Upcoming Asia Elections
Malaysia Parliamentary By-Election in Tanjong Piai – November 16, 2019 and Local Elections – TBD
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 31.8 million
In last year’s parliamentary elections, Mahathir Mohamed led his Pakatan Haratan (Alliance of Hope) party to a surprise victory over the Barisan Nasional coalition and its primary member, United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which had been in power since Malaysia’s 1957 independence. In 1976, the government abolished local elections and instituted the practice of appointing the members of the country’s 146 local councils. Malaysia is currently debating whether to hold local elections.
Tanjong Piai is home to mainland Eurasia’s southernmost point. The parliamentary seat became open when incumbent Md Farid Md Rafik died of a heart attack on September 21 at age 42. Md Farid was a member of the PH, and he narrowly defeated incumbent Wee Jeck Seng from the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA), a member of the BN coalition, and the PAS candidate in a three-way contest.
Lu Wei Hoong, Malaysiakini: “Both Pakatan Harapan and BN are set to ramp up their campaign efforts in Tanjung Piai ahead the official start of the by-election campaign period on Nov 2.”
Syed Jaymal Zahiid, Malay Mail: “As Tanjung Piai poll nears, Pakatan warns of rising race rhetoric”
Zainal Epi, Malay Mail: “Tanjung Piai yardstick for Bersatu’s popularity with Malays: Trouble is brewing in the Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition. The ideologically-different Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) and DAP are fighting each other. This could affect the ruling coalition if the two do not reconcile; their respective youth wings are openly hostile.”
Rozanna Ratiff, Reuters: “Former Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak acted like an ‘emperor’ who orchestrated massive fraud at a former unit of scandal-linked state fund 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB), the country’s attorney-general said at his trial on Tuesday [October 22]. Malaysian prosecutors have begun wrapping up their first case against the ex-premier, who faces seven charges of criminal breach of trust, money laundering and abuse of power linked to alleged transfers of 42 million ringgit ($10.03 million) into his personal bank account from SRC International, a former 1MDB unit.”
Updated October 26, 2019
Straits Times: “Pro-China comic book spells trouble for activist in Malaysia: Publication has stirred up communal feelings, left ministers red-faced and DAP in tight spot”
Sri Lanka Presidential – November 16, 2019 (confirmed) and Parliamentary – February 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 22.6 million
Sri Lanka is still feeling the aftershocks of a series of terrorist attacks over Easter 2019 and a 2018 political crisis in which President Maithripala Sirisena tried to dissolve parliament and remove Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe from office and replace him with former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was president from 2005 to 2015. Ultimately, Wickremesinghe was reinstated, but the crisis has deep roots and tensions remain high in Sri Lankan politics.
The two major parties are Sirisena’s center-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Wickremesinghe’s center-right United National Party. Rajapaksa left the SLPF in 2018 and now leads the populist Sri Lanka People’s Front/Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). In the last presidential elections, Rajapaksa surprisingly lost to Sirisena, who embarked on a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Rajapaksa had built up. SLPP did well in local elections last year.
Out of a record 35 presidential candidates, the two frontrunners former defense chief Gotabaya Rajapaksa (Mahinda’s brother), who has been accused of war crimes (Mahinda is not eligible to run for president again due to term limits adopted during Sirisena’s presidency), as well as Sajith Premadasa from UNP, who bested Wickremesinghe in the party’s bitterly-fought nomination contest. Premadasa is the son of former president Ranasinghe Premadasa, and has sought to bolster his campaign’s national security credentials by promising to appoint a former wartime army chief as head of national security if elected. Rajapaksa is presenting himself as a strongman, promising to eliminate Islamist terrorists.
Sirisena has announced that he will not seek re-election, and for the first time ever, the SLFP will not be fielding a presidential candidate. Thus Sri Lanka’s party system is in the midst of a realignment. International observers have noted that the fluid party situation could make the election more competitive, but also note concerns about media bias, transparency in campaign finance, voter education, and party conduct. Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice, and the upcoming elections could well determine whether it strengthens or deteriorates.
Brahma Chellaney, Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) The Strategist: “The end of Sri Lankan democracy?”
Ana Pararajasingham, The Diplomat: “The Internal and International Dimensions of Sri Lanka’s Presidential Elections: A Gotabaya Rajapaksa presidency will have serious repercussions for both Sri Lanka’s internal governance as well as its international partnerships.”
Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
Population: 7.2 million
A series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets on at least one occasion – has been taking place in Hong Kong since the beginning of the summer. The proximate cause was a controversial extradition bill, but even though the bill has been put on hold, protesters persist, calling for more democracy and free elections. The police have responded violently and pro-Beijing forces have sought to smear and demoralize the protesters. There are fears that Beijing could send troops, but Hong Kong’s activists vow to continue until they succeed in their goals.
Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. The protest movement could boost the pro-democracy camp.
Chris Cheng, Hong Kong Free Press: “Hong Kong’s government has formed an election crisis management committee to decide whether to postpone the upcoming District Council election if unrest breaks out on the polling day on November 24. Protests erupted at a briefing session for candidates on Thursday evening over activist Joshua Wong’s unconfirmed candidacy.”
Anita Powell, VOA: “Joshua Wong, the 23-year-old poster boy for Hong Kong’s ongoing anti-government protests, said Thursday that he is the only candidate for upcoming district elections who has been barred from running. Wong was defiant as he parked himself in front of the city’s Legislative Council complex to announce Thursday that he is the only one of 1,000 aspirants running for the 479-seat District Council who has yet to be approved.”
Suzanne Pepper, Hong Kong Free Press: “Hong Kong has had two major protest election cycles and pro-democracy partisans did better than expected in both. The first was in 2003-04, the second in 2015-16. A third will begin next month, and everyone is either hoping, or bracing, for a similar result.”
Sum Lok-kei, South China Morning Post: “Hong Kong’s district council elections: how the opposition camp plans to give their pro-establishment rivals a fierce fight”
Ellen Bork, The American Interest: “Hong Kong, Beijing, and the US-China Policy Shift: Hong Kong democracy advocates Martin Lee and Jimmy Lai open up about Beijing’s plans, U.S. China policy, and the future of freedom and democracy movement in their city.”
James Palmer, Foreign Policy: “Is Carrie Lam on Her Way Out? Beijing is reportedly mulling a plan to remove Hong Kong’s leader, but it isn’t likely to solve the city’s political crisis.”
Ben Westcott and Eric Cheung, CNN: “China dismisses reports of replacing Hong Kong leader as ‘political rumor’”
Taiwan Presidential and Legislative – January 11, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 23.5 million
Taiwan has a robust democracy. The two main parties are President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT, founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate. Tsai won the DPP presidential primary. Beijing’s choice, Han Kuo-yu, the populist firebrand mayor of Kaohsiung, a major port city in the south, won the KMT primary. His opponent, Foxconn founder Terry Guo, Taiwan’s richest man, is mulling an independent bid in the general election.
The DPP currently controls the Legislative Yuan. Last year’s local elections swept the KMT back into many local offices that they had lost during the 2014 local elections – with some interference from China. China is expected to attempt to influence the upcoming elections as well.
Huileng Tan, CNBC: “Murder case that helped spark Hong Kong political crisis is now an election issue for Taiwan”
Jeremy Huai-Che Chiang, The Diplomat: “Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy and the Looming Election”
Burma Parliamentary – Expected late 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 55.6 million
Burma, also called Myanmar, seemed to be moving toward democracy following the country’s first credible, relatively free elections in 2015, which swept Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) to power following decades of military dictatorship. Once held up by the global community as a paragon of moral authority for giving up her own freedom in the fight for democracy, Suu Kyi’s tenure as the country’s de facto leader has disappointed many. Burma still has hundreds of political prisoners, including many who were arrested after the NLD came to power.
Ethnic conflicts continue between the dominant Burmans, who comprise roughly 60 percent of the population, and different minority groups. The crisis in Rakhine or Arakan State with the Muslim Rohingya, which some have called a genocide, has created 700,000 refugees in neighboring Bangladesh and 128,000 internally displaced people. During by-elections in 2018, the NLD won seven out of 13 seats, but lost five out of six in non-Burman areas.
Htun Htun, The Irrawaddy: “The vice-chairman of the ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) party, Dr. Zaw Myint Maung, has urged NLD lawmakers to work hard, saying that people will not vote for them in the 2020 election just because they represent the party.”
Htun Aung Gyaw, Asia Times: “Burma’s democratic government has a chance to win a second term in office in the 2020 election because of Aung San Suu Kyi’s fame and her popularity is still strong within the country even though her government is facing many difficulties.”
Mi Ki Kyaw Myint, The Asia Foundation: “What Advice Do Myanmar’s Female MPs Have for Women Candidates in 2020?”
New Zealand Local – October 12, 2019 and Parliamentary – by November 21, 2020 (likely to be earlier)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Population: 4.5 million
New Zealand’s two main parties are the center-left Labour Party and center-right National Party. National won the most votes and seats in the 2017 elections, but not enough to form a government. Labour formed a coalition with New Zealand First, a populist party that has worked with both Labour and National in the past, backed by a confidence and supply agreement with the Green Party (Labour and New Zealand First combined have the same number of seats as National – 55). Labour leader Jacinda Ardern – a former DJ who is on the left wing of the party – became Prime Minister and is currently the world’s youngest female government.
Local elections in New Zealand have had low turnout for decades, but the local polls could serve as an interesting barometer ahead of next year’s parliamentary polls – which are due by November 2020 but could be called earlier – for which parties have already started campaigning.
Laura Dooney, Radio New Zealand: “Former Wellington mayor Justin Lester applies for election result recount….He’s applied for a recount after losing the mayoralty in this month’s local elections to Mayor-elect Andy Foster by 62 votes.”
AFP: “New Zealand to add euthanasia vote to 2020’s election: The proposal passed after a heated debate in parliament, but one calls the bill ‘repugnant’”
Luke Malpass, Stuff (New Zealand): “Two years down, parties shaping up for election battle”
Singapore General – April 2021 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 6 million
People’s Action Party (PAP), co-founded by Lee Kuan Yew Singapore’s first prime minister, has been in power since 1959. While elections aren’t rigged in the classic sense (no stuffed ballot boxes), they take place in a context that effectively prevents the opposition from actually taking power, and the opposition has not historically run to actually win – their pitch to voters has been promises to provide a check on the PAP.
The government uses a variety of tactics – including libel lawsuits, influence over the media, and laws that restrict political speech – to hamstring the opposition, while arguing that Singaporeans support PAP because it has governed competently. The 2015 elections gave PAP 83 out of the 89 elected seats in parliament. The next elections are due in 2021, but Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (Lee Kuan Yew’s son) has hinted that he would call early elections.
Wan Ting Koh, Yahoo News Singapore: “’Trust is about what you do’: Singapore Democratic Party holds pre-election rally at Hong Lim Park”
Past Asia Elections
Thailand Parliamentary By-Election in Nakhon Pathom – October 23, 2019 and Local – March 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 68.6 million
The March 24, 2019 parliamentary election nominally returned Thailand to civilian rule following a military coup in 2014.
The main political fault line during the elections was between pro- and anti-junta political parties. Pheu Thai, a populist party founded by controversial former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra – who was ousted from office and convicted of corruption and is now living in exile – won the most seats (136 out of 500). However, Pheu Thai’s negotiations with the newly-formed progressive Future Forward Party (FFP) and several others fell through. For two decades, the (sometimes violent) fight between Thaksin and the military dominated Thai politics, and FFP originally been formed to give voters an alternative.
Former junta chief Prayuth Chan-ocha’s new pro-junta Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) then formed a government in coalition with several other parties, including former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s Democrats. Prayuth became prime minister. The military still wields considerable power behind the scenes.
James Massola, Sydney Morning Herald: “’Attitude adjustment’: Report highlights Thailand’s quiet war on critics”
India, Haryana State and Maharashtra State Assemblies – October 21, 2019 Jharkhand State Assembly – November 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: India – 1.3 billion; Maharashtra -112 million; Haryana – 25 million; Jharkhand – 32 million
India has 29 states and seven union territories. Indian states are big – Maharashtra, whose capital is Mumbai, has 112 million people, Haryana 25 million, and Jharkhand 32 million. Coalitions headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently control all three state legislatures. The BJP won a massive victory in elections to the Lok Sabha, India’s national parliament, earlier this year, giving it a second term in power as the majority party able to govern without coalition partners, in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – did well in a series of state elections late last year but is reeling from the whiplash of defeat in the Lok Sabha polls.
The state elections are happening in the context of a renewed push from Modi to institute “one nation, one election” – a proposal to hold state elections at the same time as elections to the Lok Sabha. Critics say the plan is a ploy to centralize power, part of a pattern that includes Modi’s surprise decision to strip the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir of its autonomy. Critics accuse Modi and the BJP of increasing authoritarianism.
In a surprise geopolitical development, on August 5, 2019, the Modi government made a unilateral decision to strip the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir of its autonomy. The region, which is majority Muslim, is claimed by both India and Pakistan and has sparked three wars. For seventy years, the Indian-controlled part – established as the state of Jammu and Kashmir – enjoyed a high degree of autonomy, but Modi announced that the state would be downgraded into two union territories, effectively centralizing control. The area remains on virtual lockdown. Some have been critical of the decision, which Modi defends.
BBC: “India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has lost its majority in a key state election. It has won 40 seats in the northern state of Haryana, which is six short of the simple majority needed to retain power. The party and its ally, Shiv Sena, have held onto power in the western state of Maharashtra, but lost 15 of their seats. The results are being seen as a temporary setback for PM Narendra Modi.”
Shivam Vij, Quartz: “Recent poll results show that nationalist rhetoric won’t help Modi hide economic woes forever”
Srinivasan Ramani, The Hindu: “Election results 2019 Analysis | All is not lost for the Indian Opposition”
India Today: “Election Results: BJP, JJP announce alliance to form govt in Haryana”
AP: “India holds Kashmir elections despite lockdown, boycott: Heavy contingents of police and paramilitary soldiers guard polling stations. Village council elections were held Thursday [October 24] across Indian-controlled Kashmir, with the detention of many mainstream local politicians and a boycott by most parties prompting expectations that the polls will install supporters of the central Hindu nationalist-led government that revoked the region’s semi-autonomous status in August.”
AP: “Independent candidates have overwhelmingly won village council elections held in Indian-controlled Kashmir months after New Delhi imposed a harsh security crackdown and stripped the region of its semi-autonomous status.”
Japan Legislative (half of upper house) – July 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 126.2 million
Shinzo Abe’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) sought to gain a two-thirds majority in the upper house (which it already held in the lower house with coalition partner Komeito, a Buddhist religious party) in order to revisit and possibly amend Japan’s pacifist constitution. LDP and Komeito did maintain their majority in the upper house, but fell short of the super-majority.
The Mainichi: “A Japanese court ruled Friday that July’s upper house election was constitutional despite a disparity of up to 3.00 times in the weight of a single vote between the most and least populated constituencies. The ruling was the third related to the July 21 House of Councillors election after two groups of lawyers filed suits with 14 high courts and their branches across Japan. It is the first time that the vote disparity of the election has been judged to be constitutional.”
Indonesia General – April 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 262.8 million
In Indonesia’s April 2019 election – the biggest single day of voting in the history of the world – incumbent Joko Widodo (Jokowi), widely seen as a reformer, defeated challenged Prabowo Subianto for the presidency in an election deemed free and fair by the international community. However, Prabowo didn’t accept the results, and in addition to challenging them in court, he urged his supporters to take to the streets. Rioting ensued. Prabowo ultimately accepted the results, but tensions remain, particularly regarding the role of religion in politics.
Indonesia will hold regional elections in September 2020, and the next presidential election is due in 2024.
Maikel Jefriando, Reuters: “Indonesia president taps opposition, start-up founder for new cabinet”
Erwin Renaldi, ABC News (Australia): “Indonesians have expressed disappointment Indonesian President Joko Widodo has selected Opposition Leader Prabowo Subianto to serve in his new Cabinet as Defence Minister. Mr Widodo unveiled the Cabinet for his second term on Wednesday, picking former industry minister Airlangga Hartarto to head his economic team and retaining economist Sri Mulyani Indrawati as Finance Minister.”
Erin Cook, The Diplomat: “What Does Jokowi’s New Cabinet Mean for Indonesia? The lineup offers some early insights on how his second term may shape up.”
Airlangga Pribadi Kusman, University of Melbourne’s Indonesia at Melbourne: “When is a tadpole like a bat? The riddle of Indonesia’s vanishing political divide”
Cambodia General – July 29, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 16.4 million
Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that had some element of competition, the 2018 election – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.
The 2018 election has been described as the “death of democracy” in Cambodia. Since then, Cambodia has worked to suppress all critical voices, including journalists, civil society, and the opposition. The United States sanctioned Cambodia’s top officials in response.
Radio Free Asia: “Authorities in Cambodia’s border provinces of Battambang and Mondulkiri have launched anti-protest training initiatives for members of the security forces, as the clock winds down on the planned return from exile next month of Sam Rainsy, the acting president of the country’s banned opposition party.”
Andrew Nachemson, Al Jazeera: “Questions over Rainsy’s Cambodia return after deputy turned back: Thailand denied entry to Mu Sochua, raising doubts about plan for opposition leaders to take land route back home.”
Hul Reaksmey, VOA: “Civil Society Groups Say Government Failed To Uphold Peace Agreement Values”
Papua New Guinea General – June-July 2017
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Population: 7 million
Papua New Guinea’s politics are chaotic, and no single party has ever commanded a majority in parliament. Coalitions shift frequently. James Marape became prime minister in May 2018 when former prime minister Peter O’Neill lost a no-confidence vote after being in power for eight years. It is unclear whether Marape will effectively address Papua New Guinea’s continuing problems of corruption and mismanagement of the economy.
Johnny Blades, Radio New Zealand: “Gamato arrest highlights troubled PNG election: Papua New Guinea’s Electoral Commissioner has been arrested in relation to the country’s flawed 2017 elections.”
Asia This Week – October 25, 2019
Leave a Comment
Last Updated: November 12, 2019 by 21votes
October 25, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Asia and the Pacific on Fridays. Click the map pins.
Malaysia Parliamentary By-Election in Tanjong Piai – November 16, 2019 and Local Elections – TBD
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 31.8 million
In last year’s parliamentary elections, Mahathir Mohamed led his Pakatan Haratan (Alliance of Hope) party to a surprise victory over the Barisan Nasional coalition and its primary member, United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which had been in power since Malaysia’s 1957 independence. In 1976, the government abolished local elections and instituted the practice of appointing the members of the country’s 146 local councils. Malaysia is currently debating whether to hold local elections.
Tanjong Piai is home to mainland Eurasia’s southernmost point. The parliamentary seat became open when incumbent Md Farid Md Rafik died of a heart attack on September 21 at age 42. Md Farid was a member of the PH, and he narrowly defeated incumbent Wee Jeck Seng from the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA), a member of the BN coalition, and the PAS candidate in a three-way contest.
Sri Lanka Presidential – November 16, 2019 (confirmed) and Parliamentary – February 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 22.6 million
Sri Lanka is still feeling the aftershocks of a series of terrorist attacks over Easter 2019 and a 2018 political crisis in which President Maithripala Sirisena tried to dissolve parliament and remove Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe from office and replace him with former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was president from 2005 to 2015. Ultimately, Wickremesinghe was reinstated, but the crisis has deep roots and tensions remain high in Sri Lankan politics.
The two major parties are Sirisena’s center-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Wickremesinghe’s center-right United National Party. Rajapaksa left the SLPF in 2018 and now leads the populist Sri Lanka People’s Front/Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). In the last presidential elections, Rajapaksa surprisingly lost to Sirisena, who embarked on a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Rajapaksa had built up. SLPP did well in local elections last year.
Out of a record 35 presidential candidates, the two frontrunners former defense chief Gotabaya Rajapaksa (Mahinda’s brother), who has been accused of war crimes (Mahinda is not eligible to run for president again due to term limits adopted during Sirisena’s presidency), as well as Sajith Premadasa from UNP, who bested Wickremesinghe in the party’s bitterly-fought nomination contest. Premadasa is the son of former president Ranasinghe Premadasa, and has sought to bolster his campaign’s national security credentials by promising to appoint a former wartime army chief as head of national security if elected. Rajapaksa is presenting himself as a strongman, promising to eliminate Islamist terrorists.
Sirisena has announced that he will not seek re-election, and for the first time ever, the SLFP will not be fielding a presidential candidate. Thus Sri Lanka’s party system is in the midst of a realignment. International observers have noted that the fluid party situation could make the election more competitive, but also note concerns about media bias, transparency in campaign finance, voter education, and party conduct. Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice, and the upcoming elections could well determine whether it strengthens or deteriorates.
Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
Population: 7.2 million
A series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets on at least one occasion – has been taking place in Hong Kong since the beginning of the summer. The proximate cause was a controversial extradition bill, but even though the bill has been put on hold, protesters persist, calling for more democracy and free elections. The police have responded violently and pro-Beijing forces have sought to smear and demoralize the protesters. There are fears that Beijing could send troops, but Hong Kong’s activists vow to continue until they succeed in their goals.
Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. The protest movement could boost the pro-democracy camp.
Taiwan Presidential and Legislative – January 11, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 23.5 million
Taiwan has a robust democracy. The two main parties are President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT, founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate. Tsai won the DPP presidential primary. Beijing’s choice, Han Kuo-yu, the populist firebrand mayor of Kaohsiung, a major port city in the south, won the KMT primary. His opponent, Foxconn founder Terry Guo, Taiwan’s richest man, is mulling an independent bid in the general election.
The DPP currently controls the Legislative Yuan. Last year’s local elections swept the KMT back into many local offices that they had lost during the 2014 local elections – with some interference from China. China is expected to attempt to influence the upcoming elections as well.
Burma Parliamentary – Expected late 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 55.6 million
Burma, also called Myanmar, seemed to be moving toward democracy following the country’s first credible, relatively free elections in 2015, which swept Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) to power following decades of military dictatorship. Once held up by the global community as a paragon of moral authority for giving up her own freedom in the fight for democracy, Suu Kyi’s tenure as the country’s de facto leader has disappointed many. Burma still has hundreds of political prisoners, including many who were arrested after the NLD came to power.
Ethnic conflicts continue between the dominant Burmans, who comprise roughly 60 percent of the population, and different minority groups. The crisis in Rakhine or Arakan State with the Muslim Rohingya, which some have called a genocide, has created 700,000 refugees in neighboring Bangladesh and 128,000 internally displaced people. During by-elections in 2018, the NLD won seven out of 13 seats, but lost five out of six in non-Burman areas.
New Zealand Local – October 12, 2019 and Parliamentary – by November 21, 2020 (likely to be earlier)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Population: 4.5 million
New Zealand’s two main parties are the center-left Labour Party and center-right National Party. National won the most votes and seats in the 2017 elections, but not enough to form a government. Labour formed a coalition with New Zealand First, a populist party that has worked with both Labour and National in the past, backed by a confidence and supply agreement with the Green Party (Labour and New Zealand First combined have the same number of seats as National – 55). Labour leader Jacinda Ardern – a former DJ who is on the left wing of the party – became Prime Minister and is currently the world’s youngest female government.
Local elections in New Zealand have had low turnout for decades, but the local polls could serve as an interesting barometer ahead of next year’s parliamentary polls – which are due by November 2020 but could be called earlier – for which parties have already started campaigning.
Singapore General – April 2021 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 6 million
People’s Action Party (PAP), co-founded by Lee Kuan Yew Singapore’s first prime minister, has been in power since 1959. While elections aren’t rigged in the classic sense (no stuffed ballot boxes), they take place in a context that effectively prevents the opposition from actually taking power, and the opposition has not historically run to actually win – their pitch to voters has been promises to provide a check on the PAP.
The government uses a variety of tactics – including libel lawsuits, influence over the media, and laws that restrict political speech – to hamstring the opposition, while arguing that Singaporeans support PAP because it has governed competently. The 2015 elections gave PAP 83 out of the 89 elected seats in parliament. The next elections are due in 2021, but Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (Lee Kuan Yew’s son) has hinted that he would call early elections.
India, Haryana State and Maharashtra State Assemblies – October 21, 2019 Jharkhand State Assembly – November 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: India – 1.3 billion; Maharashtra -112 million; Haryana – 25 million; Jharkhand – 32 million
India has 29 states and seven union territories. Indian states are big – Maharashtra, whose capital is Mumbai, has 112 million people, Haryana 25 million, and Jharkhand 32 million. Coalitions headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently control all three state legislatures. The BJP won a massive victory in elections to the Lok Sabha, India’s national parliament, earlier this year, giving it a second term in power as the majority party able to govern without coalition partners, in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – did well in a series of state elections late last year but is reeling from the whiplash of defeat in the Lok Sabha polls.
The state elections are happening in the context of a renewed push from Modi to institute “one nation, one election” – a proposal to hold state elections at the same time as elections to the Lok Sabha. Critics say the plan is a ploy to centralize power, part of a pattern that includes Modi’s surprise decision to strip the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir of its autonomy. Critics accuse Modi and the BJP of increasing authoritarianism.
In a surprise geopolitical development, on August 5, 2019, the Modi government made a unilateral decision to strip the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir of its autonomy. The region, which is majority Muslim, is claimed by both India and Pakistan and has sparked three wars. For seventy years, the Indian-controlled part – established as the state of Jammu and Kashmir – enjoyed a high degree of autonomy, but Modi announced that the state would be downgraded into two union territories, effectively centralizing control. The area remains on virtual lockdown. Some have been critical of the decision, which Modi defends.
Japan Legislative (half of upper house) – July 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 126.2 million
Shinzo Abe’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) sought to gain a two-thirds majority in the upper house (which it already held in the lower house with coalition partner Komeito, a Buddhist religious party) in order to revisit and possibly amend Japan’s pacifist constitution. LDP and Komeito did maintain their majority in the upper house, but fell short of the super-majority.
Indonesia General – April 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 262.8 million
In Indonesia’s April 2019 election – the biggest single day of voting in the history of the world – incumbent Joko Widodo (Jokowi), widely seen as a reformer, defeated challenged Prabowo Subianto for the presidency in an election deemed free and fair by the international community. However, Prabowo didn’t accept the results, and in addition to challenging them in court, he urged his supporters to take to the streets. Rioting ensued. Prabowo ultimately accepted the results, but tensions remain, particularly regarding the role of religion in politics.
Indonesia will hold regional elections in September 2020, and the next presidential election is due in 2024.
Cambodia General – July 29, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 16.4 million
Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that had some element of competition, the 2018 election – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.
The 2018 election has been described as the “death of democracy” in Cambodia. Since then, Cambodia has worked to suppress all critical voices, including journalists, civil society, and the opposition. The United States sanctioned Cambodia’s top officials in response.
Radio Free Asia: “Authorities in Cambodia’s border provinces of Battambang and Mondulkiri have launched anti-protest training initiatives for members of the security forces, as the clock winds down on the planned return from exile next month of Sam Rainsy, the acting president of the country’s banned opposition party.”
Papua New Guinea General – June-July 2017
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Population: 7 million
Papua New Guinea’s politics are chaotic, and no single party has ever commanded a majority in parliament. Coalitions shift frequently. James Marape became prime minister in May 2018 when former prime minister Peter O’Neill lost a no-confidence vote after being in power for eight years. It is unclear whether Marape will effectively address Papua New Guinea’s continuing problems of corruption and mismanagement of the economy.
Upcoming Asia Elections
Malaysia Parliamentary By-Election in Tanjong Piai – November 16, 2019 and Local Elections – TBD
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 31.8 million
In last year’s parliamentary elections, Mahathir Mohamed led his Pakatan Haratan (Alliance of Hope) party to a surprise victory over the Barisan Nasional coalition and its primary member, United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which had been in power since Malaysia’s 1957 independence. In 1976, the government abolished local elections and instituted the practice of appointing the members of the country’s 146 local councils. Malaysia is currently debating whether to hold local elections.
Tanjong Piai is home to mainland Eurasia’s southernmost point. The parliamentary seat became open when incumbent Md Farid Md Rafik died of a heart attack on September 21 at age 42. Md Farid was a member of the PH, and he narrowly defeated incumbent Wee Jeck Seng from the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA), a member of the BN coalition, and the PAS candidate in a three-way contest.
Lu Wei Hoong, Malaysiakini: “Both Pakatan Harapan and BN are set to ramp up their campaign efforts in Tanjung Piai ahead the official start of the by-election campaign period on Nov 2.”
Syed Jaymal Zahiid, Malay Mail: “As Tanjung Piai poll nears, Pakatan warns of rising race rhetoric”
Zainal Epi, Malay Mail: “Tanjung Piai yardstick for Bersatu’s popularity with Malays: Trouble is brewing in the Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition. The ideologically-different Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) and DAP are fighting each other. This could affect the ruling coalition if the two do not reconcile; their respective youth wings are openly hostile.”
Rozanna Ratiff, Reuters: “Former Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak acted like an ‘emperor’ who orchestrated massive fraud at a former unit of scandal-linked state fund 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB), the country’s attorney-general said at his trial on Tuesday [October 22]. Malaysian prosecutors have begun wrapping up their first case against the ex-premier, who faces seven charges of criminal breach of trust, money laundering and abuse of power linked to alleged transfers of 42 million ringgit ($10.03 million) into his personal bank account from SRC International, a former 1MDB unit.”
Updated October 26, 2019
Straits Times: “Pro-China comic book spells trouble for activist in Malaysia: Publication has stirred up communal feelings, left ministers red-faced and DAP in tight spot”
Sri Lanka Presidential – November 16, 2019 (confirmed) and Parliamentary – February 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 22.6 million
Sri Lanka is still feeling the aftershocks of a series of terrorist attacks over Easter 2019 and a 2018 political crisis in which President Maithripala Sirisena tried to dissolve parliament and remove Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe from office and replace him with former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was president from 2005 to 2015. Ultimately, Wickremesinghe was reinstated, but the crisis has deep roots and tensions remain high in Sri Lankan politics.
The two major parties are Sirisena’s center-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Wickremesinghe’s center-right United National Party. Rajapaksa left the SLPF in 2018 and now leads the populist Sri Lanka People’s Front/Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). In the last presidential elections, Rajapaksa surprisingly lost to Sirisena, who embarked on a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Rajapaksa had built up. SLPP did well in local elections last year.
Out of a record 35 presidential candidates, the two frontrunners former defense chief Gotabaya Rajapaksa (Mahinda’s brother), who has been accused of war crimes (Mahinda is not eligible to run for president again due to term limits adopted during Sirisena’s presidency), as well as Sajith Premadasa from UNP, who bested Wickremesinghe in the party’s bitterly-fought nomination contest. Premadasa is the son of former president Ranasinghe Premadasa, and has sought to bolster his campaign’s national security credentials by promising to appoint a former wartime army chief as head of national security if elected. Rajapaksa is presenting himself as a strongman, promising to eliminate Islamist terrorists.
Sirisena has announced that he will not seek re-election, and for the first time ever, the SLFP will not be fielding a presidential candidate. Thus Sri Lanka’s party system is in the midst of a realignment. International observers have noted that the fluid party situation could make the election more competitive, but also note concerns about media bias, transparency in campaign finance, voter education, and party conduct. Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice, and the upcoming elections could well determine whether it strengthens or deteriorates.
Brahma Chellaney, Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) The Strategist: “The end of Sri Lankan democracy?”
Ana Pararajasingham, The Diplomat: “The Internal and International Dimensions of Sri Lanka’s Presidential Elections: A Gotabaya Rajapaksa presidency will have serious repercussions for both Sri Lanka’s internal governance as well as its international partnerships.”
Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
Population: 7.2 million
A series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets on at least one occasion – has been taking place in Hong Kong since the beginning of the summer. The proximate cause was a controversial extradition bill, but even though the bill has been put on hold, protesters persist, calling for more democracy and free elections. The police have responded violently and pro-Beijing forces have sought to smear and demoralize the protesters. There are fears that Beijing could send troops, but Hong Kong’s activists vow to continue until they succeed in their goals.
Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. The protest movement could boost the pro-democracy camp.
Chris Cheng, Hong Kong Free Press: “Hong Kong’s government has formed an election crisis management committee to decide whether to postpone the upcoming District Council election if unrest breaks out on the polling day on November 24. Protests erupted at a briefing session for candidates on Thursday evening over activist Joshua Wong’s unconfirmed candidacy.”
Anita Powell, VOA: “Joshua Wong, the 23-year-old poster boy for Hong Kong’s ongoing anti-government protests, said Thursday that he is the only candidate for upcoming district elections who has been barred from running. Wong was defiant as he parked himself in front of the city’s Legislative Council complex to announce Thursday that he is the only one of 1,000 aspirants running for the 479-seat District Council who has yet to be approved.”
Suzanne Pepper, Hong Kong Free Press: “Hong Kong has had two major protest election cycles and pro-democracy partisans did better than expected in both. The first was in 2003-04, the second in 2015-16. A third will begin next month, and everyone is either hoping, or bracing, for a similar result.”
Sum Lok-kei, South China Morning Post: “Hong Kong’s district council elections: how the opposition camp plans to give their pro-establishment rivals a fierce fight”
Ellen Bork, The American Interest: “Hong Kong, Beijing, and the US-China Policy Shift: Hong Kong democracy advocates Martin Lee and Jimmy Lai open up about Beijing’s plans, U.S. China policy, and the future of freedom and democracy movement in their city.”
James Palmer, Foreign Policy: “Is Carrie Lam on Her Way Out? Beijing is reportedly mulling a plan to remove Hong Kong’s leader, but it isn’t likely to solve the city’s political crisis.”
Ben Westcott and Eric Cheung, CNN: “China dismisses reports of replacing Hong Kong leader as ‘political rumor’”
Taiwan Presidential and Legislative – January 11, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 23.5 million
Taiwan has a robust democracy. The two main parties are President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT, founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate. Tsai won the DPP presidential primary. Beijing’s choice, Han Kuo-yu, the populist firebrand mayor of Kaohsiung, a major port city in the south, won the KMT primary. His opponent, Foxconn founder Terry Guo, Taiwan’s richest man, is mulling an independent bid in the general election.
The DPP currently controls the Legislative Yuan. Last year’s local elections swept the KMT back into many local offices that they had lost during the 2014 local elections – with some interference from China. China is expected to attempt to influence the upcoming elections as well.
Huileng Tan, CNBC: “Murder case that helped spark Hong Kong political crisis is now an election issue for Taiwan”
Jeremy Huai-Che Chiang, The Diplomat: “Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy and the Looming Election”
Burma Parliamentary – Expected late 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 55.6 million
Burma, also called Myanmar, seemed to be moving toward democracy following the country’s first credible, relatively free elections in 2015, which swept Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) to power following decades of military dictatorship. Once held up by the global community as a paragon of moral authority for giving up her own freedom in the fight for democracy, Suu Kyi’s tenure as the country’s de facto leader has disappointed many. Burma still has hundreds of political prisoners, including many who were arrested after the NLD came to power.
Ethnic conflicts continue between the dominant Burmans, who comprise roughly 60 percent of the population, and different minority groups. The crisis in Rakhine or Arakan State with the Muslim Rohingya, which some have called a genocide, has created 700,000 refugees in neighboring Bangladesh and 128,000 internally displaced people. During by-elections in 2018, the NLD won seven out of 13 seats, but lost five out of six in non-Burman areas.
Htun Htun, The Irrawaddy: “The vice-chairman of the ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) party, Dr. Zaw Myint Maung, has urged NLD lawmakers to work hard, saying that people will not vote for them in the 2020 election just because they represent the party.”
Htun Aung Gyaw, Asia Times: “Burma’s democratic government has a chance to win a second term in office in the 2020 election because of Aung San Suu Kyi’s fame and her popularity is still strong within the country even though her government is facing many difficulties.”
Mi Ki Kyaw Myint, The Asia Foundation: “What Advice Do Myanmar’s Female MPs Have for Women Candidates in 2020?”
New Zealand Local – October 12, 2019 and Parliamentary – by November 21, 2020 (likely to be earlier)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Population: 4.5 million
New Zealand’s two main parties are the center-left Labour Party and center-right National Party. National won the most votes and seats in the 2017 elections, but not enough to form a government. Labour formed a coalition with New Zealand First, a populist party that has worked with both Labour and National in the past, backed by a confidence and supply agreement with the Green Party (Labour and New Zealand First combined have the same number of seats as National – 55). Labour leader Jacinda Ardern – a former DJ who is on the left wing of the party – became Prime Minister and is currently the world’s youngest female government.
Local elections in New Zealand have had low turnout for decades, but the local polls could serve as an interesting barometer ahead of next year’s parliamentary polls – which are due by November 2020 but could be called earlier – for which parties have already started campaigning.
Laura Dooney, Radio New Zealand: “Former Wellington mayor Justin Lester applies for election result recount….He’s applied for a recount after losing the mayoralty in this month’s local elections to Mayor-elect Andy Foster by 62 votes.”
AFP: “New Zealand to add euthanasia vote to 2020’s election: The proposal passed after a heated debate in parliament, but one calls the bill ‘repugnant’”
Luke Malpass, Stuff (New Zealand): “Two years down, parties shaping up for election battle”
Singapore General – April 2021 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 6 million
People’s Action Party (PAP), co-founded by Lee Kuan Yew Singapore’s first prime minister, has been in power since 1959. While elections aren’t rigged in the classic sense (no stuffed ballot boxes), they take place in a context that effectively prevents the opposition from actually taking power, and the opposition has not historically run to actually win – their pitch to voters has been promises to provide a check on the PAP.
The government uses a variety of tactics – including libel lawsuits, influence over the media, and laws that restrict political speech – to hamstring the opposition, while arguing that Singaporeans support PAP because it has governed competently. The 2015 elections gave PAP 83 out of the 89 elected seats in parliament. The next elections are due in 2021, but Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (Lee Kuan Yew’s son) has hinted that he would call early elections.
Wan Ting Koh, Yahoo News Singapore: “’Trust is about what you do’: Singapore Democratic Party holds pre-election rally at Hong Lim Park”
Past Asia Elections
Thailand Parliamentary By-Election in Nakhon Pathom – October 23, 2019 and Local – March 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 68.6 million
The March 24, 2019 parliamentary election nominally returned Thailand to civilian rule following a military coup in 2014.
The main political fault line during the elections was between pro- and anti-junta political parties. Pheu Thai, a populist party founded by controversial former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra – who was ousted from office and convicted of corruption and is now living in exile – won the most seats (136 out of 500). However, Pheu Thai’s negotiations with the newly-formed progressive Future Forward Party (FFP) and several others fell through. For two decades, the (sometimes violent) fight between Thaksin and the military dominated Thai politics, and FFP originally been formed to give voters an alternative.
Former junta chief Prayuth Chan-ocha’s new pro-junta Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) then formed a government in coalition with several other parties, including former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s Democrats. Prayuth became prime minister. The military still wields considerable power behind the scenes.
James Massola, Sydney Morning Herald: “’Attitude adjustment’: Report highlights Thailand’s quiet war on critics”
India, Haryana State and Maharashtra State Assemblies – October 21, 2019 Jharkhand State Assembly – November 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: India – 1.3 billion; Maharashtra -112 million; Haryana – 25 million; Jharkhand – 32 million
India has 29 states and seven union territories. Indian states are big – Maharashtra, whose capital is Mumbai, has 112 million people, Haryana 25 million, and Jharkhand 32 million. Coalitions headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently control all three state legislatures. The BJP won a massive victory in elections to the Lok Sabha, India’s national parliament, earlier this year, giving it a second term in power as the majority party able to govern without coalition partners, in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – did well in a series of state elections late last year but is reeling from the whiplash of defeat in the Lok Sabha polls.
The state elections are happening in the context of a renewed push from Modi to institute “one nation, one election” – a proposal to hold state elections at the same time as elections to the Lok Sabha. Critics say the plan is a ploy to centralize power, part of a pattern that includes Modi’s surprise decision to strip the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir of its autonomy. Critics accuse Modi and the BJP of increasing authoritarianism.
In a surprise geopolitical development, on August 5, 2019, the Modi government made a unilateral decision to strip the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir of its autonomy. The region, which is majority Muslim, is claimed by both India and Pakistan and has sparked three wars. For seventy years, the Indian-controlled part – established as the state of Jammu and Kashmir – enjoyed a high degree of autonomy, but Modi announced that the state would be downgraded into two union territories, effectively centralizing control. The area remains on virtual lockdown. Some have been critical of the decision, which Modi defends.
BBC: “India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has lost its majority in a key state election. It has won 40 seats in the northern state of Haryana, which is six short of the simple majority needed to retain power. The party and its ally, Shiv Sena, have held onto power in the western state of Maharashtra, but lost 15 of their seats. The results are being seen as a temporary setback for PM Narendra Modi.”
Shivam Vij, Quartz: “Recent poll results show that nationalist rhetoric won’t help Modi hide economic woes forever”
Srinivasan Ramani, The Hindu: “Election results 2019 Analysis | All is not lost for the Indian Opposition”
India Today: “Election Results: BJP, JJP announce alliance to form govt in Haryana”
AP: “India holds Kashmir elections despite lockdown, boycott: Heavy contingents of police and paramilitary soldiers guard polling stations. Village council elections were held Thursday [October 24] across Indian-controlled Kashmir, with the detention of many mainstream local politicians and a boycott by most parties prompting expectations that the polls will install supporters of the central Hindu nationalist-led government that revoked the region’s semi-autonomous status in August.”
AP: “Independent candidates have overwhelmingly won village council elections held in Indian-controlled Kashmir months after New Delhi imposed a harsh security crackdown and stripped the region of its semi-autonomous status.”
Japan Legislative (half of upper house) – July 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 126.2 million
Shinzo Abe’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) sought to gain a two-thirds majority in the upper house (which it already held in the lower house with coalition partner Komeito, a Buddhist religious party) in order to revisit and possibly amend Japan’s pacifist constitution. LDP and Komeito did maintain their majority in the upper house, but fell short of the super-majority.
The Mainichi: “A Japanese court ruled Friday that July’s upper house election was constitutional despite a disparity of up to 3.00 times in the weight of a single vote between the most and least populated constituencies. The ruling was the third related to the July 21 House of Councillors election after two groups of lawyers filed suits with 14 high courts and their branches across Japan. It is the first time that the vote disparity of the election has been judged to be constitutional.”
Indonesia General – April 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 262.8 million
In Indonesia’s April 2019 election – the biggest single day of voting in the history of the world – incumbent Joko Widodo (Jokowi), widely seen as a reformer, defeated challenged Prabowo Subianto for the presidency in an election deemed free and fair by the international community. However, Prabowo didn’t accept the results, and in addition to challenging them in court, he urged his supporters to take to the streets. Rioting ensued. Prabowo ultimately accepted the results, but tensions remain, particularly regarding the role of religion in politics.
Indonesia will hold regional elections in September 2020, and the next presidential election is due in 2024.
Maikel Jefriando, Reuters: “Indonesia president taps opposition, start-up founder for new cabinet”
Erwin Renaldi, ABC News (Australia): “Indonesians have expressed disappointment Indonesian President Joko Widodo has selected Opposition Leader Prabowo Subianto to serve in his new Cabinet as Defence Minister. Mr Widodo unveiled the Cabinet for his second term on Wednesday, picking former industry minister Airlangga Hartarto to head his economic team and retaining economist Sri Mulyani Indrawati as Finance Minister.”
Erin Cook, The Diplomat: “What Does Jokowi’s New Cabinet Mean for Indonesia? The lineup offers some early insights on how his second term may shape up.”
Airlangga Pribadi Kusman, University of Melbourne’s Indonesia at Melbourne: “When is a tadpole like a bat? The riddle of Indonesia’s vanishing political divide”
Cambodia General – July 29, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 16.4 million
Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that had some element of competition, the 2018 election – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.
The 2018 election has been described as the “death of democracy” in Cambodia. Since then, Cambodia has worked to suppress all critical voices, including journalists, civil society, and the opposition. The United States sanctioned Cambodia’s top officials in response.
Radio Free Asia: “Authorities in Cambodia’s border provinces of Battambang and Mondulkiri have launched anti-protest training initiatives for members of the security forces, as the clock winds down on the planned return from exile next month of Sam Rainsy, the acting president of the country’s banned opposition party.”
Andrew Nachemson, Al Jazeera: “Questions over Rainsy’s Cambodia return after deputy turned back: Thailand denied entry to Mu Sochua, raising doubts about plan for opposition leaders to take land route back home.”
Hul Reaksmey, VOA: “Civil Society Groups Say Government Failed To Uphold Peace Agreement Values”
Papua New Guinea General – June-July 2017
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Population: 7 million
Papua New Guinea’s politics are chaotic, and no single party has ever commanded a majority in parliament. Coalitions shift frequently. James Marape became prime minister in May 2018 when former prime minister Peter O’Neill lost a no-confidence vote after being in power for eight years. It is unclear whether Marape will effectively address Papua New Guinea’s continuing problems of corruption and mismanagement of the economy.
Johnny Blades, Radio New Zealand: “Gamato arrest highlights troubled PNG election: Papua New Guinea’s Electoral Commissioner has been arrested in relation to the country’s flawed 2017 elections.”
21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.
The Year Ahead: Asia
Japan, provincial elections throughout the year; Bangladesh parliamentary by-election in Rangpur (October 5); New Zealand local (October 12); India, Maharashtra and Haryana states (October 21); Marshall Islands legislative (November); India Jharkhand State (November); Sri Lanka presidential (November 16); Hong Kong local (November 24); Kiribati legislative (December); Nepal by-elections (December 30); Taiwan presidential and legislative (January 11); Kiribati presidential (March); Maldives local (April); South Korea parliamentary (April 15); Niue parliamentary (May); Philippines village and youth council (May 11 – delay to 2023 possible); Mongolia parliamentary (June)
Comments
Share this:
Related
Category: This Week Tags: Burma, Cambodia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand