Asia This Week – August 16, 2019

August 16, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Asia and the Pacific on Fridays. Click the map pins.

Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China

A series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets on at least one occasion – has been taking place in Hong Kong all summer. The proximate cause was a controversial extradition bill, but even though the bill has been put on hold, protesters persist, calling for more democracy and free elections.

Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. The protest movement could boost the pro-democracy camp.

Taiwan Presidential and Legislative – January 11, 2020

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

Taiwan has a robust democracy. The two main parties are President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT, founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate. Tsai won the DPP presidential primary, and the KMT holds its own primary next month. Candidates include Terry Guo, Taiwan’s richest man, and Beijing’s choice, Han Kuo-yu, the populist mayor of Kaohsiung, a major port city in the south. The DPP currently controls the Legislative Yuan. Last year’s local elections swept the KMT back into many local offices that they had lost during the 2014 local elections – with some interference from China. China is expected to attempt to influence the upcoming elections as well.

The 2014 Sunflower Movement, in which a group of student activists briefly seized control of the Legislative Yuan to oppose greater economic integration with the mainland, continues to play a role in Taiwanese political debates. Sunflower activists inspired the founding of the New Power Party (NPP), meant to be a third option.

Sri Lanka Presidential – December 7, 2019 and Parliamentary – February 2020

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Sri Lanka is still feeling the aftershocks of a series of terrorist attacks over Easter 2019 and a 2018 political crisis in which President Maithripala Sirisena tried to dissolve parliament and remove Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe from office and replace him with former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was president from 2005 to 2015. Ultimately, Wickremesinghe was reinstated, but the crisis has deep roots and tensions remain high in Sri Lankan politics.

The two major parties are Sirisena’s center-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Wickremesinghe’s center-right United National Party. Rajapaksa left the SLPF in 2018 and now leads the populist Sri Lanka People’s Front/Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). In the last presidential elections, Rajapaksa surprisingly lost to Sirisena, who embarked on a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Rajapaksa had built up. Sirisena is eligible to run for a second term and could run again. His potential challengers include Wickremesinghe and one of Rajapaksa’s siblings (Rajapaksa is not eligible to run for president again due to term limits adopted during Sirisena’s presidency). Rajapaksa’s SLPP did well in local elections last year. Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice, and the upcoming elections could well determine whether it strengthens or deteriorates.

India, Haryana State and Maharashtra State Assemblies – October 2019 or November 2019 and Jharkhand State Assembly – November 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic

India has 29 states and seven union territories. Indian states are big – Maharashtra, whose capital is Mumbai, has 112 million people, Haryana 25 million, and Jharkhand 32 million. Coalitions headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently control all three state legislatures. The BJP won a massive victory in elections to the Lok Sabha, India’s national parliament, earlier this year, giving it a second term in power as the majority party able to govern without coalition partners, in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – did well in a series of state elections late last year but is reeling from the whiplash of defeat in the Lok Sabha polls. The state elections are happening in the context of a renewed push from Modi to institute “one nation, one election” – a proposal to hold state elections at the same time as elections to the Lok Sabha.

New Zealand Local – October 12, 2019 and Parliamentary – by November 21, 2020 (likely to be earlier)

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)

Burma Parliamentary – Expected late 2020

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Burma, also called Myanmar, seemed to be moving toward democracy following the  country’s first credible, relatively free elections in 2015, which swept Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) to power following decades of military dictatorship. Once held up by the global community as a paragon of moral authority for giving up her own freedom in the fight for democracy, Suu Kyi’s tenure as the country’s de facto leader has disappointed many. Burma still has hundreds of political prisoners, including many who were arrested after the NLD came to power. Ethnic conflicts continue between the dominant Burmans, who comprise roughly 60 percent of the population, and different minority groups. The crisis in Rakhine or Arakan State with the Muslim Rohingya, which some have called a genocide, has created 700,000 refugees in neighboring Bangladesh and 128,000 internally displaced people. During by-elections in 2018, the NLD won seven out of 13 seats, but lost five out of six in non-Burman areas.

Mongolia Parliamentary – June 2020

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

Mongolia has been a democracy since 1990 but is currently embroiled in political turmoil, and its safeguards of democracy are beginning to unravel. Politics are gridlocked due to hostilities between President Khaltmaagiin Battulga of the center-right Democratic Party (DP) and the government, appointed by the left-wing Mongolian People’s Party (MPP), which holds 65 out of 76 seats in the State Great Khural, Mongolia’s unicameral parliament. Battulga narrowly won in Mongolia’s first-ever presidential runoff 2017, and his DP only seven seats in parliament. Corruption has become a perennial problem, and has sparked protests, and many Mongolians are generally disillusioned with politicians.

Cambodia General – July 29, 2018 

Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy

Upcoming Elections
Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China

A series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets on at least one occasion – has been taking place in Hong Kong all summer. The proximate cause was a controversial extradition bill, but even though the bill has been put on hold, protesters persist, calling for more democracy and free elections.

Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. The protest movement could boost the pro-democracy camp.

Suzanne Pepper, Hong Kong Free Press: “Views from behind bars: can Hong Kong’s imprisoned activists make their voices heard?”

Andrew Higgins, New York Times: “He has been locked up for more than a year in a secluded island jail, but the bespectacled 28-year-old inmate, Edward Leung, is the closest thing Hong Kong’s tumultuous and leaderless protest movement has to a guiding light. He coined the protesters’ most widely chanted and, for China, most subversive slogan; he helped pioneer some of the movement’s rougher tactics; and he gave voice to the idea at the heart of Hong Kong’s struggle, now in its 10th week, to avoid becoming just another Communist Party-run Chinese city.”

NPR: “What Hong Kong’s Laws Say About When The Chinese Military Can Intervene: NPR’s Ailsa Chang talks with Martin Lee of the United Democrats of Hong Kong about when the mainland can intervene in Hong Kong affairs. He says military action must be requested by Hong Kong.

India, Haryana State and Maharashtra State Assemblies – October 2019 or November 2019 and Jharkhand State Assembly – November 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic

India has 29 states and seven union territories. Indian states are big – Maharashtra, whose capital is Mumbai, has 112 million people, Haryana 25 million, and Jharkhand 32 million. Coalitions headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently control all three state legislatures. The BJP won a massive victory in elections to the Lok Sabha, India’s national parliament, earlier this year, giving it a second term in power as the majority party able to govern without coalition partners, in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – did well in a series of state elections late last year but is reeling from the whiplash of defeat in the Lok Sabha polls. The state elections are happening in the context of a renewed push from Modi to institute “one nation, one election” – a proposal to hold state elections at the same time as elections to the Lok Sabha.

The Economist: “India Inc is growing disenchanted with Narendra Modi: In his second term, India’s prime minister is showing his statist side”

Manoj Kumar, Reuters: “Prime Minister Narendra Modi told the people of Jammu and Kashmir on Thursday [August 7] that elections would be held soon in the state for the local assembly, two days after government’s decision to end special status for the state and split it into two union territories.”

Aditi Malik and Shivaji Mukherjee, Washington Post’s Monkey Cage: “Why Kashmir may see increased violence after the revocation of Article 370: Here are the longstanding tensions — and potential new ones.”

Tim Sullivan, AP: “Modi clamps down on Kashmir, and India loves him for it

Al Jazeera: “Sonia Gandhi returns to lead India’s beleaguered Congress party: Party appoints Sonia Gandhi as ‘interim president’ as it searches for successor to her son Rahul, who quit in May.”

The Hindu Business Line: “Congress’ interim president Sonia Gandhi will soon convene meetings of party’s office bearers in election-bound Bihar, Haryana, Jharkhand, Maharashtra and Delhi.”

New Zealand Local – October 12, 2019 and Parliamentary – by November 21, 2020 (likely to be earlier)

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)

Brittany Keogh, Stuff: “Auckland local elections: Councillor candidates officially announced”

RNZ: “Paying voters? Idea floated to boost local body elections turnout”

Jo Moir, The Spinoff: “The three parties of power are taking their marks for the 2020 election”

Sri Lanka Presidential – December 7, 2019 and Parliamentary – February 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Sri Lanka is still feeling the aftershocks of a series of terrorist attacks over Easter 2019 and a 2018 political crisis in which President Maithripala Sirisena tried to dissolve parliament and remove Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe from office and replace him with former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was president from 2005 to 2015. Ultimately, Wickremesinghe was reinstated, but the crisis has deep roots and tensions remain high in Sri Lankan politics.

The two major parties are Sirisena’s center-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Wickremesinghe’s center-right United National Party. Rajapaksa left the SLPF in 2018 and now leads the populist Sri Lanka People’s Front/Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). In the last presidential elections, Rajapaksa surprisingly lost to Sirisena, who embarked on a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Rajapaksa had built up. Sirisena is eligible to run for a second term and could run again. His potential challengers include Wickremesinghe and one of Rajapaksa’s siblings (Rajapaksa is not eligible to run for president again due to term limits adopted during Sirisena’s presidency). Rajapaksa’s SLPP did well in local elections last year. Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice, and the upcoming elections could well determine whether it strengthens or deteriorates.

Al Jazeera: “Gotabaya Rajapaksa launches Sri Lanka presidential bid. Wartime defence chief promises to prioritise Sri Lanka’s national security following Easter Sunday bombings in April.”

Ahilan Kadirgamar, The Hindu: “Rajapaksa redux and a democracy in peril: The return of an authoritarian oligarchy in Sri Lanka could be stopped by a united stand of democratic forces”

MK Bhadrakumar, Asia Times: “Gotabaya’s electoral platform bears a striking resemblance to that of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He is also riding the wings of ‘cultural nationalism’ (read: Sinhala Buddhist chauvinism), which has lately assumed strident overtones of Islamophobia. He’s a platinum-grade populist, too.”

Merea Srinivasan, The Hindu: “Days after former Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa named his brother Gotabaya Rajapaksa as opposition presidential candidate, the battle over candidacy within the United National Party (UNP) has intensified, with no indication of a decision yet.”

Taiwan Presidential and Legislative – January 11, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

Taiwan has a robust democracy. The two main parties are President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT, founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate. Tsai won the DPP presidential primary, and the KMT holds its own primary next month. Candidates include Terry Guo, Taiwan’s richest man, and Beijing’s choice, Han Kuo-yu, the populist mayor of Kaohsiung, a major port city in the south. The DPP currently controls the Legislative Yuan. Last year’s local elections swept the KMT back into many local offices that they had lost during the 2014 local elections – with some interference from China. China is expected to attempt to influence the upcoming elections as well.

The 2014 Sunflower Movement, in which a group of student activists briefly seized control of the Legislative Yuan to oppose greater economic integration with the mainland, continues to play a role in Taiwanese political debates. Sunflower activists inspired the founding of the New Power Party (NPP), meant to be a third option.

Bill Birtles, ABC News (Australia): “After Hong Kong protests, is Taiwan the next flashpoint in our region?”

Ralph Jennings, VOA: “China’s Recent Squeeze on Taiwan Could Backfire”

Nick Aspinwall, The Diplomat: “Taiwan’s New Power Party Faces Crisis After Departure of Heavyweights: Two legislators and the party chairperson have quit the NPP, throwing the ‘third force’ party into turmoil.”

Burma Parliamentary – Expected late 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Burma, also called Myanmar, seemed to be moving toward democracy following the  country’s first credible, relatively free elections in 2015, which swept Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) to power following decades of military dictatorship. Once held up by the global community as a paragon of moral authority for giving up her own freedom in the fight for democracy, Suu Kyi’s tenure as the country’s de facto leader has disappointed many. Burma still has hundreds of political prisoners, including many who were arrested after the NLD came to power. Ethnic conflicts continue between the dominant Burmans, who comprise roughly 60 percent of the population, and different minority groups. The crisis in Rakhine or Arakan State with the Muslim Rohingya, which some have called a genocide, has created 700,000 refugees in neighboring Bangladesh and 128,000 internally displaced people. During by-elections in 2018, the NLD won seven out of 13 seats, but lost five out of six in non-Burman areas.

Richard C. Paddock and Saw Nang, New York Times: “Myanmar Military Uses Threat of Prison to Stifle Criticism Ahead of Elections”

Htet Naing Zaw, The Irrawaddy: “Myanmar Ex-General’s Presidential Dreams

E. Tammy Kim, Columbia Journalism Review: “Myanmar’s Other Reporters: The world cheered when two Reuters journalists were freed from prison. But who’s watching out for the rest?”

Mongolia Parliamentary – June 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

Mongolia has been a democracy since 1990 but is currently embroiled in political turmoil, and its safeguards of democracy are beginning to unravel. Politics are gridlocked due to hostilities between President Khaltmaagiin Battulga of the center-right Democratic Party (DP) and the government, appointed by the left-wing Mongolian People’s Party (MPP), which holds 65 out of 76 seats in the State Great Khural, Mongolia’s unicameral parliament. Battulga narrowly won in Mongolia’s first-ever presidential runoff 2017, and his DP only seven seats in parliament. Corruption has become a perennial problem, and has sparked protests, and many Mongolians are generally disillusioned with politicians.

Niels Hegewisch, International Politics and Society: “Yes, We Khan: Nationalism in Mongolia is in full bloom. But viral resistance seems to be growing — led by the heavy metal band ‘The Hu.’”

Past Elections
Cambodia General – July 29, 2018 
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy

AP: “Cambodia’s popular but disbanded opposition party said Friday its self-exiled co-founder will make his long-promised return to the country in early November. The Cambodian National Rescue Party, dissolved by court order in November 2017, said in an emailed announcement that Sam Rainsy and other party leaders will return to Cambodia on Nov. 9, which is the country’s independence day, marking when it obtained its freedom from France in 1953.”

Radio Free Asia: “Cambodia’s Minister of Interior Sar Kheng on Wednesday [August 14] warned the public not to fall victim to ‘propaganda’ from the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) and protest the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP), which he said had won the right to govern through legitimate elections.”

 

Protesters at Hong Kong Airport, August 2019. Photo credit: Flickr/Studio Incendo (CC BY 2.0)

21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.

The Year Ahead: Asia
Japan, provincial elections throughout the year; Nauru legislative (August 14); IndiaMaharashtra and Haryana states (October); Tuvalu parliamentary (September 9); New Zealand local (October 12); Hong Kong local (November 24); Marshall Islands legislative (November); India Jharkhand State (November); India Jammu and Kashmir (expected late 2019); Kiribati legislative (December); Sri Lanka presidential (December 7); Nepal by-elections (December 30); Taiwan presidential and legislative (January 11); Kiribati presidential (March); South Korea parliamentary (April 15); Niue parliamentary (May); Philippines village and youth council (May); Mongolia parliamentary (June)

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