Upcoming Elections
Tunisia Presidential – September 15, 2019 and Parliamentary – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and this year, the country will hold the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Under Tunisia’s semi-presidential system, the president has broad authority over foreign and defense policy while the prime minister oversees domestic policy.
The upcoming elections look to be a close contest between the fractious secularist parties and the Islamist Ennadha Party (Machrouu Tounes, another secularist party, broke from Nidaa Tounes in 2016 and currently has 25 seats in parliament), with a number of independent candidates adding unpredictability to the contest. Twenty-six candidates are running for president and the election looks to be highly competitive, and the results far from certain. Leading candidates include Ennadha’s Abdelfattah Mourou, who comes from the party’s moderate wing; Prime Minister Youssef Chahed, a secularist who split off from Nidaa Tounes; media mogul Nabil Karoui, another secularist also split off from Nidaa Tounes; and technocrat Mehdi Jomaa, a former industry minister and acting prime minister.
Ennadha, which presents itself as a moderate, pro-democracy Islamist party but holds some retrograde views, won the first post-Ben Ali elections, but in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the secularist Nidaa Tounes won the most seats. In 2018, Tunisia held long-delayed municipal elections, which saw independent candidates win the most seats, followed by Ennadha.
President Beji Caid Essebsi of Nidaa Tounes, who became Tunisia’s first democratically-elected president in 2014, died at age 92 on July 25, 2019. The presidential election – originally scheduled for November – was moved to September 15.
Max Gallien and Isabelle Werenfels, Washington Post’s Monkey Cage: “Even though Tunisia has seen multiple elections since its 2011 revolution, this year’s presidential race is shaping up to be an exceptional one: hugely competitive and remarkably unpredictable.”
Stratfor: “The balloting will carry heavy regional significance because as the Arab Spring showed, Tunisia wields an outsized influence on its regional peers, and its results could very well dictate the long-term sustainability of its democracy.”
Amel al-Hilali, Al-Monitor: “The addition of Ennahda President Rachid Ghannouchi to the Tunis 1 candidate list for the Oct. 6 parliamentary elections and the nomination of Ennahda Vice President Abdel Fattah Mourou to contest the Sept. 15 presidential elections represent a shift in political strategy for Tunisia’s moderate Islamist movement. Both decisions were controversial within the movement, though ostensibly aimed at generating unity.”
Tarek Amara, Reuters: “Tunisia’s moderate Islamists are hoping the genial Beethoven fan they have nominated to run in next month’s presidential elections will break the mold in the Arab world by turning success at the ballot box into uncontested rule. Abdel-Fattah Mourou is a lawyer who has distanced himself from the more socially conservative positions of his Ennahda party in the past, has friendly relations with opponents and is known for a jokey manner.”
Reuters: “Tunisian police arrested presidential candidate Nabil Karoui on Friday [August 23] on what local media said were charges of financial crimes, but his party said it was a politically motivated attempt to exclude him from the election race.”
Kamailoudini Tagba, North Africa Post: “Tunisia’s electoral body, ISIE, has announced on the basis of article 27 of the constitution that Nabil Karoui will still run for the presidential elections despite his arrest Friday for money laundering.”
Iyad Yousef, Atlantic Council’s MENASource: “As the country prepares to hold its second presidential and parliamentary elections in October 2019, it is imperative that the US and the European Union (EU) play a greater role in sustaining Tunisia’s democratic transition. More specifically, after the two suicide attacks of June that rocked Tunis, the US and EU can better protect its democracy by enhancing the army’s counter-terrorism capabilities and security apparatuses.”
Updated August 28, 2019
Tarek Amara and Angus McDowall, Reuters: “Tunisia’s Defence Minister Abdelkarim Zbidi will amend the constitution if he wins September’s presidential election to end an ‘unreasonable’ division of power between the prime minister and the head of state, he told Reuters, a move rivals oppose.”
Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Israel – nicknamed the “startup nation” – is a vibrant democracy. In September, Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s center-right Likud was unable to form a coalition following April’s elections. While parties friendly to Netanyahu won more seats than those friendly to Netanyahu’s main rival, former IDF chief Benny Gantz, coalition talks collapsed over the issue of drafting ultra-Orthodox into the military. One of Likud’s coalition partners, Avgidor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, supported conscription – and refused to budge – while religious parties adamantly opposed it, highlighting growing tensions between secular and religious Israelis. Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset and called for new elections rather than giving Gantz the chance to try to form a government. Additionally, Netanyahu faces corruption charges. The elections are happening in the middle of U.S. President Donald Trump’s quixotic attempt to seal the “deal of the century” between Israelis and Palestinians.
Haaretz: “Israel’s Two Biggest Parties Going Strong but Neither Secure Majority, Election Poll Shows. Avigdor Lieberman still kingmaker in September 17 vote, according to survey released by Kan public broadcaster.”
Times of Israel: “Knesset speaker vows to ‘do everything’ to prevent third elections. Knesset Speaker Yuli Edelstein promises to prevent a third consecutive general election from being called, as polls forecast continued political gridlock after Israelis go to the polls for a second time this year on September 17.”
Felicia Schwartz, Wall Street Journal: “Israel’s Shadow War With Iran Widens as Netanyahu Faces Close Election Contest. Efforts to counter Iran reflect a balancing act for prime minister, but they risk saddling Israel with multiple conflicts.”
Chemi Shalev, Haaretz: “Trump’s Soft-pedal Outreach to Iran Is a Preview of Netanyahu’s Worst Nightmares: Three weeks before Israeli election, the U.S. president is undermining one of the prime minister’s main electoral assets.”
Tara Kavaler, Jerusalem Post: “Arab-Israeli parliamentarian Ayman Odeh, chairman of the Joint (Arab) List, made waves in a preview of an interview to be published Friday in the Yedioth Ahronoth daily, saying that under certain conditions he might partner in a ‘center-left government’ with Blue and White (Kahol Lavan) after Israel’s September 17 election….Arab parties have never been a part of a ruling coalition in Israel, which requires garnering support from at least 61 members in the 120-seat parliament, the Knesset.”
DW: “Israel’s Supreme Court banned two candidates from a far-right religious-nationalist party from running in the upcoming snap general elections in September. The judges barred Benzi Gopstein and Baruch Marzel, both prominent politicians in Jewish Power (Otzma Yehudit), or for inciting racism against Arabs.”
Demirkan Coker, Yale Politic: “Natan Sachs on Israel’s Elections, Anti-Solutionism, the Trump Peace Plan and 2020”
Afghanistan Presidential – September 28, 2019 (further delays possible)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Islamic Republic
Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, marred by violence and administrative problems. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election. Presidential campaign is gearing up right in the middle of peace negotiations between the United States and the Taliban.
Pamela Constable, Washington Post: “As U.S.-Taliban deal nears, Afghanistan’s Ghani hardens resolve to hold elections on time”
Farangis Najibullah and Freshta Neda, RFE/RL: “Biometrics To End Fraud In Afghan Election May Discourage Some Women From Voting”
Anisa Shaheed, TOLONews: “The Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan (IEC) on Tuesday [August 27] confirmed reports about a malfunction in biometric devices which will be used in the presidential election scheduled for September 28.”
Ayaz Gul, VOA: “Taliban Again Eyeing Power in Afghanistan? With a draft peace agreement between the United States and the Afghan Taliban circulating after 10 months of negotiations, the insurgent group is pushing a new media campaign boasting about what it describes as the ‘success’ of its past strict Islamic rule.”
Algeria Presidential – TBD (was set for July 4, 2019 but has been postponed indefinitely)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Algerian politics are dominated by Le Pouvoir, a small group of elite from the military and the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, aged 82 and unable to walk or talk, was going to run for a fifth term in the election originally scheduled for April, but tens of thousands of Algerians protested for two months, and Bouteflika resigned. The election was moved to July 4, but then the Constitutional Council cancelled the vote and has not set a new date. Protests continue. Protesters are demanding assurances that any new elections will be free and fair.
Ruth Michaelson, The Guardian: “Stalemate in Algeria six months after start of protests that ousted leader. Demonstrators say they will persist until military-backed government is replaced by civilian democracy.”
Iran Parliamentary – February 2020 and Presidential – May or June 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Theocratic Republic
Some analysts argue that “moderates” or “reformers” won Iran’s 2016 parliamentary elections, but the country’s opaque politics make it difficult to know for sure how to characterize the results. All candidates must be approved by the Guardian Council, which rejected thousands during the 2016 elections. Parliament is less powerful than the Supreme Leader and other institutions such as the Guardian Council, the judiciary, and the security services. The elections are happening in the context of escalating tensions with the United States.
Iran also has several exile opposition groups that seek regime change. Most prominently, the controversial MEK, a secretive group, operates out of a compound in Albania and is sometimes called a cult with a bizarre pastiche of Marxist and Islamist ideas, but nevertheless has ties with numerous high-level American and European officials. Exiled monarchists want to restore the Shah, who was removed in the 1979 Islamic revolution that brought the ayatollahs to power.
Saeid Jafari, Al-Monitor: “Iran’s Reformists scramble to avert defeat in key polls….Iran’s Reform Movement, which holds the parliamentary majority, was dealt a severe blow May 26. Ali Motahari, an independent candidate endorsed by the camp, lost the race for deputy speaker, a position he had firmly maintained for three consecutive years.”
Jonathan Broder, Newsweek: “Regime change or no regime change, the opposition groups remain deeply divided, which undermines their chances of ever taking power, Iran experts say. Over the years, several opposition groups have tried repeatedly to form a united front against Tehran, but their attempts have failed because of clashing histories, agendas and personalities.”
RFE/RL’s Radio Farda: “Security Forces In Iran Arrest 12 of 14 Activists Demanding Khamenei’s Resignation”
Iraq Provincial – April 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Date tentative – election commission has set it as their preferred date. Originally scheduled for December 2018, but delayed multiple times following controversialnational elections in May 2018 (the first since the defeat of ISIS).
Hiwa Shilani, Kurdistan24: “Displaced Iraqis argue that Iraq’s anticipated election law will prevent Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) who live in the Kurdistan Region and other parts of Iraq from voting in the provincial council elections.”
Stratfor: “Why Iraq Could Be the Next Regional Powder Keg”
Past Elections
Pakistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Partial Provincial Assembly – July 20, 2019 and General – July 25, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Twenty-one seats out of total 145 seats in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Provincial Assembly are up for election on July 20. The seats are for constituencies that were previously part of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), which merged with KP in 2018 (KP was called the Northwest Frontier Province until 2010). Since FATA did not have a provincial assembly, this marks the first time that voters in those areas will vote for provincial representatives.
Following the turbulent 2018 general election, former cricket star Imran Khan – seen as the military’s preferred candidate – became prime minister when his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) won the most seats.
Dunya News: “Making a history in KPK [Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa], as many as 19 newly-elected candidates from the newly-merged tribal districts took oath of their seats on Tuesday as the provincial assembly reconvenes after a break of nearly a month. This will complete the process for the first-ever, directly elected representatives from the erstwhile federally administered tribal areas (Fata) in the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) Assembly.”
Turkey, Istanbul Mayoral Re-Run, June 23, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Party Free in 2018) – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Turkey held local elections on March 31, but invalidated the results of the Istanbul mayoral election after Ekrem Imamoglu from the opposition Republican Party (CHP) won by a small margin. They re-ran the election on June 23 after Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) alleged fraud. The move did not pay off – Imamoglu defeated AKP’s Binali Yildirim once again, by an even bigger margin. The election took place in the context of Turkey’s slide into authoritarianism.
Human Rights Watch: “The Interior Ministry on August 19, 2019, removed the mayor of Diyarbakır, Adnan Selçuk Mızraklı; the mayor of Mardin, Ahmet Türk; and the mayor of Van, Bedia Özgökçe Ertan, accusing them of supporting terrorism. All three mayors are from the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP). The three mayors should be allowed to resume their posts immediately.”
Deniz Tekin, Ahval: “Kurds in Turkey’s southeast defiant after mayoral dismissals: For most people in Turkey’s southeastern province of Diyarbakır, the March 31 local elections represented an opportunity to express their defiance in the face of government policies toward the Kurdish political movement, yet months later they have been forced to take to the streets to defend their democratic rights.”
Hurriyet Daily News: “A delegation of four from the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) has paid a visit to main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. The visit came just a week after HDP mayors of eastern Diyarbakır, Mardin and Van provinces were suspended over alleged links to terror organizations.”
Diego Cupolo, Al-Monitor: “Istanbul mayor cuts funding to pro-AKP groups as city spending comes under scrutiny: The misuse of state funds has been a central issue in Turkey since this spring’s municipal elections. Istanbul’s new opposition Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who won both that vote and a do-over election on June 23, is now following through on campaign promises to audit expenditures and cut wasteful spending.”
Middle East This Week – August 27, 2019
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Last Updated: September 18, 2019 by 21votes
August 27, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore the greater Middle East and North Africa on Tuesdays. Click the map pins.
Tunisia Presidential – September 15, 2019 and Parliamentary – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and this year, the country will hold the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Under Tunisia’s semi-presidential system, the president has broad authority over foreign and defense policy while the prime minister oversees domestic policy.
The upcoming elections look to be a close contest between the fractious secularist parties and the Islamist Ennadha Party (Machrouu Tounes, another secularist party, broke from Nidaa Tounes in 2016 and currently has 25 seats in parliament), with a number of independent candidates adding unpredictability to the contest. Twenty-six candidates are running for president and the election looks to be highly competitive, and the results far from certain. Leading candidates include Ennadha’s Abdelfattah Mourou, who comes from the party’s moderate wing; Prime Minister Youssef Chahed, a secularist who split off from Nidaa Tounes; media mogul Nabil Karoui, another secularist also split off from Nidaa Tounes; and technocrat Mehdi Jomaa, a former industry minister and acting prime minister.
Ennadha, which presents itself as a moderate, pro-democracy Islamist party but holds some retrograde views, won the first post-Ben Ali elections, but in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the secularist Nidaa Tounes won the most seats. In 2018, Tunisia held long-delayed municipal elections, which saw independent candidates win the most seats, followed by Ennadha.
President Beji Caid Essebsi of Nidaa Tounes, who became Tunisia’s first democratically-elected president in 2014, died at age 92 on July 25, 2019. The presidential election – originally scheduled for November – was moved to September 15.
Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Israel – nicknamed the “startup nation” – is a vibrant democracy. In September, Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s center-right Likud was unable to form a coalition following April’s elections. While parties friendly to Netanyahu won more seats than those friendly to Netanyahu’s main rival, former IDF chief Benny Gantz, coalition talks collapsed over the issue of drafting ultra-Orthodox into the military. One of Likud’s coalition partners, Avgidor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, supported conscription – and refused to budge – while religious parties adamantly opposed it, highlighting growing tensions between secular and religious Israelis. Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset and called for new elections rather than giving Gantz the chance to try to form a government. Additionally, Netanyahu faces corruption charges. The elections are happening in the middle of U.S. President Donald Trump’s quixotic attempt to seal the “deal of the century” between Israelis and Palestinians.
Afghanistan Presidential – September 28, 2019 (further delays possible)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Islamic Republic
Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, marred by violence and administrative problems. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election. Presidential campaign is gearing up right in the middle of peace negotiations between the United States and the Taliban.
Algeria Presidential – TBD (was set for July 4, 2019 but has been postponed indefinitely)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Algerian politics are dominated by Le Pouvoir, a small group of elite from the military and the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, aged 82 and unable to walk or talk, was going to run for a fifth term in the election originally scheduled for April, but tens of thousands of Algerians protested for two months, and Bouteflika resigned. The election was moved to July 4, but then the Constitutional Council cancelled the vote and has not set a new date. Protests continue. Protesters are demanding assurances that any new elections will be free and fair.
Iran Parliamentary – February 2020 and Presidential – May or June 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Theocratic Republic
Some analysts argue that “moderates” or “reformers” won Iran’s 2016 parliamentary elections, but the country’s opaque politics make it difficult to know for sure how to characterize the results. All candidates must be approved by the Guardian Council, which rejected thousands during the 2016 elections. Parliament is less powerful than the Supreme Leader and other institutions such as the Guardian Council, the judiciary, and the security services. The elections are happening in the context of escalating tensions with the United States.
Iran also has several exile opposition groups that seek regime change. Most prominently, the controversial MEK, a secretive group, operates out of a compound in Albania and is sometimes called a cult with a bizarre pastiche of Marxist and Islamist ideas, but nevertheless has ties with numerous high-level American and European officials. Exiled monarchists want to restore the Shah, who was removed in the 1979 Islamic revolution that brought the ayatollahs to power.
Iraq Provincial – April 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Date tentative – election commission has set it as their preferred date. Originally scheduled for December 2018, but delayed multiple times following controversialnational elections in May 2018 (the first since the defeat of ISIS).
Pakistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Partial Provincial Assembly – July 20, 2019 and General – July 25, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Twenty-one seats out of total 145 seats in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Provincial Assembly are up for election on July 20. The seats are for constituencies that were previously part of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), which merged with KP in 2018 (KP was called the Northwest Frontier Province until 2010). Since FATA did not have a provincial assembly, this marks the first time that voters in those areas will vote for provincial representatives.
Following the turbulent 2018 general election, former cricket star Imran Khan – seen as the military’s preferred candidate – became prime minister when his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) won the most seats.
Turkey Local - March 31, 2019 and Istanbul Mayoral Re-Run, June 23, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Party Free in 2018) – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Turkey held local elections on March 31, but invalidated the results of the Istanbul mayoral election after Ekrem Imamoglu from the opposition Republican Party (CHP) won by a small margin. They re-ran the election on June 23 after Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) alleged fraud. The move did not pay off – Imamoglu defeated AKP’s Binali Yildirim once again, by an even bigger margin. The election took place in the context of Turkey’s slide into authoritarianism.
Upcoming Elections
Tunisia Presidential – September 15, 2019 and Parliamentary – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and this year, the country will hold the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Under Tunisia’s semi-presidential system, the president has broad authority over foreign and defense policy while the prime minister oversees domestic policy.
The upcoming elections look to be a close contest between the fractious secularist parties and the Islamist Ennadha Party (Machrouu Tounes, another secularist party, broke from Nidaa Tounes in 2016 and currently has 25 seats in parliament), with a number of independent candidates adding unpredictability to the contest. Twenty-six candidates are running for president and the election looks to be highly competitive, and the results far from certain. Leading candidates include Ennadha’s Abdelfattah Mourou, who comes from the party’s moderate wing; Prime Minister Youssef Chahed, a secularist who split off from Nidaa Tounes; media mogul Nabil Karoui, another secularist also split off from Nidaa Tounes; and technocrat Mehdi Jomaa, a former industry minister and acting prime minister.
Ennadha, which presents itself as a moderate, pro-democracy Islamist party but holds some retrograde views, won the first post-Ben Ali elections, but in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the secularist Nidaa Tounes won the most seats. In 2018, Tunisia held long-delayed municipal elections, which saw independent candidates win the most seats, followed by Ennadha.
President Beji Caid Essebsi of Nidaa Tounes, who became Tunisia’s first democratically-elected president in 2014, died at age 92 on July 25, 2019. The presidential election – originally scheduled for November – was moved to September 15.
Max Gallien and Isabelle Werenfels, Washington Post’s Monkey Cage: “Even though Tunisia has seen multiple elections since its 2011 revolution, this year’s presidential race is shaping up to be an exceptional one: hugely competitive and remarkably unpredictable.”
Stratfor: “The balloting will carry heavy regional significance because as the Arab Spring showed, Tunisia wields an outsized influence on its regional peers, and its results could very well dictate the long-term sustainability of its democracy.”
Amel al-Hilali, Al-Monitor: “The addition of Ennahda President Rachid Ghannouchi to the Tunis 1 candidate list for the Oct. 6 parliamentary elections and the nomination of Ennahda Vice President Abdel Fattah Mourou to contest the Sept. 15 presidential elections represent a shift in political strategy for Tunisia’s moderate Islamist movement. Both decisions were controversial within the movement, though ostensibly aimed at generating unity.”
Tarek Amara, Reuters: “Tunisia’s moderate Islamists are hoping the genial Beethoven fan they have nominated to run in next month’s presidential elections will break the mold in the Arab world by turning success at the ballot box into uncontested rule. Abdel-Fattah Mourou is a lawyer who has distanced himself from the more socially conservative positions of his Ennahda party in the past, has friendly relations with opponents and is known for a jokey manner.”
Reuters: “Tunisian police arrested presidential candidate Nabil Karoui on Friday [August 23] on what local media said were charges of financial crimes, but his party said it was a politically motivated attempt to exclude him from the election race.”
Kamailoudini Tagba, North Africa Post: “Tunisia’s electoral body, ISIE, has announced on the basis of article 27 of the constitution that Nabil Karoui will still run for the presidential elections despite his arrest Friday for money laundering.”
Iyad Yousef, Atlantic Council’s MENASource: “As the country prepares to hold its second presidential and parliamentary elections in October 2019, it is imperative that the US and the European Union (EU) play a greater role in sustaining Tunisia’s democratic transition. More specifically, after the two suicide attacks of June that rocked Tunis, the US and EU can better protect its democracy by enhancing the army’s counter-terrorism capabilities and security apparatuses.”
Updated August 28, 2019
Tarek Amara and Angus McDowall, Reuters: “Tunisia’s Defence Minister Abdelkarim Zbidi will amend the constitution if he wins September’s presidential election to end an ‘unreasonable’ division of power between the prime minister and the head of state, he told Reuters, a move rivals oppose.”
Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Israel – nicknamed the “startup nation” – is a vibrant democracy. In September, Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s center-right Likud was unable to form a coalition following April’s elections. While parties friendly to Netanyahu won more seats than those friendly to Netanyahu’s main rival, former IDF chief Benny Gantz, coalition talks collapsed over the issue of drafting ultra-Orthodox into the military. One of Likud’s coalition partners, Avgidor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, supported conscription – and refused to budge – while religious parties adamantly opposed it, highlighting growing tensions between secular and religious Israelis. Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset and called for new elections rather than giving Gantz the chance to try to form a government. Additionally, Netanyahu faces corruption charges. The elections are happening in the middle of U.S. President Donald Trump’s quixotic attempt to seal the “deal of the century” between Israelis and Palestinians.
Haaretz: “Israel’s Two Biggest Parties Going Strong but Neither Secure Majority, Election Poll Shows. Avigdor Lieberman still kingmaker in September 17 vote, according to survey released by Kan public broadcaster.”
Times of Israel: “Knesset speaker vows to ‘do everything’ to prevent third elections. Knesset Speaker Yuli Edelstein promises to prevent a third consecutive general election from being called, as polls forecast continued political gridlock after Israelis go to the polls for a second time this year on September 17.”
Felicia Schwartz, Wall Street Journal: “Israel’s Shadow War With Iran Widens as Netanyahu Faces Close Election Contest. Efforts to counter Iran reflect a balancing act for prime minister, but they risk saddling Israel with multiple conflicts.”
Chemi Shalev, Haaretz: “Trump’s Soft-pedal Outreach to Iran Is a Preview of Netanyahu’s Worst Nightmares: Three weeks before Israeli election, the U.S. president is undermining one of the prime minister’s main electoral assets.”
Tara Kavaler, Jerusalem Post: “Arab-Israeli parliamentarian Ayman Odeh, chairman of the Joint (Arab) List, made waves in a preview of an interview to be published Friday in the Yedioth Ahronoth daily, saying that under certain conditions he might partner in a ‘center-left government’ with Blue and White (Kahol Lavan) after Israel’s September 17 election….Arab parties have never been a part of a ruling coalition in Israel, which requires garnering support from at least 61 members in the 120-seat parliament, the Knesset.”
DW: “Israel’s Supreme Court banned two candidates from a far-right religious-nationalist party from running in the upcoming snap general elections in September. The judges barred Benzi Gopstein and Baruch Marzel, both prominent politicians in Jewish Power (Otzma Yehudit), or for inciting racism against Arabs.”
Demirkan Coker, Yale Politic: “Natan Sachs on Israel’s Elections, Anti-Solutionism, the Trump Peace Plan and 2020”
Afghanistan Presidential – September 28, 2019 (further delays possible)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Islamic Republic
Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, marred by violence and administrative problems. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election. Presidential campaign is gearing up right in the middle of peace negotiations between the United States and the Taliban.
Pamela Constable, Washington Post: “As U.S.-Taliban deal nears, Afghanistan’s Ghani hardens resolve to hold elections on time”
Farangis Najibullah and Freshta Neda, RFE/RL: “Biometrics To End Fraud In Afghan Election May Discourage Some Women From Voting”
Anisa Shaheed, TOLONews: “The Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan (IEC) on Tuesday [August 27] confirmed reports about a malfunction in biometric devices which will be used in the presidential election scheduled for September 28.”
Ayaz Gul, VOA: “Taliban Again Eyeing Power in Afghanistan? With a draft peace agreement between the United States and the Afghan Taliban circulating after 10 months of negotiations, the insurgent group is pushing a new media campaign boasting about what it describes as the ‘success’ of its past strict Islamic rule.”
Algeria Presidential – TBD (was set for July 4, 2019 but has been postponed indefinitely)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Algerian politics are dominated by Le Pouvoir, a small group of elite from the military and the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, aged 82 and unable to walk or talk, was going to run for a fifth term in the election originally scheduled for April, but tens of thousands of Algerians protested for two months, and Bouteflika resigned. The election was moved to July 4, but then the Constitutional Council cancelled the vote and has not set a new date. Protests continue. Protesters are demanding assurances that any new elections will be free and fair.
Ruth Michaelson, The Guardian: “Stalemate in Algeria six months after start of protests that ousted leader. Demonstrators say they will persist until military-backed government is replaced by civilian democracy.”
Iran Parliamentary – February 2020 and Presidential – May or June 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Theocratic Republic
Some analysts argue that “moderates” or “reformers” won Iran’s 2016 parliamentary elections, but the country’s opaque politics make it difficult to know for sure how to characterize the results. All candidates must be approved by the Guardian Council, which rejected thousands during the 2016 elections. Parliament is less powerful than the Supreme Leader and other institutions such as the Guardian Council, the judiciary, and the security services. The elections are happening in the context of escalating tensions with the United States.
Iran also has several exile opposition groups that seek regime change. Most prominently, the controversial MEK, a secretive group, operates out of a compound in Albania and is sometimes called a cult with a bizarre pastiche of Marxist and Islamist ideas, but nevertheless has ties with numerous high-level American and European officials. Exiled monarchists want to restore the Shah, who was removed in the 1979 Islamic revolution that brought the ayatollahs to power.
Saeid Jafari, Al-Monitor: “Iran’s Reformists scramble to avert defeat in key polls….Iran’s Reform Movement, which holds the parliamentary majority, was dealt a severe blow May 26. Ali Motahari, an independent candidate endorsed by the camp, lost the race for deputy speaker, a position he had firmly maintained for three consecutive years.”
Jonathan Broder, Newsweek: “Regime change or no regime change, the opposition groups remain deeply divided, which undermines their chances of ever taking power, Iran experts say. Over the years, several opposition groups have tried repeatedly to form a united front against Tehran, but their attempts have failed because of clashing histories, agendas and personalities.”
RFE/RL’s Radio Farda: “Security Forces In Iran Arrest 12 of 14 Activists Demanding Khamenei’s Resignation”
Iraq Provincial – April 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Date tentative – election commission has set it as their preferred date. Originally scheduled for December 2018, but delayed multiple times following controversialnational elections in May 2018 (the first since the defeat of ISIS).
Hiwa Shilani, Kurdistan24: “Displaced Iraqis argue that Iraq’s anticipated election law will prevent Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) who live in the Kurdistan Region and other parts of Iraq from voting in the provincial council elections.”
Stratfor: “Why Iraq Could Be the Next Regional Powder Keg”
Past Elections
Pakistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Partial Provincial Assembly – July 20, 2019 and General – July 25, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Twenty-one seats out of total 145 seats in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Provincial Assembly are up for election on July 20. The seats are for constituencies that were previously part of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), which merged with KP in 2018 (KP was called the Northwest Frontier Province until 2010). Since FATA did not have a provincial assembly, this marks the first time that voters in those areas will vote for provincial representatives.
Following the turbulent 2018 general election, former cricket star Imran Khan – seen as the military’s preferred candidate – became prime minister when his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) won the most seats.
Dunya News: “Making a history in KPK [Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa], as many as 19 newly-elected candidates from the newly-merged tribal districts took oath of their seats on Tuesday as the provincial assembly reconvenes after a break of nearly a month. This will complete the process for the first-ever, directly elected representatives from the erstwhile federally administered tribal areas (Fata) in the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) Assembly.”
Turkey, Istanbul Mayoral Re-Run, June 23, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Party Free in 2018) – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Turkey held local elections on March 31, but invalidated the results of the Istanbul mayoral election after Ekrem Imamoglu from the opposition Republican Party (CHP) won by a small margin. They re-ran the election on June 23 after Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) alleged fraud. The move did not pay off – Imamoglu defeated AKP’s Binali Yildirim once again, by an even bigger margin. The election took place in the context of Turkey’s slide into authoritarianism.
Human Rights Watch: “The Interior Ministry on August 19, 2019, removed the mayor of Diyarbakır, Adnan Selçuk Mızraklı; the mayor of Mardin, Ahmet Türk; and the mayor of Van, Bedia Özgökçe Ertan, accusing them of supporting terrorism. All three mayors are from the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP). The three mayors should be allowed to resume their posts immediately.”
Deniz Tekin, Ahval: “Kurds in Turkey’s southeast defiant after mayoral dismissals: For most people in Turkey’s southeastern province of Diyarbakır, the March 31 local elections represented an opportunity to express their defiance in the face of government policies toward the Kurdish political movement, yet months later they have been forced to take to the streets to defend their democratic rights.”
Hurriyet Daily News: “A delegation of four from the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) has paid a visit to main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. The visit came just a week after HDP mayors of eastern Diyarbakır, Mardin and Van provinces were suspended over alleged links to terror organizations.”
Diego Cupolo, Al-Monitor: “Istanbul mayor cuts funding to pro-AKP groups as city spending comes under scrutiny: The misuse of state funds has been a central issue in Turkey since this spring’s municipal elections. Istanbul’s new opposition Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who won both that vote and a do-over election on June 23, is now following through on campaign promises to audit expenditures and cut wasteful spending.”
The Year Ahead: Middle East
Egypt local (due 2019 – date not set – delays likely); Libya (international community wants presidential or legislative elections this year – delays highly likely); Algeria presidential (July 4 – cancelled); Israel snap parliamentary (September 17); Afghanistan presidential (September 28); Tunisia presidential and parliamentary (September 15 and November 17); Iraq provincial (November 16); Iran parliamentary (February 2020); Palestinian Authority legislative (elections overdue – new government says they aim to hold elections but no date set)
21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.
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Category: This Week Tags: Afghanistan, Algeria, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Pakistan, Tunisia, Turkey