Upcoming Elections
Tunisia Presidential – September 15, 2019 and Parliamentary – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and this year, the country will hold the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Ennadha, which presents itself as a moderate, pro-democracy Islamist party but holds some retrograde views, won the first post-Ben Ali elections, but in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the secularist Nidaa Tounes won the most seats. In 2018, Tunisia held long-delayed municipal elections, which saw independent candidates win the most seats, followed by Ennadha.
Prime Minister Youssef Chahed broke off from Nidaa Tounes to form Tahya Tounes, another secularist party, and it looks to be a close contest between the fractious secularist parties and Ennadha (Machrouu Tounes, another secularist party, broke from Nidaa Tounes in 2016 and currently has 25 seats in parliament).
President Beji Caid Essebsi of Nidaa Tounes, who became Tunisia’s first democratically-elected president in 2014, died at age 92 on July 25, 2019. The presidential election – originally scheduled for November – was moved to September 15.
Elizia Volkmann, Al-Monitor: “Independents flood Tunisian elections”
Tarek Amara and Ulf Laessing, Reuters: “Tunisia’s moderate Islamists are hoping the genial Beethoven fan they have nominated to run in next month’s presidential elections will break the mould in the Arab world by turning success at the ballot box into uncontested rule.”
DPA: “A Tunisian advocate of gay rights has filed a legal challenge against an electoral commission’s decision to block his bid to stand for president in the country’s upcoming election, the panel said on Sunday.”
Reuters: “Factbox: Tunisia’s main candidates for presidential elections”
Ambassador Richard LeBaron and Leah Hickert, Atlantic Council’s MENASource: “Do Arabs Want Democracy?….The first observation we would draw from the data is that Arabs have decidedly not rejected democracy as a form of government suitable for them.
Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Israel – nicknamed the “startup nation” – is a vibrant democracy. In September, Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s center-right Likud was unable to form a coalition following April’s elections. While parties friendly to Netanyahu won more seats than those friendly to Netanyahu’s main rival, former IDF chief Benny Gantz, coalition talks collapsed over the issue of drafting ultra-Orthodox into the military. One of Likud’s coalition partners, Avgidor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, supported conscription – and refused to budge – while religious parties adamantly opposed it, highlighting growing tensions between secular and religious Israelis. Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset and called for new elections rather than giving Gantz the chance to try to form a government. Additionally, Netanyahu faces corruption charges. The elections are happening in the middle of U.S. President Donald Trump’s quixotic attempt to seal the “deal of the century” between Israelis and Palestinians.
Chemi Shalev, Haaretz: “Israeli Election Mismatch Pits Fire-breathing Netanyahu Against Sluggish Gantz: The center-left candidate is storming the Prime Minister’s Office with all the enthusiasm of a prisoner consigned to hard labor”
Mehul Srivastava, Financial Times: “Netanyahu puts West Bank at heart of election strategy: Israel prime minister seizes on incendiary issue to rally the right”
Judy Maitz, Haaretz: “For These Young Israelis, Netanyahu’s Ties With Putin Are Not a Vote Winner: Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing rival Avigdor Lieberman are both chasing the Russian vote in September’s election, but young members of the community seem unimpressed by their efforts”
Afghanistan Presidential – September 28, 2019 (further delays possible)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Islamic Republic
Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, marred by violence and administrative problems. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election. Presidential campaign is gearing up right in the middle of peace negotiations between the United States and the Taliban.
Jon Gerberg and Sharif Hassan, Washington Post: “During Afghan elections, schools double as voting places — and become Taliban targets”
Pamela Constable, Washington Post: “Afghans voice fears that the U.S. is undercutting them in deal with the Taliban”
Iran Parliamentary – February 2020 and Presidential – May or June 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Theocratic Republic
Some analysts argue that “moderates” or “reformers” won Iran’s 2016 parliamentary elections, but the country’s opaque politics make it difficult to know for sure how to characterize the results. All candidates must be approved by the Guardian Council, which rejected thousands during the 2016 elections. Parliament is less powerful than the Supreme Leader and other institutions such as the Guardian Council, the judiciary, and the security services. The elections are happening in the context of escalating tensions with the United States.
Ehsan Bodaghi, Al-Monitor: “Hoopla over minor Iranian election may herald big fallout in 2020….For the past four terms, elections to choose assistants for the Islamic City Council of Tehran were low-key and inconsequential. But the fifth election, held July 26, led to a showdown between Iran’s political groups — perhaps foreshadowing what’s to come in February’s parliamentary elections.”
Iraq Provincial – April 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Date tentative – election commission has set it as their preferred date. Originally scheduled for December 2018, but delayed multiple times following controversial national elections in May 2018 (the first since the defeat of ISIS).
Omar Sattar, Al-Monitor: “Amendments to Iraqi provincial elections law spark controversy”
Libya Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: In Transition
Libya remains in a civil war. The international community wants Libya to hold presidential or parliamentary elections this year. Unclear when the elections will actually happen.
Andrew Green, World Politics Review: “After a two-day truce to observe the Eid al-Adha holiday, fighting has resumed in Libya. Any hope that the brief pause might signal a path to the resolution of a conflict that erupted in April, when military strongman Khalifa Haftar began his campaign to conquer the capital, Tripoli, quickly evaporated.”
Past Elections
Turkey Local – March 31, 2019 (re-run June 23, 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Party Free in 2018) – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Turkey held local elections on March 31, but invalidated the results of the Istanbul mayoral election after Ekrem Imamoglu from the opposition Republican Party (CHP) won by a small margin. They re-ran the election on June 23 after Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) alleged fraud. The move did not pay off – Imamoglu defeated AKP’s Binali Yildirim once again, by an even bigger margin. The election took place in the context of Turkey’s slide into authoritarianism. Although Turkey is not due for general elections until 2023, there have been rumors of possible snap elections.
Kareem Fahim, Washington Post: “Turkey’s government said Monday that it had indicted three popular mayors from Kurdish-majority provinces on terrorism charges and replaced them with state officials. The suspension came five months after the mayors won landslide victories in local polls.”
Serkan Demirtas, Hurriyet Daily News: “Dismissal of three mayors will toughen political climate in Turkey”
Middle East This Week – August 20, 2019
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Last Updated: September 18, 2019 by 21votes
August 20, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore the greater Middle East and North Africa on Tuesdays. Click the map pins.
Tunisia Presidential – September 15, 2019 and Parliamentary – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and this year, the country will hold the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Ennadha, which presents itself as a moderate, pro-democracy Islamist party but holds some retrograde views, won the first post-Ben Ali elections, but in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the secularist Nidaa Tounes won the most seats. In 2018, Tunisia held long-delayed municipal elections, which saw independent candidates win the most seats, followed by Ennadha.
Prime Minister Youssef Chahed broke off from Nidaa Tounes to form Tahya Tounes, another secularist party, and it looks to be a close contest between the fractious secularist parties and Ennadha (Machrouu Tounes, another secularist party, broke from Nidaa Tounes in 2016 and currently has 25 seats in parliament).
President Beji Caid Essebsi of Nidaa Tounes, who became Tunisia’s first democratically-elected president in 2014, died at age 92 on July 25, 2019. The presidential election – originally scheduled for November – was moved to September 15.
Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Israel – nicknamed the “startup nation” – is a vibrant democracy. In September, Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s center-right Likud was unable to form a coalition following April’s elections. While parties friendly to Netanyahu won more seats than those friendly to Netanyahu’s main rival, former IDF chief Benny Gantz, coalition talks collapsed over the issue of drafting ultra-Orthodox into the military. One of Likud’s coalition partners, Avgidor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, supported conscription – and refused to budge – while religious parties adamantly opposed it, highlighting growing tensions between secular and religious Israelis. Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset and called for new elections rather than giving Gantz the chance to try to form a government. Additionally, Netanyahu faces corruption charges. The elections are happening in the middle of U.S. President Donald Trump’s quixotic attempt to seal the “deal of the century” between Israelis and Palestinians.
Afghanistan Presidential – September 28, 2019 (further delays possible)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Islamic Republic
Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, marred by violence and administrative problems. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election. Presidential campaign is gearing up right in the middle of peace negotiations between the United States and the Taliban.
Iran Parliamentary – February 2020 and Presidential – May or June 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Theocratic Republic
Some analysts argue that “moderates” or “reformers” won Iran’s 2016 parliamentary elections, but the country’s opaque politics make it difficult to know for sure how to characterize the results. All candidates must be approved by the Guardian Council, which rejected thousands during the 2016 elections. Parliament is less powerful than the Supreme Leader and other institutions such as the Guardian Council, the judiciary, and the security services. The elections are happening in the context of escalating tensions with the United States.
Iraq Provincial – April 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Date tentative – election commission has set it as their preferred date. Originally scheduled for December 2018, but delayed multiple times following controversial national elections in May 2018 (the first since the defeat of ISIS).
Libya Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: In Transition
Libya remains in a civil war. The international community wants Libya to hold presidential or parliamentary elections this year. Unclear when the elections will actually happen.
Turkey Local - March 31, 2019 (re-run June 23, 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Party Free in 2018) – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Turkey held local elections on March 31, but invalidated the results of the Istanbul mayoral election after Ekrem Imamoglu from the opposition Republican Party (CHP) won by a small margin. They re-ran the election on June 23 after Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) alleged fraud. The move did not pay off – Imamoglu defeated AKP’s Binali Yildirim once again, by an even bigger margin. The election took place in the context of Turkey’s slide into authoritarianism. Although Turkey is not due for general elections until 2023, there have been rumors of possible snap elections.
Upcoming Elections
Tunisia Presidential – September 15, 2019 and Parliamentary – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and this year, the country will hold the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Ennadha, which presents itself as a moderate, pro-democracy Islamist party but holds some retrograde views, won the first post-Ben Ali elections, but in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the secularist Nidaa Tounes won the most seats. In 2018, Tunisia held long-delayed municipal elections, which saw independent candidates win the most seats, followed by Ennadha.
Prime Minister Youssef Chahed broke off from Nidaa Tounes to form Tahya Tounes, another secularist party, and it looks to be a close contest between the fractious secularist parties and Ennadha (Machrouu Tounes, another secularist party, broke from Nidaa Tounes in 2016 and currently has 25 seats in parliament).
President Beji Caid Essebsi of Nidaa Tounes, who became Tunisia’s first democratically-elected president in 2014, died at age 92 on July 25, 2019. The presidential election – originally scheduled for November – was moved to September 15.
Elizia Volkmann, Al-Monitor: “Independents flood Tunisian elections”
Tarek Amara and Ulf Laessing, Reuters: “Tunisia’s moderate Islamists are hoping the genial Beethoven fan they have nominated to run in next month’s presidential elections will break the mould in the Arab world by turning success at the ballot box into uncontested rule.”
DPA: “A Tunisian advocate of gay rights has filed a legal challenge against an electoral commission’s decision to block his bid to stand for president in the country’s upcoming election, the panel said on Sunday.”
Reuters: “Factbox: Tunisia’s main candidates for presidential elections”
Ambassador Richard LeBaron and Leah Hickert, Atlantic Council’s MENASource: “Do Arabs Want Democracy?….The first observation we would draw from the data is that Arabs have decidedly not rejected democracy as a form of government suitable for them.
Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Israel – nicknamed the “startup nation” – is a vibrant democracy. In September, Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s center-right Likud was unable to form a coalition following April’s elections. While parties friendly to Netanyahu won more seats than those friendly to Netanyahu’s main rival, former IDF chief Benny Gantz, coalition talks collapsed over the issue of drafting ultra-Orthodox into the military. One of Likud’s coalition partners, Avgidor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, supported conscription – and refused to budge – while religious parties adamantly opposed it, highlighting growing tensions between secular and religious Israelis. Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset and called for new elections rather than giving Gantz the chance to try to form a government. Additionally, Netanyahu faces corruption charges. The elections are happening in the middle of U.S. President Donald Trump’s quixotic attempt to seal the “deal of the century” between Israelis and Palestinians.
Chemi Shalev, Haaretz: “Israeli Election Mismatch Pits Fire-breathing Netanyahu Against Sluggish Gantz: The center-left candidate is storming the Prime Minister’s Office with all the enthusiasm of a prisoner consigned to hard labor”
Mehul Srivastava, Financial Times: “Netanyahu puts West Bank at heart of election strategy: Israel prime minister seizes on incendiary issue to rally the right”
Judy Maitz, Haaretz: “For These Young Israelis, Netanyahu’s Ties With Putin Are Not a Vote Winner: Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing rival Avigdor Lieberman are both chasing the Russian vote in September’s election, but young members of the community seem unimpressed by their efforts”
Afghanistan Presidential – September 28, 2019 (further delays possible)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Islamic Republic
Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, marred by violence and administrative problems. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election. Presidential campaign is gearing up right in the middle of peace negotiations between the United States and the Taliban.
Jon Gerberg and Sharif Hassan, Washington Post: “During Afghan elections, schools double as voting places — and become Taliban targets”
Pamela Constable, Washington Post: “Afghans voice fears that the U.S. is undercutting them in deal with the Taliban”
Iran Parliamentary – February 2020 and Presidential – May or June 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Theocratic Republic
Some analysts argue that “moderates” or “reformers” won Iran’s 2016 parliamentary elections, but the country’s opaque politics make it difficult to know for sure how to characterize the results. All candidates must be approved by the Guardian Council, which rejected thousands during the 2016 elections. Parliament is less powerful than the Supreme Leader and other institutions such as the Guardian Council, the judiciary, and the security services. The elections are happening in the context of escalating tensions with the United States.
Ehsan Bodaghi, Al-Monitor: “Hoopla over minor Iranian election may herald big fallout in 2020….For the past four terms, elections to choose assistants for the Islamic City Council of Tehran were low-key and inconsequential. But the fifth election, held July 26, led to a showdown between Iran’s political groups — perhaps foreshadowing what’s to come in February’s parliamentary elections.”
Iraq Provincial – April 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Date tentative – election commission has set it as their preferred date. Originally scheduled for December 2018, but delayed multiple times following controversial national elections in May 2018 (the first since the defeat of ISIS).
Omar Sattar, Al-Monitor: “Amendments to Iraqi provincial elections law spark controversy”
Libya Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: In Transition
Libya remains in a civil war. The international community wants Libya to hold presidential or parliamentary elections this year. Unclear when the elections will actually happen.
Andrew Green, World Politics Review: “After a two-day truce to observe the Eid al-Adha holiday, fighting has resumed in Libya. Any hope that the brief pause might signal a path to the resolution of a conflict that erupted in April, when military strongman Khalifa Haftar began his campaign to conquer the capital, Tripoli, quickly evaporated.”
Past Elections
Turkey Local – March 31, 2019 (re-run June 23, 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Party Free in 2018) – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Turkey held local elections on March 31, but invalidated the results of the Istanbul mayoral election after Ekrem Imamoglu from the opposition Republican Party (CHP) won by a small margin. They re-ran the election on June 23 after Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) alleged fraud. The move did not pay off – Imamoglu defeated AKP’s Binali Yildirim once again, by an even bigger margin. The election took place in the context of Turkey’s slide into authoritarianism. Although Turkey is not due for general elections until 2023, there have been rumors of possible snap elections.
Kareem Fahim, Washington Post: “Turkey’s government said Monday that it had indicted three popular mayors from Kurdish-majority provinces on terrorism charges and replaced them with state officials. The suspension came five months after the mayors won landslide victories in local polls.”
Serkan Demirtas, Hurriyet Daily News: “Dismissal of three mayors will toughen political climate in Turkey”
The Year Ahead: Middle East
Egypt local (due 2019 – date not set – delays likely); Libya (international community wants presidential or legislative elections this year – delays highly likely); Algeria presidential (July 4 – cancelled); Israel snap parliamentary (September 17); Afghanistan presidential (September 28); Tunisia presidential and parliamentary (September 15 and November 17); Iraq provincial (November 16); Iran parliamentary (February 2020); Palestinian Authority legislative (elections overdue – new government says they aim to hold elections but no date set)
Voters in Diyarbakir during Turkey’s 2017 constitutional referendum. The government just removed Diyarbakir’s mayor, along with two other mayors of Kurdish provinces. The mayors all won in landslides, but were indicted on terrorism charges. Photo credit: VOA/Mahmut Bozarslan (public domain)
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Category: This Week Tags: Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Libya, Tunisia, Turkey