January 10, 2023

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the greater Middle East and North Africa, usually posted on Tuesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

Lebanon’s parliament building. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Heretiq (CC BY-SA 2.5)

Ongoing Middle East Elections

Lebanon Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): Continuing

Hanna Davis, Axios (January 4, 2023): Lebanon starts the new year without a president

Upcoming Middle East Elections

Tunisia Legislative Runoffs: January 20, 2023

Ghaya Ben Mbarek, The National UAE (January 3, 2023): Tunisian opposition members to be questioned after terrorism allegations

AFP (January 3, 2023): Tunisia opposition says hit by politically motivated probes

Pakistan, Local Elections in Karachi and Hyderabad: January 15, 2023 and General Elections: By October 12, 2023 

Crisis24 (January 10, 2023): Pakistan: Protests possible into mid-January ahead of local government elections in Karachi and Hyderabad divisions slated to occur Jan. 15

Islamuddin Sajid, Anadolou Agency (January 10, 2023): Pakistan’s election authority issues arrest warrant for former premier: Election Commission of Pakistan orders Imran Khan, his close aides to appear on Jan. 17 in contempt case

Muhammad Bezinjo, The Diplomat (January 7, 2023): Pakistan’s Port City Gwadar in Chaos: The “crown jewel” of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is under an internet shutdown after a crackdown on protests.

Turkey General Elections; June 18, 2023

Tom Wheeldon, France24 (January 10, 2023): Sweden, Turkey not expected to back down in NATO accession tug of war

Bobby Ghosh, Bloomberg (January 9, 2023): The World’s Most Important Election in 2023 Will Be in Turkey

Shona Bhattacharyya, France24 (January 9, 2023 – video): Syrian refugees in Turkey: Politicians stoke tensions over migrants as election looms

Selcan Hacaoglu, Bloomberg (January 7, 2023): Erdogan Hints Turkey’s Election Could Come Earlier Than Scheduled

Sinan Tavsan, Nikkei Asia (January 7, 2023): Turkey says relations with China have soured over Uyghur issue: Ahead of elections, Ankara insists it won’t extradite anyone

Ayla Jean Yackley, Financial Times (January 5, 2023): Turkish court freezes opposition party’s campaign funds ahead of elections: Move is part of legal case that seeks to ban pro-Kurdish HDP for alleged terrorism links

Andrew Wilks, Al-Monitor (January 5, 2023): Turkey’s historic election could move up as Erdogan calculates: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is seeking a favorable vote schedule as he fights to extend his 20-year rule.

Anna Foster, BBC (January 5, 2023): Turkey freezes pro-Kurdish party funds before vote

Fulya Ozerkan, Times of Israel (January 5, 2023): Feuding hampers Turkish opposition’s efforts to unite against Erdogan: Despite recent gains, top 6 opposition heads failing to capitalize on veteran leader’s relative weakness, impeded by his stranglehold on media and courts

AFP (January 3, 2023): Turkey hosts Syria opposition after outreach to Assad

Erika Tarim, Radio Free Asia (January 3, 2023): Turkey won’t extradite Uyghurs to China, foreign minister says

Iraq Regional Elections: December 2023 (due)

Kurdistan24 (January 9, 2023): Kurds concerned about demographic change, voter registration in Kirkuk’s next provincial election

Jordan General Elections: November 2024 (due) 

Laith Alajlouni, Atlantic Council (January 4, 2023): Jordanians are protesting again. It’s time for economic and administrative reforms.

Algeria Presidential Election: December 2024 (due)

Algeria is Africa’s biggest exporter of natural gas. It applied to join the BRICS in November 2022.

Foreign Policy (January 11, 2023): How Algeria Became Indispensable: Riding an energy export boom, the North African country is flexing its economic and diplomatic muscle.

AFP (January 8, 2023): Algerian poet denies claims he will challenge president’s reelection bid

Madjid Zerrouky, Le Monde (January 6, 2023): Dalia Ghanem: ‘The Algerian regime never intended to democratize’

Libya Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: Overdue

Marita Kassis, Al-Monitor (January 6, 2023): Libya rivals agree to pursue ‘constitutional base’ for settlement

Palestinian Authority Presidential and Legislative Elections: Overdue

Al Shakaba (January 9, 2023): The Legacy of Mahmoud Abbas

Past Middle East Elections

Israel Snap Parliamentary Elections: November 1, 2022

Emily Rose, Reuters (January 10, 2023): Israeli president urges polarised politicians to ‘lower the temperature’

Anshel Pfeffer, Unherd (January 6, 2023): Netanyahu is sacrificing Israel’s myths: His new government is rewriting the nation’s story

Time of Israel (January 6, 2023): Lapid predicts internal squabbling, popular dissent will see government fall by 2024

Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen, U.S. Institute of Peace (January 5, 2023): What Does Israel’s New Government Mean for the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict? Nearly 30 years since Oslo, even rhetorical nods to the prospect of a two-state solution may be coming to an end.

Barak Ravid, Axios  (January 4, 2023): New Israeli foreign minister faces criticism after remarks on Russia, Lavrov call

Al-Monitor (January 4, 2023): First call between Turkish, Israeli FMs overshadowed by Ben-Gvir: Turkey’s foreign minister told his newly appointed Israeli counterpart that the Israeli security minister’s visit to the Jerusalem holy site was “unacceptable.”

CNN (January 4, 2023): Israel’s rightward shift leaves its new Arab allies in an awkward spot

Bahrain General Elections: November 12, 2022

Ali Noureddine, Fanack (January 4, 2023): Bahrain’s Opposition: The History of the Movement’s Dissolution

Iran Presidential Election: June 18, 2021

Nassim Khadem, ABC News Australia (January 7, 2023): Iran’s regime is cracking under protests, but a challenge remains to ensure the revolution isn’t ‘hijacked’

Dr. Javad Heiran-Nia, Manara Magazine (January 5, 2023): Iran’s Protests: The Role of Power and the Weakening of the Reform Movement

Shervin Malekzadeh, The American Prospect (January 4, 2023): Remastering the Past for the Present in Iran: The next revolution will be a remix, not a rupture.

Regional Analysis

Rawan Radwan, Arab News (January 9, 2023): Why Lebanon, Iraq and Jordan rank among the ‘world’s angriest countries’

Sam Halpern, Jerusalem Post (January 5, 2023): 84% of Arabs oppose their country’s diplomatic recognition of Israel – poll: Perhaps unsurprisingly, the overwhelming majority of Arab citizens from over a dozen nations responded that they would oppose the recognition of Israel.

Middle East Elections Coming Up in 2023

Turkey and Pakistan are due to hold elections that determine who runs the government. In addition, long-overdue elections in the Palestinian Authority and Libya could take place in 2023, but don’t hold your breath.

Pakistan, Local Elections in Karachi and Hyderabad: January 15, 2023

Tunisia Legislative Runoffs: January 20, 2023

Lebanon Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): continues in January 2023

Lebanon Local Elections: May 2023 (due)

Tunisia Local Elections: May 2023 (due)

Turkey Presidential and Legislative Elections: June 18, 2023

Kurdistan (Iraq) Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: September 2023 (due – delayed from 2022)

Pakistan General Elections: October 12, 2023 (due – snap elections possible)

Israel Local Elections: October 2023 (due)

Oman Consultative Assembly Elections (advisory body with limited power): October 2023 (due)

United Arab Emirates Federal National Council Elections (indirect elections, advisory body with limited powers): October 2023 (due)

Iraq Regional Elections: December 2023 (due)

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