Upcoming Elections
Somalia Jubaland State Presidential and Parliament (indirect) – August 2019 and Federal Parliamentary and Presidential – due 2020 or 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Somalia hasn’t held direct elections in 50 years at the federal level, and at the state level, only the de facto independent Somaliland holds one-person-one-vote polls. The other states have electoral colleges with clan elders as electors. Somalia has federal elections due in 2020 or 2021, and hopes to move toward a one-person-one-vote model. However, the August Jubaland elections are not direct (which is why they are not on our big map). Politics – and conflict – throughout Somalia is largely based on clans, but efforts have been made to move toward a politics based on political parties. The terrorist group al-Shabab remains a menace.
Jubaland is rich in natural resources, raising the stakes of the election. Kismayo, the capital of Jubaland, this month saw the biggest terrorist attack since an action led by Kenyan soldiers ousted al-Shabab from the city in 2012.
Aggrey Mutambo, The East African: “Kenya is rejecting the position held by the United Nations on Somalia’s Jubbaland presidential election, lifting the veil on its discomfort with the emerging role of Ethiopia in Somalia politics. Ahead of the presidential election in Jubbaland, the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) has recently been vocal in demanding more time for registration of candidates and discussions to relax some of the conditions to run.”
Reuters: “Incumbent Jubbaland President Ahmed Mohamed Madobe, who is seeking re-election this week, is a key security partner for Kenya, while Ethiopia has grown closer to the federal government in Mogadishu in the last year.”
Updated August 23, 2019
Mohamed Olad Hassan, VOA: “Lawmakers in Somalia’s regional state of Jubbaland have re-elected incumbent Ahmed Mohamed Islam as the leader in a controversial election held in the southern port town of Kismayo, the region’s largest. Popularly known as Madobe, the former Islamist leader secured 56 of 73 votes in a first round Thursday, defeating three other candidates.”
Abdiqani Hassan, Reuters: “Jubbaland is the third of Somalia’s seven semi-autonomous regions to hold presidential elections before next year’s national vote. While analysts say that the federal president, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, must exert greater control over Jubbaland and the other regions to have a chance of winning next year, they also expect the federal government to grudgingly accept Thursday’s result, despite earlier fears of violence.”
Namibia Oshakati East by-election – August 24 and Presidential and Legislative – November 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Namibia is a free, stable democracy. Since independence from South Africa in 1990, Namibian politics have been dominated by the socialist SWAPO, an independence movement-turned-political party. In the 2014 elections, judged free, fair, and credible by observers, SWAPO’s presidential candidate, Hage Geingob, won 87 percent of the vote. The party also won 80 percent of votes in the legislative elections. The Economist Intelligence Unit predicts that SWAPO will win the 2019 elections but its majority will decrease.
Hileni Nembwaya, The Namibian: “THE Oshakati East by-election, slated for this Saturday, hangs in the balance after the All People’s Party (APP) lodged an urgent application against the Electoral Commission of Namibia (ECN) at the Electoral Tribunal for the Oshakati district…The APP wants the court to halt the upcoming by-elections from taking place, or to allow the submission of the nomination of candidates to start afresh.”
Zimbabwe National Assembly By-Elections, Glen View South and Mangwe constituencies – September 7, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (improved from Not Free in 2019) – Government Type: Presidential Republic
A coup in 2017 led to the fall of Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s longtime dictator, who left a legacy of gross economic mismanagement and political repression. Mugabe had ruled Zimbabwe with the aid of former Soviet security advice since the transition of apartheid rule in 1979. The 2018 elections for parliament and president had a number of flaws but nonetheless did offer the hope of some semblance of democratic legitimacy to the government. Emmerson Mnangagwa of Mugabe’s ZANU-PF – a former intelligence chief nicknamed “The Crocodile” – narrowly won the presidential race, and promised “radical economic reforms.” However, critics say those reforms have not materialized as of yet, and a violent crackdown on the opposition following the elections echoed Mugabe’s tactics. Zimbabweans live with extreme poverty, food insecurity, and hyperinflation.
The Glen View South seat became vacant when Vimbai Tsvangirai-Java, the daughter of Mugabe’s main rival the late Morgan Tsvangirai, died in a car crash. Tsvangirai was leader of Zimbabwe’s main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), and members of his family still serve in the party. The Mangwe seat became vacant when ZANU-PF’s Obedingwa Mguni died of an illness. Glen VIew is near the capital, Harare, in the northeast of the country, and Mangwe is near Bulawayo, Zimbabwe’s second city, in the southwest of the country.
AFP: “Riot police in Zimbabwe on Friday [August 17] fired tear gas and beat demonstrators who defied a protest ban, as the opposition accused President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s government of surpassing Robert Mugabe’s regime in brutality.”
Botswana Parliamentary – October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Botswana, the world’s second-largest producer of diamonds, is a stable democracy with regular free, fair, credible elections. In 2018, President Ian Khama stepped down exactly 10 years after his inauguration, in keeping with the constitutional limit of two terms in office (his predecessor had done the same thing). Mokgweetsi Masisi, the former vice president, is filling the role of the presidency until after the elections, when the National Assembly will choose a new president. Khama’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – founded by his father, Seretse Khama, protagonist of the 2017 film A United Kingdom – has dominated politics since independence in 1966, but soon after leaving office, Khama left the BDP to form a new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front. The split could open up debate on actual policy, or it could devolve into a personal power struggle.
The National Assembly will elect a new president following the parliamentary elections.
APA: “Temperatures rise as election fever grips Botswana”
Africa Times: “Botswana’s Masisi seeks to woo former members back to BDP”
Bakang Ntshingane, Mmegi Online: “Is populism surging into Botswana politics? Despite the rising wave of populism across the world and the damage populists have done in both the East and the West, voters are increasingly falling for populist rhetoric and the leaders who peddle it.”
Mqondisi Dube, VOA: “Botswana is battling an influx of illegal immigrants from Zimbabwe, as the Zimbabwean government struggles to overcome a deep economic crisis. But authorities in Botswana appear to be losing the battle, as those who are deported are soon back in the country
Mozambique Presidential, Legislative, and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since then until an August 2019 peace accord). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.
RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities. Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth. In the upcoming elections, in addition to voting for president, citizens will elect provincial governors directly for the first time – previously, they had been appointed by the president.
Carrie Manning, World Politics Review: “Mozambique’s New Peace Accord Will Soon Be Put to the Test”
Borges Nhamire, Bloomberg: “Mozambique Opposition Alleges Harassment Days After Peace Deal”
Kenya Kibra By-Election – November 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Kenya’s next general elections are not due until 2022. The August 2017 elections were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
Kibra constituency is located in Nairobi County and includes Kibera, often called “Africa’s largest slum.” The seat became open when incumbent Ken Okoth died of cancer in July 2019. Okoth was a member of Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement.
Ibrahim Oruko, The Daily Nation (Kenya): “The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has announced that the by-election for the Kibra Parliamentary seat will be conducted on November 7, 2019. The commission has given public officers seven days to resign from their positions if they wish to contest the seat left vacant by the death of Ken Okoth late last month.”
Otieno Otieno, The Citizen: “Kenya headed for a referendum hoping to end divisive elections”
Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – Early 2020 (delayed from October 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.
Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat. The political crisis has an ethnic dimension.
Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections, which are likely delayed following a July vote by the National Assembly to extend its term in office (the National Assembly’s second extension). The mandates were set to expire October 29, 2019 and have been extended for two months, so the elections that had been due in October most likely will not happen before 2020.
Franck Foute, The Africa Report: “Cameroon: Michèle Ndoki, a symbol of political hope, faces death penalty”
Moki Edwin Kindzeka, VOA: “Cameroon Journalists Threatened by Government”
Chad Legislative and Local – Due 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Idriss Déby seized power in a rebellion in 1990, and although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote. Western governments, particularly France, view the Déby regime as a security partner in countering terrorism in the region, and provide military aid. Opposition activists face arrest and mistreatment. There are concerns that the regime uses counterterrorism as an excuse for suppressing legitimate political opposition.
The mandate of the current National Assembly expired in 2015, and the elections have been delayed multiple times. In 2018, President Idriss Déby announced that the elections would happen in the “first half of 2019,” without giving a date, but in May 2019, the government delayed the elections indefinitely again, citing cost. The opposition holds that the real issue is a lack of political will.
AFP: “Chad President Idriss Deby declared a state of emergency in two eastern provinces on Sunday after violent intercommunal clashes left dozens dead earlier this month. The state of emergency will run for three months in Sila and Ouaddai regions bordering Sudan where 50 people have died since August 9 in fighting between cattle herders and settled farmers, the president’s office said.”
Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Following three years of protests, Ethiopia’s ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners and opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful. However, violence could threaten Abiy’s reforms.
In the 2015 elections – which were not free and fair – the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats.
Aggrey Mutambo, The East African: “Will reforms, Eritrean deal save Abiy in 2020?”
Burundi Presidential and Legislative – May 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
In 2015, President Pierre Nkurunziza ran for a third term, which critics said was unconstitutional. Nkurunziza’s decision sparked a political crisis. The opposition boycotted the election. Nkurunziza won, but the election was marred by violence and a coup attempt. In 2018, Nkurunziza said he would step down in 2020. Burundi’s 12-year civil war ended in 2005, but violence and authoritarianism have been on the rise. Many Burundians are nervous about the upcoming polls.
AFP: “Burundi opposition says 18 offices vandalised in two months”
Ouest-France/AFP (in French): “One opposition activist killed and six injured in attack. Witnesses say a militia close to those in power is responsible for the aggression.”
Côte d’Ivoire Presidential and Legislative – October 31, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Frank Hersey, AFP: “Ahead of Ivory Coast’s critical 2020 presidential elections, civil society groups are being prevented from protesting for changes they believe would lead to fairer elections and improved living conditions.”
Christina Okello, RFI: “The emerging alliance of Cote d’Ivoire’s two former presidents: One is currently out on parole in Brussels after being acquitted for war crimes; the other has joined the opposition after walking out of Côte d’Ivoire’s coalition government. In recent months, Laurent Gbagbo and Henri Konan Bédié have gotten closer and teir rapprochement could shake up next year’s presidential election.”
Guinea Legislative – 2019 and Presidential – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Elections in Guinea routinely see significant delays and have historically been surrounded by ethnic tensions and violence. President Alpha Condé, a former opposition leader who came to power in 2010 following a transition from military to civilian rule, is prevented by the constitution from running for a third term in the presidential polls due in 2020. However, he wants to change the constitution to allow him to do so (which Russia is encouraging because Russian companies have mining interests in Guinea). The terms of the current legislators expired in January 2019. Condé extended their mandates, and a new election date has not been set.
Alix Boucher, Africa Center for Strategic Studies: “Guinea at a Crossroads: After breaking away from decades of autocratic rule, Guinea’s democratic progress is now at risk as President Alpha Condé maneuvers to revise the constitution and stay in power for a third term.”
Tanzania General – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Tanzania’s socialist Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and its predecessors have been in power since 1961. In the 2015 elections, deemed imperfect but credible by observers, John Magufuli won, and has since launched a crackdown on the opposition, media, civil society, and the private sector. The main opposition center-right Chadema, whose leader Freeman Mbowe recently spent nearly five months in prison on charges of sedition, currently holds 62 out of 384 seats in the unicameral National Assembly. Edward Lowassa, a former CCM prime minister who ran for president in 2015 as the candidate of Chadema and a coalition of other opposition parties, won 40 percent of the vote. Lowassa has since returned to CCM along with other opposition figures who have been bribed or bullied into crossing the aisle and joining the ruling party.
The Economist notes, “Today Tanzania is on the descent from patchy democracy towards slapdash dictatorship.”
Anita Powell, VOA: “Civil Society Workers Run Afoul of Tanzania Security Officials in Sign of Increasing Clampdown”
Sudan General – 2022
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
In April, nonviolent demonstrations ousted Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir. In June 2019, around the 30th anniversary of Tiananmen Square, Sudanese troops massacred citizens protesting the regime. In August 2019, military officers and civilian leaders reached an agreement to share power until elections in 2022.
Max Bearak, Washington Post: “Sudan marked a major symbolic milestone Saturday as the military officers who overthrew President Omar Hassan al-Bashir in April signed an agreement to share power with civilian leaders in an arrangement that sets up elections in 2022.”
DW: “Under the plan, a joint military and civilian sovereign council will rule for a little over three years until elections can be held. A military leader will head the 11-member council for the first 21 months, followed by a civilian leader for the next 18.”
Past Elections
Liberia By-Elections – July 29, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
When President George Weah, a former footballer, was elected in 2017, Liberia saw its first peaceful transition of power since 1944. The country holds elections to the Senate in 2020.
Henry Karmo, Front Page Africa: “Liberia: Ruling Party Rejects Elections Commission’s Call for a Re-run in District 15; Finds Scapegoats for Defeat in By-elections”
Malawi Tripartite (Presidential, Legislative, Local) – May 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Charles Pensulo, The Guardian: “Rights activist survives petrol bomb attack on his home in Malawi: Bombing believed to be linked to Timothy Mtambo’s role at forefront of mass protests over alleged rigging of elections.”
Africa This Week – August 19, 2019
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Last Updated: August 29, 2019 by 21votes
August 19, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Africa on Mondays. Click the map pins.
Somalia Jubaland State Presidential and Parliament (indirect) – August 2019 and Federal Parliamentary and Presidential – due 2020 or 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Somalia hasn’t held direct elections in 50 years at the federal level, and at the state level, only the de facto independent Somaliland holds one-person-one-vote polls. The other states have electoral colleges with clan elders as electors. Somalia has federal elections due in 2020 or 2021, and hopes to move toward a one-person-one-vote model. However, the August Jubaland elections are not direct (which is why they are not on our big map). Politics – and conflict – throughout Somalia is largely based on clans, but efforts have been made to move toward a politics based on political parties. The terrorist group al-Shabab remains a menace.
Jubaland is rich in natural resources, raising the stakes of the election. Kismayo, the capital of Jubaland, this month saw the biggest terrorist attack since an action led by Kenyan soldiers ousted al-Shabab from the city in 2012.
Namibia Oshakati East by-election - August 24 and Presidential and Legislative – November 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Namibia is a free, stable democracy. Since independence from South Africa in 1990, Namibian politics have been dominated by the socialist SWAPO, an independence movement-turned-political party. In the 2014 elections, judged free, fair, and credible by observers, SWAPO’s presidential candidate, Hage Geingob, won 87 percent of the vote. The party also won 80 percent of votes in the legislative elections. The Economist Intelligence Unit predicts that SWAPO will win the 2019 elections but its majority will decrease.
Zimbabwe National Assembly By-Elections, Glen View South and Mangwe constituencies – September 7, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (improved from Not Free in 2019) – Government Type: Presidential Republic
A coup in 2017 led to the fall of Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s longtime dictator, who left a legacy of gross economic mismanagement and political repression. Mugabe had ruled Zimbabwe with the aid of former Soviet security advice since the transition of apartheid rule in 1979. The 2018 elections for parliament and president had a number of flaws but nonetheless did offer the hope of some semblance of democratic legitimacy to the government. Emmerson Mnangagwa of Mugabe’s ZANU-PF – a former intelligence chief nicknamed “The Crocodile” – narrowly won the presidential race, and promised “radical economic reforms.” However, critics say those reforms have not materialized as of yet, and a violent crackdown on the opposition following the elections echoed Mugabe’s tactics. Zimbabweans live with extreme poverty, food insecurity, and hyperinflation.
The Glen View South seat became vacant when Vimbai Tsvangirai-Java, the daughter of Mugabe’s main rival the late Morgan Tsvangirai, died in a car crash. Tsvangirai was leader of Zimbabwe’s main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), and members of his family still serve in the party. The Mangwe seat became vacant when ZANU-PF’s Obedingwa Mguni died of an illness. Glen VIew is near the capital, Harare, in the northeast of the country, and Mangwe is near Bulawayo, Zimbabwe’s second city, in the southwest of the country.
Botswana Parliamentary – October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Botswana, the world’s second-largest producer of diamonds, is a stable democracy with regular free, fair, credible elections. In 2018, President Ian Khama stepped down exactly 10 years after his inauguration, in keeping with the constitutional limit of two terms in office (his predecessor had done the same thing). Mokgweetsi Masisi, the former vice president, is filling the role of the presidency until after the elections, when the National Assembly will choose a new president. Khama’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – founded by his father, Seretse Khama, protagonist of the 2017 film A United Kingdom – has dominated politics since independence in 1966, but soon after leaving office, Khama left the BDP to form a new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front. The split could open up debate on actual policy, or it could devolve into a personal power struggle.
The National Assembly will elect a new president following the parliamentary elections.
Mozambique Presidential, Legislative, and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since then until an August 2019 peace accord). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.
RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities. Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth. In the upcoming elections, in addition to voting for president, citizens will elect provincial governors directly for the first time – previously, they had been appointed by the president.
Kenya Kibra By-Election - November 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Kenya’s next general elections are not due until 2022. The August 2017 elections were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
Kibra constituency is located in Nairobi County and includes Kibera, often called “Africa’s largest slum.” The seat became open when incumbent Ken Okoth died of cancer in July 2019. Okoth was a member of Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement.
Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – Early 2020 (delayed from October 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.
Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat. The political crisis has an ethnic dimension.
Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections, which are likely delayed following a July vote by the National Assembly to extend its term in office (the National Assembly’s second extension). The mandates were set to expire October 29, 2019 and have been extended for two months, so the elections that had been due in October most likely will not happen before 2020.
Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Following three years of protests, Ethiopia’s ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners and opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful. However, violence could threaten Abiy’s reforms.
In the 2015 elections – which were not free and fair – the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats.
Burundi Presidential and Legislative – May 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
In 2015, President Pierre Nkurunziza ran for a third term, which critics said was unconstitutional. Nkurunziza’s decision sparked a political crisis. The opposition boycotted the election. Nkurunziza won, but the election was marred by violence and a coup attempt. In 2018, Nkurunziza said he would step down in 2020. Burundi’s 12-year civil war ended in 2005, but violence and authoritarianism have been on the rise. Many Burundians are nervous about the upcoming polls.
Côte d’Ivoire Presidential and Legislative – October 31, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Guinea Legislative – 2019 and Presidential – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Elections in Guinea routinely see significant delays and have historically been surrounded by ethnic tensions and violence. President Alpha Condé, a former opposition leader who came to power in 2010 following a transition from military to civilian rule, is prevented by the constitution from running for a third term in the presidential polls due in 2020. However, he wants to change the constitution to allow him to do so (which Russia is encouraging because Russian companies have mining interests in Guinea). The terms of the current legislators expired in January 2019. Condé extended their mandates, and a new election date has not been set.
Chad Legislative and Local – Due 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Idriss Déby seized power in a rebellion in 1990, and although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote. Western governments, particularly France, view the Déby regime as a security partner in countering terrorism in the region, and provide military aid. Opposition activists face arrest and mistreatment. There are concerns that the regime uses counterterrorism as an excuse for suppressing legitimate political opposition.
The mandate of the current National Assembly expired in 2015, and the elections have been delayed multiple times. In 2018, President Idriss Déby announced that the elections would happen in the “first half of 2019,” without giving a date, but in May 2019, the government delayed the elections indefinitely again, citing cost. The opposition holds that the real issue is a lack of political will.
Tanzania General – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Tanzania’s socialist Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and its predecessors have been in power since 1961. In the 2015 elections, deemed imperfect but credible by observers, John Magufuli won, and has since launched a crackdown on the opposition, media, civil society, and the private sector. The main opposition center-right Chadema, whose leader Freeman Mbowe recently spent nearly five months in prison on charges of sedition, currently holds 62 out of 384 seats in the unicameral National Assembly. Edward Lowassa, a former CCM prime minister who ran for president in 2015 as the candidate of Chadema and a coalition of other opposition parties, won 40 percent of the vote. Lowassa has since returned to CCM along with other opposition figures who have been bribed or bullied into crossing the aisle and joining the ruling party.
The Economist notes, “Today Tanzania is on the descent from patchy democracy towards slapdash dictatorship.”
Sudan General - 2022
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
In April, nonviolent demonstrations ousted Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir. In June 2019, around the 30th anniversary of Tiananmen Square, Sudanese troops massacred citizens protesting the regime. In August 2019, military officers and civilian leaders reached an agreement to share power until elections in 2022.
Liberia By-Elections – July 29, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
When President George Weah, a former footballer, was elected in 2017, Liberia saw its first peaceful transition of power since 1944. The country holds elections to the Senate in 2020.
Malawi Tripartite (Presidential, Legislative, Local) – May 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Charles Pensulo, The Guardian: “Rights activist survives petrol bomb attack on his home in Malawi: Bombing believed to be linked to Timothy Mtambo’s role at forefront of mass protests over alleged rigging of elections.”
Upcoming Elections
Somalia Jubaland State Presidential and Parliament (indirect) – August 2019 and Federal Parliamentary and Presidential – due 2020 or 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Somalia hasn’t held direct elections in 50 years at the federal level, and at the state level, only the de facto independent Somaliland holds one-person-one-vote polls. The other states have electoral colleges with clan elders as electors. Somalia has federal elections due in 2020 or 2021, and hopes to move toward a one-person-one-vote model. However, the August Jubaland elections are not direct (which is why they are not on our big map). Politics – and conflict – throughout Somalia is largely based on clans, but efforts have been made to move toward a politics based on political parties. The terrorist group al-Shabab remains a menace.
Jubaland is rich in natural resources, raising the stakes of the election. Kismayo, the capital of Jubaland, this month saw the biggest terrorist attack since an action led by Kenyan soldiers ousted al-Shabab from the city in 2012.
Aggrey Mutambo, The East African: “Kenya is rejecting the position held by the United Nations on Somalia’s Jubbaland presidential election, lifting the veil on its discomfort with the emerging role of Ethiopia in Somalia politics. Ahead of the presidential election in Jubbaland, the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) has recently been vocal in demanding more time for registration of candidates and discussions to relax some of the conditions to run.”
Reuters: “Incumbent Jubbaland President Ahmed Mohamed Madobe, who is seeking re-election this week, is a key security partner for Kenya, while Ethiopia has grown closer to the federal government in Mogadishu in the last year.”
Updated August 23, 2019
Mohamed Olad Hassan, VOA: “Lawmakers in Somalia’s regional state of Jubbaland have re-elected incumbent Ahmed Mohamed Islam as the leader in a controversial election held in the southern port town of Kismayo, the region’s largest. Popularly known as Madobe, the former Islamist leader secured 56 of 73 votes in a first round Thursday, defeating three other candidates.”
Abdiqani Hassan, Reuters: “Jubbaland is the third of Somalia’s seven semi-autonomous regions to hold presidential elections before next year’s national vote. While analysts say that the federal president, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, must exert greater control over Jubbaland and the other regions to have a chance of winning next year, they also expect the federal government to grudgingly accept Thursday’s result, despite earlier fears of violence.”
Namibia Oshakati East by-election – August 24 and Presidential and Legislative – November 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Namibia is a free, stable democracy. Since independence from South Africa in 1990, Namibian politics have been dominated by the socialist SWAPO, an independence movement-turned-political party. In the 2014 elections, judged free, fair, and credible by observers, SWAPO’s presidential candidate, Hage Geingob, won 87 percent of the vote. The party also won 80 percent of votes in the legislative elections. The Economist Intelligence Unit predicts that SWAPO will win the 2019 elections but its majority will decrease.
Hileni Nembwaya, The Namibian: “THE Oshakati East by-election, slated for this Saturday, hangs in the balance after the All People’s Party (APP) lodged an urgent application against the Electoral Commission of Namibia (ECN) at the Electoral Tribunal for the Oshakati district…The APP wants the court to halt the upcoming by-elections from taking place, or to allow the submission of the nomination of candidates to start afresh.”
Zimbabwe National Assembly By-Elections, Glen View South and Mangwe constituencies – September 7, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (improved from Not Free in 2019) – Government Type: Presidential Republic
A coup in 2017 led to the fall of Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s longtime dictator, who left a legacy of gross economic mismanagement and political repression. Mugabe had ruled Zimbabwe with the aid of former Soviet security advice since the transition of apartheid rule in 1979. The 2018 elections for parliament and president had a number of flaws but nonetheless did offer the hope of some semblance of democratic legitimacy to the government. Emmerson Mnangagwa of Mugabe’s ZANU-PF – a former intelligence chief nicknamed “The Crocodile” – narrowly won the presidential race, and promised “radical economic reforms.” However, critics say those reforms have not materialized as of yet, and a violent crackdown on the opposition following the elections echoed Mugabe’s tactics. Zimbabweans live with extreme poverty, food insecurity, and hyperinflation.
The Glen View South seat became vacant when Vimbai Tsvangirai-Java, the daughter of Mugabe’s main rival the late Morgan Tsvangirai, died in a car crash. Tsvangirai was leader of Zimbabwe’s main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), and members of his family still serve in the party. The Mangwe seat became vacant when ZANU-PF’s Obedingwa Mguni died of an illness. Glen VIew is near the capital, Harare, in the northeast of the country, and Mangwe is near Bulawayo, Zimbabwe’s second city, in the southwest of the country.
AFP: “Riot police in Zimbabwe on Friday [August 17] fired tear gas and beat demonstrators who defied a protest ban, as the opposition accused President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s government of surpassing Robert Mugabe’s regime in brutality.”
Botswana Parliamentary – October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Botswana, the world’s second-largest producer of diamonds, is a stable democracy with regular free, fair, credible elections. In 2018, President Ian Khama stepped down exactly 10 years after his inauguration, in keeping with the constitutional limit of two terms in office (his predecessor had done the same thing). Mokgweetsi Masisi, the former vice president, is filling the role of the presidency until after the elections, when the National Assembly will choose a new president. Khama’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – founded by his father, Seretse Khama, protagonist of the 2017 film A United Kingdom – has dominated politics since independence in 1966, but soon after leaving office, Khama left the BDP to form a new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front. The split could open up debate on actual policy, or it could devolve into a personal power struggle.
The National Assembly will elect a new president following the parliamentary elections.
APA: “Temperatures rise as election fever grips Botswana”
Africa Times: “Botswana’s Masisi seeks to woo former members back to BDP”
Bakang Ntshingane, Mmegi Online: “Is populism surging into Botswana politics? Despite the rising wave of populism across the world and the damage populists have done in both the East and the West, voters are increasingly falling for populist rhetoric and the leaders who peddle it.”
Mqondisi Dube, VOA: “Botswana is battling an influx of illegal immigrants from Zimbabwe, as the Zimbabwean government struggles to overcome a deep economic crisis. But authorities in Botswana appear to be losing the battle, as those who are deported are soon back in the country
Mozambique Presidential, Legislative, and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since then until an August 2019 peace accord). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.
RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities. Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth. In the upcoming elections, in addition to voting for president, citizens will elect provincial governors directly for the first time – previously, they had been appointed by the president.
Carrie Manning, World Politics Review: “Mozambique’s New Peace Accord Will Soon Be Put to the Test”
Borges Nhamire, Bloomberg: “Mozambique Opposition Alleges Harassment Days After Peace Deal”
Kenya Kibra By-Election – November 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Kenya’s next general elections are not due until 2022. The August 2017 elections were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
Kibra constituency is located in Nairobi County and includes Kibera, often called “Africa’s largest slum.” The seat became open when incumbent Ken Okoth died of cancer in July 2019. Okoth was a member of Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement.
Ibrahim Oruko, The Daily Nation (Kenya): “The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has announced that the by-election for the Kibra Parliamentary seat will be conducted on November 7, 2019. The commission has given public officers seven days to resign from their positions if they wish to contest the seat left vacant by the death of Ken Okoth late last month.”
Otieno Otieno, The Citizen: “Kenya headed for a referendum hoping to end divisive elections”
Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – Early 2020 (delayed from October 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.
Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat. The political crisis has an ethnic dimension.
Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections, which are likely delayed following a July vote by the National Assembly to extend its term in office (the National Assembly’s second extension). The mandates were set to expire October 29, 2019 and have been extended for two months, so the elections that had been due in October most likely will not happen before 2020.
Franck Foute, The Africa Report: “Cameroon: Michèle Ndoki, a symbol of political hope, faces death penalty”
Moki Edwin Kindzeka, VOA: “Cameroon Journalists Threatened by Government”
Chad Legislative and Local – Due 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Idriss Déby seized power in a rebellion in 1990, and although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote. Western governments, particularly France, view the Déby regime as a security partner in countering terrorism in the region, and provide military aid. Opposition activists face arrest and mistreatment. There are concerns that the regime uses counterterrorism as an excuse for suppressing legitimate political opposition.
The mandate of the current National Assembly expired in 2015, and the elections have been delayed multiple times. In 2018, President Idriss Déby announced that the elections would happen in the “first half of 2019,” without giving a date, but in May 2019, the government delayed the elections indefinitely again, citing cost. The opposition holds that the real issue is a lack of political will.
AFP: “Chad President Idriss Deby declared a state of emergency in two eastern provinces on Sunday after violent intercommunal clashes left dozens dead earlier this month. The state of emergency will run for three months in Sila and Ouaddai regions bordering Sudan where 50 people have died since August 9 in fighting between cattle herders and settled farmers, the president’s office said.”
Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Following three years of protests, Ethiopia’s ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners and opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful. However, violence could threaten Abiy’s reforms.
In the 2015 elections – which were not free and fair – the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats.
Aggrey Mutambo, The East African: “Will reforms, Eritrean deal save Abiy in 2020?”
Burundi Presidential and Legislative – May 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
In 2015, President Pierre Nkurunziza ran for a third term, which critics said was unconstitutional. Nkurunziza’s decision sparked a political crisis. The opposition boycotted the election. Nkurunziza won, but the election was marred by violence and a coup attempt. In 2018, Nkurunziza said he would step down in 2020. Burundi’s 12-year civil war ended in 2005, but violence and authoritarianism have been on the rise. Many Burundians are nervous about the upcoming polls.
AFP: “Burundi opposition says 18 offices vandalised in two months”
Ouest-France/AFP (in French): “One opposition activist killed and six injured in attack. Witnesses say a militia close to those in power is responsible for the aggression.”
Côte d’Ivoire Presidential and Legislative – October 31, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Frank Hersey, AFP: “Ahead of Ivory Coast’s critical 2020 presidential elections, civil society groups are being prevented from protesting for changes they believe would lead to fairer elections and improved living conditions.”
Christina Okello, RFI: “The emerging alliance of Cote d’Ivoire’s two former presidents: One is currently out on parole in Brussels after being acquitted for war crimes; the other has joined the opposition after walking out of Côte d’Ivoire’s coalition government. In recent months, Laurent Gbagbo and Henri Konan Bédié have gotten closer and teir rapprochement could shake up next year’s presidential election.”
Guinea Legislative – 2019 and Presidential – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Elections in Guinea routinely see significant delays and have historically been surrounded by ethnic tensions and violence. President Alpha Condé, a former opposition leader who came to power in 2010 following a transition from military to civilian rule, is prevented by the constitution from running for a third term in the presidential polls due in 2020. However, he wants to change the constitution to allow him to do so (which Russia is encouraging because Russian companies have mining interests in Guinea). The terms of the current legislators expired in January 2019. Condé extended their mandates, and a new election date has not been set.
Alix Boucher, Africa Center for Strategic Studies: “Guinea at a Crossroads: After breaking away from decades of autocratic rule, Guinea’s democratic progress is now at risk as President Alpha Condé maneuvers to revise the constitution and stay in power for a third term.”
Tanzania General – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Tanzania’s socialist Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and its predecessors have been in power since 1961. In the 2015 elections, deemed imperfect but credible by observers, John Magufuli won, and has since launched a crackdown on the opposition, media, civil society, and the private sector. The main opposition center-right Chadema, whose leader Freeman Mbowe recently spent nearly five months in prison on charges of sedition, currently holds 62 out of 384 seats in the unicameral National Assembly. Edward Lowassa, a former CCM prime minister who ran for president in 2015 as the candidate of Chadema and a coalition of other opposition parties, won 40 percent of the vote. Lowassa has since returned to CCM along with other opposition figures who have been bribed or bullied into crossing the aisle and joining the ruling party.
The Economist notes, “Today Tanzania is on the descent from patchy democracy towards slapdash dictatorship.”
Anita Powell, VOA: “Civil Society Workers Run Afoul of Tanzania Security Officials in Sign of Increasing Clampdown”
Sudan General – 2022
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
In April, nonviolent demonstrations ousted Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir. In June 2019, around the 30th anniversary of Tiananmen Square, Sudanese troops massacred citizens protesting the regime. In August 2019, military officers and civilian leaders reached an agreement to share power until elections in 2022.
Max Bearak, Washington Post: “Sudan marked a major symbolic milestone Saturday as the military officers who overthrew President Omar Hassan al-Bashir in April signed an agreement to share power with civilian leaders in an arrangement that sets up elections in 2022.”
DW: “Under the plan, a joint military and civilian sovereign council will rule for a little over three years until elections can be held. A military leader will head the 11-member council for the first 21 months, followed by a civilian leader for the next 18.”
Past Elections
Liberia By-Elections – July 29, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
When President George Weah, a former footballer, was elected in 2017, Liberia saw its first peaceful transition of power since 1944. The country holds elections to the Senate in 2020.
Henry Karmo, Front Page Africa: “Liberia: Ruling Party Rejects Elections Commission’s Call for a Re-run in District 15; Finds Scapegoats for Defeat in By-elections”
Malawi Tripartite (Presidential, Legislative, Local) – May 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Charles Pensulo, The Guardian: “Rights activist survives petrol bomb attack on his home in Malawi: Bombing believed to be linked to Timothy Mtambo’s role at forefront of mass protests over alleged rigging of elections.”
The Year Ahead: Africa
Guinea legislative (overdue – mandates of current legislators expired January 13 – date not set for new elections); Chad legislative (originally due in 2015 but have been delayed several times – unclear when they will. actually happen); Togo local by-elections (August 15); Namibia Oshakati East by-election (August 24); Zimbabwe by-elections (September 7); Botswana parliamentary (October); Cameroon parliamentary (due October but delayed – new date not set); Mozambique presidential, legislative, provincial (October 15); Madagascar communal (due October 28 but postponed – new date not set); Somalia, Somaliland congressional and local (November 1, 2019 – tentative); Nigeria Kogi and Bayelsa state elections (November 16); Kenya Kibra by-election (November 17); Guinea-Bissau presidential (November 24); Namibia presidential and legislative (November 27); Mauritius legislative (December); Senegal local (December 1); Ethiopia parliamentary (May); Burundi presidential and legislative (May 20); Mali Parliamentary (due June but postponed indefinitely)
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Category: This Week Tags: Botswana, Burundi, Cameroon, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Guinea, Kenya, Liberia, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania, Zimbabwe