Upcoming Elections
Guatemala General, Second Round – August 11, 2019 (first round was June 16)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
These elections are taking place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.
In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.
Norma Torres, Washington Post: “If the next elected president of Guatemala opts to protect a corrupt system, the United States needs to be prepared to respond. That person needs to think twice before going after independent agencies that are trying to strengthen the rule of law.”
Nick Miroff, Washington Post: “Trump officials signed a major immigration deal with Guatemala. Now they’re selling it to Guatemalans.”
Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
The election will be competitive, and some polls have shown that the Conservatives would beat incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals if the election were held today. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.
Marco Vigliotti, iPolitics: “In the run-up to October’s election, the Tories and Liberals are touting their respective fundraising prowess, as both parties claim to have attracted record-breaking numbers of donations over the past three months.”
Christian Paas-Lang, The Canadian Press: “At least 20 people donated max to both Liberals and Conservatives in 2018”
Kelsey Johnson, Reuters: “Canada’s top elections official still wants Oct. 21 vote despite court challenge”
Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 (Primaries August 11, 2019) and Provincial – Throughout the year (next up: Santa Cruz on August 11, 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
On the presidential front: Incumbent Mauricio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.
Brendan O’Boyle, Americas Quarterly: “Three Reasons Argentina’s Primary Matters”
Patrick Gillespie and Jorgelina Do Rosario, Bloomberg: “Polls in Argentina show a very close, polarized race between President Mauricio Macri and opposition candidate Alberto Fernandez before the August 11 primary vote.”
Gabriel Burin, Reuters: “A survey of 19 economists polled by Reuters indicated that left-leaning Alberto Fernandez’s six-point lead over Macri would spook investors, worried conservative Macri would be unable to overtake his rival in time for general elections in October.”
Simeon Tegel, Washington Post: “Argentina’s Cristina Kirchner, facing corruption allegations, mounts unlikely comeback”
Andres Oppenheimer, Miami Herald: “Argentina will become a hopeless country if Cristina Fernandez wins”
Daniela Flamini and Cristina Tardáguila, Poynter: “It might be more difficult to spread false information in four South American countries. Fact-checkers in Uruguay, Bolivia, Argentina and Brazil have come together to form national coalitions and fight mis/disinformation in teams. Facebook posts and messages spread via WhatsApp are their main focus, as many of these nations are facing elections soon.”
Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections.
Adriaan Alsema, Colombia Reports: “Colombia’s opposition leader Gustavo Petro lost one of his top aides on Monday for endorsing a Bogota mayoral candidate accused of domestic abuse. The resignation of Maria Mercedes Maldonado could be the first of many after Petro ignored the request of more than 70 female members of the progressive Humane Colombia party who had publicly asked him not to endorse former journalist Holman Morris.”
Uruguay General – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Nicknamed the “Switzerland of South America,” Uruguay is wealthier than the its neighbors and politically neutral. The three major parties are the center-left and social democratic Frente Amplio (Broad Front) coalition, the center-right National Party (PN), and the liberal Colorado Party (PC). FA holds a razor-thin majority in the General Assembly, with 16 out of 31 Senate seats and 50 out of 99 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. It has had a majority in the General Assembly and held the presidency since 2005. President Tabaré Vázquez, who was elected in 2014 and had also been president from 2005 to 2010, is not able to run this year because the constitution does not allow consecutive terms. Corruption allegations and slow economic growth could hurt FA’s chances in these elections. During the June 30, 2019 primaries – in which voters also express a preferred party – FA received only 23.6 percent of the vote, with PN winning 41.6 and PC picking up 16.8.
AFP: “Uruguay’s ruling Frente Amplio coalition has suffered a major schism just three months from presidential elections in a row over iconic former president Jose Mujica branding traditional ally Venezuela a ‘dictatorship.’”
Haiti Local and Partial Parliamentary (one third of the Senate and the entire lower house) – Due October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Haiti is in a political crisis. Political chaos related to allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. A commission found that the election had indeed been fraudulent, and ordered a re-reun, which had only 18 percent turnout. President Moïse Jovenel was elected with 56 percent of ballots cast. The opposition alleged fraud once again, but an election tribunal conducted an investigation and certified the results. Violent protesters have demanded the president’s ouster. The 2015-2016 parliamentary elections were also marred by significant fraud. The country is currently without a government as opposition lawmakers have blocked multiple attempts to ratify a new prime minister.
CMC: “Parliament To Debate Motion To Indict Haitian President For Treason….Political observers in the French-speaking Caribbean Community (CARICOM) country say they don’t expect the motion, which had been submitted by 21 legislators last month, to find support in the Lower House, given the majority position enjoyed by legislators linked to Moise’s party.”
Allie Torgan, CNN: “Creating an oasis of hope in one of Haiti’s most dangerous neighborhoods”
Dominica Legislative – December 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit’s center-left Dominica Labour Party (DLP) has been in government since 2000. DLP lost seats following the 2014 parliamentary elections, but with 15 out of 21 seats still has a substantial majority. The main opposition United Workers’ Party (UWP) led by Lennox Linton has six seats. Home of the famous Boiling Lake, the world’s second-largest hot spring, rare birds, and natural beauty, the country has the potential to develop its tourism industry, but the lack of a major international airport has impeded growth. The debate over whether to build one has been going on for decades, and is a major issue in the upcoming elections. Skerrit has beenslow-rolling a decision on whether and how to build one, and some oppose the idea entirely.
Dominica News Online: “President of Dominica, His Excellency Charles Savarin has called on Dominicans to be peaceful and stay united for the upcoming general elections in a manner consistent with international best practices. He made the announcement during the presentation on Tuesday, of a $1.02 billion budget by Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit.”
Guyana Snap Parliamentary – November 2019 (tentative – delays possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil. In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation has delayed the process. Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese.
Upstream: “Election chair choice boosts Guyana poll prospects: President David Granger and opposition leader Bharrat Jagdeo agree on retired judge to lead electoral commission, with polls likely to take place this year”
Ralph Ramkarran, Starbroek News: “The president is transporting Guyana into a dystopian reality”
BNAmericas: “Take a number: Guyana oil push drawing newcomers”
David Blackmon, Forbes: “World’s Largest Recent Offshore Oil Discovery Progresses Amid Political Tensions, Disputes: Funding has poured into the country and made Guyana the fastest-growing economy in the Caribbean. But the long-running political battle is diverting attention from critical needs, such as the development of a revenue-management framework and plans to overhaul the nation’s infrastructure, education system and healthcare network.”
Peru Presidential and Legislative – April 2021 (President wants to move them to April 19, 2020)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Marco Aquino, Reuters: “Peruvian President Martin Vizcarra on Sunday proposed ending the legislative and presidential terms of office a year earlier than scheduled and holding elections in 2020 in the face of opposition to his efforts to pass anti-corruption measures.”
The Economist: “[Vizcarra] became president 16 months ago, when his predecessor, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, was forced out of office over allegations that he had helped secure public contracts for Odebrecht, a Brazilian construction firm that has bribed officials and politicians across Latin America. Mr Vizcarra has spent most of that time trying to reform a political and judicial system so rotten that all living former presidents are under house arrest, in jail or trying to avoid that fate.”
Frances Jenner, Latin America Reports: “What is Peru’s president doing to fight corruption?President Martín Vizcarra is struggling with Congress to pass Constitutional reforms that will combat corruption.”
Venezuela – Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Venezuela is currently in a political crisis following disputed presidential elections in May 2018. Incumbent Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez’s protege, was declared the winner, but the elections were widely denounced as illegitimate and the opposition mostly boycotted the polls. Because Venezuela’s constitution stipulates that the leader of the National Assembly (Venezuela’s only institution with a modicum of democratic legitimacy) becomes interim president if the office is vacant, many of the world’s free democracies recognized Juan Guaidó as interim president until the country holds new elections. Maduro continues to cling to power and his forces are violently cracking down on the opposition. The regime has deployed death squads. However, the opposition perseveres.
The country is also in a humanitarian crisis. The capital, Caracas, is one of the most violent cities in the world. Hyperinflation has resulted in 90 percent of Venezuelans being unable to afford sufficient food, and as many as 3.4 million people (more than 10 percent of the population) have fled since 2015.
AFP: “Representatives of Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro and opposition leader Juan Guaido ‘reiterated their willingness’ to resolve the country’s political crisis during talks in Barbados, mediator Norway said on Friday [August 2]. The delegates arrived on Wednesday for a third round of talks in Barbados in negotiations that originally began in Oslo in May.”
Past Elections
Belize Village Elections – June 23-July 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Belize is dominated by two parties: Prime Minister Dean Barrow’s center-right United Democratic Party, which has been in government since 2008, and the center-left People’s United Party (PUP), which played a major role in negotiating Belize’s independence and dominated politics until the 1980s. Belize has general elections coming up in November 2020.
Breaking Belize News: “Both major parties claim victory in village council elections”
Rowland A. Parks, Amandala: “Hundreds of seats needed to be filled to begin the new 3-year term of the village councils across the length and breadth of Belize, and the two main political parties fielded hundreds of village council candidates and prospective chairmen, as they went head to head, each fighting to come out on top.”
Brazil General – October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Last year’s elections in Brazil swept controversial right-wing populist firebrand Jair Bolsonaro into the presidency, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country.
Alex Hochuli, The Brazilian Report: “Is there room in Brazilian politics for a moderate centrist? Brely into the second half of his first year in office, and jockeying for position to replace Jair Bolsonaro has already begun. Most of the activity is on the center-right, with São Paulo Governor João Doria already being widely discussed as a possible 2022 candidate.”
Sintia Radu, U.S. News and World Report: “How Digital Disinformation Spread Through the 2018 Latin American Elections: Last year’s elections in Mexico, Colombia and Brazil are a lesson on digital disinformation that needs to be fought, say experts.”
Daniel Peres, openDemocracy: “Brazil’s democracy under threat – the attack against universities as a space for critical thinking. Democracy in Brazil is hanging by a thread. The government’s ideologues are not only trying to silence all critical thinking, they are engaged in re-writing history.”
Mexico General – July 1, 2018
Freedom House Rating – Partly Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Left-wing populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador (frequently called AMLO) and his MORENA party won the presidency and majorities in both houses of Congress in a watershed election in 2018, defeating Mexico’s two previously-dominant parties.
León Krauze, Washington Post: “How AMLO’s war against independent institutions weakens Mexico”
David Agren, The Guardian: “Mexico president accused of hypocrisy for backing tough anti-protest laws. Andrés Manuel López Obrador – who made his name as a protester – backs laws that could see activists jailed for 20 years.”
Paul Imison, World Politics Review: “AMLO Is Struggling to Match High Expectations With Harsh Realities in Mexico”
Andrea Lobo, World Socialist Web Site: “French populist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the Unsubmissive France (LFI) party, spent two weeks in Mexico in high level meetings in which he praised president Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) as the realization of his nationalist program, which he has dubbed the ‘Citizens’ revolution.’”
Brendan O’Boyle, Americas Quarterly: “Pedro Kumamoto on the Future of Independent Politics in Mexico: An interview with 29-year-old former legislator Pedro Kumamoto as he gets set to found a new political party in Mexico.”
Paraguay General – April 22, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
President Mario Abdo Benítez won the 2018 presidential elections with 48.96 percent of the vote. Abdo’s conservative Colorado Party, which has dominated Paraguay’s politics for a long time, holds a majority in the lower house of Paraguay’s bicameral National Congress, and a plurality in the upper house. T
Daniela Desantis, Reuters: “Paraguayan President Mario Abdo said on Wednesday he ‘accepts the fight’ after some lawmakers announced they will push to impeach him following the scandal over the signing of an energy policy with Brazil, which they said went against the country’s sovereignty.”
Americas This Week – August 3, 2019
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Last Updated: August 19, 2019 by 21votes
August 3, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore the Americas on Saturdays. Click the map pins.
Guatemala General, Second Round – August 11, 2019 (first round was June 16)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
These elections are taking place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.
In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.
Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
The election will be competitive, and some polls have shown that the Conservatives would beat incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals if the election were held today. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.
Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 (Primaries August 11, 2019) and Provincial – Throughout the year (next up: Santa Cruz on August 11, 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
On the presidential front: Incumbent Mauricio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.
Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections.
Uruguay General – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Nicknamed the “Switzerland of South America,” Uruguay is wealthier than the its neighbors and politically neutral. The three major parties are the center-left and social democratic Frente Amplio (Broad Front) coalition, the center-right National Party (PN), and the liberal Colorado Party (PC). FA holds a razor-thin majority in the General Assembly, with 16 out of 31 Senate seats and 50 out of 99 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. It has had a majority in the General Assembly and held the presidency since 2005. President Tabaré Vázquez, who was elected in 2014 and had also been president from 2005 to 2010, is not able to run this year because the constitution does not allow consecutive terms. Corruption allegations and slow economic growth could hurt FA’s chances in these elections. During the June 30, 2019 primaries – in which voters also express a preferred party – FA received only 23.6 percent of the vote, with PN winning 41.6 and PC picking up 16.8.
Haiti Local and Partial Parliamentary (one third of the Senate and the entire lower house) – Due October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Haiti is in a political crisis. Political chaos related to allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. A commission found that the election had indeed been fraudulent, and ordered a re-reun, which had only 18 percent turnout. President Moïse Jovenel was elected with 56 percent of ballots cast. The opposition alleged fraud once again, but an election tribunal conducted an investigation and certified the results. Violent protesters have demanded the president’s ouster. The 2015-2016 parliamentary elections were also marred by significant fraud. The country is currently without a government as opposition lawmakers have blocked multiple attempts to ratify a new prime minister.
Dominica Legislative – December 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit’s center-left Dominica Labour Party (DLP) has been in government since 2000. DLP lost seats following the 2014 parliamentary elections, but with 15 out of 21 seats still has a substantial majority. The main opposition United Workers’ Party (UWP) led by Lennox Linton has six seats. Home of the famous Boiling Lake, the world’s second-largest hot spring, rare birds, and natural beauty, the country has the potential to develop its tourism industry, but the lack of a major international airport has impeded growth. The debate over whether to build one has been going on for decades, and is a major issue in the upcoming elections. Skerrit has beenslow-rolling a decision on whether and how to build one, and some oppose the idea entirely.
Guyana Snap Parliamentary – November 2019 (tentative - delays possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil. In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation has delayed the process. Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese.
Peru Presidential and Legislative - April 2021 (President wants to move them to April 19, 2020)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Venezuela – Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Venezuela is currently in a political crisis following disputed presidential elections in May 2018. Incumbent Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez’s protege, was declared the winner, but the elections were widely denounced as illegitimate and the opposition mostly boycotted the polls. Because Venezuela’s constitution stipulates that the leader of the National Assembly (Venezuela’s only institution with a modicum of democratic legitimacy) becomes interim president if the office is vacant, many of the world’s free democracies recognized Juan Guaidó as interim president until the country holds new elections. Maduro continues to cling to power and his forces are violently cracking down on the opposition. The regime has deployed death squads. However, the opposition perseveres.
The country is also in a humanitarian crisis. The capital, Caracas, is one of the most violent cities in the world. Hyperinflation has resulted in 90 percent of Venezuelans being unable to afford sufficient food, and as many as 3.4 million people (more than 10 percent of the population) have fled since 2015.
Belize Village Elections – June 23-July 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Belize is dominated by two parties: Prime Minister Dean Barrow’s center-right United Democratic Party, which has been in government since 2008, and the center-left People’s United Party (PUP), which played a major role in negotiating Belize’s independence and dominated politics until the 1980s. Belize has general elections coming up in November 2020.
Brazil General – October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Last year’s elections in Brazil swept controversial right-wing populist firebrand Jair Bolsonaro into the presidency, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country.
Mexico General – July 1, 2018
Freedom House Rating – Partly Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Left-wing populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador (frequently called AMLO) and his MORENA party won the presidency and majorities in both houses of Congress in a watershed election in 2018, defeating Mexico’s two previously-dominant parties.
Paraguay General - April 22, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Upcoming Elections
Guatemala General, Second Round – August 11, 2019 (first round was June 16)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
These elections are taking place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.
In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.
Norma Torres, Washington Post: “If the next elected president of Guatemala opts to protect a corrupt system, the United States needs to be prepared to respond. That person needs to think twice before going after independent agencies that are trying to strengthen the rule of law.”
Nick Miroff, Washington Post: “Trump officials signed a major immigration deal with Guatemala. Now they’re selling it to Guatemalans.”
Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
The election will be competitive, and some polls have shown that the Conservatives would beat incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals if the election were held today. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.
Marco Vigliotti, iPolitics: “In the run-up to October’s election, the Tories and Liberals are touting their respective fundraising prowess, as both parties claim to have attracted record-breaking numbers of donations over the past three months.”
Christian Paas-Lang, The Canadian Press: “At least 20 people donated max to both Liberals and Conservatives in 2018”
Kelsey Johnson, Reuters: “Canada’s top elections official still wants Oct. 21 vote despite court challenge”
Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 (Primaries August 11, 2019) and Provincial – Throughout the year (next up: Santa Cruz on August 11, 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
On the presidential front: Incumbent Mauricio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.
Brendan O’Boyle, Americas Quarterly: “Three Reasons Argentina’s Primary Matters”
Patrick Gillespie and Jorgelina Do Rosario, Bloomberg: “Polls in Argentina show a very close, polarized race between President Mauricio Macri and opposition candidate Alberto Fernandez before the August 11 primary vote.”
Gabriel Burin, Reuters: “A survey of 19 economists polled by Reuters indicated that left-leaning Alberto Fernandez’s six-point lead over Macri would spook investors, worried conservative Macri would be unable to overtake his rival in time for general elections in October.”
Simeon Tegel, Washington Post: “Argentina’s Cristina Kirchner, facing corruption allegations, mounts unlikely comeback”
Andres Oppenheimer, Miami Herald: “Argentina will become a hopeless country if Cristina Fernandez wins”
Daniela Flamini and Cristina Tardáguila, Poynter: “It might be more difficult to spread false information in four South American countries. Fact-checkers in Uruguay, Bolivia, Argentina and Brazil have come together to form national coalitions and fight mis/disinformation in teams. Facebook posts and messages spread via WhatsApp are their main focus, as many of these nations are facing elections soon.”
Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections.
Adriaan Alsema, Colombia Reports: “Colombia’s opposition leader Gustavo Petro lost one of his top aides on Monday for endorsing a Bogota mayoral candidate accused of domestic abuse. The resignation of Maria Mercedes Maldonado could be the first of many after Petro ignored the request of more than 70 female members of the progressive Humane Colombia party who had publicly asked him not to endorse former journalist Holman Morris.”
Uruguay General – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Nicknamed the “Switzerland of South America,” Uruguay is wealthier than the its neighbors and politically neutral. The three major parties are the center-left and social democratic Frente Amplio (Broad Front) coalition, the center-right National Party (PN), and the liberal Colorado Party (PC). FA holds a razor-thin majority in the General Assembly, with 16 out of 31 Senate seats and 50 out of 99 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. It has had a majority in the General Assembly and held the presidency since 2005. President Tabaré Vázquez, who was elected in 2014 and had also been president from 2005 to 2010, is not able to run this year because the constitution does not allow consecutive terms. Corruption allegations and slow economic growth could hurt FA’s chances in these elections. During the June 30, 2019 primaries – in which voters also express a preferred party – FA received only 23.6 percent of the vote, with PN winning 41.6 and PC picking up 16.8.
AFP: “Uruguay’s ruling Frente Amplio coalition has suffered a major schism just three months from presidential elections in a row over iconic former president Jose Mujica branding traditional ally Venezuela a ‘dictatorship.’”
Haiti Local and Partial Parliamentary (one third of the Senate and the entire lower house) – Due October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Haiti is in a political crisis. Political chaos related to allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. A commission found that the election had indeed been fraudulent, and ordered a re-reun, which had only 18 percent turnout. President Moïse Jovenel was elected with 56 percent of ballots cast. The opposition alleged fraud once again, but an election tribunal conducted an investigation and certified the results. Violent protesters have demanded the president’s ouster. The 2015-2016 parliamentary elections were also marred by significant fraud. The country is currently without a government as opposition lawmakers have blocked multiple attempts to ratify a new prime minister.
CMC: “Parliament To Debate Motion To Indict Haitian President For Treason….Political observers in the French-speaking Caribbean Community (CARICOM) country say they don’t expect the motion, which had been submitted by 21 legislators last month, to find support in the Lower House, given the majority position enjoyed by legislators linked to Moise’s party.”
Allie Torgan, CNN: “Creating an oasis of hope in one of Haiti’s most dangerous neighborhoods”
Dominica Legislative – December 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit’s center-left Dominica Labour Party (DLP) has been in government since 2000. DLP lost seats following the 2014 parliamentary elections, but with 15 out of 21 seats still has a substantial majority. The main opposition United Workers’ Party (UWP) led by Lennox Linton has six seats. Home of the famous Boiling Lake, the world’s second-largest hot spring, rare birds, and natural beauty, the country has the potential to develop its tourism industry, but the lack of a major international airport has impeded growth. The debate over whether to build one has been going on for decades, and is a major issue in the upcoming elections. Skerrit has beenslow-rolling a decision on whether and how to build one, and some oppose the idea entirely.
Dominica News Online: “President of Dominica, His Excellency Charles Savarin has called on Dominicans to be peaceful and stay united for the upcoming general elections in a manner consistent with international best practices. He made the announcement during the presentation on Tuesday, of a $1.02 billion budget by Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit.”
Guyana Snap Parliamentary – November 2019 (tentative – delays possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil. In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation has delayed the process. Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese.
Upstream: “Election chair choice boosts Guyana poll prospects: President David Granger and opposition leader Bharrat Jagdeo agree on retired judge to lead electoral commission, with polls likely to take place this year”
Ralph Ramkarran, Starbroek News: “The president is transporting Guyana into a dystopian reality”
BNAmericas: “Take a number: Guyana oil push drawing newcomers”
David Blackmon, Forbes: “World’s Largest Recent Offshore Oil Discovery Progresses Amid Political Tensions, Disputes: Funding has poured into the country and made Guyana the fastest-growing economy in the Caribbean. But the long-running political battle is diverting attention from critical needs, such as the development of a revenue-management framework and plans to overhaul the nation’s infrastructure, education system and healthcare network.”
Peru Presidential and Legislative – April 2021 (President wants to move them to April 19, 2020)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Marco Aquino, Reuters: “Peruvian President Martin Vizcarra on Sunday proposed ending the legislative and presidential terms of office a year earlier than scheduled and holding elections in 2020 in the face of opposition to his efforts to pass anti-corruption measures.”
The Economist: “[Vizcarra] became president 16 months ago, when his predecessor, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, was forced out of office over allegations that he had helped secure public contracts for Odebrecht, a Brazilian construction firm that has bribed officials and politicians across Latin America. Mr Vizcarra has spent most of that time trying to reform a political and judicial system so rotten that all living former presidents are under house arrest, in jail or trying to avoid that fate.”
Frances Jenner, Latin America Reports: “What is Peru’s president doing to fight corruption?President Martín Vizcarra is struggling with Congress to pass Constitutional reforms that will combat corruption.”
Venezuela – Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Venezuela is currently in a political crisis following disputed presidential elections in May 2018. Incumbent Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez’s protege, was declared the winner, but the elections were widely denounced as illegitimate and the opposition mostly boycotted the polls. Because Venezuela’s constitution stipulates that the leader of the National Assembly (Venezuela’s only institution with a modicum of democratic legitimacy) becomes interim president if the office is vacant, many of the world’s free democracies recognized Juan Guaidó as interim president until the country holds new elections. Maduro continues to cling to power and his forces are violently cracking down on the opposition. The regime has deployed death squads. However, the opposition perseveres.
The country is also in a humanitarian crisis. The capital, Caracas, is one of the most violent cities in the world. Hyperinflation has resulted in 90 percent of Venezuelans being unable to afford sufficient food, and as many as 3.4 million people (more than 10 percent of the population) have fled since 2015.
AFP: “Representatives of Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro and opposition leader Juan Guaido ‘reiterated their willingness’ to resolve the country’s political crisis during talks in Barbados, mediator Norway said on Friday [August 2]. The delegates arrived on Wednesday for a third round of talks in Barbados in negotiations that originally began in Oslo in May.”
Past Elections
Belize Village Elections – June 23-July 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Belize is dominated by two parties: Prime Minister Dean Barrow’s center-right United Democratic Party, which has been in government since 2008, and the center-left People’s United Party (PUP), which played a major role in negotiating Belize’s independence and dominated politics until the 1980s. Belize has general elections coming up in November 2020.
Breaking Belize News: “Both major parties claim victory in village council elections”
Rowland A. Parks, Amandala: “Hundreds of seats needed to be filled to begin the new 3-year term of the village councils across the length and breadth of Belize, and the two main political parties fielded hundreds of village council candidates and prospective chairmen, as they went head to head, each fighting to come out on top.”
Brazil General – October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Last year’s elections in Brazil swept controversial right-wing populist firebrand Jair Bolsonaro into the presidency, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country.
Alex Hochuli, The Brazilian Report: “Is there room in Brazilian politics for a moderate centrist? Brely into the second half of his first year in office, and jockeying for position to replace Jair Bolsonaro has already begun. Most of the activity is on the center-right, with São Paulo Governor João Doria already being widely discussed as a possible 2022 candidate.”
Sintia Radu, U.S. News and World Report: “How Digital Disinformation Spread Through the 2018 Latin American Elections: Last year’s elections in Mexico, Colombia and Brazil are a lesson on digital disinformation that needs to be fought, say experts.”
Daniel Peres, openDemocracy: “Brazil’s democracy under threat – the attack against universities as a space for critical thinking. Democracy in Brazil is hanging by a thread. The government’s ideologues are not only trying to silence all critical thinking, they are engaged in re-writing history.”
Mexico General – July 1, 2018
Freedom House Rating – Partly Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Left-wing populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador (frequently called AMLO) and his MORENA party won the presidency and majorities in both houses of Congress in a watershed election in 2018, defeating Mexico’s two previously-dominant parties.
León Krauze, Washington Post: “How AMLO’s war against independent institutions weakens Mexico”
David Agren, The Guardian: “Mexico president accused of hypocrisy for backing tough anti-protest laws. Andrés Manuel López Obrador – who made his name as a protester – backs laws that could see activists jailed for 20 years.”
Paul Imison, World Politics Review: “AMLO Is Struggling to Match High Expectations With Harsh Realities in Mexico”
Andrea Lobo, World Socialist Web Site: “French populist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the Unsubmissive France (LFI) party, spent two weeks in Mexico in high level meetings in which he praised president Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) as the realization of his nationalist program, which he has dubbed the ‘Citizens’ revolution.’”
Brendan O’Boyle, Americas Quarterly: “Pedro Kumamoto on the Future of Independent Politics in Mexico: An interview with 29-year-old former legislator Pedro Kumamoto as he gets set to found a new political party in Mexico.”
Paraguay General – April 22, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
President Mario Abdo Benítez won the 2018 presidential elections with 48.96 percent of the vote. Abdo’s conservative Colorado Party, which has dominated Paraguay’s politics for a long time, holds a majority in the lower house of Paraguay’s bicameral National Congress, and a plurality in the upper house. T
Daniela Desantis, Reuters: “Paraguayan President Mario Abdo said on Wednesday he ‘accepts the fight’ after some lawmakers announced they will push to impeach him following the scandal over the signing of an energy policy with Brazil, which they said went against the country’s sovereignty.”
The Year Ahead: Americas
Canada provincial and territorial (throughout the year); Argentina primaries (August 11); Guatemala general second round (August 11); Bolivia presidential and legislative (October); Haiti parliamentary (October); Bolivia presidential and legislative (October 20); Canada general (on or before October 21 – exact date not set yet); Argentina presidential and legislative (October 27); Uruguay presidential and legislative (October 27); Colombia local (October 27); Guyana snap parliamentary (November); Trinidad and Tobago local (November) Dominica legislative (December); St. Kitts and Nevis legislative (February)
Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in 2011, when she was president. Although she is technically running for vice president this year, she is the driving force of her ticket. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Casa Rosada (CC BY-SA 2.0)
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Category: This Week Tags: Argentina, Belize, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Dominica, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela