Upcoming Eurasia Elections
Belarus Legislative – November 7 (upper house, indirect) and 17, 2019 (lower house, direct) and Presidential – August 30, 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)
Population: 9.5 million
Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.
Halina Abakunchyk, Belsat: “Candidates under pressure as election campaign begins in Belarus: The campaigning for candidates in the elections to the House of Representatives has begun: the state radio and television broadcast speeches of candidates, and special pickets appeared on the streets of cities. But there have been incidents.”
Dominik Istrate, Emerging Europe: “The Belarusian government is only “creating the illusion of compliance with international standards” instead of respecting internationally recognised values such as freedom and democracy, Anais Marin, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Belarus has told the UN General Assembly in her latest report.”
Azerbaijan Municipal – December 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 10 million
Elections in Azerbaijan are neither competitive nor credible, and are marred by fraud and intimidation of the opposition and civil society. In last year’s presidential election, President Ilham Aliev, whose family has ruled Azerbaijan since 1993, won overwhelmingly after opposition candidates were jailed or barred from running. The opposition boycotted the 2015 parliamentary elections. The last municipal elections took place in 2014, and were dominated – unsurprisingly – by Aliev’s New Azerbaijan Party (YAP).
Bloomberg News: “Worst Baku Clashes in Years Followed by Claims of Critic’s Abuse: The political fallout of rare anti-government demonstrations is spreading in Azerbaijan, with the European Union issuing a warning and an opposition leader saying he was beaten up by riot police following his arrest on Saturday [October 19].”
Sabina Abubakirova, OC Media: “The main demands of the protesters were the return of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijani control, the release of political prisoners, free elections, childcare subsidies, and the introduction of medical insurance.”
bne IntelliNews: “Human Rights Watch (HRW) has criticised Azerbaijan for what it claims was the violent dispersal of two peaceful protests in central Baku on October 19 and 20. Police rounded up dozens of peaceful opposition and civic activists, beating and roughing them up while forcing them onto buses and into police cars, HRW said in a report on events in the tightly controlled country.”
Nailia Bagirova, Reuters: “Azerbaijan’s president dismissed the influential head of his presidential administration on Wednesday, part of a reshuffle since he criticized the pace of economic reforms in the oil- and gas- producing country.”
Elchin Mehdiyev, Trend (Azerbaijan): “Nomination of candidates for members of municipalities to begin in Azerbaijan”
Tajikistan Parliamentary – March 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 8.6 million
Tajikistan is an authoritarian state with no free or fair elections, no genuine, credible opposition operating inside the country, and almost no independent media. The People’s Democratic Party of President Emomali Rahmon (who has been in power since 1994) won most of the seats in the Assembly of Representatives in the 2015 elections, which were surrounded by the arrest and torture of opposition figures and a smear campaign of the opposition by state-controlled media. The opposition Islamic Renaissance Party (IRPT) – the only actual opposition party to be represented in parliament – lost both its seats, and was banned shortly after the elections.
Emomali’s 31-year-old son Rustam Emomali has been installed as mayor of the capital, Dushanbe, and is possibly being positioned to run for the presidency next year. During the 2013 elections, the opposition united behind the secular candidate Oinihol Bobonazarova, but she withdrew from the race after being unable to collect the required signatures, probably due to the fact that her campaign volunteers were being arrested while they collected signatures.
OCCRP: “The Supreme Court of Tajikistan declared the National Alliance of Tajikistan, which united exiled Tajik political opponents, an extremist terrorist organization and banned its activities.”
Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary – October 4, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 5.8 million
Kyrgyzstan began a halting transition to democracy following the Tulip Revolution of 2005, and following another revolution in 2010, the country switched to a parliamentary system and presidents were restricted to one term in office, in an effort to curtail presidential power and authoritarian backsliding. The current president, Sooronbay Jeenbekov, was elected in 2017, leading to Kyrgyzstan’s first peaceful transfer of power between two elected presidents. Jeenbekov had been backed by his predecessor, Almazbek Atambayev, but relations between the two have since soured. Atambayev staged a series of protests. The political climate remains tense ahead of next year’s parliamentary polls.
Eurasianet: “Explainer: How did Kyrgyzstan’s ex-president fall so low? Almazbek Atambayev, who faces astounding array of charges, is refusing to appear in court. We explain how he got here.”
Chris Rickleton, Eurasianet: “Kyrgyzstan: Political oddball’s stunts rile testy government: An eccentric businessman who rose to fame in Kyrgyzstan for predicting the extinction of winter and calling Russian leader Vladimir Putin a biorobot is facing prosecution for declaring himself God.”
Ukraine Elections in Donbas – Proposed (TBD)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 44 million
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced a plan to withdraw Ukrainian forces from the east, where Russian-backed separatists currently control territory, and hold elections. It is a very controversial plan and was met with protests.
Actor and comedian Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate during Ukraine’s presidential and legislative elections earlier this year centered on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.
Zelensky’s Servant of the People party previously did not have any seats in the Rada, but swept the elections to win an unprecedented parliamentary majority. More than half of the MPs are new.
Duncan Allen and Leo Litra, Chatham House: “Zelenskyy Finds That There Are No Easy Solutions in Donbas:The president has attempted to use the so-called Steinmeier Formula to find a compromise on holding elections in the east of Ukraine. But he has run into a stark reality: Moscow and Kyiv’s interests remain irreconcilable.”
Rick Noack, Washington Post: “Why Hungary’s Orban would want Trump to sour on Ukraine: The revelation that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Russian President Vladimir Putin urged President Trump to adopt a more hostile view of Ukraine highlights a complex geopolitical dispute that has lingered over Eastern and Central Europe for decades.”
Hromadske: “Ukrainians rate progress since the elections: Ukrainians often have a reputation for being a cynical, pessimistic people. But a new series of polls by polling group ‘Rating’ have shown that Ukrainians are becoming more optimistic – albeit slowly.”
Melinda Haring, Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert: “Ukraine’s new parliament is moving fast but is it getting anywhere?”
Past Eurasia Elections
Moldova Local – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 3.4 million
Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.
The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister, but is running for mayor of Chisinau again). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.
Emerging Europe: “The Moldovan Socialist Party (PSRM) has taken the most votes in the first round of the country’s local elections, held on October 20….Turnout across the country was 41.6 per cent.”
RFE/RL: “A runoff election is set for the all-important mayoral seat of Moldova’s capital between pro-Russian Ion Ceban and the pro-EU ACUM bloc’s Andrei Nastase, with almost all the votes counted. Moldova’s October 20 elections were held for nearly 900 mayoral posts, more than 11,000 local council seats, as well as four seats in parliament.”
Council of Europe: “Republic of Moldova: Preliminary findings of the local election observation mission”
Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation
Population: 142.1 million
Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.
In last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.
This year, a number of genuine opposition figures sought to run for local office, but authorities blocked their access to the ballot. In response, citizens held a series of protests, resulting in a harsh crackdown. The protests have shown a level of coordination among the opposition not seen since the 1990s. Opposition leader Alexei Navalny encouraged “smart voting” – voting for the candidate most likely to beat United Russia – which resulted in a reduction in the number of seats won by pro-Kremlin candidates, despite major fraud and other irregularities. After the elections, the Kremlin waged a brutal crackdown on the opposition and civil society.
Oliver Carroll, The Independent: “Russia vs the kids: Authorities resume crackdown on protest generation: Summer of rallies pitched the Kremlin against a youth-led protest movement. After dialling down their operation, authorities seem to be renewing a clampdown, writes Oliver Carroll from Moscow.”
Jamie Dettmer, VOA: “Apparently persuaded by groundless conspiracy theories of foreign meddling, the Kremlin and Russia’s security agencies seem impervious to calls for them to adopt a more relaxed approach to their critics and opposition groups. The Kremlin is continuing a campaign of harassment against opposition leaders and their followers, say analysts and government critics, even though recent anti-government protests have not weakened Vladimir Putin’s grip on power.”
AFP: “Russian President Vladimir Putin has removed several opposition figures from his human rights council, a decree published Monday showed, with critics saying the move robs the advisory body of its legitimacy. The 50-member body, which has spoken out against abuses, has gradually been losing influence and many respected members of the human rights community have already quit in protest at various Kremlin actions.”
Leonid Ragozin, Al Jazeera: “The Kremlin’s anger is proof that Navalny is winning: Despite attempts to silence the opposition leader, the trajectory of public opinion is shifting away from Putin.”
Kazakhstan Snap Presidential – June 9, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 18.7 million
Longtime strongman Nursultan Nazerbayev, who ruled Kazakhstan since independence in 1991, surprised everyone by stepping down and calling a snap presidential election. Unsurprisingly, his chosen successor, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, won in a tightly-managed election that observers judged not free and not fair. In the days surrounding the election, over 1,000 people were arrested for peacefully protesting. No real opposition exists within Kazakhstan, but some think that the seeds of a civic awakening are being planted.
RFE/RL: “Kazakh President President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev has handed his predecessor, Nursultan Nazarbaev, more sweeping powers, according to a presidential decree published on October 21. Toqaev, 66, became president after Nazarbaev’s surprise resignation in March. Nazarbaev, 79, spent almost three decades in power and is still considered Kazakhstan’s top decision-maker.”
Eurasia This Week – October 24, 2019
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Last Updated: February 21, 2020 by 21votes
October 24, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Eurasia on Thursdays. Click the map pins.
Belarus Legislative – November 7 (upper house, indirect) and 17, 2019 (lower house, direct) and Presidential – August 30, 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)
Population: 9.5 million
Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.
Azerbaijan Municipal – December 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 10 million
Elections in Azerbaijan are neither competitive nor credible, and are marred by fraud and intimidation of the opposition and civil society. In last year’s presidential election, President Ilham Aliev, whose family has ruled Azerbaijan since 1993, won overwhelmingly after opposition candidates were jailed or barred from running. The opposition boycotted the 2015 parliamentary elections. The last municipal elections took place in 2014, and were dominated – unsurprisingly – by Aliev’s New Azerbaijan Party (YAP).
Tajikistan Presidential – 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 8.6 million
Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary - October 4, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 5.8 million
Kyrgyzstan began a halting transition to democracy following the Tulip Revolution of 2005, and following another revolution in 2010, the country switched to a parliamentary system and presidents were restricted to one term in office, in an effort to curtail presidential power and authoritarian backsliding. The current president, Sooronbay Jeenbekov, was elected in 2017, leading to Kyrgyzstan’s first peaceful transfer of power between two elected presidents. Jeenbekov had been backed by his predecessor, Almazbek Atambayev, but relations between the two have since soured. Atambayev staged a series of protests. The political climate remains tense ahead of next year’s parliamentary polls.
Ukraine Elections in Donbas – Proposed (TBD)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 44 million
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced a plan to withdraw Ukrainian forces from the east, where Russian-backed separatists currently control territory, and hold elections. It is a very controversial plan and was met with protests.
Actor and comedian Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate during Ukraine’s presidential and legislative elections earlier this year centered on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.
Zelensky’s Servant of the People party previously did not have any seats in the Rada, but swept the elections to win an unprecedented parliamentary majority. More than half of the MPs are new.
Moldova Local – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 3.4 million
Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.
The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister, but is running for mayor of Chisinau again). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.
Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation
Population: 142.1 million
Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.
In last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.
This year, a number of genuine opposition figures sought to run for local office, but authorities blocked their access to the ballot. In response, citizens held a series of protests, resulting in a harsh crackdown. The protests have shown a level of coordination among the opposition not seen since the 1990s. Opposition leader Alexei Navalny encouraged “smart voting” – voting for the candidate most likely to beat United Russia – which resulted in a reduction in the number of seats won by pro-Kremlin candidates, despite major fraud and other irregularities. After the elections, the Kremlin waged a brutal crackdown on the opposition and civil society.
Kazakhstan Snap Presidential – June 9, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 18.7 million
Longtime strongman Nursultan Nazerbayev, who ruled Kazakhstan since independence in 1991, surprised everyone by stepping down and calling a snap presidential election. Unsurprisingly, his chosen successor, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, won in a tightly-managed election that observers judged not free and not fair. In the days surrounding the election, over 1,000 people were arrested for peacefully protesting. No real opposition exists within Kazakhstan, but some think that the seeds of a civic awakening are being planted.
Upcoming Eurasia Elections
Belarus Legislative – November 7 (upper house, indirect) and 17, 2019 (lower house, direct) and Presidential – August 30, 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)
Population: 9.5 million
Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.
Halina Abakunchyk, Belsat: “Candidates under pressure as election campaign begins in Belarus: The campaigning for candidates in the elections to the House of Representatives has begun: the state radio and television broadcast speeches of candidates, and special pickets appeared on the streets of cities. But there have been incidents.”
Dominik Istrate, Emerging Europe: “The Belarusian government is only “creating the illusion of compliance with international standards” instead of respecting internationally recognised values such as freedom and democracy, Anais Marin, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Belarus has told the UN General Assembly in her latest report.”
Azerbaijan Municipal – December 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 10 million
Elections in Azerbaijan are neither competitive nor credible, and are marred by fraud and intimidation of the opposition and civil society. In last year’s presidential election, President Ilham Aliev, whose family has ruled Azerbaijan since 1993, won overwhelmingly after opposition candidates were jailed or barred from running. The opposition boycotted the 2015 parliamentary elections. The last municipal elections took place in 2014, and were dominated – unsurprisingly – by Aliev’s New Azerbaijan Party (YAP).
Bloomberg News: “Worst Baku Clashes in Years Followed by Claims of Critic’s Abuse: The political fallout of rare anti-government demonstrations is spreading in Azerbaijan, with the European Union issuing a warning and an opposition leader saying he was beaten up by riot police following his arrest on Saturday [October 19].”
Sabina Abubakirova, OC Media: “The main demands of the protesters were the return of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijani control, the release of political prisoners, free elections, childcare subsidies, and the introduction of medical insurance.”
bne IntelliNews: “Human Rights Watch (HRW) has criticised Azerbaijan for what it claims was the violent dispersal of two peaceful protests in central Baku on October 19 and 20. Police rounded up dozens of peaceful opposition and civic activists, beating and roughing them up while forcing them onto buses and into police cars, HRW said in a report on events in the tightly controlled country.”
Nailia Bagirova, Reuters: “Azerbaijan’s president dismissed the influential head of his presidential administration on Wednesday, part of a reshuffle since he criticized the pace of economic reforms in the oil- and gas- producing country.”
Elchin Mehdiyev, Trend (Azerbaijan): “Nomination of candidates for members of municipalities to begin in Azerbaijan”
Tajikistan Parliamentary – March 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 8.6 million
Tajikistan is an authoritarian state with no free or fair elections, no genuine, credible opposition operating inside the country, and almost no independent media. The People’s Democratic Party of President Emomali Rahmon (who has been in power since 1994) won most of the seats in the Assembly of Representatives in the 2015 elections, which were surrounded by the arrest and torture of opposition figures and a smear campaign of the opposition by state-controlled media. The opposition Islamic Renaissance Party (IRPT) – the only actual opposition party to be represented in parliament – lost both its seats, and was banned shortly after the elections.
Emomali’s 31-year-old son Rustam Emomali has been installed as mayor of the capital, Dushanbe, and is possibly being positioned to run for the presidency next year. During the 2013 elections, the opposition united behind the secular candidate Oinihol Bobonazarova, but she withdrew from the race after being unable to collect the required signatures, probably due to the fact that her campaign volunteers were being arrested while they collected signatures.
OCCRP: “The Supreme Court of Tajikistan declared the National Alliance of Tajikistan, which united exiled Tajik political opponents, an extremist terrorist organization and banned its activities.”
Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary – October 4, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 5.8 million
Kyrgyzstan began a halting transition to democracy following the Tulip Revolution of 2005, and following another revolution in 2010, the country switched to a parliamentary system and presidents were restricted to one term in office, in an effort to curtail presidential power and authoritarian backsliding. The current president, Sooronbay Jeenbekov, was elected in 2017, leading to Kyrgyzstan’s first peaceful transfer of power between two elected presidents. Jeenbekov had been backed by his predecessor, Almazbek Atambayev, but relations between the two have since soured. Atambayev staged a series of protests. The political climate remains tense ahead of next year’s parliamentary polls.
Eurasianet: “Explainer: How did Kyrgyzstan’s ex-president fall so low? Almazbek Atambayev, who faces astounding array of charges, is refusing to appear in court. We explain how he got here.”
Chris Rickleton, Eurasianet: “Kyrgyzstan: Political oddball’s stunts rile testy government: An eccentric businessman who rose to fame in Kyrgyzstan for predicting the extinction of winter and calling Russian leader Vladimir Putin a biorobot is facing prosecution for declaring himself God.”
Ukraine Elections in Donbas – Proposed (TBD)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 44 million
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced a plan to withdraw Ukrainian forces from the east, where Russian-backed separatists currently control territory, and hold elections. It is a very controversial plan and was met with protests.
Actor and comedian Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate during Ukraine’s presidential and legislative elections earlier this year centered on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.
Zelensky’s Servant of the People party previously did not have any seats in the Rada, but swept the elections to win an unprecedented parliamentary majority. More than half of the MPs are new.
Duncan Allen and Leo Litra, Chatham House: “Zelenskyy Finds That There Are No Easy Solutions in Donbas:The president has attempted to use the so-called Steinmeier Formula to find a compromise on holding elections in the east of Ukraine. But he has run into a stark reality: Moscow and Kyiv’s interests remain irreconcilable.”
Rick Noack, Washington Post: “Why Hungary’s Orban would want Trump to sour on Ukraine: The revelation that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Russian President Vladimir Putin urged President Trump to adopt a more hostile view of Ukraine highlights a complex geopolitical dispute that has lingered over Eastern and Central Europe for decades.”
Hromadske: “Ukrainians rate progress since the elections: Ukrainians often have a reputation for being a cynical, pessimistic people. But a new series of polls by polling group ‘Rating’ have shown that Ukrainians are becoming more optimistic – albeit slowly.”
Melinda Haring, Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert: “Ukraine’s new parliament is moving fast but is it getting anywhere?”
Past Eurasia Elections
Moldova Local – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 3.4 million
Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.
The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister, but is running for mayor of Chisinau again). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.
Emerging Europe: “The Moldovan Socialist Party (PSRM) has taken the most votes in the first round of the country’s local elections, held on October 20….Turnout across the country was 41.6 per cent.”
RFE/RL: “A runoff election is set for the all-important mayoral seat of Moldova’s capital between pro-Russian Ion Ceban and the pro-EU ACUM bloc’s Andrei Nastase, with almost all the votes counted. Moldova’s October 20 elections were held for nearly 900 mayoral posts, more than 11,000 local council seats, as well as four seats in parliament.”
Council of Europe: “Republic of Moldova: Preliminary findings of the local election observation mission”
Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation
Population: 142.1 million
Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.
In last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.
This year, a number of genuine opposition figures sought to run for local office, but authorities blocked their access to the ballot. In response, citizens held a series of protests, resulting in a harsh crackdown. The protests have shown a level of coordination among the opposition not seen since the 1990s. Opposition leader Alexei Navalny encouraged “smart voting” – voting for the candidate most likely to beat United Russia – which resulted in a reduction in the number of seats won by pro-Kremlin candidates, despite major fraud and other irregularities. After the elections, the Kremlin waged a brutal crackdown on the opposition and civil society.
Oliver Carroll, The Independent: “Russia vs the kids: Authorities resume crackdown on protest generation: Summer of rallies pitched the Kremlin against a youth-led protest movement. After dialling down their operation, authorities seem to be renewing a clampdown, writes Oliver Carroll from Moscow.”
Jamie Dettmer, VOA: “Apparently persuaded by groundless conspiracy theories of foreign meddling, the Kremlin and Russia’s security agencies seem impervious to calls for them to adopt a more relaxed approach to their critics and opposition groups. The Kremlin is continuing a campaign of harassment against opposition leaders and their followers, say analysts and government critics, even though recent anti-government protests have not weakened Vladimir Putin’s grip on power.”
AFP: “Russian President Vladimir Putin has removed several opposition figures from his human rights council, a decree published Monday showed, with critics saying the move robs the advisory body of its legitimacy. The 50-member body, which has spoken out against abuses, has gradually been losing influence and many respected members of the human rights community have already quit in protest at various Kremlin actions.”
Leonid Ragozin, Al Jazeera: “The Kremlin’s anger is proof that Navalny is winning: Despite attempts to silence the opposition leader, the trajectory of public opinion is shifting away from Putin.”
Kazakhstan Snap Presidential – June 9, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 18.7 million
Longtime strongman Nursultan Nazerbayev, who ruled Kazakhstan since independence in 1991, surprised everyone by stepping down and calling a snap presidential election. Unsurprisingly, his chosen successor, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, won in a tightly-managed election that observers judged not free and not fair. In the days surrounding the election, over 1,000 people were arrested for peacefully protesting. No real opposition exists within Kazakhstan, but some think that the seeds of a civic awakening are being planted.
RFE/RL: “Kazakh President President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev has handed his predecessor, Nursultan Nazarbaev, more sweeping powers, according to a presidential decree published on October 21. Toqaev, 66, became president after Nazarbaev’s surprise resignation in March. Nazarbaev, 79, spent almost three decades in power and is still considered Kazakhstan’s top decision-maker.”
The Year Ahead: Eurasia Elections
Belarus parliamentary (November 17); Uzbekistan parliamentary and local (December 19); Azerbaijan local (December 27); Tajikistan parliamentary (March)
21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.
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Category: This Week Tags: Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Ukraine