Upcoming Elections
Germany State Elections – September 1, 2019 (Saxony and Brandenburg) and October 27, 2019 (Thuringia)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Germany has a federal system with 16 Länder (states) that each have their own constitution, parliament (Landtag) and state government. The states have autonomy over internal policy, but do not have their own tax authority, and political parties are quite centralized at the federal level. Three states in the east hold elections this year: Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia. Brandenburg is currently governed by a coalition of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the populist Left (die Linke). Saxony has a grand coalition of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD). The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to do well in all three state elections in the east this year. AfD won the most votes in Brandenburg in the European Parliament elections this year. It beat CDU in Saxony, and came close in Thuringia.
However, AfD did not succeed in winning its first mayoral contest. In a closely-watched mayoral election in Görlitz (nicknamed Görliwood because many films have been shot there), in Saxony, when CDU, the Greens, and SPD teamed up to defeat the AfD candidate in the runoff.
AFP: “Germany’s far-right AfD party ‘tearing itself apart’ Rising hardline sentiment is deepening divisions within the AfD, which has experienced splits and leadership coups.”
DW: “A group of AfD politicians have called on the party to distance itself from its firebrand leader in the eastern state of Thuringia, Björn Höcke. The party’s top brass did not sign, but did join in the criticism of Höcke.”
Peter H. Koepf, The German Times: “The intolerance and hate shown by AfD representatives in the Bundestag is by no means commonplace in Germany”
Raymond Colit and Arne Delfs, Bloomberg: “It wasn’t your usual meeting of mayors in Germany’s presidential palace this week. One had been stabbed in the throat, another received death threats and most feared for their loved ones. They’ve all become victims of a wave of political violence that culminated last month in what appears to be the first assassination of a politician by a right-wing extremist since the end of the Nazi-era”
Joshua Posaner, Politico: “German CDU chief to replace von der Leyen as defense minister. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer will reportedly take on the position on Wednesday.”
Austria Snap Parliamentary – September 29, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Austria’s government fell in a no-confidence vote – the first in Austria’s history – in May following the “Ibiza-gate” scandal involving the far-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), which had been part of the coalition headed by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz of the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache was filmed on the Spanish island of Ibiza offering state contracts in exchange for money to a woman who claimed to be the niece of a Russian oligarch. New elections will take place in September.
Herb Keinon, Jerusalem Post: “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu provided Austrian People’s Party head Sebastian Kurz with a great sound byte in his current election campaign to become chancellor again, calling him a ‘great leader for Austria.’”
Bulgaria Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
In the European elections in May, both the governing center-right GERB party and the main opposition Socialist Party ran on a pro-European platform, despite some members of both parties wanting to take a more Eurosceptic tone. As a result, GERB won, followed by the Socialists. The Volya party, which partners with Marine Le Pen in the European Parliament, did not win any seats. However, turnout was very low – 30 percent. Bulgaria is beginning to emerge from a long stretch of chaotic politics characterized by a series of early elections and caretaker governments, but a number of problems remain.
Angel Krasimirov and Tsvetelia Tsolova, Reuters: “Bulgaria’s finance minister apologized to the country on Tuesday after admitting hackers had stolen millions of taxpayers’ financial data in an attack that one researcher said may have compromised nearly every adult’s personal records.”
Portugal Parliamentary – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
The two main parties, center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and leftist Socialist Party (PS), regularly alternate in power. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa from PSD won the 2016 presidential election. In the 2015 parliamentary elections, PSD won a plurality of seats and briefly formed a minority government, which collapsed after less than two months. PS leader Antonio Costa formed a left-wing coalition and became prime minister.
Andrei Khalip, Reuters: “Portugal’s ruling Socialists extended their lead over the opposition in an opinion poll released on Friday three months before a parliamentary vote, putting them closer to winning a majority after years of solid, if slowing, economic growth.”
Poland Parliamentary – Expected October/November 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.
Portia Kentish, Emerging Europe: “After a two-day forum concluded last week, the largest opposition party in Poland, Civic Platform, has launched a policy programme in preparation for parliamentary elections in October. The liberal-conservative party has outlined six key policy areas, dubbed the Schetyna’s six after leader Grzegorz Schetyna, a clear reference to the ruling the Law and Justice (PiS) party’s Kaczynski five.”
Reuters: “Poland’s biggest opposition group, the European Coalition, plans to eliminate coal from power production by 2040, its leader said on Saturday as he unveiled pledges ahead of an autumn election to be fought against the coal-friendly, conservative government.”
Romania Presidential – November 10, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Since communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu fell in 1989, Romania has become a free democracy but politics are volatile – the office of the prime minister has changed hands eight times since 2014. Corruption and weak rule of law remain serious problems. Liviu Dragnea, head of the governing left-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD), is currently in prison for abuse of power. PSD only got 23 percent of votes in the May 2019 European Parliament election, half of the support it had in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The 2014 presidential elections handed a surprise victory to Klaus Iohannis, the center-right mayor of Sibiu in Transylvania, who defeated then-Prime Minister Victor Ponta in the runoff. Iohannis plans to run for a second term.
Romania Insider: “Romania’s main ruling party, the Social Democratic Party (PSD), decided on Monday, July 15, to have its own candidate for the presidential elections in November, Mediafax reported…The party will organize a national congress on August 3 to validate its candidate.”
RFE/RL: “President Klaus Iohannis has accused Romania’s government of ignoring the will of its own citizens by not adopting anti-corruption recommendations made by a European anti-graft body. Iohannis said on July 10 that it was “extremely worrying” that Romania was still in the focus of European institutions.”
Kit Gillet, The Guardian: “‘I want my country’s image to be good’: has Romania’s ruling party moved on? After huge public protests, Viorica Dăncilă must prove she is not just a proxy for the former PSD leader who was jailed for corruption”
Gabi Reigh, Open Democracy: “What’s next for Romania? ’In the city, we want change, the young people are demanding change. There is a real division between urban and rural Romania, a division between the old and the young.’”
Czech Republic Parliamentary – by October 2021 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Krystof Chamonikolas and Peter Laca, Bloomberg: “The Czech Social Democrats set a final condition for staying in the government, prolonging a political crisis that has brought the ruling coalition to the brink of collapse.”
Michael Bernhard , Petra Guasti and Lenka Bustikova, Washington Post’s Monkey Cage: “Czech protesters are trying to defend democracy, 30 years after the Velvet Revolution. Can they succeed? Our research shows that, yes, demonstrations can prevent the erosion of democracy. Here’s what’s going on.”
Stratfor: “Eastern Europe Witnesses a Quiet Revolution
Past Elections
Greece Snap Parliamentary – July 7, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
After Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ left-wing populist Syriza suffered heavy losses during the European Parliament and local elections in May, Tsipras called a snap election. Elections were originally scheduled for October of this year. The center-right New Democracy, headed by Kyriakos Mitsotakis, won the most votes in the European elections and won key mayoral contests, and is projected to win the parliamentary polls. Syriza’s coalition partner, the far-right Independent Greeks (Anel), announced that they would not run candidates after winning less than one percent in the European elections.
Theodore Pelagidis, Brookings Institution: “Greek elections: The first defeat of populism in Europe?”
Ian Bremmer, Time: “The Greek Election Brings Hope for a Country in Need”
Artemis Seaford And Benjamin Haddad, Foreign Affairs: “Greece’s New Groove. Why Athens Is No Longer Europe’s Black Sheep”
Aristides N. Hatzis, Washington Post: “Has Greece found the formula for defeating populism?”
Albania Local – June 30, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Albania is in the middle of a tense political standoff between Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Socialists and the main opposition center-right Democratic Party, led by Lulzim Basha. All but two MPs from the Democratic Party and one from the Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI) surrendered their parliamentary mandates in February, and have led a series of protests marred by violence. The opposition demands Rama’s resignation and new elections, and boycotted the local elections. President Ilir Meta cancelled the June 30 local elections and called on parties to reduce political tensions, but Rama proceeded with the polls anyway, and without the participation of the opposition, almost all seats went uncontested.
Exit Albania: “The opposition Democratic Party (PD) demanded the prosecution to investigate into Socialist Party election administrators in 14 polling stations in Kukës for having allegedly engaged in vote rigging on June 30.”
Gjerji Erebara, Balkan Insight: “MPs from the ruling Socialist Party want to prevent a state institute tasked with probing Communist-era crimes in Albania from studying incidents that happened during World War II.”
Bojan Stojkovski, ZDNet: “Communist museum, nightclub: Now Albania’s notorious pyramid turns tech hub. Tirana’s Pyramid building has had quite a journey since it was created to honor Albania’s communist dictator.”
European Parliament – May 23-26, 2019
Matina Stevis-Gridneff, New York Times: “The first woman ever chosen to be the European Union’s top executive clinched her selection on Tuesday, narrowly winning approval from the European Parliament after her unexpected nomination as a compromise candidate.”
Dalibor Rohac, American Enterprise Institute: “What is the state of the European Union after a month of haggling over its top jobs? Not great, not terrible, as the oft-quoted line from an excellent recent TV show goes.”
Spain Snap Parliamentary – April 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
The incumbent Socialists won the April snap elections, which Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called after failing to pass a budget. The far-right Vox won seats, the first time the far-right has been in parliament since Spain became a democracy (Vox also won seats in Andalusia’s regional elections in December, the first time for the far-right to enter any Spanish legislative body in the history of Spanish democracy).
Ian Mount, Financial Times: “Spain’s caretaker prime minister Pedro Sánchez said on Monday that coalition talks between his socialists and the anti-establishment Podemos party had collapsed, pushing the country closer to repeat elections in the autumn.”
Mark Nayler, Foreign Policy: “A coalition between Pedro Sánchez’s Socialists and Albert Rivera’s Ciudadanos could prevent a fourth election in as many years—but voters are unlikely to buy it.”
Estonia Parliamentary – March 3, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Estonia is the poster child for post-communist success. Kaja Kallas’ liberal Reform Party won Estonia’s March 2019 elections to the Riigikogu (parliament), but Prime Minister Juri Ratas pulled together a coalition with his Centre Party, the conservative Isamaa (Fatherland), and the far-right nationalist Conservative People’s Party (EKRE), despite having promised before the election that he would not do a deal with EKRE. The Centre Party is nominally liberal but actually pro-Kremlin (the party is a member of Renew Europe, the European party formerly known as the Alliance of Liberals and Democrat in Europe, and also has a cooperation protocol with Vladimir Putin’s United Russia). The newly-formed liberal Estonia 200 did not win any seats. EKRE doubled its support from the previous elections and leader Mart Helme and his son Martin were both made ministers in the new government. They both flashed a white supremacist hand gesture at their swearing-in.
Richard Milne, Michael Peel, and Mehreen Khan, Financial Times: “Ever since a far-right nationalist party joined a new coalition government earlier this year, the liberal architects of the Baltic country’s post-communist rise fear that its reputation will be tarnished and relations with the EU could falter.”
ERR News: “Incomes for three of the five elected political parties in Estonia, plus one party which is not represented at the Riigikogu, for the second quarter of 2019, have been made available by Baltic News Service. Party donations dropped for two parties, Reform and the Conservative People’s Party of Estonia (EKRE), most likely due to the post-election effect.”
ERR News: “Karin Kaup Lapõnin, the new executive director of the non-parliamentary Estonia 200, said that Estonia 200 is still operating, noting that its main goal currently is to develop its local branches across Estonia. The party likewise intends to run in the 2021 local government elections.”
Europe This Week – July 17, 2019
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Last Updated: July 25, 2019 by 21votes
July 17, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Europe on Wednesdays. Click the map pins.
Germany State Elections – September 1, 2019 (Saxony and Brandenburg) and October 27, 2019 (Thuringia)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Germany has a federal system with 16 Länder (states) that each have their own constitution, parliament (Landtag) and state government. The states have autonomy over internal policy, but do not have their own tax authority, and political parties are quite centralized at the federal level. Three states in the east hold elections this year: Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia. Brandenburg is currently governed by a coalition of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the populist Left (die Linke). Saxony has a grand coalition of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD). The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to do well in all three state elections in the east this year. AfD won the most votes in Brandenburg in the European Parliament elections this year. It beat CDU in Saxony, and came close in Thuringia.
However, AfD did not succeed in winning its first mayoral contest. In a closely-watched mayoral election in Görlitz (nicknamed Görliwood because many films have been shot there), in Saxony, when CDU, the Greens, and SPD teamed up to defeat the AfD candidate in the runoff.
AFP: “Germany’s far-right AfD party ‘tearing itself apart’ Rising hardline sentiment is deepening divisions within the AfD, which has experienced splits and leadership coups.”
DW: “A group of AfD politicians have called on the party to distance itself from its firebrand leader in the eastern state of Thuringia, Björn Höcke. The party’s top brass did not sign, but did join in the criticism of Höcke.”
Peter H. Koepf, The German Times: “The intolerance and hate shown by AfD representatives in the Bundestag is by no means commonplace in Germany”
Raymond Colit and Arne Delfs, Bloomberg: “It wasn’t your usual meeting of mayors in Germany’s presidential palace this week. One had been stabbed in the throat, another received death threats and most feared for their loved ones. They’ve all become victims of a wave of political violence that culminated last month in what appears to be the first assassination of a politician by a right-wing extremist since the end of the Nazi-era”
Joshua Posaner, Politico: “German CDU chief to replace von der Leyen as defense minister. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer will reportedly take on the position on Wednesday.”
Austria Snap Parliamentary – September 29, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Austria’s government fell in a no-confidence vote – the first in Austria’s history – in May following the “Ibiza-gate” scandal involving the far-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), which had been part of the coalition headed by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz of the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache was filmed on the Spanish island of Ibiza offering state contracts in exchange for money to a woman who claimed to be the niece of a Russian oligarch. New elections will take place in September.
Herb Keinon, Jerusalem Post: “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu provided Austrian People’s Party head Sebastian Kurz with a great sound byte in his current election campaign to become chancellor again, calling him a ‘great leader for Austria.’”
Bulgaria Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
In the European elections in May, both the governing center-right GERB party and the main opposition Socialist Party ran on a pro-European platform, despite some members of both parties wanting to take a more Eurosceptic tone. As a result, GERB won, followed by the Socialists. The Volya party, which partners with Marine Le Pen in the European Parliament, did not win any seats. However, turnout was very low – 30 percent. Bulgaria is beginning to emerge from a long stretch of chaotic politics characterized by a series of early elections and caretaker governments, but a number of problems remain.
Angel Krasimirov and Tsvetelia Tsolova, Reuters: “Bulgaria’s finance minister apologized to the country on Tuesday after admitting hackers had stolen millions of taxpayers’ financial data in an attack that one researcher said may have compromised nearly every adult’s personal records.”
Portugal Parliamentary - October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
The two main parties, center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and leftist Socialist Party (PS), regularly alternate in power. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa from PSD won the 2016 presidential election. In the 2015 parliamentary elections, PSD won a plurality of seats and briefly formed a minority government, which collapsed after less than two months. PS leader Antonio Costa formed a left-wing coalition and became prime minister.
Andrei Khalip, Reuters: “Portugal’s ruling Socialists extended their lead over the opposition in an opinion poll released on Friday three months before a parliamentary vote, putting them closer to winning a majority after years of solid, if slowing, economic growth.”
Poland Parliamentary – Expected October/November 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.
Portia Kentish, Emerging Europe: “After a two-day forum concluded last week, the largest opposition party in Poland, Civic Platform, has launched a policy programme in preparation for parliamentary elections in October. The liberal-conservative party has outlined six key policy areas, dubbed the Schetyna’s six after leader Grzegorz Schetyna, a clear reference to the ruling the Law and Justice (PiS) party’s Kaczynski five.”
Reuters: “Poland’s biggest opposition group, the European Coalition, plans to eliminate coal from power production by 2040, its leader said on Saturday as he unveiled pledges ahead of an autumn election to be fought against the coal-friendly, conservative government.”
Romania Presidential – November 10, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Since communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu fell in 1989, Romania has become a free democracy but politics are volatile – the office of the prime minister has changed hands eight times since 2014. Corruption and weak rule of law remain serious problems. Liviu Dragnea, head of the governing left-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD), is currently in prison for abuse of power. PSD only got 23 percent of votes in the May 2019 European Parliament election, half of the support it had in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The 2014 presidential elections handed a surprise victory to Klaus Iohannis, the center-right mayor of Sibiu in Transylvania, who defeated then-Prime Minister Victor Ponta in the runoff. Iohannis plans to run for a second term.
Romania Insider: “Romania’s main ruling party, the Social Democratic Party (PSD), decided on Monday, July 15, to have its own candidate for the presidential elections in November, Mediafax reported…,The party will organize a national congress on August 3 to validate its candidate.”
RFE/RL: “President Klaus Iohannis has accused Romania’s government of ignoring the will of its own citizens by not adopting anti-corruption recommendations made by a European anti-graft body. Iohannis said on July 10 that it was “extremely worrying” that Romania was still in the focus of European institutions.”
Kit Gillet, The Guardian: “‘I want my country’s image to be good’: has Romania’s ruling party moved on? After huge public protests, Viorica Dăncilă must prove she is not just a proxy for the former PSD leader who was jailed for corruption”
Gabi Reigh, Open Democracy: “What’s next for Romania? ’In the city, we want change, the young people are demanding change. There is a real division between urban and rural Romania, a division between the old and the young.’”
Czech Republic Parliamentary – by October 2021 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Krystof Chamonikolas and Peter Laca, Bloomberg: “The Czech Social Democrats set a final condition for staying in the government, prolonging a political crisis that has brought the ruling coalition to the brink of collapse.”
Michael Bernhard , Petra Guasti and Lenka Bustikova, Washington Post’s Monkey Cage: “Czech protesters are trying to defend democracy, 30 years after the Velvet Revolution. Can they succeed? Our research shows that, yes, demonstrations can prevent the erosion of democracy. Here’s what’s going on.”
Stratfor: “Eastern Europe Witnesses a Quiet Revolution”
Greece Snap Parliamentary – July 7, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
After Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ left-wing populist Syriza suffered heavy losses during the European Parliament and local elections in May, Tsipras called a snap election. Elections were originally scheduled for October of this year. The center-right New Democracy, headed by Kyriakos Mitsotakis, won the most votes in the European elections and won key mayoral contests, and is projected to win the parliamentary polls. Syriza’s coalition partner, the far-right Independent Greeks (Anel), announced that they would not run candidates after winning less than one percent in the European elections.
Theodore Pelagidis, Brookings Institution: “Greek elections: The first defeat of populism in Europe?”
Ian Bremmer, Time: “The Greek Election Brings Hope for a Country in Need”
Artemis Seaford And Benjamin Haddad, Foreign Affairs: “Greece’s New Groove. Why Athens Is No Longer Europe’s Black Sheep”
Aristides N. Hatzis, kWashington Post: “Has Greece found the formula for defeating populism?”
Albania Local – June 30, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Albania is in the middle of a tense political standoff between Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Socialists and the main opposition center-right Democratic Party, led by Lulzim Basha. All but two MPs from the Democratic Party and one from the Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI) surrendered their parliamentary mandates in February, and have led a series of protests marred by violence. The opposition demands Rama’s resignation and new elections, and boycotted the local elections. President Ilir Meta cancelled the June 30 local elections and called on parties to reduce political tensions, but Rama proceeded with the polls anyway, and without the participation of the opposition, almost all seats went uncontested.
Exit Albania: “The opposition Democratic Party (PD) demanded the prosecution to investigate into Socialist Party election administrators in 14 polling stations in Kukës for having allegedly engaged in vote rigging on June 30.”
Gjerji Erebara, Balkan Insight: “MPs from the ruling Socialist Party want to prevent a state institute tasked with probing Communist-era crimes in Albania from studying incidents that happened during World War II.”
Bojan Stojkovski, ZDNet: “Communist museum, nightclub: Now Albania’s notorious pyramid turns tech hub. Tirana’s Pyramid building has had quite a journey since it was created to honor Albania’s communist dictator.”
Spain Snap Parliamentary – April 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
The incumbent Socialists won the April snap elections, which Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called after failing to pass a budget. The far-right Vox won seats, the first time the far-right has been in parliament since Spain became a democracy (Vox also won seats in Andalusia’s regional elections in December, the first time for the far-right to enter any Spanish legislative body in the history of Spanish democracy).
Ian Mount, Financial Times: “Spain’s caretaker prime minister Pedro Sánchez said on Monday that coalition talks between his socialists and the anti-establishment Podemos party had collapsed, pushing the country closer to repeat elections in the autumn.”
Mark Nayler, Foreign Policy: “A coalition between Pedro Sánchez’s Socialists and Albert Rivera’s Ciudadanos could prevent a fourth election in as many years—but voters are unlikely to buy it.”
Estonia Parliamentary – March 3, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Estonia is the poster child for post-communist success. Kaja Kallas’ liberal Reform Party won Estonia’s March 2019 elections to the Riigikogu (parliament), but Prime Minister Juri Ratas pulled together a coalition with his Centre Party, the conservative Isamaa (Fatherland), and the far-right nationalist Conservative People’s Party (EKRE), despite having promised before the election that he would not do a deal with EKRE. The Centre Party is nominally liberal but actually pro-Kremlin (the party is a member of Renew Europe, the European party formerly known as the Alliance of Liberals and Democrat in Europe, and also has a cooperation protocol with Vladimir Putin’s United Russia). The newly-formed liberal Estonia 200 did not win any seats. EKRE doubled its support from the previous elections and leader Mart Helme and his son Martin were both made ministers in the new government. They both flashed a white supremacist hand gesture at their swearing-in.
Richard Milne, Michael Peel, and Mehreen Khan, Financial Times: “Ever since a far-right nationalist party joined a new coalition government earlier this year, the liberal architects of the Baltic country’s post-communist rise fear that its reputation will be tarnished and relations with the EU could falter.”
ERR News: “Incomes for three of the five elected political parties in Estonia, plus one party which is not represented at the Riigikogu, for the second quarter of 2019, have been made available by Baltic News Service. Party donations dropped for two parties, Reform and the Conservative People’s Party of Estonia (EKRE), most likely due to the post-election effect.”
ERR News: “Karin Kaup Lapõnin, the new executive director of the non-parliamentary Estonia 200, said that Estonia 200 is still operating, noting that its main goal currently is to develop its local branches across Estonia. The party likewise intends to run in the 2021 local government elections.”
European Parliament - May 23-26, 2019
Matina Stevis-Gridneff, New York Times: “The first woman ever chosen to be the European Union’s top executive clinched her selection on Tuesday, narrowly winning approval from the European Parliament after her unexpected nomination as a compromise candidate.”
Dalibor Rohac, American Enterprise Institute: “What is the state of the European Union after a month of haggling over its top jobs? Not great, not terrible, as the oft-quoted line from an excellent recent TV show goes.”
Upcoming Elections
Germany State Elections – September 1, 2019 (Saxony and Brandenburg) and October 27, 2019 (Thuringia)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Germany has a federal system with 16 Länder (states) that each have their own constitution, parliament (Landtag) and state government. The states have autonomy over internal policy, but do not have their own tax authority, and political parties are quite centralized at the federal level. Three states in the east hold elections this year: Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia. Brandenburg is currently governed by a coalition of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the populist Left (die Linke). Saxony has a grand coalition of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD). The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to do well in all three state elections in the east this year. AfD won the most votes in Brandenburg in the European Parliament elections this year. It beat CDU in Saxony, and came close in Thuringia.
However, AfD did not succeed in winning its first mayoral contest. In a closely-watched mayoral election in Görlitz (nicknamed Görliwood because many films have been shot there), in Saxony, when CDU, the Greens, and SPD teamed up to defeat the AfD candidate in the runoff.
AFP: “Germany’s far-right AfD party ‘tearing itself apart’ Rising hardline sentiment is deepening divisions within the AfD, which has experienced splits and leadership coups.”
DW: “A group of AfD politicians have called on the party to distance itself from its firebrand leader in the eastern state of Thuringia, Björn Höcke. The party’s top brass did not sign, but did join in the criticism of Höcke.”
Peter H. Koepf, The German Times: “The intolerance and hate shown by AfD representatives in the Bundestag is by no means commonplace in Germany”
Raymond Colit and Arne Delfs, Bloomberg: “It wasn’t your usual meeting of mayors in Germany’s presidential palace this week. One had been stabbed in the throat, another received death threats and most feared for their loved ones. They’ve all become victims of a wave of political violence that culminated last month in what appears to be the first assassination of a politician by a right-wing extremist since the end of the Nazi-era”
Joshua Posaner, Politico: “German CDU chief to replace von der Leyen as defense minister. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer will reportedly take on the position on Wednesday.”
Austria Snap Parliamentary – September 29, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Austria’s government fell in a no-confidence vote – the first in Austria’s history – in May following the “Ibiza-gate” scandal involving the far-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), which had been part of the coalition headed by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz of the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache was filmed on the Spanish island of Ibiza offering state contracts in exchange for money to a woman who claimed to be the niece of a Russian oligarch. New elections will take place in September.
Herb Keinon, Jerusalem Post: “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu provided Austrian People’s Party head Sebastian Kurz with a great sound byte in his current election campaign to become chancellor again, calling him a ‘great leader for Austria.’”
Bulgaria Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
In the European elections in May, both the governing center-right GERB party and the main opposition Socialist Party ran on a pro-European platform, despite some members of both parties wanting to take a more Eurosceptic tone. As a result, GERB won, followed by the Socialists. The Volya party, which partners with Marine Le Pen in the European Parliament, did not win any seats. However, turnout was very low – 30 percent. Bulgaria is beginning to emerge from a long stretch of chaotic politics characterized by a series of early elections and caretaker governments, but a number of problems remain.
Angel Krasimirov and Tsvetelia Tsolova, Reuters: “Bulgaria’s finance minister apologized to the country on Tuesday after admitting hackers had stolen millions of taxpayers’ financial data in an attack that one researcher said may have compromised nearly every adult’s personal records.”
Portugal Parliamentary – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
The two main parties, center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and leftist Socialist Party (PS), regularly alternate in power. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa from PSD won the 2016 presidential election. In the 2015 parliamentary elections, PSD won a plurality of seats and briefly formed a minority government, which collapsed after less than two months. PS leader Antonio Costa formed a left-wing coalition and became prime minister.
Andrei Khalip, Reuters: “Portugal’s ruling Socialists extended their lead over the opposition in an opinion poll released on Friday three months before a parliamentary vote, putting them closer to winning a majority after years of solid, if slowing, economic growth.”
Poland Parliamentary – Expected October/November 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.
Portia Kentish, Emerging Europe: “After a two-day forum concluded last week, the largest opposition party in Poland, Civic Platform, has launched a policy programme in preparation for parliamentary elections in October. The liberal-conservative party has outlined six key policy areas, dubbed the Schetyna’s six after leader Grzegorz Schetyna, a clear reference to the ruling the Law and Justice (PiS) party’s Kaczynski five.”
Reuters: “Poland’s biggest opposition group, the European Coalition, plans to eliminate coal from power production by 2040, its leader said on Saturday as he unveiled pledges ahead of an autumn election to be fought against the coal-friendly, conservative government.”
Romania Presidential – November 10, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Since communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu fell in 1989, Romania has become a free democracy but politics are volatile – the office of the prime minister has changed hands eight times since 2014. Corruption and weak rule of law remain serious problems. Liviu Dragnea, head of the governing left-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD), is currently in prison for abuse of power. PSD only got 23 percent of votes in the May 2019 European Parliament election, half of the support it had in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The 2014 presidential elections handed a surprise victory to Klaus Iohannis, the center-right mayor of Sibiu in Transylvania, who defeated then-Prime Minister Victor Ponta in the runoff. Iohannis plans to run for a second term.
Romania Insider: “Romania’s main ruling party, the Social Democratic Party (PSD), decided on Monday, July 15, to have its own candidate for the presidential elections in November, Mediafax reported…The party will organize a national congress on August 3 to validate its candidate.”
RFE/RL: “President Klaus Iohannis has accused Romania’s government of ignoring the will of its own citizens by not adopting anti-corruption recommendations made by a European anti-graft body. Iohannis said on July 10 that it was “extremely worrying” that Romania was still in the focus of European institutions.”
Kit Gillet, The Guardian: “‘I want my country’s image to be good’: has Romania’s ruling party moved on? After huge public protests, Viorica Dăncilă must prove she is not just a proxy for the former PSD leader who was jailed for corruption”
Gabi Reigh, Open Democracy: “What’s next for Romania? ’In the city, we want change, the young people are demanding change. There is a real division between urban and rural Romania, a division between the old and the young.’”
Czech Republic Parliamentary – by October 2021 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Krystof Chamonikolas and Peter Laca, Bloomberg: “The Czech Social Democrats set a final condition for staying in the government, prolonging a political crisis that has brought the ruling coalition to the brink of collapse.”
Michael Bernhard , Petra Guasti and Lenka Bustikova, Washington Post’s Monkey Cage: “Czech protesters are trying to defend democracy, 30 years after the Velvet Revolution. Can they succeed? Our research shows that, yes, demonstrations can prevent the erosion of democracy. Here’s what’s going on.”
Stratfor: “Eastern Europe Witnesses a Quiet Revolution
Past Elections
Greece Snap Parliamentary – July 7, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
After Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ left-wing populist Syriza suffered heavy losses during the European Parliament and local elections in May, Tsipras called a snap election. Elections were originally scheduled for October of this year. The center-right New Democracy, headed by Kyriakos Mitsotakis, won the most votes in the European elections and won key mayoral contests, and is projected to win the parliamentary polls. Syriza’s coalition partner, the far-right Independent Greeks (Anel), announced that they would not run candidates after winning less than one percent in the European elections.
Theodore Pelagidis, Brookings Institution: “Greek elections: The first defeat of populism in Europe?”
Ian Bremmer, Time: “The Greek Election Brings Hope for a Country in Need”
Artemis Seaford And Benjamin Haddad, Foreign Affairs: “Greece’s New Groove. Why Athens Is No Longer Europe’s Black Sheep”
Aristides N. Hatzis, Washington Post: “Has Greece found the formula for defeating populism?”
Albania Local – June 30, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Albania is in the middle of a tense political standoff between Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Socialists and the main opposition center-right Democratic Party, led by Lulzim Basha. All but two MPs from the Democratic Party and one from the Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI) surrendered their parliamentary mandates in February, and have led a series of protests marred by violence. The opposition demands Rama’s resignation and new elections, and boycotted the local elections. President Ilir Meta cancelled the June 30 local elections and called on parties to reduce political tensions, but Rama proceeded with the polls anyway, and without the participation of the opposition, almost all seats went uncontested.
Exit Albania: “The opposition Democratic Party (PD) demanded the prosecution to investigate into Socialist Party election administrators in 14 polling stations in Kukës for having allegedly engaged in vote rigging on June 30.”
Gjerji Erebara, Balkan Insight: “MPs from the ruling Socialist Party want to prevent a state institute tasked with probing Communist-era crimes in Albania from studying incidents that happened during World War II.”
Bojan Stojkovski, ZDNet: “Communist museum, nightclub: Now Albania’s notorious pyramid turns tech hub. Tirana’s Pyramid building has had quite a journey since it was created to honor Albania’s communist dictator.”
European Parliament – May 23-26, 2019
Matina Stevis-Gridneff, New York Times: “The first woman ever chosen to be the European Union’s top executive clinched her selection on Tuesday, narrowly winning approval from the European Parliament after her unexpected nomination as a compromise candidate.”
Dalibor Rohac, American Enterprise Institute: “What is the state of the European Union after a month of haggling over its top jobs? Not great, not terrible, as the oft-quoted line from an excellent recent TV show goes.”
Spain Snap Parliamentary – April 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
The incumbent Socialists won the April snap elections, which Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called after failing to pass a budget. The far-right Vox won seats, the first time the far-right has been in parliament since Spain became a democracy (Vox also won seats in Andalusia’s regional elections in December, the first time for the far-right to enter any Spanish legislative body in the history of Spanish democracy).
Ian Mount, Financial Times: “Spain’s caretaker prime minister Pedro Sánchez said on Monday that coalition talks between his socialists and the anti-establishment Podemos party had collapsed, pushing the country closer to repeat elections in the autumn.”
Mark Nayler, Foreign Policy: “A coalition between Pedro Sánchez’s Socialists and Albert Rivera’s Ciudadanos could prevent a fourth election in as many years—but voters are unlikely to buy it.”
Estonia Parliamentary – March 3, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Estonia is the poster child for post-communist success. Kaja Kallas’ liberal Reform Party won Estonia’s March 2019 elections to the Riigikogu (parliament), but Prime Minister Juri Ratas pulled together a coalition with his Centre Party, the conservative Isamaa (Fatherland), and the far-right nationalist Conservative People’s Party (EKRE), despite having promised before the election that he would not do a deal with EKRE. The Centre Party is nominally liberal but actually pro-Kremlin (the party is a member of Renew Europe, the European party formerly known as the Alliance of Liberals and Democrat in Europe, and also has a cooperation protocol with Vladimir Putin’s United Russia). The newly-formed liberal Estonia 200 did not win any seats. EKRE doubled its support from the previous elections and leader Mart Helme and his son Martin were both made ministers in the new government. They both flashed a white supremacist hand gesture at their swearing-in.
Richard Milne, Michael Peel, and Mehreen Khan, Financial Times: “Ever since a far-right nationalist party joined a new coalition government earlier this year, the liberal architects of the Baltic country’s post-communist rise fear that its reputation will be tarnished and relations with the EU could falter.”
ERR News: “Incomes for three of the five elected political parties in Estonia, plus one party which is not represented at the Riigikogu, for the second quarter of 2019, have been made available by Baltic News Service. Party donations dropped for two parties, Reform and the Conservative People’s Party of Estonia (EKRE), most likely due to the post-election effect.”
ERR News: “Karin Kaup Lapõnin, the new executive director of the non-parliamentary Estonia 200, said that Estonia 200 is still operating, noting that its main goal currently is to develop its local branches across Estonia. The party likewise intends to run in the 2021 local government elections.”
The Year Ahead: Europe
Germany, Brandenburg and Saxony states (September 1); Norway local (September 9); Portugal, Madeiran regional (September 22); Austria snap parliamentary (September 29); Hungary local (October); Finland Åland regional parliament and local (October); Portugal parliamentary (October 6); Austria Vorarlberg state (October 13); Switzerland Federal Assembly (October 20); Bulgaria local (October 27); Germany Thuringia state (October 27); Poland parliamentary (November); Romania presidential (November 3); Croatia presidential (December); Slovakia parliamentary (March 2020); Serbia parliamentary, provincial, local (March or April 2020); Poland presidential (May 2020); Iceland presidential (June 2020)
21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.
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Category: This Week Tags: Albania, Austria, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Germany, Greece, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain