Upcoming Elections
Kosovo Snap Parliamentary – Expected September or October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Kosovo will likely hold snap elections this fall following the resignation of Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj after he was summoned to The Hague about potential war crimes. Haradinaj, who had previously been acquitted for war crimes – became prime minister in snap elections in June 2017 following a no-confidence motion.
Kosovo – which is 90 percent ethnic Albanian – was formerly part of Serbia, and for a long time enjoyed a degree of autonomy. However, in 1999, in the context of the breakup of Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic became president of Serbia and centralized control of Kosovo. This kicked off a bloody war between Serbian forces and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). NATO intervened with airstrikes and Kosovo was placed under UN administration. On February 17, 2008, Kosovo declared independence, and the United States recognized the country on February 18. Other countries followed suit, and even though some countries continue to view Kosovo as a breakaway province of Serbia, many analysts believe that independence is an irreversible fact.
Kosovo has a number of political parties that compete in elections – many grew out of KLA networks or were founded by prominent KLA commanders. Personalities play a large role in the political parties – perhaps a bigger role than ideology, although many of the parties do have broadly-stated ideologies. Kosovo has a record of holding elections that are generally credible despite some concerns. Some violent incidents still occur.
RFE/RL: “Kosovo’s parliament is to hold an extraordinary session on August 22 to disband, allowing the country’s president to announce early general elections….After the dissolution, President Hashim Thaci will set a date for the polls, which will have to be held 30 to 45 days later.”
Blerta Begisholli, Balkan Insight: “Hague Prosecutors Call Female Kosovo MP for Questioning: MP Time Kadrijaj, who is reported to have been a Kosovo Liberation Army doctor during wartime, is the latest politician to be summoned for an interview by the Specialist Prosecutor’s Office in The Hague.”
Gazeta Express: “LDK and Vetevendosje leading in Kosovo, followed by PDK and AAK”
Germany State Elections – September 1, 2019 (Saxony and Brandenburg) and October 27, 2019 (Thuringia)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Germany has a federal system with 16 Länder (states) that each have their own constitution, parliament (Landtag) and state government. The states have autonomy over internal policy, but do not have their own tax authority, and political parties are quite centralized at the federal level. Three states in the east hold elections this year: Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia. Brandenburg is currently governed by a coalition of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the populist Left (die Linke). Saxony has a grand coalition of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD). The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to do well in all three state elections in the east this year. AfD won the most votes in Brandenburg in the European Parliament elections this year. It beat CDU in Saxony, and came close in Thuringia.
However, AfD did not succeed in winning its first mayoral contest. In a closely-watched mayoral election in Görlitz (nicknamed Görliwood because many films have been shot there), in Saxony, when CDU, the Greens, and SPD teamed up to defeat the AfD candidate in the runoff.
Iain Rogers, Bloomberg: “Support for Chancellor Angela Merkel’s junior coalition partner slipped to its worst-ever in an opinion poll published on Tuesday, strengthening the possibility an already frayed government could fall apart. The Social Democratic Party, or SPD, got only 11.5% in the latest Insa poll for Bild newspaper, the lowest ever in that survey and one percentage point down on the previous week, Bild said.”
Alexander Pearson, DW: “AfD slammed for using center-left Cold War chancellor on election posters. Social Democrats (SPD) said the move by the far-right party “smeared” the memory of former Chancellor Willy Brandt. The SPD leader sought atonement for Nazi Germany’s crimes and a reduction in Cold War tensions.”
Norway Local – September 9, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
In Norway’s 2015 local elections, the center-left Labour Party won the most votes – 33 percent – and the center-right Conservatives lost control of Oslo and Bergen. Norway has a lot of political parties with a wide variety of ideologies. Labour and the Conservatives (who have governed the country since 2013, but have been in coalition with the Progress Party since 2017) are the largest.
Environmental issues are playing a major role in the debate ahead of these elections, where voters will choose mayors and municipal and county councils throughout Norway. Not all ideas supported by the environmental movement are popular – controversial road tolls have sparked vigorous political debate and threatened to collapse Prime Minister Erna Solberg’s government because her coalition partner, the Progress Party – which some call a populist party with a libertarian bent and others call a libertarian party with a populist bent – opposes them.
Upstart and protest parties look set to do well in the elections. The Folkeaksjonen nei til mer bompenger (FNB) – “People’s Action – No To More Road Tolls” – which was founded in 2014 in Stavanger, in southwest Norway, won three seats in Stavanger in the 2015 municipal elections, and now seeks to have a national presence. The party has been polling well.
Dagsavisen: “Protest parties are most prominent on the municipal election survey. The Centre Party and the People’s Action – No To More Road Tolls are likely to be the big electoral winners, the average of local measurements shows.”
Mats Rønning, Dagbladet: “It’s no secret what Bjørn Revil thinks about car and toll. But what does the list top in the People’s Action – No To More Road Tolls (FNB) in Oslo think about other political issues?”
Marie Simonsen, Dagbladet (in Norwegian): “Commentary – Civil war in Norway: The Greens are the future”
Eirik Husøy, Aftenposten (in Norwegian): “Norwegian plastic is shipped to Germany. Oslo politicians are now promising recycling facilities in Eastern Norway.”
NRK (Norwegian state broadcaster – in Norwegian): “Prime Minister and Conservative leader Erna Solberg will meet Opposition Leader Jonas Gahr Støre [from the Labour Party] for debate on Monday [August 12]….Conservatives and Labaour have had to choose one theme each and two common themes. In addition, the chairman can choose a bench freely. The predetermined themes are school, working life, climate and elderly care.”
Poland Parliamentary – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.
Zosia Wanat, Politico: “Poland’s president sets October 13 election date. Duda wants a quick election campaign, and the ruling Law and Justice party is poised to win.”
Zselyke Csaky, Politico: “This spring, the emergence of a new, progressive party, Wiosna, and a shift in the main opposition party, Civic Platform, pushed LGBT rights up the political agenda. PiS latched onto the topic, unleashing a campaign of well-targeted, explosive anti-LGBT messages that have brought the debate to a boiling point.”
Hungary Local – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free this year) – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian. Nonetheless, the party has been on a winning streak. In the April 2018 parliamentary elections, Fidesz won a third supermajority, and the party won 52 percent of the vote in this year’s European Parliament elections. While the party has historically been a member of the center-right European People’s Party, it has in recent years become populist and nationalist, but with left-wing economic policies. Orbán has pushed the idea of “illiberal democracy.” The local elections will not change the national government, but if the opposition can unite and put in a strong showing, it will reduce Fidesz’s stranglehold on the country’s politics.
In June 2019, the Hungarian opposition united to hold the country’s first-ever formal primary to choose a candidate for mayor of Budapest. Sociologist Gergely Karácsony will take on incumbent István Tarlós, who is backed by Orban. However, opposition parties are divided on whether to back Karácsony or run their own candidates.
Rick Noack, Washington Post: “Coca-Cola is facing intense criticism in Hungary over an ad campaign featuring same-sex couples, the latest instance of a vocal anti-gay backlash across parts of post-communist central Europe.”
Albania Local Re-Run – October 13, 2019 (proposed – not certain)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Albania is in the middle of a tense political standoff between Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Socialists and the main opposition center-right Democratic Party, led by Lulzim Basha. All but two MPs from the Democratic Party and one from the Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI) surrendered their parliamentary mandates in February, and have led a series of protests marred by violence. The opposition demands Rama’s resignation and new elections, and boycotted the local elections. President Ilir Meta cancelled the June 30 local elections and called on parties to reduce political tensions, but Rama proceeded with the polls anyway, and without the participation of the opposition, almost all seats went uncontested.
Meta then set a date for new local elections on October 13, 2019, but the Socialist Party has said they would not participate. Albania’s political crisis continues.
Exit: “Three opposition parties requested the Central Election Commission (KQZ) to launch procedures for organizing local elections on October 13.”
Exit: “President Ilir Meta had decreed the local elections of October 13 after he canceled the local elections of June 30….”
Tsarizm: “Albanian Socialist Party Ignores Local Election Date Set by President, Promises Electoral Reform”
Simone Benazzo and Marco Carlone, Balkan Insight: “Time to Build Europe at Home, says Tirana Mayor”`
Bulgaria Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
In the European elections in May, both the governing center-right GERB party and the main opposition Socialist Party ran on a pro-European platform, despite some members of both parties wanting to take a more Eurosceptic tone. As a result, GERB won, followed by the Socialists. The Volya party, which partners with Marine Le Pen in the European Parliament, did not win any seats. However, turnout was very low – 30 percent. Bulgaria is beginning to emerge from a long stretch of chaotic politics characterized by a series of early elections and caretaker governments, but a number of problems remain.
Clive Leviev-Sawyer, IBNA: “After 19 years on the air, Bulgarian television showman Slavi Trifonov’s nightly broadcast came to an end, with an announcement that he is to found a political party. The July 31 announcement came just less than three months before Bulgaria is due to go to the polls in mayoral and municipal elections.”
Novinite: “Parliament Speaker Tsveta Karayancheva: The Political Season has been Dynamic”
Croatia Presidential – December 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
In the 2014-2015 elections, Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović from the center-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) narrowly defeated independent (former Social Democrat) incumbent Ivo Josipović in the runoff to become Croatia’s first female president. She is expected to run for a second term, but has not announced her candidacy yet. Several other candidates have also expressed interest. Because Croatia is a parliamentary system, the president does not have executive authority. HDZ currently heads Croatia’s government. Croatia’s next parliamentary elections are due by December 23, 2020.
Reuters: “Croatia President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarevic will run for a second five-year term on behalf of her ruling party, Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic, who also heads the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), said on Tuesday [August 6].”
HINA, Total Croatia News: “Presidential Candidate Škoro Advocates More Powers for President”
Romania Presidential – November 10, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Since communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu fell in 1989, Romania has become a free democracy but politics are volatile – the office of the prime minister has changed hands eight times since 2014. Corruption and weak rule of law remain serious problems. Liviu Dragnea, head of the governing left-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD), is currently in prison for abuse of power. PSD only got 23 percent of votes in the May 2019 European Parliament election, half of the support it had in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The 2014 presidential elections handed a surprise victory to Klaus Iohannis, the center-right mayor of Sibiu in Transylvania, who defeated then-Prime Minister Victor Ponta in the runoff. Iohannis plans to run for a second term.
Alison Mutler, RFE/RL: “How It Took The Disappearance Of Two Girls To Halt Romania’s Controversial Legal Overhaul: Massive street protests and stern warnings from the European Union and U.S. State Department were not enough to stop a controversial overhaul of the Romanian legal system that would have weakened the fight against corruption.”
Romania Insider: “The National Executive Committee of the senior ruling Social Democratic Party (PSD) decided in a meeting on July 29 to postpone the Congress of the party for August 24, political sources told Agerpres.”
Romania Insider: “Vlad Voiculescu, who served as health minister in the former technocrat government led by Dacian Ciolos, has been nominated candidate of opposition party PLUS for the Bucharest mayor seat, the party announced.”
Ireland General – Due by April 10, 2021 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Daniel McConnell, Irish Examiner: “Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has signalled to a meeting of his Fine Gael ministers that he would prefer the upcoming by-elections to be held in November, even if his party is unlikely to win any of them. The loss of all four by-elections by Fine Gael would rob them of any momentum going into a general election campaign, which is expected within the next 12 months.”
Flach Kelly, Irish Times: Leo Varadkar has already made his bed for a general election: Taoiseach’s best chance of returning to Government rests on Brexit”
Italy General – Due by May 2023 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Stratfor: “The Italian government has won a confidence vote in the country’s Senate regarding a proposed security decree by a final count of 160 votes in favor, 57 against and 21 abstaining, La Stampa reported Aug. 6. The Senate’s vote will keep the Italian government in place for at least another month as legislative activity is largely muted during the summer recess.”
Angela Giuffrida, The Guardian: “Matteo Salvini embarks on ‘beach tour’ amid election speculation. Far-right leader takes unusual step in effort to drum up support in south of country.”
Serbia Parliamentary – Due April 2020 (snap possible) and Presidential (due 2022, snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free in 2019) – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Snezana Bjelotomic, Serbian Monitor: “Opposition bloc: Election conditions are still not fair, decision on election boycott in September”
Snezana Bjelotomic, Serbian Monitor: “Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said on Thursday that he would not allow the opposition to prevent elections.”
Past Elections
United Kingdom By-Election in Brecon and Radnorshire – August 1, 2019 (next general election due May 5, 2022 but snap elections possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth Realm)
The Conservatives won a majority in the the 2015 elections, allowing them to form a government on their own (they had defeated the incumbent Labour in the 2010 elections, but did not have a majority and had to form a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats). The Conservatives had promised to hold a referendum on leaving the European Union (Brexit), and the highly polarized vote delivered a win for the Brexiteers.
Following the result of the referendum, Cameron resigned as prime minister, and former Home Minister Teresa May won the subsequent Conservative Party leadership contest and became prime minister. May called for a new general election, but the gamble failed and the Conservatives lost their majority. They were able to form a government backed by a confidence-and-supply deal with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, a situation that significantly hindered the government’s ability to negotiate an exit. Following pressure, May resigned, and firebrand Brexiteer Boris Johnson won the leadership contest and became Prime Minister. Johnson has committed to delivering Brexit by October 31, 2019, with or without a deal. However, many MPs oppose leaving without a deal, creating a climate of tension and uncertainty in British politics.
On August 1, a by-election took place in the constituency of Brecon and Radnorshire in Wales because voters signed a recall petition for incumbent MP Chris Davies (a Conservative) after he was convicted for a false expense claim. The Liberal Democrat candidate, Jane Dodds, won the seat.
Jessie Yeung, CNN: “Liberal Democrat candidate Jane Dodds won in the Brecon and Radnorshire region of Wales, defeating Conservative candidate Chris Davies, who had previously held the seat. The Conservative loss follows Johnson’s pledge to take Britain out of the European Union by October 31 without a deal if necessary, and will likely be seized on by pro-European lawmakers as apparent proof that voters do not back his hardline stance.”
Stephen Castle, New York Times: “Boris Johnson’s Majority Falls to One Seat, Heightening Chances of an Election”
Isabella Borshoff, Politico: “Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said U.K. Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn will be partly responsible if the U.K. crashes out of the EU without a deal. But she won’t rule out siding with the opposition party to oust the Conservatives in a general election.”
Spain Snap Parliamentary – April 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
The incumbent Socialists won the April snap elections, which Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called after failing to pass a budget. The far-right Vox won seats, the first time the far-right has been in parliament since Spain became a democracy (Vox also won seats in Andalusia’s regional elections in December, the first time for the far-right to enter any Spanish legislative body in the history of Spanish democracy).
Carlos E. Cué, El País: “Spain’s voters upset at stalemate but divided over a new election, poll shows: The majority of Unidas Podemos and Socialist voters do not want to go back to the ballot boxes, but right-wing supporters defend a new vote”
Bosnia and Herzegovina General – October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
RFE/RL: “Bosnian Leaders Reach Deal On Cabinet Formation 10 Months After Vote”
Europe
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Last Updated: August 8, 2019 by 21votes
August 7, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Europe on Wednesdays. Click the map pins.
Kosovo Snap Parliamentary - Expected September or October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Kosovo will likely hold snap elections this fall following the resignation of Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj after he was summoned to The Hague about potential war crimes. Haradinaj, who had previously been acquitted for war crimes – became prime minister in snap elections in June 2017 following a no-confidence motion.
Kosovo – which is 90 percent ethnic Albanian – was formerly part of Serbia, and for a long time enjoyed a degree of autonomy. However, in 1999, in the context of the breakup of Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic became president of Serbia and centralized control of Kosovo. This kicked off a bloody war between Serbian forces and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). NATO intervened with airstrikes and Kosovo was placed under UN administration. On February 17, 2008, Kosovo declared independence, and the United States recognized the country on February 18. Other countries followed suit, and even though some countries continue to view Kosovo as a breakaway province of Serbia, many analysts believe that independence is an irreversible fact.
Kosovo has a number of political parties that compete in elections – many grew out of KLA networks or were founded by prominent KLA commanders. Personalities play a large role in the political parties – perhaps a bigger role than ideology, although many of the parties do have broadly-stated ideologies. Kosovo has a record of holding elections that are generally credible despite some concerns. Some violent incidents still occur.
Germany State Elections – September 1, 2019 (Saxony and Brandenburg) and October 27, 2019 (Thuringia)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Germany has a federal system with 16 Länder (states) that each have their own constitution, parliament (Landtag) and state government. The states have autonomy over internal policy, but do not have their own tax authority, and political parties are quite centralized at the federal level. Three states in the east hold elections this year: Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia. Brandenburg is currently governed by a coalition of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the populist Left (die Linke). Saxony has a grand coalition of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD). The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to do well in all three state elections in the east this year. AfD won the most votes in Brandenburg in the European Parliament elections this year. It beat CDU in Saxony, and came close in Thuringia.
However, AfD did not succeed in winning its first mayoral contest. In a closely-watched mayoral election in Görlitz (nicknamed Görliwood because many films have been shot there), in Saxony, when CDU, the Greens, and SPD teamed up to defeat the AfD candidate in the runoff.
Norway Local - September 9, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
In Norway’s 2015 local elections, the center-left Labour Party won the most votes – 33 percent – and the center-right Conservatives lost control of Oslo and Bergen. Norway has a lot of political parties with a wide variety of ideologies. Labour and the Conservatives (who have governed the country since 2013, but have been in coalition with the Progress Party since 2017) are the largest.
Environmental issues are playing a major role in the debate ahead of these elections, where voters will choose mayors and municipal and county councils throughout Norway. Not all ideas supported by the environmental movement are popular – controversial road tolls have sparked vigorous political debate and threatened to collapse Prime Minister Erna Solberg’s government because her coalition partner, the Progress Party – which some call a populist party with a libertarian bent and others call a libertarian party with a populist bent – opposes them.
Upstart and protest parties look set to do well in the elections. The Folkeaksjonen nei til mer bompenger (FNB) – “People’s Action – No To More Road Tolls” – which was founded in 2014 in Stavanger, in southwest Norway, won three seats in Stavanger in the 2015 municipal elections, and now seeks to have a national presence. The party has been polling well.
Poland Parliamentary – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.
Hungary Local – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free this year) – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian. Nonetheless, the party has been on a winning streak. In the April 2018 parliamentary elections, Fidesz won a third supermajority, and the party won 52 percent of the vote in this year’s European Parliament elections. While the party has historically been a member of the center-right European People’s Party, it has in recent years become populist and nationalist, but with left-wing economic policies. Orbán has pushed the idea of “illiberal democracy.” The local elections will not change the national government, but if the opposition can unite and put in a strong showing, it will reduce Fidesz’s stranglehold on the country’s politics.
In June 2019, the Hungarian opposition united to hold the country’s first-ever formal primary to choose a candidate for mayor of Budapest. Sociologist Gergely Karácsony will take on incumbent István Tarlós, who is backed by Orban. However, opposition parties are divided on whether to back Karácsony or run their own candidates.
Albania Local Re-Run - October 13, 2019 (proposed - not certain)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Albania is in the middle of a tense political standoff between Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Socialists and the main opposition center-right Democratic Party, led by Lulzim Basha. All but two MPs from the Democratic Party and one from the Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI) surrendered their parliamentary mandates in February, and have led a series of protests marred by violence. The opposition demands Rama’s resignation and new elections, and boycotted the local elections. President Ilir Meta cancelled the June 30 local elections and called on parties to reduce political tensions, but Rama proceeded with the polls anyway, and without the participation of the opposition, almost all seats went uncontested.
Meta then set a date for new local elections on October 13, 2019, but the Socialist Party has said they would not participate. Albania’s political crisis continues.
Bulgaria Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
In the European elections in May, both the governing center-right GERB party and the main opposition Socialist Party ran on a pro-European platform, despite some members of both parties wanting to take a more Eurosceptic tone. As a result, GERB won, followed by the Socialists. The Volya party, which partners with Marine Le Pen in the European Parliament, did not win any seats. However, turnout was very low – 30 percent. Bulgaria is beginning to emerge from a long stretch of chaotic politics characterized by a series of early elections and caretaker governments, but a number of problems remain.
Croatia Presidential – December 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
In the 2014-2015 elections, Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović from the center-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) narrowly defeated independent (former Social Democrat) incumbent Ivo Josipović in the runoff to become Croatia’s first female president. She is expected to run for a second term, but has not announced her candidacy yet. Several other candidates have also expressed interest. Because Croatia is a parliamentary system, the president does not have executive authority. HDZ currently heads Croatia’s government. Croatia’s next parliamentary elections are due by December 23, 2020.
Romania Presidential – November 10, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Since communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu fell in 1989, Romania has become a free democracy but politics are volatile – the office of the prime minister has changed hands eight times since 2014. Corruption and weak rule of law remain serious problems. Liviu Dragnea, head of the governing left-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD), is currently in prison for abuse of power. PSD only got 23 percent of votes in the May 2019 European Parliament election, half of the support it had in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The 2014 presidential elections handed a surprise victory to Klaus Iohannis, the center-right mayor of Sibiu in Transylvania, who defeated then-Prime Minister Victor Ponta in the runoff. Iohannis plans to run for a second term.
Ireland General - Due by April 10, 2021 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Italy General – Due by May 2023 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Serbia Parliamentary – Due April 2020 (snap possible) and Presidential (due 2022, snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free in 2019) – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
United Kingdom By-Election in Brecon and Radnorshire - August 1, 2019 (next general election due May 5, 2022 but snap elections possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth Realm)
The Conservatives won a majority in the the 2015 elections, allowing them to form a government on their own (they had defeated the incumbent Labour in the 2010 elections, but did not have a majority and had to form a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats). The Conservatives had promised to hold a referendum on leaving the European Union (Brexit), and the highly polarized vote delivered a win for the Brexiteers.
Following the result of the referendum, Cameron resigned as prime minister, and former Home Minister Teresa May won the subsequent Conservative Party leadership contest and became prime minister. May called for a new general election, but the gamble failed and the Conservatives lost their majority. They were able to form a government backed by a confidence-and-supply deal with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, a situation that significantly hindered the government’s ability to negotiate an exit. Following pressure, May resigned, and firebrand Brexiteer Boris Johnson won the leadership contest and became Prime Minister. Johnson has committed to delivering Brexit by October 31, 2019, with or without a deal. However, many MPs oppose leaving without a deal, creating a climate of tension and uncertainty in British politics.
On August 1, a by-election took place in the constituency of Brecon and Radnorshire in Wales because voters signed a recall petition for incumbent MP Chris Davies (a Conservative) after he was convicted for a false expense claim. The Liberal Democrat candidate, Jane Dodds, won the seat.
Spain Snap Parliamentary – April 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
The incumbent Socialists won the April snap elections, which Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called after failing to pass a budget. The far-right Vox won seats, the first time the far-right has been in parliament since Spain became a democracy (Vox also won seats in Andalusia’s regional elections in December, the first time for the far-right to enter any Spanish legislative body in the history of Spanish democracy).
Bosnia and Herzegovina General - October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Upcoming Elections
Kosovo Snap Parliamentary – Expected September or October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Kosovo will likely hold snap elections this fall following the resignation of Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj after he was summoned to The Hague about potential war crimes. Haradinaj, who had previously been acquitted for war crimes – became prime minister in snap elections in June 2017 following a no-confidence motion.
Kosovo – which is 90 percent ethnic Albanian – was formerly part of Serbia, and for a long time enjoyed a degree of autonomy. However, in 1999, in the context of the breakup of Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic became president of Serbia and centralized control of Kosovo. This kicked off a bloody war between Serbian forces and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). NATO intervened with airstrikes and Kosovo was placed under UN administration. On February 17, 2008, Kosovo declared independence, and the United States recognized the country on February 18. Other countries followed suit, and even though some countries continue to view Kosovo as a breakaway province of Serbia, many analysts believe that independence is an irreversible fact.
Kosovo has a number of political parties that compete in elections – many grew out of KLA networks or were founded by prominent KLA commanders. Personalities play a large role in the political parties – perhaps a bigger role than ideology, although many of the parties do have broadly-stated ideologies. Kosovo has a record of holding elections that are generally credible despite some concerns. Some violent incidents still occur.
RFE/RL: “Kosovo’s parliament is to hold an extraordinary session on August 22 to disband, allowing the country’s president to announce early general elections….After the dissolution, President Hashim Thaci will set a date for the polls, which will have to be held 30 to 45 days later.”
Blerta Begisholli, Balkan Insight: “Hague Prosecutors Call Female Kosovo MP for Questioning: MP Time Kadrijaj, who is reported to have been a Kosovo Liberation Army doctor during wartime, is the latest politician to be summoned for an interview by the Specialist Prosecutor’s Office in The Hague.”
Gazeta Express: “LDK and Vetevendosje leading in Kosovo, followed by PDK and AAK”
Germany State Elections – September 1, 2019 (Saxony and Brandenburg) and October 27, 2019 (Thuringia)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Germany has a federal system with 16 Länder (states) that each have their own constitution, parliament (Landtag) and state government. The states have autonomy over internal policy, but do not have their own tax authority, and political parties are quite centralized at the federal level. Three states in the east hold elections this year: Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia. Brandenburg is currently governed by a coalition of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the populist Left (die Linke). Saxony has a grand coalition of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD). The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to do well in all three state elections in the east this year. AfD won the most votes in Brandenburg in the European Parliament elections this year. It beat CDU in Saxony, and came close in Thuringia.
However, AfD did not succeed in winning its first mayoral contest. In a closely-watched mayoral election in Görlitz (nicknamed Görliwood because many films have been shot there), in Saxony, when CDU, the Greens, and SPD teamed up to defeat the AfD candidate in the runoff.
Iain Rogers, Bloomberg: “Support for Chancellor Angela Merkel’s junior coalition partner slipped to its worst-ever in an opinion poll published on Tuesday, strengthening the possibility an already frayed government could fall apart. The Social Democratic Party, or SPD, got only 11.5% in the latest Insa poll for Bild newspaper, the lowest ever in that survey and one percentage point down on the previous week, Bild said.”
Alexander Pearson, DW: “AfD slammed for using center-left Cold War chancellor on election posters. Social Democrats (SPD) said the move by the far-right party “smeared” the memory of former Chancellor Willy Brandt. The SPD leader sought atonement for Nazi Germany’s crimes and a reduction in Cold War tensions.”
Norway Local – September 9, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
In Norway’s 2015 local elections, the center-left Labour Party won the most votes – 33 percent – and the center-right Conservatives lost control of Oslo and Bergen. Norway has a lot of political parties with a wide variety of ideologies. Labour and the Conservatives (who have governed the country since 2013, but have been in coalition with the Progress Party since 2017) are the largest.
Environmental issues are playing a major role in the debate ahead of these elections, where voters will choose mayors and municipal and county councils throughout Norway. Not all ideas supported by the environmental movement are popular – controversial road tolls have sparked vigorous political debate and threatened to collapse Prime Minister Erna Solberg’s government because her coalition partner, the Progress Party – which some call a populist party with a libertarian bent and others call a libertarian party with a populist bent – opposes them.
Upstart and protest parties look set to do well in the elections. The Folkeaksjonen nei til mer bompenger (FNB) – “People’s Action – No To More Road Tolls” – which was founded in 2014 in Stavanger, in southwest Norway, won three seats in Stavanger in the 2015 municipal elections, and now seeks to have a national presence. The party has been polling well.
Dagsavisen: “Protest parties are most prominent on the municipal election survey. The Centre Party and the People’s Action – No To More Road Tolls are likely to be the big electoral winners, the average of local measurements shows.”
Mats Rønning, Dagbladet: “It’s no secret what Bjørn Revil thinks about car and toll. But what does the list top in the People’s Action – No To More Road Tolls (FNB) in Oslo think about other political issues?”
Marie Simonsen, Dagbladet (in Norwegian): “Commentary – Civil war in Norway: The Greens are the future”
Eirik Husøy, Aftenposten (in Norwegian): “Norwegian plastic is shipped to Germany. Oslo politicians are now promising recycling facilities in Eastern Norway.”
NRK (Norwegian state broadcaster – in Norwegian): “Prime Minister and Conservative leader Erna Solberg will meet Opposition Leader Jonas Gahr Støre [from the Labour Party] for debate on Monday [August 12]….Conservatives and Labaour have had to choose one theme each and two common themes. In addition, the chairman can choose a bench freely. The predetermined themes are school, working life, climate and elderly care.”
Poland Parliamentary – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.
Zosia Wanat, Politico: “Poland’s president sets October 13 election date. Duda wants a quick election campaign, and the ruling Law and Justice party is poised to win.”
Zselyke Csaky, Politico: “This spring, the emergence of a new, progressive party, Wiosna, and a shift in the main opposition party, Civic Platform, pushed LGBT rights up the political agenda. PiS latched onto the topic, unleashing a campaign of well-targeted, explosive anti-LGBT messages that have brought the debate to a boiling point.”
Hungary Local – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free this year) – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian. Nonetheless, the party has been on a winning streak. In the April 2018 parliamentary elections, Fidesz won a third supermajority, and the party won 52 percent of the vote in this year’s European Parliament elections. While the party has historically been a member of the center-right European People’s Party, it has in recent years become populist and nationalist, but with left-wing economic policies. Orbán has pushed the idea of “illiberal democracy.” The local elections will not change the national government, but if the opposition can unite and put in a strong showing, it will reduce Fidesz’s stranglehold on the country’s politics.
In June 2019, the Hungarian opposition united to hold the country’s first-ever formal primary to choose a candidate for mayor of Budapest. Sociologist Gergely Karácsony will take on incumbent István Tarlós, who is backed by Orban. However, opposition parties are divided on whether to back Karácsony or run their own candidates.
Rick Noack, Washington Post: “Coca-Cola is facing intense criticism in Hungary over an ad campaign featuring same-sex couples, the latest instance of a vocal anti-gay backlash across parts of post-communist central Europe.”
Albania Local Re-Run – October 13, 2019 (proposed – not certain)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Albania is in the middle of a tense political standoff between Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Socialists and the main opposition center-right Democratic Party, led by Lulzim Basha. All but two MPs from the Democratic Party and one from the Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI) surrendered their parliamentary mandates in February, and have led a series of protests marred by violence. The opposition demands Rama’s resignation and new elections, and boycotted the local elections. President Ilir Meta cancelled the June 30 local elections and called on parties to reduce political tensions, but Rama proceeded with the polls anyway, and without the participation of the opposition, almost all seats went uncontested.
Meta then set a date for new local elections on October 13, 2019, but the Socialist Party has said they would not participate. Albania’s political crisis continues.
Exit: “Three opposition parties requested the Central Election Commission (KQZ) to launch procedures for organizing local elections on October 13.”
Exit: “President Ilir Meta had decreed the local elections of October 13 after he canceled the local elections of June 30….”
Tsarizm: “Albanian Socialist Party Ignores Local Election Date Set by President, Promises Electoral Reform”
Simone Benazzo and Marco Carlone, Balkan Insight: “Time to Build Europe at Home, says Tirana Mayor”`
Bulgaria Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
In the European elections in May, both the governing center-right GERB party and the main opposition Socialist Party ran on a pro-European platform, despite some members of both parties wanting to take a more Eurosceptic tone. As a result, GERB won, followed by the Socialists. The Volya party, which partners with Marine Le Pen in the European Parliament, did not win any seats. However, turnout was very low – 30 percent. Bulgaria is beginning to emerge from a long stretch of chaotic politics characterized by a series of early elections and caretaker governments, but a number of problems remain.
Clive Leviev-Sawyer, IBNA: “After 19 years on the air, Bulgarian television showman Slavi Trifonov’s nightly broadcast came to an end, with an announcement that he is to found a political party. The July 31 announcement came just less than three months before Bulgaria is due to go to the polls in mayoral and municipal elections.”
Novinite: “Parliament Speaker Tsveta Karayancheva: The Political Season has been Dynamic”
Croatia Presidential – December 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
In the 2014-2015 elections, Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović from the center-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) narrowly defeated independent (former Social Democrat) incumbent Ivo Josipović in the runoff to become Croatia’s first female president. She is expected to run for a second term, but has not announced her candidacy yet. Several other candidates have also expressed interest. Because Croatia is a parliamentary system, the president does not have executive authority. HDZ currently heads Croatia’s government. Croatia’s next parliamentary elections are due by December 23, 2020.
Reuters: “Croatia President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarevic will run for a second five-year term on behalf of her ruling party, Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic, who also heads the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), said on Tuesday [August 6].”
HINA, Total Croatia News: “Presidential Candidate Škoro Advocates More Powers for President”
Romania Presidential – November 10, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Since communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu fell in 1989, Romania has become a free democracy but politics are volatile – the office of the prime minister has changed hands eight times since 2014. Corruption and weak rule of law remain serious problems. Liviu Dragnea, head of the governing left-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD), is currently in prison for abuse of power. PSD only got 23 percent of votes in the May 2019 European Parliament election, half of the support it had in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The 2014 presidential elections handed a surprise victory to Klaus Iohannis, the center-right mayor of Sibiu in Transylvania, who defeated then-Prime Minister Victor Ponta in the runoff. Iohannis plans to run for a second term.
Alison Mutler, RFE/RL: “How It Took The Disappearance Of Two Girls To Halt Romania’s Controversial Legal Overhaul: Massive street protests and stern warnings from the European Union and U.S. State Department were not enough to stop a controversial overhaul of the Romanian legal system that would have weakened the fight against corruption.”
Romania Insider: “The National Executive Committee of the senior ruling Social Democratic Party (PSD) decided in a meeting on July 29 to postpone the Congress of the party for August 24, political sources told Agerpres.”
Romania Insider: “Vlad Voiculescu, who served as health minister in the former technocrat government led by Dacian Ciolos, has been nominated candidate of opposition party PLUS for the Bucharest mayor seat, the party announced.”
Ireland General – Due by April 10, 2021 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Daniel McConnell, Irish Examiner: “Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has signalled to a meeting of his Fine Gael ministers that he would prefer the upcoming by-elections to be held in November, even if his party is unlikely to win any of them. The loss of all four by-elections by Fine Gael would rob them of any momentum going into a general election campaign, which is expected within the next 12 months.”
Flach Kelly, Irish Times: Leo Varadkar has already made his bed for a general election: Taoiseach’s best chance of returning to Government rests on Brexit”
Italy General – Due by May 2023 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Stratfor: “The Italian government has won a confidence vote in the country’s Senate regarding a proposed security decree by a final count of 160 votes in favor, 57 against and 21 abstaining, La Stampa reported Aug. 6. The Senate’s vote will keep the Italian government in place for at least another month as legislative activity is largely muted during the summer recess.”
Angela Giuffrida, The Guardian: “Matteo Salvini embarks on ‘beach tour’ amid election speculation. Far-right leader takes unusual step in effort to drum up support in south of country.”
Serbia Parliamentary – Due April 2020 (snap possible) and Presidential (due 2022, snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free in 2019) – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Snezana Bjelotomic, Serbian Monitor: “Opposition bloc: Election conditions are still not fair, decision on election boycott in September”
Snezana Bjelotomic, Serbian Monitor: “Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said on Thursday that he would not allow the opposition to prevent elections.”
Past Elections
United Kingdom By-Election in Brecon and Radnorshire – August 1, 2019 (next general election due May 5, 2022 but snap elections possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth Realm)
The Conservatives won a majority in the the 2015 elections, allowing them to form a government on their own (they had defeated the incumbent Labour in the 2010 elections, but did not have a majority and had to form a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats). The Conservatives had promised to hold a referendum on leaving the European Union (Brexit), and the highly polarized vote delivered a win for the Brexiteers.
Following the result of the referendum, Cameron resigned as prime minister, and former Home Minister Teresa May won the subsequent Conservative Party leadership contest and became prime minister. May called for a new general election, but the gamble failed and the Conservatives lost their majority. They were able to form a government backed by a confidence-and-supply deal with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, a situation that significantly hindered the government’s ability to negotiate an exit. Following pressure, May resigned, and firebrand Brexiteer Boris Johnson won the leadership contest and became Prime Minister. Johnson has committed to delivering Brexit by October 31, 2019, with or without a deal. However, many MPs oppose leaving without a deal, creating a climate of tension and uncertainty in British politics.
On August 1, a by-election took place in the constituency of Brecon and Radnorshire in Wales because voters signed a recall petition for incumbent MP Chris Davies (a Conservative) after he was convicted for a false expense claim. The Liberal Democrat candidate, Jane Dodds, won the seat.
Jessie Yeung, CNN: “Liberal Democrat candidate Jane Dodds won in the Brecon and Radnorshire region of Wales, defeating Conservative candidate Chris Davies, who had previously held the seat. The Conservative loss follows Johnson’s pledge to take Britain out of the European Union by October 31 without a deal if necessary, and will likely be seized on by pro-European lawmakers as apparent proof that voters do not back his hardline stance.”
Stephen Castle, New York Times: “Boris Johnson’s Majority Falls to One Seat, Heightening Chances of an Election”
Isabella Borshoff, Politico: “Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said U.K. Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn will be partly responsible if the U.K. crashes out of the EU without a deal. But she won’t rule out siding with the opposition party to oust the Conservatives in a general election.”
Spain Snap Parliamentary – April 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
The incumbent Socialists won the April snap elections, which Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called after failing to pass a budget. The far-right Vox won seats, the first time the far-right has been in parliament since Spain became a democracy (Vox also won seats in Andalusia’s regional elections in December, the first time for the far-right to enter any Spanish legislative body in the history of Spanish democracy).
Carlos E. Cué, El País: “Spain’s voters upset at stalemate but divided over a new election, poll shows: The majority of Unidas Podemos and Socialist voters do not want to go back to the ballot boxes, but right-wing supporters defend a new vote”
Bosnia and Herzegovina General – October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
RFE/RL: “Bosnian Leaders Reach Deal On Cabinet Formation 10 Months After Vote”
The Year Ahead: Europe
Kosovo snap parliamentary (expected September or October); Germany, Brandenburg and Saxony states (September 1); Norway local (September 9); Portugal, Madeiran regional (September 22); Austria snap parliamentary (September 29); Finland Åland regional parliament and local (October); Portugal parliamentary (October 6); Poland parliamentary (October 13); Hungary local (October 13); Austria Vorarlberg state (October 13); Albania local re-run (October 13 – proposed but not for sure); Switzerland Federal Assembly (October 20); Bulgaria local (October 27); Germany Thuringia state (October 27); Romania presidential (November 3); Croatia presidential (December); Slovakia parliamentary (March 2020); Serbia parliamentary, provincial, local (March or April 2020); Poland presidential (May 2020); Iceland presidential (June 2020)
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Category: This Week Tags: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Norway, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Spain, United Kingdom