Americas This Week – August 31, 2019

August 31, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore the Americas on Saturdays. Click the map pins.

Bolivia General – October 20, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates.

Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS) currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.

Canada General – October 21, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm

The election will be competitive, and some polls have shown that the center-right Conservatives would beat incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s center-left Liberals if the election were held today. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.

Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 and Provincial – Throughout the year

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

On the presidential front: Incumbent Mauricio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.

In the primaries on August 11, 2019, in which voters must select both a preferred party and a preferred candidate, Fernández and Kirchner won an unexpectedly high 47 percent of the vote, compared with Macri’s 33 percent.

Colombia Local – October 27, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections.

Haiti Local and Partial Parliamentary (one third of the Senate and the entire lower house) – Due October 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

Haiti is in a political crisis. Political chaos related to allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. A commission found that the election had indeed been fraudulent, and ordered a re-reun, which had only 18 percent turnout. President Moïse Jovenel was elected with 56 percent of ballots cast. The opposition alleged fraud once again, but an election tribunal conducted an investigation and certified the results. Violent protesters have demanded the president’s ouster. The 2015-2016 parliamentary elections were also marred by significant fraud. Opposition lawmakers blocked multiple attempts to ratify a new prime minister and have demanded Jovenel’s resignation.

Venezuela Legislative – December 2020 (due)

Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic

Venezuela is currently in a political crisis following disputed presidential elections in May 2018. Incumbent Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez’s protege, was declared the winner, but the elections were widely denounced as illegitimate and the opposition mostly boycotted the polls. Because Venezuela’s constitution stipulates that the leader of the National Assembly (Venezuela’s only institution with a modicum of democratic legitimacy) becomes interim president if the office is vacant, many of the world’s free democracies recognized Juan Guaidó as interim president until the country holds new elections. Maduro continues to cling to power and his forces are violently cracking down on the opposition. The regime has deployed death squads. However, the opposition perseveres. National Assembly elections are not due until December 2020, but Maduro has threatened to hold early elections, which would likely be neither free nor fair and would deprive the opposition of the one institution it controls.

The country is also in a humanitarian crisis. The capital, Caracas, is one of the most violent cities in the world. Hyperinflation has resulted in 90 percent of Venezuelans being unable to afford sufficient food, and as many as 3.4 million people (more than 10 percent of the population) have fled since 2015.

Peru Presidential and Legislative – April 2021 (President wants to move them to April 19, 2020)

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Guatemala General, Second Round – August 11, 2019 (first round was June 16)

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

These elections took place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.

In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.

Brazil General – October 7, 2018

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic

Last year’s elections in Brazil swept controversial right-wing populist firebrand Jair Bolsonaro into the presidency, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country.

Upcoming Elections
Bolivia General – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates.

Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS) currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.

Brendan O’Boyle and Fernanda Uriegas, Americas Quarterly: “Carlos Mesa’s Uphill Effort to Defeat Evo Morales: Why Bolivia’s leading opposition candidate has lost momentum.”

Andres Schipani, Financial Times: “Bolivia’s ‘environmentalist’ president Morales under fire over Amazon. Forest blazes put in doubt socialist leader’s credentials as protector of ‘Mother Earth.’

Harriet Marsden, The Independent: “The world believes the Amazon is in trouble because of Bolsonaro. Instead, they should look to Bolivia: The Amazon rainforest is trapped, burning, between a pincer-grip of unstable left-wing Morales, and unstable right-wing Bolsonaro. This could be the spark that sets a civil war alight.”

Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm

The election will be competitive, and some polls have shown that the center-right Conservatives would beat incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s center-left Liberals if the election were held today. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.

BBC: “Social issues like gay marriage and abortion have taken centre stage in the lead up to Canada’s autumn election, as the Liberal Party tries to convince voters that the Conservatives want to backtrack on LGBTQ and abortion rights.”

Scott Reid, The Globe and Mail: “Of the many potential ballot questions for the Canadian election, none are bigger than Donald Trump”

David Akin, Global News (Canada): “ANALYSIS: NDP still needs 190 candidates while Tories, People’s Party near full slate of 338….[Because] a general election is really 338 individual races — one in every riding in the country — the most important thing any federal party needs as it prepares to campaign is a candidate in each of those 338 ridings.”

CBC News: “The Manitoba Progressive Conservatives still have the most support among voters in the provincial election campaign, according to a new poll, although they are tied with the NDP within vote-rich Winnipeg. A Probe Research poll released Saturday, commissioned by the Winnipeg Free Press and CTV Winnipeg, found that 40 per cent of decided and leaning voters say they plan to vote for the PCs, while 29 said they plan to vote NDP, 18 per cent for the Liberals and 10 per cent for the Green Party.”

Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 – Throughout the year
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

On the presidential front: Incumbent Mauricio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.

In the primaries on August 11, 2019, in which voters must select both a preferred party and a preferred candidate, Fernández and Kirchner won an unexpectedly high 47 percent of the vote, compared with Macri’s 33 percent.

Stephania Taladrid, The New Yorker: “Argentina considers a return to Peronism: Before returning to Argentina from exile, in 1973, Juan Perón famously said, ‘It is not that we were good, but those who came after us were so bad that they made us look good.’ Perón died in office a year later, during his third Presidential term; he left behind a controversial legacy and a loosely populist movement, known as Peronism, that endures to this day.”

Roberto Mansilla Blanco, Global Americans: “Primary elections in Argentina…oxygen for Maduro?  We will have to pay close attention to the October elections in Argentina and how their results can have decisive collateral effects in the Venezuelan crisis.”

Sam Meredith, CNBC: “Argentina has asked for more time to pay its debts as it struggles to avoid another default”

Jorgelina Do Rosario, Bloomberg: “Macri’s Surprise Debt Plan Silences Argentina’s Opposition”

Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections.

David Unsworth, PanAm Post: “The FARC Returns to Doing What it Does Best: Terrorizing the Colombian People: A key contingent of the FARC has announced that it will return to the battlefield.”

Haiti Local and Partial Parliamentary (one third of the Senate and the entire lower house) – Due October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

Haiti is in a political crisis. Political chaos related to allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. A commission found that the election had indeed been fraudulent, and ordered a re-reun, which had only 18 percent turnout. President Moïse Jovenel was elected with 56 percent of ballots cast. The opposition alleged fraud once again, but an election tribunal conducted an investigation and certified the results. Violent protesters have demanded the president’s ouster. The 2015-2016 parliamentary elections were also marred by significant fraud. Opposition lawmakers blocked multiple attempts to ratify a new prime minister and have demanded Jovenel’s resignation.

The Haiti Sentinel: “Members of the democratic and popular sector, consisting of many groups and sectors, came together to sign an agreement for the departure of President Jovenel Moïse and the establishment of a transitional government tasked to resolve all the ills of government administration in Haiti, organize elections, and not participate.”

Christopher Gillette, AP: “AP Interview: Haitian president pledges to outlast troubles….Haiti’s president says he will serve out his term despite rising violence, poor economic performance and months of protests over unresolved allegations of corruption in his predecessor’s administration.”

Venezuela Legislative – December 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic

Venezuela is currently in a political crisis following disputed presidential elections in May 2018. Incumbent Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez’s protege, was declared the winner, but the elections were widely denounced as illegitimate and the opposition mostly boycotted the polls. Because Venezuela’s constitution stipulates that the leader of the National Assembly (Venezuela’s only institution with a modicum of democratic legitimacy) becomes interim president if the office is vacant, many of the world’s free democracies recognized Juan Guaidó as interim president until the country holds new elections. Maduro continues to cling to power and his forces are violently cracking down on the opposition. The regime has deployed death squads. However, the opposition perseveres. National Assembly elections are not due until December 2020, but Maduro has threatened to hold early elections, which would likely be neither free nor fair and would deprive the opposition of the one institution it controls.

The country is also in a humanitarian crisis. The capital, Caracas, is one of the most violent cities in the world. Hyperinflation has resulted in 90 percent of Venezuelans being unable to afford sufficient food, and as many as 3.4 million people (more than 10 percent of the population) have fled since 2015.

AP: “Venezuela’s Guaidó names shadow cabinet to help oust Maduro: The cabinet is set to include top opposition figures Leopoldo López and Julio Borges in Guaidó’s latest bid to force Nicolás Maduro from power.”

Lara Jakes and Anatoly Kurmanaev, New York Times: “A top American diplomat said the United States would not prosecute or otherwise seek to punish President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela if he voluntarily left power, despite bringing his country to the verge of economic collapse and humanitarian disaster.”

Jessica Donati, Wall Street Journal: “No Sign Venezuela’s Maduro Willing to Exit, U.S. Says: Top U.S. envoy for Venezuela says Washington and Maduro government aren’t negotiating a departure”

Reuters: “The U.S. State Department on Wednesday [August 28] opened a representative office for Venezuela in Bogota, Colombia, and said it will continue its opposition to Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and support for opposition leader Juan Guaido from there.”

Peru Presidential and Legislative – April 2021 (President wants to move them to April 19, 2020)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Gideon Long, Financial Times: “Peru’s president tries to bow out early: Vizcarra’s early election proposal heightens uncertainty as the economy suffers.

Past Elections
Guatemala General, Second Round – August 11, 2019 (first round was June 16)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

These elections took place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.

In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.

AP: “Guatemala in grip of ‘mafia coalition’, says UN body in scathing corruption report: Cicig says in final report before mandate expires corruption ‘cannot be solved without profound restructuring of the state’”

Arturo Conde, NBC: “U.S. will lose out as Guatemala shuts anti-corruption commission, say experts. ‘There is a link between corruption and migration,’ said a human rights advocate who like others says the U.S. will lose out.”

Brazil General – October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic

Last year’s elections in Brazil swept controversial right-wing populist firebrand Jair Bolsonaro into the presidency, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country.

David Nakamura, Washington Post: “How Brazil’s nationalist leader built a bond with Trump and won his support in the Amazon fires dispute”

Deepa Seetharaman and Jeff Horowitz, Wall Street Journal: “Facebook Touted Its Progress in Brazil Elections. Internally There Were Doubts. Social-media giant fell short in its battle against suspicious behavior and misinformation on site, company review showed.”

The Year Ahead: Americas
Canada provincial and territorial (throughout the year);  Haiti parliamentary (due October – delays likely); Bolivia presidential and legislative (October 20); Canada general (October 21); Argentina presidential and legislative (October 27); Uruguay presidential and legislative (October 27); Colombia local (October 27); Guyana snap parliamentary (overdue – tentatively expected November but could be later); Trinidad and Tobago local (November); Dominica legislative (December); St. Kitts and Nevis legislative (February)

Posters urging voters to support Bolivian president Evo Morales during a 2008 recall referendum. Eleven years later, Morales is still in power, and seeking another term. Photo credit: Flickr/Randal Sheppard (CC BY-SA 2.0)

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