahead of her rival Abu Kamara, albeit by a rather narrow margin, Ms. Telia Urey, candidate of the four opposition collaborating political parties in the just ended representative by-election in Montserrado County District #15, has said she will not accept any result associated with ‘fraud’ from authorities of the National Elections Commission(NEC) expect the Commission conducts re-run of the election in the district, free of any political influence.”
Alpha Daffae Senkpeni, Front Page Africa: “By-Elections Results Show Diminishing Popularity of Liberia’s President in His Stronghold”
VOA: “Clashes erupted Wednesday in the capital of Liberia, Monrovia, during a protest against President George Weah, then in the afternoon when announcing the likely victory of an opposition candidate at a senatorial by-election.”
R. Joyclyn Wea, The New Republic Liberia: “The Government of Liberia is expected to prosecute fifteen anti-government protesters following their arrest on Wednesday, July 31, 2019.”
Mauritania Presidential – June 22, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Mauritania’s incumbent president, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, came to power in a military coup in 2009 and the country is rated “not free” by Freedom House, but some hope that political space could be opening up, albeit slowly. While most believed that the ruling Union for the Republic party’s candidate, Defense Minister Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, would win (and he was indeed declared the winner), opposition candidates, including anti-slavery activist Biram Dah Abeid, participated. This contrasts with the 2014 presidential election, which the opposition boycotted. There are concerns about the electoral process and the lack of international observers.
Abdur Rahman Alfa Shaban, AfricaNews with AP: “Mauritania’s new president has taken the oath of office, completing the West African nation’s first peaceful transfer of power.”
North Africa Post: “Ghazouani won June 22 elections with 52 per cent of the votes. The opposition contested the victory which was marked by riots and several days of internet blackout. In his inaugural speech, President Ghouzani said the Mauritanian people had written an important page in the country’s history and confirmed the maturity of its political system.”
Al Jazeera: “A blogger in Mauritania who drew international attention after he was sentenced to death over blasphemy has been released, his lawyer and campaign group Reporters Without Borders (RSF) said. Cheikh Ould Mohamed Ould Mkhaitir, 36, was sentenced to death in 2014 over a Facebook post about Islam, but was then given a jail term on appeal.”
Amnesty International: “Mauritania’s new President must commit to addressing the country’s appalling human rights record, by taking meaningful measures to end the scourge of slavery and protect human rights defenders and activists from arbitrary arrest, torture and other ill-treatment, Amnesty International said today, as Mohamed Ould Ghazouani prepared to be sworn into office.”
Malawi Tripartite (Presidential, Legislative, Local) – May 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Malawi24: “Malawi Government through the Attorney General Kalekeni Kaphale has asked the High Court to ban post-election demonstrations. Kaphale has applied for an injunction to stop demonstrations against the outcome of the May 21 elections until the conclusion of the presidential election court case.”
Benin Parliamentary – April 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Benin was previously a model democracy in the region, but the April 2019 parliamentary elections changed that. Opposition candidates were barred from running, and security forces opened fire on protesters.
AFP: “A court in Benin on Friday handed a top opposition politician a suspended six-month jail term over campaign breaches and banned him from standing for elections for five years, judicial sources said. Former prime minister Lionel Zinsou, who lives in France, was found guilty of using false documents and “exceeding” spending limits in his 2016 bid for the West African nation’s presidency.”
Democratic Republic of the Congo General – December 30, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
The DRC’s December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu. When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi. The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country, but both have returned.
The Economist: “Ebola is a reminder of why the world should pay attention to Congo….Most donors do not want to reward a stolen election. But no one wants to see the collapse of a state seven times the size of Germany at the heart of Africa, either. It is too early to say whether Mr Tshisekedi’s regime will be as corrupt as its predecessors, but it might not be.”
Christophe Le Bec, The Africa Report: “Six months after the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) presidential elections, discussions on the extractive sector are still on the table”
William Clowes, Bloomberg: “Former Democratic Republic of Congo President Joseph Kabila will retain control of the key mining portfolio under an agreement with his successor to share cabinet posts between their coalitions.”
David Bruckmeier, African Arguments: “The eastern DRC’s most active rebel group just got a bit more dangerous: Is the ADF rebel group now a province of so-called Islamic State?”
The Gambia Presidential – December 1, 2016 and Legislative – April 6, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
In December 2016, The Gambia began a remarkable transition to democracy. Citizens removed dictator Yahya Jammeh peacefully, via the ballot box, and began the process of establishing a free society.
APA News: “Why is anger spilling into Gambian streets? Last week witnessed a series of wildcat protests in the streets of The Gambia as political tensions mount four months ahead of the country’s so-called hour of truth in December.”
Emil Touray, AFP: “Outrage in Gambia over claims ex-president ordered killings: Now the wall of silence around Jammeh’s 22-year reign of fear is starting to crack, and information — if not yet justice — is starting to flow.”
Abdoulaye Bah, Global Voices: “The Gambia’s truth commission continues to confront abuses under past president’s regime: ‘Truth-telling is not a sport for victors and losers’”
Equatorial Guinea Presidential – April 24, 2016
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
AFP: “Equatorial Guinea’s opposition has called for international sanctions against President Teodoro Obiang Nguema’s regime as the ruler widely criticised for rights abuses marks four decades in power.”
The Year Ahead: Africa
Guinea legislative (overdue – mandates of current legislators expired January 13 – date not set for new elections); Chad legislative (originally due in 2015 but have been delayed several times – unclear when they will. actually happen); Togo local by-elections (August 15); Namibia Oshakati East by-election (August 24); Zimbabwe by-elections (September Botswana parliamentary (October); Cameroon parliamentary (due October but delayed – new date not set); Mozambique presidential, legislative, provincial (October 15); Madagascar communal (due October 28 but postponed – new date not set); Somalia, Somaliland congressional and local (November 1, 2019 – tentative); Guinea-Bissau presidential (November 24); Namibia presidential and legislative (November 27); Mauritius legislative (December); Senegal local (December 1); Ethiopia parliamentary (May); Burundi presidential and legislative (May 20); Mali Parliamentary (due June but postponed indefinitely)
Deposed Zimbabwe strongman Robert Mugabe, who has been hospitalized. He is 95 years old. Photo credit: Flickr/Al Jazeera English (CC BY-SA 2.0)
21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.
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Category: This Week Tags: Benin, Botswana, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Somalia, Sudan, Togo, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe