Upcoming Elections
Algeria Presidential – July 4, 2019 (cancelled)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Algerian politics are dominated by Le Pouvoir, a small group of elite from the military and the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, aged 82 and unable to walk or talk, was going to run for a fifth term in the election originally scheduled for April, but tens of thousands of Algerians protested for two months, and Bouteflika resigned. The election was moved to July 4, but then the Constitutional Council cancelled the vote and has not set a new date. Protests continue. Protesters are demanding assurances that any new elections will be free and fair.
Marc Daou and Tom Wheeldon, France24: “Algeria popular movement remains ‘strong’ – but fears ‘business as usual’: Protesters took to the streets in Algeria for the 21st consecutive week on Friday. Activists and experts say the popular movement is still determined to press its demands but the government is hardening its stance.”
Anne-Marie Bissada, RFI: “Algeria’s caretaker government has surpassed the constitutional deadline to hold elections to replace ousted President Abdelaziz Bouteflika. With no date set for future polls and a political crisis crippling the country, many Algerians are wondering what happens next. The current head of the interim government is to remain.”
France24: “Algerian army chief Ahmed Gaid Salah on Wednesday [July 10] reaffirmed his support for interim president Abdelkader Bensalah, whose term ended July 9 but who remains head of state in the absence of elections.”
Al Jazeera: “Algeria’s army chief cautions against calls for ‘civilian state’: Gaid Salah terms the demand a ‘poisonous idea’ that has come amid persisting protests.”
Al Jazeera: “Islamist leader elected new speaker of Algeria parliament. Slimane Chenine’s election marks first time in Algeria’s history an opposition member voted as parliamentary speaker.”
Hamid Ould Ahmed, Reuters: “Chenine, 47, is the youngest lawmaker to be elected as head of the National Assembly and his party has 15 of 462 seats in parliament, where the [National Liberation Front (FLN), which has ruled Algeria since independence in 1962] and its coalition partners have an overwhelming majority.”
Pakistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Partial Provincial Assembly – July 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Twenty-one seats out of total 145 seats in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Provincial Assembly are up for election on July 20. The seats are for constituencies that were previously part of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), which merged with KP in 2018 (KP was called the Northwest Frontier Province until 2010). Since FATA did not have a provincial assembly, this marks the first time that voters in those areas will vote for provincial representatives.
Abubakar Siddique, Sailab Mehsud, and Umar Daraz Wazir, RFE/RL’s Gandhara: “The first-ever election for representing Pakistan’s former Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) in the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has generated considerable interest and raised hopes. But days ahead of the crucial polls on July 20, candidates from the region are complaining of an uneven election field, restrictions, and fears of rigging.”
The Nation: “The KP-Fata merger has made it possible to give women a chance to represent the deprived and neglected women in the assemblies. For the first time, a woman hailing from the newly merged tribal district of Khyber has got the election ticket from Awami National Party on the general seat in PK-106 of Khyber district.”
Adnan Aamir, Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter: “Pakistan on the brink of civil dictatorship: Imran Khan is accused of persecuting political opponents and the media under the guise of an anti-corruption crackdown.”
Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Israel – nicknamed the “startup nation” – is a vibrant democracy. In September, Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s center-right Likud was unable to form a coalition following April’s elections. While parties friendly to Netanyahu won more seats than those friendly to Netanyahu’s main rival, former IDF chief Benny Gantz, coalition talks collapsed over the issue of drafting ultra-Orthodox into the military. One of Likud’s coalition partners, Avgidor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, supported conscription – and refused to budge – while religious parties adamantly opposed it, highlighting growing tensions between secular and religious Israelis. Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset and called for new elections rather than giving Gantz the chance to try to form a government. Additionally, Netanyahu faces corruption charges. The elections are happening in the middle of U.S. President Donald Trump’s quixotic attempt to seal the “deal of the century” between Israelis and Palestinians.
Brian Bennett, Time: “’Only the Strong Survive.’ How Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu Is Testing the Limits of Power”
Jack Khoury, Haaretz: “SIsrael’s Do-over Election Gives Arab Parties an Opportunity – One They’re Refusing to Seize: The parties’ failure to resurrect the Joint List points to a deep lack of trust from within – and in facing the Arab public”
Gil Hoffman, Jerusalem Post: “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took aim at Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Liberman on Monday, hosting 25 former deputy mayors, branch heads and other key activists from Liberman’s party who have shifted to Likud ahead of the September 17 election.”
Ben Sales, Jewish Telegraphic Agency: “Avigdor Liberman, the man who stopped Benjamin Netanyahu from forming an Israeli government this year, has a new campaign slogan: ‘Make Israel Normal Again.’”
Raoul Wootliff, Times of Israel: “Gantz says ‘in talks’ with Likud reps over unity government sans Netanyahu. Blue and White chief claims dissenting members of ruling party ‘getting ready for the day after’ PM”
Afghanistan Presidential – September 28, 2019 (further delays possible)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Islamic Republic
Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, marred by violence and administrative problems. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election. Presidential campaign is gearing up right in the middle of peacenegotiations between the United States and the Taliban.
Pamela Constable, Washington Post: “Marathon talks between Taliban and prominent Afghans conclude with positive — if vague — peace ‘road map’”
Omar Samad, Atlantic Council’s New Atlanticist: “An Afghan Opening: Opportunities, Challenges, and Pitfalls”
Anisa Shaheed, TOLO News: “Election observers on Thursday [July 11] criticized the Afghan government and international donors for not providing the budget of the upcoming presidential polls which has been estimated at $149 million.”
Nabila Ashrafi, TOLO News: “The all-women candidates’ group recently submitted a number of documents and evidence about alleged fraud in the parliamentary elections to relevant institutions but they said that they have heard nothing in response. They said that the Afghan government did not bother to hear their voice, hence, they have gathered near the embassy so that the US ambassador hears their voice.”
Ibrahim Rahmini, VOA: “Unknown armed assailants killed a reporter for a local radio station in Afghanistan’s eastern Paktia province. Nader Shah Sahibzada, a reporter for Voice of Gardiz local radio, went missing on Friday and authorities found his dead body on Saturday near his home in capital city, Gardiz.”
Tunisia Parliamentary – October 6, 2019 and Presidential – November 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and this year, the country will hold the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Ennadha, which presents itself as a moderate, pro-democracy Islamist party but holds some retrograde views, won the first post-Ben Ali elections, but in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the secularist Nidaa Tounes won the most seats. In 2018, Tunisia held long-delayed municipal elections, which saw independent candidates win the most seats, followed by Ennadha. President Beji Caid Essebsi of Nidaa Tounes, who became Tunisia’s first democratically-elected president in 2014, has said he will not seek a second term this year, even though the constitution allows it, saying it was time to “open the door to the youth” (Essebsi is 92). Prime Minister Youssef Chahed broke off from Nidaa Tounes to form Tahya Tounes, another secularist party, and it looks to be a close contest between the fractious secularist parties and Ennadha (Machrouu Tounes, another secularist party, broke from Nidaa Tounes in 2016 and currently has 25 seats in parliament).
Terrorist attacks and Essebsi’s sudden illness threatened to throw a wrench in Tunisian politics.
Simon Speakman Cordall, The Independent: “Meet the man hoping to become the Muslim world’s first openly gay president: ‘I was jailed for three months for sodomy in 2013. There’s no shame for me. There’s no shame for any of us,’ says Mounir Baatour”
Rikar Hussein, VOA: “As an estimated 6.7 million Tunisian voters prepare to head to the polls to elect their next government later this year, a growing fear of terrorist attacks could risk undermining the democratic process in the North African country, some analysts warn.”
Sarah Yerkes, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: “Tunisians are increasingly turning toward U.S. rivals for support. This shift in attitude toward the United States comes amidst a political crisis that highlights the fragility of the country’s democratic transition.”
Egypt Local – Due 2019 (delays possible)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Egypt’s first local elections in over 10 years are supposed to happen this year, but a date has not been set. The country has not had elected local government since 2011. Last year’s presidential election, which saw President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi re-elected for a second term, was neither free nor fair, and took place in an environment of harassment and intimidation of the opposition.
Hassan Abdel Zaher, The Arab Weekly: “Political parties in Egypt began preparing for the municipal elections, which are expected this year. The Egyptian House of Representatives has scheduled discussion on a draft measure that would regulate municipal councils. Enactment of the legislation would lead to elections, the first at that level in more than a decade.”
Cairo correspondent, Al-Monitor: “For the first time since the ousting of Egypt’s late Islamist President Mohammed Morsi in 2013, the Muslim Brotherhood announced that it would no longer seek to claim power should the regime of current President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi fall. In a very controversial statement, the organization announced that it will stop any political activity in the country and allow its members to engage in political action through other parties.”
Alison Pargeter, Jamestown Foundation’s Terrorism Monitor: “The death of former Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi on June 17 sent shockwaves through the Muslim Brotherhood. While Morsi’s death may have been predictable given the former president’s ill health and Egypt’s notoriously poor prison conditions, it still dealt another heavy blow to a movement already on its knees following six years of relentless repression.”
Mohammed Hanafi, Al-Monitor: “Egypt mixing sports, politics with new party-affiliated club”
Zvi Bar’el, Haaretz: “Egypt’s Most Expensive Film Ever Shows Nationalism Is Always on the Agenda. This year’s blockbuster ‘The Passage’ makes evident that despite political shifts, the line of defense of the country’s artists and intellectuals hasn’t changed”
Iran Parliamentary – February 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Theocratic Republic
Some analysts argue that “moderates” or “reformers” won Iran’s 2016 parliamentary elections, but the country’s opaque politics make it difficult to know for sure how to characterize the results. All candidates must be approved by the Guardian Council, which rejected thousands during the 2016 elections. Parliament is less powerful than the Supreme Leader and other institutions such as the Guardian Council, the judiciary, and the security services. The elections are happening in the context of escalating tensions with the United States.
Shaun Walker, The Guardian: “Trump allies’ visit throws light on secretive Iranian opposition group. MEK operates out of compound in rural Albania and has been described as having cult-like attributes”
Eli Lake, Bloomberg: “Iran’s Reform Movement Died 20 Years Ago: Today’s ‘moderate’ president was part of a deadly crackdown on student protesters in the summer of 1999.”
Alireza Nader, Los Angeles Times: “The regime is already the weakest and most unpopular it has ever been within Iran and throughout the Middle East….[A] broad barandazan (regime overthrow) movement has emerged that not only rejects the absolute rule of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but the concept of reforms and ‘moderation’ espoused by such figures as former President Mohammad Khatami and Rouhani.”
Karin Laub and Mohammed Nasiri, AP: “In Iran, some women forgo hijabs in show of defiance”
Jon Gambrell, AP: “AP Interview: Rising Iran politician has intelligence ties”
Libya Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: In Transition
Libya remains in a civil war. The international community wants Libya to hold presidential or parliamentary elections this year. Unclear when the elections will actually happen.
Amy Mackinnon, Foreign Policy: “The Evolution of a Russian Troll: Alexander Malkevich, whose employees were detained in Libya, is part of Moscow’s efforts to create a ‘concert of chaos’ around the globe.”
Kirill Semenov, Al-Monitor: “Security forces of Libya’s internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) reportedly arrested two Russian men in Tripoli in May, though the arrests were not announced until early July. Tripoli authorities claim that the Russians possessed laptops and memory sticks that revealed their work in a Russian “troll factory” that allegedly sought to influence upcoming elections in Libya and a number of African countries.”
Yury Barmin, Al Jazeera: “Russia’s endgame in Libya: The Kremlin sees its relations with the GNA and Khalifa Haftar as purely transactional.”
Carla Bleiker, DW: “The warring factions in Libya’s stalemated conflict don’t seem to be interested in a diplomatic solution. The United States could use its clout in order to trigger discussions — but it appears to be doing the opposite.”
Anas El Gomati, War on the Rocks: “Libya’s Civil War: Navigating its dangerous new phase”
Past Elections
Iraq, Kurdistan Regional Parliamentary – September 30, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Autonomous Region within a Federal Parliamentary Republic
Dana Taib Menmy, Al-Monitor: “Iraqi Kurdistan Cabinet finally sees daylight after 9 months: The semi-autonomous region held parliamentary elections Sept. 30, but hadn’t been able to form a Cabinet due to rivalries among the political parties — mainly between the KDP and the PUK. Out of the KRG legislature’s 111 seats, the KDP won the election by securing 45 seats. The PUK came second with 21 seats, and Gorran came third with 12.”
Raya Jalabi, Reuters: “Two years after a failed independence bid plunged Iraq’s Kurdistan Region into months of instability, the new regional prime minister said his priority was strengthening ties with Baghdad, signalling dreams of self-rule should be put on hold.”
Lawk Ghafuri, Rudaw: “Demonstrators took to the streets of Kirkuk on Friday, against the proposition of a Kurdish candidate for Kirkuk governor by the Patriotic Union for Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) on Thursday [July 11].’”
Middle East This Week – July 16, 2019
Leave a Comment
Last Updated: July 24, 2019 by 21votes
July 16, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore the greater Middle East and North Africa on Tuesdays. Click the map pins.
Algeria Presidential – July 4, 2019 (cancelled)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Algerian politics are dominated by Le Pouvoir, a small group of elite from the military and the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, aged 82 and unable to walk or talk, was going to run for a fifth term in the election originally scheduled for April, but tens of thousands of Algerians protestedfor two months, and Bouteflika resigned. The election was moved to July 4, but then the Constitutional Council cancelled the vote and has not set a new date. Protests continue. Protesters are demanding assurances that any new elections will be free and fair.
Marc Daou and Tom Wheeldon, France24: “Algeria popular movement remains ‘strong’ – but fears ‘business as usual’: Protesters took to the streets in Algeria for the 21st consecutive week on Friday. Activists and experts say the popular movement is still determined to press its demands but the government is hardening its stance.”
Anne-Marie Bissada, RFI: “Algeria’s caretaker government has surpassed the constitutional deadline to hold elections to replace ousted President Abdelaziz Bouteflika. With no date set for future polls and a political crisis crippling the country, many Algerians are wondering what happens next. The current head of the interim government is to remain.”
France24: “Algerian army chief Ahmed Gaid Salah on Wednesday [July 10] reaffirmed his support for interim president Abdelkader Bensalah, whose term ended July 9 but who remains head of state in the absence of elections.”
Al Jazeera: “Algeria’s army chief cautions against calls for ‘civilian state’: Gaid Salah terms the demand a ‘poisonous idea’ that has come amid persisting protests.”
Al Jazeera: “Islamist leader elected new speaker of Algeria parliament. Slimane Chenine’s election marks first time in Algeria’s history an opposition member voted as parliamentary speaker.”
Hamid Ould Ahmed, Reuters: “Chenine, 47, is the youngest lawmaker to be elected as head of the National Assembly and his party has 15 of 462 seats in parliament, where the [National Liberation Front (FLN), which has ruled Algeria since independence in 1962] and its coalition partners have an overwhelming majority.”
Pakistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Partial Provincial Assembly - July 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Twenty-one seats out of total 145 seats in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Provincial Assembly are up for election on July 20. The seats are for constituencies that were previously part of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), which merged with KP in 2018 (KP was called the Northwest Frontier Province until 2010). Since FATA did not have a provincial assembly, this marks the first time that voters in those areas will vote for provincial representatives.
Abubakar Siddique, Sailab Mehsud, and Umar Daraz Wazir, RFE/RL’s Gandhara: “The first-ever election for representing Pakistan’s former Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) in the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has generated considerable interest and raised hopes. But days ahead of the crucial polls on July 20, candidates from the region are complaining of an uneven election field, restrictions, and fears of rigging.”
The Nation: “The KP-Fata merger has made it possible to give women a chance to represent the deprived and neglected women in the assemblies. For the first time, a woman hailing from the newly merged tribal district of Khyber has got the election ticket from Awami National Party on the general seat in PK-106 of Khyber district.”
Adnan Aamir, Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter: “Pakistan on the brink of civil dictatorship: Imran Khan is accused of persecuting political opponents and the media under the guise of an anti-corruption crackdown.”
Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Israel – nicknamed the “startup nation” – is a vibrant democracy. In September, Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s center-right Likud was unable to form a coalition following April’s elections. While parties friendly to Netanyahu won more seats than those friendly to Netanyahu’s main rival, former IDF chief Benny Gantz, coalition talks collapsed over the issue of drafting ultra-Orthodox into the military. One of Likud’s coalition partners, Avgidor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, supported conscription – and refused to budge – while religious parties adamantly opposed it, highlighting growing tensions between secular and religious Israelis. Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset and called for new elections rather than giving Gantz the chance to try to form a government. Additionally, Netanyahu faces corruption charges. The elections are happening in the middle of U.S. President Donald Trump’s quixotic attempt to seal the “deal of the century” between Israelis and Palestinians.
Brian Bennett, Time: “’Only the Strong Survive.’ How Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu Is Testing the Limits of Power”
Jack Khoury, Haaretz: “SIsrael’s Do-over Election Gives Arab Parties an Opportunity – One They’re Refusing to Seize: The parties’ failure to resurrect the Joint List points to a deep lack of trust from within – and in facing the Arab public”
Gil Hoffman, Jerusalem Post: “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took aim at Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Liberman on Monday, hosting 25 former deputy mayors, branch heads and other key activists from Liberman’s party who have shifted to Likud ahead of the September 17 election.”
Ben Sales, Jewish Telegraphic Agency: “Avigdor Liberman, the man who stopped Benjamin Netanyahu from forming an Israeli government this year, has a new campaign slogan: ‘Make Israel Normal Again.’”
Raoul Wootliff, Times of Israel: “Gantz says ‘in talks’ with Likud reps over unity government sans Netanyahu. Blue and White chief claims dissenting members of ruling party ‘getting ready for the day after’ PM”
Afghanistan Presidential – September 28, 2019 (further delays possible)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Islamic Republic
Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, marred by violence and administrative problems. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election. Presidential campaign is gearing up right in the middle of peacenegotiations between the United States and the Taliban.
Pamela Constable, Washington Post: “Marathon talks between Taliban and prominent Afghans conclude with positive — if vague — peace ‘road map’”
Omar Samad, Atlantic Council’s New Atlanticist: “An Afghan Opening: Opportunities, Challenges, and Pitfalls”
Anisa Shaheed, TOLO News: “Election observers on Thursday [July 11] criticized the Afghan government and international donors for not providing the budget of the upcoming presidential polls which has been estimated at $149 million.”
Nabila Ashrafi, TOLO News: “The all-women candidates’ group recently submitted a number of documents and evidence about alleged fraud in the parliamentary elections to relevant institutions but they said that they have heard nothing in response. They said that the Afghan government did not bother to hear their voice, hence, they have gathered near the embassy so that the US ambassador hears their voice.”
Ibrahim Rahmini, VOA: “Unknown armed assailants killed a reporter for a local radio station in Afghanistan’s eastern Paktia province. Nader Shah Sahibzada, a reporter for Voice of Gardiz local radio, went missing on Friday and authorities found his dead body on Saturday near his home in capital city, Gardiz.”
Tunisia Parliamentary – October 6, 2019 and Presidential – November 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and this year, the country will hold the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Ennadha, which presents itself as a moderate, pro-democracy Islamist party but holds some retrograde views, won the first post-Ben Ali elections, but in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the secularist Nidaa Tounes won the most seats. In 2018, Tunisia held long-delayed municipal elections, which saw independent candidates win the most seats, followed by Ennadha. President Beji Caid Essebsi of Nidaa Tounes, who became Tunisia’s first democratically-elected president in 2014, has said he will not seek a second term this year, even though the constitution allows it, saying it was time to “open the door to the youth” (Essebsi is 92). Prime Minister Youssef Chahed broke off from Nidaa Tounes to form Tahya Tounes, another secularist party, and it looks to be a close contest between the fractious secularist parties and Ennadha (Machrouu Tounes, another secularist party, broke from Nidaa Tounes in 2016 and currently has 25 seats in parliament).
Terrorist attacks and Essebsi’s sudden illness threatened to throw a wrench in Tunisian politics.
Simon Speakman Cordall, The Independent: “Meet the man hoping to become the Muslim world’s first openly gay president: ‘I was jailed for three months for sodomy in 2013. There’s no shame for me. There’s no shame for any of us,’ says Mounir Baatour”
Rikar Hussein, VOA: “As an estimated 6.7 million Tunisian voters prepare to head to the polls to elect their next government later this year, a growing fear of terrorist attacks could risk undermining the democratic process in the North African country, some analysts warn.”
Sarah Yerkes, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: “Tunisians are increasingly turning toward U.S. rivals for support. This shift in attitude toward the United States comes amidst a political crisis that highlights the fragility of the country’s democratic transition.”
Egypt Local – Due 2019 (delays possible)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Egypt’s first local elections in over 10 years are supposed to happen this year, but a date has not been set. The country has not had elected local government since 2011. Last year’s presidential election, which saw President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi re-elected for a second term, was neither free nor fair, and took place in an environment of harassment and intimidation of the opposition.
Hassan Abdel Zaher, The Arab Weekly: “Political parties in Egypt began preparing for the municipal elections, which are expected this year. The Egyptian House of Representatives has scheduled discussion on a draft measure that would regulate municipal councils. Enactment of the legislation would lead to elections, the first at that level in more than a decade.”
Cairo correspondent, Al-Monitor: “For the first time since the ousting of Egypt’s late Islamist President Mohammed Morsi in 2013, the Muslim Brotherhood announced that it would no longer seek to claim power should the regime of current President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi fall. In a very controversial statement, the organization announced that it will stop any political activity in the country and allow its members to engage in political action through other parties.”
Alison Pargeter, Jamestown Foundation’s Terrorism Monitor: “The death of former Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi on June 17 sent shockwaves through the Muslim Brotherhood. While Morsi’s death may have been predictable given the former president’s ill health and Egypt’s notoriously poor prison conditions, it still dealt another heavy blow to a movement already on its knees following six years of relentless repression.”
Mohammed Hanafi, Al-Monitor: “Egypt mixing sports, politics with new party-affiliated club”
Zvi Bar’el, Haaretz: “Egypt’s Most Expensive Film Ever Shows Nationalism Is Always on the Agenda. This year’s blockbuster ‘The Passage’ makes evident that despite political shifts, the line of defense of the country’s artists and intellectuals hasn’t changed”
Iran Parliamentary – February 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Theocratic Republic
Some analysts argue that “moderates” or “reformers” won Iran’s 2016 parliamentary elections, but the country’s opaque politics make it difficult to know for sure how to characterize the results. All candidates must be approved by the Guardian Council, which rejected thousands during the 2016 elections. Parliament is less powerful than the Supreme Leader and other institutions such as the Guardian Council, the judiciary, and the security services. The elections are happening in the context of escalating tensions with the United States.
Shaun Walker, The Guardian: “Trump allies’ visit throws light on secretive Iranian opposition group. MEK operates out of compound in rural Albania and has been described as having cult-like attributes”
Eli Lake, Bloomberg: “Iran’s Reform Movement Died 20 Years Ago: Today’s ‘moderate’ president was part of a deadly crackdown on student protesters in the summer of 1999.”
Alireza Nader, Los Angeles Times: “The regime is already the weakest and most unpopular it has ever been within Iran and throughout the Middle East….[A] broad barandazan (regime overthrow) movement has emerged that not only rejects the absolute rule of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but the concept of reforms and ‘moderation’ espoused by such figures as former President Mohammad Khatami and Rouhani.”
Karin Laub and Mohammed Nasiri, AP: “In Iran, some women forgo hijabs in show of defiance”
https://twitter.com/AmirToumaj/status/1150821305391943680
Jon Gambrell, AP: “AP Interview: Rising Iran politician has intelligence ties”
Libya Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: In Transition
Libya remains in a civil war. The international community wants Libya to hold presidential or parliamentary elections this year. Unclear when the elections will actually happen.
Amy Mackinnon, Foreign Policy: “The Evolution of a Russian Troll: Alexander Malkevich, whose employees were detained in Libya, is part of Moscow’s efforts to create a ‘concert of chaos’ around the globe.”
Kirill Semenov, Al-Monitor: “Security forces of Libya’s internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) reportedly arrested two Russian men in Tripoli in May, though the arrests were not announced until early July. Tripoli authorities claim that the Russians possessed laptops and memory sticks that revealed their work in a Russian “troll factory” that allegedly sought to influence upcoming elections in Libya and a number of African countries.”
Yury Barmin, Al Jazeera: “Russia’s endgame in Libya: The Kremlin sees its relations with the GNA and Khalifa Haftar as purely transactional.”
Carla Bleiker, DW: “The warring factions in Libya’s stalemated conflict don’t seem to be interested in a diplomatic solution. The United States could use its clout in order to trigger discussions — but it appears to be doing the opposite.”
Anas El Gomati, War on the Rocks: “Libya’s Civil War: Navigating its dangerous new phase”
Iraq, Kurdistan Regional Parliamentary - September 30, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Autonomous Region within a Federal Parliamentary Republic
Dana Taib Menmy, Al-Monitor: “Iraqi Kurdistan Cabinet finally sees daylight after 9 months: The semi-autonomous region held parliamentary elections Sept. 30, but hadn’t been able to form a Cabinet due to rivalries among the political parties — mainly between the KDP and the PUK. Out of the KRG legislature’s 111 seats, the KDP won the election by securing 45 seats. The PUK came second with 21 seats, and Gorran came third with 12.”
Raya Jalabi, Reuters: “Two years after a failed independence bid plunged Iraq’s Kurdistan Region into months of instability, the new regional prime minister said his priority was strengthening ties with Baghdad, signalling dreams of self-rule should be put on hold.”
Lawk Ghafuri, Rudaw: “Demonstrators took to the streets of Kirkuk on Friday, against the proposition of a Kurdish candidate for Kirkuk governor by the Patriotic Union for Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) on Thursday. The predominantly Arab and Turkmen protestors held Iraqi flags and chanted in support of acting Governor and Kirkuk native Rakan Saeed Al-Jabouri, a Sunni Arab. Some held posters reading ‘Daesh [the Islamic State, ISIS] and separatists are the same,’ referring to people who voted for Kurdish independence in the September 25, 2017 referendum, while another chanted ‘we are Baathist, we are Saddamis.’”
Upcoming Elections
Algeria Presidential – July 4, 2019 (cancelled)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Algerian politics are dominated by Le Pouvoir, a small group of elite from the military and the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, aged 82 and unable to walk or talk, was going to run for a fifth term in the election originally scheduled for April, but tens of thousands of Algerians protested for two months, and Bouteflika resigned. The election was moved to July 4, but then the Constitutional Council cancelled the vote and has not set a new date. Protests continue. Protesters are demanding assurances that any new elections will be free and fair.
Marc Daou and Tom Wheeldon, France24: “Algeria popular movement remains ‘strong’ – but fears ‘business as usual’: Protesters took to the streets in Algeria for the 21st consecutive week on Friday. Activists and experts say the popular movement is still determined to press its demands but the government is hardening its stance.”
Anne-Marie Bissada, RFI: “Algeria’s caretaker government has surpassed the constitutional deadline to hold elections to replace ousted President Abdelaziz Bouteflika. With no date set for future polls and a political crisis crippling the country, many Algerians are wondering what happens next. The current head of the interim government is to remain.”
France24: “Algerian army chief Ahmed Gaid Salah on Wednesday [July 10] reaffirmed his support for interim president Abdelkader Bensalah, whose term ended July 9 but who remains head of state in the absence of elections.”
Al Jazeera: “Algeria’s army chief cautions against calls for ‘civilian state’: Gaid Salah terms the demand a ‘poisonous idea’ that has come amid persisting protests.”
Al Jazeera: “Islamist leader elected new speaker of Algeria parliament. Slimane Chenine’s election marks first time in Algeria’s history an opposition member voted as parliamentary speaker.”
Hamid Ould Ahmed, Reuters: “Chenine, 47, is the youngest lawmaker to be elected as head of the National Assembly and his party has 15 of 462 seats in parliament, where the [National Liberation Front (FLN), which has ruled Algeria since independence in 1962] and its coalition partners have an overwhelming majority.”
Pakistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Partial Provincial Assembly – July 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Twenty-one seats out of total 145 seats in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Provincial Assembly are up for election on July 20. The seats are for constituencies that were previously part of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), which merged with KP in 2018 (KP was called the Northwest Frontier Province until 2010). Since FATA did not have a provincial assembly, this marks the first time that voters in those areas will vote for provincial representatives.
Abubakar Siddique, Sailab Mehsud, and Umar Daraz Wazir, RFE/RL’s Gandhara: “The first-ever election for representing Pakistan’s former Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) in the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has generated considerable interest and raised hopes. But days ahead of the crucial polls on July 20, candidates from the region are complaining of an uneven election field, restrictions, and fears of rigging.”
The Nation: “The KP-Fata merger has made it possible to give women a chance to represent the deprived and neglected women in the assemblies. For the first time, a woman hailing from the newly merged tribal district of Khyber has got the election ticket from Awami National Party on the general seat in PK-106 of Khyber district.”
Adnan Aamir, Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter: “Pakistan on the brink of civil dictatorship: Imran Khan is accused of persecuting political opponents and the media under the guise of an anti-corruption crackdown.”
Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Israel – nicknamed the “startup nation” – is a vibrant democracy. In September, Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s center-right Likud was unable to form a coalition following April’s elections. While parties friendly to Netanyahu won more seats than those friendly to Netanyahu’s main rival, former IDF chief Benny Gantz, coalition talks collapsed over the issue of drafting ultra-Orthodox into the military. One of Likud’s coalition partners, Avgidor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, supported conscription – and refused to budge – while religious parties adamantly opposed it, highlighting growing tensions between secular and religious Israelis. Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset and called for new elections rather than giving Gantz the chance to try to form a government. Additionally, Netanyahu faces corruption charges. The elections are happening in the middle of U.S. President Donald Trump’s quixotic attempt to seal the “deal of the century” between Israelis and Palestinians.
Brian Bennett, Time: “’Only the Strong Survive.’ How Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu Is Testing the Limits of Power”
Jack Khoury, Haaretz: “SIsrael’s Do-over Election Gives Arab Parties an Opportunity – One They’re Refusing to Seize: The parties’ failure to resurrect the Joint List points to a deep lack of trust from within – and in facing the Arab public”
Gil Hoffman, Jerusalem Post: “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took aim at Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Liberman on Monday, hosting 25 former deputy mayors, branch heads and other key activists from Liberman’s party who have shifted to Likud ahead of the September 17 election.”
Ben Sales, Jewish Telegraphic Agency: “Avigdor Liberman, the man who stopped Benjamin Netanyahu from forming an Israeli government this year, has a new campaign slogan: ‘Make Israel Normal Again.’”
Raoul Wootliff, Times of Israel: “Gantz says ‘in talks’ with Likud reps over unity government sans Netanyahu. Blue and White chief claims dissenting members of ruling party ‘getting ready for the day after’ PM”
Afghanistan Presidential – September 28, 2019 (further delays possible)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Islamic Republic
Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, marred by violence and administrative problems. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election. Presidential campaign is gearing up right in the middle of peacenegotiations between the United States and the Taliban.
Pamela Constable, Washington Post: “Marathon talks between Taliban and prominent Afghans conclude with positive — if vague — peace ‘road map’”
Omar Samad, Atlantic Council’s New Atlanticist: “An Afghan Opening: Opportunities, Challenges, and Pitfalls”
Anisa Shaheed, TOLO News: “Election observers on Thursday [July 11] criticized the Afghan government and international donors for not providing the budget of the upcoming presidential polls which has been estimated at $149 million.”
Nabila Ashrafi, TOLO News: “The all-women candidates’ group recently submitted a number of documents and evidence about alleged fraud in the parliamentary elections to relevant institutions but they said that they have heard nothing in response. They said that the Afghan government did not bother to hear their voice, hence, they have gathered near the embassy so that the US ambassador hears their voice.”
Ibrahim Rahmini, VOA: “Unknown armed assailants killed a reporter for a local radio station in Afghanistan’s eastern Paktia province. Nader Shah Sahibzada, a reporter for Voice of Gardiz local radio, went missing on Friday and authorities found his dead body on Saturday near his home in capital city, Gardiz.”
Tunisia Parliamentary – October 6, 2019 and Presidential – November 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and this year, the country will hold the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Ennadha, which presents itself as a moderate, pro-democracy Islamist party but holds some retrograde views, won the first post-Ben Ali elections, but in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the secularist Nidaa Tounes won the most seats. In 2018, Tunisia held long-delayed municipal elections, which saw independent candidates win the most seats, followed by Ennadha. President Beji Caid Essebsi of Nidaa Tounes, who became Tunisia’s first democratically-elected president in 2014, has said he will not seek a second term this year, even though the constitution allows it, saying it was time to “open the door to the youth” (Essebsi is 92). Prime Minister Youssef Chahed broke off from Nidaa Tounes to form Tahya Tounes, another secularist party, and it looks to be a close contest between the fractious secularist parties and Ennadha (Machrouu Tounes, another secularist party, broke from Nidaa Tounes in 2016 and currently has 25 seats in parliament).
Terrorist attacks and Essebsi’s sudden illness threatened to throw a wrench in Tunisian politics.
Simon Speakman Cordall, The Independent: “Meet the man hoping to become the Muslim world’s first openly gay president: ‘I was jailed for three months for sodomy in 2013. There’s no shame for me. There’s no shame for any of us,’ says Mounir Baatour”
Rikar Hussein, VOA: “As an estimated 6.7 million Tunisian voters prepare to head to the polls to elect their next government later this year, a growing fear of terrorist attacks could risk undermining the democratic process in the North African country, some analysts warn.”
Sarah Yerkes, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: “Tunisians are increasingly turning toward U.S. rivals for support. This shift in attitude toward the United States comes amidst a political crisis that highlights the fragility of the country’s democratic transition.”
Egypt Local – Due 2019 (delays possible)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Egypt’s first local elections in over 10 years are supposed to happen this year, but a date has not been set. The country has not had elected local government since 2011. Last year’s presidential election, which saw President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi re-elected for a second term, was neither free nor fair, and took place in an environment of harassment and intimidation of the opposition.
Hassan Abdel Zaher, The Arab Weekly: “Political parties in Egypt began preparing for the municipal elections, which are expected this year. The Egyptian House of Representatives has scheduled discussion on a draft measure that would regulate municipal councils. Enactment of the legislation would lead to elections, the first at that level in more than a decade.”
Cairo correspondent, Al-Monitor: “For the first time since the ousting of Egypt’s late Islamist President Mohammed Morsi in 2013, the Muslim Brotherhood announced that it would no longer seek to claim power should the regime of current President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi fall. In a very controversial statement, the organization announced that it will stop any political activity in the country and allow its members to engage in political action through other parties.”
Alison Pargeter, Jamestown Foundation’s Terrorism Monitor: “The death of former Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi on June 17 sent shockwaves through the Muslim Brotherhood. While Morsi’s death may have been predictable given the former president’s ill health and Egypt’s notoriously poor prison conditions, it still dealt another heavy blow to a movement already on its knees following six years of relentless repression.”
Mohammed Hanafi, Al-Monitor: “Egypt mixing sports, politics with new party-affiliated club”
Zvi Bar’el, Haaretz: “Egypt’s Most Expensive Film Ever Shows Nationalism Is Always on the Agenda. This year’s blockbuster ‘The Passage’ makes evident that despite political shifts, the line of defense of the country’s artists and intellectuals hasn’t changed”
Iran Parliamentary – February 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Theocratic Republic
Some analysts argue that “moderates” or “reformers” won Iran’s 2016 parliamentary elections, but the country’s opaque politics make it difficult to know for sure how to characterize the results. All candidates must be approved by the Guardian Council, which rejected thousands during the 2016 elections. Parliament is less powerful than the Supreme Leader and other institutions such as the Guardian Council, the judiciary, and the security services. The elections are happening in the context of escalating tensions with the United States.
Shaun Walker, The Guardian: “Trump allies’ visit throws light on secretive Iranian opposition group. MEK operates out of compound in rural Albania and has been described as having cult-like attributes”
Eli Lake, Bloomberg: “Iran’s Reform Movement Died 20 Years Ago: Today’s ‘moderate’ president was part of a deadly crackdown on student protesters in the summer of 1999.”
Alireza Nader, Los Angeles Times: “The regime is already the weakest and most unpopular it has ever been within Iran and throughout the Middle East….[A] broad barandazan (regime overthrow) movement has emerged that not only rejects the absolute rule of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but the concept of reforms and ‘moderation’ espoused by such figures as former President Mohammad Khatami and Rouhani.”
Karin Laub and Mohammed Nasiri, AP: “In Iran, some women forgo hijabs in show of defiance”
Jon Gambrell, AP: “AP Interview: Rising Iran politician has intelligence ties”
Libya Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: In Transition
Libya remains in a civil war. The international community wants Libya to hold presidential or parliamentary elections this year. Unclear when the elections will actually happen.
Amy Mackinnon, Foreign Policy: “The Evolution of a Russian Troll: Alexander Malkevich, whose employees were detained in Libya, is part of Moscow’s efforts to create a ‘concert of chaos’ around the globe.”
Kirill Semenov, Al-Monitor: “Security forces of Libya’s internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) reportedly arrested two Russian men in Tripoli in May, though the arrests were not announced until early July. Tripoli authorities claim that the Russians possessed laptops and memory sticks that revealed their work in a Russian “troll factory” that allegedly sought to influence upcoming elections in Libya and a number of African countries.”
Yury Barmin, Al Jazeera: “Russia’s endgame in Libya: The Kremlin sees its relations with the GNA and Khalifa Haftar as purely transactional.”
Carla Bleiker, DW: “The warring factions in Libya’s stalemated conflict don’t seem to be interested in a diplomatic solution. The United States could use its clout in order to trigger discussions — but it appears to be doing the opposite.”
Anas El Gomati, War on the Rocks: “Libya’s Civil War: Navigating its dangerous new phase”
Past Elections
Iraq, Kurdistan Regional Parliamentary – September 30, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Autonomous Region within a Federal Parliamentary Republic
Dana Taib Menmy, Al-Monitor: “Iraqi Kurdistan Cabinet finally sees daylight after 9 months: The semi-autonomous region held parliamentary elections Sept. 30, but hadn’t been able to form a Cabinet due to rivalries among the political parties — mainly between the KDP and the PUK. Out of the KRG legislature’s 111 seats, the KDP won the election by securing 45 seats. The PUK came second with 21 seats, and Gorran came third with 12.”
Raya Jalabi, Reuters: “Two years after a failed independence bid plunged Iraq’s Kurdistan Region into months of instability, the new regional prime minister said his priority was strengthening ties with Baghdad, signalling dreams of self-rule should be put on hold.”
Lawk Ghafuri, Rudaw: “Demonstrators took to the streets of Kirkuk on Friday, against the proposition of a Kurdish candidate for Kirkuk governor by the Patriotic Union for Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) on Thursday [July 11].’”
The Year Ahead: Middle East
Egypt local (due 2019 – date not set – delays likely); Libya (international community wants presidential or legislative elections this year – delays highly likely); Algeria presidential (July 4 – cancelled); Israel snap parliamentary (September 17); Pakistan KP partial provincial legislature (July 20); Afghanistan presidential (September 28); Tunisia parliamentary and presidential (October 6 and November 17); Iraq provincial (November 16); Iran parliamentary (February 2020); Palestinian Authority legislative (elections overdue – new government says they aim to hold elections but no date set)
A voter in Egypt’s 2012 presidential election. The country is due to head back to the polls this year for local elections. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Yuli Weeks, VOA (public domain)
21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.
Comments
Share this:
Related
Category: This Week Tags: Afghanistan, Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Libya, Pakistan, Tunisia