Upcoming Elections
Japan Legislative (half of upper house) – July 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
124 out of the 245 seats in the House of Councillors, the upper house of the bicameral National Diet, are up for election, for six-year terms. Shinzo Abe’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) seeks to gain a two-thirds majority in the upper house (which it already holds in the lower house with coalition partner Komeito, a Buddhist religious party) in order to revisit and possibly amend Japan’s pacifist constitution. Some had speculated that Abe would also call a snap election to the lower house to be held concurrently (otherwise, lower house elections are not due until 2021), but that Abe dismissed the idea. Nationwide local elections in April saw low turnout and little competition – more than 20 percent of seats were uncontested. Provincial gubernatorial elections are also happening throughout the year. Recent concerns over Japan’s pension systems looked set to threaten Abe’s grip on power, but his government won a no-confidence motion in the lower house and currently looks stable.
Motoko RIch and Eimi Yamamitsu, New York Times: “Good News for Shinzo Abe: Japan’s Young Voters Lean Right, if They Vote at All: Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is likely to move a step closer to his dream of becoming Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, with his party heavily favored to win a parliamentary election on Sunday.”
Craig Mark, South China Morning Post: “Explained: what’s at stake in Japan’s 2019 upper house election?”
Purnendra Jain, Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter: “Abe’s constitutional dream hinges on upper house election. Any change to Japan’s constitutional ‘peace clause’ needs securing a two-thirds majority in both houses of the Diet.”
Mina Pollmann, The Diplomat: “Japan Prepares for Upper House Elections: In addition to issues like constitutional reform, social questions like disabled and LGBT rights are also in the spotlight.”
River Davis, Wall Street Journal: “Japanese Party Takes Aim at Abe’s ‘Womenomics’ in Election Campaign. Parties in Japan seize on momentum, and shortcomings, of president’s campaign to help more women join the workforce”
Tomohiro Osaki, Japan Times: “Candidates with disabilities hope to lay foundation for inclusive Diet in Upper House election”
Aurelia George Mulgan, Australian National University’s East Asia Forum: “Is there a crisis of Japanese democracy?”
The Economist: “Japan’s dull election is a sign of ailing politics”
Papua New Guinea Local – July 20-25, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Papua New Guinea’s politics are chaotic, and no single party has ever commanded a majority in parliament. Coalitions shift frequently. James Marape became prime minister in May 2018 when former prime minister Peter O’Neill lost a no-confidence vote after being in power for eight years. It is unclear whether Marape will effectively address Papua New Guinea’s continuing problems of corruption and mismanagement of the economy. For the local elections, voters will elect representatives to 29 urban and 302 rural local level government assemblies.
AFP: “Papua New Guinea to boost security after mass killing escalates tribal war. The country’s police minister decries the ‘worst payback killing’ in PNG’s history”
Charlie Campbell, Time: “How a 7-Year-Old Girl Survived Papua New Guinea’s Crucible of Sorcery”
India, Haryana State and Maharashtra State Assemblies – October 2019 or November 2019 and Jharkhand State Assembly – November 2019 (plus a Lok Sabha by-election August 5, 2019 in Vellore)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
India has 29 states and seven union territories. Indian states are big – Maharashtra, whose capital is Mumbai, has 112 million people, Haryana 25 million, and Jharkhand 32 million. Coalitions headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently control all three state legislatures. The BJP won a massive victory in elections to the Lok Sabha, India’s national parliament, earlier this year, giving it a second term in power as the majority party able to govern without coalition partners, in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – did well in a series of state elections late last year but is reeling from the whiplash of defeat in the Lok Sabha polls. The state elections are happening in the context of a renewed push from Modi to institute “one nation, one election” – a proposal to hold state elections at the same time as elections to the Lok Sabha.
There is currently political drama in two of India’s high-tech cities: Karnataka State, whose capital is Bangalore (sometimes called India’s Silicon Valley), India’s third-largest city, and Telangana State, whose capital is Hyderabad, India’s fourth-largest city and another important tech hub.
Karnataka State, home to over 61 million people, is embroiled in a political crisis as its government faces a no-confidence vote. Congress Party has governed the state since 2013, and was re-elected in 2018 (forming a government in coalition with Janata Dal Secular (JDS)), but a group of government Members of Legislative Assembly (MLAs) have resigned their seats. The BJP claimed it can command a majority in the Assembly. The parties are also feuding on Twitter.
Telangana State, home to over 35 million people, might be holding municipal elections soon. The Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), a center-right state party, holds 100 out of 120 seats in the Legislative Assembly, but BJP plans to contest all of the local seats. TRS’ founder, Kalvakuntla Chandrashekhar Rao (KCR), serves as Chief Minister.
Stephanie Findlay, Financial Times: “Congress governments in states across India are cratering after the party’s electoral wipeout in May triggered the resignation of Rahul Gandhi as leader and created a vacuum at the top of the country’s defining political movement.”
Telangana
Times of India: “Why this tearing hurry for municipal polls, first resolve objections of the people: [High Court] tells Telangana govt”
Karnataka
Hindustan Times: “A day after high drama plagued the Karnataka Assembly, Governor Vajubhai Vala on Thursday directed Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy to prove his majority on Friday by 1:30 p.m. The trust vote to decide the fate of the wobbly 14-month old JD(S)-Congress coalition government in Karnataka did not take place on Thursday as the Assembly was adjourned till Friday amid acrimonious exchanges that culminated in opposition BJP members starting an overnight ‘dharna’ inside the House.”
The Hindu: “Karnataka crisis: Confidence vote on July 22”
Other States
Aishwarya Paliwal, India Today: “Preparations for assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana have begun and sources within the Election Commission (EC) told India Today TV that elections in these two states are most likely to be held in November.”
National
Sudha Ramachandran, Jamestown Foundation’s China Brief: “The Prospects for Sino-Indian Relations During Modi’s Second Term”
Sangeeta Tanwar, Quartz: “A board game, inspired by a film on Arvind Kejriwal, offers a close look at Indian politics”
Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. However, a series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets – could boost the pro-democracy camp.
Anne Marie Roantree and Felix Tam, Reuters: “Hong Kong’s extradition bill demonstrations have mutated into a much bigger and more complex animal, ripping open old wounds and expanding a political fight as the city battens down for a summer of protests.”
Reuters: “Mooncakes, hymns and post-it notes: the color of Hong Kong’s protests”
The Economist: “Taking sides in Hong Kong’s protests presents opportunities for firms But it also carries risks”
Mary Hui, Quartz: “Hong Kong’s entrepreneurial protesters are crowdfunding everything from doctors to legal fees”
Clarence Leong, Columbia Journalism Review: “Violence against journalists by the police during protests in Hong Kong is becoming a grim feature of life there. The Hong Kong Journalists Association reported more than two-dozen accounts of police abuse against journalists to the Independent Police Complaints Council on June 17. Journalists, according to the HKJA, were tear-gassed, pepper-sprayed, and beaten with batons. “
Mary Ma, The Standard (Hong Kong): “About 350,000 new voters have signed up for the upcoming district council elections – a record for a district-level electoral exercise. The surge undoubtedly has everything to do with the huge protests against the extradition bill that have continued to haunt society, despite Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor declaring it dead.”
Sri Lanka Presidential – December 7, 2019 and Parliamentary – February 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Sri Lanka is still feeling the aftershocks of a series of terrorist attacks over Easter 2019 and a 2018 political crisis in which President Maithripala Sirisena tried to dissolve parliament and remove Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe from office and replace him with former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was president from 2005 to 2015. Ultimately, Wickremesinghe was reinstated, but the crisis has deep roots and tensions remain high in Sri Lankan politics.
The two major parties are Sirisena’s center-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Wickremesinghe’s center-right United National Party. Rajapaksa left the SLPF in 2018 and now leads the populist Sri Lanka People’s Front/Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). In the last presidential elections, Rajapaksa surprisingly lost to Sirisena, who embarked on a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Rajapaksa had built up. Sirisena is eligible to run for a second term and could run again. His potential challengers include Wickremesinghe and one of Rajapaksa’s siblings (Rajapaksa is not eligible to run for president again due to term limits adopted during Sirisena’s presidency). Rajapaksa’s SLPP did well in local elections last year. Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice, and the upcoming elections could well determine whether it strengthens or deteriorates.
Hannah Beech, The Independent: “Pacifists no more: Militant Buddhism is on the march in Sri Lanka. As the tectonic plates of Buddhism and Islam collide around the world, some monks feel they have no choice but to turn to nationalism to protect themselves.”
Taiwan Presidential and Legislative – January 11, 2020 (Kuomintang party primaries July 5-15, 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republi
Taiwan has a robust democracy. The two main parties are President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT, founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate. Tsai won the DPP presidential primary, and the KMT holds its own primary next month. Candidates include Terry Guo, Taiwan’s richest man, and Beijing’s choice, Han Kuo-yu, the populist mayor of Kaohsiung, a major port city in the south. The DPP currently controls the Legislative Yuan. Last year’s local elections swept the KMT back into many local offices that they had lost during the 2014 local elections – with some interference from China. China is expected to attempt to influence the upcoming elections as well.
Nicola Smith, The Telegraph: “populist China-friendly Taiwanese mayor has won the hotly contested opposition party nomination to challenge Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen in the 2020 election. The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party said on Monday that Han Kuo-yu, mayor of the southern city of Kaohsiung, had won the presidential primary with an approval rating of 44.8 per cent, higher than that of rival Terry Gou, the billionaire founder of technology company Foxconn, which manufactures the iPhone.”
Chris Horton, New York Times: “Mr. Han has accused Ms. Tsai’s government of failing to improve people’s lives, while suggesting that some recent authoritarian East Asian leaders offer a model for Taiwan, which democratized in the early 1990s after nearly four decades of brutal martial law.”
Lawrence Chung and Laura Zhou, South China Morning Post: “KMT candidate Han Kuo-yu faces uphill battle in Taiwan presidential race. Analysts say he will need to mend fences with closest rival, Foxconn founder Terry Gou, amid speculation the billionaire may run as an independent”
Anders Fogh Rasmussen, The Guardian: “Hong Kong showed China is a threat to democracy. Now Europe must defend Taiwan. Beijing is bullying another democratic neighbour. The EU must stop ignoring authoritarianism for the sake of stability and cash”
Burma Parliamentary – Expected late 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Burma, also called Myanmar, seemed to be moving toward democracy following the country’s first credible, relatively free elections in 2015, which swept Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) to power following decades of military dictatorship. Once held up by the global community as a paragon of moral authority for giving up her own freedom in the fight for democracy, Suu Kyi’s tenure as the country’s de facto leader has disappointed many. Burma still has hundreds of political prisoners, including many who were arrested after the NLD came to power. Ethnic conflicts continue between the dominant Burmans, who comprise roughly 60 percent of the population, and different minority groups. The crisis in Rakhine or Arakan State with the Muslim Rohingya, which some have called a genocide, has created 700,000 refugees in neighboring Bangladesh and 128,000 internally displaced people. During by-elections in 2018, the NLD won seven out of 13 seats, but lost five out of six in non-Burman areas.
AFP: “Protesters in Myanmar called for the military to loosen its grip on politics Wednesday, as tensions mount over the country’s army-drafted constitution ahead of national elections next year. Parliament is set to discuss proposed amendments to the document but military MPs hold a veto on any changes, prompting more than 1,000 protesters to gather in downtown Yangon and shout slogans demanding constitutional reform.”
Htet Naing Zaw, The Irrawaddy: “Ethnic parties want the Tatmadaw (or Myanmar Army) to withdraw from politics and return to the barracks immediately, in contrast to the ruling National League for Democracy (NLD)’s goal of a gradual reduction in the Tatmadaw’s political role.”
Thet Su Aung, Khin Maung Nyane, Ye Kaung Myint Maung, and Roseanne Gerin, Radio Free Asia: “Prior to winning the general elections of 2015 in a landslide victory, the NLD vowed to rid the constitution of its undemocratic features, especially those that guaranteed the military political power. But once in power, the party backed off from pursuing the issue so as not to damage its delicate power-sharing arrangement with the armed forces.”
Bertil Lintner, Asia Times: “The hard truth is that after two general elections, in 2010 and 2015, Myanmar’s military will remain the country’s most powerful institution for the foreseeable future, regardless of how its proxy party performs at the 2020 elections.”
Merrit Kennedy, NPR: “The State Department said it has issued sanctions to four top military leaders in Myanmar over what it called ‘gross human rights violations’ during the ‘ethnic cleansing’ of the Rohingya Muslim minority.
Naw Betty Han, Frontier Myanmar: “U Min Htin Ko Ko Gyi, filmmaker and founder of the Human Rights Human Dignity International Film Festival, is being prosecuted for allegedly defaming the Tatmadaw in a series of Facebook posts. He has been denied bail, despite having liver cancer, and faces a two-year prison sentence. Frontier’s Naw Betty Han interviewed him in Insein Prison, where he has been detained since April 12.”
Singapore General – April 2021 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
People’s Action Party, co-founded by Lee Kuan Yew Singapore’s first prime minister, has been in power since 1959. While elections aren’t rigged in the classic sense (no stuffed ballot boxes), they take place in a context that effectively prevents the opposition from actually taking power, and the opposition has not historically run to actually win – their pitch to voters has been promises to provide a check on the PAP. The government uses a variety of tactics– including libel lawsuits, influence over the media, and laws that restrict political speech – to hamstring the opposition, while arguing that Singaporeans support PAP because it has governed competently. The 2015 elections gave PAP 83 out of the 89 elected seats in parliament. The next elections are due in 2021, but Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (Lee Kuan Yew’s son) has hinted that he would call early elections.
Kirsten Han, Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter: “The guessing game for Singapore’s elections. The scramble for the ballot box where the boundaries are redrawn at every election and the PM controls the timing.”
Peter Guest, The Atlantic: “Singapore Says It’s Fighting ‘Fake News.’ Journalists See a Ruse. A new law allows ministers to declare online content “false or misleading” and demand that it be corrected or taken down.”
Russell Hsiao, Jamestown Foundation’s China Brief: “A Preliminary Survey of [Chinese Communist Party] Influence Operations in Singapore”
Malaysia Local Elections – TBD
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
In last year’s parliamentary elections, Mahathir Mohamed led his Pakatan Haratan (Alliance of Hope) party to a surprise victory over the Barisan Nasional coalition and its primary member, United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which had been in power since Malaysia’s 1957 independence. In 1976, the government abolished local elections and instituted the practice of appointing the members of the country’s 146 local councils. Malaysia is currently debating whether to hold local elections.
The Economist: “Malaysia’s callow government has not kept its vows on civil liberties. Economic populism trumps freedom to dissent”
Past Elections
Philippines Legislative – May 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Shane Croucher, Newsweek: “Philippines police filed charges of cyber libel and sedition against three dozen of President Rodrigo Duterte’s political opponents over a series of YouTube videos in the recent elections accusing the controversial leader and his family of links to the illicit drugs trade.”
Adam Willis, The Guardian: “The Catholic rebels resisting the Philippines’ deadly war on drugs. President Rodrigo Duterte’s violent crackdown has left 20,000 dead, and in a devout country, he has repeatedly hurled insults at bishops, the pope – and even God. But only a handful of Catholic activists are brave enough to speak out.”
Indonesia Presidential, Legislative, Provincial – April 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Endy M. Bayuni, Jakarta Post: “Indonesia’s democracy alive, but needs more kick”
Erin Cook, The Diplomat: “After Jokowi’s Indonesia Election Win, What’s Next for Prabowo’s Supporters? While the election result may have been settled, the post-election dynamics are only beginning to shape up.”
Maldives Parliamentary – April 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Maldives is an idyllic Indian Ocean archipelago usually associated with honeymoons and oligarchs, although it was ruled by a brutal dictatorship for decades. The country had a remarkable transition to democracy in 2008, followed by several setbacks, delivered a clear win for pro-democracy forces in recent presidential and parliamentary elections.
Maldives Independent: “Commonwealth commends conduct of parliamentary polls. Concerns included the small number of female candidates.”
Cambodia General – July 29, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Men Kimseng, VOA: “The U.S. House of Representatives unanimously passed the bipartisan Cambodia Democracy Act of 2019 on Monday [July 15]. It would freeze assets and restrict visas for Hun Sen’s senior officials, military generals and security officers for undermining democracy and violating human rights.”
Orin France, Jurist: “The US Congress passed the Cambodia Act of 2019 Monday, which aims ‘To promote free and fair elections, political freedoms, and human rights in Cambodia, and for other purposes.’”
Charles Dunst, Foreign Policy: “Hun Sen’s Man in Washington (State)”
Asia This Week – July 19, 2019
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Last Updated: August 3, 2019 by 21votes
July 19, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Asia and the Pacific on Fridays. Click the map pins.
Japan Legislative (half of upper house) – July 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
124 out of the 245 seats in the House of Councillors, the upper house of the bicameral National Diet, are up for election, for six-year terms. Shinzo Abe’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) seeks to gain a two-thirds majority in the upper house (which it already holds in the lower house with coalition partner Komeito, a Buddhist religious party) in order to revisit and possibly amend Japan’s pacifist constitution. Some had speculated that Abe would also call a snap election to the lower house to be held concurrently (otherwise, lower house elections are not due until 2021), but that Abe dismissed the idea. Nationwide local elections in April saw low turnout and little competition – more than 20 percent of seats were uncontested. Provincial gubernatorial elections are also happening throughout the year. Recent concerns over Japan’s pension systems looked set to threaten Abe’s grip on power, but his government won a no-confidence motion in the lower house and currently looks stable.
Motoko RIch and Eimi Yamamitsu, New York Times: “Good News for Shinzo Abe: Japan’s Young Voters Lean Right, if They Vote at All: Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is likely to move a step closer to his dream of becoming Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, with his party heavily favored to win a parliamentary election on Sunday.”
Craig Mark, South China Morning Post: “Explained: what’s at stake in Japan’s 2019 upper house election?”
Purnendra Jain, Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter: “Abe’s constitutional dream hinges on upper house election. Any change to Japan’s constitutional ‘peace clause’ needs securing a two-thirds majority in both houses of the Diet.”
Mina Pollmann, The Diplomat: “Japan Prepares for Upper House Elections: In addition to issues like constitutional reform, social questions like disabled and LGBT rights are also in the spotlight.”
River Davis, Wall Street Journal: “Japanese Party Takes Aim at Abe’s ‘Womenomics’ in Election Campaign. Parties in Japan seize on momentum, and shortcomings, of president’s campaign to help more women join the workforce”
Tomohiro Osaki, Japan Times: “Candidates with disabilities hope to lay foundation for inclusive Diet in Upper House election”
Aurelia George Mulgan, Australian National University’s East Asia Forum: “Is there a crisis of Japanese democracy?”
The Economist: “Japan’s dull election is a sign of ailing politics”
Papua New Guinea Local – July 20-25, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Papua New Guinea’s politics are chaotic, and no single party has ever commanded a majority in parliament. Coalitions shift frequently. James Marape became prime minister in May 2018 when former prime minister Peter O’Neill lost a no-confidence vote after being in power for eight years. It is unclear whether Marape will effectively address Papua New Guinea’s continuing problems of corruption and mismanagement of the economy. For the local elections, voters will elect representatives to 29 urban and 302 rural local level government assemblies.
AFP: “Papua New Guinea to boost security after mass killing escalates tribal war. The country’s police minister decries the ‘worst payback killing’ in PNG’s history”
Charlie Campbell, Time: “How a 7-Year-Old Girl Survived Papua New Guinea’s Crucible of Sorcery”
India, Haryana State and Maharashtra State Assemblies – October 2019 or November 2019 and Jharkhand State Assembly – November 2019 (plus a Lok Sabha by-election August 5, 2019 in Vellore)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
India has 29 states and seven union territories. Indian states are big – Maharashtra, whose capital is Mumbai, has 112 million people, Haryana 25 million, and Jharkhand 32 million. Coalitions headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently control all three state legislatures. The BJP won a massive victory in elections to the Lok Sabha, India’s national parliament, earlier this year, giving it a second term in power as the majority party able to govern without coalition partners, in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – did well in a series of state elections late last year but is reeling from the whiplash of defeat in the Lok Sabha polls. The state elections are happening in the context of a renewed push from Modi to institute “one nation, one election” – a proposal to hold state elections at the same time as elections to the Lok Sabha.
There is currently political drama in two of India’s high-tech cities: Karnataka State, whose capital is Bangalore (sometimes called India’s Silicon Valley), India’s third-largest city, and Telangana State, whose capital is Hyderabad, India’s fourth-largest city and another important tech hub.
Karnataka State, home to over 61 million people, is embroiled in a political crisis as its government faces a no-confidence vote. Congress Party has governed the state since 2013, and was re-elected in 2018 (forming a government in coalition with Janata Dal Secular (JDS)), but a group of government Members of Legislative Assembly (MLAs) have resigned their seats. The BJP claimed it can command a majority in the Assembly. The parties are also feuding on Twitter.
Telangana State, home to over 35 million people, might be holding municipal elections soon. The Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), a center-right state party, holds 100 out of 120 seats in the Legislative Assembly, but BJP plans to contest all of the local seats. TRS’ founder, Kalvakuntla Chandrashekhar Rao (KCR), serves as Chief Minister.
Stephanie Findlay, Financial Times: “Congress governments in states across India are cratering after the party’s electoral wipeout in May triggered the resignation of Rahul Gandhi as leader and created a vacuum at the top of the country’s defining political movement.”
Telangana
Times of India: “Why this tearing hurry for municipal polls, first resolve objections of the people: [High Court] tells Telangana govt”
Karnataka
Hindustan Times: “A day after high drama plagued the Karnataka Assembly, Governor Vajubhai Vala on Thursday directed Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy to prove his majority on Friday by 1:30 p.m. The trust vote to decide the fate of the wobbly 14-month old JD(S)-Congress coalition government in Karnataka did not take place on Thursday as the Assembly was adjourned till Friday amid acrimonious exchanges that culminated in opposition BJP members starting an overnight ‘dharna’ inside the House.
Other States
Aishwarya Paliwal, India Today: “Preparations for assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana have begun and sources within the Election Commission (EC) told India Today TV that elections in these two states are most likely to be held in November.”
National
Stephanie Findlay, Financial Times: “India’s Congress party forced to confront an identity crisis. Rahul Gandhi’s resignation raises existential questions about a defining political movement”
Sudha Ramachandran, Jamestown Foundation’s China Brief: “The Prospects for Sino-Indian Relations During Modi’s Second Term”
Sangeeta Tanwar, Quartz: “A board game, inspired by a film on Arvind Kejriwal, offers a close look at Indian politics”
Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. However, a series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets – could boost the pro-democracy camp.
Anne Marie Roantree and Felix Tam, Reuters: “Hong Kong’s extradition bill demonstrations have mutated into a much bigger and more complex animal, ripping open old wounds and expanding a political fight as the city battens down for a summer of protests.”
Reuters: “Mooncakes, hymns and post-it notes: the color of Hong Kong’s protests”
The Economist: “Taking sides in Hong Kong’s protests presents opportunities for firms But it also carries risks”
Mary Hui, Quartz: “Hong Kong’s entrepreneurial protesters are crowdfunding everything from doctors to legal fees”
Laignee Barron, Time: “‘Whenever There’s Trouble He Rushes There.’ Meet Legislator Roy Kwong, the God of Hong Kong Protests”
Clarence Leong, Columbia Journalism Review: “Violence against journalists by the police during protests in Hong Kong is becoming a grim feature of life there. The Hong Kong Journalists Association reported more than two-dozen accounts of police abuse against journalists to the Independent Police Complaints Council on June 17. Journalists, according to the HKJA, were tear-gassed, pepper-sprayed, and beaten with batons. “
Mary Ma, The Standard (Hong Kong): “About 350,000 new voters have signed up for the upcoming district council elections – a record for a district-level electoral exercise. The surge undoubtedly has everything to do with the huge protests against the extradition bill that have continued to haunt society, despite Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor declaring it dead.”
Sri Lanka Presidential – December 7, 2019 and Parliamentary – February 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Sri Lanka is still feeling the aftershocks of a series of terrorist attacks over Easter 2019 and a 2018 political crisis in which President Maithripala Sirisena tried to dissolve parliament and remove Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe from office and replace him with former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was president from 2005 to 2015. Ultimately, Wickremesinghe was reinstated, but the crisis has deep roots and tensions remain high in Sri Lankan politics.
The two major parties are Sirisena’s center-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Wickremesinghe’s center-right United National Party. Rajapaksa left the SLPF in 2018 and now leads the populist Sri Lanka People’s Front/Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). In the last presidential elections, Rajapaksa surprisingly lost to Sirisena, who embarked on a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Rajapaksa had built up. Sirisena is eligible to run for a second term and could run again. His potential challengers include Wickremesinghe and one of Rajapaksa’s siblings (Rajapaksa is not eligible to run for president again due to term limits adopted during Sirisena’s presidency). Rajapaksa’s SLPP did well in local elections last year. Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice, and the upcoming elections could well determine whether it strengthens or deteriorates.
Hannah Beech, The Independent: “Pacifists no more: Militant Buddhism is on the march in Sri Lanka. As the tectonic plates of Buddhism and Islam collide around the world, some monks feel they have no choice but to turn to nationalism to protect themselves.”
Taiwan Presidential and Legislative – January 11, 2020 (Kuomintang party primaries July 5-15, 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republi
Taiwan has a robust democracy. The two main parties are President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT, founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate. Tsai won the DPP presidential primary, and the KMT holds its own primary next month. Candidates include Terry Guo, Taiwan’s richest man, and Beijing’s choice, Han Kuo-yu, the populist mayor of Kaohsiung, a major port city in the south. The DPP currently controls the Legislative Yuan. Last year’s local elections swept the KMT back into many local offices that they had lost during the 2014 local elections – with some interference from China. China is expected to attempt to influence the upcoming elections as well.
Nicola Smith, The Telegraph: “populist China-friendly Taiwanese mayor has won the hotly contested opposition party nomination to challenge Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen in the 2020 election. The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party said on Monday that Han Kuo-yu, mayor of the southern city of Kaohsiung, had won the presidential primary with an approval rating of 44.8 per cent, higher than that of rival Terry Gou, the billionaire founder of technology company Foxconn, which manufactures the iPhone.”
Chris Horton, New York Times: “Mr. Han has accused Ms. Tsai’s government of failing to improve people’s lives, while suggesting that some recent authoritarian East Asian leaders offer a model for Taiwan, which democratized in the early 1990s after nearly four decades of brutal martial law. At a large June 1 rally in Taiwan’s capital, Taipei, Mr. Han singled out three political figures for praise: Chiang Ching-kuo, the former Kuomintang dictator of Taiwan; Lee Kuan Yew, the late authoritarian ruler of Singapore; and Deng Xiaoping, who initiated economic overhauls in China in the 1980s but was responsible for the Tiananmen massacre.”
Lawrence Chung and Laura Zhou, South China Morning Post: “KMT candidate Han Kuo-yu faces uphill battle in Taiwan presidential race. Analysts say he will need to mend fences with closest rival, Foxconn founder Terry Gou, amid speculation the billionaire may run as an independent”
Anders Fogh Rasmussen, The Guardian: “Hong Kong showed China is a threat to democracy. Now Europe must defend Taiwan. Beijing is bullying another democratic neighbour. The EU must stop ignoring authoritarianism for the sake of stability and cash”
Burma Parliamentary – Expected late 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Burma, also called Myanmar, seemed to be moving toward democracy following the country’s first credible, relatively free elections in 2015, which swept Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) to power following decades of military dictatorship. Once held up by the global community as a paragon of moral authority for giving up her own freedom in the fight for democracy, Suu Kyi’s tenure as the country’s de facto leader has disappointed many. Burma still has hundreds of political prisoners, including many who were arrested after the NLD came to power. Ethnic conflicts continue between the dominant Burmans, who comprise roughly 60 percent of the population, and different minority groups. The crisis in Rakhine or Arakan State with the Muslim Rohingya, which some have called a genocide, has created 700,000 refugees in neighboring Bangladesh and 128,000 internally displaced people. During by-elections in 2018, the NLD won seven out of 13 seats, but lost five out of six in non-Burman areas.
AFP: “Protesters in Myanmar called for the military to loosen its grip on politics Wednesday, as tensions mount over the country’s army-drafted constitution ahead of national elections next year. Parliament is set to discuss proposed amendments to the document but military MPs hold a veto on any changes, prompting more than 1,000 protesters to gather in downtown Yangon and shout slogans demanding constitutional reform.”
Htet Naing Zaw, The Irrawaddy: “Ethnic parties want the Tatmadaw (or Myanmar Army) to withdraw from politics and return to the barracks immediately, in contrast to the ruling National League for Democracy (NLD)’s goal of a gradual reduction in the Tatmadaw’s political role.”
Thet Su Aung, Khin Maung Nyane, Ye Kaung Myint Maung, and Roseanne Gerin, Radio Free Asia: “Prior to winning the general elections of 2015 in a landslide victory, the NLD vowed to rid the constitution of its undemocratic features, especially those that guaranteed the military political power. But once in power, the party backed off from pursuing the issue so as not to damage its delicate power-sharing arrangement with the armed forces.
Bertil Lintner, Asia Times: “The hard truth is that after two general elections, in 2010 and 2015, Myanmar’s military will remain the country’s most powerful institution for the foreseeable future, regardless of how its proxy party performs at the 2020 elections.”
Merrit Kennedy, NPR: “The State Department said it has issued sanctions to four top military leaders in Myanmar over what it called ‘gross human rights violations’ during the ‘ethnic cleansing’ of the Rohingya Muslim minority.
Naw Betty Han, Frontier Myanmar: “U Min Htin Ko Ko Gyi, filmmaker and founder of the Human Rights Human Dignity International Film Festival, is being prosecuted for allegedly defaming the Tatmadaw in a series of Facebook posts. He has been denied bail, despite having liver cancer, and faces a two-year prison sentence. Frontier’s Naw Betty Han interviewed him in Insein Prison, where he has been detained since April 12.”
Singapore General – April 2021 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
People’s Action Party, co-founded by Lee Kuan Yew Singapore’s first prime minister, has been in power since 1959. While elections aren’t rigged in the classic sense (no stuffed ballot boxes), they take place in a context that effectively prevents the opposition from actually taking power, and the opposition has not historically run to actually win – their pitch to voters has been promises to provide a check on the PAP. The government uses a variety of tactics– including libel lawsuits, influence over the media, and laws that restrict political speech – to hamstring the opposition, while arguing that Singaporeans support PAP because it has governed competently. The 2015 elections gave PAP 83 out of the 89 elected seats in parliament. The next elections are due in 2021, but Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (Lee Kuan Yew’s son) has hinted that he would call early elections.
Kirsten Han, Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter: “The guessing game for Singapore’s elections. The scramble for the ballot box where the boundaries are redrawn at every election and the PM controls the timing.”
Peter Guest, The Atlantic: “Singapore Says It’s Fighting ‘Fake News.’ Journalists See a Ruse. A new law allows ministers to declare online content “false or misleading” and demand that it be corrected or taken down.”
Russell Hsiao, Jamestown Foundation’s China Brief: “A Preliminary Survey of [Chinese Communist Party] Influence Operations in Singapore”
Malaysia Local Elections – TBD
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
In last year’s parliamentary elections, Mahathir Mohamed led his Pakatan Haratan (Alliance of Hope) party to a surprise victory over the Barisan Nasional coalition and its primary member, United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which had been in power since Malaysia’s 1957 independence. In 1976, the government abolished local elections and instituted the practice of appointing the members of the country’s 146 local councils. Malaysia is currently debating whether to hold local elections.
The Economist: “Malaysia’s callow government has not kept its vows on civil liberties. Economic populism trumps freedom to dissent”
Philippines Legislative – May 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Shane Croucher, Newsweek: “Philippines police filed charges of cyber libel and sedition against three dozen of President Rodrigo Duterte’s political opponents over a series of YouTube videos in the recent elections accusing the controversial leader and his family of links to the illicit drugs trade.”
Adam Willis, The Guardian: “The Catholic rebels resisting the Philippines’ deadly war on drugs. President Rodrigo Duterte’s violent crackdown has left 20,000 dead, and in a devout country, he has repeatedly hurled insults at bishops, the pope – and even God. But only a handful of Catholic activists are brave enough to speak out.”
Indonesia Presidential, Legislative, Provincial – April 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Endy M. Bayuni, Jakarta Post: “Indonesia’s democracy alive, but needs more kick”
Erin Cook, The Diplomat: “After Jokowi’s Indonesia Election Win, What’s Next for Prabowo’s Supporters? While the election result may have been settled, the post-election dynamics are only beginning to shape up.”
Maldives Parliamentary – April 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Maldives is an idyllic Indian Ocean archipelago usually associated with honeymoons and oligarchs, although it was ruled by a brutal dictatorship for decades. The country had a remarkable transition to democracy in 2008, followed by several setbacks, delivered a clear win for pro-democracy forces in recent presidential and parliamentary elections.
Maldives Independent: “Commonwealth commends conduct of parliamentary polls. Concerns included the small number of female candidates.”
Cambodia General – July 29, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Men Kimseng, VOA: “The U.S. House of Representatives unanimously passed the bipartisan Cambodia Democracy Act of 2019 on Monday [July 15]. It would freeze assets and restrict visas for Hun Sen’s senior officials, military generals and security officers for undermining democracy and violating human rights.”
Orin France, Jurist: “The US Congress passed the Cambodia Act of 2019 Monday, which aims ‘To promote free and fair elections, political freedoms, and human rights in Cambodia, and for other purposes.’”
Charles Dunst, Foreign Policy: “Hun Sen’s Man in Washington (State)”
Upcoming Elections
Japan Legislative (half of upper house) – July 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
124 out of the 245 seats in the House of Councillors, the upper house of the bicameral National Diet, are up for election, for six-year terms. Shinzo Abe’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) seeks to gain a two-thirds majority in the upper house (which it already holds in the lower house with coalition partner Komeito, a Buddhist religious party) in order to revisit and possibly amend Japan’s pacifist constitution. Some had speculated that Abe would also call a snap election to the lower house to be held concurrently (otherwise, lower house elections are not due until 2021), but that Abe dismissed the idea. Nationwide local elections in April saw low turnout and little competition – more than 20 percent of seats were uncontested. Provincial gubernatorial elections are also happening throughout the year. Recent concerns over Japan’s pension systems looked set to threaten Abe’s grip on power, but his government won a no-confidence motion in the lower house and currently looks stable.
Motoko RIch and Eimi Yamamitsu, New York Times: “Good News for Shinzo Abe: Japan’s Young Voters Lean Right, if They Vote at All: Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is likely to move a step closer to his dream of becoming Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, with his party heavily favored to win a parliamentary election on Sunday.”
Craig Mark, South China Morning Post: “Explained: what’s at stake in Japan’s 2019 upper house election?”
Purnendra Jain, Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter: “Abe’s constitutional dream hinges on upper house election. Any change to Japan’s constitutional ‘peace clause’ needs securing a two-thirds majority in both houses of the Diet.”
Mina Pollmann, The Diplomat: “Japan Prepares for Upper House Elections: In addition to issues like constitutional reform, social questions like disabled and LGBT rights are also in the spotlight.”
River Davis, Wall Street Journal: “Japanese Party Takes Aim at Abe’s ‘Womenomics’ in Election Campaign. Parties in Japan seize on momentum, and shortcomings, of president’s campaign to help more women join the workforce”
Tomohiro Osaki, Japan Times: “Candidates with disabilities hope to lay foundation for inclusive Diet in Upper House election”
Aurelia George Mulgan, Australian National University’s East Asia Forum: “Is there a crisis of Japanese democracy?”
The Economist: “Japan’s dull election is a sign of ailing politics”
Papua New Guinea Local – July 20-25, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Papua New Guinea’s politics are chaotic, and no single party has ever commanded a majority in parliament. Coalitions shift frequently. James Marape became prime minister in May 2018 when former prime minister Peter O’Neill lost a no-confidence vote after being in power for eight years. It is unclear whether Marape will effectively address Papua New Guinea’s continuing problems of corruption and mismanagement of the economy. For the local elections, voters will elect representatives to 29 urban and 302 rural local level government assemblies.
AFP: “Papua New Guinea to boost security after mass killing escalates tribal war. The country’s police minister decries the ‘worst payback killing’ in PNG’s history”
Charlie Campbell, Time: “How a 7-Year-Old Girl Survived Papua New Guinea’s Crucible of Sorcery”
India, Haryana State and Maharashtra State Assemblies – October 2019 or November 2019 and Jharkhand State Assembly – November 2019 (plus a Lok Sabha by-election August 5, 2019 in Vellore)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
India has 29 states and seven union territories. Indian states are big – Maharashtra, whose capital is Mumbai, has 112 million people, Haryana 25 million, and Jharkhand 32 million. Coalitions headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently control all three state legislatures. The BJP won a massive victory in elections to the Lok Sabha, India’s national parliament, earlier this year, giving it a second term in power as the majority party able to govern without coalition partners, in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – did well in a series of state elections late last year but is reeling from the whiplash of defeat in the Lok Sabha polls. The state elections are happening in the context of a renewed push from Modi to institute “one nation, one election” – a proposal to hold state elections at the same time as elections to the Lok Sabha.
There is currently political drama in two of India’s high-tech cities: Karnataka State, whose capital is Bangalore (sometimes called India’s Silicon Valley), India’s third-largest city, and Telangana State, whose capital is Hyderabad, India’s fourth-largest city and another important tech hub.
Karnataka State, home to over 61 million people, is embroiled in a political crisis as its government faces a no-confidence vote. Congress Party has governed the state since 2013, and was re-elected in 2018 (forming a government in coalition with Janata Dal Secular (JDS)), but a group of government Members of Legislative Assembly (MLAs) have resigned their seats. The BJP claimed it can command a majority in the Assembly. The parties are also feuding on Twitter.
Telangana State, home to over 35 million people, might be holding municipal elections soon. The Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), a center-right state party, holds 100 out of 120 seats in the Legislative Assembly, but BJP plans to contest all of the local seats. TRS’ founder, Kalvakuntla Chandrashekhar Rao (KCR), serves as Chief Minister.
Stephanie Findlay, Financial Times: “Congress governments in states across India are cratering after the party’s electoral wipeout in May triggered the resignation of Rahul Gandhi as leader and created a vacuum at the top of the country’s defining political movement.”
Telangana
Times of India: “Why this tearing hurry for municipal polls, first resolve objections of the people: [High Court] tells Telangana govt”
Karnataka
Hindustan Times: “A day after high drama plagued the Karnataka Assembly, Governor Vajubhai Vala on Thursday directed Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy to prove his majority on Friday by 1:30 p.m. The trust vote to decide the fate of the wobbly 14-month old JD(S)-Congress coalition government in Karnataka did not take place on Thursday as the Assembly was adjourned till Friday amid acrimonious exchanges that culminated in opposition BJP members starting an overnight ‘dharna’ inside the House.”
The Hindu: “Karnataka crisis: Confidence vote on July 22”
Other States
Aishwarya Paliwal, India Today: “Preparations for assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana have begun and sources within the Election Commission (EC) told India Today TV that elections in these two states are most likely to be held in November.”
National
Sudha Ramachandran, Jamestown Foundation’s China Brief: “The Prospects for Sino-Indian Relations During Modi’s Second Term”
Sangeeta Tanwar, Quartz: “A board game, inspired by a film on Arvind Kejriwal, offers a close look at Indian politics”
Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. However, a series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets – could boost the pro-democracy camp.
Anne Marie Roantree and Felix Tam, Reuters: “Hong Kong’s extradition bill demonstrations have mutated into a much bigger and more complex animal, ripping open old wounds and expanding a political fight as the city battens down for a summer of protests.”
Reuters: “Mooncakes, hymns and post-it notes: the color of Hong Kong’s protests”
The Economist: “Taking sides in Hong Kong’s protests presents opportunities for firms But it also carries risks”
Mary Hui, Quartz: “Hong Kong’s entrepreneurial protesters are crowdfunding everything from doctors to legal fees”
Clarence Leong, Columbia Journalism Review: “Violence against journalists by the police during protests in Hong Kong is becoming a grim feature of life there. The Hong Kong Journalists Association reported more than two-dozen accounts of police abuse against journalists to the Independent Police Complaints Council on June 17. Journalists, according to the HKJA, were tear-gassed, pepper-sprayed, and beaten with batons. “
Mary Ma, The Standard (Hong Kong): “About 350,000 new voters have signed up for the upcoming district council elections – a record for a district-level electoral exercise. The surge undoubtedly has everything to do with the huge protests against the extradition bill that have continued to haunt society, despite Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor declaring it dead.”
Sri Lanka Presidential – December 7, 2019 and Parliamentary – February 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Sri Lanka is still feeling the aftershocks of a series of terrorist attacks over Easter 2019 and a 2018 political crisis in which President Maithripala Sirisena tried to dissolve parliament and remove Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe from office and replace him with former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was president from 2005 to 2015. Ultimately, Wickremesinghe was reinstated, but the crisis has deep roots and tensions remain high in Sri Lankan politics.
The two major parties are Sirisena’s center-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Wickremesinghe’s center-right United National Party. Rajapaksa left the SLPF in 2018 and now leads the populist Sri Lanka People’s Front/Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). In the last presidential elections, Rajapaksa surprisingly lost to Sirisena, who embarked on a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Rajapaksa had built up. Sirisena is eligible to run for a second term and could run again. His potential challengers include Wickremesinghe and one of Rajapaksa’s siblings (Rajapaksa is not eligible to run for president again due to term limits adopted during Sirisena’s presidency). Rajapaksa’s SLPP did well in local elections last year. Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice, and the upcoming elections could well determine whether it strengthens or deteriorates.
Hannah Beech, The Independent: “Pacifists no more: Militant Buddhism is on the march in Sri Lanka. As the tectonic plates of Buddhism and Islam collide around the world, some monks feel they have no choice but to turn to nationalism to protect themselves.”
Taiwan Presidential and Legislative – January 11, 2020 (Kuomintang party primaries July 5-15, 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republi
Taiwan has a robust democracy. The two main parties are President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT, founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate. Tsai won the DPP presidential primary, and the KMT holds its own primary next month. Candidates include Terry Guo, Taiwan’s richest man, and Beijing’s choice, Han Kuo-yu, the populist mayor of Kaohsiung, a major port city in the south. The DPP currently controls the Legislative Yuan. Last year’s local elections swept the KMT back into many local offices that they had lost during the 2014 local elections – with some interference from China. China is expected to attempt to influence the upcoming elections as well.
Nicola Smith, The Telegraph: “populist China-friendly Taiwanese mayor has won the hotly contested opposition party nomination to challenge Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen in the 2020 election. The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party said on Monday that Han Kuo-yu, mayor of the southern city of Kaohsiung, had won the presidential primary with an approval rating of 44.8 per cent, higher than that of rival Terry Gou, the billionaire founder of technology company Foxconn, which manufactures the iPhone.”
Chris Horton, New York Times: “Mr. Han has accused Ms. Tsai’s government of failing to improve people’s lives, while suggesting that some recent authoritarian East Asian leaders offer a model for Taiwan, which democratized in the early 1990s after nearly four decades of brutal martial law.”
Lawrence Chung and Laura Zhou, South China Morning Post: “KMT candidate Han Kuo-yu faces uphill battle in Taiwan presidential race. Analysts say he will need to mend fences with closest rival, Foxconn founder Terry Gou, amid speculation the billionaire may run as an independent”
Anders Fogh Rasmussen, The Guardian: “Hong Kong showed China is a threat to democracy. Now Europe must defend Taiwan. Beijing is bullying another democratic neighbour. The EU must stop ignoring authoritarianism for the sake of stability and cash”
Burma Parliamentary – Expected late 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Burma, also called Myanmar, seemed to be moving toward democracy following the country’s first credible, relatively free elections in 2015, which swept Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) to power following decades of military dictatorship. Once held up by the global community as a paragon of moral authority for giving up her own freedom in the fight for democracy, Suu Kyi’s tenure as the country’s de facto leader has disappointed many. Burma still has hundreds of political prisoners, including many who were arrested after the NLD came to power. Ethnic conflicts continue between the dominant Burmans, who comprise roughly 60 percent of the population, and different minority groups. The crisis in Rakhine or Arakan State with the Muslim Rohingya, which some have called a genocide, has created 700,000 refugees in neighboring Bangladesh and 128,000 internally displaced people. During by-elections in 2018, the NLD won seven out of 13 seats, but lost five out of six in non-Burman areas.
AFP: “Protesters in Myanmar called for the military to loosen its grip on politics Wednesday, as tensions mount over the country’s army-drafted constitution ahead of national elections next year. Parliament is set to discuss proposed amendments to the document but military MPs hold a veto on any changes, prompting more than 1,000 protesters to gather in downtown Yangon and shout slogans demanding constitutional reform.”
Htet Naing Zaw, The Irrawaddy: “Ethnic parties want the Tatmadaw (or Myanmar Army) to withdraw from politics and return to the barracks immediately, in contrast to the ruling National League for Democracy (NLD)’s goal of a gradual reduction in the Tatmadaw’s political role.”
Thet Su Aung, Khin Maung Nyane, Ye Kaung Myint Maung, and Roseanne Gerin, Radio Free Asia: “Prior to winning the general elections of 2015 in a landslide victory, the NLD vowed to rid the constitution of its undemocratic features, especially those that guaranteed the military political power. But once in power, the party backed off from pursuing the issue so as not to damage its delicate power-sharing arrangement with the armed forces.”
Bertil Lintner, Asia Times: “The hard truth is that after two general elections, in 2010 and 2015, Myanmar’s military will remain the country’s most powerful institution for the foreseeable future, regardless of how its proxy party performs at the 2020 elections.”
Merrit Kennedy, NPR: “The State Department said it has issued sanctions to four top military leaders in Myanmar over what it called ‘gross human rights violations’ during the ‘ethnic cleansing’ of the Rohingya Muslim minority.
Naw Betty Han, Frontier Myanmar: “U Min Htin Ko Ko Gyi, filmmaker and founder of the Human Rights Human Dignity International Film Festival, is being prosecuted for allegedly defaming the Tatmadaw in a series of Facebook posts. He has been denied bail, despite having liver cancer, and faces a two-year prison sentence. Frontier’s Naw Betty Han interviewed him in Insein Prison, where he has been detained since April 12.”
Singapore General – April 2021 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
People’s Action Party, co-founded by Lee Kuan Yew Singapore’s first prime minister, has been in power since 1959. While elections aren’t rigged in the classic sense (no stuffed ballot boxes), they take place in a context that effectively prevents the opposition from actually taking power, and the opposition has not historically run to actually win – their pitch to voters has been promises to provide a check on the PAP. The government uses a variety of tactics– including libel lawsuits, influence over the media, and laws that restrict political speech – to hamstring the opposition, while arguing that Singaporeans support PAP because it has governed competently. The 2015 elections gave PAP 83 out of the 89 elected seats in parliament. The next elections are due in 2021, but Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (Lee Kuan Yew’s son) has hinted that he would call early elections.
Kirsten Han, Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter: “The guessing game for Singapore’s elections. The scramble for the ballot box where the boundaries are redrawn at every election and the PM controls the timing.”
Peter Guest, The Atlantic: “Singapore Says It’s Fighting ‘Fake News.’ Journalists See a Ruse. A new law allows ministers to declare online content “false or misleading” and demand that it be corrected or taken down.”
Russell Hsiao, Jamestown Foundation’s China Brief: “A Preliminary Survey of [Chinese Communist Party] Influence Operations in Singapore”
Malaysia Local Elections – TBD
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
In last year’s parliamentary elections, Mahathir Mohamed led his Pakatan Haratan (Alliance of Hope) party to a surprise victory over the Barisan Nasional coalition and its primary member, United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which had been in power since Malaysia’s 1957 independence. In 1976, the government abolished local elections and instituted the practice of appointing the members of the country’s 146 local councils. Malaysia is currently debating whether to hold local elections.
The Economist: “Malaysia’s callow government has not kept its vows on civil liberties. Economic populism trumps freedom to dissent”
Past Elections
Philippines Legislative – May 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Shane Croucher, Newsweek: “Philippines police filed charges of cyber libel and sedition against three dozen of President Rodrigo Duterte’s political opponents over a series of YouTube videos in the recent elections accusing the controversial leader and his family of links to the illicit drugs trade.”
Adam Willis, The Guardian: “The Catholic rebels resisting the Philippines’ deadly war on drugs. President Rodrigo Duterte’s violent crackdown has left 20,000 dead, and in a devout country, he has repeatedly hurled insults at bishops, the pope – and even God. But only a handful of Catholic activists are brave enough to speak out.”
Indonesia Presidential, Legislative, Provincial – April 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Endy M. Bayuni, Jakarta Post: “Indonesia’s democracy alive, but needs more kick”
Erin Cook, The Diplomat: “After Jokowi’s Indonesia Election Win, What’s Next for Prabowo’s Supporters? While the election result may have been settled, the post-election dynamics are only beginning to shape up.”
Maldives Parliamentary – April 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Maldives is an idyllic Indian Ocean archipelago usually associated with honeymoons and oligarchs, although it was ruled by a brutal dictatorship for decades. The country had a remarkable transition to democracy in 2008, followed by several setbacks, delivered a clear win for pro-democracy forces in recent presidential and parliamentary elections.
Maldives Independent: “Commonwealth commends conduct of parliamentary polls. Concerns included the small number of female candidates.”
Cambodia General – July 29, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Men Kimseng, VOA: “The U.S. House of Representatives unanimously passed the bipartisan Cambodia Democracy Act of 2019 on Monday [July 15]. It would freeze assets and restrict visas for Hun Sen’s senior officials, military generals and security officers for undermining democracy and violating human rights.”
Orin France, Jurist: “The US Congress passed the Cambodia Act of 2019 Monday, which aims ‘To promote free and fair elections, political freedoms, and human rights in Cambodia, and for other purposes.’”
Charles Dunst, Foreign Policy: “Hun Sen’s Man in Washington (State)”
The Year Ahead: Asia
Japan, provincial elections throughout the year; Japan legislative – half of upper house (July 21); Papua New Guinea local (July 20-25); Nauru legislative (August); India, Maharashtra and Haryana states (October); Tuvalu parliamentary (September 9); New Zealand local (October 12); Hong Kong local (November 24); Marshall Islands legislative (November); Kiribati legislative (December); Sri Lanka presidential (December 7); Taiwan presidential and legislative (January 11); Kiribati presidential (March); South Korea parliamentary (April 15); Niue parliamentary (May); Mongolia parliamentary (June)
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Campaign posters for Japan’s 2019 Upper House election, taking place on Sunday, July 21. Photo credit: Flickr/Ivva (CC BY-SA 2.0)
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Category: This Week Tags: Burma, Cambodia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Maldives, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Taiwan