Upcoming Elections
Zimbabwe National Assembly By-Elections, Glen View South and Mangwe constituencies – September 7, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (improved from Not Free in 2019) – Government Type: Presidential Republic
A coup in 2017 led to the fall of Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s longtime dictator, who left a legacy of gross economic mismanagement and political repression. Mugabe had ruled Zimbabwe with the aid of former Soviet security advice since the transition of apartheid rule in 1979. The 2018 elections for parliament and president had a number of flaws but nonetheless did offer the hope of some semblance of democratic legitimacy to the government. Emmerson Mnangagwa of Mugabe’s ZANU-PF – a former intelligence chief nicknamed “The Crocodile” – narrowly won the presidential race, and promised “radical economic reforms.” However, critics say those reforms have not materialized as of yet, and a violent crackdown on the opposition following the elections echoed Mugabe’s tactics. Zimbabweans live with extreme poverty, food insecurity, and hyperinflation.
The Glen View South seat became vacant when Vimbai Tsvangirai-Java, the daughter of Mugabe’s main rival the late Morgan Tsvangirai, died in a car crash. Tsvangirai was leader of Zimbabwe’s main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), and members of his family still serve in the party. The Mangwe seat became vacant when ZANU-PF’s Obedingwa Mguni died of an illness. Glen VIew is near the capital, Harare, in the northeast of the country, and Mangwe is near Bulawayo, Zimbabwe’s second city, in the southwest of the country.
Blessed Mhlanga, NewsDay (Zimbabwe): “The two main political parties, Zanu PF and the MDC, have turned their rivalry to the Glen View South constituency by-election amid allegations of vote-buying, intimidation and financial warfare.”
Brian Raftopoulos, The Conversation: “Repression and dialogue in Zimbabwe: twin strategies that aren’t working”
Kenya Kibra By-Election – November 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Kenya’s next general elections are not due until 2022. The August 2017 elections were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
Kibra constituency is located in Nairobi County and includes Kibera, often called “Africa’s largest slum.” The seat became open when incumbent Ken Okoth died of cancer in July 2019. Okoth was a member of Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
Justus Ochieng The Daily Nation (Kenya): “Jubilee Party will field a candidate in the Kibra Constituency November 7 by-election….Prior to [Party Secretary-General Raphael] Tuju’s announcement, there were claims that the President Uhuru Kenyatta-led party would not field a candidate in favour of Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) candidate in the spirit of the March 9, 2018 handshake.”
Roselyne Obala, The Standard Digital (Kenya): “The move comes a day after Raila unveiled the aspirants eyeing the seat left vacant in July following the death of ODM’s Ken Okoth. Some 26 aspirants are scrambling for the ODM ticket. Kibra was hived off the larger Langata Constituency, which was initially represented by Raila. The area is perceived as Raila’s strong support base. ”
Otieno Otieno, The East African: “Shifting alliances: On Kenya’s political scene, history regularly repeats itself”
Mozambique Presidential, Legislative, and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since then until an August 2019 peace accord). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.
RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities. Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth. In the upcoming elections, in addition to voting for president, citizens will elect provincial governors directly for the first time – previously, they had been appointed by the president.
CNBC: “Mozambique seals energy deal with Russia on the brink of elections: What does this development hold for its growing economy?”
Kurt Davis Jr., The Africa Report: “Mozambique’s long-running debt scandal from 2014 drove the country into a financial and political crisis. As the October 2019 election approaches, voters wonder whether the nation can walk back from the brink of economic collapse.”
Nigeria Kogi and Bayelsa State Governorships – November 16, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Party Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Nigeria, the “Giant of Africa,” as Nigerians call the continent’s most populous country, has a history of military coups, and since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.
The two main political parties are the “sort-of-right” People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and “sort-of-left” All Progressives Congress (APC), plus a plethora of smaller parties. Historically, PDP has been strong in Christian areas and in the south, while APC has been strong in the mostly-Muslim north. Nigeria is about half Christian and half Muslim, and there is some religious conflict, but religion is not the only driver of conflict in the country. There is a handshake agreement that the presidency will rotate between the north and the south every eight years, regardless of which party wins; thus, for the 2019 election, both major parties chose candidates from the north. PDP nominated Atiku Abubakar to challenge APC incumbent Muhammadu Buhari, who won narrowly. APC also won a majority in the legislature.
A debate over federalism played a major role in Nigeria’s February 2019 general elections. Atiku advocated for a greater devolution of powers to state governments, a proposal that Buhari categorically opposed. Political power is currently highly centralized, but many argue that it is dysfunctional.
Voters in 29 of Nigeria’s 36 states elected governors during the general elections in February 2019. Bayelsa State in the southern oil-producing Niger Delta, and Kogi State in the Middle Belt have gubernatorial elections in mid-November. (The Middle Belt is a largely-agricultural area that forms the border between the mostly-Muslim north and mostly Christian south, and the site of a deadly conflict between farmers and herders.) PDP currently control Bayelsa (and 13 other states), and APC currently controls the remaining states, including Kogi.
Daniels Igoni, The Punch (Nigeria): “APC screens six aspirants for Bayelsa gov poll”
Tunde Ososanya, Legit (Nigeria): “The Bayelsa state gubernatorial primary election screening committee of the All Progressives Congress (APC) has released the list of those cleared to contest the primary election of the party ahead of the governorship election in the state. The screening committee disqualified the immediate past Cross River state resident electoral commissioner, Dr Frankland Briyai from participating in the August 29th primaries.”
Eromosele Ebhomele, Legit (Nigeria): “The All Progressives Congress (APC) has approved the aspiration of Yahaya Bello and three others to seek the candidature of the party ahead of the governorship election in Kogi state. The party also disqualified 12 aspirants including the two sons of a former governor of the state, late Abubakar Audu.”
Tanzania Local – November 24, 2019 and General – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Tanzania’s socialist Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and its predecessors have been in power since 1961. In the 2015 elections, deemed imperfect but credible by observers, John Magufuli won, and has since launched a crackdown on the opposition, media, civil society, and the private sector. The main opposition center-right Chadema, whose leader Freeman Mbowe recently spent nearly five months in prison on charges of sedition, currently holds 62 out of 384 seats in the unicameral National Assembly. Edward Lowassa, a former CCM prime minister who ran for president in 2015 as the candidate of Chadema and a coalition of other opposition parties, won 40 percent of the vote. Lowassa has since returned to CCM along with other opposition figures who have been bribed or bullied into crossing the aisle and joining the ruling party.
The Economist notes, “Today Tanzania is on the descent from patchy democracy towards slapdash dictatorship.”
Louis Kolumbia, The Citizen (Tanzania): “It’s all systems go as govt unveils civic polls details: Local government elections in Mainland Tanzania will be held on November 24, the government announced yesterday [August 23].”
Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – Early 2020 (delayed from October 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.
Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat. The political crisis has an ethnic dimension.
Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections, which are likely delayed following a July vote by the National Assembly to extend its term in office (the National Assembly’s second extension). The mandates were set to expire October 29, 2019 and have been extended for two months, so the elections that had been due in October most likely will not happen before 2020.
Moki Edwin Kindzeka, VOA: Thousands Flee Violence in Cameroon’s English-Speaking Regions”
Cheryl Hendricks and Gabriel Ngah, The Conversation: “What it would take to break the impasse in Cameroon’s deadly crisis” (Interview with Camerooonian Anglophone lawyer and activist Felix Agbor Balla Nkongho)
Chad Legislative and Local – Due 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Idriss Déby seized power in a rebellion in 1990, and although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote. Western governments, particularly France, view the Déby regime as a security partner in countering terrorism in the region, and provide military aid. Opposition activists face arrest and mistreatment. There are concerns that the regime uses counterterrorism as an excuse for suppressing legitimate political opposition.
The mandate of the current National Assembly expired in 2015, and the elections have been delayed multiple times. In 2018, President Idriss Déby announced that the elections would happen in the “first half of 2019,” without giving a date, but in May 2019, the government delayed the elections indefinitely again, citing cost. The opposition holds that the real issue is a lack of political will.
The Guardian (Nigeria): “The [Nigerian] Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has expressed its readiness to assist its counterpart from the Republic of Chad to conduct free, fair and credible parliamentary elections.”
Guinea Legislative – 2019 and Presidential – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Elections in Guinea routinely see significant delays and have historically been surrounded by ethnic tensions and violence. President Alpha Condé, a former opposition leader who came to power in 2010 following a transition from military to civilian rule, is prevented by the constitution from running for a third term in the presidential polls due in 2020. However, he wants to change the constitution to allow him to do so (which Russia is encouraging because Russian companies have mining interests in Guinea). The terms of the current legislators expired in January 2019. Condé extended their mandates, and a new election date has not been set.
Ruth Maclean, The Guardian: “’Russians have special status’: politics and mining mix in Guinea: Activist alleges Russian mining companies are given advantages in country that gets third of its revenues from the sector.”
Burundi Presidential and Legislative – May 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
In 2015, President Pierre Nkurunziza ran for a third term, which critics said was unconstitutional. Nkurunziza’s decision sparked a political crisis. The opposition boycotted the election. Nkurunziza won, but the election was marred by violence and a coup attempt. In 2018, Nkurunziza said he would step down in 2020. Burundi’s 12-year civil war ended in 2005, but violence and authoritarianism have been on the rise. Many Burundians are nervous about the upcoming polls.
Desire Nimubona, Bloomberg: “Burundi Opposition Warns of Rising Violence Ahead of 2020 Vote”
Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Following three years of protests, Ethiopia’s ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners and opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful. However, violence could threaten Abiy’s reforms.
In the 2015 elections – which were not free and fair – the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats.
Abdur Rahman Alfa Shaban, AfricaNews: “The Ethiopian parliament, the House of People’s Representatives, HoPR; today approved a new electoral bill ahead of much anticipated national polls slated for next year. Lawmakers convened in an extraordinary session to debate and pass the law which had been under construction since Abiy came into power in April 2018.”
Reuters: “Ethiopia’s opposition parties criticize election law changes….On Friday 57 opposition parties said their proposed amendments to the bill were ignored by the ruling party, who currently hold all parliamentary seats.”
Central African Republic General – December 27, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
The Central African Republic (CAR) faces a humanitarian crisis and a crisis of governance. Russia has ramped up its political and military involvement in exchange for mining rights. Last year, three Russian journalists from a newspaper critical of the Kremlin were killed in the country while they were investigating the role of Russian military contractor in exploiting the CAR’s mineral wealth.
Mathieu Olivier, The Africa Report: “Russia’s murky business dealings in the Central African Republic: Gold, diamonds, weapons, money laundering, and all kinds of trafficking… the Russian presence in the Central African Republic gives rise to many fantasies, some wrong, but often correct.”
Ghana Presidential and Legislative – December 7, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Ghana’s two main political parties, the center-right New Patriotic Party (NPP) and center-left National Democratic Congress (NDC), have alternated stints in power since Ghana began holding multiparty elections. Ghana is often cited as a success story for democratic transition, despite some lingering issues. Although each party has bases of support in certain regions or ethnic groups, the parties define themselves by ideology and campaign on issues. In the 2016 presidential polls, NPP’s Nana Akufo-Addo defeated incumbent John Mahama from the NDC following a contentious campaign. Eleven parties competed in the parliamentary elections, but
only the NPP and the NDC won seats, with the NPP winning a majority.
APA: “Ghana: Opposition NDC vote in parliamentary primaries”
GhanaWeb: “A total of 524 candidates [contested] the internal polls in 157 constituencies out of 275 to represent the largest opposition party in Parliament in the next general elections. Thirty-nine Members of Parliament [went] unopposed. Delegates in 71 constituencies will later to go to the polls to elect their candidates.”
Uganda General – February 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Partly Free this year) – Government Type: Presidential Republic
President Yoweri Museveni has held power since 1986 and looks likely to seek a sixth term. Musaveni is seen as an ally to Western governments on counterterrorism issues, despite concerns about human rights and civil liberties.
Musaveni’s National Resistance Movement (NRM), an authoritarian nationalist party, was originally a militia involved in the struggle to topple the government in 1986. In the last presidential election in 2016 (which was marred by an uneven playing field and government use of state resources and security services for political purposes), Kizza Besigye of the main opposition center-right Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) won 35.6 percent, coming in second. NRM holds 293 out of 426 seats in parliament, and FDC holds 36 (other opposition parties hold 21).
Jonathan Kamoga, The East African: “Uganda: Civil Society’s Unease Over Uganda’s Election: When Ugandans troop to the polling stations in the 2021 general election, they may as well be walking into a battlefield, warns a report, but this could be averted if a national dialogue is held and the political playing field is levelled.”
The Citizen (Tanzania): “Bobi Wine lays out his agenda for Uganda”
Past Elections
Namibia Oshakati East by-election – August 24 and Presidential and Legislative – November 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Namibia is a free, stable democracy. Since independence from South Africa in 1990, Namibian politics have been dominated by the socialist SWAPO, an independence movement-turned-political party. In the 2014 elections, judged free, fair, and credible by observers, SWAPO’s presidential candidate, Hage Geingob, won 87 percent of the vote. The party also won 80 percent of votes in the legislative elections. The Economist Intelligence Unit predicts that SWAPO will win the 2019 elections but its majority will decrease.
The Namibian: “Double-vote blunder in Oshakati by-election”
Hileni Nembwaya and Sakeus Iikela, The Namibian: “The Election Commission of Namibia’s chief electoral officer, Theo Mujoro, says the incident during the Oshakati East constituency by-election in which a woman voted twice has nothing to do with whether the electronic voting machines can be manipulated. Mujoro said the incident was simply a human error by electoral officials, and had nothing to do with the legitimacy of the electronic voting machines (EVMs).”
Somalia Jubaland State Presidential and Parliament (indirect) – August 2019 and Federal Parliamentary and Presidential – due 2020 or 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Somalia hasn’t held direct elections in 50 years at the federal level, and at the state level, only the de facto independent Somaliland holds one-person-one-vote polls. The other states have electoral colleges with clan elders as electors. Somalia has federal elections due in 2020 or 2021, and hopes to move toward a one-person-one-vote model. However, the August Jubaland elections are not direct (which is why they are not on our big map). Politics – and conflict – throughout Somalia is largely based on clans, but efforts have been made to move toward a politics based on political parties. The terrorist group al-Shabab remains a menace.
Jubaland is rich in natural resources, raising the stakes of the election. Kismayo, the capital of Jubaland, this month saw the biggest terrorist attack since an action led by Kenyan soldiers ousted al-Shabab from the city in 2012. The election became source of tension between Kenya, which backed incumbent, and Ethiopia, which has grown closer to the government in Mogadishu. Kenya views the incumbent, Ahmed Mohamed Madobe, as an important security partner, but he has a frosty relationship with the central government in Mogadishu (which is looking to bring Jubaland and other states under closer central control).
Abdiqani Hassan, Reuters: “The president of Jubbaland, a Somali region critical to East Africa’s fight against the Islamist militants of al Shabaab, won a new term on Thursday, highlighting a growing rift between the federal government and its semi-autonomous states.”
Morris Kiruga, The Africa Report: “Regional interests shaped Thursday’s elections in Somalia’s semi-autonomous region of Jubaland, with two people claiming to have won the presidency.”
Macharia Munene, The Standard (Kenya): “….Federal Republic of Somalia President Mohammed Abdullahi Mohammed alias Farmajo refused to accept Madobe’s victory. Farmajo seemingly organised his own voting in which Madobe supposedly lost. Subsequently, Jubbaland has theoretically two state governments; a recipe for instability in the region.”
Fred Oluoch, The East African: “States vs central govt: Why the world was glued to Jubbaland election”
Liberia By-Elections – July 29, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
When President George Weah, a former footballer, was elected in 2017, Liberia saw its first peaceful transition of power since 1944. The country holds elections to the Senate in 2020.
Henry Karmo, Front Page Africa: “The ruling Coalition for Democratic Change (CDC) says it will not feed a candidate in the pending senatorial by-election in Grand Cape Mount County. Residents of the county will go to by-election to fill the vacancy created as a result of the death of Senator Edward Dagosseh who died early June this year.”
Moses Garzeawu, VOA: “Liberian President George Weah has proposed reducing term lengths for members of the executive and legislative branches of government. Under his plan, the president and representatives would serve five years instead of six, while senators would sit for seven years rather than nine.”
Malawi Tripartite (Presidential, Legislative, Local) – May 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
A series of protests (which are ongoing) followed Malawi’s May 2019 elections. Protesters alleged that Peter Mutharika’s re-election was fraudulent, dubbing it the “Tipp-Ex Election” after a popular brand of correction fluid that they allege officials used to change the results. However, the use of Tipp-Ex might not actually have been the smoking gun that it looks like. The opposition is also challenging the election results in court.
Malawi’s last few elections have taken place in a tense political environment, and it is one of the poorest countries in the world. Political parties are weak and based more on personality than ideology.
Liesl Louw-Vaudran and Ringisai Chikohomero, ISS Today/The Daily Maverick: “Tippex election can’t erase Malawians’ dissatisfaction: Malawi’s opposition and civil society are ready for more protests over the presidential poll results.”
Updated August 27, 2019
BBC (video): “Malawi bans all demonstrations”
Abdur Rahman Alfa Shaban, AfricaNews: “The order imposes a 14-day moratorium against opposition demonstrations in all parts of the country. Registrar of the High Court and Supreme Court of Appeal, Agnes Patemba confirmed the development in an interview to local media outlets.”
Benin Parliamentary – April 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Benin was previously a model democracy in the region, but the April 2019 parliamentary elections changed that. Opposition candidates were barred from running, and security forces opened fire on protesters.
Vatican News: “The Bishops of Benin say they are continuing with their mediation efforts to resolve the political crisis in the country that followed disputed elections in April. Their statement comes after some media outlets reported that the Church had withdrawn from negotiations.”
Justice Nwafor, International Policy Digest: “With Clampdown on Dissent, Africa’s Development May Take longer”
Democratic Republic of the Congo General – December 30, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
The DRC’s December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu. When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi. The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country, but both have returned.
DW: “DR Congo names new government after 7-month delay. Most members of the new executive have been drawn from former president Joseph Kabila’s Common Front for Congo. DRC will now have a female vice prime minister, minister for foreign affairs and minister for planning.”
Africa Times: “Congolese refugees who fled to Angola to escape fighting between armed groups and military forces in 2017 are beginning to return home, according to Angolan officials and UNHCR, the United Nations refugee agency.”
BBC: “Amazon fires: Angola and DR Congo ‘have more blazes’”
Africa This Week – August 26, 2019
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Last Updated: September 6, 2019 by 21votes
August 26, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Africa on Mondays. Click the map pins.
Zimbabwe National Assembly By-Elections, Glen View South and Mangwe constituencies – September 7, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (improved from Not Free in 2019) – Government Type: Presidential Republic
A coup in 2017 led to the fall of Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s longtime dictator, who left a legacy of gross economic mismanagement and political repression. Mugabe had ruled Zimbabwe with the aid of former Soviet security advice since the transition of apartheid rule in 1979. The 2018 elections for parliament and president had a number of flaws but nonetheless did offer the hope of some semblance of democratic legitimacy to the government. Emmerson Mnangagwa of Mugabe’s ZANU-PF – a former intelligence chief nicknamed “The Crocodile” – narrowly won the presidential race, and promised “radical economic reforms.” However, critics say those reforms have not materialized as of yet, and a violent crackdown on the opposition following the elections echoed Mugabe’s tactics. Zimbabweans live with extreme poverty, food insecurity, and hyperinflation.
The Glen View South seat became vacant when Vimbai Tsvangirai-Java, the daughter of Mugabe’s main rival the late Morgan Tsvangirai, died in a car crash. Tsvangirai was leader of Zimbabwe’s main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), and members of his family still serve in the party. The Mangwe seat became vacant when ZANU-PF’s Obedingwa Mguni died of an illness. Glen VIew is near the capital, Harare, in the northeast of the country, and Mangwe is near Bulawayo, Zimbabwe’s second city, in the southwest of the country.
Kenya Kibra By-Election – November 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Kenya’s next general elections are not due until 2022. The August 2017 elections were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
Kibra constituency is located in Nairobi County and includes Kibera, often called “Africa’s largest slum.” The seat became open when incumbent Ken Okoth died of cancer in July 2019. Okoth was a member of Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
Mozambique Presidential, Legislative, and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since then until an August 2019 peace accord). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.
RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities. Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth. In the upcoming elections, in addition to voting for president, citizens will elect provincial governors directly for the first time – previously, they had been appointed by the president.
Nigeria Kogi and Bayelsa State Governorships – November 16, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Party Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Nigeria, the “Giant of Africa,” as Nigerians call the continent’s most populous country, has a history of military coups, and since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.
The two main political parties are the “sort-of-right” People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and “sort-of-left” All Progressives Congress (APC), plus a plethora of smaller parties. Historically, PDP has been strong in Christian areas and in the south, while APC has been strong in the mostly-Muslim north. Nigeria is about half Christian and half Muslim, and there is some religious conflict, but religion is not the only driver of conflict in the country. There is a handshake agreement that the presidency will rotate between the north and the south every eight years, regardless of which party wins; thus, for the 2019 election, both major parties chose candidates from the north. PDP nominated Atiku Abubakar to challenge APC incumbent Muhammadu Buhari, who won narrowly. APC also won a majority in the legislature.
A debate over federalism played a major role in Nigeria’s February 2019 general elections. Atiku advocated for a greater devolution of powers to state governments, a proposal that Buhari categorically opposed. Political power is currently highly centralized, but many argue that it is dysfunctional.
Voters in 29 of Nigeria’s 36 states elected governors during the general elections in February 2019. Bayelsa State in the southern oil-producing Niger Delta, and Kogi State in the Middle Belt have gubernatorial elections in mid-November. (The Middle Belt is a largely-agricultural area that forms the border between the mostly-Muslim north and mostly Christian south, and the site of a deadly conflict between farmers and herders.) PDP currently control Bayelsa (and 13 other states), and APC currently controls the remaining states, including Kogi.
Tanzania Local - November 24, 2019 and General - October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Tanzania’s socialist Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and its predecessors have been in power since 1961. In the 2015 elections, deemed imperfect but credible by observers, John Magufuli won, and has since launched a crackdown on the opposition, media, civil society, and the private sector. The main opposition center-right Chadema, whose leader Freeman Mbowe recently spent nearly five months in prison on charges of sedition, currently holds 62 out of 384 seats in the unicameral National Assembly. Edward Lowassa, a former CCM prime minister who ran for president in 2015 as the candidate of Chadema and a coalition of other opposition parties, won 40 percent of the vote. Lowassa has since returned to CCM along with other opposition figures who have been bribed or bullied into crossing the aisle and joining the ruling party.
The Economist notes, “Today Tanzania is on the descent from patchy democracy towards slapdash dictatorship.”
Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – Early 2020 (delayed from October 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.
Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat. The political crisis has an ethnic dimension.
Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections, which are likely delayed following a July vote by the National Assembly to extend its term in office (the National Assembly’s second extension). The mandates were set to expire October 29, 2019 and have been extended for two months, so the elections that had been due in October most likely will not happen before 2020.
Burundi Presidential and Legislative – May 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
In 2015, President Pierre Nkurunziza ran for a third term, which critics said was unconstitutional. Nkurunziza’s decision sparked a political crisis. The opposition boycotted the election. Nkurunziza won, but the election was marred by violence and a coup attempt. In 2018, Nkurunziza said he would step down in 2020. Burundi’s 12-year civil war ended in 2005, but violence and authoritarianism have been on the rise. Many Burundians are nervous about the upcoming polls.
Central African Republic General – December 27, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
The Central African Republic (CAR) faces a humanitarian crisis and a crisis of governance. Russia has ramped up its political and military involvement in exchange for mining rights. Last year, three Russian journalists from a newspaper critical of the Kremlin were killed in the country while they were investigating the role of Russian military contractor in exploiting the CAR’s mineral wealth.
Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Following three years of protests, Ethiopia’s ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners and opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful. However, violence could threaten Abiy’s reforms.
In the 2015 elections – which were not free and fair – the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats.
Abdur Rahman Alfa Shaban, AfricaNews: “The Ethiopian parliament, the House of People’s Representatives, HoPR; today approved a new electoral bill ahead of much anticipated national polls slated for next year. Lawmakers convened in an extraordinary session to debate and pass the law which had been under construction since Abiy came into power in April 2018.”
Chad Legislative and Local – Due 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Idriss Déby seized power in a rebellion in 1990, and although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote. Western governments, particularly France, view the Déby regime as a security partner in countering terrorism in the region, and provide military aid. Opposition activists face arrest and mistreatment. There are concerns that the regime uses counterterrorism as an excuse for suppressing legitimate political opposition.
The mandate of the current National Assembly expired in 2015, and the elections have been delayed multiple times. In 2018, President Idriss Déby announced that the elections would happen in the “first half of 2019,” without giving a date, but in May 2019, the government delayed the elections indefinitely again, citing cost. The opposition holds that the real issue is a lack of political will.
Guinea Legislative – 2019 and Presidential – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Elections in Guinea routinely see significant delays and have historically been surrounded by ethnic tensions and violence. President Alpha Condé, a former opposition leader who came to power in 2010 following a transition from military to civilian rule, is prevented by the constitution from running for a third term in the presidential polls due in 2020. However, he wants to change the constitution to allow him to do so (which Russia is encouraging because Russian companies have mining interests in Guinea). The terms of the current legislators expired in January 2019. Condé extended their mandates, and a new election date has not been set.
Ghana Presidential and Legislative - December 7, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Ghana’s two main political parties, the center-right New Patriotic Party (NPP) and center-left National Democratic Congress (NDC), have alternated stints in power since Ghana began holding multiparty elections. Ghana is often cited as a success story for democratic transition, despite some lingering issues. Although each party has bases of support in certain regions or ethnic groups, the parties define themselves by ideology and campaign on issues. In the 2016 presidential polls, NPP’s Nana Akufo-Addo defeated incumbent John Mahama from the NDC following a contentious campaign. Eleven parties competed in the parliamentary elections, but
only the NPP and the NDC won seats, with the NPP winning a majority.
Uganda General – February 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Partly Free this year) – Government Type: Presidential Republic
President Yoweri Museveni has held power since 1986 and looks likely to seek a sixth term. Musaveni is seen as an ally to Western governments on counterterrorism issues, despite concerns about human rights and civil liberties.
Musaveni’s National Resistance Movement (NRM), an authoritarian nationalist party, was originally a militia involved in the struggle to topple the government in 1986. In the last presidential election in 2016 (which was marred by an uneven playing field and government use of state resources and security services for political purposes), Kizza Besigye of the main opposition center-right Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) won 35.6 percent, coming in second. NRM holds 293 out of 426 seats in parliament, and FDC holds 36 (other opposition parties hold 21).
Namibia Oshakati East by-election – August 24 and Presidential and Legislative – November 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Namibia is a free, stable democracy. Since independence from South Africa in 1990, Namibian politics have been dominated by the socialist SWAPO, an independence movement-turned-political party. In the 2014 elections, judged free, fair, and credible by observers, SWAPO’s presidential candidate, Hage Geingob, won 87 percent of the vote. The party also won 80 percent of votes in the legislative elections. The Economist Intelligence Unit predicts that SWAPO will win the 2019 elections but its majority will decrease.
Somalia Jubaland State Presidential and Parliament (indirect) – August 2019 and Federal Parliamentary and Presidential – due 2020 or 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Somalia hasn’t held direct elections in 50 years at the federal level, and at the state level, only the de facto independent Somaliland holds one-person-one-vote polls. The other states have electoral colleges with clan elders as electors. Somalia has federal elections due in 2020 or 2021, and hopes to move toward a one-person-one-vote model. However, the August Jubaland elections are not direct (which is why they are not on our big map). Politics – and conflict – throughout Somalia is largely based on clans, but efforts have been made to move toward a politics based on political parties. The terrorist group al-Shabab remains a menace.
Jubaland is rich in natural resources, raising the stakes of the election. Kismayo, the capital of Jubaland, this month saw the biggest terrorist attack since an action led by Kenyan soldiers ousted al-Shabab from the city in 2012. The election became source of tension between Kenya, which backed incumbent, and Ethiopia, which has grown closer to the government in Mogadishu. Kenya views the incumbent, Ahmed Mohamed Madobe, as an important security partner, but he has a frosty relationship with the central government in Mogadishu (which is looking to bring Jubaland and other states under closer central control).
Liberia By-Elections – July 29, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
When President George Weah, a former footballer, was elected in 2017, Liberia saw its first peaceful transition of power since 1944. The country holds elections to the Senate in 2020.
Malawi Tripartite (Presidential, Legislative, Local) – May 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
A series of protests (which are ongoing) followed Malawi’s May 2019 elections. Protesters alleged that Peter Mutharika’s re-election was fraudulent, dubbing it the “Tipp-Ex Election” after a popular brand of correction fluid that they allege officials used to change the results. However, the use of Tipp-Ex might not actually have been the smoking gun that it looks like. The opposition is also challenging the election results in court.
Malawi’s last few elections have taken place in a tense political environment, and it is one of the poorest countries in the world. Political parties are weak and based more on personality than ideology.
Benin Parliamentary – April 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Benin was previously a model democracy in the region, but the April 2019 parliamentary elections changed that. Opposition candidates were barred from running, and security forces opened fire on protesters.
Democratic Republic of the Congo General – December 30, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
The DRC’s December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu. When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi. The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country, but both have returned.
Upcoming Elections
Zimbabwe National Assembly By-Elections, Glen View South and Mangwe constituencies – September 7, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (improved from Not Free in 2019) – Government Type: Presidential Republic
A coup in 2017 led to the fall of Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s longtime dictator, who left a legacy of gross economic mismanagement and political repression. Mugabe had ruled Zimbabwe with the aid of former Soviet security advice since the transition of apartheid rule in 1979. The 2018 elections for parliament and president had a number of flaws but nonetheless did offer the hope of some semblance of democratic legitimacy to the government. Emmerson Mnangagwa of Mugabe’s ZANU-PF – a former intelligence chief nicknamed “The Crocodile” – narrowly won the presidential race, and promised “radical economic reforms.” However, critics say those reforms have not materialized as of yet, and a violent crackdown on the opposition following the elections echoed Mugabe’s tactics. Zimbabweans live with extreme poverty, food insecurity, and hyperinflation.
The Glen View South seat became vacant when Vimbai Tsvangirai-Java, the daughter of Mugabe’s main rival the late Morgan Tsvangirai, died in a car crash. Tsvangirai was leader of Zimbabwe’s main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), and members of his family still serve in the party. The Mangwe seat became vacant when ZANU-PF’s Obedingwa Mguni died of an illness. Glen VIew is near the capital, Harare, in the northeast of the country, and Mangwe is near Bulawayo, Zimbabwe’s second city, in the southwest of the country.
Blessed Mhlanga, NewsDay (Zimbabwe): “The two main political parties, Zanu PF and the MDC, have turned their rivalry to the Glen View South constituency by-election amid allegations of vote-buying, intimidation and financial warfare.”
Brian Raftopoulos, The Conversation: “Repression and dialogue in Zimbabwe: twin strategies that aren’t working”
Kenya Kibra By-Election – November 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Kenya’s next general elections are not due until 2022. The August 2017 elections were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
Kibra constituency is located in Nairobi County and includes Kibera, often called “Africa’s largest slum.” The seat became open when incumbent Ken Okoth died of cancer in July 2019. Okoth was a member of Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
Justus Ochieng The Daily Nation (Kenya): “Jubilee Party will field a candidate in the Kibra Constituency November 7 by-election….Prior to [Party Secretary-General Raphael] Tuju’s announcement, there were claims that the President Uhuru Kenyatta-led party would not field a candidate in favour of Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) candidate in the spirit of the March 9, 2018 handshake.”
Roselyne Obala, The Standard Digital (Kenya): “The move comes a day after Raila unveiled the aspirants eyeing the seat left vacant in July following the death of ODM’s Ken Okoth. Some 26 aspirants are scrambling for the ODM ticket. Kibra was hived off the larger Langata Constituency, which was initially represented by Raila. The area is perceived as Raila’s strong support base. ”
Otieno Otieno, The East African: “Shifting alliances: On Kenya’s political scene, history regularly repeats itself”
Mozambique Presidential, Legislative, and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since then until an August 2019 peace accord). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.
RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities. Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth. In the upcoming elections, in addition to voting for president, citizens will elect provincial governors directly for the first time – previously, they had been appointed by the president.
CNBC: “Mozambique seals energy deal with Russia on the brink of elections: What does this development hold for its growing economy?”
Kurt Davis Jr., The Africa Report: “Mozambique’s long-running debt scandal from 2014 drove the country into a financial and political crisis. As the October 2019 election approaches, voters wonder whether the nation can walk back from the brink of economic collapse.”
Nigeria Kogi and Bayelsa State Governorships – November 16, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Party Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Nigeria, the “Giant of Africa,” as Nigerians call the continent’s most populous country, has a history of military coups, and since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.
The two main political parties are the “sort-of-right” People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and “sort-of-left” All Progressives Congress (APC), plus a plethora of smaller parties. Historically, PDP has been strong in Christian areas and in the south, while APC has been strong in the mostly-Muslim north. Nigeria is about half Christian and half Muslim, and there is some religious conflict, but religion is not the only driver of conflict in the country. There is a handshake agreement that the presidency will rotate between the north and the south every eight years, regardless of which party wins; thus, for the 2019 election, both major parties chose candidates from the north. PDP nominated Atiku Abubakar to challenge APC incumbent Muhammadu Buhari, who won narrowly. APC also won a majority in the legislature.
A debate over federalism played a major role in Nigeria’s February 2019 general elections. Atiku advocated for a greater devolution of powers to state governments, a proposal that Buhari categorically opposed. Political power is currently highly centralized, but many argue that it is dysfunctional.
Voters in 29 of Nigeria’s 36 states elected governors during the general elections in February 2019. Bayelsa State in the southern oil-producing Niger Delta, and Kogi State in the Middle Belt have gubernatorial elections in mid-November. (The Middle Belt is a largely-agricultural area that forms the border between the mostly-Muslim north and mostly Christian south, and the site of a deadly conflict between farmers and herders.) PDP currently control Bayelsa (and 13 other states), and APC currently controls the remaining states, including Kogi.
Daniels Igoni, The Punch (Nigeria): “APC screens six aspirants for Bayelsa gov poll”
Tunde Ososanya, Legit (Nigeria): “The Bayelsa state gubernatorial primary election screening committee of the All Progressives Congress (APC) has released the list of those cleared to contest the primary election of the party ahead of the governorship election in the state. The screening committee disqualified the immediate past Cross River state resident electoral commissioner, Dr Frankland Briyai from participating in the August 29th primaries.”
Eromosele Ebhomele, Legit (Nigeria): “The All Progressives Congress (APC) has approved the aspiration of Yahaya Bello and three others to seek the candidature of the party ahead of the governorship election in Kogi state. The party also disqualified 12 aspirants including the two sons of a former governor of the state, late Abubakar Audu.”
Tanzania Local – November 24, 2019 and General – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Tanzania’s socialist Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and its predecessors have been in power since 1961. In the 2015 elections, deemed imperfect but credible by observers, John Magufuli won, and has since launched a crackdown on the opposition, media, civil society, and the private sector. The main opposition center-right Chadema, whose leader Freeman Mbowe recently spent nearly five months in prison on charges of sedition, currently holds 62 out of 384 seats in the unicameral National Assembly. Edward Lowassa, a former CCM prime minister who ran for president in 2015 as the candidate of Chadema and a coalition of other opposition parties, won 40 percent of the vote. Lowassa has since returned to CCM along with other opposition figures who have been bribed or bullied into crossing the aisle and joining the ruling party.
The Economist notes, “Today Tanzania is on the descent from patchy democracy towards slapdash dictatorship.”
Louis Kolumbia, The Citizen (Tanzania): “It’s all systems go as govt unveils civic polls details: Local government elections in Mainland Tanzania will be held on November 24, the government announced yesterday [August 23].”
Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – Early 2020 (delayed from October 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.
Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat. The political crisis has an ethnic dimension.
Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections, which are likely delayed following a July vote by the National Assembly to extend its term in office (the National Assembly’s second extension). The mandates were set to expire October 29, 2019 and have been extended for two months, so the elections that had been due in October most likely will not happen before 2020.
Moki Edwin Kindzeka, VOA: Thousands Flee Violence in Cameroon’s English-Speaking Regions”
Cheryl Hendricks and Gabriel Ngah, The Conversation: “What it would take to break the impasse in Cameroon’s deadly crisis” (Interview with Camerooonian Anglophone lawyer and activist Felix Agbor Balla Nkongho)
Chad Legislative and Local – Due 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Idriss Déby seized power in a rebellion in 1990, and although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote. Western governments, particularly France, view the Déby regime as a security partner in countering terrorism in the region, and provide military aid. Opposition activists face arrest and mistreatment. There are concerns that the regime uses counterterrorism as an excuse for suppressing legitimate political opposition.
The mandate of the current National Assembly expired in 2015, and the elections have been delayed multiple times. In 2018, President Idriss Déby announced that the elections would happen in the “first half of 2019,” without giving a date, but in May 2019, the government delayed the elections indefinitely again, citing cost. The opposition holds that the real issue is a lack of political will.
The Guardian (Nigeria): “The [Nigerian] Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has expressed its readiness to assist its counterpart from the Republic of Chad to conduct free, fair and credible parliamentary elections.”
Guinea Legislative – 2019 and Presidential – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Elections in Guinea routinely see significant delays and have historically been surrounded by ethnic tensions and violence. President Alpha Condé, a former opposition leader who came to power in 2010 following a transition from military to civilian rule, is prevented by the constitution from running for a third term in the presidential polls due in 2020. However, he wants to change the constitution to allow him to do so (which Russia is encouraging because Russian companies have mining interests in Guinea). The terms of the current legislators expired in January 2019. Condé extended their mandates, and a new election date has not been set.
Ruth Maclean, The Guardian: “’Russians have special status’: politics and mining mix in Guinea: Activist alleges Russian mining companies are given advantages in country that gets third of its revenues from the sector.”
Burundi Presidential and Legislative – May 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
In 2015, President Pierre Nkurunziza ran for a third term, which critics said was unconstitutional. Nkurunziza’s decision sparked a political crisis. The opposition boycotted the election. Nkurunziza won, but the election was marred by violence and a coup attempt. In 2018, Nkurunziza said he would step down in 2020. Burundi’s 12-year civil war ended in 2005, but violence and authoritarianism have been on the rise. Many Burundians are nervous about the upcoming polls.
Desire Nimubona, Bloomberg: “Burundi Opposition Warns of Rising Violence Ahead of 2020 Vote”
Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Following three years of protests, Ethiopia’s ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners and opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful. However, violence could threaten Abiy’s reforms.
In the 2015 elections – which were not free and fair – the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats.
Abdur Rahman Alfa Shaban, AfricaNews: “The Ethiopian parliament, the House of People’s Representatives, HoPR; today approved a new electoral bill ahead of much anticipated national polls slated for next year. Lawmakers convened in an extraordinary session to debate and pass the law which had been under construction since Abiy came into power in April 2018.”
Reuters: “Ethiopia’s opposition parties criticize election law changes….On Friday 57 opposition parties said their proposed amendments to the bill were ignored by the ruling party, who currently hold all parliamentary seats.”
Central African Republic General – December 27, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
The Central African Republic (CAR) faces a humanitarian crisis and a crisis of governance. Russia has ramped up its political and military involvement in exchange for mining rights. Last year, three Russian journalists from a newspaper critical of the Kremlin were killed in the country while they were investigating the role of Russian military contractor in exploiting the CAR’s mineral wealth.
Mathieu Olivier, The Africa Report: “Russia’s murky business dealings in the Central African Republic: Gold, diamonds, weapons, money laundering, and all kinds of trafficking… the Russian presence in the Central African Republic gives rise to many fantasies, some wrong, but often correct.”
Ghana Presidential and Legislative – December 7, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Ghana’s two main political parties, the center-right New Patriotic Party (NPP) and center-left National Democratic Congress (NDC), have alternated stints in power since Ghana began holding multiparty elections. Ghana is often cited as a success story for democratic transition, despite some lingering issues. Although each party has bases of support in certain regions or ethnic groups, the parties define themselves by ideology and campaign on issues. In the 2016 presidential polls, NPP’s Nana Akufo-Addo defeated incumbent John Mahama from the NDC following a contentious campaign. Eleven parties competed in the parliamentary elections, but
only the NPP and the NDC won seats, with the NPP winning a majority.
APA: “Ghana: Opposition NDC vote in parliamentary primaries”
GhanaWeb: “A total of 524 candidates [contested] the internal polls in 157 constituencies out of 275 to represent the largest opposition party in Parliament in the next general elections. Thirty-nine Members of Parliament [went] unopposed. Delegates in 71 constituencies will later to go to the polls to elect their candidates.”
Uganda General – February 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Partly Free this year) – Government Type: Presidential Republic
President Yoweri Museveni has held power since 1986 and looks likely to seek a sixth term. Musaveni is seen as an ally to Western governments on counterterrorism issues, despite concerns about human rights and civil liberties.
Musaveni’s National Resistance Movement (NRM), an authoritarian nationalist party, was originally a militia involved in the struggle to topple the government in 1986. In the last presidential election in 2016 (which was marred by an uneven playing field and government use of state resources and security services for political purposes), Kizza Besigye of the main opposition center-right Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) won 35.6 percent, coming in second. NRM holds 293 out of 426 seats in parliament, and FDC holds 36 (other opposition parties hold 21).
Jonathan Kamoga, The East African: “Uganda: Civil Society’s Unease Over Uganda’s Election: When Ugandans troop to the polling stations in the 2021 general election, they may as well be walking into a battlefield, warns a report, but this could be averted if a national dialogue is held and the political playing field is levelled.”
The Citizen (Tanzania): “Bobi Wine lays out his agenda for Uganda”
Past Elections
Namibia Oshakati East by-election – August 24 and Presidential and Legislative – November 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Namibia is a free, stable democracy. Since independence from South Africa in 1990, Namibian politics have been dominated by the socialist SWAPO, an independence movement-turned-political party. In the 2014 elections, judged free, fair, and credible by observers, SWAPO’s presidential candidate, Hage Geingob, won 87 percent of the vote. The party also won 80 percent of votes in the legislative elections. The Economist Intelligence Unit predicts that SWAPO will win the 2019 elections but its majority will decrease.
The Namibian: “Double-vote blunder in Oshakati by-election”
Hileni Nembwaya and Sakeus Iikela, The Namibian: “The Election Commission of Namibia’s chief electoral officer, Theo Mujoro, says the incident during the Oshakati East constituency by-election in which a woman voted twice has nothing to do with whether the electronic voting machines can be manipulated. Mujoro said the incident was simply a human error by electoral officials, and had nothing to do with the legitimacy of the electronic voting machines (EVMs).”
Somalia Jubaland State Presidential and Parliament (indirect) – August 2019 and Federal Parliamentary and Presidential – due 2020 or 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Somalia hasn’t held direct elections in 50 years at the federal level, and at the state level, only the de facto independent Somaliland holds one-person-one-vote polls. The other states have electoral colleges with clan elders as electors. Somalia has federal elections due in 2020 or 2021, and hopes to move toward a one-person-one-vote model. However, the August Jubaland elections are not direct (which is why they are not on our big map). Politics – and conflict – throughout Somalia is largely based on clans, but efforts have been made to move toward a politics based on political parties. The terrorist group al-Shabab remains a menace.
Jubaland is rich in natural resources, raising the stakes of the election. Kismayo, the capital of Jubaland, this month saw the biggest terrorist attack since an action led by Kenyan soldiers ousted al-Shabab from the city in 2012. The election became source of tension between Kenya, which backed incumbent, and Ethiopia, which has grown closer to the government in Mogadishu. Kenya views the incumbent, Ahmed Mohamed Madobe, as an important security partner, but he has a frosty relationship with the central government in Mogadishu (which is looking to bring Jubaland and other states under closer central control).
Abdiqani Hassan, Reuters: “The president of Jubbaland, a Somali region critical to East Africa’s fight against the Islamist militants of al Shabaab, won a new term on Thursday, highlighting a growing rift between the federal government and its semi-autonomous states.”
Morris Kiruga, The Africa Report: “Regional interests shaped Thursday’s elections in Somalia’s semi-autonomous region of Jubaland, with two people claiming to have won the presidency.”
Macharia Munene, The Standard (Kenya): “….Federal Republic of Somalia President Mohammed Abdullahi Mohammed alias Farmajo refused to accept Madobe’s victory. Farmajo seemingly organised his own voting in which Madobe supposedly lost. Subsequently, Jubbaland has theoretically two state governments; a recipe for instability in the region.”
Fred Oluoch, The East African: “States vs central govt: Why the world was glued to Jubbaland election”
Liberia By-Elections – July 29, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
When President George Weah, a former footballer, was elected in 2017, Liberia saw its first peaceful transition of power since 1944. The country holds elections to the Senate in 2020.
Henry Karmo, Front Page Africa: “The ruling Coalition for Democratic Change (CDC) says it will not feed a candidate in the pending senatorial by-election in Grand Cape Mount County. Residents of the county will go to by-election to fill the vacancy created as a result of the death of Senator Edward Dagosseh who died early June this year.”
Moses Garzeawu, VOA: “Liberian President George Weah has proposed reducing term lengths for members of the executive and legislative branches of government. Under his plan, the president and representatives would serve five years instead of six, while senators would sit for seven years rather than nine.”
Malawi Tripartite (Presidential, Legislative, Local) – May 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
A series of protests (which are ongoing) followed Malawi’s May 2019 elections. Protesters alleged that Peter Mutharika’s re-election was fraudulent, dubbing it the “Tipp-Ex Election” after a popular brand of correction fluid that they allege officials used to change the results. However, the use of Tipp-Ex might not actually have been the smoking gun that it looks like. The opposition is also challenging the election results in court.
Malawi’s last few elections have taken place in a tense political environment, and it is one of the poorest countries in the world. Political parties are weak and based more on personality than ideology.
Liesl Louw-Vaudran and Ringisai Chikohomero, ISS Today/The Daily Maverick: “Tippex election can’t erase Malawians’ dissatisfaction: Malawi’s opposition and civil society are ready for more protests over the presidential poll results.”
Updated August 27, 2019
BBC (video): “Malawi bans all demonstrations”
Abdur Rahman Alfa Shaban, AfricaNews: “The order imposes a 14-day moratorium against opposition demonstrations in all parts of the country. Registrar of the High Court and Supreme Court of Appeal, Agnes Patemba confirmed the development in an interview to local media outlets.”
Benin Parliamentary – April 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Benin was previously a model democracy in the region, but the April 2019 parliamentary elections changed that. Opposition candidates were barred from running, and security forces opened fire on protesters.
Vatican News: “The Bishops of Benin say they are continuing with their mediation efforts to resolve the political crisis in the country that followed disputed elections in April. Their statement comes after some media outlets reported that the Church had withdrawn from negotiations.”
Justice Nwafor, International Policy Digest: “With Clampdown on Dissent, Africa’s Development May Take longer”
Democratic Republic of the Congo General – December 30, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
The DRC’s December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu. When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi. The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country, but both have returned.
DW: “DR Congo names new government after 7-month delay. Most members of the new executive have been drawn from former president Joseph Kabila’s Common Front for Congo. DRC will now have a female vice prime minister, minister for foreign affairs and minister for planning.”
Africa Times: “Congolese refugees who fled to Angola to escape fighting between armed groups and military forces in 2017 are beginning to return home, according to Angolan officials and UNHCR, the United Nations refugee agency.”
BBC: “Amazon fires: Angola and DR Congo ‘have more blazes’”
The Year Ahead: Africa
Guinea legislative (overdue – mandates of current legislators expired January 13 – date not set for new elections); Chad legislative (originally due in 2015 but have been delayed several times – unclear when they will. actually happen); Togo local by-elections (August 15); Namibia Oshakati East by-election (August 24); Zimbabwe by-elections (September Botswana parliamentary (October); Cameroon parliamentary (due October but delayed – new date not set); Mozambique presidential, legislative, provincial (October 15); Madagascar communal (due October 28 but postponed – new date not set); Somalia, Somaliland congressional and local (November 1, 2019 – tentative); Guinea-Bissau presidential (November 24); Namibia presidential and legislative (November 27); Mauritius legislative (December); Senegal local (December 1); Ethiopia parliamentary (May); Burundi presidential and legislative (May 20); Mali Parliamentary (due June but postponed indefinitely)
Campaigning during the Democratic Republic of Congo’s 2011 elections. The DRC just announced a new government eight months after the December 2018 elections. Photo credit: Flickr/MONUSCO Photos (CC BY-SA 2.0)
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