Asia This Week – July 12, 2019

July 12, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Asia and the Pacific on Fridays. Click the map pins.

Papua New Guinea Local - July 20-25, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)

Papua New Guinea’s politics are chaotic, and no single party has ever commanded a majority in parliament. Coalitions shift frequently. James Marape became prime minister in May 2018 when former prime minister Peter O’Neill lost a no-confidence vote after being in power for eight years. It is unclear whether Marape will effectively address Papua New Guinea’s continuing problems of corruption and mismanagement of the economy. For the local elections, voters will elect representatives to 29 urban and 302 rural local level government assemblies.

VOA News: “23 Dead in Papua New Guinea Tribal Massacres”

Japan Legislative (half of upper house) – July 21, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy

124 out of the 245 seats in the House of Councillors, the upper house of the bicameral National Diet, are up for election, for six-year terms. Shinzo Abe’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) seeks to gain a two-thirds majority in the upper house (which it already holds in the lower house with coalition partner Komeito, a Buddhist religious party) in order to revisit and possibly amend Japan’s pacifist constitution. Some had speculated that Abe would also call a snap election to the lower house to be held concurrently (otherwise, lower house elections are not due until 2021), but that Abe dismissed the idea. Nationwide local elections in April saw low turnout and little competition – more than 20 percent of seats were uncontested. Provincial gubernatorial elections are also happening throughout the year. Recent concerns over Japan’s pension systems looked set to threaten Abe’s grip on power, but his government won a no-confidence motion in the lower house and currently looks stable.

Reuters: “Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s coalition is on track to win a solid majority in a July 21 upper house election, and his dream of revising the pacifist constitution could still be alive if enough allies also win, a survey showed on Saturday.”

https://twitter.com/WilliamPesek/status/1149233994577268736

Japan Times: “Abe calls for constitutional amendments proposals to be debated in Diet

Japan Today: “The ratio of women among candidates for Japan’s upcoming upper house election hit a record high, but the question of whether the country can achieve its target of raising the percentage of female lawmakers in parliament to 30 percent remains. A total of 104 women are running for the July 21 election, making up 28.1 percent among the candidates, compared with 24.7 percent in the previous poll for the chamber in 2016, showing a gradual change in a country where men have historically dominated politics.”

Editorial, The Japan Times: “Whether the women will emerge from the race to accordingly boost their presence in the Diet is now up to the voters. Japan lags far behind many other countries around the world in terms of women’s participation in politics.”

Min Joo Kim, Washington Post: “South Korea’s leader warned Wednesday of an “unprecedented emergency” in relations with Japan, as a spat between the U.S. allies over historical grievances threatens to boil over into a full-blown economic confrontation and damage the global electronics industry.”

India, Haryana State and Maharashtra State Assemblies – October 2019 and Jharkhand State Assembly – November 2019 (plus a Lok Sabha by-election August 5, 2019 in Vellore)

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic

India has 29 states and seven union territories. Indian states are big – Maharashtra, whose capital is Mumbai, has 112 million people, Haryana 25 million, and Jharkhand 32 million. Coalitions headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently control all three state legislatures. The BJP won a massive victory in elections to the Lok Sabha, India’s national parliament, earlier this year, giving it a second term in power as the majority party able to govern without coalition partners, in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – did well in a series of state elections late last year but is reeling from the whiplash of defeat in the Lok Sabha polls. The state elections are happening in the context of a renewed push from Modi to institute “one nation, one election” – a proposal to hold state elections at the same time as elections to the Lok Sabha.

Sadanand Dhume, Wall Street Journal: “It’s Game Over for the Gandhis as a Political Dynasty Dies. India’s Congress Party has become a rudderless mess. Its leader’s resignation is a chance to begin anew.”

Johnny Harris and Christina Thornell, Vox (mini-documentary): “How India runs the world’s biggest election: What it takes to reach 900 million voters”

Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China

Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. However, a series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets – could boost the pro-democracy camp.

Natalie Lung, Bloomberg: “Hong Kong Protests Revive a Demand That China Hates: Real Elections”

Michael Smith, Australian Financial Review: “Mass protests against the Hong Kong government’s extradition laws have fuelled a student-led campaign to boost voter turnout at upcoming local council elections, in a move organisers say will benefit pro-democracy political candidates. Emboldened by the huge show of public support at rallies opposed to the extradition bill, political activists, unions and students said Hong Kong’s District Council elections in November would be the next big political test for the former British colony now under Chinese rule.”

Kelly Chernin, The Conversation: “Under Lam’s leadership, traditionally pro-democracy politicians were removed from office. Some were even arrested and jailed as dissidents. Today, only 24 pro-democracy politicians remain in Hong Kong’s 70-seat legislative council.”

Sri Lanka Presidential – December 7, 2019 and Parliamentary – February 2020

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Sri Lanka is still feeling the aftershocks of a series of terrorist attacks over Easter 2019 and a 2018 political crisis in which President Maithripala Sirisena tried to dissolve parliament and remove Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe from office and replace him with former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was president from 2005 to 2015. Ultimately, Wickremesinghe was reinstated, but the crisis has deep roots and tensions remain high in Sri Lankan politics.

The two major parties are Sirisena’s center-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Wickremesinghe’s center-right United National Party. Rajapaksa left the SLPF in 2018 and now leads the populist Sri Lanka People’s Front/Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). In the last presidential elections, Rajapaksa surprisingly lost to Sirisena, who embarked on a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Rajapaksa had built up. Sirisena is eligible to run for a second term and could run again. His potential challengers include Wickremesinghe and one of Rajapaksa’s siblings (Rajapaksa is not eligible to run for president again due to term limits adopted during Sirisena’s presidency). Rajapaksa’s SLPP did well in local elections last year. Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice, and the upcoming elections could well determine whether it strengthens or deteriorates.

Reuters: “The Sri Lankan government on Thursday [July 11] defeated a no-confidence motion brought by an opposition party over what it called “criminal negligence” in failing to prevent Easter Day bomb attacks on hotels and churches that killed more than 250 people. The motion, brought by the small Marxist opposition party Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna or Peoples Liberation Front, was defeated by 119-92 votes.”

Bharatha Mallawarach, AP: “Wickremesinghe’s defeat of the motion is expected to strengthen his hand in his rivalry with the country’s president, Maithripala Sirisena, ahead of elections slated for this year — including a presidential election which both Sirisena and Wickremesinghe are expected to contest.”

Johanna Slater and Hafeel Farisz, Washington Post: “After Sri Lankan attacks, Muslims face boycotts and violence: Experts worry that Sri Lanka, a multiethnic and multireligious democracy whose civil war ended in 2009, is poised for a new outbreak of tensions. This time, the divisions are emerging along religious lines, rather than the long-standing ethnic cleavage between Sinhalese and Tamils.”

Asian Tribune: “Sri Lanka Muslims to field first separate Muslim candidate in coming Presidential elections”

Al-Jazeera: “Sri Lanka on alert as Buddhist monks meet over presidential vote: Bodu Bala Sena holds first meeting since Easter attacks to decide who to back in presidential election later this year.”

Shihar Aneez and Aditi Shah, Reuters: “Hardline Sri Lanka monk calls for Buddhist Sinhalese government”

Hannah Beech, New York Times: “Buddhists Go to Battle: When Nationalism Overrides Pacifism A call to arms for Sri Lankan monks. Ethnic cleansing of the Rohingya in Myanmar. A Buddhist faith known for pacifism is taking its place in a new age of nationalism.”

Taiwan Presidential and Legislative – January 11, 2020 (Kuomintang party primaries July 5-15, 2019)

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republi

Taiwan has a robust democracy. The two main parties are President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT, founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate. Tsai won the DPP presidential primary, and the KMT holds its own primary next month. Candidates include Terry Guo, Taiwan’s richest man, and Beijing’s choice, Han Kuo-yu, the populist mayor of Kaohsiung, a major port city in the south. The DPP currently controls the Legislative Yuan. Last year’s local elections swept the KMT back into many local offices that they had lost during the 2014 local elections – with some assistance from China. China is expected to attempt to influence the upcoming elections as well.

Nick Aspinwall, The Diplomat: “Taiwan’s KMT Will Choose Its Candidate to Challenge a Resurgent President Tsai. KMT contenders struggle to pull away from each other as political momentum shifts back to the ruling DPP.”

Randy Mulyanto, Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter: “Hong Kong sets an
example to push Taiwan even further from China.
Taiwan’s close watch on Hong Kong has only firmed its opposition to Beijing’s ‘one country, two systems.’”

Hilton Yip, Foreign Policy: “Xi Jinping Is Tsai Ing-wen’s Best Poster Boy. Taiwan’s president is getting a reelection boost from Beijing’s aggression.”

Charlie Campbell, Time: “Foxconn Founder Terry Gou Wants to be Taiwan’s President—and a Go-Between for U.S. and China”

Channel News Asia: “The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) passed its first list of legislative candidates recruited for difficult electoral districts in the 2020 race Wednesday, moving one step closer to its goal of completing the party’s list of regional legislative candidates by July.”

Mongolia Parliamentary – June 2020

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

Mongolia has been a democracy since 1990 but is currently embroiled in political turmoil, and its safeguards of democracy are beginning to unravel. Politics are gridlocked due to hostilities between President Khaltmaagiin Battulga of the center-right Democratic Party (DP) and the government, appointed by the left-wing Mongolian People’s Party (MPP), which holds 65 out of 76 seats in the State Great Khural, Mongolia’s unicameral parliament. Battulga narrowly won in Mongolia’s first-ever presidential runoff 2017, and his DP only seven seats in parliament. Corruption has become a perennial problem, and has sparked protests, and many Mongolians are generally disillusioned with politicians.

Roncevert Ganan Almont, The Diplomat: “Can Mongolia Shape the Modern World Once Again? With the U.S. as its partner, Mongolia could make a significant contribution to the region.”

Burma Parliamentary – Expected late 2020

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Burma, also called Myanmar, seemed to be moving toward democracy following the  country’s first credible, relatively free elections in 2015, which swept Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) to power following decades of military dictatorship. Once held up by the global community as a paragon of moral authority for giving up her own freedom in the fight for democracy, Suu Kyi’s tenure as the country’s de facto leader has disappointed many. Burma still has hundreds of political prisoners, including many who were arrested after the NLD came to power. Ethnic conflicts continue between the dominant Burmans, who comprise roughly 60 percent of the population, and different minority groups. The crisis in Rakhine or Arakan State with the Muslim Rohingya, which some have called a genocide, has created 700,000 refugees in neighboring Bangladesh and 128,000 internally displaced people. During by-elections in 2018, the NLD won seven out of 13 seats, but lost five out of six in non-Burman areas.

NOTE Add a bit to overview about Rohingya/Arakan

San Yamin Aung, The Irrawaddy: “The failure of Myanmar’s ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) party to build healthy relationships with the country’s ethnic populations and their political parties could hurt the Daw Aung San Suu Kyi-led party in the general election next year, especially in ethnic states.”

Myanmar Peace Monitor: “Since ongoing armed conflicts between the Tatmadaw and the AA continue in Arakan State, political parties and other organizations are concerned if the 2020 election can be held in the region. U Myo Kyaw from the Arakan League for Democracy (ALD) predicted that the 2020 election cannot be held in the northern Arakan State due to the continued fighting.”

Malaysia Local Elections - TBD

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy

In last year’s parliamentary elections, Mahathir Mohamed led his Pakatan Haratan (Alliance of Hope) party to a surprise victory over the Barisan Nasional coalition and its primary member, United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which had been in power since Malaysia’s 1957 independence. In 1976, the government abolished local elections and instituted the practice of appointing the members of the country’s 146 local councils. Malaysia is currently debating whether to hold local elections.

Malaysiakini: “Reviving local gov’t polls: Ministry to present paper to cabinet by year-end”

Tunki Zain Al-‘Abidin, The Star: “With the Bill to lower the voting age to 18, hopefully other electoral reforms like electing senators, restoring local elections and making the Election Commission more powerful yet accountable can follow.”

The Star: “Umno: Local council polls will divide nation….[Unmo deputy president Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan] said having local council elections might seem democratic, but it was not the only answer to problems faced by local councils now.”

Kua Kia Soong, Malaysiakini: “Only elected councils can prevent environmental scandals”

Bernama, Malaysiakini: “The Paroi New Village head election today, the first time such an election was held in Negeri Sembilan, saw a voter turnout of 41.39 percent or 339 out of the 821 eligible voters in the area. Using the general election voting approach, the village head election started at 9am and ended at 3pm, with Chong Hoong Ming garnering 226 votes, defeating his opponent, Farm Li Ping who obtained 113 votes.”

Tashny Sukumaran and Bhavan Jaipragas, South China Morning Post: “Mahathir Mohamad turns 94 and has a new goal to reunite Malays. But what for?”

Singapore General – April 2021 (snap possible)

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

People’s Action Party, co-founded by Lee Kuan Yew Singapore’s first prime minister, has been in power since 1959. While elections aren’t rigged in the classic sense (no stuffed ballot boxes), they take place in a context that effectively prevents the opposition from actually taking power, and the opposition has not historically run to actually win – their pitch to voters has been promises to provide a check on the PAP. The government uses a variety of tactics – including libel lawsuits, influence over the media, and laws that restrict political speech – to hamstring the opposition, while arguing that Singaporeans support PAP because it has governed competently. The 2015 elections gave PAP 83 out of the 89 elected seats in parliament. The next elections are due in 2021, but Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (Lee Kuan Yew’s son) has hinted that he would call early elections.

Ranjeetha Pakia and Joyce Koh, Bloomberg: “Singapore Minister Says Economy a Key Issue as Elections Loom”

Peh Shing Huei, South China Morning Post: “Singapore election: why lots of parties will make little difference: Ten possible challengers may seem like a genuine threat to the ruling People’s Action Party, but it is a sign of a lack of a coherent and centralised strategy”

Philippines Legislative – May 13, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Brendan Cole, Newsweek: “Human rights lawyer Amal Clooney will defend Philippines journalist Maria Ressa who faces a number of charges her legal team say are designed to muzzle press freedom. Ressa is the co-founder and editor of the online news website Rappler, which has covered human rights abuses carried out under Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte.”

Rob Picheta, CNN: “Duterte critic Maria Ressa says attacks on press freedom come from all sides”

Upcoming Elections
Papua New Guinea Local – July 20-25, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)

Papua New Guinea’s politics are chaotic, and no single party has ever commanded a majority in parliament. Coalitions shift frequently. James Marape became prime minister in May 2018 when former prime minister Peter O’Neill lost a no-confidence vote after being in power for eight years. It is unclear whether Marape will effectively address Papua New Guinea’s continuing problems of corruption and mismanagement of the economy. For the local elections, voters will elect representatives to 29 urban and 302 rural local level government assemblies.

VOA News: “23 Dead in Papua New Guinea Tribal Massacres”

Japan Legislative (half of upper house) – July 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy

124 out of the 245 seats in the House of Councillors, the upper house of the bicameral National Diet, are up for election, for six-year terms. Shinzo Abe’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) seeks to gain a two-thirds majority in the upper house (which it already holds in the lower house with coalition partner Komeito, a Buddhist religious party) in order to revisit and possibly amend Japan’s pacifist constitution. Some had speculated that Abe would also call a snap election to the lower house to be held concurrently (otherwise, lower house elections are not due until 2021), but that Abe dismissed the idea. Nationwide local elections in April saw low turnout and little competition – more than 20 percent of seats were uncontested. Provincial gubernatorial elections are also happening throughout the year. Recent concerns over Japan’s pension systems looked set to threaten Abe’s grip on power, but his government won a no-confidence motion in the lower house and currently looks stable.

Reuters: “Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s coalition is on track to win a solid majority in a July 21 upper house election, and his dream of revising the pacifist constitution could still be alive if enough allies also win, a survey showed on Saturday.”

Japan Times: “Abe calls for constitutional amendments proposals to be debated in Diet

Japan Today: “The ratio of women among candidates for Japan’s upcoming upper house election hit a record high, but the question of whether the country can achieve its target of raising the percentage of female lawmakers in parliament to 30 percent remains. A total of 104 women are running for the July 21 election, making up 28.1 percent among the candidates, compared with 24.7 percent in the previous poll for the chamber in 2016, showing a gradual change in a country where men have historically dominated politics.”

Editorial, The Japan Times: “Whether the women will emerge from the race to accordingly boost their presence in the Diet is now up to the voters. Japan lags far behind many other countries around the world in terms of women’s participation in politics.”

Min Joo Kim, Washington Post: “South Korea’s leader warned Wednesday of an “unprecedented emergency” in relations with Japan, as a spat between the U.S. allies over historical grievances threatens to boil over into a full-blown economic confrontation and damage the global electronics industry.”

India, Haryana State and Maharashtra State Assemblies – October 2019 and Jharkhand State Assembly – November 2019 (plus a Lok Sabha by-election August 5, 2019 in Vellore)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic

India has 29 states and seven union territories. Indian states are big – Maharashtra, whose capital is Mumbai, has 112 million people, Haryana 25 million, and Jharkhand 32 million. Coalitions headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently control all three state legislatures. The BJP won a massive victory in elections to the Lok Sabha, India’s national parliament, earlier this year, giving it a second term in power as the majority party able to govern without coalition partners, in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – did well in a series of state elections late last year but is reeling from the whiplash of defeat in the Lok Sabha polls. The state elections are happening in the context of a renewed push from Modi to institute “one nation, one election” – a proposal to hold state elections at the same time as elections to the Lok Sabha.

Sadanand Dhume, Wall Street Journal: “It’s Game Over for the Gandhis as a Political Dynasty Dies. India’s Congress Party has become a rudderless mess. Its leader’s resignation is a chance to begin anew.”

Johnny Harris and Christina Thornell, Vox (mini-documentary): “How India runs the world’s biggest election: What it takes to reach 900 million voters”

Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China

Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. However, a series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets – could boost the pro-democracy camp.

Natalie Lung, Bloomberg: “Hong Kong Protests Revive a Demand That China Hates: Real Elections”

Michael Smith, Australian Financial Review: “Mass protests against the Hong Kong government’s extradition laws have fuelled a student-led campaign to boost voter turnout at upcoming local council elections, in a move organisers say will benefit pro-democracy political candidates. Emboldened by the huge show of public support at rallies opposed to the extradition bill, political activists, unions and students said Hong Kong’s District Council elections in November would be the next big political test for the former British colony now under Chinese rule.”

Kelly Chernin, The Conversation: “Under Lam’s leadership, traditionally pro-democracy politicians were removed from office. Some were even arrested and jailed as dissidents. Today, only 24 pro-democracy politicians remain in Hong Kong’s 70-seat legislative council.”

Sri Lanka Presidential – December 7, 2019 and Parliamentary – February 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Sri Lanka is still feeling the aftershocks of a series of terrorist attacks over Easter 2019 and a 2018 political crisis in which President Maithripala Sirisena tried to dissolve parliament and remove Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe from office and replace him with former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was president from 2005 to 2015. Ultimately, Wickremesinghe was reinstated, but the crisis has deep roots and tensions remain high in Sri Lankan politics.

The two major parties are Sirisena’s center-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Wickremesinghe’s center-right United National Party. Rajapaksa left the SLPF in 2018 and now leads the populist Sri Lanka People’s Front/Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). In the last presidential elections, Rajapaksa surprisingly lost to Sirisena, who embarked on a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Rajapaksa had built up. Sirisena is eligible to run for a second term and could run again. His potential challengers include Wickremesinghe and one of Rajapaksa’s siblings (Rajapaksa is not eligible to run for president again due to term limits adopted during Sirisena’s presidency). Rajapaksa’s SLPP did well in local elections last year. Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice, and the upcoming elections could well determine whether it strengthens or deteriorates.

Reuters: “The Sri Lankan government on Thursday [July 11] defeated a no-confidence motion brought by an opposition party over what it called “criminal negligence” in failing to prevent Easter Day bomb attacks on hotels and churches that killed more than 250 people. The motion, brought by the small Marxist opposition party Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna or Peoples Liberation Front, was defeated by 119-92 votes.”

Bharatha Mallawarach, AP: “Wickremesinghe’s defeat of the motion is expected to strengthen his hand in his rivalry with the country’s president, Maithripala Sirisena, ahead of elections slated for this year — including a presidential election which both Sirisena and Wickremesinghe are expected to contest.”

Johanna Slater and Hafeel Farisz, Washington Post: “After Sri Lankan attacks, Muslims face boycotts and violence: Experts worry that Sri Lanka, a multiethnic and multireligious democracy whose civil war ended in 2009, is poised for a new outbreak of tensions. This time, the divisions are emerging along religious lines, rather than the long-standing ethnic cleavage between Sinhalese and Tamils.”

Asian Tribune: “Sri Lanka Muslims to field first separate Muslim candidate in coming Presidential elections”


Al-Jazeera: “Sri Lanka on alert as Buddhist monks meet over presidential vote: Bodu Bala Sena holds first meeting since Easter attacks to decide who to back in presidential election later this year.”

Shihar Aneez and Aditi Shah, Reuters: “Hardline Sri Lanka monk calls for Buddhist Sinhalese government”

Hannah Beech, New York Times: “Buddhists Go to Battle: When Nationalism Overrides Pacifism A call to arms for Sri Lankan monks. Ethnic cleansing of the Rohingya in Myanmar. A Buddhist faith known for pacifism is taking its place in a new age of nationalism.”

Taiwan Presidential and Legislative – January 11, 2020 (Kuomintang party primaries July 5-15, 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republi

Taiwan has a robust democracy. The two main parties are President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT, founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate. Tsai won the DPP presidential primary, and the KMT holds its own primary next month. Candidates include Terry Guo, Taiwan’s richest man, and Beijing’s choice, Han Kuo-yu, the populist mayor of Kaohsiung, a major port city in the south. The DPP currently controls the Legislative Yuan. Last year’s local elections swept the KMT back into many local offices that they had lost during the 2014 local elections – with some assistance from China. China is expected to attempt to influence the upcoming elections as well.

Nick Aspinwall, The Diplomat: “Taiwan’s KMT Will Choose Its Candidate to Challenge a Resurgent President Tsai. KMT contenders struggle to pull away from each other as political momentum shifts back to the ruling DPP.”

Randy Mulyanto, Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter: “Hong Kong sets an
example to push Taiwan even further from China.
Taiwan’s close watch on Hong Kong has only firmed its opposition to Beijing’s ‘one country, two systems.’”

Hilton Yip, Foreign Policy: “Xi Jinping Is Tsai Ing-wen’s Best Poster Boy. Taiwan’s president is getting a reelection boost from Beijing’s aggression.”

Charlie Campbell, Time: “Foxconn Founder Terry Gou Wants to be Taiwan’s President—and a Go-Between for U.S. and China”

Channel News Asia: “The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) passed its first list of legislative candidates recruited for difficult electoral districts in the 2020 race Wednesday, moving one step closer to its goal of completing the party’s list of regional legislative candidates by July.”

Mongolia Parliamentary – June 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

Mongolia has been a democracy since 1990 but is currently embroiled in political turmoil, and its safeguards of democracy are beginning to unravel. Politics are gridlocked due to hostilities between President Khaltmaagiin Battulga of the center-right Democratic Party (DP) and the government, appointed by the left-wing Mongolian People’s Party (MPP), which holds 65 out of 76 seats in the State Great Khural, Mongolia’s unicameral parliament. Battulga narrowly won in Mongolia’s first-ever presidential runoff 2017, and his DP only seven seats in parliament. Corruption has become a perennial problem, and has sparked protests, and many Mongolians are generally disillusioned with politicians.

Roncevert Ganan Almont, The Diplomat: “Can Mongolia Shape the Modern World Once Again? With the U.S. as its partner, Mongolia could make a significant contribution to the region.”

Burma Parliamentary – Expected late 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Burma, also called Myanmar, seemed to be moving toward democracy following the  country’s first credible, relatively free elections in 2015, which swept Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) to power following decades of military dictatorship. Once held up by the global community as a paragon of moral authority for giving up her own freedom in the fight for democracy, Suu Kyi’s tenure as the country’s de facto leader has disappointed many. Burma still has hundreds of political prisoners, including many who were arrested after the NLD came to power. Ethnic conflicts continue between the dominant Burmans, who comprise roughly 60 percent of the population, and different minority groups. The crisis in Rakhine or Arakan State with the Muslim Rohingya, which some have called a genocide, has created 700,000 refugees in neighboring Bangladesh and 128,000 internally displaced people. During by-elections in 2018, the NLD won seven out of 13 seats, but lost five out of six in non-Burman areas.

NOTE Add a bit to overview about Rohingya/Arakan

San Yamin Aung, The Irrawaddy: “The failure of Myanmar’s ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) party to build healthy relationships with the country’s ethnic populations and their political parties could hurt the Daw Aung San Suu Kyi-led party in the general election next year, especially in ethnic states.”

Myanmar Peace Monitor: “Since ongoing armed conflicts between the Tatmadaw and the AA continue in Arakan State, political parties and other organizations are concerned if the 2020 election can be held in the region. U Myo Kyaw from the Arakan League for Democracy (ALD) predicted that the 2020 election cannot be held in the northern Arakan State due to the continued fighting.”

Singapore General – April 2021 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

People’s Action Party, co-founded by Lee Kuan Yew Singapore’s first prime minister, has been in power since 1959. While elections aren’t rigged in the classic sense (no stuffed ballot boxes), they take place in a context that effectively prevents the opposition from actually taking power, and the opposition has not historically run to actually win – their pitch to voters has been promises to provide a check on the PAP. The government uses a variety of tactics – including libel lawsuits, influence over the media, and laws that restrict political speech – to hamstring the opposition, while arguing that Singaporeans support PAP because it has governed competently. The 2015 elections gave PAP 83 out of the 89 elected seats in parliament. The next elections are due in 2021, but Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (Lee Kuan Yew’s son) has hinted that he would call early elections.

Ranjeetha Pakia and Joyce Koh, Bloomberg: “Singapore Minister Says Economy a Key Issue as Elections Loom”

Peh Shing Huei, South China Morning Post: “Singapore election: why lots of parties will make little difference: Ten possible challengers may seem like a genuine threat to the ruling People’s Action Party, but it is a sign of a lack of a coherent and centralised strategy”

Malaysia Local Elections – TBD
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy

In last year’s parliamentary elections, Mahathir Mohamed led his Pakatan Haratan (Alliance of Hope) party to a surprise victory over the Barisan Nasional coalition and its primary member, United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which had been in power since Malaysia’s 1957 independence. In 1976, the government abolished local elections and instituted the practice of appointing the members of the country’s 146 local councils. Malaysia is currently debating whether to hold local elections.

Malaysiakini: “Reviving local gov’t polls: Ministry to present paper to cabinet by year-end”

Tunki Zain Al-‘Abidin, The Star: “With the Bill to lower the voting age to 18, hopefully other electoral reforms like electing senators, restoring local elections and making the Election Commission more powerful yet accountable can follow.”

The Star: “Umno: Local council polls will divide nation….[Unmo deputy president Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan] said having local council elections might seem democratic, but it was not the only answer to problems faced by local councils now.”

Kua Kia Soong, Malaysiakini: “Only elected councils can prevent environmental scandals”

Bernama, Malaysiakini: “The Paroi New Village head election today, the first time such an election was held in Negeri Sembilan, saw a voter turnout of 41.39 percent or 339 out of the 821 eligible voters in the area. Using the general election voting approach, the village head election started at 9am and ended at 3pm, with Chong Hoong Ming garnering 226 votes, defeating his opponent, Farm Li Ping who obtained 113 votes.”

Tashny Sukumaran and Bhavan Jaipragas, South China Morning Post: “Mahathir Mohamad turns 94 and has a new goal to reunite Malays. But what for?”

Past Elections
Philippines Legislative – May 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Brendan Cole, Newsweek: “Human rights lawyer Amal Clooney will defend Philippines journalist Maria Ressa who faces a number of charges her legal team say are designed to muzzle press freedom. Ressa is the co-founder and editor of the online news website Rappler, which has covered human rights abuses carried out under Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte.”

Rob Picheta, CNN: “Duterte critic Maria Ressa says attacks on press freedom come from all sides”

 

The Year Ahead: Asia
Japan, provincial elections throughout the year; Japan legislative – half of upper house (July 21); Papua New Guinea local (July 20-25); Nauru legislative (August); IndiaMaharashtra and Haryana states (October); Tuvalu parliamentary (September 9); New Zealand local (October 12); Hong Kong local (November 24); Marshall Islands legislative (November); Kiribati legislative (December); Sri Lanka presidential (December 7); Taiwan presidential and legislative (January 11); Kiribati presidential (March); South Korea parliamentary (April 15); Niue parliamentary (May); Mongolia parliamentary (June)

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An Indian voter in Mumbai reads a Congress Party campaign pamphlet during the 2009 elections. Photo credit: Flickr/Al Jazeera English

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