Upcoming Elections
Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation
Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.
In last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.
This year, a number of genuine opposition figures seek to run for local office, but authorities are blocking their access to the ballot. In response, citizens are holding a series of protests, resulting in a harsh crackdown, including the detention of prominent opposition figures such as Alexei Navalny.
Marc Bennetts, Politico: “Russian police detained more than 800 protesters at a rally in Moscow on Saturday in a military-style operation designed as a show of force amid a sweeping crackdown against opposition leaders. The unsanctioned rally was the latest in a series of protests in Moscow to demand that pro-democracy opposition figures be allowed on the ballot for city assembly elections in September.”
Sabra Ayres, Los Angeles Times: “Underlining the new protests is a wave of uncertainty about elections in 2024, when Putin is scheduled to finish his fourth, and constitutionally final, term. Speculation about a Kremlin-managed transfer of power or a constitutional change to allow Putin to remain in charge has many younger Russians worried about what they view as an increasingly authoritarian state.”
Stephen Sestanovich, New York Times: “Is Putin Burning Out? The demonstrations of recent weeks may push him to mistakes that test his grip on power.”
Moldova Local – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.
The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.
RFE/RL: “The electoral period for the local elections in the Republic of Moldova, set for October 20, will start on August 19”
Liliana Barbăroșie, RFE/RL: “Local elections in the fall: a test for the new governing coalition”
Madalin Necsutu, Balkan Insight: “Moldova’s Democrats Face Possible Charges over Power Struggle. The announced investigation coincides with an arrest order for former Democrat leader Vladimir Plahotniuc in Russia.”
Belarus Legislative – November 7 (upper house, indirect) and 17, 2019 (lower house, direct) and Presidential – August 30, 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)
Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.
Belsat: “President Alyaksandr Lukashenka signed a number of decrees to set the dates for the elections to the Council of the Republic and the House of Representatives of the National Assembly of the Republic of Belarus of the 7th convocation. They will be held on 7 and 17 November 2019 respectively, state-run news agency BelTA reports.”
Valeriya Ulasik, Alena Shalayeva, and Tony Wesolowsky, RFE/RL: “Unflagging Protest: Belarus’s Opposition Inspired By A Pensioner And Her Outlawed Banner”
Andrei Sannikov, UpNorth: “The Independence Of Belarus Is A Matter Of International Security”
Georgia Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Georgia holds competitive but imperfect elections. The eccentric oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili runs the show from behind the scenes, despite holding no official office. Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakasvili’s pro-European, pro-NATO United National Movement. Ivanishvili’s candidate, Salome Zurabishvili, won last year’s disputed presidential election. Georgian Dream did well in by-elections in May.
In June, a series of protests broke out over Russia, which occupies 20 percent of Georgia’s territory. The government’s brutal response could harm the coalition ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.
Sasha Delemenchuk and Agit Mirzoev,, OC Media: “Georgia’s government is failing to take on right-wing extremism”
Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Kyrgyzstan began a halting transition to democracy following the Tulip Revolution of 2005, and following another revolution in 2010, the country switched to a parliamentary system and presidents were restricted to one term in office, in an effort to curtail presidential power and authoritarian backsliding. The current president, Sooronbay Jeenbekov, was elected in 2017, leading to Kyrgyzstan’s first peaceful transfer of power between two elected presidents. Jeenbekov had been backed by his predecessor, Almazbek Atambayev, but relations between the two have since soured. Atambayev staged a series of protests. The political climate remains tense ahead of next year’s parliamentary polls.
BBC: “Kyrgyzstan’s security forces have arrested former President Almazbek Atambayev after a botched raid on his property overnight resulted in the death of one officer.”
RFE/RL: “Authorities moved on the former president’s compound to carry out a subpoena in an unspecified investigation, but were met with bloody resistance by Atambaev’s supporters.”
Danil Usmanov and Nurjamal Djanibekova, Eurasianet: “Observers worry the political crisis sparked by this standoff will come at a cost to long-term stability and prosperity.”
Aidar Raav, Transitions Online: “The Perils (and Potential) of a Power Struggle in Kyrgyzstan: Does the ongoing spat between current and former presidents signal the possibility of another revolution, or evolution along a more pluralistic trajectory?”
Past Elections
Ukraine Snap Parliamentary – July 21, 2019 (following presidential elections earlier this year)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate largely centers on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.
Zelensky’s Servant of the People party previously did not have any seats in the Rada, but swept the elections to win an unprecedented parliamentary majority. More than half of the MPs are new.
UNIAN: “Ukraine’s CEC announces official results of parliamentary elections”
Max Seddon and Roman Olearchyk, Financial Times: “Russian president Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky have held talks after four Ukrainian soldiers were killed a day earlier in fresh clashes with Russian-backed separatists in the east of the country. Mr Zelensky on Wednesday told reporters that he had called Mr Putin immediately after the fighting and said: ‘This does not bring us closer to peace.’ He added that he asked Mr Putin ‘to influence the other side so that they stop killing our people.’”
Alexander Khrebet, Atlantic Council’s Ukraine Alert: “The results of the recent parliamentary elections show that reform parties have potential in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Pro-Western parties should be doing something they have never done before: contesting the Donbas. On July 21, three pro-Western parties collectively won 37 percent in the Donbas. These election results show that true political competition has come to the Donbas for the first time.”
Tommy Stubbington, Financial Times: “Ukraine’s markets have soared as overseas investors, who largely fled the country after Russia’s annexation of Crimea, warm to its new reform-minded president Volodymyr Zelensky.”
Armenia Snap Parliamentary – December 9, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
On December 9, Armenia’s snap parliamentary elections officially elected former MP and journalist Nikol Pashinyan as prime minister. The snap elections followed a series of protests that led to the resignation of Serzh Sargsyan, Armenia’s former president who became prime minister in an attempt to remain in power when faced with term limits. This has been dubbed Armenia’s “Velvet Revolution.” The Economist named Armenia country of the year for 2018.
Richard Giragosian, European Council on Foreign Relations: “Paradox of power: Russia, Armenia, and Europe after the Velvet Revolution”
Tina Chakarian, Armenian Mirror-Spectator: “Velvety Artistic Representation at Venice Biennale”
Eurasia This Week – August 8, 2019
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Last Updated: August 24, 2019 by 21votes
August 8, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Eurasia on Thursdays. Click the map pins.
Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation
Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.
In last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.
This year, a number of genuine opposition figures seek to run for local office, but authorities are blocking their access to the ballot. In response, citizens are holding a series of protests, resulting in a harsh crackdown, including the detention of prominent opposition figures such as Alexei Navalny.
Moldova Local – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.
The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.
Belarus Legislative - November 7 (upper house, indirect) and 17, 2019 (lower house, direct) and Presidential - August 30, 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)
Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.
Georgia Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Georgia holds competitive but imperfect elections. The eccentric oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili runs the show from behind the scenes, despite holding no official office. Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakasvili’s pro-European, pro-NATO United National Movement. Ivanishvili’s candidate, Salome Zurabishvili, won last year’s disputed presidential election. Georgian Dream did well in by-elections in May.
In June, a series of protests broke out over Russia, which occupies 20 percent of Georgia’s territory. The government’s brutal response could harm the coalition ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.
Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Kyrgyzstan began a halting transition to democracy following the Tulip Revolution of 2005, and following another revolution in 2010, the country switched to a parliamentary system and presidents were restricted to one term in office, in an effort to curtail presidential power and authoritarian backsliding. The current president, Sooronbay Jeenbekov, was elected in 2017, leading to Kyrgyzstan’s first peaceful transfer of power between two elected presidents. Jeenbekov had been backed by his predecessor, Almazbek Atambayev, but relations between the two have since soured. Atambayev staged a series of protests. The political climate remains tense ahead of next year’s parliamentary polls.
Ukraine Snap Parliamentary – July 21, 2019 (following presidential elections earlier this year)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate largely centers on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.
Zelensky’s Servant of the People party previously did not have any seats in the Rada, but swept the elections to win an unprecedented parliamentary majority. More than half of the MPs are new.
Armenia Snap Parliamentary – December 9, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
On December 9, Armenia’s snap parliamentary elections officially elected former MP and journalist Nikol Pashinyan as prime minister. The snap elections followed a series of protests that led to the resignation of Serzh Sargsyan, Armenia’s former president who became prime minister in an attempt to remain in power when faced with term limits. This has been dubbed Armenia’s “Velvet Revolution.” The Economist named Armenia country of the year for 2018.
Upcoming Elections
Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation
Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.
In last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.
This year, a number of genuine opposition figures seek to run for local office, but authorities are blocking their access to the ballot. In response, citizens are holding a series of protests, resulting in a harsh crackdown, including the detention of prominent opposition figures such as Alexei Navalny.
Marc Bennetts, Politico: “Russian police detained more than 800 protesters at a rally in Moscow on Saturday in a military-style operation designed as a show of force amid a sweeping crackdown against opposition leaders. The unsanctioned rally was the latest in a series of protests in Moscow to demand that pro-democracy opposition figures be allowed on the ballot for city assembly elections in September.”
Sabra Ayres, Los Angeles Times: “Underlining the new protests is a wave of uncertainty about elections in 2024, when Putin is scheduled to finish his fourth, and constitutionally final, term. Speculation about a Kremlin-managed transfer of power or a constitutional change to allow Putin to remain in charge has many younger Russians worried about what they view as an increasingly authoritarian state.”
Stephen Sestanovich, New York Times: “Is Putin Burning Out? The demonstrations of recent weeks may push him to mistakes that test his grip on power.”
Moldova Local – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.
The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.
RFE/RL: “The electoral period for the local elections in the Republic of Moldova, set for October 20, will start on August 19”
Liliana Barbăroșie, RFE/RL: “Local elections in the fall: a test for the new governing coalition”
Madalin Necsutu, Balkan Insight: “Moldova’s Democrats Face Possible Charges over Power Struggle. The announced investigation coincides with an arrest order for former Democrat leader Vladimir Plahotniuc in Russia.”
Belarus Legislative – November 7 (upper house, indirect) and 17, 2019 (lower house, direct) and Presidential – August 30, 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)
Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.
Belsat: “President Alyaksandr Lukashenka signed a number of decrees to set the dates for the elections to the Council of the Republic and the House of Representatives of the National Assembly of the Republic of Belarus of the 7th convocation. They will be held on 7 and 17 November 2019 respectively, state-run news agency BelTA reports.”
Valeriya Ulasik, Alena Shalayeva, and Tony Wesolowsky, RFE/RL: “Unflagging Protest: Belarus’s Opposition Inspired By A Pensioner And Her Outlawed Banner”
Andrei Sannikov, UpNorth: “The Independence Of Belarus Is A Matter Of International Security”
Georgia Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Georgia holds competitive but imperfect elections. The eccentric oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili runs the show from behind the scenes, despite holding no official office. Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakasvili’s pro-European, pro-NATO United National Movement. Ivanishvili’s candidate, Salome Zurabishvili, won last year’s disputed presidential election. Georgian Dream did well in by-elections in May.
In June, a series of protests broke out over Russia, which occupies 20 percent of Georgia’s territory. The government’s brutal response could harm the coalition ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.
Sasha Delemenchuk and Agit Mirzoev,, OC Media: “Georgia’s government is failing to take on right-wing extremism”
Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Kyrgyzstan began a halting transition to democracy following the Tulip Revolution of 2005, and following another revolution in 2010, the country switched to a parliamentary system and presidents were restricted to one term in office, in an effort to curtail presidential power and authoritarian backsliding. The current president, Sooronbay Jeenbekov, was elected in 2017, leading to Kyrgyzstan’s first peaceful transfer of power between two elected presidents. Jeenbekov had been backed by his predecessor, Almazbek Atambayev, but relations between the two have since soured. Atambayev staged a series of protests. The political climate remains tense ahead of next year’s parliamentary polls.
BBC: “Kyrgyzstan’s security forces have arrested former President Almazbek Atambayev after a botched raid on his property overnight resulted in the death of one officer.”
RFE/RL: “Authorities moved on the former president’s compound to carry out a subpoena in an unspecified investigation, but were met with bloody resistance by Atambaev’s supporters.”
Danil Usmanov and Nurjamal Djanibekova, Eurasianet: “Observers worry the political crisis sparked by this standoff will come at a cost to long-term stability and prosperity.”
Aidar Raav, Transitions Online: “The Perils (and Potential) of a Power Struggle in Kyrgyzstan: Does the ongoing spat between current and former presidents signal the possibility of another revolution, or evolution along a more pluralistic trajectory?”
Past Elections
Ukraine Snap Parliamentary – July 21, 2019 (following presidential elections earlier this year)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate largely centers on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.
Zelensky’s Servant of the People party previously did not have any seats in the Rada, but swept the elections to win an unprecedented parliamentary majority. More than half of the MPs are new.
UNIAN: “Ukraine’s CEC announces official results of parliamentary elections”
Max Seddon and Roman Olearchyk, Financial Times: “Russian president Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky have held talks after four Ukrainian soldiers were killed a day earlier in fresh clashes with Russian-backed separatists in the east of the country. Mr Zelensky on Wednesday told reporters that he had called Mr Putin immediately after the fighting and said: ‘This does not bring us closer to peace.’ He added that he asked Mr Putin ‘to influence the other side so that they stop killing our people.’”
Alexander Khrebet, Atlantic Council’s Ukraine Alert: “The results of the recent parliamentary elections show that reform parties have potential in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Pro-Western parties should be doing something they have never done before: contesting the Donbas. On July 21, three pro-Western parties collectively won 37 percent in the Donbas. These election results show that true political competition has come to the Donbas for the first time.”
Tommy Stubbington, Financial Times: “Ukraine’s markets have soared as overseas investors, who largely fled the country after Russia’s annexation of Crimea, warm to its new reform-minded president Volodymyr Zelensky.”
Armenia Snap Parliamentary – December 9, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
On December 9, Armenia’s snap parliamentary elections officially elected former MP and journalist Nikol Pashinyan as prime minister. The snap elections followed a series of protests that led to the resignation of Serzh Sargsyan, Armenia’s former president who became prime minister in an attempt to remain in power when faced with term limits. This has been dubbed Armenia’s “Velvet Revolution.” The Economist named Armenia country of the year for 2018.
Richard Giragosian, European Council on Foreign Relations: “Paradox of power: Russia, Armenia, and Europe after the Velvet Revolution”
Tina Chakarian, Armenian Mirror-Spectator: “Velvety Artistic Representation at Venice Biennale”
The Year Ahead: Eurasia
Russia local (September 8); Moldova local (October 20); Belarus parliamentary (November 17); Uzbekistan parliamentary (December 19); Azerbaijan local (December 27); Tajikistan parliamentary (March)
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Category: This Week Tags: Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Ukraine