Americas This Week – October 26, 2019

October 26, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Americas elections on Saturdays. Click the map pins.

Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 – Throughout the year

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 44.7 million

On the presidential front: Incumbent Mauricio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.

In the primaries on August 11, 2019, in which voters must select both a preferred party and a preferred candidate, Fernández and Kirchner won an unexpectedly high 47 percent of the vote, compared with Macri’s 33 percent. Inflation spiked following the primaries.

Uruguay General – October 27, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free 
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 3.4 million

Nicknamed the “Switzerland of South America,” Uruguay is wealthier than the its neighbors and politically neutral. The three major parties are the center-left and social democratic Frente Amplio (Broad Front) coalition, the center-right National Party (PN), and the liberal Colorado Party (PC). FA holds a razor-thin majority in the General Assembly, with 16 out of 31 Senate seats and 50 out of 99 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. It has had a majority in the General Assembly and held the presidency since 2005. President Tabaré Vázquez, who was elected in 2014 and had also been president from 2005 to 2010, is not able to run this year because the constitution does not allow consecutive terms.

Corruption allegations and slow economic growth could hurt FA’s chances in these elections. During the June 30, 2019 primaries – in which voters also express a preferred party – FA received only 23.6 percent of the vote, with PN winning 41.6 and PC picking up 16.8.

Colombia Local – October 27, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.2 million

Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections, with at least seven mayoral candidates murdered.

Montserrat (United Kingdom) Legislative - November 18, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy (self-governing overseas territory of the UK)
Population: 5,315

At stake: All 9 seats in Montserrat’s unicameral legislature

Guyana Provincial and Snap Parliamentary – March 2, 2020

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 741,000

Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil.

In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation delayed the process. After months of back-and-forth, Granger announced that the election would take place on March 2, 2020.

Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese. 

Bolivia General – October 20, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.3 million

Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates. A court banned the publication of polls showing Morales may face a runoff.

Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS) currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.

Canada General – October 21, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
Population: 35.9 million

The election will be a competitive contest between the center-right Conservatives and incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s center-left Liberals. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Most recently, photos emerged of Trudeau in brownface, which hurt the Liberals’ polling numbers.

Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.

Ecuador General – February 19, 2017

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 16.5 million

Chile General – December 2017

Freedom House Rating: Free 
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 17.9 million

Upcoming Americas Elections
Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 – Throughout the year
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 44.7 million

On the presidential front: Incumbent Mauricio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.

In the primaries on August 11, 2019, in which voters must select both a preferred party and a preferred candidate, Fernández and Kirchner won an unexpectedly high 47 percent of the vote, compared with Macri’s 33 percent. Inflation spiked following the primaries.

Updated October 28, 2019

Ryan Dube, Wall Street Journal: “Argentina’s President Mauricio Macri Concedes Election to Peronist Rival Alberto Fernández: The vote has far-reaching consequences for international creditors and the future of a trade agreement with the European Union.”

Ernesto Londoño and Daniel Politi, New York Times: “In Argentina Election, Leftists Savor Victory Over Incumbent President Mauricio Macri was defeated by a ticket that included former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in the No. 2 spot.”

Philip Reeves, NPR (Podcast): “Argentine Election Results Suggest A Turn To Leftist Populism”

Uruguay General – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free 
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 3.4 million

Nicknamed the “Switzerland of South America,” Uruguay is wealthier than the its neighbors and politically neutral. The three major parties are the center-left and social democratic Frente Amplio (Broad Front) coalition, the center-right National Party (PN), and the liberal Colorado Party (PC). FA holds a razor-thin majority in the General Assembly, with 16 out of 31 Senate seats and 50 out of 99 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. It has had a majority in the General Assembly and held the presidency since 2005. President Tabaré Vázquez, who was elected in 2014 and had also been president from 2005 to 2010, is not able to run this year because the constitution does not allow consecutive terms.

Corruption allegations and slow economic growth could hurt FA’s chances in these elections. During the June 30, 2019 primaries – in which voters also express a preferred party – FA received only 23.6 percent of the vote, with PN winning 41.6 and PC picking up 16.8.

The Economist: “Uruguay’s remarkably civilised election: The election will probably end 15 years of rule by the left. The change will not be dramatic.”

Updated October 28, 2019

Juan Martinez, Rio Times: “Uruguay to Have Second Round Presidential Election: The second round in November will be between frontrunners Martínez (39.9 percent) and Lacalle Pou (29 percent). The Colorado Party and Cabildo Abierto candidates came third and fourth, respectively.”

Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.2 million

Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections, with at least seven mayoral candidates murdered.

Steven Grattan, Al Jazeera: “Colombians vote in first local elections since 2016 peace deal: The lead up to the elections has been marred by violence, with at least seven candidates killed and others attacked.”

Christine Armario and CÉsar Garcia, AP: “The Electoral Observation Mission counts 108 violent incidents against candidates thus far, ranging from ominous pamphlets to deadly sniper attacks. That’s up from 74 in 2015, when rebels with the former Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia were in talks with the government and had declared a ceasefire.”

Adriaan Alsema, Colombia Reports: “Colombia’s local elections: fraud in Medellin, unrest and threats in countryside”

AP: “Bogota, Colombia’s capital, elects first woman and lesbian mayor: Many in the LGBTQ community praised Claudia López’s victory as an important step forward in a country where gay and lesbians still confront harassment.”

Montserrat (United Kingdom) Legislative – November 18, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy (self-governing overseas territory of the UK)
Population: 5,315

At stake: All 9 seats in Montserrat’s unicameral legislature

CMC, Barbados Today: “Insisting that ‘my mission is not over,’ Premier Donaldson Romeo has announced that he would be contesting the November 18 general election as an independent candidate. Romeo, 57, who led the ruling People’s Democratic Movement (PDM), was ousted as its leader earlier this month, less than 24 hours after he had announced that voters in this British overseas territory would go to the polls on November 18 to elect a new government.”

Guyana Provincial and Snap Parliamentary – March 2, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 741,000

Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil.

In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation delayed the process. After months of back-and-forth, Granger announced that the election would take place on March 2, 2020.

Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese. 

CMC News: “A new political party, promising campaign financing legislation, was launched here as Guyana prepares to hold fresh regional and general election on March 2 next year. The Citizenship Initiative (CI), which has also indicated that it has no intention of joining with either the People’s National Congress (PNC), which is part of the ruling coalition administration and the main opposition People’s Progressive Party Civic (PPP/C), said it intends to change the way issues related to politics are addressed in Guyana.”

Starbroek News: “People’s Progressive Party/ Civic (PPP/C) presidential candidate Irfaan Ali says he is not fazed by the formation of new parties  and their possible impact on his chances at the upcoming general elections.”

Past Americas Elections
Bolivia General – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.3 million

Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates. A court banned the publication of polls showing Morales may face a runoff.

Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS) currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.

Updated October 28, 2019

Linda Farthing, Al Jazeera: “Challenges ahead for Bolivia’s Morales after divisive election: Bolivian President Evo Morales will likely face difficulty governing, analysts say, after a heavily contested election that included accusations of widespread fraud.”

Reuters: “The Bolivian government said on Sunday it planned to agree a deal with the Organization of American States (OAS) within days to audit a controversial national election that handed President Evo Morales an outright win amid allegations of vote-rigging.”

AP: “Official results from the Oct. 20 elections gave Morales just enough of a majority needed to avoid a risky runoff against a united opposition. Second-place finisher Carlos Mesa says the count was manipulated and has refused to accept it. He wants a runoff in any case — noting the OAS itself suggested that as a way to ensure confidence in the system.”


Reuters: “Protesters blocked roads and shopowners kept their stores shut in La Paz on Monday morning as Bolivians took to the streets in a strike called by the opposition to protest what they say was fraud at elections giving President Evo Morales a fourth term.”

Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
Population: 35.9 million

The election will be a competitive contest between the center-right Conservatives and incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s center-left Liberals. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Most recently, photos emerged of Trudeau in brownface, which hurt the Liberals’ polling numbers.

Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.

Ian Austen and Dan Bilefsky, New York Times: “Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party Weakened but Re-Elected in Canadian Election The Liberal Party is projected to lose its majority but keep enough seats to form a government.”

David Frum, The Atlantic: “This Election Brought Out Canada’s Worst: Almost alone among the advanced democracies, the country has been bypassed by reactionary populism.”

Benjamin Woodfinden, The American Interest: “Why Canada Won’t Go Populist”

Ecuador General – February 19, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 16.5 million

Reuters: “Ecuador’s indigenous movement said Wednesday that it paused talks with President Lenin Moreno because of the government’s ‘persecution’ of the group’s leaders since a halt to violent anti-austerity protests. Jaime Vargas, head of the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE) said the group had entered the talks ‘in good faith,’ but an atmosphere of trust did not exist.”

Chile General – December 2017
Freedom House Rating: Free 
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 17.9 million

AP: “Rioting, arson attacks and violent clashes wracked Chile for a fifth day Tuesday [October 22], as the government declared 15 people dead in an upheaval that has nearly paralyzed the South American country long seen as one of the region’s most stable.”

Juan Forero, Wall Street Journal: “Chile Protesters’ Grievances Shift to Inequality, Rattling Government: What began as students hopping turnstiles over a 3.7% rise in subway fares morphed into mass protests about an array of concerns”

Helen Regan and Bethlehem Feleke, CNN: “Chile protests: UN to send human rights investigators as violent clashes continue”

 

The Year Ahead: Americas Elections
Canada provincial and territorial (throughout the year);  Haiti parliamentary (due October – delays likely – ongoing crisis); Bolivia presidential and legislative (October 20); Canada general (October 21); Argentina presidential and legislative (October 27); Uruguay presidential and legislative (October 27); Colombia local (October 27); Trinidad and Tobago local (November); Dominica legislative (December); Peru snap legislative (January – possible but not certain – ongoing crisis); St. Kitts and Nevis legislative (February); Costa Rica local (February 2); Guyana snap parliamentary (overdue – possibly November but likely in 2020); Dominican Republican presidential and parliamentary (May 17); Suriname presidential and parliamentary (May 25); Trinidad and Tobago presidential and parliamentary (September)


A protest in Bolivia on October 22, 2019. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Canal 7 de Jujuy (CC BY 2.5)

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