Upcoming Elections
India, Haryana State and Maharashtra State Assemblies – October 2019 or November 2019 and Jharkhand State Assembly – November 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
India has 29 states and seven union territories. Indian states are big – Maharashtra, whose capital is Mumbai, has 112 million people, Haryana 25 million, and Jharkhand 32 million. Coalitions headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently control all three state legislatures. The BJP won a massive victory in elections to the Lok Sabha, India’s national parliament, earlier this year, giving it a second term in power as the majority party able to govern without coalition partners, in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – did well in a series of state elections late last year but is reeling from the whiplash of defeat in the Lok Sabha polls. The state elections are happening in the context of a renewed push from Modi to institute “one nation, one election” – a proposal to hold state elections at the same time as elections to the Lok Sabha.
India Today: “Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Monday [August 5] announced the revocation of Article 370 – which gave special status to the state of Jammu and Kashmir, thus fulfilling its election promise and creating tremors across the political circuit.”
Asfandyar Mir, Washington Post’s Monkey Cage: “Here’s how India’s decision to cut Kashmir’s autonomy will affect South Asia — and the world”
Gyan Varma, LiveMint: “BJP starts election preparedness in four states. The BJP appointed prominent leaders as in-charge for state polls, for the upcoming assembly election in Delhi, Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana. All four states are expected to go to the polls later this year.”
Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. However, a series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets on at least one occasion – could boost the pro-democracy camp.
James Griffiths, CNN: “Hundreds of pro-democracy activists began on Friday what is intended to be a three-day occupation of Hong Kong’s international airport, part of a series of demonstrations marking the 10th straight weekend of protests across the Asian financial hub.”
Channel News Asia: “Hong Kong lawyers march in silence to support anti-government protesters”
Jeffie Lam, South China Morning Post: “‘Liberate Hong Kong; revolution of our times’: Who came up with this protest chant and why is the government worried?”
Kris Cheng, Hong Kong Free Press: “Beijing deems Hong Kong protests ‘colour revolution,’ will not rule out intervention”
Austin Ramzy and Tiffany May, New York Times: “The mainland authorities have increasingly signaled their preparations to handle mass protests. A drill on Tuesday by 12,000 mainland police officers in Shenzhen included riot police confronting people in black clothing and yellow helmets — the unofficial uniform of protesters in Hong Kong.”
The Economist: “Hong Kong remains crucially important to mainland China: How the Communist Party react to protests there will determine the future of Asia’s pre-eminent financial centre.”
Ben Westcott, CNN: “With Hong Kong divided, Beijing tries new tactic to discredit protest movement”
Jianli Yang and Aaron Rhodes, The American Interest: “Xi’s Hong Kong Options—and Ours: Hong Kong can show Xi Jinping that repressing freedom is a no-win proposition.”
Sri Lanka Presidential – December 7, 2019 and Parliamentary – February 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Sri Lanka is still feeling the aftershocks of a series of terrorist attacks over Easter 2019 and a 2018 political crisis in which President Maithripala Sirisena tried to dissolve parliament and remove Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe from office and replace him with former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was president from 2005 to 2015. Ultimately, Wickremesinghe was reinstated, but the crisis has deep roots and tensions remain high in Sri Lankan politics.
The two major parties are Sirisena’s center-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Wickremesinghe’s center-right United National Party. Rajapaksa left the SLPF in 2018 and now leads the populist Sri Lanka People’s Front/Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). In the last presidential elections, Rajapaksa surprisingly lost to Sirisena, who embarked on a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Rajapaksa had built up. Sirisena is eligible to run for a second term and could run again. His potential challengers include Wickremesinghe and one of Rajapaksa’s siblings (Rajapaksa is not eligible to run for president again due to term limits adopted during Sirisena’s presidency). Rajapaksa’s SLPP did well in local elections last year. Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice, and the upcoming elections could well determine whether it strengthens or deteriorates.
Channel News Asia: “Sri Lankan presidential hopeful Gotabaya Rajapaksa renounces US citizenship.”
Rehab Mahamoor, The Diplomat: “The Problem With Sri Lanka’s New ‘False News’ Law: Sri Lanka doesn’t need more laws. It needs to use the laws currently on its books responsibly.”
Shihar Aneez and Ranga Sirilal, Reuters: “Sri Lanka’s tourism industry, badly hurt by Easter day bombings, is showing signs of gradual recovery, industry executives say, although a national election later this year is likely to weigh on holiday season arrivals.”
Taiwan Presidential and Legislative – January 11, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republi
Taiwan has a robust democracy. The two main parties are President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT, founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate. Tsai won the DPP presidential primary, and the KMT holds its own primary next month. Candidates include Terry Guo, Taiwan’s richest man, and Beijing’s choice, Han Kuo-yu, the populist mayor of Kaohsiung, a major port city in the south. The DPP currently controls the Legislative Yuan. Last year’s local elections swept the KMT back into many local offices that they had lost during the 2014 local elections – with some interference from China. China is expected to attempt to influence the upcoming elections as well.
Minnie Chan, South China Morning Post: “Taiwan’s former legislative speaker Wang Jin-pyng had a two-hour meeting with billionaire Terry Gou Tai-ming over the weekend, fuelling speculation they could team up with Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je to launch a presidential bid in January. Foxconn founder Gou, who lost to Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu in the opposition Kuomintang’s primary race, met Wang in Taipei after returning from Europe, Gou’s spokeswoman Amanda Liu said on Sunday.”
Joy YT Chang, South China Morning Post: “Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je launched a new political party called the Taiwan People’s Party on Tuesday. It could chip away at the two biggest political camps that have traditionally dominated Taiwan’s politics. Many speculate that the former trauma surgeon would join Taiwan’s 2020 presidential election and team up with Foxconn’s founder Terry Gou.”
Yimou Lee and I-hwa Cheng, Reuters: “Paid ‘news’: China using Taiwan media to win hearts and minds on island – sources”
The Economist: “China is trying to browbeat Taiwan by keeping its tourists away. It will have little impact on next year’s elections.”
Philippines Village Elections – May 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Paige Occeñola, Rappler: “Disinformation campaigns: Thirst traps and ‘hugot’ in 2019 Philippine elections – A new study shows how online propaganda operations in the Philippines have developed new underground tactics.”
Craig Silverman, Buzzfeed: “The Philippines Was A Test Of Facebook’s New Approach To Countering Disinformation. Things Got Worse.”
Raissa Robles, South China Morning Post: “A controversial politician with links to American white supremacists has been disqualified from the Philippine congress because he is not young enough for the youth group he was trying to represent. Ronald Cardema – who is close to, and a supporter of, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte – tried to claim a seat in the House of Representatives as the nominee of a party representing the president’s young supporters, Duterte Youth.”
Charissa Luci-Atienza, Manila Bulletin: “Calls to postpone the May 2020 barangay and Sangguniang Kabataan (SK) elections have snowballed at the House of Representatives after more lawmakers filed bills seeking to reset such polls.”
Burma Parliamentary – Expected late 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Burma, also called Myanmar, seemed to be moving toward democracy following the country’s first credible, relatively free elections in 2015, which swept Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) to power following decades of military dictatorship. Once held up by the global community as a paragon of moral authority for giving up her own freedom in the fight for democracy, Suu Kyi’s tenure as the country’s de facto leader has disappointed many. Burma still has hundreds of political prisoners, including many who were arrested after the NLD came to power. Ethnic conflicts continue between the dominant Burmans, who comprise roughly 60 percent of the population, and different minority groups. The crisis in Rakhine or Arakan State with the Muslim Rohingya, which some have called a genocide, has created 700,000 refugees in neighboring Bangladesh and 128,000 internally displaced people. During by-elections in 2018, the NLD won seven out of 13 seats, but lost five out of six in non-Burman areas.
Wei Yan Aung, The Irrawaddy: “Thirty-one years ago today [August 8], almost every citizen in Myanmar took to the streets to topple dictator Ne Win’s oppressive socialist regime, which had ruled the country with an iron fist since 1962.”
Michael Sainsbury, Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter: “In Myanmar, a unity
still out of reach: Perpetual conflicts put Aung San Suu Kyi’s peace plan – and political future – on shaky ground.”
Shibani Mahtani, Washington Post: “North Korea, China and Russia are arming Myanmar’s military despite genocide accusations, U.N. report finds”
Preeti Jha, The Diplomat: “Beware Myanmar’s New Information War: The government’s internet shutdown in the country’s restive west is a worrying move amid growing prosecutions of peaceful critics.”
Sarah A. Topol, New York Times: “The Schoolteacher and the Genocide”
Singapore General – April 2021 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
People’s Action Party, co-founded by Lee Kuan Yew Singapore’s first prime minister, has been in power since 1959. While elections aren’t rigged in the classic sense (no stuffed ballot boxes), they take place in a context that effectively prevents the opposition from actually taking power, and the opposition has not historically run to actually win – their pitch to voters has been promises to provide a check on the PAP. The government uses a variety of tactics– including libel lawsuits, influence over the media, and laws that restrict political speech – to hamstring the opposition, while arguing that Singaporeans support PAP because it has governed competently. The 2015 elections gave PAP 83 out of the 89 elected seats in parliament. The next elections are due in 2021, but Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (Lee Kuan Yew’s son) has hinted that he would call early elections.
AFP: “A new opposition party backed by the estranged brother of Singapore’s prime minister was launched on Saturday in a fresh challenge to the government as speculation mounts elections could be called soon. The Progress Singapore Party (PSP) – aiming to contest an election due by 2021 but widely expected earlier – is led by Tan Cheng Bock, a medical doctor and former government stalwart who once ran for president and nearly defeated the establishment candidate.”
Jewel Stolarchuk, The Independent (Singapore): “GE may not be held this year but opposition parties ‘need to start preparing early’:….Although many Singaporeans have speculated that the next election – which must be held by 15 April 2021 – could be called as early as this year, there are no clear indications that the GE will take place in 2019.”
Past Elections
Papua New Guinea Local – July 20-25, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Papua New Guinea’s politics are chaotic, and no single party has ever commanded a majority in parliament. Coalitions shift frequently. James Marape became prime minister in May 2018 when former prime minister Peter O’Neill lost a no-confidence vote after being in power for eight years. It is unclear whether Marape will effectively address Papua New Guinea’s continuing problems of corruption and mismanagement of the economy. For the local elections, voters will elect representatives to 29 urban and 302 rural local level government assemblies.
Leiao Gerega, Papua New Guinea Post-Courier: “The 2019 local level government election came to an official closure last Friday with the handing over of the ward writs by Electoral Commissioner Patilias Gamato to the Minister for Inter-government Relations Pila Niningi. The event marks the completion of the election process administered and conducted by the PNG Electoral Commission and paves way for swearing-in and election of the presidents and mayors of LLGs.”
Bal Kama, Australian National University’s DevPolicy Blog: “‘Take Back PNG’: Prime Minister Marape and his audacious vision for PNG”
Japan Legislative (half of upper house) – July 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Shinzo Abe’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) sought to gain a two-thirds majority in the upper house (which it already held in the lower house with coalition partner Komeito, a Buddhist religious party) in order to revisit and possibly amend Japan’s pacifist constitution. LDP and Komeito did maintain their majority in the upper house, but fell short of the super-majority.
Thisanka Siripala, The Diplomat: “Japan’s Upper House Election Results: A Win for Diversity? Despite a record number of female and handicapped candidates winning seats, hurdles remain.”
Brett Fujioka, Tablet: “Japan’s Cynical Romantics, Precursors to the Alt-Right: Long before Pepe the Frog endorsed Trump, Japanese internet users created a new, ‘very online’ far-right political style. But why did it reappear decades later in the U.S.?”
Thailand Parliamentary – March 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Constitutional Monarchy
Richard C. Paddock and Alisa Dogramadzieva, New York Times: “Thailand’s Former Leader, in Exile and Wanted at Home, Gets Serbian Citizenship”
Kay Johnson, Panu Wongcha-um and Panarat Thepgumpanat, Reuters: “Thailand’s army is fighting a “hybrid war” waged by enemies who are using “fake news” to turn young Thais against the military and the monarchy, the army chief said in a rare interview on Friday.”
Joshua Kurlantzick, Council on Foreign Relations’ Asia Unbound: “Over the past two years, and even as Thailand has made a transition from junta rule to, now, some kind of hybrid rule, following hotly contested but unfair elections, Thai activists living abroad have become increasingly imperiled.”
Malaysia General – May 9, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
In last year’s parliamentary elections, Mahathir Mohamed led his Pakatan Haratan (Alliance of Hope) party to a surprise victory over the Barisan Nasional coalition and its primary member, United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which had been in power since Malaysia’s 1957 independence. Mahathir had teamed up with his former arch-rival Anwar Ibrahim, a long-time pro-democracy activist. Mahathir promised not to govern for more than three years, and many expected him to transfer power to Anwar, but it is unclear whether this will actually happen.
Anisah Shukry, Bloomberg: “Malaysian civil society groups are urging Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad to set a date for when he will hand over power to former rival Anwar Ibrahim. And they want it to be between a year from now to May 2021. The groups include Bersih, or Coalition for Clean and Fair Elections, which was behind one of the country’s biggest protests in 2015 that drew an estimated 300,000 people to a rally campaigning for election reform and anti-corruption.”
Channel News Asia: “Last year, Dr Mahathir returned from retirement to lead Pakatan Harapan (PH) to score a historic win in the 14th general election and dethroned the Barisan Nasional coalition from its six-decade rule. While Dr Mahathir was appointed as prime minister, an eventual handover of the premiership to Mr Anwar, Parti Keadilan Rakyat’s (PKR) president, was on the cards.”
Asia This Week – August 9, 2019
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Last Updated: August 19, 2019 by 21votes
August 9, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Asia and the Pacific on Fridays. Click the map pins.
India, Haryana State and Maharashtra State Assemblies – October 2019 or November 2019 and Jharkhand State Assembly – November 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
India has 29 states and seven union territories. Indian states are big – Maharashtra, whose capital is Mumbai, has 112 million people, Haryana 25 million, and Jharkhand 32 million. Coalitions headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently control all three state legislatures. The BJP won a massive victory in elections to the Lok Sabha, India’s national parliament, earlier this year, giving it a second term in power as the majority party able to govern without coalition partners, in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – did well in a series of state elections late last year but is reeling from the whiplash of defeat in the Lok Sabha polls. The state elections are happening in the context of a renewed push from Modi to institute “one nation, one election” – a proposal to hold state elections at the same time as elections to the Lok Sabha.
Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. However, a series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets on at least one occasion – could boost the pro-democracy camp.
Taiwan Presidential and Legislative – January 11, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republi
Taiwan has a robust democracy. The two main parties are President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT, founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate. Tsai won the DPP presidential primary, and the KMT holds its own primary next month. Candidates include Terry Guo, Taiwan’s richest man, and Beijing’s choice, Han Kuo-yu, the populist mayor of Kaohsiung, a major port city in the south. The DPP currently controls the Legislative Yuan. Last year’s local elections swept the KMT back into many local offices that they had lost during the 2014 local elections – with some interference from China. China is expected to attempt to influence the upcoming elections as well.
Philippines Village Elections – May 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Sri Lanka Presidential – December 7, 2019 and Parliamentary – February 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Sri Lanka is still feeling the aftershocks of a series of terrorist attacks over Easter 2019 and a 2018 political crisis in which President Maithripala Sirisena tried to dissolve parliament and remove Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe from office and replace him with former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was president from 2005 to 2015. Ultimately, Wickremesinghe was reinstated, but the crisis has deep roots and tensions remain high in Sri Lankan politics.
The two major parties are Sirisena’s center-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Wickremesinghe’s center-right United National Party. Rajapaksa left the SLPF in 2018 and now leads the populist Sri Lanka People’s Front/Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). In the last presidential elections, Rajapaksa surprisingly lost to Sirisena, who embarked on a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Rajapaksa had built up. Sirisena is eligible to run for a second term and could run again. His potential challengers include Wickremesinghe and one of Rajapaksa’s siblings (Rajapaksa is not eligible to run for president again due to term limits adopted during Sirisena’s presidency). Rajapaksa’s SLPP did well in local elections last year. Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice, and the upcoming elections could well determine whether it strengthens or deteriorates.
Singapore General – April 2021 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
People’s Action Party, co-founded by Lee Kuan Yew Singapore’s first prime minister, has been in power since 1959. While elections aren’t rigged in the classic sense (no stuffed ballot boxes), they take place in a context that effectively prevents the opposition from actually taking power, and the opposition has not historically run to actually win – their pitch to voters has been promises to provide a check on the PAP. The government uses a variety of tactics– including libel lawsuits, influence over the media, and laws that restrict political speech – to hamstring the opposition, while arguing that Singaporeans support PAP because it has governed competently. The 2015 elections gave PAP 83 out of the 89 elected seats in parliament. The next elections are due in 2021, but Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (Lee Kuan Yew’s son) has hinted that he would call early elections.
Papua New Guinea Local – July 20-25, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Papua New Guinea’s politics are chaotic, and no single party has ever commanded a majority in parliament. Coalitions shift frequently. James Marape became prime minister in May 2018 when former prime minister Peter O’Neill lost a no-confidence vote after being in power for eight years. It is unclear whether Marape will effectively address Papua New Guinea’s continuing problems of corruption and mismanagement of the economy. For the local elections, voters will elect representatives to 29 urban and 302 rural local level government assemblies.
Japan Legislative (half of upper house) – July 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Shinzo Abe’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) sought to gain a two-thirds majority in the upper house (which it already held in the lower house with coalition partner Komeito, a Buddhist religious party) in order to revisit and possibly amend Japan’s pacifist constitution. LDP and Komeito did maintain their majority in the upper house, but fell short of the super-majority.
Thailand Parliamentary – March 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Constitutional Monarchy
Malaysia General - May 9, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
In last year’s parliamentary elections, Mahathir Mohamed led his Pakatan Haratan (Alliance of Hope) party to a surprise victory over the Barisan Nasional coalition and its primary member, United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which had been in power since Malaysia’s 1957 independence. Mahathir had teamed up with his former arch-rival Anwar Ibrahim, a long-time pro-democracy activist. Mahathir promised not to govern for more than three years, and many expected him to transfer power to Anwar, but it is unclear whether this will actually happen.
Upcoming Elections
India, Haryana State and Maharashtra State Assemblies – October 2019 or November 2019 and Jharkhand State Assembly – November 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
India has 29 states and seven union territories. Indian states are big – Maharashtra, whose capital is Mumbai, has 112 million people, Haryana 25 million, and Jharkhand 32 million. Coalitions headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently control all three state legislatures. The BJP won a massive victory in elections to the Lok Sabha, India’s national parliament, earlier this year, giving it a second term in power as the majority party able to govern without coalition partners, in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – did well in a series of state elections late last year but is reeling from the whiplash of defeat in the Lok Sabha polls. The state elections are happening in the context of a renewed push from Modi to institute “one nation, one election” – a proposal to hold state elections at the same time as elections to the Lok Sabha.
India Today: “Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Monday [August 5] announced the revocation of Article 370 – which gave special status to the state of Jammu and Kashmir, thus fulfilling its election promise and creating tremors across the political circuit.”
Asfandyar Mir, Washington Post’s Monkey Cage: “Here’s how India’s decision to cut Kashmir’s autonomy will affect South Asia — and the world”
Gyan Varma, LiveMint: “BJP starts election preparedness in four states. The BJP appointed prominent leaders as in-charge for state polls, for the upcoming assembly election in Delhi, Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana. All four states are expected to go to the polls later this year.”
Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. However, a series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets on at least one occasion – could boost the pro-democracy camp.
James Griffiths, CNN: “Hundreds of pro-democracy activists began on Friday what is intended to be a three-day occupation of Hong Kong’s international airport, part of a series of demonstrations marking the 10th straight weekend of protests across the Asian financial hub.”
Channel News Asia: “Hong Kong lawyers march in silence to support anti-government protesters”
Jeffie Lam, South China Morning Post: “‘Liberate Hong Kong; revolution of our times’: Who came up with this protest chant and why is the government worried?”
Kris Cheng, Hong Kong Free Press: “Beijing deems Hong Kong protests ‘colour revolution,’ will not rule out intervention”
Austin Ramzy and Tiffany May, New York Times: “The mainland authorities have increasingly signaled their preparations to handle mass protests. A drill on Tuesday by 12,000 mainland police officers in Shenzhen included riot police confronting people in black clothing and yellow helmets — the unofficial uniform of protesters in Hong Kong.”
The Economist: “Hong Kong remains crucially important to mainland China: How the Communist Party react to protests there will determine the future of Asia’s pre-eminent financial centre.”
Ben Westcott, CNN: “With Hong Kong divided, Beijing tries new tactic to discredit protest movement”
Jianli Yang and Aaron Rhodes, The American Interest: “Xi’s Hong Kong Options—and Ours: Hong Kong can show Xi Jinping that repressing freedom is a no-win proposition.”
Sri Lanka Presidential – December 7, 2019 and Parliamentary – February 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Sri Lanka is still feeling the aftershocks of a series of terrorist attacks over Easter 2019 and a 2018 political crisis in which President Maithripala Sirisena tried to dissolve parliament and remove Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe from office and replace him with former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was president from 2005 to 2015. Ultimately, Wickremesinghe was reinstated, but the crisis has deep roots and tensions remain high in Sri Lankan politics.
The two major parties are Sirisena’s center-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Wickremesinghe’s center-right United National Party. Rajapaksa left the SLPF in 2018 and now leads the populist Sri Lanka People’s Front/Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). In the last presidential elections, Rajapaksa surprisingly lost to Sirisena, who embarked on a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Rajapaksa had built up. Sirisena is eligible to run for a second term and could run again. His potential challengers include Wickremesinghe and one of Rajapaksa’s siblings (Rajapaksa is not eligible to run for president again due to term limits adopted during Sirisena’s presidency). Rajapaksa’s SLPP did well in local elections last year. Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice, and the upcoming elections could well determine whether it strengthens or deteriorates.
Channel News Asia: “Sri Lankan presidential hopeful Gotabaya Rajapaksa renounces US citizenship.”
Rehab Mahamoor, The Diplomat: “The Problem With Sri Lanka’s New ‘False News’ Law: Sri Lanka doesn’t need more laws. It needs to use the laws currently on its books responsibly.”
Shihar Aneez and Ranga Sirilal, Reuters: “Sri Lanka’s tourism industry, badly hurt by Easter day bombings, is showing signs of gradual recovery, industry executives say, although a national election later this year is likely to weigh on holiday season arrivals.”
Taiwan Presidential and Legislative – January 11, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republi
Taiwan has a robust democracy. The two main parties are President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT, founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate. Tsai won the DPP presidential primary, and the KMT holds its own primary next month. Candidates include Terry Guo, Taiwan’s richest man, and Beijing’s choice, Han Kuo-yu, the populist mayor of Kaohsiung, a major port city in the south. The DPP currently controls the Legislative Yuan. Last year’s local elections swept the KMT back into many local offices that they had lost during the 2014 local elections – with some interference from China. China is expected to attempt to influence the upcoming elections as well.
Minnie Chan, South China Morning Post: “Taiwan’s former legislative speaker Wang Jin-pyng had a two-hour meeting with billionaire Terry Gou Tai-ming over the weekend, fuelling speculation they could team up with Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je to launch a presidential bid in January. Foxconn founder Gou, who lost to Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu in the opposition Kuomintang’s primary race, met Wang in Taipei after returning from Europe, Gou’s spokeswoman Amanda Liu said on Sunday.”
Joy YT Chang, South China Morning Post: “Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je launched a new political party called the Taiwan People’s Party on Tuesday. It could chip away at the two biggest political camps that have traditionally dominated Taiwan’s politics. Many speculate that the former trauma surgeon would join Taiwan’s 2020 presidential election and team up with Foxconn’s founder Terry Gou.”
Yimou Lee and I-hwa Cheng, Reuters: “Paid ‘news’: China using Taiwan media to win hearts and minds on island – sources”
The Economist: “China is trying to browbeat Taiwan by keeping its tourists away. It will have little impact on next year’s elections.”
Philippines Village Elections – May 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Paige Occeñola, Rappler: “Disinformation campaigns: Thirst traps and ‘hugot’ in 2019 Philippine elections – A new study shows how online propaganda operations in the Philippines have developed new underground tactics.”
Craig Silverman, Buzzfeed: “The Philippines Was A Test Of Facebook’s New Approach To Countering Disinformation. Things Got Worse.”
Raissa Robles, South China Morning Post: “A controversial politician with links to American white supremacists has been disqualified from the Philippine congress because he is not young enough for the youth group he was trying to represent. Ronald Cardema – who is close to, and a supporter of, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte – tried to claim a seat in the House of Representatives as the nominee of a party representing the president’s young supporters, Duterte Youth.”
Charissa Luci-Atienza, Manila Bulletin: “Calls to postpone the May 2020 barangay and Sangguniang Kabataan (SK) elections have snowballed at the House of Representatives after more lawmakers filed bills seeking to reset such polls.”
Burma Parliamentary – Expected late 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Burma, also called Myanmar, seemed to be moving toward democracy following the country’s first credible, relatively free elections in 2015, which swept Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) to power following decades of military dictatorship. Once held up by the global community as a paragon of moral authority for giving up her own freedom in the fight for democracy, Suu Kyi’s tenure as the country’s de facto leader has disappointed many. Burma still has hundreds of political prisoners, including many who were arrested after the NLD came to power. Ethnic conflicts continue between the dominant Burmans, who comprise roughly 60 percent of the population, and different minority groups. The crisis in Rakhine or Arakan State with the Muslim Rohingya, which some have called a genocide, has created 700,000 refugees in neighboring Bangladesh and 128,000 internally displaced people. During by-elections in 2018, the NLD won seven out of 13 seats, but lost five out of six in non-Burman areas.
Wei Yan Aung, The Irrawaddy: “Thirty-one years ago today [August 8], almost every citizen in Myanmar took to the streets to topple dictator Ne Win’s oppressive socialist regime, which had ruled the country with an iron fist since 1962.”
Michael Sainsbury, Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter: “In Myanmar, a unity
still out of reach: Perpetual conflicts put Aung San Suu Kyi’s peace plan – and political future – on shaky ground.”
Shibani Mahtani, Washington Post: “North Korea, China and Russia are arming Myanmar’s military despite genocide accusations, U.N. report finds”
Preeti Jha, The Diplomat: “Beware Myanmar’s New Information War: The government’s internet shutdown in the country’s restive west is a worrying move amid growing prosecutions of peaceful critics.”
Sarah A. Topol, New York Times: “The Schoolteacher and the Genocide”
Singapore General – April 2021 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
People’s Action Party, co-founded by Lee Kuan Yew Singapore’s first prime minister, has been in power since 1959. While elections aren’t rigged in the classic sense (no stuffed ballot boxes), they take place in a context that effectively prevents the opposition from actually taking power, and the opposition has not historically run to actually win – their pitch to voters has been promises to provide a check on the PAP. The government uses a variety of tactics– including libel lawsuits, influence over the media, and laws that restrict political speech – to hamstring the opposition, while arguing that Singaporeans support PAP because it has governed competently. The 2015 elections gave PAP 83 out of the 89 elected seats in parliament. The next elections are due in 2021, but Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (Lee Kuan Yew’s son) has hinted that he would call early elections.
AFP: “A new opposition party backed by the estranged brother of Singapore’s prime minister was launched on Saturday in a fresh challenge to the government as speculation mounts elections could be called soon. The Progress Singapore Party (PSP) – aiming to contest an election due by 2021 but widely expected earlier – is led by Tan Cheng Bock, a medical doctor and former government stalwart who once ran for president and nearly defeated the establishment candidate.”
Jewel Stolarchuk, The Independent (Singapore): “GE may not be held this year but opposition parties ‘need to start preparing early’:….Although many Singaporeans have speculated that the next election – which must be held by 15 April 2021 – could be called as early as this year, there are no clear indications that the GE will take place in 2019.”
Past Elections
Papua New Guinea Local – July 20-25, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Papua New Guinea’s politics are chaotic, and no single party has ever commanded a majority in parliament. Coalitions shift frequently. James Marape became prime minister in May 2018 when former prime minister Peter O’Neill lost a no-confidence vote after being in power for eight years. It is unclear whether Marape will effectively address Papua New Guinea’s continuing problems of corruption and mismanagement of the economy. For the local elections, voters will elect representatives to 29 urban and 302 rural local level government assemblies.
Leiao Gerega, Papua New Guinea Post-Courier: “The 2019 local level government election came to an official closure last Friday with the handing over of the ward writs by Electoral Commissioner Patilias Gamato to the Minister for Inter-government Relations Pila Niningi. The event marks the completion of the election process administered and conducted by the PNG Electoral Commission and paves way for swearing-in and election of the presidents and mayors of LLGs.”
Bal Kama, Australian National University’s DevPolicy Blog: “‘Take Back PNG’: Prime Minister Marape and his audacious vision for PNG”
Japan Legislative (half of upper house) – July 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Shinzo Abe’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) sought to gain a two-thirds majority in the upper house (which it already held in the lower house with coalition partner Komeito, a Buddhist religious party) in order to revisit and possibly amend Japan’s pacifist constitution. LDP and Komeito did maintain their majority in the upper house, but fell short of the super-majority.
Thisanka Siripala, The Diplomat: “Japan’s Upper House Election Results: A Win for Diversity? Despite a record number of female and handicapped candidates winning seats, hurdles remain.”
Brett Fujioka, Tablet: “Japan’s Cynical Romantics, Precursors to the Alt-Right: Long before Pepe the Frog endorsed Trump, Japanese internet users created a new, ‘very online’ far-right political style. But why did it reappear decades later in the U.S.?”
Thailand Parliamentary – March 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Constitutional Monarchy
Richard C. Paddock and Alisa Dogramadzieva, New York Times: “Thailand’s Former Leader, in Exile and Wanted at Home, Gets Serbian Citizenship”
Kay Johnson, Panu Wongcha-um and Panarat Thepgumpanat, Reuters: “Thailand’s army is fighting a “hybrid war” waged by enemies who are using “fake news” to turn young Thais against the military and the monarchy, the army chief said in a rare interview on Friday.”
Joshua Kurlantzick, Council on Foreign Relations’ Asia Unbound: “Over the past two years, and even as Thailand has made a transition from junta rule to, now, some kind of hybrid rule, following hotly contested but unfair elections, Thai activists living abroad have become increasingly imperiled.”
Malaysia General – May 9, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
In last year’s parliamentary elections, Mahathir Mohamed led his Pakatan Haratan (Alliance of Hope) party to a surprise victory over the Barisan Nasional coalition and its primary member, United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which had been in power since Malaysia’s 1957 independence. Mahathir had teamed up with his former arch-rival Anwar Ibrahim, a long-time pro-democracy activist. Mahathir promised not to govern for more than three years, and many expected him to transfer power to Anwar, but it is unclear whether this will actually happen.
Anisah Shukry, Bloomberg: “Malaysian civil society groups are urging Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad to set a date for when he will hand over power to former rival Anwar Ibrahim. And they want it to be between a year from now to May 2021. The groups include Bersih, or Coalition for Clean and Fair Elections, which was behind one of the country’s biggest protests in 2015 that drew an estimated 300,000 people to a rally campaigning for election reform and anti-corruption.”
Channel News Asia: “Last year, Dr Mahathir returned from retirement to lead Pakatan Harapan (PH) to score a historic win in the 14th general election and dethroned the Barisan Nasional coalition from its six-decade rule. While Dr Mahathir was appointed as prime minister, an eventual handover of the premiership to Mr Anwar, Parti Keadilan Rakyat’s (PKR) president, was on the cards.”
Malaysian pro-democracy activist Anwar Ibrahim. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Firdaus Latif (CC BY-SA 2.0)
21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.
The Year Ahead: Asia
Japan, provincial elections throughout the year; Nauru legislative (August 14); India, Maharashtra and Haryana states (October); Tuvalu parliamentary (September 9); New Zealand local (October 12); Hong Kong local (November 24); Marshall Islands legislative (November); India Jharkhand State (November); India Jammu and Kashmir (expected late 2019); Kiribati legislative (December); Sri Lanka presidential (December 7); Nepal by-elections (December 30); Taiwan presidential and legislative (January 11); Kiribati presidential (March); South Korea parliamentary (April 15); Niue parliamentary (May); Philippines village and youth council (May); Mongolia parliamentary (June)
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Category: This Week Tags: Burma, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand