Africa This Week – July 15, 2019

July 15, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Africa on Mondays. Click the map pins.

Liberia By-Elections – July 8, 2019 (postponed – new date not set)

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

When President George Weah, a former footballer, was elected in 2017, Liberia saw its first peaceful transition of power since 1944. The country holds elections to the Senate in 2020, but is due to hold a Senatorial by-election this year.

Corrado Cok, Global Risk Insights: “Liberia: Mounting Political Tensions in a Fragile Context”

Rodney Sieh, Front Page Africa: “Darius Dillon, the Senatorial candidate in the upcoming elections to fill the void left by the death of late Senator Geraldine Doe-Sheriff used his closing campaign rally Saturday to throw jabs at President George Manneh Weah who recently urged him to go to school before contemplating a run for the Senate.”

Michael Robinson Chavez, Washington Post: “Liberia today: The complex picture of a country in transition”

Zambia, Katuba By-Election – July 30, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Zambia’s next general election is due in 2021, but a by-election in Katuba, in the west of the country, because the incumbent – Patricia Mwashingwele of the opposition United Party for National Development (UPND) – died. The governing center-left Patriotic Front (PF) has 89 out of 166 in the unicameral National Assembly, and the main opposition liberal UPND has 58 seats. The 2016 presidential election was close – PF’s Edgar Lungu ultimately prevailed in a poll that was marred by tension and allegations of vote rigging but ultimately judged credible.  

Chris Phiri, Zambia Reports: “The ruling Patriotic Front has adopted Zacks Mwachilele as its candidate for the July 30 by-election. Party Secretary General Davies Mwila unveiled Mwachilele at a media briefing expressing confidence at scooping the seat.”

Chris Mfula, Reuters: “Zambian President Edgar Lungu abruptly fired his finance minister on Monday, appointing in her place the respected deputy head of the central bank, who said he might further delay a sales tax designed to rebalance its economy.”

Somalia Jubaland State Presidential and Parliament (indirect) - August 2019

Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic

Somalia hasn’t held direct elections in 50 years at the federal level, and at the state level, only the de facto independent Somaliland holds one-person-one-vote polls. The other states have electoral colleges with clan elders as electors. Somalia has federal elections due in 2020 and 2021, and hopes to move toward a one-person-one-vote model. However, the August Jubaland elections are not direct (which is why they are not on our big map). Politics – and conflict – throughout Somalia is largely based on clans, but efforts have been made to move toward a politics based on political parties. The terrorist group al-Shabab remains a menace.

Jubaland is rich in natural resources, raising the stakes of the election. Kismayo, the capital of Jubaland, saw the biggest terrorist attack last week since an action led by Kenyan soldiers ousted al-Shabab from the city in 2012.

Somalia Affairs: “The Somali federal member state of Jubbaland, a state that hosts most of the Somali clans in its regions, will hold elections in the coming two months. Right now, a strong contest is going on in the state between various clans and political alliances. The more intense competition is between State President Ahmed Madobe’s sub-clan, the Ogaden, and Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo’s sub-clan, the Marehan.”

The Journal IE:Twenty-six people were killed and 56 injured in a 12-hour attack by Al-Shabaab jihadists on a popular hotel that ended early this morning in the southern Somali port city of Kismayo….The hotel was packed with politicians and prominent businessmen as meetings were underway for upcoming presidential elections in Jubaland, due in August. One of the candidates in the election died in the siege, local authorities said.”

Democratic Republic of the Congo Local Assemblies – September 22, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

The DRC’s December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu. When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi. The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country, but both have returned.

AP: “The International Criminal Court on Monday convicted a notorious rebel commander known as ‘The Terminator’ of 18 counts of crimes against humanity and war crimes including murder, rape and sexual slavery for his role in atrocities in a bloody ethnic conflict in a mineral-rich region of Congo in 2002-2003”

DW: “The Democratic Republic of Congo has reported its first case of Ebola in the eastern city of Goma. The presence of the virus has raised concerns of an outbreak in the densely populated area along the Rwandan border.”

Daniela Flamini, Poynter: “Amid this tumultuous and disease-stricken environment, misinformation poses a serious threat to public safety, which Katsuva and his colleagues at Congo Check are trying to combat.”

Transparency International: “The most concerned citizens are found in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) where 79 per cent think that all or most parliamentarians are corrupt, followed by Gabon with 71 per cent.”

Reuters: “Pierre Mambele was never credited with telling the story of Congo’s never-ending crises. But the news would often have gone unheard without him. For successive Reuters reporters in Kinshasa and for other journalists flying in to cover the latest calamity, Mambele was a driver, a guide, a fearless protector and — above all — a loyal friend. He died on June 8, aged 74.”

Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – October 2019

Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.

Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself. Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections, which are likely delayed following a July vote by he National Assembly to extend its term in office. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat.

Reports Without Borders: “Well-known Cameroonian journalist Paul Chouta’s continuing detention is out of all proportion to the defamation and false news charges brought against him, Reporters Without Borders (RSF) said today after a court hearing in his case was postponed yet again in Yaoundé because the plaintiff failed to turn up.”

Mozambique Presidential, Legislative, and Provincial - October 15, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since, but currently have a ceasefire). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.

RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities. Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth.

Joseph Hanlon, AllAfrica: “Mozambique: Constitutional Council Refuses to Consider Renamo Gaza Protest”

Antonio Cascais, DW: “Africa’s Green parties bet on international help….’The German Greens are a shining example for us Greens in Mozambique,’ says Joao Massango. The 47-year-old is the president of the ‘Partido Ecologista – Movimento da Terra’ (PEC-MT), which specializes in environmental issues. But unlike the German Greens, the PEC-MT has not been able to send a single member to parliament since it was founded in 1997.”

Somaliland Legislative and Local - November 1, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: De facto independent state (technically part of the Federal Parliamentary Republic of Somalia)

Somaliland has de facto but not internationally-recognizedindependence from the failed state of Somalia. The last elections for the House of Representatives happened in 2005. The upcoming elections set for November 2019 were due in 2010 but faced multiple delays. Despite the lack of recognition, Somaliland is a functional state with more freedom and better governance than the rest of Somalia.

Fred Oluoch, The East African: “28 years later, is there hope of independence for Somaliland?”

International Crisis Group: “The time for serious discussions about Somaliland’s political status will likely come after Somalia’s next elections. But waiting until then to have any talks at all would be dangerous: tensions between the two sides persist, regional powers are competing for advantage at a cost to local stability, and Somaliland and Puntland remain at loggerheads as forces gather in border areas.”

Chad Legislative and Local – Due 2019

Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Idriss Déby seized power in a rebellion in 1990, and although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote. Western governments, particularly France, view the Déby regime as a security partner in countering terrorism in the region, and provide military aid. Opposition activists face arrest and mistreatment. There are concerns that the regime uses counterterrorism as an excuse for suppressing legitimate political opposition.

The mandate of the current National Assembly expired in 2015, and the elections have been delayed multiple times. In 2018, President Idriss Déby announced that the elections would happen in the “first half of 2019,” without giving a date, but in May 2019, the government delayed the elections indefinitely again, citing cost. The opposition holds that the real issue is a lack of political will.

AFP: “Chad President Idriss Deby said Saturday he was lifting social media restrictions which were imposed more than a year ago for ‘security reasons’….Access was cut to social media in March last year as public opposition mounted over Deby’s plans to push through changes to the constitution shoring up his power after almost three decades in office.”

RFI (in French): “Idriss Déby meets the parties in Chad: a first missed opportunity. The Chadian head of state received Wednesday political parties to discuss the evolution of the electoral process.”

Guinea-Bissau Presidential – November 24, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

In March 2019, Guinea-Bissau finally held long-delayed legislative elections. The ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) won 47 out of 102 seats, but made deals with three smaller parties to form a coalition with 54 seats. Prone to coups (most recently in 2012), no elected leader has served a full term since independence from Portugal. The country remains in a political crisis, with President José Mário Vaz (known as Jomav) in a feud with his own party (PAIGC). Vaz plans to run for re-election. Sometimes dubbed “the world’s first narco-state,” it risks once again becoming a hub for drug traffickers. 

Clayton Besaw and Jonathan Powell, The Conversation: “Rivalries ahead of Guinea-Bissau’s election raise questions about stability”

Vatican News: “Guinea-Bissau Bishops call for peace and security”

Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020

Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic

Following three years of protests, Ethiopia’s ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners and opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful. However, violence could threaten Abiy’s reforms.

In the 2015 elections, the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats.

Dawit Endeshaw, Reuters: “A failed regional coup in Ethiopia has exposed rare divisions in the alliance that has dominated the country for three decades, with two of the four ethnic parties that form the ruling coalition trading insults in a public feud.”

Foreign Policy: “Ethiopia’s Year of Reckoning: Ahead of elections in 2020, Ethiopia has many problems to address. Here are our top reads on how Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power and what comes next.”

Hilary Matfess, Lawfare: “Can Abiy Keep Reforming?”

Muthoki Mumo, Committee to Protect Journalists: “In era of reform, Ethiopia still reverts to old tactics to censor press”

Burundi Presidential and Legislative – May 20, 2020

Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

In 2015, President Pierre Nkurunziza ran for a third term, which critics said was unconstitutional. Nkurunziza’s decision sparked a political crisis. The opposition boycotted the election. Nkurunziza won, but the election was marred by violence and a coup attempt. In 2018, Nkurunziza said he would step down in 2020. Burundi’s 12-year civil war ended in 2005, but violence and authoritarianism have been on the rise. Many Burundians are nervous about the upcoming polls.

BBC: “The head of a Burundian militia accused of atrocities has been named to lead the state broadcaster, RTNB, sparking condemnation by human rights groups. Human Rights Watch said the appointment of Eric Nshimirimana was ‘a blow to all victims of abuse perpetrated by the Imbonerakure, as well as freedom of the press in Burundi.’”

Guinea Legislative - 2019 and Presidential - October 2020 (due)

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Elections in Guinea routinely see significant delays and have historically been surrounded by ethnic tensions and violence. President Alpha Condé, a former opposition leader who came to power in 2010 following a transition from military to civilian rule, is prevented by the constitution from running for a third term in the presidential polls due in 2020. However, he wants to change the constitution to allow him to do so (which Russia is encouraging because Russian companies have mining interests in Guinea). The terms of the current legislators expired in January 2019. Condé extended their mandates, and a new election date has not been set.

Adem K. Abebe, Al-Jazeera: “It’s time for the African Union to put a stop to ‘third-termism’: The AU needs to take action against the Guinean president’s attempt to change the constitution and extend his rule.”

Côte d’Ivoire Presidential and Legislative – October 31, 2020

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Eric Topona, DW (in French): “Worries in Côte d’Ivoire ahead of elections: Less than a year away from the Ivorian presidential election, political tension is rising and the UN fears that it will worsen as election deadlines approach.”

Vincent Duhem, The Africa Report: “At first glance, the three major blocs that are expected to compete in the October 2020 presidential election in Côte d’Ivoire look almost identical to those that competed in 2010. But the political dynamics have changed dramatically. Alassane Dramane Ouattara (ADO), Henri Konan Bédié (HKB), Laurent Gbagbo. The first was Félix Houphouët-Boigny’s only prime minister; the second succeeded the independence-era president after his death in 1993; the third was his main opponent. All three have been driving Ivorian political life for 30 years.”

Uganda General – February 2021

Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Partly Free this year) – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Rodney Muhumuza, AP: “Ugandan pop star and opposition figure Bobi Wine said Monday he will challenge longtime President Yoweri Museveni in a 2021 election ‘on behalf of the people’….As the leader of a popular movement known as ‘People Power,’ Wine has captured the imagination of many who want to see the exit of Museveni, a U.S. ally on regional security who has held power since 1986 and looks set to seek a sixth term.”

Rosebell Kagumire, African Arguments: “Where conventional means of protest are deemed insufficient, radical rudeness draws attention by breaking norms. In Uganda, ‘women don’t swear, women are polite people,’ Nyanzi explained to journalist Alice McCool. The only way to challenge power then is to use vulgarity and upset notions of acceptable language.”

Sudan Ongoing Crisis

Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

In April, nonviolent demonstrations ousted Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir. In June 2019, around the 30th anniversary of Tiananmen Square, Sudanese troops massacred citizens protesting the regime.

Nadine Awadalla, Eltayeb Siddig, Khalid Abdelaziz, Reuters: “Tens of thousands demonstrated in cities across Sudan on Saturday, witnesses said, to mark 40 days since security forces killed dozens when they stormed a protest camp in the capital Khartoum.”

Jason Burke and Zeinab Mohammed Salih, The Guardian: “Ishraga Mohamed, a demonstrator, said the protest was ‘patriotic.’ ‘We demand the right of the martyrs and accountability for their deaths,’ she said. At least 128 people were killed during the raid and in the two weeks that followed, according to doctors linked to the opposition. The government confirmed at least 61 deaths.”

Adrienne Klasa, Financial Times: “The US has thrown its weight behind the power-sharing deal struck between Sudan’s military leaders and civilian groups, fearing that the alternative was a descent into state failure and violence.”

Samy Magdy, AP: “Sudan’s pro-democracy movement postponed a scheduled meeting with the country’s ruling generals for a second time on Sunday, saying ‘further consultations’ were needed before they would sign a power-sharing deal with the military.”

Sabine Faber with Reuters, DW: “Women were the driving force behind the protests that led to the downfall of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir. They continue to make great sacrifices as they fight for a peaceful transition of power in their country.”

BBC: “Sudan’s ruling military council has said it foiled an attempted coup aimed at blocking a power-sharing deal with opposition groups. More than a dozen people – among them former and current army officers and members of the security services – were arrested, a military spokesman said.”

Jérôme Tubiana, Foreign Policy: “How Darfur Became Sudan’s Kingmaker: The country’s strongman is using the region to cement his rule.”

Claire Doyen, AFP: “Sudan’s desert nomads untouched by Bashir’s downfall”

Mauritania Presidential – June 22, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Mauritania’s incumbent president, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, came to power in a military coup in 2009 and the country is rated “not free” by Freedom House, but some hope that political space could be opening up, albeit slowly. While most believed that the ruling Union for the Republic party’s candidate, Defense Minister Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, would win (and he was indeed declared the winner), opposition candidates, including anti-slavery activist Biram Dah Abeid, participated. This contrasts with the 2014 presidential election, which the opposition boycotted. There are concerns about the electoral process and the lack of international observers.

Afef Abrougui, Global Voices: “Mauritanian authorities restored access to the internet after disrupting it for 10 days following the disputed presidential elections of June 23. However, the government continues to restrict press freedom and freedom of expression as part of its post-election crackdown.”

Malawi Tripartite (Presidential, Legislative, Local) – May 21, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Mirriam Kaliza and Ineke Mules, DW: “Gender discrimination blamed for Malawi election allegations: A group of women in Malawi say Electoral Commission head Jane Ansah is being targeted because of her gender for her part in May’s disputed election. Other women say they are playing the gender card.”

Daniel Mumbere, Africa News: “In Malawi, President Peter Mutharika’s government is still struggling to pacify the defeated and disappointed opposition supporters, nearly two months after Malawians took to the polls in the country’s tripartite elections. Mutharika’s re-election has been challenged by opposition political parties and non-governmental organisations, in court and through street protests.”

Leo Mkhuwala, Maravi Post: “The High Court in Blantyre on Friday [July 12] ordered the elections referee, Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) to produce elections relevant documents and tender them before court as part of evidence in yet another elections dispute case.”

CNBC: “How has Malawi’s disputed elections impacted the economy?”

The Gambia Presidential – December 1, 2016  and Legislative – April 6, 2017

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

In December 2016, The Gambia began a remarkable transition to democracy. Citizens removed dictator Yahya Jammeh peacefully, via the ballot box, and began the process of establishing a free society.

BBC: “The Gambia’s revolution: What has changed?”

Louise Hunt, World Politics Review: “Can Gambia’s #MeToo Movement Help Bring Yahya Jammeh to Justice?”

Upcoming Elections
Liberia By-Elections – July 8, 2019 (postponed – new date not set)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

When President George Weah, a former footballer, was elected in 2017, Liberia saw its first peaceful transition of power since 1944. The country holds elections to the Senate in 2020, but is due to hold a Senatorial by-election this year.

Corrado Cok, Global Risk Insights: “Liberia: Mounting Political Tensions in a Fragile Context”

Rodney Sieh, Front Page Africa: “Darius Dillon, the Senatorial candidate in the upcoming elections to fill the void left by the death of late Senator Geraldine Doe-Sheriff used his closing campaign rally Saturday to throw jabs at President George Manneh Weah who recently urged him to go to school before contemplating a run for the Senate.”

Michael Robinson Chavez, Washington Post: “Liberia today: The complex picture of a country in transition”

Zambia, Katuba By-Election – July 30, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Zambia’s next general election is due in 2021, but a by-election in Katuba, in the west of the country, because the incumbent – Patricia Mwashingwele of the opposition United Party for National Development (UPND) – died. The governing center-left Patriotic Front (PF) has 89 out of 166 in the unicameral National Assembly, and the main opposition liberal UPND has 58 seats. The 2016 presidential election was close – PF’s Edgar Lungu ultimately prevailed in a poll that was marred by tension and allegations of vote rigging but ultimately judged credible.  

Chris Phiri, Zambia Reports: “The ruling Patriotic Front has adopted Zacks Mwachilele as its candidate for the July 30 by-election. Party Secretary General Davies Mwila unveiled Mwachilele at a media briefing expressing confidence at scooping the seat.”

Chris Mfula, Reuters: “Zambian President Edgar Lungu abruptly fired his finance minister on Monday, appointing in her place the respected deputy head of the central bank, who said he might further delay a sales tax designed to rebalance its economy.”

Somalia Jubaland State Presidential and Parliament (indirect) – August 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic

Somalia hasn’t held direct elections in 50 years at the federal level, and at the state level, only the de facto independent Somaliland holds one-person-one-vote polls. The other states have electoral colleges with clan elders as electors. Somalia has federal elections due in 2020 and 2021, and hopes to move toward a one-person-one-vote model. However, the August Jubaland elections are not direct (which is why they are not on our big map). Politics – and conflict – throughout Somalia is largely based on clans, but efforts have been made to move toward a politics based on political parties. The terrorist group al-Shabab remains a menace.

Jubaland is rich in natural resources, raising the stakes of the election. Kismayo, the capital of Jubaland, saw the biggest terrorist attack last week since an action led by Kenyan soldiers ousted al-Shabab from the city in 2012.

Somalia Affairs: “The Somali federal member state of Jubbaland, a state that hosts most of the Somali clans in its regions, will hold elections in the coming two months. Right now, a strong contest is going on in the state between various clans and political alliances. The more intense competition is between State President Ahmed Madobe’s sub-clan, the Ogaden, and Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo’s sub-clan, the Marehan.”

The Journal IE: “Twenty-six people were killed and 56 injured in a 12-hour attack by Al-Shabaab jihadists on a popular hotel that ended early this morning in the southern Somali port city of Kismayo….The hotel was packed with politicians and prominent businessmen as meetings were underway for upcoming presidential elections in Jubaland, due in August. One of the candidates in the election died in the siege, local authorities said.”

Democratic Republic of the Congo Local Assemblies – September 22, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

The DRC’s December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu. When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi. The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country, but both have returned.

AP: “The International Criminal Court on Monday convicted a notorious rebel commander known as ‘The Terminator’ of 18 counts of crimes against humanity and war crimes including murder, rape and sexual slavery for his role in atrocities in a bloody ethnic conflict in a mineral-rich region of Congo in 2002-2003”

DW: “The Democratic Republic of Congo has reported its first case of Ebola in the eastern city of Goma. The presence of the virus has raised concerns of an outbreak in the densely populated area along the Rwandan border.”

Daniela Flamini, Poynter: “Amid this tumultuous and disease-stricken environment, misinformation poses a serious threat to public safety, which Katsuva and his colleagues at Congo Check are trying to combat.”

Transparency International: “The most concerned citizens are found in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) where 79 per cent think that all or most parliamentarians are corrupt, followed by Gabon with 71 per cent.”

Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.

Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself. Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections, which are likely delayed following a July vote by he National Assembly to extend its term in office. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat.

Reports Without Borders: “Well-known Cameroonian journalist Paul Chouta’s continuing detention is out of all proportion to the defamation and false news charges brought against him, Reporters Without Borders (RSF) said today after a court hearing in his case was postponed yet again in Yaoundé because the plaintiff failed to turn up.”

Mozambique Presidential, Legislative, and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since, but currently have a ceasefire). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.

RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities. Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth.

Joseph Hanlon, AllAfrica: “Mozambique: Constitutional Council Refuses to Consider Renamo Gaza Protest”

Antonio Cascais, DW: “Africa’s Green parties bet on international help….’The German Greens are a shining example for us Greens in Mozambique,’ says Joao Massango. The 47-year-old is the president of the ‘Partido Ecologista – Movimento da Terra’ (PEC-MT), which specializes in environmental issues. But unlike the German Greens, the PEC-MT has not been able to send a single member to parliament since it was founded in 1997.”

Somaliland Legislative and Local – November 1, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: De facto independent state (technically part of the Federal Parliamentary Republic of Somalia)

Somaliland has de facto but not internationally-recognized independence from the failed state of Somalia. The last elections for the House of Representatives happened in 2005. The upcoming elections set for November 2019 were due in 2010 but faced multiple delays. Despite the lack of recognition, Somaliland is a functional state with more freedom and better governance than the rest of Somalia.

Fred Oluoch, The East African: “28 years later, is there hope of independence for Somaliland?”

International Crisis Group: “The time for serious discussions about Somaliland’s political status will likely come after Somalia’s next elections. But waiting until then to have any talks at all would be dangerous: tensions between the two sides persist, regional powers are competing for advantage at a cost to local stability, and Somaliland and Puntland remain at loggerheads as forces gather in border areas.”

Chad Legislative and Local – Due 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Idriss Déby seized power in a rebellion in 1990, and although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote. Western governments, particularly France, view the Déby regime as a security partner in countering terrorism in the region, and provide military aid. Opposition activists face arrest and mistreatment. There are concerns that the regime uses counterterrorism as an excuse for suppressing legitimate political opposition.

The mandate of the current National Assembly expired in 2015, and the elections have been delayed multiple times. In 2018, President Idriss Déby announced that the elections would happen in the “first half of 2019,” without giving a date, but in May 2019, the government delayed the elections indefinitely again, citing cost. The opposition holds that the real issue is a lack of political will.

AFP: “Chad President Idriss Deby said Saturday he was lifting social media restrictions which were imposed more than a year ago for ‘security reasons’….Access was cut to social media in March last year as public opposition mounted over Deby’s plans to push through changes to the constitution shoring up his power after almost three decades in office.”

RFI (in French): “Idriss Déby meets the parties in Chad: a first missed opportunity. The Chadian head of state received Wednesday political parties to discuss the evolution of the electoral process.”

Guinea-Bissau Presidential – November 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

In March 2019, Guinea-Bissau finally held long-delayed legislative elections. The ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) won 47 out of 102 seats, but made deals with three smaller parties to form a coalition with 54 seats. Prone to coups (most recently in 2012), no elected leader has served a full term since independence from Portugal. The country remains in a political crisis, with President José Mário Vaz (known as Jomav) in a feud with his own party (PAIGC). Vaz plans to run for re-election. Sometimes dubbed “the world’s first narco-state,” it risks once again becoming a hub for drug traffickers. 

Clayton Besaw and Jonathan Powell, The Conversation: “Rivalries ahead of Guinea-Bissau’s election raise questions about stability”

Vatican News: “Guinea-Bissau Bishops call for peace and security”

Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic

Following three years of protests, Ethiopia’s ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners and opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful. However, violence could threaten Abiy’s reforms.

In the 2015 elections, the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats.

Dawit Endeshaw, Reuters: “A failed regional coup in Ethiopia has exposed rare divisions in the alliance that has dominated the country for three decades, with two of the four ethnic parties that form the ruling coalition trading insults in a public feud.”

Foreign Policy: “Ethiopia’s Year of Reckoning: Ahead of elections in 2020, Ethiopia has many problems to address. Here are our top reads on how Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power and what comes next.”

Hilary Matfess, Lawfare: “Can Abiy Keep Reforming?”

Muthoki Mumo, Committee to Protect Journalists: “In era of reform, Ethiopia still reverts to old tactics to censor press”

Burundi Presidential and Legislative – May 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

In 2015, President Pierre Nkurunziza ran for a third term, which critics said was unconstitutional. Nkurunziza’s decision sparked a political crisis. The opposition boycotted the election. Nkurunziza won, but the election was marred by violence and a coup attempt. In 2018, Nkurunziza said he would step down in 2020. Burundi’s 12-year civil war ended in 2005, but violence and authoritarianism have been on the rise. Many Burundians are nervous about the upcoming polls.

BBC: “The head of a Burundian militia accused of atrocities has been named to lead the state broadcaster, RTNB, sparking condemnation by human rights groups. Human Rights Watch said the appointment of Eric Nshimirimana was ‘a blow to all victims of abuse perpetrated by the Imbonerakure, as well as freedom of the press in Burundi.’”

Guinea Legislative – 2019 and Presidential – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Elections in Guinea routinely see significant delays and have historically been surrounded by ethnic tensions and violence. President Alpha Condé, a former opposition leader who came to power in 2010 following a transition from military to civilian rule, is prevented by the constitution from running for a third term in the presidential polls due in 2020. However, he wants to change the constitution to allow him to do so (which Russia is encouraging because Russian companies have mining interests in Guinea). The terms of the current legislators expired in January 2019. Condé extended their mandates, and a new election date has not been set.

Adem K. Abebe, Al-Jazeera: “It’s time for the African Union to put a stop to ‘third-termism’: The AU needs to take action against the Guinean president’s attempt to change the constitution and extend his rule.”

Côte d’Ivoire Presidential and Legislative – October 31, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Eric Topona, DW (in French): “Worries in Côte d’Ivoire ahead of elections: Less than a year away from the Ivorian presidential election, political tension is rising and the UN fears that it will worsen as election deadlines approach.”

Vincent Duhem, The Africa Report: “At first glance, the three major blocs that are expected to compete in the October 2020 presidential election in Côte d’Ivoire look almost identical to those that competed in 2010. But the political dynamics have changed dramatically. Alassane Dramane Ouattara (ADO), Henri Konan Bédié (HKB), Laurent Gbagbo. The first was Félix Houphouët-Boigny’s only prime minister; the second succeeded the independence-era president after his death in 1993; the third was his main opponent. All three have been driving Ivorian political life for 30 years.”

Uganda General – February 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Partly Free this year) – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Rodney Muhumuza, AP: “Ugandan pop star and opposition figure Bobi Wine said Monday he will challenge longtime President Yoweri Museveni in a 2021 election ‘on behalf of the people’….As the leader of a popular movement known as ‘People Power,’ Wine has captured the imagination of many who want to see the exit of Museveni, a U.S. ally on regional security who has held power since 1986 and looks set to seek a sixth term.”

Rosebell Kagumire, African Arguments: “Where conventional means of protest are deemed insufficient, radical rudeness draws attention by breaking norms. In Uganda, ‘women don’t swear, women are polite people,’ Nyanzi explained to journalist Alice McCool. The only way to challenge power then is to use vulgarity and upset notions of acceptable language.”

Sudan Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

In April, nonviolent demonstrations ousted Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir. In June 2019, around the 30th anniversary of Tiananmen Square, Sudanese troops massacred citizens protesting the regime.

Nadine Awadalla, Eltayeb Siddig, Khalid Abdelaziz, Reuters: “Tens of thousands demonstrated in cities across Sudan on Saturday, witnesses said, to mark 40 days since security forces killed dozens when they stormed a protest camp in the capital Khartoum.”

Jason Burke and Zeinab Mohammed Salih, The Guardian: “Ishraga Mohamed, a demonstrator, said the protest was ‘patriotic.’ ‘We demand the right of the martyrs and accountability for their deaths,’ she said. At least 128 people were killed during the raid and in the two weeks that followed, according to doctors linked to the opposition. The government confirmed at least 61 deaths.”

Adrienne Klasa, Financial Times: “The US has thrown its weight behind the power-sharing deal struck between Sudan’s military leaders and civilian groups, fearing that the alternative was a descent into state failure and violence.”

Samy Magdy, AP: “Sudan’s pro-democracy movement postponed a scheduled meeting with the country’s ruling generals for a second time on Sunday, saying ‘further consultations’ were needed before they would sign a power-sharing deal with the military.”

Sabine Faber with Reuters, DW: “Women were the driving force behind the protests that led to the downfall of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir. They continue to make great sacrifices as they fight for a peaceful transition of power in their country.”

BBC: “Sudan’s ruling military council has said it foiled an attempted coup aimed at blocking a power-sharing deal with opposition groups. More than a dozen people – among them former and current army officers and members of the security services – were arrested, a military spokesman said.”

Jérôme Tubiana, Foreign Policy: “How Darfur Became Sudan’s Kingmaker: The country’s strongman is using the region to cement his rule.”

Claire Doyen, AFP: “Sudan’s desert nomads untouched by Bashir’s downfall”

Past Elections
Mauritania Presidential – June 22, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Mauritania’s incumbent president, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, came to power in a military coup in 2009 and the country is rated “not free” by Freedom House, but some hope that political space could be opening up, albeit slowly. While most believed that the ruling Union for the Republic party’s candidate, Defense Minister Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, would win (and he was indeed declared the winner), opposition candidates, including anti-slavery activist Biram Dah Abeid, participated. This contrasts with the 2014 presidential election, which the opposition boycotted. There are concerns about the electoral process and the lack of international observers.

Afef Abrougui, Global Voices: “Mauritanian authorities restored access to the internet after disrupting it for 10 days following the disputed presidential elections of June 23. However, the government continues to restrict press freedom and freedom of expression as part of its post-election crackdown.”

Malawi Tripartite (Presidential, Legislative, Local) – May 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Mirriam Kaliza and Ineke Mules, DW: “Gender discrimination blamed for Malawi election allegations: A group of women in Malawi say Electoral Commission head Jane Ansah is being targeted because of her gender for her part in May’s disputed election. Other women say they are playing the gender card.”

Daniel Mumbere, Africa News: “In Malawi, President Peter Mutharika’s government is still struggling to pacify the defeated and disappointed opposition supporters, nearly two months after Malawians took to the polls in the country’s tripartite elections. Mutharika’s re-election has been challenged by opposition political parties and non-governmental organisations, in court and through street protests.”

Leo Mkhuwala, Maravi Post: “The High Court in Blantyre on Friday [July 12] ordered the elections referee, Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) to produce elections relevant documents and tender them before court as part of evidence in yet another elections dispute case.”

CNBC: “How has Malawi’s disputed elections impacted the economy?”

The Gambia Presidential – December 1, 2016  and Legislative – April 6, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

In December 2016, The Gambia began a remarkable transition to democracy. Citizens removed dictator Yahya Jammeh peacefully, via the ballot box, and began the process of establishing a free society.

BBC: “The Gambia’s revolution: What has changed?”

Louise Hunt, World Politics Review: “Can Gambia’s #MeToo Movement Help Bring Yahya Jammeh to Justice?”

The Year Ahead: Africa
Guinea legislative (overdue – mandates of current legislators expired January 13 – date not set for new elections); Chad legislative (originally due in 2015 but have been delayed several times – unclear when they will. actually happen); Liberia by-elections (July 8 -postponed); Zambia by-election in Katuba (July 30); Namibia Oshakati East by-election (August 24); Botswana parliamentary (October); Cameroon parliamentary (October); Mozambique presidential, legislative, provincial (October 15); Somalia, Somaliland congressional and local (November 1, 2019 – tentative); Guinea-Bissau presidential (November 24); Namibia presidential and legislative (November 27); Mauritius legislative (December); Senegal local (December 1); Mali legislative (May 2020 – long overdue – additional delays possible)


Somali members of Parliament line up in the Mogadishu Airport hangar to vote in the indirect presidential election on February 8, 2017. Photo credit: Flickr/Ilyas Ahmed, UN (public domain)

21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.

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