Upcoming Elections
Belize Village Elections – June 23-July 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Belize is dominated by two parties: Prime Minister Dean Barrow’s center-right United Democratic Party, which has been in government since 2008, and the center-left People’s United Party (PUP), which played a major role in negotiating Belize’s independence and dominated politics until the 1980s. Belize has general elections coming up in November 2020.
Breaking Belize News: “PUP claims victory in round 3 of village council elections”
Wellington C. Ramos, Caribbean News Now!: “Commentary: Village council, town board and city council elections in Belize without autonomy and local government reform has no real significance”
Guatemala General, Second Round – August 11, 2019 (first round was June 16)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
These elections are taking place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.
In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.
Caribbean News Now: “Three weeks after the Guatemalan presidential election, and subsequent to difficulties associated with the transmission of the results by computer systems, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) cannot explain why 23,000 extra votes were originally counted and how the voters were registered.”
Democracy Now!: “Two indigenous rights activists and land protectors were murdered in eastern Guatemala on Friday. Isidro Pérez and Melecio Ramírez were attending a peaceful action organized by the peasants’ rights group CODECA, when 15 armed men stormed in and started shooting at the group. CODECA’s leader Thelma Cabrera ran for president in last month’s Guatemalan elections, placing fourth in the race.”
Frances Jenner, Latin America Reports: “A comprehensive guide to Guatemala’s anti-corruption commission. A look at the current status of the International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) and what it has achieved in the country”
Geneva Sands and Priscilla Alvarez, CNN: “US getting closer to a ‘safe third country’ agreement with Guatemala”
Bolivia General – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republi
Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates.
Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.
Associated Press: “Speaking after talks in the Kremlin Thursday, Putin hailed the ‘strategic cooperation’ between the two countries, including Russia’s investment in Bolivia’s natural gas fields and a project to build a Russian research nuclear reactor in the country.”
Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
The election will be competitive, and some polls have shown that the Conservatives would beat incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals if the election were held today. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.
Steve Scherer, Reuters: “Canada’s Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is regaining momentum after a damaging political scandal and could win a general election scheduled for October, a Nanos Research poll showed on Tuesday.”
Stuart Lau, South China Morning Post: “Canada’s foreign minister has lambasted the sacked ambassador to China for “advising” Chinese officials on the upcoming Canadian election, in response to details that emerged in an interview with the South China Morning Post earlier this week.”
Brian Lilley, Toronto Sun: “Those are outrageous comments even for the man who was effectively fired as Justin Trudeau’s ambassador to China. McCallum, a long-time Liberal MP and senior cabinet minister, was appointed by Trudeau as ambassador in January 2017. He was fired in January for musings on the detention of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou. Even with that, these comments, effectively asking China to change its foreign policy to help the Liberal Party of Canada, are unsettling.”
J.J. McCullough, Washington Post: “Canada’s election will be deeply shaped by Trump”
Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 and Provincial – Throughout the year (next up: Santa Cruz on August 11, 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
On the presidential front: Incumbent Maucirio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.
Luisa Horowitz, AS/COA: “Explainer: Presidential Tickets in Argentina’s 2019 Election: After much speculation over who would be on the official ballots, Argentina’s 2019 election cycle is moving forward, with the deadlines for candidate and party alliance registration closed and the candidate lists published on June 24. Overall, nine tickets are in the race.”
Hernan Nessi, Reuters: “Early poll in Argentina predicts narrow election win for Macri in runoff”
Patrick Gillespie, Bloomberg: “Moody’s Investor Service shifted its outlook on Argentina to negative from stable on Friday, citing rising uncertainty about economic policy and risk of additional ‘damaging currency shocks.’”
The Economist: “Argentina’s main presidential candidates are ignoring the biggest problems”
Mark P. Jones, Baker Institute/Forbes: “Recap Of The 2019 Petro-Province Elections (So Far) In Argentina”
Debora Rey, Associated Press: “Former Argentine President Fernando De la Rúa, who attracted voters with his image as an honest statesman and later left as the country plunged into its worst economic crisis, died Tuesday at age 81.”
Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections.
Reuters: “Colombia is working to halt scores of slayings of community leaders by criminal groups and remnant bands of rebels following the country’s historic 2016 peace deal, President Ivan Duque said on Friday, during a visit from the UN Security Council….Duque’s government has said that, according to cases verified by the United Nations, 281 community leaders were killed from May 2016 to May 2019.”
Adriaan Alsema, Colombia Reports: “In its latest report, independent electoral observation organization MOE said that five mayoral candidates and two aspiring council members were among the 75 registered political assassinations. Thirty-seven political activists survived assassination attempts.”
AFP: “Colombia asked the UN Security Council on Friday to extend for another year its supervision of the fragile 2016 peace accord with FARC rebels that ended a half century of armed conflict.”
Dylan Baddour, Washington Post: “Coca, the illicit plant that funded Colombia’s civil war, is flourishing again. Duque’s plan to destroy it is drawing opposition.”
Alessia Noboa and Sofia Mateu-Gelabert, Global Americans: “Will the current state of polarized Colombian and U.S. politics undermine bilateral relations?”
Mat Youkee, The Guardian: “Colombia’s rebel poets: from ‘verbal terrorists’ to favoured sons”
Haiti Local and Partial Parliamentary (one third of the Senate and the entire lower house) – Due October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Haiti is in a political crisis. Political chaos related to allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. A commission found that the election had indeed been fraudulent, and ordered a re-reun, which had only 18 percent turnout. President Moïse Jovenel was elected with 56 percent of ballots cast. The opposition alleged fraud once again, but an election tribunal conducted an investigation and certified the results. Violent protesters have demanded the president’s ouster. The 2015-2016 parliamentary elections were also marred by significant fraud. The country is currently without a government as opposition lawmakers have blocked multiple attempts to ratify a new prime minister.
Jovenel Moïse, Miami Herald: “If Haiti gives me a government, we can work together toward a better future“
The Haiti Sentinel: “Four months out from election day and without a budget, without an electoral law, without an electoral register, without an electoral map and without a political agreement… the Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) headed by Léopold Berlanger believes that elections are virtually impossible for this year.“
Basil Roman, New York Carib News: “Security Council Approves Political Haiti Mission, Ending UN Peacekeeping Role”
Lise Howard, Washington Post: “Five myths about peacekeeping”
Amelie Baron, AFP: “Raped, widowed, homeless: Haiti’s slum women abandoned to gangs”
AFP-JIJI: “Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s choice of Port-au-Prince as the first stop in her Caribbean tour is highly symbolic of the diplomatic power struggle being played out in the region. Last year, the neighboring Dominican Republic dropped Taipei and threw in its diplomatic lot with Beijing, leaving Haiti as one of only 17 countries still officially recognizing Taiwan as a country.”
Trinidad and Tobago Local – November 2019 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Trinidad Guardian: “Speculation by the United National Congress (UNC) and the Movement for Social Justice (MSJ) that the Government will postpone Local Government Elections has been rubbished by Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley.”
Dominica Legislative – December 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit’s center-left Dominica Labour Party (DLP) has been in government since 2000. DLP lost seats following the 2014 parliamentary elections, but with 15 out of 21 seats still has a substantial majority. The main opposition United Workers’ Party (UWP) led by Lennox Linton has six seats. Home of the famous Boiling Lake, the world’s second-largest hot spring, rare birds, and natural beauty, the country has the potential to develop its tourism industry, but the lack of a major international airport has impeded growth. The debate over whether to build one has been going on for decades, and is a major issue in the upcoming elections. Skerrit has beenslow-rolling a decision on whether and how to build one, and some oppose the idea entirely.
Dominica News Online: “Pastor calls for stability and peace during upcoming election”
Guyana Snap Parliamentary – November 2019 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil. In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation has delayed the process. Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese.
Denis Chabrol, Demerara Waves: “The Guyana government wants the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) to rule that it cannot direct when general elections should be held and that if Parliament fails to extend the timeframe, the President should name elections date after a new Chairman of the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM) is appointed and advises him of its readiness….GECOM’s lawyer has already informed the court that the earliest GECOM can be ready for elections is December 25.”
RJR News: “Guyana’s Opposition Leader Bharrat Jagdeo has asked the [CCJ] to order President David Granger to hold election on September 18. Mr. Jagdeo has also requested through his lawyers that the CCJ instruct Mr. Granger to appoint a Chairman of the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM) in three days.”
News Room Guyana: “The [CCJ] Friday afternoon urged the President, the National Assembly and [GECOM] to abide by the letter and spirit of the clear constitutional provisions of a No Confidence vote – that elections should be held in three months.”
The Antigua Observer: “According to CANA, [CCJ] Friday ruled that it cannot ‘establish a date on or by which elections must be held’ in Guyana’…. CCJ President Justice Adrian Saunders delivering the ruling of the Court, which is Guyana’s highest, said that the CCJ also could ‘not lay down timelines and deadlines that in principle are the preserves of political actors guided by constitutional imperatives.’”
Denis Chabrol, Demerara Waves: “Negotiators send back GECOM chair issue to Granger, Jagdeo”
Venezuela – Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Sam Meredith, CNBC: “Venezuela’s internationally-recognized government set to hold fresh talks with Maduro envoys”
Anthony Faiola, Washington Post: “As Venezuelan talks resume, the opposition debates concessions over Maduro’s exit”
Argus Blog: “Government and opposition have started discussions, but Caracas threatens to seize oil assets as a US sanctions deadline looms. Venezuela’s government and its US-backed opposition are inching towards an agreement on holding presidential elections in nine months’ time, but initial negotiations in Barbados paused far from healing the Opec country’s divisions.”
France24: “Maduro ally rules out early presidential elections in Venezuela”
Catholic News Agency: “The Venezuelan bishops asked Thursday that president Nicolas Maduro resign from the office which he ‘illegitimately’ exercises and that a new president be elected in the shortest time possible.”
Americas This Week – July 13, 2019
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Last Updated: July 20, 2019 by 21votes
July 13, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore the Americas on Saturdays. Click the map pins.
Belize Village Elections – June 23-July 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Belize is dominated by two parties: Prime Minister Dean Barrow’s center-right United Democratic Party, which has been in government since 2008, and the center-left People’s United Party (PUP), which played a major role in negotiating Belize’s independence and dominated politics until the 1980s. Belize has general elections coming up in November 2020.
Breaking Belize News: “PUP claims victory in round 3 of village council elections”
Wellington C. Ramos, Caribbean News Now!: “Commentary: Village council, town board and city council elections in Belize without autonomy and local government reform has no real significance”
Guatemala General, Second Round – August 11, 2019 (first round was June 16)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
These elections are taking place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.
In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.
Caribbean News Now: “Three weeks after the Guatemalan presidential election, and subsequent to difficulties associated with the transmission of the results by computer systems, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) cannot explain why 23,000 extra votes were originally counted and how the voters were registered.”
Democracy Now!: “Two indigenous rights activists and land protectors were murdered in eastern Guatemala on Friday. Isidro Pérez and Melecio Ramírez were attending a peaceful action organized by the peasants’ rights group CODECA, when 15 armed men stormed in and started shooting at the group. CODECA’s leader Thelma Cabrera ran for president in last month’s Guatemalan elections, placing fourth in the race.”
Frances Jenner, Latin America Reports: “A comprehensive guide to Guatemala’s anti-corruption commission. A look at the current status of the International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) and what it has achieved in the country”
Geneva Sands and Priscilla Alvarez, CNN: “US getting closer to a ‘safe third country’ agreement with Guatemala”
Bolivia General – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republi
Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates.
Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.
Associated Press: “Speaking after talks in the Kremlin Thursday, Putin hailed the ‘strategic cooperation’ between the two countries, including Russia’s investment in Bolivia’s natural gas fields and a project to build a Russian research nuclear reactor in the country.”
Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
The election will be competitive, and some polls have shown that the Conservatives would beat incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals if the election were held today. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.
Steve Scherer, Reuters: “Canada’s Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is regaining momentum after a damaging political scandal and could win a general election scheduled for October, a Nanos Research poll showed on Tuesday.”
Stuart Lau, South China Morning Post: “Canada’s foreign minister has lambasted the sacked ambassador to China for “advising” Chinese officials on the upcoming Canadian election, in response to details that emerged in an interview with the South China Morning Post earlier this week.”
Brian Lilley, Toronto Sun: “Those are outrageous comments even for the man who was effectively fired as Justin Trudeau’s ambassador to China. McCallum, a long-time Liberal MP and senior cabinet minister, was appointed by Trudeau as ambassador in January 2017. He was fired in January for musings on the detention of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou. Even with that, these comments, effectively asking China to change its foreign policy to help the Liberal Party of Canada, are unsettling.”
J.J. McCullough, Washington Post: “Canada’s election will be deeply shaped by Trump”
Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 and Provincial – Throughout the year (next up: Santa Cruz on August 11, 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
On the presidential front: Incumbent Maucirio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.
Luisa Horowitz, AS/COA: “Explainer: Presidential Tickets in Argentina’s 2019 Election: After much speculation over who would be on the official ballots, Argentina’s 2019 election cycle is moving forward, with the deadlines for candidate and party alliance registration closed and the candidate lists published on June 24. Overall, nine tickets are in the race.”
Hernan Nessi, Reuters: “Early poll in Argentina predicts narrow election win for Macri in runoff”
Patrick Gillespie, Bloomberg: “Moody’s Investor Service shifted its outlook on Argentina to negative from stable on Friday, citing rising uncertainty about economic policy and risk of additional ‘damaging currency shocks.’”
The Economist: “Argentina’s main presidential candidates are ignoring the biggest problems”
Mark P. Jones, Baker Institute/Forbes: “Recap Of The 2019 Petro-Province Elections (So Far) In Argentina”
Debora Rey, Associated Press: “Former Argentine President Fernando De la Rúa, who attracted voters with his image as an honest statesman and later left as the country plunged into its worst economic crisis, died Tuesday at age 81.”
Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections.
Reuters: “Colombia is working to halt scores of slayings of community leaders by criminal groups and remnant bands of rebels following the country’s historic 2016 peace deal, President Ivan Duque said on Friday, during a visit from the UN Security Council….Duque’s government has said that, according to cases verified by the United Nations, 281 community leaders were killed from May 2016 to May 2019.”
Adriaan Alsema, Colombia Reports: “In its latest report, independent electoral observation organization MOE said that five mayoral candidates and two aspiring council members were among the 75 registered political assassinations. Thirty-seven political activists survived assassination attempts.”
AFP: “Colombia asked the UN Security Council on Friday to extend for another year its supervision of the fragile 2016 peace accord with FARC rebels that ended a half century of armed conflict.”
Dylan Baddour, Washington Post: “Coca, the illicit plant that funded Colombia’s civil war, is flourishing again. Duque’s plan to destroy it is drawing opposition.”
Alessia Noboa and Sofia Mateu-Gelabert, Global Americans: “Will the current state of polarized Colombian and U.S. politics undermine bilateral relations?”
Mat Youkee, The Guardian: “Colombia’s rebel poets: from ‘verbal terrorists’ to favoured sons”
Haiti Local and Partial Parliamentary (one third of the Senate and the entire lower house) – Due October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Haiti is in a political crisis. Political chaos related to allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. A commission found that the election had indeed been fraudulent, and ordered a re-reun, which had only 18 percent turnout. President Moïse Jovenel was elected with 56 percent of ballots cast. The opposition alleged fraud once again, but an election tribunal conducted an investigation and certified the results. Violent protesters have demanded the president’s ouster. The 2015-2016 parliamentary elections were also marred by significant fraud. The country is currently without a government as opposition lawmakers have blocked multiple attempts to ratify a new prime minister.
Jovenel Moïse, Miami Herald: “If Haiti gives me a government, we can work together toward a better future“
The Haiti Sentinel: “Four months out from election day and without a budget, without an electoral law, without an electoral register, without an electoral map and without a political agreement… the Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) headed by Léopold Berlanger believes that elections are virtually impossible for this year.“
Basil Roman, New York Carib News: “Security Council Approves Political Haiti Mission, Ending UN Peacekeeping Role”
Lise Howard, Washington Post: “Five myths about peacekeeping”
Amelie Baron, AFP: “Raped, widowed, homeless: Haiti’s slum women abandoned to gangs”
AFP-JIJI: “Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s choice of Port-au-Prince as the first stop in her Caribbean tour is highly symbolic of the diplomatic power struggle being played out in the region. Last year, the neighboring Dominican Republic dropped Taipei and threw in its diplomatic lot with Beijing, leaving Haiti as one of only 17 countries still officially recognizing Taiwan as a country.”
Trinidad and Tobago Local - November 2019 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Trinidad Guardian: “Speculation by the United National Congress (UNC) and the Movement for Social Justice (MSJ) that the Government will postpone Local Government Elections has been rubbished by Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley.”
Dominica Legislative - December 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit’s center-left Dominica Labour Party (DLP) has been in government since 2000. DLP lost seats following the 2014 parliamentary elections, but with 15 out of 21 seats still has a substantial majority. The main opposition United Workers’ Party (UWP) led by Lennox Linton has six seats. Home of the famous Boiling Lake, the world’s second-largest hot spring, rare birds, and natural beauty, the country has the potential to develop its tourism industry, but the lack of a major international airport has impeded growth. The debate over whether to build one has been going on for decades, and is a major issue in the upcoming elections. Skerrit has beenslow-rolling a decision on whether and how to build one, and some oppose the idea entirely.
Dominica News Online: “Pastor calls for stability and peace during upcoming election”
Guyana Snap Parliamentary – November 2019 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil. In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation has delayed the process. Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese.
Denis Chabrol, Demerara Waves: “The Guyana government wants the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) to rule that it cannot direct when general elections should be held and that if Parliament fails to extend the timeframe, the President should name elections date after a new Chairman of the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM) is appointed and advises him of its readiness….GECOM’s lawyer has already informed the court that the earliest GECOM can be ready for elections is December 25.”
RJR News: “Guyana’s Opposition Leader Bharrat Jagdeo has asked the [CCJ] to order President David Granger to hold election on September 18. Mr. Jagdeo has also requested through his lawyers that the CCJ instruct Mr. Granger to appoint a Chairman of the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM) in three days.”
News Room Guyana: “The [CCJ] Friday afternoon urged the President, the National Assembly and [GECOM] to abide by the letter and spirit of the clear constitutional provisions of a No Confidence vote – that elections should be held in three months.”
The Antigua Observer: “According to CANA, [CCJ] Friday ruled that it cannot ‘establish a date on or by which elections must be held’ in Guyana’…. CCJ President Justice Adrian Saunders delivering the ruling of the Court, which is Guyana’s highest, said that the CCJ also could ‘not lay down timelines and deadlines that in principle are the preserves of political actors guided by constitutional imperatives.’”
Denis Chabrol, Demerara Waves: “Negotiators send back GECOM chair issue to Granger, Jagdeo”
Venezuela – Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Sam Meredith, CNBC: “Venezuela’s internationally-recognized government set to hold fresh talks with Maduro envoys”
Anthony Faiola, Washington Post: “As Venezuelan talks resume, the opposition debates concessions over Maduro’s exit”
Argus Blog: “Government and opposition have started discussions, but Caracas threatens to seize oil assets as a US sanctions deadline looms. Venezuela’s government and its US-backed opposition are inching towards an agreement on holding presidential elections in nine months’ time, but initial negotiations in Barbados paused far from healing the Opec country’s divisions.”
France24: “Maduro ally rules out early presidential elections in Venezuela”
Catholic News Agency: “The Venezuelan bishops asked Thursday that president Nicolas Maduro resign from the office which he ‘illegitimately’ exercises and that a new president be elected in the shortest time possible.”
Upcoming Elections
Belize Village Elections – June 23-July 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Belize is dominated by two parties: Prime Minister Dean Barrow’s center-right United Democratic Party, which has been in government since 2008, and the center-left People’s United Party (PUP), which played a major role in negotiating Belize’s independence and dominated politics until the 1980s. Belize has general elections coming up in November 2020.
Breaking Belize News: “PUP claims victory in round 3 of village council elections”
Wellington C. Ramos, Caribbean News Now!: “Commentary: Village council, town board and city council elections in Belize without autonomy and local government reform has no real significance”
Guatemala General, Second Round – August 11, 2019 (first round was June 16)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
These elections are taking place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.
In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.
Caribbean News Now: “Three weeks after the Guatemalan presidential election, and subsequent to difficulties associated with the transmission of the results by computer systems, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) cannot explain why 23,000 extra votes were originally counted and how the voters were registered.”
Democracy Now!: “Two indigenous rights activists and land protectors were murdered in eastern Guatemala on Friday. Isidro Pérez and Melecio Ramírez were attending a peaceful action organized by the peasants’ rights group CODECA, when 15 armed men stormed in and started shooting at the group. CODECA’s leader Thelma Cabrera ran for president in last month’s Guatemalan elections, placing fourth in the race.”
Frances Jenner, Latin America Reports: “A comprehensive guide to Guatemala’s anti-corruption commission. A look at the current status of the International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) and what it has achieved in the country”
Geneva Sands and Priscilla Alvarez, CNN: “US getting closer to a ‘safe third country’ agreement with Guatemala”
Bolivia General – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republi
Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates.
Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.
Associated Press: “Speaking after talks in the Kremlin Thursday, Putin hailed the ‘strategic cooperation’ between the two countries, including Russia’s investment in Bolivia’s natural gas fields and a project to build a Russian research nuclear reactor in the country.”
Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
The election will be competitive, and some polls have shown that the Conservatives would beat incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals if the election were held today. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.
Steve Scherer, Reuters: “Canada’s Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is regaining momentum after a damaging political scandal and could win a general election scheduled for October, a Nanos Research poll showed on Tuesday.”
Stuart Lau, South China Morning Post: “Canada’s foreign minister has lambasted the sacked ambassador to China for “advising” Chinese officials on the upcoming Canadian election, in response to details that emerged in an interview with the South China Morning Post earlier this week.”
Brian Lilley, Toronto Sun: “Those are outrageous comments even for the man who was effectively fired as Justin Trudeau’s ambassador to China. McCallum, a long-time Liberal MP and senior cabinet minister, was appointed by Trudeau as ambassador in January 2017. He was fired in January for musings on the detention of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou. Even with that, these comments, effectively asking China to change its foreign policy to help the Liberal Party of Canada, are unsettling.”
J.J. McCullough, Washington Post: “Canada’s election will be deeply shaped by Trump”
Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 and Provincial – Throughout the year (next up: Santa Cruz on August 11, 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
On the presidential front: Incumbent Maucirio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.
Luisa Horowitz, AS/COA: “Explainer: Presidential Tickets in Argentina’s 2019 Election: After much speculation over who would be on the official ballots, Argentina’s 2019 election cycle is moving forward, with the deadlines for candidate and party alliance registration closed and the candidate lists published on June 24. Overall, nine tickets are in the race.”
Hernan Nessi, Reuters: “Early poll in Argentina predicts narrow election win for Macri in runoff”
Patrick Gillespie, Bloomberg: “Moody’s Investor Service shifted its outlook on Argentina to negative from stable on Friday, citing rising uncertainty about economic policy and risk of additional ‘damaging currency shocks.’”
The Economist: “Argentina’s main presidential candidates are ignoring the biggest problems”
Mark P. Jones, Baker Institute/Forbes: “Recap Of The 2019 Petro-Province Elections (So Far) In Argentina”
Debora Rey, Associated Press: “Former Argentine President Fernando De la Rúa, who attracted voters with his image as an honest statesman and later left as the country plunged into its worst economic crisis, died Tuesday at age 81.”
Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections.
Reuters: “Colombia is working to halt scores of slayings of community leaders by criminal groups and remnant bands of rebels following the country’s historic 2016 peace deal, President Ivan Duque said on Friday, during a visit from the UN Security Council….Duque’s government has said that, according to cases verified by the United Nations, 281 community leaders were killed from May 2016 to May 2019.”
Adriaan Alsema, Colombia Reports: “In its latest report, independent electoral observation organization MOE said that five mayoral candidates and two aspiring council members were among the 75 registered political assassinations. Thirty-seven political activists survived assassination attempts.”
AFP: “Colombia asked the UN Security Council on Friday to extend for another year its supervision of the fragile 2016 peace accord with FARC rebels that ended a half century of armed conflict.”
Dylan Baddour, Washington Post: “Coca, the illicit plant that funded Colombia’s civil war, is flourishing again. Duque’s plan to destroy it is drawing opposition.”
Alessia Noboa and Sofia Mateu-Gelabert, Global Americans: “Will the current state of polarized Colombian and U.S. politics undermine bilateral relations?”
Mat Youkee, The Guardian: “Colombia’s rebel poets: from ‘verbal terrorists’ to favoured sons”
Haiti Local and Partial Parliamentary (one third of the Senate and the entire lower house) – Due October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Haiti is in a political crisis. Political chaos related to allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. A commission found that the election had indeed been fraudulent, and ordered a re-reun, which had only 18 percent turnout. President Moïse Jovenel was elected with 56 percent of ballots cast. The opposition alleged fraud once again, but an election tribunal conducted an investigation and certified the results. Violent protesters have demanded the president’s ouster. The 2015-2016 parliamentary elections were also marred by significant fraud. The country is currently without a government as opposition lawmakers have blocked multiple attempts to ratify a new prime minister.
Jovenel Moïse, Miami Herald: “If Haiti gives me a government, we can work together toward a better future“
The Haiti Sentinel: “Four months out from election day and without a budget, without an electoral law, without an electoral register, without an electoral map and without a political agreement… the Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) headed by Léopold Berlanger believes that elections are virtually impossible for this year.“
Basil Roman, New York Carib News: “Security Council Approves Political Haiti Mission, Ending UN Peacekeeping Role”
Lise Howard, Washington Post: “Five myths about peacekeeping”
Amelie Baron, AFP: “Raped, widowed, homeless: Haiti’s slum women abandoned to gangs”
AFP-JIJI: “Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s choice of Port-au-Prince as the first stop in her Caribbean tour is highly symbolic of the diplomatic power struggle being played out in the region. Last year, the neighboring Dominican Republic dropped Taipei and threw in its diplomatic lot with Beijing, leaving Haiti as one of only 17 countries still officially recognizing Taiwan as a country.”
Trinidad and Tobago Local – November 2019 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Trinidad Guardian: “Speculation by the United National Congress (UNC) and the Movement for Social Justice (MSJ) that the Government will postpone Local Government Elections has been rubbished by Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley.”
Dominica Legislative – December 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit’s center-left Dominica Labour Party (DLP) has been in government since 2000. DLP lost seats following the 2014 parliamentary elections, but with 15 out of 21 seats still has a substantial majority. The main opposition United Workers’ Party (UWP) led by Lennox Linton has six seats. Home of the famous Boiling Lake, the world’s second-largest hot spring, rare birds, and natural beauty, the country has the potential to develop its tourism industry, but the lack of a major international airport has impeded growth. The debate over whether to build one has been going on for decades, and is a major issue in the upcoming elections. Skerrit has beenslow-rolling a decision on whether and how to build one, and some oppose the idea entirely.
Dominica News Online: “Pastor calls for stability and peace during upcoming election”
Guyana Snap Parliamentary – November 2019 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil. In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation has delayed the process. Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese.
Denis Chabrol, Demerara Waves: “The Guyana government wants the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) to rule that it cannot direct when general elections should be held and that if Parliament fails to extend the timeframe, the President should name elections date after a new Chairman of the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM) is appointed and advises him of its readiness….GECOM’s lawyer has already informed the court that the earliest GECOM can be ready for elections is December 25.”
RJR News: “Guyana’s Opposition Leader Bharrat Jagdeo has asked the [CCJ] to order President David Granger to hold election on September 18. Mr. Jagdeo has also requested through his lawyers that the CCJ instruct Mr. Granger to appoint a Chairman of the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM) in three days.”
News Room Guyana: “The [CCJ] Friday afternoon urged the President, the National Assembly and [GECOM] to abide by the letter and spirit of the clear constitutional provisions of a No Confidence vote – that elections should be held in three months.”
The Antigua Observer: “According to CANA, [CCJ] Friday ruled that it cannot ‘establish a date on or by which elections must be held’ in Guyana’…. CCJ President Justice Adrian Saunders delivering the ruling of the Court, which is Guyana’s highest, said that the CCJ also could ‘not lay down timelines and deadlines that in principle are the preserves of political actors guided by constitutional imperatives.’”
Denis Chabrol, Demerara Waves: “Negotiators send back GECOM chair issue to Granger, Jagdeo”
Venezuela – Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Sam Meredith, CNBC: “Venezuela’s internationally-recognized government set to hold fresh talks with Maduro envoys”
Anthony Faiola, Washington Post: “As Venezuelan talks resume, the opposition debates concessions over Maduro’s exit”
Argus Blog: “Government and opposition have started discussions, but Caracas threatens to seize oil assets as a US sanctions deadline looms. Venezuela’s government and its US-backed opposition are inching towards an agreement on holding presidential elections in nine months’ time, but initial negotiations in Barbados paused far from healing the Opec country’s divisions.”
France24: “Maduro ally rules out early presidential elections in Venezuela”
Catholic News Agency: “The Venezuelan bishops asked Thursday that president Nicolas Maduro resign from the office which he ‘illegitimately’ exercises and that a new president be elected in the shortest time possible.”
The Year Ahead: Americas
Canada provincial and territorial (throughout the year); Belize village councils (June 23-July 28); Guatemala general second round (August 18); Bolivia presidential and legislative (October); Haiti parliamentary (October); Bolivia presidential and legislative (October 20); Canada general (on or before October 21 – exact date not set yet); Argentina presidential and legislative (October 27); Uruguay presidential and legislative (October 27); Colombia local (October 27); Guyana snap parliamentary (November); Trinidad and Tobago local (November) Dominica legislative (December); St. Kitts and Nevis legislative (February)
A ballot box for Haiti’s 2011 elections. Photo credit: Flickr/OAS
21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.
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Category: This Week Tags: Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Canada, Colombia, Dominica, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela