Eurasia This Week – August 15, 2019

August 15, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Eurasia on Thursdays. Click the map pins.

Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation

Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.

In last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.

This year, a number of genuine opposition figures seek to run for local office, but authorities are blocking their access to the ballot. In response, citizens are holding a series of protests, resulting in a harsh crackdown, including the detention of prominent opposition figures such as Alexei Navalny.

Moldova Local – October 20, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.

The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.

Georgia Parliamentary – October 2020

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

Georgia holds competitive but imperfect elections. The eccentric oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili runs the show from behind the scenes, despite holding no official office. Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakasvili’s pro-European, pro-NATO United National Movement. Ivanishvili’s candidate, Salome Zurabishvili, won last year’s disputed presidential election. Georgian Dream did well in by-elections in May.

In June, a series of protests broke out over Russia, which occupies 20 percent of Georgia’s territory. The government’s brutal response could harm the coalition ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.

Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary – October 2020

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Kyrgyzstan began a halting transition to democracy following the Tulip Revolution of 2005, and following another revolution in 2010, the country switched to a parliamentary system and presidents were restricted to one term in office, in an effort to curtail presidential power and authoritarian backsliding. The current president, Sooronbay Jeenbekov, was elected in 2017, leading to Kyrgyzstan’s first peaceful transfer of power between two elected presidents. Jeenbekov had been backed by his predecessor, Almazbek Atambayev, but relations between the two have since soured. Atambayev staged a series of protests. The political climate remains tense ahead of next year’s parliamentary polls.

Ukraine Snap Parliamentary – July 21, 2019 (following presidential elections earlier this year)

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

Actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate largely centers on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.

Zelensky’s Servant of the People party previously did not have any seats in the Rada, but swept the elections to win an unprecedented parliamentary majority. More than half of the MPs are new.

Turkmenistan Presidential – February 12, 2017

Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic (Authoritarian)

Upcoming Elections
Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation

Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.

In last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.

This year, a number of genuine opposition figures seek to run for local office, but authorities are blocking their access to the ballot. In response, citizens are holding a series of protests, resulting in a harsh crackdown, including the detention of prominent opposition figures such as Alexei Navalny.

David Reid, CNBC: “Moscow court ruling won’t end the growing protests in Putin’s Russia, analysts say”

RFE/RL: “The head of the local chapter of Aleksei Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation says he has been removed from the list of registered candidates for the upcoming municipal elections. Aleksandr Shurshev and another candidate, journalist Maksim Kuzakhmetov, were removed from the list following a St. Petersburg court order, Shurshev tweeted on August 15.”

Hannah S. Chapman, Washington Post’s Monkey Cage: “In Moscow, citizens have been protesting for five weekends in a row. What does the rest of Russia think? Here’s why many Russians may not actually know what’s going on.”

RFE/RL Video: “Lyubov Sobol, a prominent Russian opposition figure, posted a video on Twitter showing armed, masked men barging into her office ahead of a sanctioned rally in Moscow on August 10, saying they were police coming to detain her. Sobol was one of several opposition candidates who were not allowed on the ballot for upcoming municipal elections, setting off a series of major protests.”

Rob Picheta, CNN: “Russian riot officer filmed punching woman in stomach at Moscow protests calling for fair elections”

Andrew Roth, The Guardian: “Putin’s 20 years in power producing new generation of protester”

Moldova Local – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.

The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.

Interfax-Ukraine: “Moldova going back to proportionate system of parliamentary elections”

Emerging Europe: “Since the coalition government was formed in June 2019, ending months of political deadlock, it has undertaken a wave of reforms that address several problems raised by election stakeholders. Most notably, the return to a proportional representation electoral system is expected to address a lack of voter education regarding the district boundaries for single-mandate seats and alleviate the significant burden placed on election officials in processing multiple ballots under the mixed electoral system.”

Institute for War and Peace Reporting: “Moldova Battles Hybrid Threat: Experts identify key areas of vulnerability, including Russian disinformation.”

Georgia Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

Georgia holds competitive but imperfect elections. The eccentric oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili runs the show from behind the scenes, despite holding no official office. Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakasvili’s pro-European, pro-NATO United National Movement. Ivanishvili’s candidate, Salome Zurabishvili, won last year’s disputed presidential election. Georgian Dream did well in by-elections in May.

In June, a series of protests broke out over Russia, which occupies 20 percent of Georgia’s territory. The government’s brutal response could harm the coalition ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.

Vera Gogokhia, OC Media: “Opinion | Proportional elections are an opportunity for Georgia; it’s up to young people to seize it”

Luke Coffey, TRT World: “What does Russia have brewing in Georgia?”

Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Kyrgyzstan began a halting transition to democracy following the Tulip Revolution of 2005, and following another revolution in 2010, the country switched to a parliamentary system and presidents were restricted to one term in office, in an effort to curtail presidential power and authoritarian backsliding. The current president, Sooronbay Jeenbekov, was elected in 2017, leading to Kyrgyzstan’s first peaceful transfer of power between two elected presidents. Jeenbekov had been backed by his predecessor, Almazbek Atambayev, but relations between the two have since soured. Atambayev staged a series of protests. The political climate remains tense ahead of next year’s parliamentary polls.

Victoria Panfilova, Vestnik Kavkaza: “Almazbek Atambayev has been arrested. What’s next?”

Ian J. Lynch, The Diplomat: “In a Country With Big Personalities, the Kyrgyz State Remains the Center of Power: Power and wealth are generated by and flow through the state.”

The Economist: “Kyrgyzstan’s democratic credentials—which were seriously eroded under Mr Atambayev—have been weakened further under Mr Jeyenbekov’s rule, as he jails opponents with almost as much abandon as Mr Atambayev did. Mr Jeyenbekov may be moving to consolidate his power and clear the field of rivals before parliamentary elections that are due to be held next year. Before then, there will be a lot more turbulence in Kyrgyzstan’s politics.”

Past Elections
Ukraine Snap Parliamentary – July 21, 2019 (following presidential elections earlier this year)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

Actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate largely centers on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.

Zelensky’s Servant of the People party previously did not have any seats in the Rada, but swept the elections to win an unprecedented parliamentary majority. More than half of the MPs are new.

Oleh Havrylyshyn, Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert: “The election of Volodymyr Zelenskyy as president sets the stage to finally define the national idea of Ukraine….In sum, the elections results suggest that Ukraine has a strongly democratic society and government espousing diversity in ethnic, linguistic, cultural, and regional dimensions.”

Taras Kuzio, New Eastern Europe: “Irrespective of the many challenges ahead, Ukraine seems to be on the verge of ending the post-Soviet chapter of its history.”

Jonathan Brunson, Slate: “The potential for another Ukrainian revolution festers beneath this year’s deceptively calm presidential and parliamentary elections. It would be the third one in 15 years, following the 2004 Orange Revolution and the 2014 Euro-Maidan uprising.”

Turkmenistan Presidential – February 12, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic (Authoritarian)

Julie Zaugg, CNN: “A hermit nation ruled by an egomaniac: Is Turkmenistan on the brink of collapse?”

Leonid Bershidsky, Bloomberg Opinion: “Quiet Tyrannies Like Turkmenistan Aren’t a Laughing Matter: John Oliver’s jokes aside, the country’s silly Guinness records are evidence that it isn’t seen as toxic, though it should be.”

 

The Year Ahead: Eurasia
Ukraine snap parliamentary (July 21); Russia local (September 8); Moldova local (October 20); Belarus parliamentary (November 17); Uzbekistan parliamentary (December 19); Azerbaijan local (December 27); Tajikistan parliamentary (March)

 

 

A rally for independent candidates to the Moscow City Duma, July 14, 2019. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Ilya V. Schurov (CC BY 4.0)

21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.

 

Comments

Share This