Upcoming Elections
Democratic Republic of the Congo Local and Regional – September 22, 2019 (delay highly likely)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 85.3 million
The DRC is scheduled to hold long-overdue local elections on September 22, 2019, elections that have been postponed numerous times since 2006. The Independent National Election Commission (CENI) has not yet begun preparations, making another delay almost certain.
The DRC’s December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu. When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi. The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country, but both have returned. The opposition holds that Kabila is still in control.
Lambert Lambe, Afrique Panorama: “Electoral process, local elections uncertain in September: No preparatory activity is being carried out less than one month from the date originally scheduled for the election of municipal councilors and sectors / chieftaincies.”
Stanis Bujakera, Reuters: “Congo intelligence service orders audit of interim government spending”
James Butty and Salem Solomon, VOA: “New DRC Cabinet Prompts Accusations that Kabila’s Regime Still Holds Power”
Botswana Parliamentary – October 23, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 2.2 million
Botswana, the world’s second-largest producer of diamonds, is a stable democracy with regular free, fair, credible elections. In 2018, President Ian Khama stepped down exactly 10 years after his inauguration, in keeping with the constitutional limit of two terms in office (his predecessor had done the same thing). Mokgweetsi Masisi, the former vice president, is filling the role of the presidency until after the elections, when the National Assembly will choose a new president. Khama’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – founded by his father, Seretse Khama, protagonist of the 2017 film A United Kingdom – has dominated politics since independence in 1966, but soon after leaving office, Khama left the BDP to form a new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front. The split could open up debate on actual policy, or it could devolve into a personal power struggle.
The National Assembly will elect a new president following the parliamentary elections.
AFP: “Botswana’s President Mokgweetsi Masisi has ordered general elections on October 23, as tensions rise with his estranged predecessor, Ian Khama, the man who put him in the top job.”
The Economist: “The battle of Botswana’s big men: Rare turbulence in one of Africa’s most successful states”
Siphosami Malunga, The Africa Report: “Botswana unravels: unmasking Africa’s democracy poster child: It seemed too good to be true. A diamond-rich, corruption-free, democratic, prosperous, and peaceful African country with a tradition of peaceful transfer of presidential power (the incumbent president voluntarily leaves office a year before the next general election). It was.”
Kenya Kibra By-Election – November 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.4 million
Kenya’s next general elections are not due until 2022. The August 2017 elections were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
Kibra constituency is located in Nairobi County and includes Kibera, often called “Africa’s largest slum.” The seat became open when incumbent Ken Okoth died of cancer in July 2019. Okoth was a member of Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
Mireri Junior, The Standard (Kenya): “The Jubilee National Elections Board (NEB) has nominated footballer McDonald Mariga as its candidate for the Kibra by-election.”
Guinea-Bissau Presidential – November 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 1.8 million
In March 2019, Guinea-Bissau finally held long-delayed legislative elections. The ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) won 47 out of 102 seats, but made deals with three smaller parties to form a coalition with 54 seats. Prone to coups (most recently in 2012), no elected leader has served a full term since independence from Portugal. The country remains in a political crisis, with President José Mário Vaz (known as Jomav) in a feud with his own party (PAIGC). Vaz plans to run for re-election. Sometimes dubbed “the world’s first narco-state,” it risks once again becoming a hub for drug traffickers.
AfricaNews/AFP: “Guinea-Bissau president José Mario Vaz announced on Thursday he would be seeking re-election in November.”
Updated September 4, 2019
Alberto Dabo, Reuters: “Police in Guinea-Bissau have seized more than 1.8 tonnes of cocaine hidden in flour bags in the biggest seizure in the country’s history, authorities said on Tuesday. Police said the drugs had arrived by sea in the country’s northwest. After a two-week intelligence operation, police arrested eight people: four Bissau-Guineans, three Colombians and a Malian, the force said.”
Tanzania Local – November 24, 2019 and General – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 55.5 million
Tanzania’s socialist Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and its predecessors have been in power since 1961. In the 2015 elections, deemed imperfect but credible by observers, John Magufuli won, and has since launched a crackdown on the opposition, media, civil society, and the private sector. The main opposition center-right Chadema, whose leader Freeman Mbowe recently spent nearly five months in prison on charges of sedition, currently holds 62 out of 384 seats in the unicameral National Assembly. Edward Lowassa, a former CCM prime minister who ran for president in 2015 as the candidate of Chadema and a coalition of other opposition parties, won 40 percent of the vote. Lowassa has since returned to CCM along with other opposition figures who have been bribed or bullied into crossing the aisle and joining the ruling party.
The Economist notes, “Today Tanzania is on the descent from patchy democracy towards slapdash dictatorship.”
Reuters: “Opposition lawmakers in Tanzania on Tuesday boycotted the swearing in of a ruling party lawmaker who replaced a fierce critic of the president following his expulsion from parliament. Tundu Lissu, who survived an assassination attempt in September 2017 when he was shot 16 times by unknown gunmen, was dismissed from parliament in June over absenteeism and ethical issues.”
James Magai, The Citizen (Tanzania): “Tanzania High Court rejects plea to stop swearing-in of ruling party MP-elect in Tundu Lissu case”
Jared Jeffrey, CNBC: “Op-Ed: Shot and stripped of his seat, Tanzania opposition MP Tundu Lissu keeps fighting”
Guinea Legislative – 2019 and Presidential – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.9 million
Elections in Guinea routinely see significant delays and have historically been surrounded by ethnic tensions and violence. President Alpha Condé, a former opposition leader who came to power in 2010 following a transition from military to civilian rule, is prevented by the constitution from running for a third term in the presidential polls due in 2020. However, he wants to change the constitution to allow him to do so (which Russia is encouraging because Russian companies have mining interests in Guinea). The terms of the current legislators expired in January 2019. Condé extended their mandates, and a new election date has not been set.
Eromo Egbejule, Al Jazeera: “Is another president attempting to cling to power in Guinea Conde’s administration hints at changing constitution, raising fears current presidential term limit could be scrapped.”
Burundi Presidential and Legislative – May 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.8 million
In 2015, President Pierre Nkurunziza ran for a third term, which critics said was unconstitutional. Nkurunziza’s decision sparked a political crisis. The opposition boycotted the election. Nkurunziza won, but the election was marred by violence and a coup attempt. In 2018, Nkurunziza said he would step down in 2020. Burundi’s 12-year civil war ended in 2005, but violence and authoritarianism have been on the rise. Many Burundians are nervous about the upcoming polls.
RegionWeek: “Burundi CENI issues the detailed 2020 electoral calendar. See what it entails here.”
Aaron Brooks, East Africa Monitor: “Can Burundi avoid crisis with next year’s presidential election?”
Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 108.4 million
In 1974, communist rebels deposed Ethiopia’s Emperor Haile Selassie and instituted the Derg (“Committee”), a Marxist military junta led by Mengistu Haile Mariam, which brought forth famines and a collapse of Ethiopia’s economy. It governed brutally, even genocidally. Following a civil war, the Derg was ousted in 1991 by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a coalition of ethnically-based rebel militias. The EPRDF took power and morphed into a coalition of four ethnically-based political parties: Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Amhara Democratic Party (ADP), Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), and Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM). In power, EPRDF instituted a controversial ethnically-based federalist system that has led to a current climate of tension and unrest.
EPRDF has held elections regularly, but aside from the 2005 polls, none were competitive or credible. In the last elections, in 2015, the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats. However, following three years of protests, the EPRDF chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister in 2018. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners, opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space, and holding free and fair elections in 2020. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles, including entrenched opposition to democracy within EPRDF. However, ongoing ethnic conflict could threaten Abiy’s reforms. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful.
Reuters: “A coalition of Ethiopian opposition parties on Tuesday threatened to boycott a national vote next year without changes to an electoral law they view as biased towards the ruling party.”
Morris Kiruga, The Africa Report: “Ethiopia passes new laws ahead of 2020 elections: Ethiopia’s parliament passed a new election law on Saturday 24 August ahead of the May 2020 national elections. It has raised some controversy, due in part to the lack of opposition consultation.”
Omar Mohammed, Reuters: “Ethiopia on Thursday granted its ethnic Sidama community a referendum in November on self-determination, with a view to creating the country’s 10th autonomous region, Fana news agency reported. Ethiopia’s nine existing regional states enjoy a degree of autonomy under which they are able to choose their official language and have limited powers over taxation, education, health and land administration.”
Burkina Faso General – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 19.7 million
Burkina Faso’s 2015 presidential and legislative elections – described as the most competitive in the history of the country – ushered Roch Marc Christian Kaboré of the People’s Movement for Progress (MPP) into the presidency with 53 percent of the vote. MPP, which is a member of Socialist International, won 55 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly.
The election removed Blaise Compaoré, who had come to the presidency in 1987 via a coup. Compaoré and his Congress for Democracy and Progress (CDP) won a series of multiparty elections between 1991 and 2015. Compaoré sought to change the electoral rules so he could run again in 2015, but a united opposition and civil society-led protests forced him out of office, with the military and then a transitional civilian government running the country until the elections.
The reform process continues, Burkina Faso’s democrats face many challenges, including corruption and the constant threat of terrorism. Nevertheless, Burkinabé civil society and media maintain a strong commitment to democracy.
Africa Intelligence: “Yacouba Isaac Zida positions himself for presidential election”
RFI: “Burkina: Former Prime Minister Isaac Zida reacts to Koutougou attack: A week after the attack on police officers and soldiers that killed 24 in Koutougou, the deadliest ever perpetrated against the armed forces of Burkina Faso, political reactions are emerging. On Sunday, the former prime minister of the transitional government in Burkina Faso, who has been exiled to Canada for three years, spoke in turn.”
Muhammad Dan Suleiman, Foreign Brief: “Periscoping Burkina Faso: a jihadist domino in the Sahel?”
Côte d’Ivoire Presidential and Legislative – October 31, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 26.3 million
This elections are taking place in a heated political context, and the personalities gearing up to contest the 2020 election have been fixtures in Côte d’Ivoire’s politics since the death of
Félix Houphouët-Boigny, who served as Côte d’Ivoire’s president from independence in 1960 until his death in1993. Until 1999, the country was stable and seen as a model of economic prosperity in the region, but two civil wars – first beginning in1999 and the second ending in 2011 – have created political instability, although the economy remains strong as Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s largest producer of cocoa beans. Houphouët-Boigny emphasized free market capitalism, and was a staunch ally of the West during the Cold War. However, he was an authoritarian – the only legal political party was his Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire – African Democratic Rally (PDCI-RDA).
Democratization began in 1990, and Houphouët-Boigny trounced Laurent Gbagbo and his socialist Ivorian Popular Front (FPI), which had been founded in exile in 1982, in the first multi-party elections that year. Following Houphouët-Boigny’s death, Henri Konan Bédié, then speaker of the National Assembly and a member of PDCI-RDA, became president after a brief struggle with then-Prime Minister Prime Minister Alassane Ouattara, a technocrat who had joined PDCI-RDA. Ouattara then took a job abroad with the International Monetary Fund and joined the liberal Rally of Republicans (RDR) party. Bédié was deposed in a military coup in 1999, which kicked off the first civil war.
However, Houpouët-Boigny’s development of cocoa farming planted the seeds of the conflict. He had a policy of encouraging immigrant laborers from neighboring Burkina Faso, and now Burkinabés, as these families are called, constitute 30 percent of the country’s population. In the mid- and late-1990s, politicians pushed the idea of Ivoirité, a concept that imagines national identity as fundamentally southern and Christian.
Gbagbo lost the 2010 election to Ouattara, but he refused to step down even though the international community recognized Ouattara’s victory. The surrounding violence led to 3,000 deaths and half a million displaced people. Gbagbo was arrested four months after the polls and charged with war crimes (although he was acquitted in 2019). In 2015, Ouattara won re-election in relatively peaceful and credible polls. Gbagbo and Bédié had a meeting in Brussels in July 2019 that sparked rumors about a possible alliance ahead of the 2020 elections.
Mohamed M Diatta, ISS Today/Daily Maverick: “Another political crisis hovers over Côte d’Ivoire: The African Union and Economic Community of West African States must prevent the country from being torn apart again.”
BBC (in French): “PDCI refuses to sit on electoral commission in Côte d’Ivoire: In a statement sent to the media, the party of former President Henri Konan Bédié announced his refusal to take part in the work of the new independent electoral commission.”
Central African Republic General – December 27, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 5.4 million
The Central African Republic (CAR) faces a humanitarian crisis and a crisis of governance. The country has been gripped by sectarian clashes since 2013, when Seleka (“alliance” in Sango, a local language) Muslim insurgents forced President François Bozizé from office and installed Michel Djotodia, a Muslim and a northerner. Exact estimates of the country’s religious breakdown vary, but CAR is more than 80 percent Christian and animist and about 10-15 percent Muslim, and southern Christians had held the presidency since independence from France in 1960. A group of southern Christians formed anti-Balaka (“invincible” in Sango) and clashes have been taking place since then. A 2017 peace agreement between the government and all but one of the armed militias did little to stop the violence. Fighting continues despite a new agreement signed in February 2019 that gave government roles to some of the insurgent leaders. The government has extremely limited – if any – power outside Bangui, the capital.
Djotodia’s presidency lasted for less than a year. A UN-backed transitional government took over until the 2016 elections, which were generally regarded as credible despite some fraud, and which led to a peaceful transition of power. Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a former prime minister and mathematics professor, won the presidential election in a runoff. His opponent, Anicet-Georges Dologuélé, also a former prime minister, conceded and urged his supporters to accept the results peacefully. Political parties are weak – a large chunk of the National Assembly are independents, as is Touadéra (although he had previously been a member of Bozizé’s National Convergence “Kwa Na Kwa” (KNK) party).
Russia has ramped up its political and military involvement in exchange for mining rights. Last year, three Russian journalists from a newspaper critical of the Kremlin were killed in the country while they were investigating the role of the Wagner Group, a Russian military contractor, in exploiting the CAR’s mineral wealth. A Russian national is Touadéra’s national security advisor, and the Wagner Group handles Touadéra’s personal security detail.
Mathieu Olivier, Jeune Afrique (in French): “Central African Republic: Jean-Serge Bokassa’s ambitions for the 2020 presidential elections: The presidential election is scheduled for the end of 2020, but the big maneuvers have already begun. While in Paris, the former minister confided in his ambitions and his family, while settling his accounts with his former ally, President Touadéra.”
Anna Nemtsova and Christopher Dickey, Daily Beast: “The CAR Murders: A Critical Cold Case in the New Cold War Points to ‘Putin’s Chef’: Evidence mounts that shows three Russian journalists investigating the mysterious Wagner mercenaries in Africa were set up by some of the same people who attacked U.S. elections.”
Jérémie Walanda, Afrique Panorama (in French): “The 2020 elections and the Russian presence in the CAR at the center of the Touadéra and Macron meeting”
Somalia Parliamentary and Presidential – due 2020 or 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 11.3 million (very rough estimate)
Somalia hasn’t held direct elections in 50 years at the federal level, and at the state level, only the de facto independent Somaliland holds one-person-one-vote polls. The other states have electoral colleges with clan elders as electors. Somalia has federal elections due in 2020 or 2021, and hopes to move toward a one-person-one-vote model. However, the August Jubaland elections are not direct (which is why they are not on our big map). Politics – and conflict – throughout Somalia is largely based on clans, but efforts have been made to move toward a politics based on political parties. The terrorist group al-Shabab remains a menace.
Omar Faruk and Max Bearak, Washington Post: “‘If I don’t pay, they kill me’: Al-Shabab tightens grip on Somalia with growing tax racket”
Somali Affairs: “Somali security forces detain Jubbaland’s security minister in Mogadishu”
African Union Mission in Somalia: “Somali media practitioners and human rights activists have agreed to conduct nation-wide public awareness campaigns on women participation in the 2020/2021 electoral process.”
Uganda General – February 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Partly Free this year)
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 40.9 million
President Yoweri Museveni has held power since 1986 and looks likely to seek a sixth term. Musaveni is seen as an ally to Western governments on counterterrorism issues, despite concerns about human rights and civil liberties.
Musaveni’s National Resistance Movement (NRM), an authoritarian nationalist party, was originally a militia involved in the struggle to topple the government in 1986. In the last presidential election in 2016 (which was marred by an uneven playing field and government use of state resources and security services for political purposes), Kizza Besigye of the main opposition center-right Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) won 35.6 percent, coming in second. NRM holds 293 out of 426 seats in parliament, and FDC holds 36 (other opposition parties hold 21).
AFP: “Uganda on Friday [August 30] denied a report that employees of Chinese telecom giant Huawei had aided a domestic spying operation targeting pop star turned opposition icon Bobi Wine. The Wall Street Journal reported this week that Huawei technicians helped Ugandan authorities use spyware to intercept Wine’s Skype and WhatsApp communications.”
Stratfor: “Huawei May Be Helping Governments in Africa Boost Their Power to Spy”
Mugume Davis Rwakaringi, VOA: “Study: Many Uganda Voters Fear Violence in Next Elections”
Sally Hayden, Irish Times: “‘I’m Bobi Wine.’ The Ugandan pop star taking on the president: Sally Hayden on the campaign trail with singer seeking to oust long-time leader Yoweri Museveni”
Updated September 3, 2019
David Malingha and Fred Ojambo, Bloomberg: “The Big Threat to Uganda’s President Is a 37-Year-Old Pop Star”
Sophie Neiman, World Politics Review: “Uganda Expands Its Internet Clampdown, Stifling the Last Space for Free Speech”
Sudan General – 2022
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 43.1 million
In April, nonviolent demonstrations ousted Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir. In June 2019, around the 30th anniversary of Tiananmen Square, Sudanese troops massacred citizens protesting the regime. In August 2019, military officers and civilian leaders reached an agreement to share power until elections in 2022.
Al Jazeera: “Sudan cabinet delayed as PM Hamdok studies list of nominees: Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok received the nominees list on Tuesday and has been mulling the candidates ever since.”
Zeinab Mohammed Salih, The Guardian: “Sudanese campaigners ‘rename’ streets after protesters killed in uprising. Pro-democracy movement unofficially changes names of public spaces and roads in Khartoum.”
AFP: “In post-Bashir Sudan, budding democracy a relief to the youth”
VOA: “Sudan’s ex-president Bashir charged with corruption”
Past Elections
Liberia By-Elections – August 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 4.8 million
When President George Weah, a former footballer, was elected in 2017, Liberia saw its first peaceful transition of power since 1944. The country holds elections to the Senate in 2020.
AFP: “Liberian President Georges Weah’s party won the seat of deputy in the by-election held on Wednesday in a district of Monrovia, the National Electoral Commission (NEC) announced on Thursday, after a campaign marked by pre-election violence. Abu Bana Kamara of the Coalition for Democratic Change was declared the winner after obtaining 49.2% of the votes against 38.9% for the opponent Tellia Urey.”
South Africa General – May 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 55.4 million
Al Jazeera: “Nigeria has pulled out of an African economic summit in South Africa, intensifying a diplomatic row after a series of deadly attacks on foreigners, including Nigerians, in South African cities.”
Yomi Kazeem, Quartz: “Xenophobic attacks on African migrants in South Africa have been escalated by fake news”
The Gambia Presidential – December 1, 2016 and Legislative – April 6, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 2.1 million
In December 2016, The Gambia began a remarkable transition to democracy. Citizens removed dictator Yahya Jammeh – who had come to power in a coup and ruled for 22 years – peacefully, via the ballot box, in a surprising result. Opposition candidate Adama Barrow won the presidency with the backing of a coalition of seven opposition parties. The country then began the process of establishing democracy and recovering from Jammeh’s brutal dictatorship.
Julie Turkewitsz, New York Times: “Now Streaming on YouTube: Confessions From a Presidential Hit Squad in Gambia”
Africa This Week – September 2, 2019
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Last Updated: September 13, 2019 by 21votes
September 2, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Africa on Mondays. Click the map pins.
Democratic Republic of the Congo Local and Regional – September 22, 2019 (delay highly likely)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 85.3 million
The DRC is scheduled to hold long-overdue local elections on September 22, 2019, elections that have been postponed numerous times since 2006. The Independent National Election Commission (CENI) has not yet begun preparations, making another delay almost certain.
The DRC’s December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu. When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi. The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country, but both have returned. The opposition holds that Kabila is still in control.
Botswana Parliamentary – October 23, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 2.2 million
Botswana, the world’s second-largest producer of diamonds, is a stable democracy with regular free, fair, credible elections. In 2018, President Ian Khama stepped down exactly 10 years after his inauguration, in keeping with the constitutional limit of two terms in office (his predecessor had done the same thing). Mokgweetsi Masisi, the former vice president, is filling the role of the presidency until after the elections, when the National Assembly will choose a new president. Khama’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – founded by his father, Seretse Khama, protagonist of the 2017 film A United Kingdom – has dominated politics since independence in 1966, but soon after leaving office, Khama left the BDP to form a new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front. The split could open up debate on actual policy, or it could devolve into a personal power struggle.
The National Assembly will elect a new president following the parliamentary elections.
Kenya Kibra By-Election – November 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.4 million
Kenya’s next general elections are not due until 2022. The August 2017 elections were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
Kibra constituency is located in Nairobi County and includes Kibera, often called “Africa’s largest slum.” The seat became open when incumbent Ken Okoth died of cancer in July 2019. Okoth was a member of Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
Guinea-Bissau Presidential – November 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 1.8 million
In March 2019, Guinea-Bissau finally held long-delayed legislative elections. The ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) won 47 out of 102 seats, but made deals with three smaller parties to form a coalition with 54 seats. Prone to coups (most recently in 2012), no elected leader has served a full term since independence from Portugal. The country remains in a political crisis, with President José Mário Vaz (known as Jomav) in a feud with his own party (PAIGC). Vaz plans to run for re-election. Sometimes dubbed “the world’s first narco-state,” it risks once again becoming a hub for drug traffickers.
Tanzania Local – November 24, 2019 and General – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 55.5 million
Tanzania’s socialist Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and its predecessors have been in power since 1961. In the 2015 elections, deemed imperfect but credible by observers, John Magufuli won, and has since launched a crackdown on the opposition, media, civil society, and the private sector. The main opposition center-right Chadema, whose leader Freeman Mbowe recently spent nearly five months in prison on charges of sedition, currently holds 62 out of 384 seats in the unicameral National Assembly. Edward Lowassa, a former CCM prime minister who ran for president in 2015 as the candidate of Chadema and a coalition of other opposition parties, won 40 percent of the vote. Lowassa has since returned to CCM along with other opposition figures who have been bribed or bullied into crossing the aisle and joining the ruling party.
The Economist notes, “Today Tanzania is on the descent from patchy democracy towards slapdash dictatorship.”
Guinea Legislative – 2019 and Presidential – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.9 million
Elections in Guinea routinely see significant delays and have historically been surrounded by ethnic tensions and violence. President Alpha Condé, a former opposition leader who came to power in 2010 following a transition from military to civilian rule, is prevented by the constitution from running for a third term in the presidential polls due in 2020. However, he wants to change the constitution to allow him to do so (which Russia is encouraging because Russian companies have mining interests in Guinea). The terms of the current legislators expired in January 2019. Condé extended their mandates, and a new election date has not been set.
Burundi Presidential and Legislative – May 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.8 million
In 2015, President Pierre Nkurunziza ran for a third term, which critics said was unconstitutional. Nkurunziza’s decision sparked a political crisis. The opposition boycotted the election. Nkurunziza won, but the election was marred by violence and a coup attempt. In 2018, Nkurunziza said he would step down in 2020. Burundi’s 12-year civil war ended in 2005, but violence and authoritarianism have been on the rise. Many Burundians are nervous about the upcoming polls.
Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 108.4 million
In 1974, communist rebels deposed Ethiopia’s Emperor Haile Selassie and instituted the Derg (“Committee”), a Marxist military junta led by Mengistu Haile Mariam, which brought forth famines and a collapse of Ethiopia’s economy. It governed brutally, even genocidally. Following a civil war, the Derg was ousted in 1991 by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a coalition of ethnically-based rebel militias. The EPRDF took power and morphed into a coalition of four ethnically-based political parties: Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Amhara Democratic Party (ADP), Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), and Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM). In power, EPRDF instituted a controversial ethnically-based federalist system that has led to a current climate of tension and unrest.
EPRDF has held elections regularly, but aside from the 2005 polls, none were competitive or credible. In the last elections, in 2015, the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats. However, following three years of protests, the EPRDF chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister in 2018. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners, opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space, and holding free and fair elections in 2020. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles, including entrenched opposition to democracy within EPRDF. However, ongoing ethnic conflict could threaten Abiy’s reforms. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful.
Burkina Faso General – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 19.7 million
Burkina Faso’s 2015 presidential and legislative elections – described as the most competitive in the history of the country – ushered Roch Marc Christian Kaboré of the People’s Movement for Progress (MPP) into the presidency with 53 percent of the vote. MPP, which is a member of Socialist International, won 55 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly.
The election removed Blaise Compaoré, who had come to the presidency in 1987 via a coup. Compaoré and his Congress for Democracy and Progress (CDP) won a series of multiparty elections between 1991 and 2015. Compaoré sought to change the electoral rules so he could run again in 2015, but a united opposition and civil society-led protests forced him out of office, with the military and then a transitional civilian government running the country until the elections.
The reform process continues, Burkina Faso’s democrats face many challenges, including corruption and the constant threat of terrorism. Nevertheless, Burkinabé civil society and media maintain a strong commitment to democracy.
Côte d’Ivoire Presidential and Legislative – October 31, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 26.3 million
Central African Republic General – December 27, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 5.4 million
The Central African Republic (CAR) faces a humanitarian crisis and a crisis of governance. The country has been gripped by sectarian clashes since 2013, when Seleka (“alliance” in Sango, a local language) Muslim insurgents forced President François Bozizé from office and installed Michel Djotodia, a Muslim and a northerner. Exact estimates of the country’s religious breakdown vary, but CAR is more than 80 percent Christian and animist and about 10-15 percent Muslim, and southern Christians had held the presidency since independence from France in 1960. A group of southern Christians formed anti-Balaka (“invincible” in Sango) and clashes have been taking place since then. A 2017 peace agreement between the government and all but one of the armed militias did little to stop the violence. Fighting continues despite a new agreement signed in February 2019 that gave government roles to some of the insurgent leaders. The government has extremely limited – if any – power outside Bangui, the capital.
Djotodia’s presidency lasted for less than a year. A UN-backed transitional government took over until the 2016 elections, which were generally regarded as credible despite some fraud, and which led to a peaceful transition of power. Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a former prime minister and mathematics professor, won the presidential election in a runoff. His opponent, Anicet-Georges Dologuélé, also a former prime minister, conceded and urged his supporters to accept the results peacefully. Political parties are weak – a large chunk of the National Assembly are independents, as is Touadéra (although he had previously been a member of Bozizé’s National Convergence “Kwa Na Kwa” (KNK) party).
Russia has ramped up its political and military involvement in exchange for mining rights. Last year, three Russian journalists from a newspaper critical of the Kremlin were killed in the country while they were investigating the role of the Wagner Group, a Russian military contractor, in exploiting the CAR’s mineral wealth. A Russian national is Touadéra’s national security advisor, and the Wagner Group handles Touadéra’s personal security detail.
Somalia Parliamentary and Presidential – due 2020 or 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 11.3 million (very rough estimate)
Somalia hasn’t held direct elections in 50 years at the federal level, and at the state level, only the de facto independent Somaliland holds one-person-one-vote polls. The other states have electoral colleges with clan elders as electors. Somalia has federal elections due in 2020 or 2021, and hopes to move toward a one-person-one-vote model. However, the August Jubaland elections are not direct (which is why they are not on our big map). Politics – and conflict – throughout Somalia is largely based on clans, but efforts have been made to move toward a politics based on political parties. The terrorist group al-Shabab remains a menace.
Uganda General – February 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Partly Free this year)
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 40.9 million
President Yoweri Museveni has held power since 1986 and looks likely to seek a sixth term. Musaveni is seen as an ally to Western governments on counterterrorism issues, despite concerns about human rights and civil liberties.
Musaveni’s National Resistance Movement (NRM), an authoritarian nationalist party, was originally a militia involved in the struggle to topple the government in 1986. In the last presidential election in 2016 (which was marred by an uneven playing field and government use of state resources and security services for political purposes), Kizza Besigye of the main opposition center-right Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) won 35.6 percent, coming in second. NRM holds 293 out of 426 seats in parliament, and FDC holds 36 (other opposition parties hold 21).
Sudan General – 2022
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 43.1 million
In April, nonviolent demonstrations ousted Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir. In June 2019, around the 30th anniversary of Tiananmen Square, Sudanese troops massacred citizens protesting the regime. In August 2019, military officers and civilian leaders reached an agreement to share power until elections in 2022.
Liberia By-Elections – August 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 4.8 million
When President George Weah, a former footballer, was elected in 2017, Liberia saw its first peaceful transition of power since 1944. The country holds elections to the Senate in 2020.
South Africa General – May 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 55.4 million
The Gambia Presidential – December 1, 2016 and Legislative – April 6, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 2.1 million
In December 2016, The Gambia began a remarkable transition to democracy. Citizens removed dictator Yahya Jammeh – who had come to power in a coup and ruled for 22 years – peacefully, via the ballot box, in a surprising result. Opposition candidate Adama Barrow won the presidency with the backing of a coalition of seven opposition parties.
Upcoming Elections
Democratic Republic of the Congo Local and Regional – September 22, 2019 (delay highly likely)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 85.3 million
The DRC is scheduled to hold long-overdue local elections on September 22, 2019, elections that have been postponed numerous times since 2006. The Independent National Election Commission (CENI) has not yet begun preparations, making another delay almost certain.
The DRC’s December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu. When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi. The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country, but both have returned. The opposition holds that Kabila is still in control.
Lambert Lambe, Afrique Panorama: “Electoral process, local elections uncertain in September: No preparatory activity is being carried out less than one month from the date originally scheduled for the election of municipal councilors and sectors / chieftaincies.”
Stanis Bujakera, Reuters: “Congo intelligence service orders audit of interim government spending”
James Butty and Salem Solomon, VOA: “New DRC Cabinet Prompts Accusations that Kabila’s Regime Still Holds Power”
Botswana Parliamentary – October 23, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 2.2 million
Botswana, the world’s second-largest producer of diamonds, is a stable democracy with regular free, fair, credible elections. In 2018, President Ian Khama stepped down exactly 10 years after his inauguration, in keeping with the constitutional limit of two terms in office (his predecessor had done the same thing). Mokgweetsi Masisi, the former vice president, is filling the role of the presidency until after the elections, when the National Assembly will choose a new president. Khama’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – founded by his father, Seretse Khama, protagonist of the 2017 film A United Kingdom – has dominated politics since independence in 1966, but soon after leaving office, Khama left the BDP to form a new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front. The split could open up debate on actual policy, or it could devolve into a personal power struggle.
The National Assembly will elect a new president following the parliamentary elections.
AFP: “Botswana’s President Mokgweetsi Masisi has ordered general elections on October 23, as tensions rise with his estranged predecessor, Ian Khama, the man who put him in the top job.”
The Economist: “The battle of Botswana’s big men: Rare turbulence in one of Africa’s most successful states”
Siphosami Malunga, The Africa Report: “Botswana unravels: unmasking Africa’s democracy poster child: It seemed too good to be true. A diamond-rich, corruption-free, democratic, prosperous, and peaceful African country with a tradition of peaceful transfer of presidential power (the incumbent president voluntarily leaves office a year before the next general election). It was.”
Kenya Kibra By-Election – November 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.4 million
Kenya’s next general elections are not due until 2022. The August 2017 elections were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
Kibra constituency is located in Nairobi County and includes Kibera, often called “Africa’s largest slum.” The seat became open when incumbent Ken Okoth died of cancer in July 2019. Okoth was a member of Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
Mireri Junior, The Standard (Kenya): “The Jubilee National Elections Board (NEB) has nominated footballer McDonald Mariga as its candidate for the Kibra by-election.”
Guinea-Bissau Presidential – November 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 1.8 million
In March 2019, Guinea-Bissau finally held long-delayed legislative elections. The ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) won 47 out of 102 seats, but made deals with three smaller parties to form a coalition with 54 seats. Prone to coups (most recently in 2012), no elected leader has served a full term since independence from Portugal. The country remains in a political crisis, with President José Mário Vaz (known as Jomav) in a feud with his own party (PAIGC). Vaz plans to run for re-election. Sometimes dubbed “the world’s first narco-state,” it risks once again becoming a hub for drug traffickers.
AfricaNews/AFP: “Guinea-Bissau president José Mario Vaz announced on Thursday he would be seeking re-election in November.”
Updated September 4, 2019
Alberto Dabo, Reuters: “Police in Guinea-Bissau have seized more than 1.8 tonnes of cocaine hidden in flour bags in the biggest seizure in the country’s history, authorities said on Tuesday. Police said the drugs had arrived by sea in the country’s northwest. After a two-week intelligence operation, police arrested eight people: four Bissau-Guineans, three Colombians and a Malian, the force said.”
Tanzania Local – November 24, 2019 and General – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 55.5 million
Tanzania’s socialist Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and its predecessors have been in power since 1961. In the 2015 elections, deemed imperfect but credible by observers, John Magufuli won, and has since launched a crackdown on the opposition, media, civil society, and the private sector. The main opposition center-right Chadema, whose leader Freeman Mbowe recently spent nearly five months in prison on charges of sedition, currently holds 62 out of 384 seats in the unicameral National Assembly. Edward Lowassa, a former CCM prime minister who ran for president in 2015 as the candidate of Chadema and a coalition of other opposition parties, won 40 percent of the vote. Lowassa has since returned to CCM along with other opposition figures who have been bribed or bullied into crossing the aisle and joining the ruling party.
The Economist notes, “Today Tanzania is on the descent from patchy democracy towards slapdash dictatorship.”
Reuters: “Opposition lawmakers in Tanzania on Tuesday boycotted the swearing in of a ruling party lawmaker who replaced a fierce critic of the president following his expulsion from parliament. Tundu Lissu, who survived an assassination attempt in September 2017 when he was shot 16 times by unknown gunmen, was dismissed from parliament in June over absenteeism and ethical issues.”
James Magai, The Citizen (Tanzania): “Tanzania High Court rejects plea to stop swearing-in of ruling party MP-elect in Tundu Lissu case”
Jared Jeffrey, CNBC: “Op-Ed: Shot and stripped of his seat, Tanzania opposition MP Tundu Lissu keeps fighting”
Guinea Legislative – 2019 and Presidential – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.9 million
Elections in Guinea routinely see significant delays and have historically been surrounded by ethnic tensions and violence. President Alpha Condé, a former opposition leader who came to power in 2010 following a transition from military to civilian rule, is prevented by the constitution from running for a third term in the presidential polls due in 2020. However, he wants to change the constitution to allow him to do so (which Russia is encouraging because Russian companies have mining interests in Guinea). The terms of the current legislators expired in January 2019. Condé extended their mandates, and a new election date has not been set.
Eromo Egbejule, Al Jazeera: “Is another president attempting to cling to power in Guinea Conde’s administration hints at changing constitution, raising fears current presidential term limit could be scrapped.”
Burundi Presidential and Legislative – May 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.8 million
In 2015, President Pierre Nkurunziza ran for a third term, which critics said was unconstitutional. Nkurunziza’s decision sparked a political crisis. The opposition boycotted the election. Nkurunziza won, but the election was marred by violence and a coup attempt. In 2018, Nkurunziza said he would step down in 2020. Burundi’s 12-year civil war ended in 2005, but violence and authoritarianism have been on the rise. Many Burundians are nervous about the upcoming polls.
RegionWeek: “Burundi CENI issues the detailed 2020 electoral calendar. See what it entails here.”
Aaron Brooks, East Africa Monitor: “Can Burundi avoid crisis with next year’s presidential election?”
Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 108.4 million
In 1974, communist rebels deposed Ethiopia’s Emperor Haile Selassie and instituted the Derg (“Committee”), a Marxist military junta led by Mengistu Haile Mariam, which brought forth famines and a collapse of Ethiopia’s economy. It governed brutally, even genocidally. Following a civil war, the Derg was ousted in 1991 by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a coalition of ethnically-based rebel militias. The EPRDF took power and morphed into a coalition of four ethnically-based political parties: Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Amhara Democratic Party (ADP), Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), and Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM). In power, EPRDF instituted a controversial ethnically-based federalist system that has led to a current climate of tension and unrest.
EPRDF has held elections regularly, but aside from the 2005 polls, none were competitive or credible. In the last elections, in 2015, the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats. However, following three years of protests, the EPRDF chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister in 2018. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners, opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space, and holding free and fair elections in 2020. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles, including entrenched opposition to democracy within EPRDF. However, ongoing ethnic conflict could threaten Abiy’s reforms. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful.
Reuters: “A coalition of Ethiopian opposition parties on Tuesday threatened to boycott a national vote next year without changes to an electoral law they view as biased towards the ruling party.”
Morris Kiruga, The Africa Report: “Ethiopia passes new laws ahead of 2020 elections: Ethiopia’s parliament passed a new election law on Saturday 24 August ahead of the May 2020 national elections. It has raised some controversy, due in part to the lack of opposition consultation.”
Omar Mohammed, Reuters: “Ethiopia on Thursday granted its ethnic Sidama community a referendum in November on self-determination, with a view to creating the country’s 10th autonomous region, Fana news agency reported. Ethiopia’s nine existing regional states enjoy a degree of autonomy under which they are able to choose their official language and have limited powers over taxation, education, health and land administration.”
Burkina Faso General – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 19.7 million
Burkina Faso’s 2015 presidential and legislative elections – described as the most competitive in the history of the country – ushered Roch Marc Christian Kaboré of the People’s Movement for Progress (MPP) into the presidency with 53 percent of the vote. MPP, which is a member of Socialist International, won 55 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly.
The election removed Blaise Compaoré, who had come to the presidency in 1987 via a coup. Compaoré and his Congress for Democracy and Progress (CDP) won a series of multiparty elections between 1991 and 2015. Compaoré sought to change the electoral rules so he could run again in 2015, but a united opposition and civil society-led protests forced him out of office, with the military and then a transitional civilian government running the country until the elections.
The reform process continues, Burkina Faso’s democrats face many challenges, including corruption and the constant threat of terrorism. Nevertheless, Burkinabé civil society and media maintain a strong commitment to democracy.
Africa Intelligence: “Yacouba Isaac Zida positions himself for presidential election”
RFI: “Burkina: Former Prime Minister Isaac Zida reacts to Koutougou attack: A week after the attack on police officers and soldiers that killed 24 in Koutougou, the deadliest ever perpetrated against the armed forces of Burkina Faso, political reactions are emerging. On Sunday, the former prime minister of the transitional government in Burkina Faso, who has been exiled to Canada for three years, spoke in turn.”
Muhammad Dan Suleiman, Foreign Brief: “Periscoping Burkina Faso: a jihadist domino in the Sahel?”
Côte d’Ivoire Presidential and Legislative – October 31, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 26.3 million
This elections are taking place in a heated political context, and the personalities gearing up to contest the 2020 election have been fixtures in Côte d’Ivoire’s politics since the death of
Félix Houphouët-Boigny, who served as Côte d’Ivoire’s president from independence in 1960 until his death in1993. Until 1999, the country was stable and seen as a model of economic prosperity in the region, but two civil wars – first beginning in1999 and the second ending in 2011 – have created political instability, although the economy remains strong as Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s largest producer of cocoa beans. Houphouët-Boigny emphasized free market capitalism, and was a staunch ally of the West during the Cold War. However, he was an authoritarian – the only legal political party was his Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire – African Democratic Rally (PDCI-RDA).
Democratization began in 1990, and Houphouët-Boigny trounced Laurent Gbagbo and his socialist Ivorian Popular Front (FPI), which had been founded in exile in 1982, in the first multi-party elections that year. Following Houphouët-Boigny’s death, Henri Konan Bédié, then speaker of the National Assembly and a member of PDCI-RDA, became president after a brief struggle with then-Prime Minister Prime Minister Alassane Ouattara, a technocrat who had joined PDCI-RDA. Ouattara then took a job abroad with the International Monetary Fund and joined the liberal Rally of Republicans (RDR) party. Bédié was deposed in a military coup in 1999, which kicked off the first civil war.
However, Houpouët-Boigny’s development of cocoa farming planted the seeds of the conflict. He had a policy of encouraging immigrant laborers from neighboring Burkina Faso, and now Burkinabés, as these families are called, constitute 30 percent of the country’s population. In the mid- and late-1990s, politicians pushed the idea of Ivoirité, a concept that imagines national identity as fundamentally southern and Christian.
Gbagbo lost the 2010 election to Ouattara, but he refused to step down even though the international community recognized Ouattara’s victory. The surrounding violence led to 3,000 deaths and half a million displaced people. Gbagbo was arrested four months after the polls and charged with war crimes (although he was acquitted in 2019). In 2015, Ouattara won re-election in relatively peaceful and credible polls. Gbagbo and Bédié had a meeting in Brussels in July 2019 that sparked rumors about a possible alliance ahead of the 2020 elections.
Mohamed M Diatta, ISS Today/Daily Maverick: “Another political crisis hovers over Côte d’Ivoire: The African Union and Economic Community of West African States must prevent the country from being torn apart again.”
BBC (in French): “PDCI refuses to sit on electoral commission in Côte d’Ivoire: In a statement sent to the media, the party of former President Henri Konan Bédié announced his refusal to take part in the work of the new independent electoral commission.”
Central African Republic General – December 27, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 5.4 million
The Central African Republic (CAR) faces a humanitarian crisis and a crisis of governance. The country has been gripped by sectarian clashes since 2013, when Seleka (“alliance” in Sango, a local language) Muslim insurgents forced President François Bozizé from office and installed Michel Djotodia, a Muslim and a northerner. Exact estimates of the country’s religious breakdown vary, but CAR is more than 80 percent Christian and animist and about 10-15 percent Muslim, and southern Christians had held the presidency since independence from France in 1960. A group of southern Christians formed anti-Balaka (“invincible” in Sango) and clashes have been taking place since then. A 2017 peace agreement between the government and all but one of the armed militias did little to stop the violence. Fighting continues despite a new agreement signed in February 2019 that gave government roles to some of the insurgent leaders. The government has extremely limited – if any – power outside Bangui, the capital.
Djotodia’s presidency lasted for less than a year. A UN-backed transitional government took over until the 2016 elections, which were generally regarded as credible despite some fraud, and which led to a peaceful transition of power. Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a former prime minister and mathematics professor, won the presidential election in a runoff. His opponent, Anicet-Georges Dologuélé, also a former prime minister, conceded and urged his supporters to accept the results peacefully. Political parties are weak – a large chunk of the National Assembly are independents, as is Touadéra (although he had previously been a member of Bozizé’s National Convergence “Kwa Na Kwa” (KNK) party).
Russia has ramped up its political and military involvement in exchange for mining rights. Last year, three Russian journalists from a newspaper critical of the Kremlin were killed in the country while they were investigating the role of the Wagner Group, a Russian military contractor, in exploiting the CAR’s mineral wealth. A Russian national is Touadéra’s national security advisor, and the Wagner Group handles Touadéra’s personal security detail.
Mathieu Olivier, Jeune Afrique (in French): “Central African Republic: Jean-Serge Bokassa’s ambitions for the 2020 presidential elections: The presidential election is scheduled for the end of 2020, but the big maneuvers have already begun. While in Paris, the former minister confided in his ambitions and his family, while settling his accounts with his former ally, President Touadéra.”
Anna Nemtsova and Christopher Dickey, Daily Beast: “The CAR Murders: A Critical Cold Case in the New Cold War Points to ‘Putin’s Chef’: Evidence mounts that shows three Russian journalists investigating the mysterious Wagner mercenaries in Africa were set up by some of the same people who attacked U.S. elections.”
Jérémie Walanda, Afrique Panorama (in French): “The 2020 elections and the Russian presence in the CAR at the center of the Touadéra and Macron meeting”
Somalia Parliamentary and Presidential – due 2020 or 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 11.3 million (very rough estimate)
Somalia hasn’t held direct elections in 50 years at the federal level, and at the state level, only the de facto independent Somaliland holds one-person-one-vote polls. The other states have electoral colleges with clan elders as electors. Somalia has federal elections due in 2020 or 2021, and hopes to move toward a one-person-one-vote model. However, the August Jubaland elections are not direct (which is why they are not on our big map). Politics – and conflict – throughout Somalia is largely based on clans, but efforts have been made to move toward a politics based on political parties. The terrorist group al-Shabab remains a menace.
Omar Faruk and Max Bearak, Washington Post: “‘If I don’t pay, they kill me’: Al-Shabab tightens grip on Somalia with growing tax racket”
Somali Affairs: “Somali security forces detain Jubbaland’s security minister in Mogadishu”
African Union Mission in Somalia: “Somali media practitioners and human rights activists have agreed to conduct nation-wide public awareness campaigns on women participation in the 2020/2021 electoral process.”
Uganda General – February 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Partly Free this year)
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 40.9 million
President Yoweri Museveni has held power since 1986 and looks likely to seek a sixth term. Musaveni is seen as an ally to Western governments on counterterrorism issues, despite concerns about human rights and civil liberties.
Musaveni’s National Resistance Movement (NRM), an authoritarian nationalist party, was originally a militia involved in the struggle to topple the government in 1986. In the last presidential election in 2016 (which was marred by an uneven playing field and government use of state resources and security services for political purposes), Kizza Besigye of the main opposition center-right Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) won 35.6 percent, coming in second. NRM holds 293 out of 426 seats in parliament, and FDC holds 36 (other opposition parties hold 21).
AFP: “Uganda on Friday [August 30] denied a report that employees of Chinese telecom giant Huawei had aided a domestic spying operation targeting pop star turned opposition icon Bobi Wine. The Wall Street Journal reported this week that Huawei technicians helped Ugandan authorities use spyware to intercept Wine’s Skype and WhatsApp communications.”
Stratfor: “Huawei May Be Helping Governments in Africa Boost Their Power to Spy”
Mugume Davis Rwakaringi, VOA: “Study: Many Uganda Voters Fear Violence in Next Elections”
Sally Hayden, Irish Times: “‘I’m Bobi Wine.’ The Ugandan pop star taking on the president: Sally Hayden on the campaign trail with singer seeking to oust long-time leader Yoweri Museveni”
Updated September 3, 2019
David Malingha and Fred Ojambo, Bloomberg: “The Big Threat to Uganda’s President Is a 37-Year-Old Pop Star”
Sophie Neiman, World Politics Review: “Uganda Expands Its Internet Clampdown, Stifling the Last Space for Free Speech”
Sudan General – 2022
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 43.1 million
In April, nonviolent demonstrations ousted Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir. In June 2019, around the 30th anniversary of Tiananmen Square, Sudanese troops massacred citizens protesting the regime. In August 2019, military officers and civilian leaders reached an agreement to share power until elections in 2022.
Al Jazeera: “Sudan cabinet delayed as PM Hamdok studies list of nominees: Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok received the nominees list on Tuesday and has been mulling the candidates ever since.”
Zeinab Mohammed Salih, The Guardian: “Sudanese campaigners ‘rename’ streets after protesters killed in uprising. Pro-democracy movement unofficially changes names of public spaces and roads in Khartoum.”
AFP: “In post-Bashir Sudan, budding democracy a relief to the youth”
VOA: “Sudan’s ex-president Bashir charged with corruption”
Past Elections
Liberia By-Elections – August 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 4.8 million
When President George Weah, a former footballer, was elected in 2017, Liberia saw its first peaceful transition of power since 1944. The country holds elections to the Senate in 2020.
AFP: “Liberian President Georges Weah’s party won the seat of deputy in the by-election held on Wednesday in a district of Monrovia, the National Electoral Commission (NEC) announced on Thursday, after a campaign marked by pre-election violence. Abu Bana Kamara of the Coalition for Democratic Change was declared the winner after obtaining 49.2% of the votes against 38.9% for the opponent Tellia Urey.”
South Africa General – May 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 55.4 million
Al Jazeera: “Nigeria has pulled out of an African economic summit in South Africa, intensifying a diplomatic row after a series of deadly attacks on foreigners, including Nigerians, in South African cities.”
Yomi Kazeem, Quartz: “Xenophobic attacks on African migrants in South Africa have been escalated by fake news”
The Gambia Presidential – December 1, 2016 and Legislative – April 6, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 2.1 million
In December 2016, The Gambia began a remarkable transition to democracy. Citizens removed dictator Yahya Jammeh – who had come to power in a coup and ruled for 22 years – peacefully, via the ballot box, in a surprising result. Opposition candidate Adama Barrow won the presidency with the backing of a coalition of seven opposition parties. The country then began the process of establishing democracy and recovering from Jammeh’s brutal dictatorship.
Julie Turkewitsz, New York Times: “Now Streaming on YouTube: Confessions From a Presidential Hit Squad in Gambia”
The Year Ahead: Africa
Guinea legislative (overdue – mandates of current legislators expired January 13 – date not set for new elections); Chad legislative (originally due in 2015 but have been delayed several times – unclear when they will. actually happen); Togo local by-elections (August 15); Namibia Oshakati East by-election (August 24); Zimbabwe by-elections (September Botswana parliamentary (October); Cameroon parliamentary (due October but delayed – new date not set); Mozambique presidential, legislative, provincial (October 15); Madagascar communal (due October 28 but postponed – new date not set); Somalia, Somaliland congressional and local (November 1, 2019 – tentative); Guinea-Bissau presidential (November 24); Namibia presidential and legislative (November 27); Mauritius legislative (December); Senegal local (December 1); Ethiopia parliamentary (May); Burundi presidential and legislative (May 20); Mali Parliamentary (due June but postponed indefinitely)
21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.
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Category: This Week Tags: Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central African Republic, Cote d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Somalia, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda