Upcoming Elections
Germany State Elections – September 1, 2019 (Saxony and Brandenburg) and October 27, 2019 (Thuringia)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Germany has a federal system with 16 Länder (states) that each have their own constitution, parliament (Landtag) and state government. The states have autonomy over internal policy, but do not have their own tax authority, and political parties are quite centralized at the federal level. Three states in the east hold elections this year: Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia. Brandenburg is currently governed by a coalition of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the populist Left (die Linke). Saxony has a grand coalition of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD). The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to do well in all three state elections in the east this year. AfD won the most votes in Brandenburg in the European Parliament elections this year. It beat CDU in Saxony, and came close in Thuringia.
However, AfD did not succeed in winning its first mayoral contest. In a closely-watched mayoral election in Görlitz (nicknamed Görliwood because many films have been shot there), in Saxony, when CDU, the Greens, and SPD teamed up to defeat the AfD candidate in the runoff.
Noah Barkin, The Atlantic: “Germany’s Future Is Being Decided on the Left, Not the Far Right: In the past, the Greens were happy if they scraped into regional assemblies in eastern Germany. Now the party is luring voters keen to stop the far right.”
Jörn Fleck and Alex Pieter, Foreign Policy: “Germany’s Far-Right Is Creeping Ever Closer to Power: Extremists will triumph in this weekend’s regional elections—and Angela Merkel’s party is starting to see their appeal.”
Updated August 30, 2019
Joshua Posaner, Politico: “A battle royale in Berlin’s periphery could determine the course of Germany’s increasingly fragmented politics. A regional vote on Sunday in Brandenburg — a forested, lake-filled state of 2.5 million encircling Berlin — offers a microcosm of Germany’s splintered party system, where the post-reunification dynamics of two parties ruling the political landscape are fast disappearing.”
Norway Local – September 9, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
In Norway’s 2015 local elections, the center-left Labour Party won the most votes – 33 percent – and the center-right Conservatives lost control of Oslo and Bergen. Norway has a lot of political parties with a wide variety of ideologies. Labour and the Conservatives (who have governed the country since 2013, but have been in coalition with the Progress Party since 2017) are the largest.
Environmental and transportation issues are playing a major role in the debate ahead of these elections, where voters will choose mayors and municipal and county councils throughout Norway. Not all ideas supported by the environmental movement are popular – controversial road tolls have sparked vigorous political debate and threatened to collapse Prime Minister Erna Solberg’s government because her coalition partner, the Progress Party – which some call a populist party with a libertarian bent and others call a libertarian party with a populist bent – opposes them.
David Nikel, Forbes: “Flygskam: No Sign Of Sweden’s Plane Shame In Norway….Norway’s Centre Party are going into the September local elections as one of the few voices pushing to make flying cheaper. Leader Trygve Slagsvold Vedum said it’s his party’s goal to reduce emissions from aviation by introducing more environmentally-friendly aircraft, fuel and other technologies, but that services should not be cut in the meantime.”
Updated August 30, 2019
Jason Deegan (blog): “Bompenger explained to Non-Norwegians: You can rarely read much Norwegian media without encountering the overwhelming dominance of Bompenger in coverage of the upcoming elections. It seems that several issues in Norway involve in some way the issue of Bompenger, and given the upcoming local elections scheduled for the 9th of September 2019, the problem is gaining even further significance.
Austria Snap Parliamentary – September 29, 2019 Vorarlberg State – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Austria’s government fell in a no-confidence vote – the first in Austria’s history – in May following the “Ibiza-gate” scandal involving the far-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), which had been part of the coalition headed by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz of the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache was filmed on the Spanish island of Ibiza offering state contracts in exchange for money to a woman who claimed to be the niece of a Russian oligarch. New elections will take place in September.
AFP: “As Austria prepares for snap elections what actually happened with the ‘Ibiza video’?”
Kosovo Snap Parliamentary – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Kosovo will hold snap elections on October 6 following the resignation of Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj after he was summoned to The Hague about potential war crimes. Haradinaj, who had previously been acquitted for war crimes – became prime minister in snap elections in June 2017 following a no-confidence motion.
Kosovo – which is 90 percent ethnic Albanian – was formerly part of Serbia, and for a long time enjoyed a degree of autonomy. However, in 1999, in the context of the breakup of Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic became president of Serbia and centralized control of Kosovo. This kicked off a bloody war between Serbian forces and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). NATO intervened with airstrikes and Kosovo was placed under UN administration. On February 17, 2008, Kosovo declared independence, and the United States recognized the country on February 18. Other countries followed suit, and even though some countries continue to view Kosovo as a breakaway province of Serbia, many analysts believe that independence is an irreversible fact.
Kosovo has a number of political parties that compete in elections – many grew out of KLA networks or were founded by prominent KLA commanders. Personalities play a large role in the political parties – perhaps a bigger role than ideology, although many of the parties do have broadly-stated ideologies. Kosovo has a record of holding elections that are generally credible despite some concerns. Some violent incidents still occur.
Reuters: “Kosovo president sets Oct. 6 as date for snap parliamentary vote”
Prishtina Insight: “Candidates for prime minister confirmed as election date is set”
Poland Parliamentary – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.
Reuters: “Poland’s ruling party has 41% support before October vote: Indicator….Poland’s ruling nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party still enjoys the highest support out of any grouping ahead of parliamentary elections in October, according to a poll released on Tuesday.”
Tim Hume, Vice: “Poland’s Populist Government Has Declared War on the LGBTQ Community: ’People who look stereotypically queer or gay are being attacked on the street for this, almost every day.’”
Marcin Goclowski and Joanna Plucinska, Reuters: “Poland’s government approved a plan on Tuesday to eliminate its budget deficit for the first time since 1990, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said, a move that could help bolster public support for its ambitious social spending plans ahead of a national election on October 13.
Hungary Local – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free this year) – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian. Nonetheless, the party has been on a winning streak. In the April 2018 parliamentary elections, Fidesz won a third supermajority, and the party won 52 percent of the vote in this year’s European Parliament elections. While the party has historically been a member of the center-right European People’s Party, it has in recent years become populist and nationalist, but with left-wing economic policies. Orbán has pushed the idea of “illiberal democracy.” The local elections will not change the national government, but if the opposition can unite and put in a strong showing, it will reduce Fidesz’s stranglehold on the country’s politics.
In June 2019, the Hungarian opposition united to hold the country’s first-ever formal primary to choose a candidate for mayor of Budapest. Sociologist Gergely Karácsony will take on incumbent István Tarlós, who is backed by Orban. However, opposition parties are divided on whether to back Karácsony or run their own candidates.
Hungary Today: “Local Elections Campaign Officially Gets Under Way”
The Economist: “How Viktor Orban hollowed out Hungary’s democracy. His achievements are bad for Hungarian liberty—and an object lesson in what is possible for would-be autocrats elsewhere.”
Switzerland Parliamentary – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Republic (formally a confederation)
The right-wing populist Swiss People’s Party won by a landslide in Switzerland’s last elections, in 2015, but the government is an ideologically-diverse coalition of the four largest parties in parliament.
Samuel Jaberg, SwissInfo: “A top Council of Europe anti-corruption official has called on Switzerland to strengthen laws on transparency of political financing in the lead up to the October 20 parliamentary elections.”
Le News: “A majority of the candidates putting themselves forward for election as federal parliamentarians on 20 October 2019 favour raising Switzerland’s retirement age to 67, according to a survey done by Smartvote and reported in the newspaper NZZ am Sonntag.”
Bulgaria Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
In the European elections in May, both the governing center-right GERB party and the main opposition Socialist Party ran on a pro-European platform, despite some members of both parties wanting to take a more Eurosceptic tone. As a result, GERB won, followed by the Socialists. The Volya party, which partners with Marine Le Pen in the European Parliament, did not win any seats. However, turnout was very low – 30 percent. Bulgaria is beginning to emerge from a long stretch of chaotic politics characterized by a series of early elections and caretaker governments, but a number of problems remain.
Sofia Globe: “Repeating a move made in Bulgaria’s May 2019 European Parliament elections, Prime Minister and GERB party leader Boiko Borissov signed on August 27 an alliance with the extra-parliamentary Union of Democratic Forces for the autumn mayoral and municipal elections.”
Romania Presidential – November 10, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Since communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu fell in 1989, Romania has become a free democracy but politics are volatile – the office of the prime minister has changed hands eight times since 2014. Corruption and weak rule of law remain serious problems. Liviu Dragnea, head of the governing left-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD), is currently in prison for abuse of power. PSD only got 23 percent of votes in the May 2019 European Parliament election, half of the support it had in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The 2014 presidential elections handed a surprise victory to Klaus Iohannis, the center-right mayor of Sibiu in Transylvania, who defeated then-Prime Minister Victor Ponta in the runoff. Iohannis plans to run for a second term.
Al Jazeera: “Romania government hanging by thread as coalition ally pulls out: Viorica Dancila’s Social Democrats [PSD]-led government loses majority after junior coalition partner ALDE withdraws backing.”
Euractiv/AFP: “Romania’s Prime Minister Viorica Dăncilă vowed Tuesday (27 August) her Social Democratic party would not lose power despite being abandoned by their coalition partner and facing an opposition no-confidence vote.”
Anca Gurzu, Politico: “The breakup of the ruling coalition comes on the heels of a tumultuous time in Romanian politics. For the past year, Dăncilă’s government has faced protests and international condemnation over concerns that the country is backsliding on rule of law and combatting corruption.”
Updated August 30, 2019
Sorin Melenciuc, Business Review (Romania): “Presidential elections poll: Klaus Iohannis gains solid lead over his competitors, USR leader Dan Barna advances in the second place”
Slovakia Parliamentary – March 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Slovakia’s politics could be headed for a change following the murder a year ago of journalist Jan Kuciak, who was investigating the ties between the ruling left-wing populist Smer-SD party and organized crime. In June 2019, Zuzana Čaputová, a co-founder of the liberal pro-European Progressive Slovakia (established in 2017 and thus not yet represented in parliament), defeated her populist-backed opponent by a landslide to become Slovakia’s first female president. She ran on a platform of anti-corruption and stemming the rising tide of populism and nationalism. Former president Andrej Kiska in June 2019 launched a new political party to take on the ruling left-wing populist Smer-SD (Direction Social Democracy), which holds 48 seats in parliament and governs in coalition with the right-wing populist Slovak National Party (SNS) and center-right Most–Híd (Bridge). Kiska’s new party is projected to enter parliament.
Miroslava Germanova, Balkan Insight: “‘Mafia State’ Slovakia struggles to root out corruption. Slovaks know only too well how corruption undermines the rule of law — but fixing the problem is another matter.”
Updated August 30, 2019
Rob Cameron, DW: “A controversial political leader of the 1990s is planning a political comeback. Slovakia’s prime minister Vladimir Meciar was elected, and brought down, three times between 1994 and 1998, overseeing a period so tainted by violations of the rule of law that the country’s bid to join NATO and the EU was put on ice.”
Serbia Parliamentary – Due April 2020 (snap possible) and Presidential (due 2022, snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free in 2019) – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Serbia’s last snap parliamentary elections, in April 2016, resulted in a renewed majority for Prime Minister Alexander Vucic’s nationalist Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). Serbia has tried to balance movement toward joining the European Union with maintaining good relations with Russia.
European Western Balkans: “Leader of the opposition ‘Free Citizens Movement’ (PSG) Sergej Trifunović, wrote an open letter to the Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the European Parliament and outgoing Rapporteur for Serbia David McAllister yesterday, ahead of his visit to the country, asking him to consider facilitating a cross-party dialogue so that the 2020 parliamentary election can take place without opposition’s boycott.”
Snezana Bjelotomic, Serbian Monitor: “Abstentions are the second largest political group in Serbia”
Czech Republic Parliamentary – by October 2021 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Tim Gosling, World Politics Review: “The Czech Government Avoided Collapse by Surrendering to a ‘Presidential Coup’
Italy General – Due by May 2023 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Italy’s 2018 general elections resulted in a hung parliament. Two very different populist parties – the nationalist, anti-immigrant Lega (League – formerly the Northern League), and the Five Star Movement, founded by comedian Beppe Grillo – formed a contentiouscoalition, and there have been constant rumors that the coalition would collapse and spark snap elections.
Chico Harlan and Stefano Pitrell, Washington Post: “Italian Premier Giuseppe Conte wins backing to form a new government — this time, without the far right: After weeks of shifting alliances and political jockeying, Italy is close to minting a new governing coalition: a union of two long-adversarial parties aligned in their aim to thwart the far right’s rise to power.”
Chris Baynes, The Independent: “Centre-left Democrats drop opposition to reinstating Giuseppe Conte as prime minister in move which clears way for alliance with 5-Star Movement”
Rachel Donadio, The Atlantic: “Italy’s Transition From One Weak Government to Another: The pact between the populist Five Star Movement and the center-left Democratic Party, engineered to keep Matteo Salvini from power, may have its days numbered.”
Updated August 30, 2019
Matt Clinch, CNBC: “Italy’s Di Maio warns snap elections could still happen as he gives opposition PD party an ultimatum: Luigi Di Maio, the leader of Italy’s Five Star Movement (M5S), is taking a tough stance with his proposed new coalition partners in Rome, saying the Democratic Party (PD) needs to accept a string of policy demands to fulfill a power-sharing agreement.”
Angela Giuffrida, The Guardian: “Salvini urges far-right supporters to march on Rome after bid to force election backfires. Interior minister calls for ‘day of mobilisation’ in protest at moves to sideline League.”
Chico Harlan, Washington Post: “He was Europe’s fastest rising politician. Now, Italy’s far-right leader faces an uncertain future.”
Mattia Ferraresi, Foreign Policy: “Italy’s Great Schism: Italian Catholics are deeply divided between traditionalists and supporters of Pope Francis’s liberal vision. Matteo Salvini is seeking to give the Vatican’s detractors a new political home.”
United Kingdom General – Due by May 5, 2022 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth Realm)
The Conservatives won a majority in the the 2015 elections, allowing them to form a government on their own (they had defeated the incumbent Labour in the 2010 elections, but did not have a majority and had to form a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats). The Conservatives had promised to hold a referendum on leaving the European Union (Brexit), and the highly polarized vote delivered a win for the Brexiteers.
Following the result of the referendum, Cameron resigned as prime minister, and former Home Minister Teresa May won the subsequent Conservative Party leadership contest and became prime minister. May called for a new general election, but the gamble failed and the Conservatives lost their majority. They were able to form a government backed by a confidence-and-supply deal with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, a situation that significantly hindered the government’s ability to negotiate an exit. Following pressure, May resigned, and firebrand Brexiteer Boris Johnson won the leadership contest and became Prime Minister. Johnson has committed to delivering Brexit by October 31, 2019, with or without a deal. However, many MPs oppose leaving without a deal, creating a climate of tension and uncertainty in British politics.
Ian Bremmer, Time: “British Prime Minister Boris Johnson Has Suspended the U.K.’s Parliament. What Happens Next?: On Wednesday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson moved to suspend the U.K.’s Parliament shortly after lawmakers return from their summer recess in early September. Queen Elizabeth has approved the request for a suspension, though royal assent is largely considered a formality.”
Past Elections
Denmark Parliamentary – June 5, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Michael Barrett, The Local: “What is going on with Denmark’s Liberal Party? The Liberal (Venstre) Party, the senior partner in the former coalition government which lost June’s general election, is currently mired in manoeuvring and discord over potential new leadership.”
Bosnia and Herzegovina General – October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Danijel Kovacevic, Balkan Insight: “Bosnia Fails Again to Form New State Government: Another attempt by Bosnia’s tripartite presidency to break the country’s long-running political deadlock and form a new state-level government, ten months after the last election, has failed.”
Europe This Week – August 28, 2019
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Last Updated: September 9, 2019 by 21votes
August 28, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Europe on Wednesdays. Click the map pins.
Germany State Elections – September 1, 2019 (Saxony and Brandenburg) and October 27, 2019 (Thuringia)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Germany has a federal system with 16 Länder (states) that each have their own constitution, parliament (Landtag) and state government. The states have autonomy over internal policy, but do not have their own tax authority, and political parties are quite centralized at the federal level. Three states in the east hold elections this year: Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia. Brandenburg is currently governed by a coalition of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the populist Left (die Linke). Saxony has a grand coalition of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD). The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to do well in all three state elections in the east this year. AfD won the most votes in Brandenburg in the European Parliament elections this year. It beat CDU in Saxony, and came close in Thuringia.
However, AfD did not succeed in winning its first mayoral contest. In a closely-watched mayoral election in Görlitz (nicknamed Görliwood because many films have been shot there), in Saxony, when CDU, the Greens, and SPD teamed up to defeat the AfD candidate in the runoff.
Norway Local – September 9, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
In Norway’s 2015 local elections, the center-left Labour Party won the most votes – 33 percent – and the center-right Conservatives lost control of Oslo and Bergen. Norway has a lot of political parties with a wide variety of ideologies. Labour and the Conservatives (who have governed the country since 2013, but have been in coalition with the Progress Party since 2017) are the largest.
Environmental and transportation issues are playing a major role in the debate ahead of these elections, where voters will choose mayors and municipal and county councils throughout Norway. Not all ideas supported by the environmental movement are popular – controversial road tolls have sparked vigorous political debate and threatened to collapse Prime Minister Erna Solberg’s government because her coalition partner, the Progress Party – which some call a populist party with a libertarian bent and others call a libertarian party with a populist bent – opposes them.
Austria Snap Parliamentary – September 29, 2019 Vorarlberg State – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Austria’s government fell in a no-confidence vote – the first in Austria’s history – in May following the “Ibiza-gate” scandal involving the far-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), which had been part of the coalition headed by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz of the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache was filmed on the Spanish island of Ibiza offering state contracts in exchange for money to a woman who claimed to be the niece of a Russian oligarch. New elections will take place in September.
Kosovo Snap Parliamentary - October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Kosovo will hold snap elections on October 6 following the resignation of Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj after he was summoned to The Hague about potential war crimes. Haradinaj, who had previously been acquitted for war crimes – became prime minister in snap elections in June 2017 following a no-confidence motion.
Kosovo – which is 90 percent ethnic Albanian – was formerly part of Serbia, and for a long time enjoyed a degree of autonomy. However, in 1999, in the context of the breakup of Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic became president of Serbia and centralized control of Kosovo. This kicked off a bloody war between Serbian forces and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). NATO intervened with airstrikes and Kosovo was placed under UN administration. On February 17, 2008, Kosovo declared independence, and the United States recognized the country on February 18. Other countries followed suit, and even though some countries continue to view Kosovo as a breakaway province of Serbia, many analysts believe that independence is an irreversible fact.
Kosovo has a number of political parties that compete in elections – many grew out of KLA networks or were founded by prominent KLA commanders. Personalities play a large role in the political parties – perhaps a bigger role than ideology, although many of the parties do have broadly-stated ideologies. Kosovo has a record of holding elections that are generally credible despite some concerns. Some violent incidents still occur.
Poland Parliamentary – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.
Bulgaria Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
In the European elections in May, both the governing center-right GERB party and the main opposition Socialist Party ran on a pro-European platform, despite some members of both parties wanting to take a more Eurosceptic tone. As a result, GERB won, followed by the Socialists. The Volya party, which partners with Marine Le Pen in the European Parliament, did not win any seats. However, turnout was very low – 30 percent. Bulgaria is beginning to emerge from a long stretch of chaotic politicscharacterized by a series of early elections and caretaker governments, but a number of problems remain.
Hungary Local – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free this year) – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian. Nonetheless, the party has been on a winning streak. In the April 2018 parliamentary elections, Fidesz won a third supermajority, and the party won 52 percent of the vote in this year’s European Parliament elections. While the party has historically been a member of the center-right European People’s Party, it has in recent years become populist and nationalist, but with left-wing economic policies. Orbán has pushed the idea of “illiberal democracy.” The local elections will not change the national government, but if the opposition can unite and put in a strong showing, it will reduce Fidesz’s stranglehold on the country’s politics.
In June 2019, the Hungarian opposition united to hold the country’s first-ever formal primary to choose a candidate for mayor of Budapest. Sociologist Gergely Karácsony will take on incumbent István Tarlós, who is backed by Orban. However, opposition parties are divided on whether to back Karácsony or run their own candidates.
Switzerland Parliamentary – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Republic (formally a confederation)
The right-wing populist Swiss People’s Party won by a landslide in Switzerland’s last elections, in 2015, but the government is an ideologically-diverse coalition of the four largest parties in parliament.
Romania Presidential – November 10, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Since communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu fell in 1989, Romania has become a free democracy but politics are volatile – the office of the prime minister has changed hands eight times since 2014. Corruption and weak rule of law remain serious problems. Liviu Dragnea, head of the governing left-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD), is currently in prison for abuse of power. PSD only got 23 percent of votes in the May 2019 European Parliament election, half of the support it had in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The 2014 presidential elections handed a surprise victory to Klaus Iohannis, the center-right mayor of Sibiu in Transylvania, who defeated then-Prime Minister Victor Ponta in the runoff. Iohannis plans to run for a second term.
Slovakia Parliamentary – March 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Slovakia’s politics could be headed for a change following the murder a year ago of journalist Jan Kuciak, who was investigating the ties between the ruling left-wing populist Smer-SD party and organized crime. In June 2019, Zuzana Čaputová, a co-founder of the liberal pro-European Progressive Slovakia (established in 2017 and thus not yet represented in parliament), defeated her populist-backed opponent by a landslide to become Slovakia’s first female president. She ran on a platform of anti-corruption and stemming the rising tide of populism and nationalism. Former president Andrej Kiska in June 2019 launched a new political party to take on the ruling left-wing populist Smer-SD (Direction Social Democracy), which holds 48 seats in parliament and governs in coalition with the right-wing populist Slovak National Party (SNS) and center-right Most–Híd (Bridge). Kiska’s new party is projected to enter parliament.
Serbia Parliamentary – Due April 2020 (snap possible) and Presidential (due 2022, snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free in 2019) – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Serbia’s last snap parliamentary elections, in April 2016, resulted in a renewed majority for Prime Minister Alexander Vucic’s nationalist Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). Serbia has tried to balance movement toward joining the European Union with maintaining good relations with Russia.
Czech Republic Parliamentary – by October 2021 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Italy General – Due by May 2023 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Italy’s 2018 general elections resulted in a hung parliament. Two very different populist parties – the nationalist, anti-immigrant Lega (League – formerly the Northern League), and the Five Star Movement, founded by comedian Beppe Grillo – formed a contentious coalition, and there have been constant rumors that the coalition would collapse and spark snap elections.
United Kingdom General – Due by May 5, 2022 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth Realm)
The Conservatives won a majority in the the 2015 elections, allowing them to form a government on their own (they had defeated the incumbent Labour in the 2010 elections, but did not have a majority and had to form a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats). The Conservatives had promised to hold a referendum on leaving the European Union (Brexit), and the highly polarized vote delivered a win for the Brexiteers.
Following the result of the referendum, Cameron resigned as prime minister, and former Home Minister Teresa May won the subsequent Conservative Party leadership contest and became prime minister. May called for a new general election, but the gamble failed and the Conservatives lost their majority. They were able to form a government backed by a confidence-and-supply deal with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, a situation that significantly hindered the government’s ability to negotiate an exit. Following pressure, May resigned, and firebrand Brexiteer Boris Johnson won the leadership contest and became Prime Minister. Johnson has committed to delivering Brexit by October 31, 2019, with or without a deal. However, many MPs oppose leaving without a deal, creating a climate of tension and uncertainty in British politics.
Denmark Parliamentary – June 5, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Bosnia and Herzegovina General – October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Upcoming Elections
Germany State Elections – September 1, 2019 (Saxony and Brandenburg) and October 27, 2019 (Thuringia)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Germany has a federal system with 16 Länder (states) that each have their own constitution, parliament (Landtag) and state government. The states have autonomy over internal policy, but do not have their own tax authority, and political parties are quite centralized at the federal level. Three states in the east hold elections this year: Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia. Brandenburg is currently governed by a coalition of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the populist Left (die Linke). Saxony has a grand coalition of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD). The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to do well in all three state elections in the east this year. AfD won the most votes in Brandenburg in the European Parliament elections this year. It beat CDU in Saxony, and came close in Thuringia.
However, AfD did not succeed in winning its first mayoral contest. In a closely-watched mayoral election in Görlitz (nicknamed Görliwood because many films have been shot there), in Saxony, when CDU, the Greens, and SPD teamed up to defeat the AfD candidate in the runoff.
Noah Barkin, The Atlantic: “Germany’s Future Is Being Decided on the Left, Not the Far Right: In the past, the Greens were happy if they scraped into regional assemblies in eastern Germany. Now the party is luring voters keen to stop the far right.”
Jörn Fleck and Alex Pieter, Foreign Policy: “Germany’s Far-Right Is Creeping Ever Closer to Power: Extremists will triumph in this weekend’s regional elections—and Angela Merkel’s party is starting to see their appeal.”
Updated August 30, 2019
Joshua Posaner, Politico: “A battle royale in Berlin’s periphery could determine the course of Germany’s increasingly fragmented politics. A regional vote on Sunday in Brandenburg — a forested, lake-filled state of 2.5 million encircling Berlin — offers a microcosm of Germany’s splintered party system, where the post-reunification dynamics of two parties ruling the political landscape are fast disappearing.”
Norway Local – September 9, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
In Norway’s 2015 local elections, the center-left Labour Party won the most votes – 33 percent – and the center-right Conservatives lost control of Oslo and Bergen. Norway has a lot of political parties with a wide variety of ideologies. Labour and the Conservatives (who have governed the country since 2013, but have been in coalition with the Progress Party since 2017) are the largest.
Environmental and transportation issues are playing a major role in the debate ahead of these elections, where voters will choose mayors and municipal and county councils throughout Norway. Not all ideas supported by the environmental movement are popular – controversial road tolls have sparked vigorous political debate and threatened to collapse Prime Minister Erna Solberg’s government because her coalition partner, the Progress Party – which some call a populist party with a libertarian bent and others call a libertarian party with a populist bent – opposes them.
David Nikel, Forbes: “Flygskam: No Sign Of Sweden’s Plane Shame In Norway….Norway’s Centre Party are going into the September local elections as one of the few voices pushing to make flying cheaper. Leader Trygve Slagsvold Vedum said it’s his party’s goal to reduce emissions from aviation by introducing more environmentally-friendly aircraft, fuel and other technologies, but that services should not be cut in the meantime.”
Updated August 30, 2019
Jason Deegan (blog): “Bompenger explained to Non-Norwegians: You can rarely read much Norwegian media without encountering the overwhelming dominance of Bompenger in coverage of the upcoming elections. It seems that several issues in Norway involve in some way the issue of Bompenger, and given the upcoming local elections scheduled for the 9th of September 2019, the problem is gaining even further significance.
Austria Snap Parliamentary – September 29, 2019 Vorarlberg State – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Austria’s government fell in a no-confidence vote – the first in Austria’s history – in May following the “Ibiza-gate” scandal involving the far-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), which had been part of the coalition headed by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz of the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache was filmed on the Spanish island of Ibiza offering state contracts in exchange for money to a woman who claimed to be the niece of a Russian oligarch. New elections will take place in September.
AFP: “As Austria prepares for snap elections what actually happened with the ‘Ibiza video’?”
Kosovo Snap Parliamentary – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Kosovo will hold snap elections on October 6 following the resignation of Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj after he was summoned to The Hague about potential war crimes. Haradinaj, who had previously been acquitted for war crimes – became prime minister in snap elections in June 2017 following a no-confidence motion.
Kosovo – which is 90 percent ethnic Albanian – was formerly part of Serbia, and for a long time enjoyed a degree of autonomy. However, in 1999, in the context of the breakup of Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic became president of Serbia and centralized control of Kosovo. This kicked off a bloody war between Serbian forces and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). NATO intervened with airstrikes and Kosovo was placed under UN administration. On February 17, 2008, Kosovo declared independence, and the United States recognized the country on February 18. Other countries followed suit, and even though some countries continue to view Kosovo as a breakaway province of Serbia, many analysts believe that independence is an irreversible fact.
Kosovo has a number of political parties that compete in elections – many grew out of KLA networks or were founded by prominent KLA commanders. Personalities play a large role in the political parties – perhaps a bigger role than ideology, although many of the parties do have broadly-stated ideologies. Kosovo has a record of holding elections that are generally credible despite some concerns. Some violent incidents still occur.
Reuters: “Kosovo president sets Oct. 6 as date for snap parliamentary vote”
Prishtina Insight: “Candidates for prime minister confirmed as election date is set”
Poland Parliamentary – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.
Reuters: “Poland’s ruling party has 41% support before October vote: Indicator….Poland’s ruling nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party still enjoys the highest support out of any grouping ahead of parliamentary elections in October, according to a poll released on Tuesday.”
Tim Hume, Vice: “Poland’s Populist Government Has Declared War on the LGBTQ Community: ’People who look stereotypically queer or gay are being attacked on the street for this, almost every day.’”
Marcin Goclowski and Joanna Plucinska, Reuters: “Poland’s government approved a plan on Tuesday to eliminate its budget deficit for the first time since 1990, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said, a move that could help bolster public support for its ambitious social spending plans ahead of a national election on October 13.
Hungary Local – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free this year) – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian. Nonetheless, the party has been on a winning streak. In the April 2018 parliamentary elections, Fidesz won a third supermajority, and the party won 52 percent of the vote in this year’s European Parliament elections. While the party has historically been a member of the center-right European People’s Party, it has in recent years become populist and nationalist, but with left-wing economic policies. Orbán has pushed the idea of “illiberal democracy.” The local elections will not change the national government, but if the opposition can unite and put in a strong showing, it will reduce Fidesz’s stranglehold on the country’s politics.
In June 2019, the Hungarian opposition united to hold the country’s first-ever formal primary to choose a candidate for mayor of Budapest. Sociologist Gergely Karácsony will take on incumbent István Tarlós, who is backed by Orban. However, opposition parties are divided on whether to back Karácsony or run their own candidates.
Hungary Today: “Local Elections Campaign Officially Gets Under Way”
The Economist: “How Viktor Orban hollowed out Hungary’s democracy. His achievements are bad for Hungarian liberty—and an object lesson in what is possible for would-be autocrats elsewhere.”
Switzerland Parliamentary – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Republic (formally a confederation)
The right-wing populist Swiss People’s Party won by a landslide in Switzerland’s last elections, in 2015, but the government is an ideologically-diverse coalition of the four largest parties in parliament.
Samuel Jaberg, SwissInfo: “A top Council of Europe anti-corruption official has called on Switzerland to strengthen laws on transparency of political financing in the lead up to the October 20 parliamentary elections.”
Le News: “A majority of the candidates putting themselves forward for election as federal parliamentarians on 20 October 2019 favour raising Switzerland’s retirement age to 67, according to a survey done by Smartvote and reported in the newspaper NZZ am Sonntag.”
Bulgaria Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
In the European elections in May, both the governing center-right GERB party and the main opposition Socialist Party ran on a pro-European platform, despite some members of both parties wanting to take a more Eurosceptic tone. As a result, GERB won, followed by the Socialists. The Volya party, which partners with Marine Le Pen in the European Parliament, did not win any seats. However, turnout was very low – 30 percent. Bulgaria is beginning to emerge from a long stretch of chaotic politics characterized by a series of early elections and caretaker governments, but a number of problems remain.
Sofia Globe: “Repeating a move made in Bulgaria’s May 2019 European Parliament elections, Prime Minister and GERB party leader Boiko Borissov signed on August 27 an alliance with the extra-parliamentary Union of Democratic Forces for the autumn mayoral and municipal elections.”
Romania Presidential – November 10, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Since communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu fell in 1989, Romania has become a free democracy but politics are volatile – the office of the prime minister has changed hands eight times since 2014. Corruption and weak rule of law remain serious problems. Liviu Dragnea, head of the governing left-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD), is currently in prison for abuse of power. PSD only got 23 percent of votes in the May 2019 European Parliament election, half of the support it had in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The 2014 presidential elections handed a surprise victory to Klaus Iohannis, the center-right mayor of Sibiu in Transylvania, who defeated then-Prime Minister Victor Ponta in the runoff. Iohannis plans to run for a second term.
Al Jazeera: “Romania government hanging by thread as coalition ally pulls out: Viorica Dancila’s Social Democrats [PSD]-led government loses majority after junior coalition partner ALDE withdraws backing.”
Euractiv/AFP: “Romania’s Prime Minister Viorica Dăncilă vowed Tuesday (27 August) her Social Democratic party would not lose power despite being abandoned by their coalition partner and facing an opposition no-confidence vote.”
Anca Gurzu, Politico: “The breakup of the ruling coalition comes on the heels of a tumultuous time in Romanian politics. For the past year, Dăncilă’s government has faced protests and international condemnation over concerns that the country is backsliding on rule of law and combatting corruption.”
Updated August 30, 2019
Sorin Melenciuc, Business Review (Romania): “Presidential elections poll: Klaus Iohannis gains solid lead over his competitors, USR leader Dan Barna advances in the second place”
Slovakia Parliamentary – March 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Slovakia’s politics could be headed for a change following the murder a year ago of journalist Jan Kuciak, who was investigating the ties between the ruling left-wing populist Smer-SD party and organized crime. In June 2019, Zuzana Čaputová, a co-founder of the liberal pro-European Progressive Slovakia (established in 2017 and thus not yet represented in parliament), defeated her populist-backed opponent by a landslide to become Slovakia’s first female president. She ran on a platform of anti-corruption and stemming the rising tide of populism and nationalism. Former president Andrej Kiska in June 2019 launched a new political party to take on the ruling left-wing populist Smer-SD (Direction Social Democracy), which holds 48 seats in parliament and governs in coalition with the right-wing populist Slovak National Party (SNS) and center-right Most–Híd (Bridge). Kiska’s new party is projected to enter parliament.
Miroslava Germanova, Balkan Insight: “‘Mafia State’ Slovakia struggles to root out corruption. Slovaks know only too well how corruption undermines the rule of law — but fixing the problem is another matter.”
Updated August 30, 2019
Rob Cameron, DW: “A controversial political leader of the 1990s is planning a political comeback. Slovakia’s prime minister Vladimir Meciar was elected, and brought down, three times between 1994 and 1998, overseeing a period so tainted by violations of the rule of law that the country’s bid to join NATO and the EU was put on ice.”
Serbia Parliamentary – Due April 2020 (snap possible) and Presidential (due 2022, snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free in 2019) – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Serbia’s last snap parliamentary elections, in April 2016, resulted in a renewed majority for Prime Minister Alexander Vucic’s nationalist Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). Serbia has tried to balance movement toward joining the European Union with maintaining good relations with Russia.
European Western Balkans: “Leader of the opposition ‘Free Citizens Movement’ (PSG) Sergej Trifunović, wrote an open letter to the Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the European Parliament and outgoing Rapporteur for Serbia David McAllister yesterday, ahead of his visit to the country, asking him to consider facilitating a cross-party dialogue so that the 2020 parliamentary election can take place without opposition’s boycott.”
Snezana Bjelotomic, Serbian Monitor: “Abstentions are the second largest political group in Serbia”
Czech Republic Parliamentary – by October 2021 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Tim Gosling, World Politics Review: “The Czech Government Avoided Collapse by Surrendering to a ‘Presidential Coup’
Italy General – Due by May 2023 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Italy’s 2018 general elections resulted in a hung parliament. Two very different populist parties – the nationalist, anti-immigrant Lega (League – formerly the Northern League), and the Five Star Movement, founded by comedian Beppe Grillo – formed a contentiouscoalition, and there have been constant rumors that the coalition would collapse and spark snap elections.
Chico Harlan and Stefano Pitrell, Washington Post: “Italian Premier Giuseppe Conte wins backing to form a new government — this time, without the far right: After weeks of shifting alliances and political jockeying, Italy is close to minting a new governing coalition: a union of two long-adversarial parties aligned in their aim to thwart the far right’s rise to power.”
Chris Baynes, The Independent: “Centre-left Democrats drop opposition to reinstating Giuseppe Conte as prime minister in move which clears way for alliance with 5-Star Movement”
Rachel Donadio, The Atlantic: “Italy’s Transition From One Weak Government to Another: The pact between the populist Five Star Movement and the center-left Democratic Party, engineered to keep Matteo Salvini from power, may have its days numbered.”
Updated August 30, 2019
Matt Clinch, CNBC: “Italy’s Di Maio warns snap elections could still happen as he gives opposition PD party an ultimatum: Luigi Di Maio, the leader of Italy’s Five Star Movement (M5S), is taking a tough stance with his proposed new coalition partners in Rome, saying the Democratic Party (PD) needs to accept a string of policy demands to fulfill a power-sharing agreement.”
Angela Giuffrida, The Guardian: “Salvini urges far-right supporters to march on Rome after bid to force election backfires. Interior minister calls for ‘day of mobilisation’ in protest at moves to sideline League.”
Chico Harlan, Washington Post: “He was Europe’s fastest rising politician. Now, Italy’s far-right leader faces an uncertain future.”
Mattia Ferraresi, Foreign Policy: “Italy’s Great Schism: Italian Catholics are deeply divided between traditionalists and supporters of Pope Francis’s liberal vision. Matteo Salvini is seeking to give the Vatican’s detractors a new political home.”
United Kingdom General – Due by May 5, 2022 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth Realm)
The Conservatives won a majority in the the 2015 elections, allowing them to form a government on their own (they had defeated the incumbent Labour in the 2010 elections, but did not have a majority and had to form a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats). The Conservatives had promised to hold a referendum on leaving the European Union (Brexit), and the highly polarized vote delivered a win for the Brexiteers.
Following the result of the referendum, Cameron resigned as prime minister, and former Home Minister Teresa May won the subsequent Conservative Party leadership contest and became prime minister. May called for a new general election, but the gamble failed and the Conservatives lost their majority. They were able to form a government backed by a confidence-and-supply deal with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, a situation that significantly hindered the government’s ability to negotiate an exit. Following pressure, May resigned, and firebrand Brexiteer Boris Johnson won the leadership contest and became Prime Minister. Johnson has committed to delivering Brexit by October 31, 2019, with or without a deal. However, many MPs oppose leaving without a deal, creating a climate of tension and uncertainty in British politics.
Ian Bremmer, Time: “British Prime Minister Boris Johnson Has Suspended the U.K.’s Parliament. What Happens Next?: On Wednesday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson moved to suspend the U.K.’s Parliament shortly after lawmakers return from their summer recess in early September. Queen Elizabeth has approved the request for a suspension, though royal assent is largely considered a formality.”
Past Elections
Denmark Parliamentary – June 5, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Michael Barrett, The Local: “What is going on with Denmark’s Liberal Party? The Liberal (Venstre) Party, the senior partner in the former coalition government which lost June’s general election, is currently mired in manoeuvring and discord over potential new leadership.”
Bosnia and Herzegovina General – October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Danijel Kovacevic, Balkan Insight: “Bosnia Fails Again to Form New State Government: Another attempt by Bosnia’s tripartite presidency to break the country’s long-running political deadlock and form a new state-level government, ten months after the last election, has failed.”
The Year Ahead: Europe
Germany, Brandenburg and Saxony states (September 1); Norway local (September 9); Portugal, Madeiran regional (September 22); Austria snap parliamentary (September 29); Finland Åland regional parliament and local (October); Portugal parliamentary (October 6); Kosovo snap parliamentary (October 6); Poland parliamentary (October 13); Hungary local (October 13); Austria Vorarlberg state (October 13); Switzerland Federal Assembly (October 20); Bulgaria local (October 27); Germany Thuringia state (October 27); Romania presidential (November 10); Croatia presidential (December); Slovakia parliamentary (March 2020); Serbia parliamentary, provincial, local (March or April 2020); Poland presidential (May 2020); Iceland presidential (June 2020)
The Bundestag, Germany’s national parliament in Berlin. The three upcoming state elections – in Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia – could have national political impact. Photo credit: Nicepik (CC0 – public domain)
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Category: This Week Tags: Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Kosovo, Norway, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Switzerland, United Kingdom