Upcoming Elections
Bolivia General – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates.
Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS) currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.
The Real News Network: “Bolivia’s President Evo Morales Seeks An Unprecedented Fourth Term”
Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
The election will be competitive, and some polls have shown that the Conservatives would beat incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals if the election were held today. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.
Jen Kirby, Vox: “Canada’s ethics commissioner released a report on Wednesday that found Prime Minister Justin Trudeau violated ethics rules when he tried to pressure his former justice minister and attorney general to drop criminal charges against a Quebec-based company. The report dropped just as Canada is preparing for federal elections in October, potentially complicating Trudeau’s reelection bid.”
Vassy Kapelos, CBC: “Will the SNC-Lavalin scandal turn off voters? Will the ethics commissioner’s report matter in this election?”
Philippe J. Fournier, Maclean’s: “The rise and fall of Justin Trudeau’s political honeymoon: Four years of public opinion polling show a remarkably popular Trudeau government, undone toward the end by its own mistakes.”
Elise von Scheel, CBC News: “The front-lines: Where federal party leaders are concentrating their efforts for the coming campaign. Where the leaders are going in the next few weeks says a lot about what regions will decide the election.”
Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 (Primaries August 11, 2019) and Provincial – Throughout the year (next up: Santa Cruz on August 11, 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
On the presidential front: Incumbent Mauricio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.
In the primaries on August 11, 2019, Fernández and Kirchner won an unexpectedly high 47 percent of the vote, compared with Macri’s 33 percent.
Daniel Politi, New York Times: “President Mauricio Macri of Argentina was unexpectedly trounced in primary elections, suggesting that voters angered over his austerity measures and the country’s deep recession and soaring inflation are inclined to put their faith in his leftist opponents.”
Dion Rabouin, Axios: “Former Argentine President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner got that much closer to returning to the country’s presidential estate on Sunday, sinking the country’s currency by as much as 5%. Kirchner is running for vice president on a ticket with Alberto Fernández, and the pair received 47% of the vote in Argentina’s primary election, far more than expected. That bested current President Mauricio Macri and his running mate, Miguel Ángel Pichetto, who had 33%, and 6 other tandems.”
Benedict Mander, Financial Times: “Argentina elections: why investors believe Macri’s time is up: Peso collapse after humiliating poll defeat bodes ill for reformist leader”
The Economist: “Argentina faces the prospect of another default: An opposition triumph in primary elections prompts a vicious sell-off?
Cassandra Garrison and Nicolás Misculin, Reuters: “As election looms, Argentina’s Macri announces relief measures after years of spending cuts”
Ana Ionova, Foreign Policy: “Young Voters Care About Abortion Policy. Argentine Politicians Are Ignoring Them. The youth vote is becoming increasingly important in Argentina, but the leading presidential candidates are deliberately avoiding the issue that matters most to them.”
Daniel Politi and Ernesto Londoño, New York Times: “Leftist Atop Argentina Race Moves From Kirchner’s Shadow. Will His Policies Follow?”
Andres Martinez-Fernandez, American Enterprise Institute’s AEIdeas: “Macri’s ouster would have significant repercussions for both Argentina and the region, but perhaps more importantly, it signals the broader waning of Latin America’s shift toward pro-market, center-right leadership which his 2015 victory inaugurated.”
Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections.
Adriaan Alsema, Colombia Reports: “Colombia’s Inspector General said Wednesday that he has informed the prosecution and electoral authorities that 700 disqualified candidates are taking part in October’s local and regional elections.”
Dylan Baddour, The Atlantic: “This Country Is Setting the Bar for Handling Migrants: The conservative government of President Iván Duque in Bogotá is offering citizenship to Colombian-born babies of Venezuelan mothers.”
Uruguay General – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Nicknamed the “Switzerland of South America,” Uruguay is wealthier than the its neighbors and politically neutral. The three major parties are the center-left and social democratic Frente Amplio (Broad Front) coalition, the center-right National Party (PN), and the liberal Colorado Party (PC). FA holds a razor-thin majority in the General Assembly, with 16 out of 31 Senate seats and 50 out of 99 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. It has had a majority in the General Assembly and held the presidency since 2005. President Tabaré Vázquez, who was elected in 2014 and had also been president from 2005 to 2010, is not able to run this year because the constitution does not allow consecutive terms. Corruption allegations and slow economic growth could hurt FA’s chances in these elections. During the June 30, 2019 primaries – in which voters also express a preferred party – FA received only 23.6 percent of the vote, with PN winning 41.6 and PC picking up 16.8.
Luisa Horwitz and Luisa Leme, AS/COA: “Explainer: Uruguay’s 2019 Presidential Election”
Guyana Snap Parliamentary – November 2019 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil. In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation has delayed the process. Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese.
Starbroek News: “An election date has not been named but the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM) has started training Election Day staff. According to GECOM’s Public Relations Officer Yolanda Ward, over 2,200 persons were expected to attend training sessions at 20 locations in Georgetown yesterday.”
Starbroek News: “Hundreds of supporters from the opposition PPP [August 13] returned to the streets calling for an end to House to House Registration and for President David Granger, to announce a date for elections.”
Kevin Crowley, Bloomberg: “The World’s Newest Petrostate Isn’t Ready for a Tsunami of Cash. Guyana is investigating oil leases at a rocky political moment.”
Dominica Legislative – December 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit’s center-left Dominica Labour Party (DLP) has been in government since 2000. DLP lost seats following the 2014 parliamentary elections, but with 15 out of 21 seats still has a substantial majority. The main opposition United Workers’ Party (UWP) led by Lennox Linton has six seats. Home of the famous Boiling Lake, the world’s second-largest hot spring, rare birds, and natural beauty, the country has the potential to develop its tourism industry, but the lack of a major international airport has impeded growth. The debate over whether to build a new airport has been going on for decades, and is a major issue in the upcoming elections. Skerrit has been slow-rolling a decision on whether and how to build one, and some oppose the idea entirely.
Dominica News Online: “Electoral reform group calls for delay in elections, in keeping with Constitution, to ensure election reform”
Venezuela – Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Venezuela is currently in a political crisis following disputed presidential elections in May 2018. Incumbent Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez’s protege, was declared the winner, but the elections were widely denounced as illegitimate and the opposition mostly boycotted the polls. Because Venezuela’s constitution stipulates that the leader of the National Assembly (Venezuela’s only institution with a modicum of democratic legitimacy) becomes interim president if the office is vacant, many of the world’s free democracies recognized Juan Guaidó as interim president until the country holds new elections. Maduro continues to cling to power and his forces are violently cracking down on the opposition. The regime has deployed death squads. However, the opposition perseveres. National Assembly elections are not due until December 2020, but Maduro has threatened to hold early elections, which would likely be neither free nor fair and would deprive the opposition of the one institution it controls.
The country is also in a humanitarian crisis. The capital, Caracas, is one of the most violent cities in the world. Hyperinflation has resulted in 90 percent of Venezuelans being unable to afford sufficient food, and as many as 3.4 million people (more than 10 percent of the population) have fled since 2015.
AFP: “Threatening to bring forward parliamentary elections is the latest card played by Venezuela’s regime to put pressure on the US-backed opposition at the negotiating table, analysts say. The National Assembly is the only branch of government under opposition control, and elections are not scheduled until December 2020.”
AFP: “Venezuela’s opposition leader Juan Guaido warned President Nicolas Maduro on Tuesday that any attempts to bring forward parliamentary elections would end in “disaster” for the government.”
Amna Nawaz, PBS: “Why Guaido official believes regime change in Venezuela is non-negotiable”
Past Elections
Guatemala General, Second Round – August 11, 2019 (first round was June 16)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
These elections took place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.
In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.
Sasha Ingber, NPR: “Guatemalans have chosen Alejandro Giammattei, a conservative who once led the country’s prison system, to be their next president. Voter turnout in the runoff was low on Sunday in the small, Central American country. Preliminary results showed Giammattei won nearly 58% of the vote and that fewer than half of eligible Guatemalans had cast ballots, according to the country’s electoral tribunal.”
The Economist: “On the trail the president-elect told voters he does not want to be remembered as ‘one more son of a bitch.’ That would be a novel achievement in a country where faith in politicians long ago melted away.”
Claire Parker, Washington Post: “Four things to know about Guatemala’s new president-elect”
Bryan Wilensky, Atlantic Council’s New Atlanticist: “Guatemala’s Anti-Corruption Commission is Ending, But the Fight Will Go On”
Conor Finnegan, ABC News: “While Guatemala’s newly elected president said he cannot implement a migration deal his predecessor signed with the Trump administration, the State Department said Friday the two countries are working to implement it. The agreement would allow the U.S. to deport migrants seeking asylum in the U.S. to Guatemala if they passed through that country on their way to the southern U.S. border.”
Brazil General – October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Last year’s elections in Brazil swept controversial right-wing populist firebrand Jair Bolsonaro into the presidency, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country.
Amanda Taub and Max Fisher, New York Times: “How YouTube Misinformation Resolved a WhatsApp Mystery in Brazil….We landed in Brazil hoping to unravel this seeming mystery. What had really happened there, why were so many observers crediting it to WhatsApp and what did it mean about the power of social media to distort or upend democracies worldwide?”
Paraguay General – April 22, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
President Mario Abdo Benítez won the 2018 presidential elections with 48.96 percent of the vote. Abdo’s conservative Colorado Party, which has dominated Paraguay’s politics for a long time, holds a majority in the lower house of Paraguay’s bicameral National Congress, and a plurality in the upper house. Some lawmakers have sought to impeach Abdo following a controversial deal with Brazil.
The Economist: “A secret hydropower deal with Brazil causes a political crisis in Paraguay: The stage is set for a new Itaipu dam agreement between the two countries”
Honduras – November 26, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Annette Lin, Foreign Policy: “Honduran Protesters Have Little Cause for Hope: Even if President Juan Orlando Hernández were to leave office, the country’s problems would persist.”
Americas This Week – August 17, 2019
Leave a Comment
Last Updated: August 27, 2019 by 21votes
August 17, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore the Americas on Saturdays. Click the map pins.
Bolivia General – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates.
Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS) currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.
The Real News Network: “Bolivia’s President Evo Morales Seeks An Unprecedented Fourth Term”
Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
The election will be competitive, and some polls have shown that the Conservatives would beat incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals if the election were held today. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.
Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
On the presidential front: Incumbent Mauricio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.
In the primaries on August 11, 2019, Fernández and Kirchner won an unexpectedly high 47 percent of the vote, compared with Macri’s 33 percent.
Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections.
Uruguay General – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Nicknamed the “Switzerland of South America,” Uruguay is wealthier than the its neighbors and politically neutral. The three major parties are the center-left and social democratic Frente Amplio (Broad Front) coalition, the center-right National Party (PN), and the liberal Colorado Party (PC). FA holds a razor-thin majority in the General Assembly, with 16 out of 31 Senate seats and 50 out of 99 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. It has had a majority in the General Assembly and held the presidency since 2005. President Tabaré Vázquez, who was elected in 2014 and had also been president from 2005 to 2010, is not able to run this year because the constitution does not allow consecutive terms. Corruption allegations and slow economic growth could hurt FA’s chances in these elections. During the June 30, 2019 primaries – in which voters also express a preferred party – FA received only 23.6 percent of the vote, with PN winning 41.6 and PC picking up 16.8.
Guyana Snap Parliamentary – November 2019 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil. In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation has delayed the process. Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese.
Dominica Legislative – December 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit’s center-left Dominica Labour Party (DLP) has been in government since 2000. DLP lost seats following the 2014 parliamentary elections, but with 15 out of 21 seats still has a substantial majority. The main opposition United Workers’ Party (UWP) led by Lennox Linton has six seats. Home of the famous Boiling Lake, the world’s second-largest hot spring, rare birds, and natural beauty, the country has the potential to develop its tourism industry, but the lack of a major international airport has impeded growth. The debate over whether to build a new airport has been going on for decades, and is a major issue in the upcoming elections. Skerrit has been slow-rolling a decision on whether and how to build one, and some oppose the idea entirely.
Venezuela – Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Venezuela is currently in a political crisis following disputed presidential elections in May 2018. Incumbent Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez’s protege, was declared the winner, but the elections were widely denounced as illegitimate and the opposition mostly boycotted the polls. Because Venezuela’s constitution stipulates that the leader of the National Assembly (Venezuela’s only institution with a modicum of democratic legitimacy) becomes interim president if the office is vacant, many of the world’s free democracies recognized Juan Guaidó as interim president until the country holds new elections. Maduro continues to cling to power and his forces are violently cracking down on the opposition. The regime has deployed death squads. However, the opposition perseveres. National Assembly elections are not due until December 2020, but Maduro has threatened to hold early elections, which would likely be neither free nor fair and would deprive the opposition of the one institution it controls.
The country is also in a humanitarian crisis. The capital, Caracas, is one of the most violent cities in the world. Hyperinflation has resulted in 90 percent of Venezuelans being unable to afford sufficient food, and as many as 3.4 million people (more than 10 percent of the population) have fled since 2015.
Guatemala General, Second Round – August 11, 2019 (first round was June 16)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
These elections took place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.
In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.
Brazil General – October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Last year’s elections in Brazil swept controversial right-wing populist firebrand Jair Bolsonaro into the presidency, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country.
Paraguay General – April 22, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
President Mario Abdo Benítez won the 2018 presidential elections with 48.96 percent of the vote. Abdo’s conservative Colorado Party, which has dominated Paraguay’s politics for a long time, holds a majority in the lower house of Paraguay’s bicameral National Congress, and a plurality in the upper house. Some lawmakers have sought to impeach Abdo following a controversial deal with Brazil.
Honduras – November 26, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Upcoming Elections
Bolivia General – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates.
Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS) currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.
The Real News Network: “Bolivia’s President Evo Morales Seeks An Unprecedented Fourth Term”
Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
The election will be competitive, and some polls have shown that the Conservatives would beat incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals if the election were held today. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.
Jen Kirby, Vox: “Canada’s ethics commissioner released a report on Wednesday that found Prime Minister Justin Trudeau violated ethics rules when he tried to pressure his former justice minister and attorney general to drop criminal charges against a Quebec-based company. The report dropped just as Canada is preparing for federal elections in October, potentially complicating Trudeau’s reelection bid.”
Vassy Kapelos, CBC: “Will the SNC-Lavalin scandal turn off voters? Will the ethics commissioner’s report matter in this election?”
Philippe J. Fournier, Maclean’s: “The rise and fall of Justin Trudeau’s political honeymoon: Four years of public opinion polling show a remarkably popular Trudeau government, undone toward the end by its own mistakes.”
Elise von Scheel, CBC News: “The front-lines: Where federal party leaders are concentrating their efforts for the coming campaign. Where the leaders are going in the next few weeks says a lot about what regions will decide the election.”
Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 (Primaries August 11, 2019) and Provincial – Throughout the year (next up: Santa Cruz on August 11, 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
On the presidential front: Incumbent Mauricio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.
In the primaries on August 11, 2019, Fernández and Kirchner won an unexpectedly high 47 percent of the vote, compared with Macri’s 33 percent.
Daniel Politi, New York Times: “President Mauricio Macri of Argentina was unexpectedly trounced in primary elections, suggesting that voters angered over his austerity measures and the country’s deep recession and soaring inflation are inclined to put their faith in his leftist opponents.”
Dion Rabouin, Axios: “Former Argentine President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner got that much closer to returning to the country’s presidential estate on Sunday, sinking the country’s currency by as much as 5%. Kirchner is running for vice president on a ticket with Alberto Fernández, and the pair received 47% of the vote in Argentina’s primary election, far more than expected. That bested current President Mauricio Macri and his running mate, Miguel Ángel Pichetto, who had 33%, and 6 other tandems.”
Benedict Mander, Financial Times: “Argentina elections: why investors believe Macri’s time is up: Peso collapse after humiliating poll defeat bodes ill for reformist leader”
The Economist: “Argentina faces the prospect of another default: An opposition triumph in primary elections prompts a vicious sell-off?
Cassandra Garrison and Nicolás Misculin, Reuters: “As election looms, Argentina’s Macri announces relief measures after years of spending cuts”
Ana Ionova, Foreign Policy: “Young Voters Care About Abortion Policy. Argentine Politicians Are Ignoring Them. The youth vote is becoming increasingly important in Argentina, but the leading presidential candidates are deliberately avoiding the issue that matters most to them.”
Daniel Politi and Ernesto Londoño, New York Times: “Leftist Atop Argentina Race Moves From Kirchner’s Shadow. Will His Policies Follow?”
Andres Martinez-Fernandez, American Enterprise Institute’s AEIdeas: “Macri’s ouster would have significant repercussions for both Argentina and the region, but perhaps more importantly, it signals the broader waning of Latin America’s shift toward pro-market, center-right leadership which his 2015 victory inaugurated.”
Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections.
Adriaan Alsema, Colombia Reports: “Colombia’s Inspector General said Wednesday that he has informed the prosecution and electoral authorities that 700 disqualified candidates are taking part in October’s local and regional elections.”
Dylan Baddour, The Atlantic: “This Country Is Setting the Bar for Handling Migrants: The conservative government of President Iván Duque in Bogotá is offering citizenship to Colombian-born babies of Venezuelan mothers.”
Uruguay General – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Nicknamed the “Switzerland of South America,” Uruguay is wealthier than the its neighbors and politically neutral. The three major parties are the center-left and social democratic Frente Amplio (Broad Front) coalition, the center-right National Party (PN), and the liberal Colorado Party (PC). FA holds a razor-thin majority in the General Assembly, with 16 out of 31 Senate seats and 50 out of 99 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. It has had a majority in the General Assembly and held the presidency since 2005. President Tabaré Vázquez, who was elected in 2014 and had also been president from 2005 to 2010, is not able to run this year because the constitution does not allow consecutive terms. Corruption allegations and slow economic growth could hurt FA’s chances in these elections. During the June 30, 2019 primaries – in which voters also express a preferred party – FA received only 23.6 percent of the vote, with PN winning 41.6 and PC picking up 16.8.
Luisa Horwitz and Luisa Leme, AS/COA: “Explainer: Uruguay’s 2019 Presidential Election”
Guyana Snap Parliamentary – November 2019 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil. In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation has delayed the process. Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese.
Starbroek News: “An election date has not been named but the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM) has started training Election Day staff. According to GECOM’s Public Relations Officer Yolanda Ward, over 2,200 persons were expected to attend training sessions at 20 locations in Georgetown yesterday.”
Starbroek News: “Hundreds of supporters from the opposition PPP [August 13] returned to the streets calling for an end to House to House Registration and for President David Granger, to announce a date for elections.”
Kevin Crowley, Bloomberg: “The World’s Newest Petrostate Isn’t Ready for a Tsunami of Cash. Guyana is investigating oil leases at a rocky political moment.”
Dominica Legislative – December 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit’s center-left Dominica Labour Party (DLP) has been in government since 2000. DLP lost seats following the 2014 parliamentary elections, but with 15 out of 21 seats still has a substantial majority. The main opposition United Workers’ Party (UWP) led by Lennox Linton has six seats. Home of the famous Boiling Lake, the world’s second-largest hot spring, rare birds, and natural beauty, the country has the potential to develop its tourism industry, but the lack of a major international airport has impeded growth. The debate over whether to build a new airport has been going on for decades, and is a major issue in the upcoming elections. Skerrit has been slow-rolling a decision on whether and how to build one, and some oppose the idea entirely.
Dominica News Online: “Electoral reform group calls for delay in elections, in keeping with Constitution, to ensure election reform”
Venezuela – Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Venezuela is currently in a political crisis following disputed presidential elections in May 2018. Incumbent Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez’s protege, was declared the winner, but the elections were widely denounced as illegitimate and the opposition mostly boycotted the polls. Because Venezuela’s constitution stipulates that the leader of the National Assembly (Venezuela’s only institution with a modicum of democratic legitimacy) becomes interim president if the office is vacant, many of the world’s free democracies recognized Juan Guaidó as interim president until the country holds new elections. Maduro continues to cling to power and his forces are violently cracking down on the opposition. The regime has deployed death squads. However, the opposition perseveres. National Assembly elections are not due until December 2020, but Maduro has threatened to hold early elections, which would likely be neither free nor fair and would deprive the opposition of the one institution it controls.
The country is also in a humanitarian crisis. The capital, Caracas, is one of the most violent cities in the world. Hyperinflation has resulted in 90 percent of Venezuelans being unable to afford sufficient food, and as many as 3.4 million people (more than 10 percent of the population) have fled since 2015.
AFP: “Threatening to bring forward parliamentary elections is the latest card played by Venezuela’s regime to put pressure on the US-backed opposition at the negotiating table, analysts say. The National Assembly is the only branch of government under opposition control, and elections are not scheduled until December 2020.”
AFP: “Venezuela’s opposition leader Juan Guaido warned President Nicolas Maduro on Tuesday that any attempts to bring forward parliamentary elections would end in “disaster” for the government.”
Amna Nawaz, PBS: “Why Guaido official believes regime change in Venezuela is non-negotiable”
Past Elections
Guatemala General, Second Round – August 11, 2019 (first round was June 16)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
These elections took place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.
In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.
Sasha Ingber, NPR: “Guatemalans have chosen Alejandro Giammattei, a conservative who once led the country’s prison system, to be their next president. Voter turnout in the runoff was low on Sunday in the small, Central American country. Preliminary results showed Giammattei won nearly 58% of the vote and that fewer than half of eligible Guatemalans had cast ballots, according to the country’s electoral tribunal.”
The Economist: “On the trail the president-elect told voters he does not want to be remembered as ‘one more son of a bitch.’ That would be a novel achievement in a country where faith in politicians long ago melted away.”
Claire Parker, Washington Post: “Four things to know about Guatemala’s new president-elect”
Bryan Wilensky, Atlantic Council’s New Atlanticist: “Guatemala’s Anti-Corruption Commission is Ending, But the Fight Will Go On”
Conor Finnegan, ABC News: “While Guatemala’s newly elected president said he cannot implement a migration deal his predecessor signed with the Trump administration, the State Department said Friday the two countries are working to implement it. The agreement would allow the U.S. to deport migrants seeking asylum in the U.S. to Guatemala if they passed through that country on their way to the southern U.S. border.”
Brazil General – October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Last year’s elections in Brazil swept controversial right-wing populist firebrand Jair Bolsonaro into the presidency, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country.
Amanda Taub and Max Fisher, New York Times: “How YouTube Misinformation Resolved a WhatsApp Mystery in Brazil….We landed in Brazil hoping to unravel this seeming mystery. What had really happened there, why were so many observers crediting it to WhatsApp and what did it mean about the power of social media to distort or upend democracies worldwide?”
Paraguay General – April 22, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
President Mario Abdo Benítez won the 2018 presidential elections with 48.96 percent of the vote. Abdo’s conservative Colorado Party, which has dominated Paraguay’s politics for a long time, holds a majority in the lower house of Paraguay’s bicameral National Congress, and a plurality in the upper house. Some lawmakers have sought to impeach Abdo following a controversial deal with Brazil.
The Economist: “A secret hydropower deal with Brazil causes a political crisis in Paraguay: The stage is set for a new Itaipu dam agreement between the two countries”
Honduras – November 26, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Annette Lin, Foreign Policy: “Honduran Protesters Have Little Cause for Hope: Even if President Juan Orlando Hernández were to leave office, the country’s problems would persist.”
The Year Ahead: Americas
Canada provincial and territorial (throughout the year); Haiti parliamentary (due October – delays likely); Bolivia presidential and legislative (October 20); Canada general (October 21); Argentina presidential and legislative (October 27); Uruguay presidential and legislative (October 27); Colombia local (October 27); Guyana snap parliamentary (overdue – tentatively expected November but could be later); Trinidad and Tobago local (November); Dominica legislative (December); St. Kitts and Nevis legislative (February)
Venezuela’s interim president, Juan Guaidó, addresses a crowd in February 2019.
Photo credit: Wikimedia/Alexcocopro (CC BY-SA 4.0)
21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.
Comments
Share this:
Related
Category: This Week Tags: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Dominica, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Paraguay, Uruguay, Venezuela