Upcoming Elections
India, Haryana State and Maharashtra State Assemblies – October 2019 or November 2019 and Jharkhand State Assembly – November 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
India has 29 states and seven union territories. Indian states are big – Maharashtra, whose capital is Mumbai, has 112 million people, Haryana 25 million, and Jharkhand 32 million. Coalitions headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently control all three state legislatures. The BJP won a massive victory in elections to the Lok Sabha, India’s national parliament, earlier this year, giving it a second term in power as the majority party able to govern without coalition partners, in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – did well in a series of state elections late last year but is reeling from the whiplash of defeat in the Lok Sabha polls. The state elections are happening in the context of a renewed push from Modi to institute “one nation, one election” – a proposal to hold state elections at the same time as elections to the Lok Sabha. Critics say the plan is a ploy to centralize power.
In a surprise geopolitical development, on August 5, 2019, the Modi government made a unilateral decision to strip the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir of its autonomy. The region, which is majority Muslim, is claimed by both India and Pakistan and has sparked three wars. For seventy years, the Indian-controlled part – established as the state of Jammu and Kashmir – enjoyed a high degree of autonomy, but Modi announced that the state would be downgraded into two union territories, effectively centralizing control. The area remains on virtual lockdown. Some have been critical of the decision, which Modi defends.
LiveMint: “Weeks after taking over as the Congress president, Sonia Gandhi’s key challenge will be to deal with factionalism in poll-bound Jharkhand and Haryana, while addressing the leadership vacuum in Delhi. Though Gandhi has wasted no time in devising election strategies for the three states, new appointments and election-related committees may not be enough to contain the rising rebellion in its ranks.”
Manish Anand, New Indian Express: “Faction fight in Jharkhand worries BJP ahead of Assembly polls: BJP vice president Om Mathur, who has been appointed election in-charge for Jharkhand, is set to camp in the state in the run-up to the Assembly elections in November.”
Ravi Tripathi and Tanweer Azam, Zee News: “The assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir is likely to be held in 2021 following the delimitation of parliamentary and assembly constituencies of the newly formed Union Territory.”
Jeffrey Gettleman, New York Times: “Tensions Over Kashmir Rise but India Says No Plans for War”
Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan, New York Times: “Imran Khan: The World Can’t Ignore Kashmir. We Are All in Danger. If the world does nothing to stop the Indian assault on Kashmir and its people, two nuclear-armed states will get ever closer to a direct military confrontation.”
Lauren Frayer, NPR: “Nearly 4 Weeks Into India’s Clampdown, Kashmiris Describe Protests, Jail, Uncertainty”
New Zealand Local – October 12, 2019 and Parliamentary – by November 21, 2020 (likely to be earlier)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
New Zealand’s two main parties are the center-left Labour Party and center-right National Party. National won the most votes and seats in the 2017 elections, but not enough to form a government. Labour formed a coalition with New Zealand First, a populist party that has worked with both Labour and National in the past, backed by a confidence and supply agreement with the Green Party (Labour and New Zealand First combined have the same number of seats as National – 55). Labour leader Jacinda Ardern – a former DJ who is on the left wing of the party – became Prime Minister and is currently the world’s youngest female government.
Local elections in New Zealand have had low turnout for decades, but the local polls could serve as an interesting barometer ahead of next year’s parliamentary polls – which are due by November 2020 but could be called earlier – for which parties have already started campaigning.
Scoop: “Stats show competitive local elections loom: With just six weeks until the final day of voting, the 2019 New Zealand Local Elections are shaping up to be hugely competitive with more than two candidates standing for every city, district and regional council seat on offer across the country (2,076 candidates standing for the 889 seats).”
Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
A series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets on at least one occasion – has been taking place in Hong Kong all summer. The proximate cause was a controversial extradition bill, but even though the bill has been put on hold, protesters persist, calling for more democracy and free elections.
Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. The protest movement could boost the pro-democracy camp.
Austin Ramzy and Ezra Cheung, New York Times: “The police in Hong Kong on Friday arrested pro-democracy lawmakers and prominent activists and blocked plans for a march on Saturday, a sensitive political anniversary, as the authorities intensified their crackdown on an opposition movement that has shaken the semiautonomous Chinese city for months.”
Updated August 31, 2019
James Griffiths, Helen Regan, Caitlin Hu, CNN: “Blue dye, tear gas and petrol bombs on Hong Kong’s 13th straight weekend of unrest”
Tripti Lahiri, Quartz: “Hong Kong is burning, five years to the day Beijing dashed its hopes of democracy: Even though police banned a rally and a march to mark Aug. 31, 2014—the day that set Hong Kong on the path to the Umbrella Movement—Hong Kongers still took to the streets, facing water cannons and tear gas, and setting fires in the city’s business and shopping districts as they faced off with riot police.”
NKH World: “A group of pro-democracy Hong Kong lawmakers has sent a letter to Chinese President Xi Jinping, demanding democratic elections for the territory. The letter, co-signed by 24 lawmakers, was reportedly sent to China’s liaison office in Hong Kong on Saturday.”
Sri Lanka Presidential – December 7, 2019 and Parliamentary – February 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Sri Lanka is still feeling the aftershocks of a series of terrorist attacks over Easter 2019 and a 2018 political crisis in which President Maithripala Sirisena tried to dissolve parliament and remove Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe from office and replace him with former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was president from 2005 to 2015. Ultimately, Wickremesinghe was reinstated, but the crisis has deep roots and tensions remain high in Sri Lankan politics.
The two major parties are Sirisena’s center-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Wickremesinghe’s center-right United National Party. Rajapaksa left the SLPF in 2018 and now leads the populist Sri Lanka People’s Front/Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). In the last presidential elections, Rajapaksa surprisingly lost to Sirisena, who embarked on a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Rajapaksa had built up. Sirisena is eligible to run for a second term and could run again. His potential challengers include Wickremesinghe and one of Rajapaksa’s siblings (Rajapaksa is not eligible to run for president again due to term limits adopted during Sirisena’s presidency). Rajapaksa’s SLPP did well in local elections last year. Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice, and the upcoming elections could well determine whether it strengthens or deteriorates.
News First (Sri Lanka): “The National Elections Commission says preparations have begun with regard to holding Presidential Elections. A spokesperson said that steps have been taken to visit all polling centres within the course of the next few days.”
Taiwan Presidential and Legislative – January 11, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Taiwan has a robust democracy. The two main parties are President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT, founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate. Tsai won the DPP presidential primary, and the KMT holds its own primary next month. Candidates include Terry Guo, Taiwan’s richest man, and Beijing’s choice, Han Kuo-yu, the populist mayor of Kaohsiung, a major port city in the south. The DPP currently controls the Legislative Yuan. Last year’s local elections swept the KMT back into many local offices that they had lost during the 2014 local elections – with some interference from China. China is expected to attempt to influence the upcoming elections as well.
The 2014 Sunflower Movement, in which a group of student activists briefly seized control of the Legislative Yuan to oppose greater economic integration with the mainland, continues to play a role in Taiwanese political debates. Sunflower activists inspired the founding of the New Power Party (NPP), meant to be a third option.
Charlie Lyons Jones, Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)’s The Strategist: “The mayor of Taipei, Ko Wen-je, is yet to announce his formal candidacy but could be laying the foundations to run….If he decides to do so, he’ll need to win over moderate voters who are dissatisfied with Tsai but deeply sceptical of Han. Yet, such a strategy could siphon votes from Tsai and provide a path to victory for Han. That would mean walking Taiwan right into Beijing’s perfect storm.”
Channel News Asia: “Small parties aim high amid highly competitive 2020 elections”
Hwang Chun-mei, Radio Free Asia: “Taiwan President to Sue Purveyors of Fake News Over Degree Claims….Lawmakers say the country is doing all it can to guard against growingattempts at political infiltration and influence by the Chinese Communist Party’s United Front Work Department in Taiwan.”
Maldives Local – April 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Maldives is an idyllic Indian Ocean archipelago usually associated with honeymoons and oligarchs, although it was ruled by a brutal dictatorship for decades. The country had a remarkable transition to democracy in 2008, followed by several setbacks, delivered a clear win for pro-democracy forces in recent presidential and parliamentary elections.
Aishath Shaany, Raajje: “Local Council Elections 2020 to be held in April. The Elections Commission said that they are currently discussing on holding the elections during the first week of April.”
Mohamed Junayd, Maldives Independent: “Elected island, atoll, and city councils with three-year terms were introduced in the Maldives for the first time under a landmark decentralisation law mandated by the 2008 constitution. The first elections were held in February 2011.”
AP: “The Maldives’ Parliament on Wednesday voted to oust a Supreme Court judge for the first time after an investigation found him guilty of accepting bribes and using his position to gain inappropriate favors.”
Philippines Village Elections – May 11, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Political parties in the Philippines are weak, and politics tends to be based not on ideology but rather personality and dynasty (for instance, a survey in 2014 found that 70 percent of elected representatives were members of political dynasties). In 2016, Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider (although his daughter, Sara, now holds the mayorship of Davao, her father’s former job). Duterte has governed with an iron fist, waging a drug war that has resulted in thousands of extrajudicial killings, sparking an investigation by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity. The government has cracked down on critics, including elected officials and journalists. Duterte allies swept the 2019 midterm legislative and local elections. Despite some proposals to postpone the 2020 village and youth council elections, the Commission on Elections (Comelec) announced that the polls would take place on schedule, on May 11, 2020.
Michael Bueza and Glenda Marie Castro, Rappler: “MAP: Major political families in PH after the 2019 elections. (UPDATED) Rappler counts at least 163 families whose members include a senator, House representative, or governor, serving at the same time as relatives in other local positions.”
Kelsey Munro, Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter (Podcast): “If we are now living in the age of networked disinformation, was the Philippines Patient Zero?”
Yen Nee Lee, CNBC: “Philippine President Duterte says he’ll stand up to China – he might not deliver”
Past Elections
Nauru Parliamentary – August 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
The last parliamentary elections took place in 2016. Most candidates run as independents. Of the 19 MPs, 17 support the government and two are opposition. Parliament then elects the president. In 2016, President Baron Waqa was re-elected.
Tiny Nauru may only have the population of a single street in Beijing (around 13,000), but the country stands up to China, recognizing Taiwan. At a forum for Pacific nations that Nauru hosted in 2018, Waqa called the Chinese envoy “insolent” and a “bully” when the Chinese envoy attempted to interrupt the representative from Tuvalu, another tiny Pacific nation that also recognizes Taiwan. Waqa laterdoubled down, demanding that China apologize for its “arrogance.”
DW: “Nauru lawmakers were set to choose a new president after Baron Waqa failed to gather enough votes to stay in office, according to early results of the general election reported on Sunday. Waqa has ruled the Micronesian nation of 11,300 for the last six years. He is a vocal proponent of the Australian refugee camp on the nation’s territory, with Australia’s fees providing Nauru with about a third of its national income.”
Richard Ewart, ABC News (Australia): “Nauru’s Parliament elects former human rights lawyer Lionel Aingimea as President”
Indonesia Regional – September 23, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Nine provinces will hold gubernatorial elections: West Sumatra, Jambi, Bengkulu, Riau Islands, Central Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, North Kalimantan, North Sulawesi, and Southeast Sulawesi, plus 224 districts will hold regent elections, while mayoral election in 37 cities across 32 provinces in Indonesia.
In Indonesia’s April 2019 election – the biggest single day of voting in the history of the world – incumbent Joko Widodo (Jokowi), widely seen as a reformer, defeated challenged Prabowo Subianto for the presidency in an election deemed free and fair by the international community. However, Prabowo didn’t accept the results, and in addition to challenging them in court, he urged his supporters to take to the streets. Rioting ensued. Prabowo ultimately accepted the results, but tensions remain, particularly regarding the role of religion in politics.
Elizabeth Pisani, New York Times: “Indonesia Is Moving Its Capital to … Where, Exactly? The government is trying, once again, to abandon the much-derided Jakarta. Will it finally succeed?”
Resty Woro Yuniar, South China Morning Post: “From ‘Saint Jokoburg’ to ‘Jokopolis’, Indonesia’s new capital sparks name meme fest on Twitter”
Japan Legislative (half of upper house) – July 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Shinzo Abe’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) sought to gain a two-thirds majority in the upper house (which it already held in the lower house with coalition partner Komeito, a Buddhist religious party) in order to revisit and possibly amend Japan’s pacifist constitution. LDP and Komeito did maintain their majority in the upper house, but fell short of the super-majority.
Ben Ascione and Yumi Osaki, Australian National University’s East Asia Forum: “After Abe, Japan desperately needs fresh political blood….There are some small signs of optimism that Japan’s political sclerosis might be overcome and new sources of innovative leadership developed. Yet significant changes are needed to promote greater meritocracy within the LDP, to rebuild credible opposition parties that can hold the government accountable and provide platforms for leadership, and to advance the participation of women in Japan’s political leadership.”
Australia Federal Parliamentary – May 18, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Nick Bonyhady, Sydney Morning Herald: “’Australia is not immune’: Data whistleblower warns of Chinese influence on elections”
Chris Horton, The Atlantic: “China’s Playbook in Hong Kong Is Also Working in the Asia-Pacific: Beijing has co-opted politicians, guided media narratives, and used investment to influence politics from Cambodia to Australia.”
Cambodia General – July 29, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Niem Chheng, Phnom Penh Post: “Sam Rainsy ‘the acting president’ of the Supreme Court-dissolved Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), told supporters in Australia at the weekend that the Kingdom had lost its independence to China, while outlining plans for his announced return.”
Niem Chheng, Phnom Penh Post: “Minister of Interior Sar Kheng on Thursday [August 29] said action will be taken against any gathering in support of the Supreme Court-dissolved Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) or its sister group the Cambodia National Rescue Movement (CNRM). A senior CNRP official on Thursday said that under the government ‘everything is illegal.’”
Ten Soksreinith, VOA: “Experts Say US-Cambodia Relationship at ‘Crisis Point’….Events following the results of the commune elections that year, where the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party won a third of the grassroots elected positions, showed a new low in diplomatic engagement had been reached.”
Timor-Leste Snap Parliamentary – May 12, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Fausto Belo Ximenes, The Diplomat: “Celebrating Democracy and Peace in Timor-Leste: 20 years after its independence referendum, Timor-Leste’s success story has lessons for the region and beyond.”
Sara Niner, The Conversation: “Twenty years after independence,Timor-Leste continues its epic struggle: On August 30, Timor-Leste will celebrate the referendum that gave it independence from Indonesia. For the people of this small island, it has been a long battle – one that continues today.”
Asia This Week – August 30, 2019
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Last Updated: September 10, 2019 by 21votes
August 30, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Asia and the Pacific on Fridays. Click the map pins.
India, Haryana State and Maharashtra State Assemblies – October 2019 or November 2019 and Jharkhand State Assembly – November 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
India has 29 states and seven union territories. Indian states are big – Maharashtra, whose capital is Mumbai, has 112 million people, Haryana 25 million, and Jharkhand 32 million. Coalitions headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently control all three state legislatures. The BJP won a massive victory in elections to the Lok Sabha, India’s national parliament, earlier this year, giving it a second term in power as the majority party able to govern without coalition partners, in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – did well in a series of state elections late last year but is reeling from the whiplash of defeat in the Lok Sabha polls. The state elections are happening in the context of a renewed push from Modi to institute “one nation, one election” – a proposal to hold state elections at the same time as elections to the Lok Sabha. Critics say the plan is a ploy to centralize power.
In a surprise geopolitical development, on August 5, 2019, the Modi government made a unilateral decision to strip the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir of its autonomy. The region, which is majority Muslim, is claimed by both India and Pakistan and has sparked three wars. For seventy years, the Indian-controlled part – established as the state of Jammu and Kashmir – enjoyed a high degree of autonomy, but Modi announced that the state would be downgraded into two union territories, effectively centralizing control. The area remains on virtual lockdown. Some have been critical of the decision, which Modi defends.
New Zealand Local – October 12, 2019 and Parliamentary – by November 21, 2020 (likely to be earlier)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
New Zealand’s two main parties are the center-left Labour Party and center-right National Party. National won the most votes and seats in the 2017 elections, but not enough to form a government. Labour formed a coalition with New Zealand First, a populist party that has worked with both Labour and National in the past, backed by a confidence and supply agreement with the Green Party (Labour and New Zealand First combined have the same number of seats as National – 55). Labour leader Jacinda Ardern – a former DJ who is on the left wing of the party – became Prime Minister and is currently the world’s youngest female government.
Local elections in New Zealand have had low turnout for decades, but the local polls could serve as an interesting barometer ahead of next year’s parliamentary polls – which are due by November 2020 but could be called earlier – for which parties have already started campaigning.
Sri Lanka Presidential – December 7, 2019 and Parliamentary – February 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Sri Lanka is still feeling the aftershocks of a series of terrorist attacks over Easter 2019 and a 2018 political crisis in which President Maithripala Sirisena tried to dissolve parliament and remove Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe from office and replace him with former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was president from 2005 to 2015. Ultimately, Wickremesinghe was reinstated, but the crisis has deep roots and tensions remain high in Sri Lankan politics.
The two major parties are Sirisena’s center-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Wickremesinghe’s center-right United National Party. Rajapaksa left the SLPF in 2018 and now leads the populist Sri Lanka People’s Front/Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). In the last presidential elections, Rajapaksa surprisingly lost to Sirisena, who embarked on a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Rajapaksa had built up. Sirisena is eligible to run for a second term and could run again. His potential challengers include Wickremesinghe and one of Rajapaksa’s siblings (Rajapaksa is not eligible to run for president again due to term limits adopted during Sirisena’s presidency). Rajapaksa’s SLPP did well in local elections last year. Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice, and the upcoming elections could well determine whether it strengthens or deteriorates.
Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
A series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets on at least one occasion – has been taking place in Hong Kong all summer. The proximate cause was a controversial extradition bill, but even though the bill has been put on hold, protesters persist, calling for more democracy and free elections.
Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. The protest movement could boost the pro-democracy camp.
Taiwan Presidential and Legislative – January 11, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Taiwan has a robust democracy. The two main parties are President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT, founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate. Tsai won the DPP presidential primary, and the KMT holds its own primary next month. Candidates include Terry Guo, Taiwan’s richest man, and Beijing’s choice, Han Kuo-yu, the populist mayor of Kaohsiung, a major port city in the south. The DPP currently controls the Legislative Yuan. Last year’s local elections swept the KMT back into many local offices that they had lost during the 2014 local elections – with some interference from China. China is expected to attempt to influence the upcoming elections as well.
The 2014 Sunflower Movement, in which a group of student activists briefly seized control of the Legislative Yuan to oppose greater economic integration with the mainland, continues to play a role in Taiwanese political debates. Sunflower activists inspired the founding of the New Power Party (NPP), meant to be a third option.
Maldives Local - April 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Maldives is an idyllic Indian Ocean archipelago usually associated with honeymoons and oligarchs, although it was ruled by a brutal dictatorship for decades. The country had a remarkable transition to democracy in 2008, followed by several setbacks, delivered a clear win for pro-democracy forces in recent presidential and parliamentary elections.
Philippines Village Elections – May 11, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Political parties in the Philippines are weak, and politics tends to be based not on ideology but rather personality and dynasty (for instance, a survey in 2014 found that 70 percent of elected representatives were members of political dynasties). In 2016, Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider (although his daughter, Sara, now holds the mayorship of Davao, her father’s former job). Duterte has governed with an iron fist, waging a drug war that has resulted in thousands of extrajudicial killings, sparking an investigation by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity. The government has cracked down on critics, including elected officials and journalists. Duterte allies swept the 2019 midterm legislative and local elections. Despite some proposals to postpone the 2020 village and youth council elections, the Commission on Elections (Comelec) announced that the polls would take place on schedule, on May 11, 2020.
Nauru Parliamentary – August 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
The last parliamentary elections took place in 2016. Most candidates run as independents. Of the 19 MPs, 17 support the government and two are opposition. Parliament then elects the president. In 2016, President Baron Waqa was re-elected.
Tiny Nauru may only have the population of a single street in Beijing (around 13,000), but the country stands up to China, recognizing Taiwan. At a forum for Pacific nations that Nauru hosted in 2018, Waqa called the Chinese envoy “insolent” and a “bully” when the Chinese envoy attempted to interrupt the representative from Tuvalu, another tiny Pacific nation that also recognizes Taiwan. Waqa laterdoubled down, demanding that China apologize for its “arrogance.”
Indonesia Regional – September 23, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Nine provinces will hold gubernatorial elections: West Sumatra, Jambi, Bengkulu, Riau Islands, Central Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, North Kalimantan, North Sulawesi, and Southeast Sulawesi, plus 224 districts will hold regent elections, while mayoral election in 37 cities across 32 provinces in Indonesia.
In Indonesia’s April 2019 election – the biggest single day of voting in the history of the world – incumbent Joko Widodo (Jokowi), widely seen as a reformer, defeated challenged Prabowo Subianto for the presidency in an election deemed free and fair by the international community. However, Prabowo didn’t accept the results, and in addition to challenging them in court, he urged his supporters to take to the streets. Rioting ensued. Prabowo ultimately accepted the results, but tensions remain, particularly regarding the role of religion in politics.
Japan Legislative (half of upper house) – July 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Shinzo Abe’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) sought to gain a two-thirds majority in the upper house (which it already held in the lower house with coalition partner Komeito, a Buddhist religious party) in order to revisit and possibly amend Japan’s pacifist constitution. LDP and Komeito did maintain their majority in the upper house, but fell short of the super-majority.
Australia Federal Parliamentary – May 18, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Cambodia General – July 29, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Timor-Leste Snap Parliamentary - May 12, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Upcoming Elections
India, Haryana State and Maharashtra State Assemblies – October 2019 or November 2019 and Jharkhand State Assembly – November 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
India has 29 states and seven union territories. Indian states are big – Maharashtra, whose capital is Mumbai, has 112 million people, Haryana 25 million, and Jharkhand 32 million. Coalitions headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently control all three state legislatures. The BJP won a massive victory in elections to the Lok Sabha, India’s national parliament, earlier this year, giving it a second term in power as the majority party able to govern without coalition partners, in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – did well in a series of state elections late last year but is reeling from the whiplash of defeat in the Lok Sabha polls. The state elections are happening in the context of a renewed push from Modi to institute “one nation, one election” – a proposal to hold state elections at the same time as elections to the Lok Sabha. Critics say the plan is a ploy to centralize power.
In a surprise geopolitical development, on August 5, 2019, the Modi government made a unilateral decision to strip the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir of its autonomy. The region, which is majority Muslim, is claimed by both India and Pakistan and has sparked three wars. For seventy years, the Indian-controlled part – established as the state of Jammu and Kashmir – enjoyed a high degree of autonomy, but Modi announced that the state would be downgraded into two union territories, effectively centralizing control. The area remains on virtual lockdown. Some have been critical of the decision, which Modi defends.
LiveMint: “Weeks after taking over as the Congress president, Sonia Gandhi’s key challenge will be to deal with factionalism in poll-bound Jharkhand and Haryana, while addressing the leadership vacuum in Delhi. Though Gandhi has wasted no time in devising election strategies for the three states, new appointments and election-related committees may not be enough to contain the rising rebellion in its ranks.”
Manish Anand, New Indian Express: “Faction fight in Jharkhand worries BJP ahead of Assembly polls: BJP vice president Om Mathur, who has been appointed election in-charge for Jharkhand, is set to camp in the state in the run-up to the Assembly elections in November.”
Ravi Tripathi and Tanweer Azam, Zee News: “The assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir is likely to be held in 2021 following the delimitation of parliamentary and assembly constituencies of the newly formed Union Territory.”
Jeffrey Gettleman, New York Times: “Tensions Over Kashmir Rise but India Says No Plans for War”
Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan, New York Times: “Imran Khan: The World Can’t Ignore Kashmir. We Are All in Danger. If the world does nothing to stop the Indian assault on Kashmir and its people, two nuclear-armed states will get ever closer to a direct military confrontation.”
Lauren Frayer, NPR: “Nearly 4 Weeks Into India’s Clampdown, Kashmiris Describe Protests, Jail, Uncertainty”
New Zealand Local – October 12, 2019 and Parliamentary – by November 21, 2020 (likely to be earlier)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
New Zealand’s two main parties are the center-left Labour Party and center-right National Party. National won the most votes and seats in the 2017 elections, but not enough to form a government. Labour formed a coalition with New Zealand First, a populist party that has worked with both Labour and National in the past, backed by a confidence and supply agreement with the Green Party (Labour and New Zealand First combined have the same number of seats as National – 55). Labour leader Jacinda Ardern – a former DJ who is on the left wing of the party – became Prime Minister and is currently the world’s youngest female government.
Local elections in New Zealand have had low turnout for decades, but the local polls could serve as an interesting barometer ahead of next year’s parliamentary polls – which are due by November 2020 but could be called earlier – for which parties have already started campaigning.
Scoop: “Stats show competitive local elections loom: With just six weeks until the final day of voting, the 2019 New Zealand Local Elections are shaping up to be hugely competitive with more than two candidates standing for every city, district and regional council seat on offer across the country (2,076 candidates standing for the 889 seats).”
Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
A series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets on at least one occasion – has been taking place in Hong Kong all summer. The proximate cause was a controversial extradition bill, but even though the bill has been put on hold, protesters persist, calling for more democracy and free elections.
Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. The protest movement could boost the pro-democracy camp.
Austin Ramzy and Ezra Cheung, New York Times: “The police in Hong Kong on Friday arrested pro-democracy lawmakers and prominent activists and blocked plans for a march on Saturday, a sensitive political anniversary, as the authorities intensified their crackdown on an opposition movement that has shaken the semiautonomous Chinese city for months.”
Updated August 31, 2019
James Griffiths, Helen Regan, Caitlin Hu, CNN: “Blue dye, tear gas and petrol bombs on Hong Kong’s 13th straight weekend of unrest”
Tripti Lahiri, Quartz: “Hong Kong is burning, five years to the day Beijing dashed its hopes of democracy: Even though police banned a rally and a march to mark Aug. 31, 2014—the day that set Hong Kong on the path to the Umbrella Movement—Hong Kongers still took to the streets, facing water cannons and tear gas, and setting fires in the city’s business and shopping districts as they faced off with riot police.”
NKH World: “A group of pro-democracy Hong Kong lawmakers has sent a letter to Chinese President Xi Jinping, demanding democratic elections for the territory. The letter, co-signed by 24 lawmakers, was reportedly sent to China’s liaison office in Hong Kong on Saturday.”
Sri Lanka Presidential – December 7, 2019 and Parliamentary – February 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Sri Lanka is still feeling the aftershocks of a series of terrorist attacks over Easter 2019 and a 2018 political crisis in which President Maithripala Sirisena tried to dissolve parliament and remove Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe from office and replace him with former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was president from 2005 to 2015. Ultimately, Wickremesinghe was reinstated, but the crisis has deep roots and tensions remain high in Sri Lankan politics.
The two major parties are Sirisena’s center-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Wickremesinghe’s center-right United National Party. Rajapaksa left the SLPF in 2018 and now leads the populist Sri Lanka People’s Front/Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). In the last presidential elections, Rajapaksa surprisingly lost to Sirisena, who embarked on a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Rajapaksa had built up. Sirisena is eligible to run for a second term and could run again. His potential challengers include Wickremesinghe and one of Rajapaksa’s siblings (Rajapaksa is not eligible to run for president again due to term limits adopted during Sirisena’s presidency). Rajapaksa’s SLPP did well in local elections last year. Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice, and the upcoming elections could well determine whether it strengthens or deteriorates.
News First (Sri Lanka): “The National Elections Commission says preparations have begun with regard to holding Presidential Elections. A spokesperson said that steps have been taken to visit all polling centres within the course of the next few days.”
Taiwan Presidential and Legislative – January 11, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Taiwan has a robust democracy. The two main parties are President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT, founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate. Tsai won the DPP presidential primary, and the KMT holds its own primary next month. Candidates include Terry Guo, Taiwan’s richest man, and Beijing’s choice, Han Kuo-yu, the populist mayor of Kaohsiung, a major port city in the south. The DPP currently controls the Legislative Yuan. Last year’s local elections swept the KMT back into many local offices that they had lost during the 2014 local elections – with some interference from China. China is expected to attempt to influence the upcoming elections as well.
The 2014 Sunflower Movement, in which a group of student activists briefly seized control of the Legislative Yuan to oppose greater economic integration with the mainland, continues to play a role in Taiwanese political debates. Sunflower activists inspired the founding of the New Power Party (NPP), meant to be a third option.
Charlie Lyons Jones, Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)’s The Strategist: “The mayor of Taipei, Ko Wen-je, is yet to announce his formal candidacy but could be laying the foundations to run….If he decides to do so, he’ll need to win over moderate voters who are dissatisfied with Tsai but deeply sceptical of Han. Yet, such a strategy could siphon votes from Tsai and provide a path to victory for Han. That would mean walking Taiwan right into Beijing’s perfect storm.”
Channel News Asia: “Small parties aim high amid highly competitive 2020 elections”
Hwang Chun-mei, Radio Free Asia: “Taiwan President to Sue Purveyors of Fake News Over Degree Claims….Lawmakers say the country is doing all it can to guard against growingattempts at political infiltration and influence by the Chinese Communist Party’s United Front Work Department in Taiwan.”
Maldives Local – April 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Maldives is an idyllic Indian Ocean archipelago usually associated with honeymoons and oligarchs, although it was ruled by a brutal dictatorship for decades. The country had a remarkable transition to democracy in 2008, followed by several setbacks, delivered a clear win for pro-democracy forces in recent presidential and parliamentary elections.
Aishath Shaany, Raajje: “Local Council Elections 2020 to be held in April. The Elections Commission said that they are currently discussing on holding the elections during the first week of April.”
Mohamed Junayd, Maldives Independent: “Elected island, atoll, and city councils with three-year terms were introduced in the Maldives for the first time under a landmark decentralisation law mandated by the 2008 constitution. The first elections were held in February 2011.”
AP: “The Maldives’ Parliament on Wednesday voted to oust a Supreme Court judge for the first time after an investigation found him guilty of accepting bribes and using his position to gain inappropriate favors.”
Philippines Village Elections – May 11, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Political parties in the Philippines are weak, and politics tends to be based not on ideology but rather personality and dynasty (for instance, a survey in 2014 found that 70 percent of elected representatives were members of political dynasties). In 2016, Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider (although his daughter, Sara, now holds the mayorship of Davao, her father’s former job). Duterte has governed with an iron fist, waging a drug war that has resulted in thousands of extrajudicial killings, sparking an investigation by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity. The government has cracked down on critics, including elected officials and journalists. Duterte allies swept the 2019 midterm legislative and local elections. Despite some proposals to postpone the 2020 village and youth council elections, the Commission on Elections (Comelec) announced that the polls would take place on schedule, on May 11, 2020.
Michael Bueza and Glenda Marie Castro, Rappler: “MAP: Major political families in PH after the 2019 elections. (UPDATED) Rappler counts at least 163 families whose members include a senator, House representative, or governor, serving at the same time as relatives in other local positions.”
Kelsey Munro, Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter (Podcast): “If we are now living in the age of networked disinformation, was the Philippines Patient Zero?”
Yen Nee Lee, CNBC: “Philippine President Duterte says he’ll stand up to China – he might not deliver”
Past Elections
Nauru Parliamentary – August 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
The last parliamentary elections took place in 2016. Most candidates run as independents. Of the 19 MPs, 17 support the government and two are opposition. Parliament then elects the president. In 2016, President Baron Waqa was re-elected.
Tiny Nauru may only have the population of a single street in Beijing (around 13,000), but the country stands up to China, recognizing Taiwan. At a forum for Pacific nations that Nauru hosted in 2018, Waqa called the Chinese envoy “insolent” and a “bully” when the Chinese envoy attempted to interrupt the representative from Tuvalu, another tiny Pacific nation that also recognizes Taiwan. Waqa laterdoubled down, demanding that China apologize for its “arrogance.”
DW: “Nauru lawmakers were set to choose a new president after Baron Waqa failed to gather enough votes to stay in office, according to early results of the general election reported on Sunday. Waqa has ruled the Micronesian nation of 11,300 for the last six years. He is a vocal proponent of the Australian refugee camp on the nation’s territory, with Australia’s fees providing Nauru with about a third of its national income.”
Richard Ewart, ABC News (Australia): “Nauru’s Parliament elects former human rights lawyer Lionel Aingimea as President”
Indonesia Regional – September 23, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Nine provinces will hold gubernatorial elections: West Sumatra, Jambi, Bengkulu, Riau Islands, Central Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, North Kalimantan, North Sulawesi, and Southeast Sulawesi, plus 224 districts will hold regent elections, while mayoral election in 37 cities across 32 provinces in Indonesia.
In Indonesia’s April 2019 election – the biggest single day of voting in the history of the world – incumbent Joko Widodo (Jokowi), widely seen as a reformer, defeated challenged Prabowo Subianto for the presidency in an election deemed free and fair by the international community. However, Prabowo didn’t accept the results, and in addition to challenging them in court, he urged his supporters to take to the streets. Rioting ensued. Prabowo ultimately accepted the results, but tensions remain, particularly regarding the role of religion in politics.
Elizabeth Pisani, New York Times: “Indonesia Is Moving Its Capital to … Where, Exactly? The government is trying, once again, to abandon the much-derided Jakarta. Will it finally succeed?”
Resty Woro Yuniar, South China Morning Post: “From ‘Saint Jokoburg’ to ‘Jokopolis’, Indonesia’s new capital sparks name meme fest on Twitter”
Japan Legislative (half of upper house) – July 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Shinzo Abe’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) sought to gain a two-thirds majority in the upper house (which it already held in the lower house with coalition partner Komeito, a Buddhist religious party) in order to revisit and possibly amend Japan’s pacifist constitution. LDP and Komeito did maintain their majority in the upper house, but fell short of the super-majority.
Ben Ascione and Yumi Osaki, Australian National University’s East Asia Forum: “After Abe, Japan desperately needs fresh political blood….There are some small signs of optimism that Japan’s political sclerosis might be overcome and new sources of innovative leadership developed. Yet significant changes are needed to promote greater meritocracy within the LDP, to rebuild credible opposition parties that can hold the government accountable and provide platforms for leadership, and to advance the participation of women in Japan’s political leadership.”
Australia Federal Parliamentary – May 18, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Nick Bonyhady, Sydney Morning Herald: “’Australia is not immune’: Data whistleblower warns of Chinese influence on elections”
Chris Horton, The Atlantic: “China’s Playbook in Hong Kong Is Also Working in the Asia-Pacific: Beijing has co-opted politicians, guided media narratives, and used investment to influence politics from Cambodia to Australia.”
Cambodia General – July 29, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Niem Chheng, Phnom Penh Post: “Sam Rainsy ‘the acting president’ of the Supreme Court-dissolved Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), told supporters in Australia at the weekend that the Kingdom had lost its independence to China, while outlining plans for his announced return.”
Niem Chheng, Phnom Penh Post: “Minister of Interior Sar Kheng on Thursday [August 29] said action will be taken against any gathering in support of the Supreme Court-dissolved Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) or its sister group the Cambodia National Rescue Movement (CNRM). A senior CNRP official on Thursday said that under the government ‘everything is illegal.’”
Ten Soksreinith, VOA: “Experts Say US-Cambodia Relationship at ‘Crisis Point’….Events following the results of the commune elections that year, where the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party won a third of the grassroots elected positions, showed a new low in diplomatic engagement had been reached.”
Timor-Leste Snap Parliamentary – May 12, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Fausto Belo Ximenes, The Diplomat: “Celebrating Democracy and Peace in Timor-Leste: 20 years after its independence referendum, Timor-Leste’s success story has lessons for the region and beyond.”
Sara Niner, The Conversation: “Twenty years after independence,Timor-Leste continues its epic struggle: On August 30, Timor-Leste will celebrate the referendum that gave it independence from Indonesia. For the people of this small island, it has been a long battle – one that continues today.”
21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.
The Year Ahead: Asia
Japan, provincial elections throughout the year; India, Maharashtra and Haryana states (October); Tuvalu parliamentary (September 9); New Zealand local (October 12); Hong Kong local (November 24); Marshall Islands legislative (November); India Jharkhand State (November); Kiribati legislative (December); Sri Lanka presidential (December 7); Nepal by-elections (December 30); Taiwan presidential and legislative (January 11); Kiribati presidential (March); Maldives local (April); South Korea parliamentary (April 15); Niue parliamentary (May); Philippines village and youth council (May 11); Mongolia parliamentary (June)
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Category: This Week Tags: Australia, Cambodia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Maldives, Nauru, New Zealand, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Timor-Leste