Upcoming Elections
India, Haryana State and Maharashtra State Assemblies – October 2019 or November 2019 and Jharkhand State Assembly – November 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
India has 29 states and seven union territories. Indian states are big – Maharashtra, whose capital is Mumbai, has 112 million people, Haryana 25 million, and Jharkhand 32 million. Coalitions headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently control all three state legislatures. The BJP won a massive victory in elections to the Lok Sabha, India’s national parliament, earlier this year, giving it a second term in power as the majority party able to govern without coalition partners, in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – did well in a series of state elections late last year but is reeling from the whiplash of defeat in the Lok Sabha polls. The state elections are happening in the context of a renewed push from Modi to institute “one nation, one election” – a proposal to hold state elections at the same time as elections to the Lok Sabha.
Amy Kazmin, Financial Times: “Modi shakes up politics with plan for simultaneous elections. Indian premier accused of seeking to centralise power and strengthen grip of BJP.”
India Today: “It’s about national security: Arun Jaitley on how 2019 elections were different from 2014. In an exclusive interview to India Today Magazine in April, Arun Jaitley said in 2014 the Lok Sabha election was about hope, but the 2019 elections were about national security.”
Nauru Parliamentary – August 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
The last parliamentary elections took place in 2016. Most candidates run as independents. Of the 19 MPs, 17 support the government and two are opposition. Parliament then elects the president. In 2016, President Baron Waqa was re-elected.
Tiny Nauru may only have the population of a single street in Beijing (around 13,000), but the country stands up to China, recognizing Taiwan. At a forum for Pacific nations that Nauru hosted in 2018, Waqa called the Chinese envoy “insolent” and a “bully” when the Chinese envoy attempted to interrupt the representative from Tuvalu, another tiny Pacific nation that also recognizes Taiwan. Waqa laterdoubled down, demanding that China apologize for its “arrogance.”
Updated August 25, 2019
Richard Ewart and Max Walden, ABC News (Australia): “Baron Waqa — the microstate’s 59-year-old President since 2013 — will fight to retain the top job. While Mr Waqa’s Government favours keeping Australia’s offshore processing centre open in Nauru, a change of Government could have major implications for Australian asylum policy.”
Calla Wahlquist, The Guardian: “Nauru’s president, Baron Waqa, has lost his seat in parliament. Election results from his electorate of Boe show that Waqa, who has been president since 2013, lost to Asterio Appi and Martin Hunt.”
New Zealand Local – October 12, 2019 and Parliamentary – by November 21, 2020 (likely to be earlier)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
New Zealand’s two main parties are the center-left Labour Party and center-right National Party. National won the most votes and seats in the 2017 elections, but not enough to form a government. Labour formed a coalition with New Zealand First, a populist party that has worked with both Labour and National in the past, backed by a confidence and supply agreement with the Green Party (Labour and New Zealand First combined have the same number of seats as National – 55). Labour leader Jacinda Ardern – a former DJ who is on the left wing of the party – became Prime Minister and is currently the world’s youngest female government.
Local elections in New Zealand have had low turnout for decades, but the local polls could serve as an interesting barometer ahead of next year’s parliamentary polls – which are due by November 2020 but could be called earlier – for which parties have already started campaigning.
Julia Talbot-Jones, The Conversation: “Voter turnout at New Zealand local elections keeps falling, but paying people to vote could backfire”
Tom McRae, Newshub: “Auckland mayoral candidate John Tamihere compared to Donald Trump over election promise”
Radio New Zealand: “National committing to ‘regulations bonfire’ if elected in 2020: The National Party plans to scrap 100 regulations and a number of the current government’s policies if voted into power next year.”
Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
A series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets on at least one occasion – has been taking place in Hong Kong all summer. The proximate cause was a controversial extradition bill, but even though the bill has been put on hold, protesters persist, calling for more democracy and free elections.
Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. The protest movement could boost the pro-democracy camp.
Katrina Trinko and Daniel Davis, Heritage Foundation’s Daily Signal: “‘We Are Facing One of the Biggest Authoritarian States’: A Hong Kong Politician Speaks Out” [Interview with Legislative Council member Alvin Yeung]
Anson Chan, The Economist: “While young people are at the vanguard of the protests, the disaffection with the current administration spans a very broad spectrum of the community, prompting unprecedented public protests and petitions by professionals in the legal, education, medical and social services sectors, business interests, civil servants, church leaders, the elderly and mothers of young children.”
Nathan Law Kwun-chung, The Economist: “So the summer of discontent has arrived at a dilemma. Protesters cannot retreat without promises of concrete reforms from the government, and the regime refuses to back down.”
Tami Abdollah, AP: “Twitter said it has suspended more than 200,000 accounts that it believes were part of a Chinese government influence campaign targeting the protest movement in Hong Kong. The company also said Monday it will ban ads from state-backed media companies, expanding a prohibition it first applied in 2017 to two Russian entities.”
Frida Ghitis, CNN: “Hong Kong protests send a message Americans can hear loud and clear”
Sri Lanka Presidential – December 7, 2019 and Parliamentary – February 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Sri Lanka is still feeling the aftershocks of a series of terrorist attacks over Easter 2019 and a 2018 political crisis in which President Maithripala Sirisena tried to dissolve parliament and remove Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe from office and replace him with former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was president from 2005 to 2015. Ultimately, Wickremesinghe was reinstated, but the crisis has deep roots and tensions remain high in Sri Lankan politics.
The two major parties are Sirisena’s center-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Wickremesinghe’s center-right United National Party. Rajapaksa left the SLPF in 2018 and now leads the populist Sri Lanka People’s Front/Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). In the last presidential elections, Rajapaksa surprisingly lost to Sirisena, who embarked on a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Rajapaksa had built up. Sirisena is eligible to run for a second term and could run again. His potential challengers include Wickremesinghe and one of Rajapaksa’s siblings (Rajapaksa is not eligible to run for president again due to term limits adopted during Sirisena’s presidency). Rajapaksa’s SLPP did well in local elections last year. Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice, and the upcoming elections could well determine whether it strengthens or deteriorates.
Marwaan Macan-Markar, Nikkei Asian Review: “Sri Lankan strongman eyes presidency in upcoming elections. Former leader Rajapaksa’s brother vows security after Easter bombings.”
Laksiri Fernando, The Daily FT (Sri Lanka): “The Presidential Election: Into anarchy or out of anarchy? Political determination for democratic reforms was weak from the beginning of the Wickremesinghe regime. Personal, ideological, and social/class cleavages emerged between the President and the Prime Minister.”
N. Sathiya Moorthy, MENAFN – Colombo Gazette: “Sri Lanka- What do the Tamils want? As with all post-war elections especially, the nation’s Tamil community remains confused – as much as what they want of the Sri Lankan State system as whom to vote for. Their political leadership(s) are divided and guilty, but neither seems to have touched them or the captive sections of their declining constituencies.”
Al Jazeera: “Sri Lankan general accused of war abuses appointed army chief. Shavendra Silva has denied allegations, but rights groups see his appointment as undermining reconciliation efforts.”
Thailand Local – March 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Constitutional Monarchy
Thailand’s local elections have been delayed since the military government took over in 2014. The March 24, 2019 parliamentary election nominally returned Thailand to civilian rule, although former junta chief Prayuth Chan-ocha became prime minister and the military still wields considerable power behind the scenes. Thailand’s Election Commission has requested a budget for the local elections, but ultimately the government decides the country’s budget, which is expected to be presented in January 2020. The local elections could then take place several months after that, possibly in March 2020.
Bangkok Post: “The Election Commission (EC) has requested a budget of up to 1.2 billion baht to finance local elections although it is unclear when they will be held….The polls were initially expected to go ahead towards the end of the year. However, they are now likely to be delayed.”
Chairith Yonpiam, Bangkok Post: “Local politics heating up: Big hitters jockeying for position ahead of 2020 local poll campaigns”
Michael Hart, World Politics Review: “Will an End to Military Rule Revive Peace Talks in Southern Thailand?”
Philippines Village Elections – May 11, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Political parties in the Philippines are weak, and politics tends to be based not on ideology but rather personality and dynasty (for instance, a survey in 2014 found that 70 percent of elected representatives were members of political dynasties). In 2016, Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider (although his daughter, Sara, now holds the mayorship of Davao, her father’s former job). Duterte has governed with an iron fist, waging a drug war that has resulted in thousands of extrajudicial killings, sparking an investigation by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity. The government has cracked down on critics, including elected officials and journalists. Duterte allies swept the 2019 midterm legislative and local elections. Despite some proposals to postpone the 2020 village and youth council elections, the Commission on Elections (Comelec) announced that the polls would take place on schedule, on May 11, 2020.
Ferdinand Patinio, Philippine News Agency: “Despite proposals to postpone the May 11, 2020 Barangay and Sangguniang Kabataan Elections (BSKE), the Commission on Elections (Comelec) on Tuesday released the calendar of activities for the polls.
Rappler: “By 2020 elections, Comelec [Commission on Elections] will be packed with Duterte appointees. The Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism points out the exit of seasoned poll commissioners means the appointment of newer ones who have limited experience running national automated elections.”
Burma Parliamentary – Expected late 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Burma, also called Myanmar, seemed to be moving toward democracy following the country’s first credible, relatively free elections in 2015, which swept Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) to power following decades of military dictatorship. Once held up by the global community as a paragon of moral authority for giving up her own freedom in the fight for democracy, Suu Kyi’s tenure as the country’s de facto leader has disappointed many. Burma still has hundreds of political prisoners, including many who were arrested after the NLD came to power. Ethnic conflicts continue between the dominant Burmans, who comprise roughly 60 percent of the population, and different minority groups. The crisis in Rakhine or Arakan State with the Muslim Rohingya, which some have called a genocide, has created 700,000 refugees in neighboring Bangladesh and 128,000 internally displaced people. During by-elections in 2018, the NLD won seven out of 13 seats, but lost five out of six in non-Burman areas.
Editorial Board, Washington Post: “For Myanmar, too much impunity and too little accountability”
Moe Moe, The Irrawaddy: “Myanmar’s ruling National League for Democracy (NLD), at its Central Executive Committee meeting on Sunday, decided to suspend U Myo Yan Naung Thein, the party’s chief research officer, for overstepping his authority, party spokesperson Dr. Myo Nyunt told reporters.”
Rishi Iyengar, CNN: “For the fourth time in less than a year, Facebook has removed dozens of accounts, pages and groups linked to the Myanmar military, saying they engaged in suspicious activity and used fake profiles.”
Yuichi Nitta, Nikkei Asian Review: “Myanmar’s Suu Kyi furious about corruption ahead of elections: Ruling NLD struggles in rural regions with little to show in reforms”
Indonesia Regional – September 23, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Giora Eliraz, The Diplomat: “The Future of Indonesia’s ‘Millennials Party’: Though the PSI failed to win a seat in parliament, the ‘millennials party’ isn’t going anywhere.”
Malaysia Local – TBD and General – by 2022
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
In last year’s parliamentary elections, Mahathir Mohamed led his Pakatan Haratan (Alliance of Hope) party to a surprise victory over the Barisan Nasional coalition and its primary member, United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which had been in power since Malaysia’s 1957 independence. In 1976, the government abolished local elections and instituted the practice of appointing the members of the country’s 146 local councils. Malaysia is currently debating whether to hold local elections.
Mohamed Baysir, New Straits Times: “George Town, which was the first local authority to conduct local government elections in 1857, has been touted to be the place for the rebirth of municipal elections in the country. The state capital is among several local authorities shortlisted to hold the third tier polls once the proposal is approved by the cabinet.”
Past Elections
Papua New Guinea Local – July 20-25, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Papua New Guinea’s politics are chaotic, and no single party has ever commanded a majority in parliament. Coalitions shift frequently. James Marape became prime minister in May 2018 when former prime minister Peter O’Neill lost a no-confidence vote after being in power for eight years. It is unclear whether Marape will effectively address Papua New Guinea’s continuing problems of corruption and mismanagement of the economy. For the local elections, voters will elect representatives to 29 urban and 302 rural local level government assemblies.
Radio New Zealand: “Supporters of two rival members of the local council clashed violently last week in Kundiawa over the position of deputy provincial governor, following local level government elections. The resulting violence left several people seriously injured and caused destruction of numerous properties in town.”
Cambodia General – July 29, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
AP: “Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen has filed a defamation lawsuit in French court against his longtime political enemy Sam Rainsy, a lawyer for the Southeast Asian leader said Tuesday.”
Asia This Week – August 23, 2019
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Last Updated: September 10, 2019 by 21votes
August 23, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Asia and the Pacific on Fridays. Click the map pins.
India, Haryana State and Maharashtra State Assemblies – October 2019 or November 2019 and Jharkhand State Assembly – November 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
India has 29 states and seven union territories. Indian states are big – Maharashtra, whose capital is Mumbai, has 112 million people, Haryana 25 million, and Jharkhand 32 million. Coalitions headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently control all three state legislatures. The BJP won a massive victory in elections to the Lok Sabha, India’s national parliament, earlier this year, giving it a second term in power as the majority party able to govern without coalition partners, in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – did well in a series of state elections late last year but is reeling from the whiplash of defeat in the Lok Sabha polls. The state elections are happening in the context of a renewed push from Modi to institute “one nation, one election” – a proposal to hold state elections at the same time as elections to the Lok Sabha.
Amy Kazmin, Financial Times: “Modi shakes up politics with plan for simultaneous elections. Indian premier accused of seeking to centralise power and strengthen grip of BJP.”
India Today: “It’s about national security: Arun Jaitley on how 2019 elections were different from 2014. In an exclusive interview to India Today Magazine in April, Arun Jaitley said in 2014 the Lok Sabha election was about hope, but the 2019 elections were about national security.”
Nauru Parliamentary – August 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
The last parliamentary elections took place in 2016. Most candidates run as independents. Of the 19 MPs, 17 support the government and two are opposition. Parliament then elects the president. In 2016, President Baron Waqa was re-elected.
Tiny Nauru may only have the population of a single street in Beijing (around 13,000), but the country stands up to China, recognizing Taiwan. At a forum for Pacific nations that Nauru hosted in 2018, Waqa called the Chinese envoy “insolent” and a “bully” when the Chinese envoy attempted to interrupt the representative from Tuvalu, another tiny Pacific nation that also recognizes Taiwan. Waqa laterdoubled down, demanding that China apologize for its “arrogance.”
New Zealand Local – October 12, 2019 and Parliamentary – by November 21, 2020 (likely to be earlier)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
New Zealand’s two main parties are the center-left Labour Party and center-right National Party. National won the most votes and seats in the 2017 elections, but not enough to form a government. Labour formed a coalition with New Zealand First, a populist party that has worked with both Labour and National in the past, backed by a confidence and supply agreement with the Green Party (Labour and New Zealand First combined have the same number of seats as National – 55). Labour leader Jacinda Ardern – a former DJ who is on the left wing of the party – became Prime Minister and is currently the world’s youngest female government.
Local elections in New Zealand have had low turnout for decades, but the local polls could serve as an interesting barometer ahead of next year’s parliamentary polls – which are due by November 2020 but could be called earlier – for which parties have already started campaigning.
Sri Lanka Presidential – December 7, 2019 and Parliamentary – February 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Sri Lanka is still feeling the aftershocks of a series of terrorist attacks over Easter 2019 and a 2018 political crisis in which President Maithripala Sirisena tried to dissolve parliament and remove Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe from office and replace him with former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was president from 2005 to 2015. Ultimately, Wickremesinghe was reinstated, but the crisis has deep roots and tensions remain high in Sri Lankan politics.
The two major parties are Sirisena’s center-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Wickremesinghe’s center-right United National Party. Rajapaksa left the SLPF in 2018 and now leads the populist Sri Lanka People’s Front/Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). In the last presidential elections, Rajapaksa surprisingly lost to Sirisena, who embarked on a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Rajapaksa had built up. Sirisena is eligible to run for a second term and could run again. His potential challengers include Wickremesinghe and one of Rajapaksa’s siblings (Rajapaksa is not eligible to run for president again due to term limits adopted during Sirisena’s presidency). Rajapaksa’s SLPP did well in local elections last year. Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice, and the upcoming elections could well determine whether it strengthens or deteriorates.
Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
A series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets on at least one occasion – has been taking place in Hong Kong all summer. The proximate cause was a controversial extradition bill, but even though the bill has been put on hold, protesters persist, calling for more democracy and free elections.
Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. The protest movement could boost the pro-democracy camp.
Thailand Local - March 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Constitutional Monarchy
Thailand’s local elections have been delayed since the military government took over in 2014. The March 24, 2019 parliamentary election nominally returned Thailand to civilian rule, although former junta chief Prayuth Chan-ocha became prime minister and the military still wields considerable power behind the scenes. Thailand’s Election Commission has requested a budget for the local elections, but ultimately the government decides the country’s budget, which is expected to be presented in January 2020. The local elections could then take place several months after that, possibly in March 2020.
Philippines Village Elections – May 11, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Political parties in the Philippines are weak, and politics tends to be based not on ideology but rather personality and dynasty (for instance, a survey in 2014 found that 70 percent of elected representatives were members of political dynasties). In 2016, Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider (although his daughter, Sara, now holds the mayorship of Davao, her father’s former job). Duterte has governed with an iron fist, waging a drug war that has resulted in thousands of extrajudicial killings, sparking an investigation by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity. The government has cracked down on critics, including elected officials and journalists. Duterte allies swept the 2019 midterm legislative and local elections. Despite some proposals to postpone the 2020 village and youth council elections, the Commission on Elections (Comelec) announced that the polls would take place on schedule, on May 11, 2020.
Burma Parliamentary – Expected late 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Burma, also called Myanmar, seemed to be moving toward democracy following the country’s first credible, relatively free elections in 2015, which swept Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) to power following decades of military dictatorship. Once held up by the global community as a paragon of moral authority for giving up her own freedom in the fight for democracy, Suu Kyi’s tenure as the country’s de facto leader has disappointed many. Burma still has hundreds of political prisoners, including many who were arrested after the NLD came to power. Ethnic conflicts continue between the dominant Burmans, who comprise roughly 60 percent of the population, and different minority groups. The crisis in Rakhine or Arakan State with the Muslim Rohingya, which some have called a genocide, has created 700,000 refugees in neighboring Bangladesh and 128,000 internally displaced people. During by-elections in 2018, the NLD won seven out of 13 seats, but lost five out of six in non-Burman areas.
Indonesia Regional – September 23, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Malaysia Local – TBD and General – by 2022
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
In last year’s parliamentary elections, Mahathir Mohamed led his Pakatan Haratan (Alliance of Hope) party to a surprise victory over the Barisan Nasional coalition and its primary member, United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which had been in power since Malaysia’s 1957 independence. In 1976, the government abolished local elections and instituted the practice of appointing the members of the country’s 146 local councils. Malaysia is currently debating whether to hold local elections.
Papua New Guinea Local – July 20-25, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Papua New Guinea’s politics are chaotic, and no single party has ever commanded a majority in parliament. Coalitions shift frequently. James Marape became prime minister in May 2018 when former prime minister Peter O’Neill lost a no-confidence vote after being in power for eight years. It is unclear whether Marape will effectively address Papua New Guinea’s continuing problems of corruption and mismanagement of the economy. For the local elections, voters will elect representatives to 29 urban and 302 rural local level government assemblies.
Cambodia General – July 29, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Upcoming Elections
India, Haryana State and Maharashtra State Assemblies – October 2019 or November 2019 and Jharkhand State Assembly – November 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
India has 29 states and seven union territories. Indian states are big – Maharashtra, whose capital is Mumbai, has 112 million people, Haryana 25 million, and Jharkhand 32 million. Coalitions headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently control all three state legislatures. The BJP won a massive victory in elections to the Lok Sabha, India’s national parliament, earlier this year, giving it a second term in power as the majority party able to govern without coalition partners, in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – did well in a series of state elections late last year but is reeling from the whiplash of defeat in the Lok Sabha polls. The state elections are happening in the context of a renewed push from Modi to institute “one nation, one election” – a proposal to hold state elections at the same time as elections to the Lok Sabha.
Amy Kazmin, Financial Times: “Modi shakes up politics with plan for simultaneous elections. Indian premier accused of seeking to centralise power and strengthen grip of BJP.”
India Today: “It’s about national security: Arun Jaitley on how 2019 elections were different from 2014. In an exclusive interview to India Today Magazine in April, Arun Jaitley said in 2014 the Lok Sabha election was about hope, but the 2019 elections were about national security.”
Nauru Parliamentary – August 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
The last parliamentary elections took place in 2016. Most candidates run as independents. Of the 19 MPs, 17 support the government and two are opposition. Parliament then elects the president. In 2016, President Baron Waqa was re-elected.
Tiny Nauru may only have the population of a single street in Beijing (around 13,000), but the country stands up to China, recognizing Taiwan. At a forum for Pacific nations that Nauru hosted in 2018, Waqa called the Chinese envoy “insolent” and a “bully” when the Chinese envoy attempted to interrupt the representative from Tuvalu, another tiny Pacific nation that also recognizes Taiwan. Waqa laterdoubled down, demanding that China apologize for its “arrogance.”
Updated August 25, 2019
Richard Ewart and Max Walden, ABC News (Australia): “Baron Waqa — the microstate’s 59-year-old President since 2013 — will fight to retain the top job. While Mr Waqa’s Government favours keeping Australia’s offshore processing centre open in Nauru, a change of Government could have major implications for Australian asylum policy.”
Calla Wahlquist, The Guardian: “Nauru’s president, Baron Waqa, has lost his seat in parliament. Election results from his electorate of Boe show that Waqa, who has been president since 2013, lost to Asterio Appi and Martin Hunt.”
New Zealand Local – October 12, 2019 and Parliamentary – by November 21, 2020 (likely to be earlier)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
New Zealand’s two main parties are the center-left Labour Party and center-right National Party. National won the most votes and seats in the 2017 elections, but not enough to form a government. Labour formed a coalition with New Zealand First, a populist party that has worked with both Labour and National in the past, backed by a confidence and supply agreement with the Green Party (Labour and New Zealand First combined have the same number of seats as National – 55). Labour leader Jacinda Ardern – a former DJ who is on the left wing of the party – became Prime Minister and is currently the world’s youngest female government.
Local elections in New Zealand have had low turnout for decades, but the local polls could serve as an interesting barometer ahead of next year’s parliamentary polls – which are due by November 2020 but could be called earlier – for which parties have already started campaigning.
Julia Talbot-Jones, The Conversation: “Voter turnout at New Zealand local elections keeps falling, but paying people to vote could backfire”
Tom McRae, Newshub: “Auckland mayoral candidate John Tamihere compared to Donald Trump over election promise”
Radio New Zealand: “National committing to ‘regulations bonfire’ if elected in 2020: The National Party plans to scrap 100 regulations and a number of the current government’s policies if voted into power next year.”
Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
A series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets on at least one occasion – has been taking place in Hong Kong all summer. The proximate cause was a controversial extradition bill, but even though the bill has been put on hold, protesters persist, calling for more democracy and free elections.
Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. The protest movement could boost the pro-democracy camp.
Katrina Trinko and Daniel Davis, Heritage Foundation’s Daily Signal: “‘We Are Facing One of the Biggest Authoritarian States’: A Hong Kong Politician Speaks Out” [Interview with Legislative Council member Alvin Yeung]
Anson Chan, The Economist: “While young people are at the vanguard of the protests, the disaffection with the current administration spans a very broad spectrum of the community, prompting unprecedented public protests and petitions by professionals in the legal, education, medical and social services sectors, business interests, civil servants, church leaders, the elderly and mothers of young children.”
Nathan Law Kwun-chung, The Economist: “So the summer of discontent has arrived at a dilemma. Protesters cannot retreat without promises of concrete reforms from the government, and the regime refuses to back down.”
Tami Abdollah, AP: “Twitter said it has suspended more than 200,000 accounts that it believes were part of a Chinese government influence campaign targeting the protest movement in Hong Kong. The company also said Monday it will ban ads from state-backed media companies, expanding a prohibition it first applied in 2017 to two Russian entities.”
Frida Ghitis, CNN: “Hong Kong protests send a message Americans can hear loud and clear”
Sri Lanka Presidential – December 7, 2019 and Parliamentary – February 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Sri Lanka is still feeling the aftershocks of a series of terrorist attacks over Easter 2019 and a 2018 political crisis in which President Maithripala Sirisena tried to dissolve parliament and remove Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe from office and replace him with former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was president from 2005 to 2015. Ultimately, Wickremesinghe was reinstated, but the crisis has deep roots and tensions remain high in Sri Lankan politics.
The two major parties are Sirisena’s center-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Wickremesinghe’s center-right United National Party. Rajapaksa left the SLPF in 2018 and now leads the populist Sri Lanka People’s Front/Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). In the last presidential elections, Rajapaksa surprisingly lost to Sirisena, who embarked on a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Rajapaksa had built up. Sirisena is eligible to run for a second term and could run again. His potential challengers include Wickremesinghe and one of Rajapaksa’s siblings (Rajapaksa is not eligible to run for president again due to term limits adopted during Sirisena’s presidency). Rajapaksa’s SLPP did well in local elections last year. Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice, and the upcoming elections could well determine whether it strengthens or deteriorates.
Marwaan Macan-Markar, Nikkei Asian Review: “Sri Lankan strongman eyes presidency in upcoming elections. Former leader Rajapaksa’s brother vows security after Easter bombings.”
Laksiri Fernando, The Daily FT (Sri Lanka): “The Presidential Election: Into anarchy or out of anarchy? Political determination for democratic reforms was weak from the beginning of the Wickremesinghe regime. Personal, ideological, and social/class cleavages emerged between the President and the Prime Minister.”
N. Sathiya Moorthy, MENAFN – Colombo Gazette: “Sri Lanka- What do the Tamils want? As with all post-war elections especially, the nation’s Tamil community remains confused – as much as what they want of the Sri Lankan State system as whom to vote for. Their political leadership(s) are divided and guilty, but neither seems to have touched them or the captive sections of their declining constituencies.”
Al Jazeera: “Sri Lankan general accused of war abuses appointed army chief. Shavendra Silva has denied allegations, but rights groups see his appointment as undermining reconciliation efforts.”
Thailand Local – March 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Constitutional Monarchy
Thailand’s local elections have been delayed since the military government took over in 2014. The March 24, 2019 parliamentary election nominally returned Thailand to civilian rule, although former junta chief Prayuth Chan-ocha became prime minister and the military still wields considerable power behind the scenes. Thailand’s Election Commission has requested a budget for the local elections, but ultimately the government decides the country’s budget, which is expected to be presented in January 2020. The local elections could then take place several months after that, possibly in March 2020.
Bangkok Post: “The Election Commission (EC) has requested a budget of up to 1.2 billion baht to finance local elections although it is unclear when they will be held….The polls were initially expected to go ahead towards the end of the year. However, they are now likely to be delayed.”
Chairith Yonpiam, Bangkok Post: “Local politics heating up: Big hitters jockeying for position ahead of 2020 local poll campaigns”
Michael Hart, World Politics Review: “Will an End to Military Rule Revive Peace Talks in Southern Thailand?”
Philippines Village Elections – May 11, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Political parties in the Philippines are weak, and politics tends to be based not on ideology but rather personality and dynasty (for instance, a survey in 2014 found that 70 percent of elected representatives were members of political dynasties). In 2016, Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider (although his daughter, Sara, now holds the mayorship of Davao, her father’s former job). Duterte has governed with an iron fist, waging a drug war that has resulted in thousands of extrajudicial killings, sparking an investigation by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity. The government has cracked down on critics, including elected officials and journalists. Duterte allies swept the 2019 midterm legislative and local elections. Despite some proposals to postpone the 2020 village and youth council elections, the Commission on Elections (Comelec) announced that the polls would take place on schedule, on May 11, 2020.
Ferdinand Patinio, Philippine News Agency: “Despite proposals to postpone the May 11, 2020 Barangay and Sangguniang Kabataan Elections (BSKE), the Commission on Elections (Comelec) on Tuesday released the calendar of activities for the polls.
Rappler: “By 2020 elections, Comelec [Commission on Elections] will be packed with Duterte appointees. The Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism points out the exit of seasoned poll commissioners means the appointment of newer ones who have limited experience running national automated elections.”
Burma Parliamentary – Expected late 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Burma, also called Myanmar, seemed to be moving toward democracy following the country’s first credible, relatively free elections in 2015, which swept Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) to power following decades of military dictatorship. Once held up by the global community as a paragon of moral authority for giving up her own freedom in the fight for democracy, Suu Kyi’s tenure as the country’s de facto leader has disappointed many. Burma still has hundreds of political prisoners, including many who were arrested after the NLD came to power. Ethnic conflicts continue between the dominant Burmans, who comprise roughly 60 percent of the population, and different minority groups. The crisis in Rakhine or Arakan State with the Muslim Rohingya, which some have called a genocide, has created 700,000 refugees in neighboring Bangladesh and 128,000 internally displaced people. During by-elections in 2018, the NLD won seven out of 13 seats, but lost five out of six in non-Burman areas.
Editorial Board, Washington Post: “For Myanmar, too much impunity and too little accountability”
Moe Moe, The Irrawaddy: “Myanmar’s ruling National League for Democracy (NLD), at its Central Executive Committee meeting on Sunday, decided to suspend U Myo Yan Naung Thein, the party’s chief research officer, for overstepping his authority, party spokesperson Dr. Myo Nyunt told reporters.”
Rishi Iyengar, CNN: “For the fourth time in less than a year, Facebook has removed dozens of accounts, pages and groups linked to the Myanmar military, saying they engaged in suspicious activity and used fake profiles.”
Yuichi Nitta, Nikkei Asian Review: “Myanmar’s Suu Kyi furious about corruption ahead of elections: Ruling NLD struggles in rural regions with little to show in reforms”
Indonesia Regional – September 23, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Giora Eliraz, The Diplomat: “The Future of Indonesia’s ‘Millennials Party’: Though the PSI failed to win a seat in parliament, the ‘millennials party’ isn’t going anywhere.”
Malaysia Local – TBD and General – by 2022
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
In last year’s parliamentary elections, Mahathir Mohamed led his Pakatan Haratan (Alliance of Hope) party to a surprise victory over the Barisan Nasional coalition and its primary member, United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which had been in power since Malaysia’s 1957 independence. In 1976, the government abolished local elections and instituted the practice of appointing the members of the country’s 146 local councils. Malaysia is currently debating whether to hold local elections.
Mohamed Baysir, New Straits Times: “George Town, which was the first local authority to conduct local government elections in 1857, has been touted to be the place for the rebirth of municipal elections in the country. The state capital is among several local authorities shortlisted to hold the third tier polls once the proposal is approved by the cabinet.”
Past Elections
Papua New Guinea Local – July 20-25, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Papua New Guinea’s politics are chaotic, and no single party has ever commanded a majority in parliament. Coalitions shift frequently. James Marape became prime minister in May 2018 when former prime minister Peter O’Neill lost a no-confidence vote after being in power for eight years. It is unclear whether Marape will effectively address Papua New Guinea’s continuing problems of corruption and mismanagement of the economy. For the local elections, voters will elect representatives to 29 urban and 302 rural local level government assemblies.
Radio New Zealand: “Supporters of two rival members of the local council clashed violently last week in Kundiawa over the position of deputy provincial governor, following local level government elections. The resulting violence left several people seriously injured and caused destruction of numerous properties in town.”
Cambodia General – July 29, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
AP: “Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen has filed a defamation lawsuit in French court against his longtime political enemy Sam Rainsy, a lawyer for the Southeast Asian leader said Tuesday.”
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 2015 Independence Day address. Photo credit: Flickr/Narendra Modi (CC BY-SA 2.0)
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The Year Ahead: Asia
India, Maharashtra and Haryana states (October); Tuvalu parliamentary (September 9); New Zealand local (October 12); Hong Kong local (November 24); Marshall Islands legislative (November); India Jharkhand State (November); India Jammu and Kashmir (expected late 2019); Kiribati legislative (December); Sri Lanka presidential (December 7); Nepal by-elections (December 30); Taiwan presidential and legislative (January 11); Thailand local (possibly in March – tentative and likely to change); Kiribati presidential (March); South Korea parliamentary (April 15); Niue parliamentary (May); Philippines village and youth council (May 11); Mongolia parliamentary (June)
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Category: This Week Tags: Burma, Cambodia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nauru, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand