Eurasia This Week – August 29, 2019

August 29, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Eurasia on Thursdays. Click the map pins.

Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation

Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.

In last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.

This year, a number of genuine opposition figures seek to run for local office, but authorities are blocking their access to the ballot. In response, citizens are holding a series of protests, resulting in a harsh crackdown. The protests have shown a level of coordination among the opposition not seen since the 1990s.

Moldova Local – October 20, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.

The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.

Belarus Legislative – November 7 (upper house, indirect) and 17, 2019 (lower house, direct) and Presidential – August 30, 2020 (tentative)

Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)

Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.

Uzbekistan Parliamentary – December 22, 2019 (tentative)

Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic (highly authoritarian)

Elections in Uzbekistan are neither free nor fair, and political opposition is not able to operate in the country. Longtime dictator Islam Karimov, who oversaw the world’s worst massacre of protesters since Tiananmen and tortured dissidents (even boiling some of them to death), died in 2016. His successor, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, has showed some openness to reform, such as a move to end forced labor during the cotton harvest and the release of some – not all – political prisoners, but the country remains a consolidated autocracy. The Oliy Majlis, Uzbekistan’s bicameral parliament, has historically been passive, although Mirziyoyev has called for the body to take a more active role. However, the political space does not exist for legislators to hold the executive branch accountable, and none of the parties in the Oliy Majlis are genuinely opposition.

Georgia Parliamentary – October 2020

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

Georgia holds competitive but imperfect elections. The eccentric oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili runs the show from behind the scenes, despite holding no official office. Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakasvili’s pro-European, pro-NATO United National Movement. Ivanishvili’s candidate, Salome Zurabishvili, won last year’s disputed presidential election. Georgian Dream did well in by-elections in May.

In June, a series of protests broke out over Russia, which occupies 20 percent of Georgia’s territory. The government’s brutal response could harm the coalition ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.

Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary – October 2020

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Kyrgyzstan began a halting transition to democracy following the Tulip Revolution of 2005, and following another revolution in 2010, the country switched to a parliamentary system and presidents were restricted to one term in office, in an effort to curtail presidential power and authoritarian backsliding. The current president, Sooronbay Jeenbekov, was elected in 2017, leading to Kyrgyzstan’s first peaceful transfer of power between two elected presidents. Jeenbekov had been backed by his predecessor, Almazbek Atambayev, but relations between the two have since soured. Atambayev staged a series of protests. The political climate remains tense ahead of next year’s parliamentary polls.

Ukraine Snap Parliamentary – July 21, 2019 (following presidential elections earlier this year)

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

Actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate largely centers on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.

Zelensky’s Servant of the People party previously did not have any seats in the Rada, but swept the elections to win an unprecedented parliamentary majority. More than half of the MPs are new.

Kazakhstan Snap Presidential – June 9, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Longtime strongman Nursultan Nazerbayev, who ruled Kazakhstan since independence in 1991, surprised everyone by stepping down and calling a snap presidential election. Unsurprisingly, his chosen successor, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, won in a tightly-managed election that observers judged not free and not fair. In the days surrounding the election, over 1,000 people were arrested for peacefully protesting. No real opposition exists within Kazakhstan, but some think that the seeds of a civic awakening are being planted.

Armenia Snap Parliamentary – December 9, 2018

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy

On December 9, Armenia’s snap parliamentary elections officially elected former MP and journalist Nikol Pashinyan as prime minister. The snap elections followed a series of protests that led to the resignation of Serzh Sargsyan, Armenia’s former president who became prime minister in an attempt to remain in power when faced with term limits. This has been dubbed Armenia’s “Velvet Revolution.” The Economist named Armenia country of the year for 2018.

Nagorno-Karabakh (called Artsakh in Armenian), a breakaway region of Azerbaijan that is mostly ethnic Armenian, will hold local elections on September 8 2019 and presidential and parliamentary elections in March 2020. Local politicians frequently advocate for the region’s independence. Armenia stops short of endorsing independence (and officially claims the region), but it does provide military, financial, and political support. The region remains a frozen conflict.

Upcoming Elections
Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: 
Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation

Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.

In last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.

This year, a number of genuine opposition figures seek to run for local office, but authorities are blocking their access to the ballot. In response, citizens are holding a series of protests, resulting in a harsh crackdown. The protests have shown a level of coordination among the opposition not seen since the 1990s.

Gulliver Cragg and Elena Volochine, France24: “Ahead of Russia’s local elections, a summer of repression: In Russia, local elections are set to take place on September 8, but most opposition candidates have been barred from running. As a result, large and peaceful demonstrations took place this summer in Moscow to demand free elections.”

Maria Danilova, The Atlantic: “‘You Cannot Forbid Love’: A Kremlin Critic’s Struggle: Lyubov Sobol has been an anti-corruption activist for years. Now, she is trying to win a seat on Moscow’s city council.”

Nathan Hodge, CNN: “Putin tried to smash the opposition. Instead protests have spiraled”

Updated August 31, 2019

Reuters: “A few thousand Russians took to the streets of central Moscow on Saturday to demand free elections to the capital’s city legislature on Sept. 8, defying a ban which has been enforced with violent detentions during previous protests.”

Natalia Smolentceva, DW: “Musicians caught up in politics during Moscow free election protests: As local bands recently performed at an opposition rally in Moscow, other pop stars were simultaneously invited by the government to play at ‘spoiler’ festivals that some say aim to distract the public from politics.”

Marc Behrendt and Sofya Orlosky, The Hill: “The fact that the protests still happened shows a level of coordination among opposition groups — and the effectiveness of their joint messaging — that we haven’t seen in Russia at least since the early 1990s. Moreover, it shows that for some reason the authorities have hit a nerve that Muscovites, and increasingly others around the country, are reacting to.”

Moldova Local – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.

The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.

RFE/RL: “Bolton Reaffirms U.S. Support For Moldovan Sovereignty

Cnaan Liphshiz, Jewish Telegraphic Agency: “Moldova’s Jews feel an anti-Semitic backlash after a corrupt Jewish politician flees to Israel”

RFE/RL: “Moldovan Prime Minister Maia Sandu says that the country’s ‘citizens will never approve federalization,’ which is one of the proposals made by Russia to settle Moldova’s problem with its Transdniester breakaway region.”

Belarus Legislative – November 7 (upper house, indirect) and 17, 2019 (lower house, direct) and Presidential – August 30, 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)

Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.

Alesia Rudnik, Belsat: “Belarusian Presidential Election 2020: The Game is On….The upcoming presidential campaign is likely to focus on independence and potential Russian invasion. It was widely discussed and speculated upon in the last few years due to the Russian aggression in Ukraine.”

Alexis Mrachek, Heritage Foundation’s The Daily Signal: “White House national security adviser John Bolton traveled Thursday to Belarus to meet with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. That’s significant, because no senior U.S. official had visited Belarus in more than 18 years.”

RFE/RL: “Bolton Says U.S.-Belarus Dialogue Necessary, Despite ‘Significant Issues’”

Yaraslau Stseshyk, Belsat: “Here the interests coincide: Bolton wants to keep Russia from annexing Belarus, while Lukashenka does not want to lose power. In addition, Moscow’s aggressive actions have overshadowed the issue of human rights in Belarus, where there are no fundamental improvements.”

Updated August 31, 2019

Joel Gehrke, Washington Examiner: “‘It is extraordinary that Ambassador Bolton went to Belarus,’ Heather Conley, director of the Europe Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told the Washington Examiner. ‘It’s clearly a strong message to the Kremlin, that — as the Kremlin becomes more deeply involved in our neighborhood, whether that’s Cuba or Venezuela — the U.S. will play a more assertive role in its neighboring countries.’”

Stratfor: “Belarus: Putin Calls Belarusian President After Bolton-Lukashenko Talks”

Uzbekistan Parliamentary – December 22, 2019 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic (highly authoritarian)

Elections in Uzbekistan are neither free nor fair, and political opposition is not able to operate in the country. Longtime dictator Islam Karimov, who oversaw the world’s worst massacre of protesters since Tiananmen and tortured dissidents (even boiling some of them to death), died in 2016. His successor, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, has showed some openness to reform, such as a move to end forced labor during the cotton harvest and the release of some – not all – political prisoners, but the country remains a consolidated autocracy. The Oliy Majlis, Uzbekistan’s bicameral parliament, has historically been passive, although Mirziyoyev has called for the body to take a more active role. However, the political space does not exist for legislators to hold the executive branch accountable, and none of the parties in the Oliy Majlis are genuinely opposition.

Fakhri Vakilov, Trend (Azerbaijan): “The Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights of the Organization for Security and Cooperation (OSCE/ODIHR) will send a full-fledged mission to the parliamentary elections in Uzbekistan for the first time,Trendreports citing the press service of the Central Election Commission (CEC) of Uzbekistan.”

OSCE/ODIHR Uzbekistan Elections Needs Assessment Mission Report: “The upcoming parliamentary elections are viewed as an important political event which could represent an important stage in Uzbekistan’s transition to democracy. Elections will be held under a substantially revised legal framework that, according to some ODIHR NAM interlocutors, may lead to a more competitive electoral climate.”

Georgia Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

Georgia holds competitive but imperfect elections. The eccentric oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili runs the show from behind the scenes, despite holding no official office. Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakasvili’s pro-European, pro-NATO United National Movement. Ivanishvili’s candidate, Salome Zurabishvili, won last year’s disputed presidential election. Georgian Dream did well in by-elections in May.

In June, a series of protests broke out over Russia, which occupies 20 percent of Georgia’s territory. The government’s brutal response could harm the coalition ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.

Georgian Journal: “After the summer Tbilisi is expecting another hot season: Every evening in June and July hundreds of protesters came to the parliament to demonstrate. Then the summer heat cooled down the demonstrators. But now they announce their return.”

Euronews: “In stark contrast to Britain’s contentious divorce proceedings with Brussels, and many other difficult conversations currently taking place within the EU, a recent poll says some 83 percent of Georgians want to be part of Europe. Why are they so keen to join the bloc?”

On August 25, Abkhazia, a region of Georgia currently occupied by Russia, held elections that were widely condemned by the international community as illegitimate.

Civil.ge: “Voters in Georgia’s Russian-occupied region of Abkhazia went to the polls on August 25, to elect the region’s new ‘president.’ However, the polls, that Tbilisi and International Community call illegitimate, will go into a runoff as none of the nine candidates managed to overcome the 50% threshold.”

Democracy & Freedom Watch: “Observers had predicted a solid victory for [incumbent ‘president’ Raul] Khajimba, a former KGB operative and close ally of the Kremlin, but preliminary results indicate he has only a minor lead on his opponents.”

Ilham Karimli, Caspian News: “Azerbaijan’s central government has publicly denounced an illegal presidential election held in the breakaway region of Georgia known as Abkhazia, held last Sunday and seen in Baku as an affront to Georgia’s sovereignty.”

Updated August 30, 2019

Onnik James Krikorian, Stratfor: “In Georgia, It’s Open Season for the Far-Right….Indeed, with authorities often turning a blind eye to far-right and neo-Nazi activities and an increasingly unpopular government opening the way for more ultraconservative groupings to enter Parliament and spread their views, Georgia stands on the verge of a shift much further to the right.”

Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Kyrgyzstan began a halting transition to democracy following the Tulip Revolution of 2005, and following another revolution in 2010, the country switched to a parliamentary system and presidents were restricted to one term in office, in an effort to curtail presidential power and authoritarian backsliding. The current president, Sooronbay Jeenbekov, was elected in 2017, leading to Kyrgyzstan’s first peaceful transfer of power between two elected presidents. Jeenbekov had been backed by his predecessor, Almazbek Atambayev, but relations between the two have since soured. Atambayev staged a series of protests. The political climate remains tense ahead of next year’s parliamentary polls.

Federica Reccia, Global Risk Insights: “Kyrgyzstan: Risk of a third revolution? Notwithstanding the recent violent unrest in Kyrgyzstan, Atambayev’s saga is unlikely to lead to a violent overthrow of the government, which occurred in the country in 2005 and 2010.”

Catherine Putz, The Diplomat: “A Certainly Incomplete Update on Detained Kyrgyz Politicians: A litigious air has swept Kyrgyzstan: It’s hard to keep track of who has been detained and who could be next.”

Updated August 30, 2019

Eurasianet: “Kyrgyzstan’s revolving doors of justice and politics. Some politicians are coming out of prison. Others are going in. And then there are elections looming on the horizon.”

Past Elections
Ukraine Snap Parliamentary – July 21, 2019 (following presidential elections earlier this year)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

Actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate largely centers on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.

Zelensky’s Servant of the People party previously did not have any seats in the Rada, but swept the elections to win an unprecedented parliamentary majority. More than half of the MPs are new.

Pavel Polityuk and Natalia Zinets, Reuters: “Political novice Honcharuk appointed Ukraine PM, to focus on economy”

Al Jazeera: “Who is Oleksiy Honcharuk, Ukraine’s new prime minister? Lawyer Oleksiy Honcharuk has a reputation as a workaholic, and will likely toe the line of President Volodymyr Zelensky….Only 35 years old and with just three months of government experience, Oleksiy Honcharuk has become Ukraine’s youngest-ever prime minister amid a stalling economy and war in the east.”

RFE/RL: “Ukraine Parliament Speaker Signs New Electoral Code Long Pushed For By The West: Outgoing Ukrainian parliament speaker Andriy Parubiy on August 27 signed a bill that amends the Electoral Code to make political party lists open and eliminates single-mandate constituencies in future elections.”

Oleg Chupryna, London School of Economics’ EUROPP: “Understanding Ukraine’s electoral revolution”

Alexander J. Motyl and Dennis Soltys, Foreign Policy: “Ukraine’s Democracy Is (Almost) All Grown Up. If Zelensky can build on his predecessor’s legacy, he may just succeed in furthering Ukraine’s economic growth and drawing the country still closer to the West.”

Kazakhstan Snap Presidential – June 9, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Longtime strongman Nursultan Nazerbayev, who ruled Kazakhstan since independence in 1991, surprised everyone by stepping down and calling a snap presidential election. Unsurprisingly, his chosen successor, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, won in a tightly-managed election that observers judged not free and not fair. In the days surrounding the election, over 1,000 people were arrested for peacefully protesting. No real opposition exists within Kazakhstan, but some think that the seeds of a civic awakening are being planted.

Mariya Gordeyeva, Reuters: “Kazakhstan’s government allowed pro-democracy youth activists to hold small-scale public rallies demanding constitutional reform on Friday, signaling more tolerance for its critics.”

Kassymkhan Kapparov, Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)’s The Strategist: “The reforms Kazakhstan needs”

Armenia Snap Parliamentary – December 9, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy

On December 9, Armenia’s snap parliamentary elections officially elected former MP and journalist Nikol Pashinyan as prime minister. The snap elections followed a series of protests that led to the resignation of Serzh Sargsyan, Armenia’s former president who became prime minister in an attempt to remain in power when faced with term limits. This has been dubbed Armenia’s “Velvet Revolution.” The Economist named Armenia country of the year for 2018.

Ani Mejlumyan, Eurasianet: “A Yerevan businessman who was once such a powerful government official that he was known as Armenia’s ‘super minister,’ was arrested on August 27. Gagik Khachatryan, a former finance minister and former chairman of the State Revenue Committee, is suspected of large-scale embezzlement and abuse of power.”

Nagorno-Karabakh (called Artsakh in Armenian), a breakaway region of Azerbaijan that is mostly ethnic Armenian, will hold local elections on September 8 2019 and presidential and parliamentary elections in March 2020. Local politicians frequently advocate for the region’s independence. Armenia stops short of endorsing independence (and officially claims the region), but it does provide military, financial, and political support. The region remains a frozen conflict.

Tigran Grigoryan, OC Media: “The Velvet Revolution in Armenia completely changed the political landscape in Nagorno-Karabakh. Karabakh’s ruling elite found itself utterly baffled amidst the drastic political changes in Armenia. The political hierarchy that was in place for decades crumbled overnight, and created a power vacuum. The decision-making process in the republic became paralysed, at least for a little while.”

 

The Year Ahead: Eurasia
Ukraine snap parliamentary (July 21); Russia local (September 8); Moldova local (October 20); Belarus parliamentary (November 17); Uzbekistan parliamentary (December 22 – tentative); Azerbaijan local (December 27); Tajikistan parliamentary (March)

 

Oleksiy Honcharuk, a 35-year-old political novice, became Ukraine’s youngest-ever prime minister. Photo credit: Wikimedia/President of Ukraine (CC BY 4.0)

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