Upcoming Elections
Ukraine Snap Parliamentary – July 21, 2019 (following presidential elections earlier this year)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate largely centers on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.
Zelensky is new to politics, so his Servant of the People party does not currently have any seats in the Rada, but will be running candidates in the parliamentary polls with a hope of securing a majority. He is running a list exclusively of candidates who have never served in the Rada before. Poroshenko’s bloc won the most seats in the 2014 parliamentary elections, judged by observers to be competitive and credible, but because elections could not take place in Crimea and parts of Donbas, only 423 out of 450 seats were filled. The pro-Russian Opposition Bloc only won 29 seats, and support for pro-Moscow politicians has declined in the face of Russian aggression.
Yuras Karmanau, AP: “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s party has the most support in opinion polls ahead of Sunday’s snap parliamentary elections, but obtaining a solid majority in the Verkhovna Rada is far from certain.”
Molly Montgomery, Brookings Institution: “Zelenskiy’s popularity and the strength of his mandate are a double-edged sword. The parliamentary elections will give him the power necessary to fulfill his promises of systemic reform. Now he will have to use it.”
Jonah Fisher, BBC: “Volodymyr Zelensky: Why Ukraine’s new president needs second election win”
Matthias Williams and Margaryta Chornokondratenko, Reuters: “Now he is following his showbiz role model into politics because Zelenskiy, vowing to scrub Ukraine’s parliament clean of corruption and nepotism, invited members of the public to run on his party’s ticket at a parliamentary election on July 21….Nevertheless, no current or former lawmakers were allowed to run for Zelenskiy’s party.
Peter Dickinson, Atlantic Council’s Ukraine Alert: “Rise of the Zelennials: Ukraine’s Parliamentary Elections Signal Generational Shift”
AFP: “Zhan Beleniuk, an Olympic wrestler with Rwandan roots, is seeking to enter Ukraine’s parliament as the first mixed-race MP in a bid to overcome racist attitudes and support the country’s young new leader.”
Daniel McLaughlin, The Irish Times: “Eastern Ukraine’s divisive political survivor unmoved by changing times. Dominant Kharkiv mayor Hennadiy Kernes secure as the old guard faces election rout”
Michael Colborn, Balkan Insight: “Croatia Key to Ukrainian Far-Right’s International Ambitions: A far-right militant movement in Ukraine is forging ties with like-minded politicians and war veterans in European Union member Croatia, a BIRN investigation reveals.”
Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation
Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.
However, in last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.
Matthew Bodner, AP: “Russian opposition leaders led a rally in Moscow of about 1,000 people Sunday [July 14] to protest the city election commission’s decision that will keep several opposition candidates off the ballot in a local election.”
Yana Gorokhovskaia, Eurasianet: “Perspectives | Moscow’s local election: Ghosts, disqualification, and real political competition. By engaging the regime on its own terms, local opposition candidates are making it harder to exclude them.”
Ilya Arkhipov and Henry Meyer, Bloomberg: “With public support for President Vladimir Putin wilting, the Kremlin is considering changing election rules in an effort to secure its lock on parliament ahead of potentially vital decisions that could extend his rule.”
MEMRI: “In a July 15, 2019 article, Abbas Gallyamov, a former speechwriter for Russian President Vladimir Putin, commented on how prevailing moods among the people in the upcoming September 8 Russian regional elections will determine a drift towards greater independence from the center.”
Barbara von Ow-Freytag, Eurasianet: “Perspectives | Civic tech activism vs. digital authoritarianism: The sledgehammer approach to suppressing civic activism is not working for the internet.”
Meduza: “It’s impossible to get by without them: How pro-regime bot accounts have spread through Russia’s regional election campaigns and even clashed with one another”
Moldova Local – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.
The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.
Jasmina Kuzmanovic, Bloomberg: “New Cabinet Pledges ‘Quiet Revolution’ Against Graft in Moldova”
Maxim Edwards, Global Voices: “Moldova’s journalists cautiously optimistic after ‘silent revolution’: But they vow to remain critical of the new ‘anti-oligarchic’ government”
RFE/RL: “The European Commission has announced it will unlock millions of euros in financial aid to Moldova thanks to some progress on reforms made by the impoverished Eastern European country.”
Belarus Parliamentary – November 17, 2019 and Presidential – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)
Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.
Grigory Ioffe, Jamestown Foundation’s Eurasia Daily Monitor: “Twenty-Fifth Anniversary of Lukashenka’s Presidency in Belarus”
Vlad Kobets and David J. Kramer, EU Observer: “Time to pay attention to Belarus”
Azerbaijan Municipal – December 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Elections in Azerbaijan are neither competitive nor credible, and are marred by fraud and intimidation of the opposition and civil society. In last year’s presidential election, President Ilham Aliev, whose family has ruled Azerbaijan since 1993, won overwhelmingly after opposition candidates were jailed or barred from running. The opposition boycotted the 2015 parliamentary elections. The last municipal elections took place in 2014, and were dominated – unsurprisingly – by Aliev’s New Azerbaijan Party (YAP).
JAMNews: “A trial is going on in Baku in the case of journalist Sevinc Vaqifqizi, who stands accused of ‘insulting honour and dignity’ for her headline in a video about the presidential elections in Azerbaijan, which she shot in 2018.”
Kamran Mahmudov, OC Media: “Over the past six years, Azerbaijan’s civil society has deteriorated on all fronts. As the government continues to interfere with the activities of NGOs, prosecuting human rights defenders and political activists alike, banning them from travelling abroad, and freezing their bank accounts, the sector has become paralysed.”
Georgia Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Georgia holds competitive but imperfect elections. The eccentric oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili runs the show from behind the scenes, despite holding no official office. Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakasvili’s pro-European, pro-NATO United National Movement. Ivanishvili’s candidate, Salome Zurabishvili, won last year’s disputed presidential election. Georgian Dream did well in by-elections in May.
In June, a series of protests broke out over Russia, which occupies 20 percent of Georgia’s territory. The government’s brutal response could harm the coalition ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.
Onnik James Krikorian, Stratfor: “Protesters in Tbilisi have entered their fourth week of demonstrations in response to an official visit by Russian legislator Sergei Gavrilov to the country on June 20. During an inter-parliamentary meeting on Orthodoxy, Gavrilov angered many Georgians when he addressed the Georgian Parliament in Russian from the parliamentary speaker’s chair.”
JAMNews: “Georgian Dream head supports interior minister despite protests demanding resignation. Ruling Georgian Dream party chairman Bidzina Ivanishvili has spoken out for the first time since the Tbilisi protests began on June 20.”
Civil.ge: “Rustaveli Ave. Politics move to Facebook: More than ever, Georgia’s politics are played out on social media”
Propastop: “Regrettably, last month Georgia was again in the news due to protests and the ensuing Russian attacks on Georgia’s reputation and economy. An overview of the chronology of the crisis can be found in the Postimees article, Propastop seeks answers to questions that try to understand what happened from the point of view of propaganda and information warfare.”
Tina Maglakelidze, Atlantic Council’s New Atlanticist: “Georgia Protests are Not a Showcase of Russophobia”
Salome Samadashvili, Washington Post: “Georgia’s summer of discontent is an inflection point that should not be underestimated. There are two possible outcomes: another victory for Putin’s illiberalism, or a chance to prove him wrong.”
Past Elections
Armenia Snap Parliamentary – December 9, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
On December 9, Armenia’s snap parliamentary elections officially elected former MP and journalist Nikol Pashinyan as prime minister. The snap elections followed a series of protests that led to the resignation of Serzh Sargsyan, Armenia’s former president who became prime minister in an attempt to remain in power when faced with term limits. This has been dubbed Armenia’s “Velvet Revolution.” The Economist named Armenia country of the year for 2018.
RFE/RL: “Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian says his most important accomplishment during his first 14 months in office has been the development of an enduring democracy in the South Caucasus nation.”
Joshua Kucera and Ani Mejlumyan, Eurasianet: “New right-wing groups confront Armenia’s revolutionary government. They look like versions of the European far right. But many suspect a connection with the ousted government.”
Eurasia This Week – July 18, 2019
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Last Updated: July 25, 2019 by 21votes
July 18, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Eurasia on Thursdays. Click the map pins.
Ukraine Snap Parliamentary – July 21, 2019 (following presidential elections earlier this year)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate largely centers on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.
Zelensky is new to politics, so his Servant of the People party does not currently have any seats in the Rada, but will be running candidates in the parliamentary polls with a hope of securing a majority. He is running a list exclusively of candidates who have never served in the Rada before. Poroshenko’s bloc won the most seats in the 2014 parliamentary elections, judged by observers to be competitive and credible, but because elections could not take place in Crimea and parts of Donbas, only 423 out of 450 seats were filled. The pro-Russian Opposition Bloc only won 29 seats, and support for pro-Moscow politicians has declined in the face of Russian aggression.
Yuras Karmanau, AP: “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s party has the most support in opinion polls ahead of Sunday’s snap parliamentary elections, but obtaining a solid majority in the Verkhovna Rada is far from certain.”
Molly Montgomery, Brookings Institution: “Zelenskiy’s popularity and the strength of his mandate are a double-edged sword. The parliamentary elections will give him the power necessary to fulfill his promises of systemic reform. Now he will have to use it.”
Jonah Fisher, BBC: “Volodymyr Zelensky: Why Ukraine’s new president needs second election win”
Matthias Williams and Margaryta Chornokondratenko, Reuters: “Now he is following his showbiz role model into politics because Zelenskiy, vowing to scrub Ukraine’s parliament clean of corruption and nepotism, invited members of the public to run on his party’s ticket at a parliamentary election on July 21….Nevertheless, no current or former lawmakers were allowed to run for Zelenskiy’s party.
Peter Dickinson, Atlantic Council’s Ukraine Alert: “Rise of the Zelennials: Ukraine’s Parliamentary Elections Signal Generational Shift”
AFP: “Zhan Beleniuk, an Olympic wrestler with Rwandan roots, is seeking to enter Ukraine’s parliament as the first mixed-race MP in a bid to overcome racist attitudes and support the country’s young new leader.”
Daniel McLaughlin, The Irish Times: “Eastern Ukraine’s divisive political survivor unmoved by changing times. Dominant Kharkiv mayor Hennadiy Kernes secure as the old guard faces election rout”
Michael Colborn, Balkan Insight: “Croatia Key to Ukrainian Far-Right’s International Ambitions: A far-right militant movement in Ukraine is forging ties with like-minded politicians and war veterans in European Union member Croatia, a BIRN investigation reveals.”
Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation
Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.
However, in last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.
Matthew Bodner, AP: “Russian opposition leaders led a rally in Moscow of about 1,000 people Sunday [July 14] to protest the city election commission’s decision that will keep several opposition candidates off the ballot in a local election.”
Yana Gorokhovskaia, Eurasianet: “Moscow’s local election: Ghosts, disqualification, and real political competition. By engaging the regime on its own terms, local opposition candidates are making it harder to exclude them.”
Ilya Arkhipov and Henry Meyer, Bloomberg: “With public support for President Vladimir Putin wilting, the Kremlin is considering changing election rules in an effort to secure its lock on parliament ahead of potentially vital decisions that could extend his rule.”
MEMRI: “In a July 15, 2019 article, Abbas Gallyamov, a former speechwriter for Russian President Vladimir Putin, commented on how prevailing moods among the people in the upcoming September 8 Russian regional elections will determine a drift towards greater independence from the center.”
Barbara von Ow-Freytag, Eurasianet: “Perspectives | Civic tech activism vs. digital authoritarianism: The sledgehammer approach to suppressing civic activism is not working for the internet.”
Meduza: “It’s impossible to get by without them: How pro-regime bot accounts have spread through Russia’s regional election campaigns and even clashed with one another”
Moldova Local – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.
The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.
Jasmina Kuzmanovic, Bloomberg: “New Cabinet Pledges ‘Quiet Revolution’ Against Graft in Moldova”
Maxim Edwards, Global Voices: “Moldova’s journalists cautiously optimistic after ‘silent revolution’: But they vow to remain critical of the new ‘anti-oligarchic’ government”
RFE/RL: “The European Commission has announced it will unlock millions of euros in financial aid to Moldova thanks to some progress on reforms made by the impoverished Eastern European country.”
Belarus Parliamentary – November 17, 2019 and Presidential – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)
Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.
Grigory Ioffe, Jamestown Foundation’s Eurasia Daily Monitor: “Twenty-Fifth Anniversary of Lukashenka’s Presidency in Belarus”
Vlad Kobets and David J. Kramer, EU Observer: “Time to pay attention to Belarus”
Azerbaijan Municipal - December 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Elections in Azerbaijan are neither competitive nor credible, and are marred by fraud and intimidation of the opposition and civil society. In last year’s presidential election, President Ilham Aliev, whose family has ruled Azerbaijan since 1993, won overwhelmingly after opposition candidates were jailed or barred from running. The opposition boycotted the 2015 parliamentary elections. The last municipal elections took place in 2014, and were dominated – unsurprisingly – by Aliev’s New Azerbaijan Party (YAP).
JAMNews: “A trial is going on in Baku in the case of journalist Sevinc Vaqifqizi, who stands accused of ‘insulting honour and dignity’ for her headline in a video about the presidential elections in Azerbaijan, which she shot in 2018.”
Kamran Mahmudov, OC Media: “Over the past six years, Azerbaijan’s civil society has deteriorated on all fronts. As the government continues to interfere with the activities of NGOs, prosecuting human rights defenders and political activists alike, banning them from travelling abroad, and freezing their bank accounts, the sector has become paralysed.”
Georgia Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Georgia holds competitive but imperfect elections. The eccentric oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili runs the show from behind the scenes, despite holding no official office. Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakasvili’s pro-European, pro-NATO United National Movement. Ivanishvili’s candidate, Salome Zurabishvili, won last year’s disputed presidential election. Georgian Dream did well in by-elections in May.
In June, a series of protests broke out over Russia, which occupies 20 percent of Georgia’s territory. The government’s brutal response could harm the coalition ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.
Onnik James Krikorian, Stratfor: “Protesters in Tbilisi have entered their fourth week of demonstrations in response to an official visit by Russian legislator Sergei Gavrilov to the country on June 20. During an inter-parliamentary meeting on Orthodoxy, Gavrilov angered many Georgians when he addressed the Georgian Parliament in Russian from the parliamentary speaker’s chair.”
JAMNews: “Georgian Dream head supports interior minister despite protests demanding resignation. Ruling Georgian Dream party chairman Bidzina Ivanishvili has spoken out for the first time since the Tbilisi protests began on June 20.”
Civil.ge: “Rustaveli Ave. Politics move to Facebook: More than ever, Georgia’s politics are played out on social media”
Propastop: “Regrettably, last month Georgia was again in the news due to protests and the ensuing Russian attacks on Georgia’s reputation and economy. An overview of the chronology of the crisis can be found in the Postimees article, Propastop seeks answers to questions that try to understand what happened from the point of view of propaganda and information warfare.”
Tina Maglakelidze, Atlantic Council’s New Atlanticist: “Georgia Protests are Not a Showcase of Russophobia”
Salome Samadashvili, Washington Post: “Georgia’s summer of discontent is an inflection point that should not be underestimated. There are two possible outcomes: another victory for Putin’s illiberalism, or a chance to prove him wrong.”
Armenia Snap Parliamentary – December 9, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
On December 9, Armenia’s snap parliamentary elections officially elected former MP and journalist Nikol Pashinyan as prime minister. The snap elections followed a series of protests that led to the resignation of Serzh Sargsyan, Armenia’s former president who became prime minister in an attempt to remain in power when faced with term limits. This has been dubbed Armenia’s “Velvet Revolution.” The Economist named Armenia country of the year for 2018.
RFE/RL: “Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian says his most important accomplishment during his first 14 months in office has been the development of an enduring democracy in the South Caucasus nation.”
Joshua Kucera and Ani Mejlumyan, Eurasianet: “New right-wing groups confront Armenia’s revolutionary government. They look like versions of the European far right. But many suspect a connection with the ousted government.”
Upcoming Elections
Ukraine Snap Parliamentary – July 21, 2019 (following presidential elections earlier this year)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate largely centers on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.
Zelensky is new to politics, so his Servant of the People party does not currently have any seats in the Rada, but will be running candidates in the parliamentary polls with a hope of securing a majority. He is running a list exclusively of candidates who have never served in the Rada before. Poroshenko’s bloc won the most seats in the 2014 parliamentary elections, judged by observers to be competitive and credible, but because elections could not take place in Crimea and parts of Donbas, only 423 out of 450 seats were filled. The pro-Russian Opposition Bloc only won 29 seats, and support for pro-Moscow politicians has declined in the face of Russian aggression.
Yuras Karmanau, AP: “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s party has the most support in opinion polls ahead of Sunday’s snap parliamentary elections, but obtaining a solid majority in the Verkhovna Rada is far from certain.”
Molly Montgomery, Brookings Institution: “Zelenskiy’s popularity and the strength of his mandate are a double-edged sword. The parliamentary elections will give him the power necessary to fulfill his promises of systemic reform. Now he will have to use it.”
Jonah Fisher, BBC: “Volodymyr Zelensky: Why Ukraine’s new president needs second election win”
Matthias Williams and Margaryta Chornokondratenko, Reuters: “Now he is following his showbiz role model into politics because Zelenskiy, vowing to scrub Ukraine’s parliament clean of corruption and nepotism, invited members of the public to run on his party’s ticket at a parliamentary election on July 21….Nevertheless, no current or former lawmakers were allowed to run for Zelenskiy’s party.
Peter Dickinson, Atlantic Council’s Ukraine Alert: “Rise of the Zelennials: Ukraine’s Parliamentary Elections Signal Generational Shift”
AFP: “Zhan Beleniuk, an Olympic wrestler with Rwandan roots, is seeking to enter Ukraine’s parliament as the first mixed-race MP in a bid to overcome racist attitudes and support the country’s young new leader.”
Daniel McLaughlin, The Irish Times: “Eastern Ukraine’s divisive political survivor unmoved by changing times. Dominant Kharkiv mayor Hennadiy Kernes secure as the old guard faces election rout”
Michael Colborn, Balkan Insight: “Croatia Key to Ukrainian Far-Right’s International Ambitions: A far-right militant movement in Ukraine is forging ties with like-minded politicians and war veterans in European Union member Croatia, a BIRN investigation reveals.”
Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation
Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.
However, in last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.
Matthew Bodner, AP: “Russian opposition leaders led a rally in Moscow of about 1,000 people Sunday [July 14] to protest the city election commission’s decision that will keep several opposition candidates off the ballot in a local election.”
Yana Gorokhovskaia, Eurasianet: “Perspectives | Moscow’s local election: Ghosts, disqualification, and real political competition. By engaging the regime on its own terms, local opposition candidates are making it harder to exclude them.”
Ilya Arkhipov and Henry Meyer, Bloomberg: “With public support for President Vladimir Putin wilting, the Kremlin is considering changing election rules in an effort to secure its lock on parliament ahead of potentially vital decisions that could extend his rule.”
MEMRI: “In a July 15, 2019 article, Abbas Gallyamov, a former speechwriter for Russian President Vladimir Putin, commented on how prevailing moods among the people in the upcoming September 8 Russian regional elections will determine a drift towards greater independence from the center.”
Barbara von Ow-Freytag, Eurasianet: “Perspectives | Civic tech activism vs. digital authoritarianism: The sledgehammer approach to suppressing civic activism is not working for the internet.”
Meduza: “It’s impossible to get by without them: How pro-regime bot accounts have spread through Russia’s regional election campaigns and even clashed with one another”
Moldova Local – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.
The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.
Jasmina Kuzmanovic, Bloomberg: “New Cabinet Pledges ‘Quiet Revolution’ Against Graft in Moldova”
Maxim Edwards, Global Voices: “Moldova’s journalists cautiously optimistic after ‘silent revolution’: But they vow to remain critical of the new ‘anti-oligarchic’ government”
RFE/RL: “The European Commission has announced it will unlock millions of euros in financial aid to Moldova thanks to some progress on reforms made by the impoverished Eastern European country.”
Belarus Parliamentary – November 17, 2019 and Presidential – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)
Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.
Grigory Ioffe, Jamestown Foundation’s Eurasia Daily Monitor: “Twenty-Fifth Anniversary of Lukashenka’s Presidency in Belarus”
Vlad Kobets and David J. Kramer, EU Observer: “Time to pay attention to Belarus”
Azerbaijan Municipal – December 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Elections in Azerbaijan are neither competitive nor credible, and are marred by fraud and intimidation of the opposition and civil society. In last year’s presidential election, President Ilham Aliev, whose family has ruled Azerbaijan since 1993, won overwhelmingly after opposition candidates were jailed or barred from running. The opposition boycotted the 2015 parliamentary elections. The last municipal elections took place in 2014, and were dominated – unsurprisingly – by Aliev’s New Azerbaijan Party (YAP).
JAMNews: “A trial is going on in Baku in the case of journalist Sevinc Vaqifqizi, who stands accused of ‘insulting honour and dignity’ for her headline in a video about the presidential elections in Azerbaijan, which she shot in 2018.”
Kamran Mahmudov, OC Media: “Over the past six years, Azerbaijan’s civil society has deteriorated on all fronts. As the government continues to interfere with the activities of NGOs, prosecuting human rights defenders and political activists alike, banning them from travelling abroad, and freezing their bank accounts, the sector has become paralysed.”
Georgia Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Georgia holds competitive but imperfect elections. The eccentric oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili runs the show from behind the scenes, despite holding no official office. Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakasvili’s pro-European, pro-NATO United National Movement. Ivanishvili’s candidate, Salome Zurabishvili, won last year’s disputed presidential election. Georgian Dream did well in by-elections in May.
In June, a series of protests broke out over Russia, which occupies 20 percent of Georgia’s territory. The government’s brutal response could harm the coalition ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.
Onnik James Krikorian, Stratfor: “Protesters in Tbilisi have entered their fourth week of demonstrations in response to an official visit by Russian legislator Sergei Gavrilov to the country on June 20. During an inter-parliamentary meeting on Orthodoxy, Gavrilov angered many Georgians when he addressed the Georgian Parliament in Russian from the parliamentary speaker’s chair.”
JAMNews: “Georgian Dream head supports interior minister despite protests demanding resignation. Ruling Georgian Dream party chairman Bidzina Ivanishvili has spoken out for the first time since the Tbilisi protests began on June 20.”
Civil.ge: “Rustaveli Ave. Politics move to Facebook: More than ever, Georgia’s politics are played out on social media”
Propastop: “Regrettably, last month Georgia was again in the news due to protests and the ensuing Russian attacks on Georgia’s reputation and economy. An overview of the chronology of the crisis can be found in the Postimees article, Propastop seeks answers to questions that try to understand what happened from the point of view of propaganda and information warfare.”
Tina Maglakelidze, Atlantic Council’s New Atlanticist: “Georgia Protests are Not a Showcase of Russophobia”
Salome Samadashvili, Washington Post: “Georgia’s summer of discontent is an inflection point that should not be underestimated. There are two possible outcomes: another victory for Putin’s illiberalism, or a chance to prove him wrong.”
Past Elections
Armenia Snap Parliamentary – December 9, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
On December 9, Armenia’s snap parliamentary elections officially elected former MP and journalist Nikol Pashinyan as prime minister. The snap elections followed a series of protests that led to the resignation of Serzh Sargsyan, Armenia’s former president who became prime minister in an attempt to remain in power when faced with term limits. This has been dubbed Armenia’s “Velvet Revolution.” The Economist named Armenia country of the year for 2018.
RFE/RL: “Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian says his most important accomplishment during his first 14 months in office has been the development of an enduring democracy in the South Caucasus nation.”
Joshua Kucera and Ani Mejlumyan, Eurasianet: “New right-wing groups confront Armenia’s revolutionary government. They look like versions of the European far right. But many suspect a connection with the ousted government.”
The Year Ahead: Eurasia
Ukraine snap parliamentary (July 21); Russia local (September 8); Moldova local (October 20); Belarus parliamentary (November 17); Uzbekistan parliamentary (December 19); Azerbaijan local (December 27); Tajikistan parliamentary (March)
A car in Tbilisi, Georgia. Russia currently occupies 20 percent of Georgia’s territory. Photo credit: Flickr/Jelger (CC BY 2.0)
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Category: This Week Tags: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Russia, Ukraine