Upcoming Elections
Bolivia General – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates.
Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS) currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.
Daniel Schweimler, Al Jazeera: “Bolivia: Opposition rallies against president’s re-election bid. The opposition says Morales should respect the results of his own referendum.”
Updated August 26, 2019
Holly K. Sonneland, AS/COA: “Poll Tracker: Bolivia’s 2019 Presidential Race”
Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
The election will be competitive, and some polls have shown that the center-right Conservatives would beat incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s center-left Liberals if the election were held today. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.
Roberto Rocha, CBC: “What 35,000 political ads on Facebook reveal about Canada’s election-year message battle: Groups advertising on Facebook target Canadians with messages on pipelines, climate change.”
Jason Kirby, Financial Times: “Canadian ethics report puts Justin Trudeau back on defensive ahead of election. PM fights to keep flare-up in conflict-of-interest case from harming bid for second term.”
Ashifa Kassam, The Guardian: “Justin Trudeau: the rise and fall of a political brand: Thanks to his clever use of social media, he was dubbed the first prime minister of the Instagram age – but after four years in power, cracks in his image have started to show.”
David Moscrop, Washington Post: “Climate change isn’t a ‘political’ issue. Someone tell Canada’s election agency.”
Tom McMahon, TheTyee: “Why Environmental Groups’ Attack on Elections Canada Is Wrong, and Dangerous. Parliament passed third party spending laws to curb the influence of big money in campaigns. Do enviros want to end that?”
John Paul Tasker, CBC: “60 days out from a federal election, lawn signs are starting to appear”
Steve Lambert, Global News Canada: “Attack ads on simmer: Manitoba election campaign more about issues than scandal”
Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 (Primaries August 11, 2019) and Provincial – Throughout the year (next up: Santa Cruz on August 11, 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
On the presidential front: Incumbent Mauricio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.
In the primaries on August 11, 2019, Fernández and Kirchner won an unexpectedly high 47 percent of the vote, compared with Macri’s 33 percent.
Patricio Provitina, Global Americans: “Argentina’s primary election results: Furthering political polarization and economic instability”
Eliana Raszewski and Cassandra Garrison, Reuters: “Argentine presidential [front-runner] Alberto Fernandez said on Thursday there was ‘no possibility’ the country would default on its debt if he were elected in October, but that the government would have to negotiate new terms with creditors due to the weak economy.”
Marcelo J. García, New York Times: “From a distance, our political story this year seems simple: Good pro-market guy loses, bad guy wins and populism comes back. It is not….Unlike the leaders who have recently been elected in Latin America, Mr. Fernández is a moderate. But he will face an uphill battle to remain that way.”
Lucas Robinson, Buenos Aires Times: “Alberto Fernández to break with Macri’s approach to Venezuela crisis, if elected. Presidential frontrunner says he would break with Lima Group policy and prioritise dialogue in push to turn around crisis-stricken nation.”
Kenneth Rapoza, Forbes: “Why 75% Of Argentina Doesn’t Care About Candidate’s Corruption Or Honesty”
Updated August 25, 2019
John Quigley, Bloomberg: “Thousands March in Argentina in Support of Macri’s Re-Election”
Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections.
Silvia Higuera, University of Texas at Austin’s Knight Center for Journalism in the Americas: “Colombian media team up to fact-check regional elections through RedCheq network…. As in the presidential elections, regional campaigns may be affected by the spread of false information. For that reason, Colombiacheck, the Colombian site dedicated to data verification, began to train journalists in the region ahead of the Aug. 14 launch of the National Network of Checkers (RedCheq).”
Uruguay General – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Nicknamed the “Switzerland of South America,” Uruguay is wealthier than the its neighbors and politically neutral. The three major parties are the center-left and social democratic Frente Amplio (Broad Front) coalition, the center-right National Party (PN), and the liberal Colorado Party (PC). FA holds a razor-thin majority in the General Assembly, with 16 out of 31 Senate seats and 50 out of 99 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. It has had a majority in the General Assembly and held the presidency since 2005. President Tabaré Vázquez, who was elected in 2014 and had also been president from 2005 to 2010, is not able to run this year because the constitution does not allow consecutive terms. Corruption allegations and slow economic growth could hurt FA’s chances in these elections. During the June 30, 2019 primaries – in which voters also express a preferred party – FA received only 23.6 percent of the vote, with PN winning 41.6 and PC picking up 16.8.
AP: “A biopsy has confirmed that Uruguayan President Tabaré Vázquez has lung cancer, the presidency said in a statement on Friday. The statement said that the treatment will be determined by ongoing tests and that Vázquez ‘is in excellent shape.’”
Haiti Local and Partial Parliamentary (one third of the Senate and the entire lower house) – Due October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Haiti is in a political crisis. Political chaos related to allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. A commission found that the election had indeed been fraudulent, and ordered a re-reun, which had only 18 percent turnout. President Moïse Jovenel was elected with 56 percent of ballots cast. The opposition alleged fraud once again, but an election tribunal conducted an investigation and certified the results. Violent protesters have demanded the president’s ouster. The 2015-2016 parliamentary elections were also marred by significant fraud. The country is currently without a government as opposition lawmakers have blocked multiple attempts to ratify a new prime minister.
Sandra Lemaire and Renan Toussaint, VOA: “Haiti’s President Jovenel Moise has survived an impeachment vote in parliament, ending a weekslong push by opposition parties to unseat him over corruption and other criminal allegations.”
Guyana Snap Parliamentary – November 2019 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil. In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation has delayed the process. Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese.
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Orlando Sentinel: “Tiny Guyana could spark freedom in Latin America | Commentary”
Starbroek News: “The opposition PPP today [August 23] accused GECOM [Guyana’s Elections Commission] of procrastinating as it is still to make a decision on the fate of the current house-to-house registration and a date for general elections.”
Trinidad and Tobago Local – November or December 2019 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
The two major parties are Prime Minister Keith Rowley’s People’s National Movement (PNM), which tends to be supported by Afro-Trinidadians and returned to power after winning the 2015 elections. The People’s Partnership (PP) coalition, whose main member the United National Congress (UNC) is mostly supported by Indo-Trinidadians, governed from 2010 to 2015, with leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar serving as Trinidad and Tobago’s first female prime minister. She currently serves as the country’s first female leader of the opposition. The two major parties fall largely, but not exclusively, along ethnic lines. Roughly 40 percent of citizens are of Indian descent and 40 percent are of African descent, with the remaining 20 percent encompassing a broad spectrum of ethnic heritages. However, citizens have a strong sense of national pride and national identity as Trinidadians and Tobagonians. The next parliamentary elections are due by September 2020, but could happen earlier.
Shaliza Hassanali, The Guardian (Trinidad and Tobago): “Local Government elections are expected to be held within the next three months— between late November and early December of this year.The proposed date was given by Rural Development and Local Government Minister Kazim Hosein in a telephone interview with Guardian Media on Wednesday [August 21].”
Venezuela Legislative – December 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Venezuela is currently in a political crisis following disputed presidential elections in May 2018. Incumbent Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez’s protege, was declared the winner, but the elections were widely denounced as illegitimate and the opposition mostly boycotted the polls. Because Venezuela’s constitution stipulates that the leader of the National Assembly (Venezuela’s only institution with a modicum of democratic legitimacy) becomes interim president if the office is vacant, many of the world’s free democracies recognized Juan Guaidó as interim president until the country holds new elections. Maduro continues to cling to power and his forces are violently cracking down on the opposition. The regime has deployed death squads. However, the opposition perseveres. National Assembly elections are not due until December 2020, but Maduro has threatened to hold early elections, which would likely be neither free nor fair and would deprive the opposition of the one institution it controls.
The country is also in a humanitarian crisis. The capital, Caracas, is one of the most violent cities in the world. Hyperinflation has resulted in 90 percent of Venezuelans being unable to afford sufficient food, and as many as 3.4 million people (more than 10 percent of the population) have fled since 2015.
Mayela Armas and Corina Pons, Reuters: “Allies of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro had discussed holding a presidential election in the coming months during talks to find a breakthrough in the country’s political crisis, four sources told Reuters on Monday [August 19].”
Rebecca Falconer, Axios: “U.S. officials are in secret talks with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s top aides for him to step down and enable free elections in the country, the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday [August 21].”
Fabiola Sanchez and Scott Smith, AP: “Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó said Friday that opponents of President Nicolás Maduro won’t participate in any early legislative elections he calls amid a protracted power struggle. Guaidó said in an interview with The Associated Press that it would be a ‘farce; to participate in any election with the Maduro government still in control of the country.”
Gideon Long, Financial Times: “Venezuelan refugee exodus intensifies”
Past Elections
Guatemala General, Second Round – August 11, 2019 (first round was June 16)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
These elections took place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.
In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.
AP: “Guatemala’s Supreme Electoral Tribunal made it official Thursday [August 22]: Alejandro Giammattei will be the country’s next president.”
Victoria Macchi and Ramon Taylor, VOA: “VOA Interview: Guatemalan President-elect Alejandro Giammattei”
Anita Isaacs and Álvaro Montenegro, New York Times: “Time Is Running Out for Democracy in Guatemala: For Guatemalans fearing political persecution, or facing threats to their lives, exile is increasingly viewed as the only means of survival.”
Brazil General – October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Last year’s elections in Brazil swept controversial right-wing populist firebrand Jair Bolsonaro into the presidency, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country.
CBS/AP: “Brazil’s president says he might send military to fight Amazon fires”
Andres Schipani, OZY: “Brazil’s ‘Game of Thrones’: Tensions within Jair Bolsonaro’s inner circle”
Juliane Bazzo, The Advocate: “The #NotHim Movement, the Presidential Elections in Brazil and the Aftermath”
Reuters: “A Sao Paulo state court convicted Fernando Haddad, who was the runner-up in Brazil’s presidential elections last year, of mismanaging campaign accounts when he ran for mayor of Sao Paulo six years earlier.”
Iolanda Fonseca, Rio Times: “Brazilian Electoral Court Invalidates Sergipe State Gubernatorial Election Results. Belivaldo Chagas will remain in office for the duration of the appeal to the Superior Electoral Court.”
Chile General – December 2017
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Eduardo Thomson and Daniela Guzman, Bloomberg: “Two Communist Lawmakers Are Suddenly Setting the Agenda in Chile: In a country that’s long stood out as the beacon of free-market principles in Latin America, two young communist women are capturing much of the attention in government circles.”
Americas This Week – August 24, 2019
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Last Updated: September 27, 2019 by 21votes
August 24, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore the Americas on Saturdays. Click the map pins.
Bolivia General – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates.
Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS) currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.
Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
The election will be competitive, and some polls have shown that the center-right Conservatives would beat incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s center-left Liberals if the election were held today. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.
Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 (Primaries August 11, 2019) and Provincial – Throughout the year (next up: Santa Cruz on August 11, 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
On the presidential front: Incumbent Mauricio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.
In the primaries on August 11, 2019, Fernández and Kirchner won an unexpectedly high 47 percent of the vote, compared with Macri’s 33 percent.
Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections.
Uruguay General – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Nicknamed the “Switzerland of South America,” Uruguay is wealthier than the its neighbors and politically neutral. The three major parties are the center-left and social democratic Frente Amplio (Broad Front) coalition, the center-right National Party (PN), and the liberal Colorado Party (PC). FA holds a razor-thin majority in the General Assembly, with 16 out of 31 Senate seats and 50 out of 99 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. It has had a majority in the General Assembly and held the presidency since 2005. President Tabaré Vázquez, who was elected in 2014 and had also been president from 2005 to 2010, is not able to run this year because the constitution does not allow consecutive terms. Corruption allegations and slow economic growth could hurt FA’s chances in these elections. During the June 30, 2019 primaries – in which voters also express a preferred party – FA received only 23.6 percent of the vote, with PN winning 41.6 and PC picking up 16.8.
Haiti Local and Partial Parliamentary (one third of the Senate and the entire lower house) – Due October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Haiti is in a political crisis. Political chaos related to allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. A commission found that the election had indeed been fraudulent, and ordered a re-reun, which had only 18 percent turnout. President Moïse Jovenel was elected with 56 percent of ballots cast. The opposition alleged fraud once again, but an election tribunal conducted an investigation and certified the results. Violent protesters have demanded the president’s ouster. The 2015-2016 parliamentary elections were also marred by significant fraud. The country is currently without a government as opposition lawmakers have blocked multiple attempts to ratify a new prime minister.
Guyana Snap Parliamentary – November 2019 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil. In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation has delayed the process. Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese.
Trinidad and Tobago Local – November or December 2019 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
The two major parties are Prime Minister Keith Rowley’s People’s National Movement (PNM), which tends to be supported by Afro-Trinidadians and returned to power after winning the 2015 elections. The People’s Partnership (PP) coalition, whose main member the United National Congress (UNC) is mostly supported by Indo-Trinidadians, governed from 2010 to 2015, with leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar serving as Trinidad and Tobago’s first female prime minister. She currently serves as the country’s first female leader of the opposition. The two major parties fall largely, but not exclusively, along ethnic lines. Roughly 40 percent of citizens are of Indian descent and 40 percent are of African descent, with the remaining 20 percent encompassing a broad spectrum of ethnic heritages. However, citizens have a strong sense of national pride and national identity as Trinidadians and Tobagonians. The next parliamentary elections are due by September 2020, but could happen earlier.
Venezuela Legislative - December 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Venezuela is currently in a political crisis following disputed presidential elections in May 2018. Incumbent Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez’s protege, was declared the winner, but the elections were widely denounced as illegitimate and the opposition mostly boycotted the polls. Because Venezuela’s constitution stipulates that the leader of the National Assembly (Venezuela’s only institution with a modicum of democratic legitimacy) becomes interim president if the office is vacant, many of the world’s free democracies recognized Juan Guaidó as interim president until the country holds new elections. Maduro continues to cling to power and his forces are violently cracking down on the opposition. The regime has deployed death squads. However, the opposition perseveres. National Assembly elections are not due until December 2020, but Maduro has threatened to hold early elections, which would likely be neither free nor fair and would deprive the opposition of the one institution it controls.
The country is also in a humanitarian crisis. The capital, Caracas, is one of the most violent cities in the world. Hyperinflation has resulted in 90 percent of Venezuelans being unable to afford sufficient food, and as many as 3.4 million people (more than 10 percent of the population) have fled since 2015.
Guatemala General, Second Round – August 11, 2019 (first round was June 16)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
These elections took place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.
In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.
Brazil General – October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Last year’s elections in Brazil swept controversial right-wing populist firebrand Jair Bolsonaro into the presidency, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country.
Chile General - December 2017
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Upcoming Elections
Bolivia General – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates.
Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS) currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.
Daniel Schweimler, Al Jazeera: “Bolivia: Opposition rallies against president’s re-election bid. The opposition says Morales should respect the results of his own referendum.”
Updated August 26, 2019
Holly K. Sonneland, AS/COA: “Poll Tracker: Bolivia’s 2019 Presidential Race”
Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
The election will be competitive, and some polls have shown that the center-right Conservatives would beat incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s center-left Liberals if the election were held today. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.
Roberto Rocha, CBC: “What 35,000 political ads on Facebook reveal about Canada’s election-year message battle: Groups advertising on Facebook target Canadians with messages on pipelines, climate change.”
Jason Kirby, Financial Times: “Canadian ethics report puts Justin Trudeau back on defensive ahead of election. PM fights to keep flare-up in conflict-of-interest case from harming bid for second term.”
Ashifa Kassam, The Guardian: “Justin Trudeau: the rise and fall of a political brand: Thanks to his clever use of social media, he was dubbed the first prime minister of the Instagram age – but after four years in power, cracks in his image have started to show.”
David Moscrop, Washington Post: “Climate change isn’t a ‘political’ issue. Someone tell Canada’s election agency.”
Tom McMahon, TheTyee: “Why Environmental Groups’ Attack on Elections Canada Is Wrong, and Dangerous. Parliament passed third party spending laws to curb the influence of big money in campaigns. Do enviros want to end that?”
John Paul Tasker, CBC: “60 days out from a federal election, lawn signs are starting to appear”
Steve Lambert, Global News Canada: “Attack ads on simmer: Manitoba election campaign more about issues than scandal”
Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 (Primaries August 11, 2019) and Provincial – Throughout the year (next up: Santa Cruz on August 11, 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
On the presidential front: Incumbent Mauricio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.
In the primaries on August 11, 2019, Fernández and Kirchner won an unexpectedly high 47 percent of the vote, compared with Macri’s 33 percent.
Patricio Provitina, Global Americans: “Argentina’s primary election results: Furthering political polarization and economic instability”
Eliana Raszewski and Cassandra Garrison, Reuters: “Argentine presidential [front-runner] Alberto Fernandez said on Thursday there was ‘no possibility’ the country would default on its debt if he were elected in October, but that the government would have to negotiate new terms with creditors due to the weak economy.”
Marcelo J. García, New York Times: “From a distance, our political story this year seems simple: Good pro-market guy loses, bad guy wins and populism comes back. It is not….Unlike the leaders who have recently been elected in Latin America, Mr. Fernández is a moderate. But he will face an uphill battle to remain that way.”
Lucas Robinson, Buenos Aires Times: “Alberto Fernández to break with Macri’s approach to Venezuela crisis, if elected. Presidential frontrunner says he would break with Lima Group policy and prioritise dialogue in push to turn around crisis-stricken nation.”
Kenneth Rapoza, Forbes: “Why 75% Of Argentina Doesn’t Care About Candidate’s Corruption Or Honesty”
Updated August 25, 2019
John Quigley, Bloomberg: “Thousands March in Argentina in Support of Macri’s Re-Election”
Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections.
Silvia Higuera, University of Texas at Austin’s Knight Center for Journalism in the Americas: “Colombian media team up to fact-check regional elections through RedCheq network…. As in the presidential elections, regional campaigns may be affected by the spread of false information. For that reason, Colombiacheck, the Colombian site dedicated to data verification, began to train journalists in the region ahead of the Aug. 14 launch of the National Network of Checkers (RedCheq).”
Uruguay General – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Nicknamed the “Switzerland of South America,” Uruguay is wealthier than the its neighbors and politically neutral. The three major parties are the center-left and social democratic Frente Amplio (Broad Front) coalition, the center-right National Party (PN), and the liberal Colorado Party (PC). FA holds a razor-thin majority in the General Assembly, with 16 out of 31 Senate seats and 50 out of 99 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. It has had a majority in the General Assembly and held the presidency since 2005. President Tabaré Vázquez, who was elected in 2014 and had also been president from 2005 to 2010, is not able to run this year because the constitution does not allow consecutive terms. Corruption allegations and slow economic growth could hurt FA’s chances in these elections. During the June 30, 2019 primaries – in which voters also express a preferred party – FA received only 23.6 percent of the vote, with PN winning 41.6 and PC picking up 16.8.
AP: “A biopsy has confirmed that Uruguayan President Tabaré Vázquez has lung cancer, the presidency said in a statement on Friday. The statement said that the treatment will be determined by ongoing tests and that Vázquez ‘is in excellent shape.’”
Haiti Local and Partial Parliamentary (one third of the Senate and the entire lower house) – Due October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Haiti is in a political crisis. Political chaos related to allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. A commission found that the election had indeed been fraudulent, and ordered a re-reun, which had only 18 percent turnout. President Moïse Jovenel was elected with 56 percent of ballots cast. The opposition alleged fraud once again, but an election tribunal conducted an investigation and certified the results. Violent protesters have demanded the president’s ouster. The 2015-2016 parliamentary elections were also marred by significant fraud. The country is currently without a government as opposition lawmakers have blocked multiple attempts to ratify a new prime minister.
Sandra Lemaire and Renan Toussaint, VOA: “Haiti’s President Jovenel Moise has survived an impeachment vote in parliament, ending a weekslong push by opposition parties to unseat him over corruption and other criminal allegations.”
Guyana Snap Parliamentary – November 2019 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil. In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation has delayed the process. Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese.
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Orlando Sentinel: “Tiny Guyana could spark freedom in Latin America | Commentary”
Starbroek News: “The opposition PPP today [August 23] accused GECOM [Guyana’s Elections Commission] of procrastinating as it is still to make a decision on the fate of the current house-to-house registration and a date for general elections.”
Trinidad and Tobago Local – November or December 2019 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
The two major parties are Prime Minister Keith Rowley’s People’s National Movement (PNM), which tends to be supported by Afro-Trinidadians and returned to power after winning the 2015 elections. The People’s Partnership (PP) coalition, whose main member the United National Congress (UNC) is mostly supported by Indo-Trinidadians, governed from 2010 to 2015, with leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar serving as Trinidad and Tobago’s first female prime minister. She currently serves as the country’s first female leader of the opposition. The two major parties fall largely, but not exclusively, along ethnic lines. Roughly 40 percent of citizens are of Indian descent and 40 percent are of African descent, with the remaining 20 percent encompassing a broad spectrum of ethnic heritages. However, citizens have a strong sense of national pride and national identity as Trinidadians and Tobagonians. The next parliamentary elections are due by September 2020, but could happen earlier.
Shaliza Hassanali, The Guardian (Trinidad and Tobago): “Local Government elections are expected to be held within the next three months— between late November and early December of this year.The proposed date was given by Rural Development and Local Government Minister Kazim Hosein in a telephone interview with Guardian Media on Wednesday [August 21].”
Venezuela Legislative – December 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Venezuela is currently in a political crisis following disputed presidential elections in May 2018. Incumbent Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez’s protege, was declared the winner, but the elections were widely denounced as illegitimate and the opposition mostly boycotted the polls. Because Venezuela’s constitution stipulates that the leader of the National Assembly (Venezuela’s only institution with a modicum of democratic legitimacy) becomes interim president if the office is vacant, many of the world’s free democracies recognized Juan Guaidó as interim president until the country holds new elections. Maduro continues to cling to power and his forces are violently cracking down on the opposition. The regime has deployed death squads. However, the opposition perseveres. National Assembly elections are not due until December 2020, but Maduro has threatened to hold early elections, which would likely be neither free nor fair and would deprive the opposition of the one institution it controls.
The country is also in a humanitarian crisis. The capital, Caracas, is one of the most violent cities in the world. Hyperinflation has resulted in 90 percent of Venezuelans being unable to afford sufficient food, and as many as 3.4 million people (more than 10 percent of the population) have fled since 2015.
Mayela Armas and Corina Pons, Reuters: “Allies of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro had discussed holding a presidential election in the coming months during talks to find a breakthrough in the country’s political crisis, four sources told Reuters on Monday [August 19].”
Rebecca Falconer, Axios: “U.S. officials are in secret talks with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s top aides for him to step down and enable free elections in the country, the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday [August 21].”
Fabiola Sanchez and Scott Smith, AP: “Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó said Friday that opponents of President Nicolás Maduro won’t participate in any early legislative elections he calls amid a protracted power struggle. Guaidó said in an interview with The Associated Press that it would be a ‘farce; to participate in any election with the Maduro government still in control of the country.”
Gideon Long, Financial Times: “Venezuelan refugee exodus intensifies”
Past Elections
Guatemala General, Second Round – August 11, 2019 (first round was June 16)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
These elections took place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.
In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.
AP: “Guatemala’s Supreme Electoral Tribunal made it official Thursday [August 22]: Alejandro Giammattei will be the country’s next president.”
Victoria Macchi and Ramon Taylor, VOA: “VOA Interview: Guatemalan President-elect Alejandro Giammattei”
Anita Isaacs and Álvaro Montenegro, New York Times: “Time Is Running Out for Democracy in Guatemala: For Guatemalans fearing political persecution, or facing threats to their lives, exile is increasingly viewed as the only means of survival.”
Brazil General – October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Last year’s elections in Brazil swept controversial right-wing populist firebrand Jair Bolsonaro into the presidency, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country.
CBS/AP: “Brazil’s president says he might send military to fight Amazon fires”
Andres Schipani, OZY: “Brazil’s ‘Game of Thrones’: Tensions within Jair Bolsonaro’s inner circle”
Juliane Bazzo, The Advocate: “The #NotHim Movement, the Presidential Elections in Brazil and the Aftermath”
Reuters: “A Sao Paulo state court convicted Fernando Haddad, who was the runner-up in Brazil’s presidential elections last year, of mismanaging campaign accounts when he ran for mayor of Sao Paulo six years earlier.”
Iolanda Fonseca, Rio Times: “Brazilian Electoral Court Invalidates Sergipe State Gubernatorial Election Results. Belivaldo Chagas will remain in office for the duration of the appeal to the Superior Electoral Court.”
Chile General – December 2017
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Eduardo Thomson and Daniela Guzman, Bloomberg: “Two Communist Lawmakers Are Suddenly Setting the Agenda in Chile: In a country that’s long stood out as the beacon of free-market principles in Latin America, two young communist women are capturing much of the attention in government circles.”
The Year Ahead: Americas
Canada provincial and territorial (throughout the year); Haiti parliamentary (due October – delays likely); Bolivia presidential and legislative (October 20); Canada general (October 21); Argentina presidential and legislative (October 27); Uruguay presidential and legislative (October 27); Colombia local (October 27); Guyana snap parliamentary (overdue – tentatively expected November but could be later); Trinidad and Tobago local (November); Dominica legislative (December); St. Kitts and Nevis legislative (February)
21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.
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Category: This Week Tags: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, Venezuela