Eurasia This Week – August 22, 2019

August 22, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Eurasia on Thursdays. Click the map pins.

Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation

Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.

In last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.

This year, a number of genuine opposition figures seek to run for local office, but authorities are blocking their access to the ballot. In response, citizens are holding a series of protests, resulting in a harsh crackdown, including the detention of prominent opposition figures such as Alexei Navalny.

Moldova Local – October 20, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.

The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.

Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary – October 2020

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Kyrgyzstan began a halting transition to democracy following the Tulip Revolution of 2005, and following another revolution in 2010, the country switched to a parliamentary system and presidents were restricted to one term in office, in an effort to curtail presidential power and authoritarian backsliding. The current president, Sooronbay Jeenbekov, was elected in 2017, leading to Kyrgyzstan’s first peaceful transfer of power between two elected presidents. Jeenbekov had been backed by his predecessor, Almazbek Atambayev, but relations between the two have since soured. Atambayev staged a series of protests. The political climate remains tense ahead of next year’s parliamentary polls.

Georgia Parliamentary – October 2020

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

Georgia holds competitive but imperfect elections. The eccentric oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili runs the show from behind the scenes, despite holding no official office. Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakasvili’s pro-European, pro-NATO United National Movement. Ivanishvili’s candidate, Salome Zurabishvili, won last year’s disputed presidential election. Georgian Dream did well in by-elections in May.

In June, a series of protests broke out over Russia, which occupies 20 percent of Georgia’s territory. The government’s brutal response could harm the coalition ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.

Ukraine Snap Parliamentary – July 21, 2019 (following presidential elections earlier this year)

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

Actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate largely centers on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.

Zelensky’s Servant of the People party previously did not have any seats in the Rada, but swept the elections to win an unprecedented parliamentary majority. More than half of the MPs are new.

Belarus Legislative – November 7 (upper house, indirect) and 17, 2019 (lower house, direct) and Presidential – August 30, 2020 (tentative)

Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)

Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.

Upcoming Elections
Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation

Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.

In last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.

This year, a number of genuine opposition figures seek to run for local office, but authorities are blocking their access to the ballot. In response, citizens are holding a series of protests, resulting in a harsh crackdown, including the detention of prominent opposition figures such as Alexei Navalny.

Lucian Kim, RFE/RL: “‘The Government Is Very Afraid’: Meet Moscow’s New Opposition Leader, Lyubov Sobol”

Fred Weir, Christian Science Monitor: “Fury at elections snub brings Moscow’s professionals back to politics: Moscow’s urban professionals for many years have been willing to surrender political activism in exchange for material gains. But the protests roiling the city in recent weeks show a political reawakening.

World Politics Review: “Can Russia’s Opposition Capitalize on the Momentum of Election Protests?….In an email interview with WPR, Anna Arutunyan, senior analyst for Russia at International Crisis Group, explains what it will take for the recent protests in Moscow to evolve into a broader challenge to President Vladimir Putin’s legitimacy.”

Robert Coalson, RFE/RL: “Hiding In Plain Sight: United Russia’s Bid To Distance Itself From Moscow Polls Falls Flat”

Belarus Legislative – November 7 (upper house, indirect) and 17, 2019 (lower house, direct) and Presidential – August 30, 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)

Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.

Todd Prince, RFE/RL: “Exclusive: Belarus’s Lukashenka, Weary Of Russia Union, Seeks To Buy U.S. Crude”

Moldova Local – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.

The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.

RFE/RL: “Moldovan PM Sets Washington Trip In Bid To Reassure On Reform Process”

Anna Nemtsova, The Daily Beast: “By Pushing Out Filthy Rich Vladimir Plahotniuc, Moldova Takes the Lead in Ending the Era of the Oligarchs: All over the former Soviet Union, including Russia, popular anger at the power of oligarchs is growing, and Moldova’s new prime minister, Maia Sandu, has acted on it.”

Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Kyrgyzstan began a halting transition to democracy following the Tulip Revolution of 2005, and following another revolution in 2010, the country switched to a parliamentary system and presidents were restricted to one term in office, in an effort to curtail presidential power and authoritarian backsliding. The current president, Sooronbay Jeenbekov, was elected in 2017, leading to Kyrgyzstan’s first peaceful transfer of power between two elected presidents. Jeenbekov had been backed by his predecessor, Almazbek Atambayev, but relations between the two have since soured. Atambayev staged a series of protests. The political climate remains tense ahead of next year’s parliamentary polls.

Kamila Eshaliyeva, openDemocracy: “What is happening in Kyrgyzstan? With the arrest of a powerful former president, Kyrgyzstan’s political scene prepares to ‘clean house’ once again.”

Temur Umarov, The Diplomat: “The Failure of Atambayev’s Planned Power Transition: Unlike in Russia and Kazakhstan, an effort in Kyrgyzstan to carefully orchestrate the transition of power backfired.”

Chris Rickleton, Eurasianet: “Kyrgyzstan: Pressured ex-candidate says he wants no part of power….A popular former presidential candidate whose return to Kyrgyzstan has complicated a highly brittle political scene appears convinced that his self-preservation demands a career change.”

Catherine Putz, The Diplomat: “Aksana Ismailbekova on Patronage Politics in Kyrgyzstan: What lays beneath the surface of Kyrgyzstan’s dramatic political scene?”

Georgia Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

Georgia holds competitive but imperfect elections. The eccentric oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili runs the show from behind the scenes, despite holding no official office. Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakasvili’s pro-European, pro-NATO United National Movement. Ivanishvili’s candidate, Salome Zurabishvili, won last year’s disputed presidential election. Georgian Dream did well in by-elections in May.

In June, a series of protests broke out over Russia, which occupies 20 percent of Georgia’s territory. The government’s brutal response could harm the coalition ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.

Gvantsa Doluashvili, JAMnews: “‘We played football with Ossetians in that field’ a report from a divided village….On August 7, Russian troops resumed the process of the so-called “borderisation” of the Georgian-Ossetian conflict zone, between the territories controlled by Tbilisi and Tskhinvali.”

Georgi Kandelaki, New Europe: “Russia’s influence in Georgia has grown since the 2008 war”

JAMnews: “The fall and rise of Georgia’s most watched TV channel – Rustavi 2: Rustavi 2 has been around almost as long as independent Georgia – and its history is just as complicated

Past Elections
Ukraine Snap Parliamentary – July 21, 2019 (following presidential elections earlier this year)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

Actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate largely centers on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.

Zelensky’s Servant of the People party previously did not have any seats in the Rada, but swept the elections to win an unprecedented parliamentary majority. More than half of the MPs are new.

Volodymyr Verbyany and Alexander Sazonov, Bloomberg: “Ukraine’s Ex-Comedian President Is Taking on Its Richest Man”

Andrew Wilson, New Eastern Europe: “Is Ukraine the new Georgia?…Without getting too Caucasian and taking about mesisxleoba (‘blood revenge’), Ukraine after Poroshenko may be following the same formula as Georgia after Saakashvili: personalised and polarised politics, and the permanent vendetta between the two sides.”

Anthony J. Constantini, Washington Examiner: “Spare a thought for Ukraine on its Independence Day”

The Year Ahead: Eurasia
Ukraine snap parliamentary (July 21); Russia local (September 8); Moldova local (October 20); Belarus parliamentary (November 17); Uzbekistan parliamentary (December 19); Azerbaijan local (December 27); Tajikistan parliamentary (March)

 

A polling station in Chisinau during Moldova’s 2016 presidential runoff. Photo credit: Flickr/OSCE Parliamentary Assembly (CC BY-SA 2.0)

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