Upcoming Elections
Papua New Guinea Local – July 20-25, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Papua New Guinea’s politics are chaotic, and no single party has ever commanded a majority in parliament. Coalitions shift frequently. James Marape became prime minister in May 2018 when former prime minister Peter O’Neill lost a no-confidence vote after being in power for eight years. It is unclear whether Marape will effectively address Papua New Guinea’s continuing problems of corruption and mismanagement of the economy. For the local elections, voters will elect representatives to 29 urban and 302 rural local level government assemblies.
Radio New Zealand: “Papua New Guinea’s government has warned against kidnappings and bribery in local level government elections. While the elections are approaching an end, there have been widespread allegations of kidnappings, bribery and other malpractices around polling in the Highlands.”
Radio New Zealand: “Local government elections in Papua New Guinea have reportedly been extended by a week to allow for the completion of voting and counting in remote areas.”
New Zealand Local – October 12, 2019 and Parliamentary – by November 21, 2020 (likely to be earlier)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
John Weekes, Stuff: “The race is on but the contenders are sluggish and there’s not even a starting gun to alert anybody when the contest truly starts. Auckland’s latest mayoral campaign has been a dull affair so far. In fairness, even the city’s most dramatic civic scandal in 2013 only bubbled up after the race was run.”
RNZ: “Former prime minister Sir John Key has reminded National it needs to find potential coalition partners for next year’s election. And he has suggested New Zealand First may not be one of them, saying its leader Winston Peters had shown his colours.”
Craig McCulloch, RNZ: “Simon Bridges: ‘NZ can’t afford another three years of this government’: National leader Simon Bridges has opened the party’s annual conference with a rousing speech, giving a preview of the Opposition’s campaign strategy for next year’s election.”
Jamie Ensor, Newshub: “Acting Prime Minister Winston Peters has fired a scalding condemnation at pollsters after his party New Zealand First dropped below the five percent threshold in the latest Colmar Brunton poll.”
Sandeep Singh, RNZ: “Should New Zealand do away with a three-year parliamentary term?”
India, Haryana State and Maharashtra State Assemblies – October 2019 or November 2019 and Jharkhand State Assembly – November 2019 (plus a Lok Sabha by-election August 5, 2019 in Vellore)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
India has 29 states and seven union territories. Indian states are big – Maharashtra, whose capital is Mumbai, has 112 million people, Haryana 25 million, and Jharkhand 32 million. Coalitions headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently control all three state legislatures. The BJP won a massive victory in elections to the Lok Sabha, India’s national parliament, earlier this year, giving it a second term in power as the majority party able to govern without coalition partners, in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – did well in a series of state elections late last year but is reeling from the whiplash of defeat in the Lok Sabha polls. The state elections are happening in the context of a renewed push from Modi to institute “one nation, one election” – a proposal to hold state elections at the same time as elections to the Lok Sabha.
Times of India: “Nationalist Congress Party chief Sharad Pawar on Sunday said his party and the Congress had come to an agreement on 240 of the 288 Assembly seats in Maharashtra, polls for which are scheduled for later this year.”
PTI: “After fall of govt, Congress starts preparation for Karnataka assembly bypolls”
Chandrashekar Srinivasan, NDTV: “Former Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah met Prime Minister Narendra Modi today and asked him to conduct elections in the state by the end of the year. Mr Abdullah, who was part of a National Conference delegation that included his father Farooq Abdullah, another former chief minister, also urged PM Modi to refrain from upsetting the fragile situation in the Kashmir Valley.”
Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. However, a series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets – could boost the pro-democracy camp.
Scott Simon, NPR: “Thousands in Hong Kong continue to protest, demanding direct elections and a dissolution of the current legislature.”
The Economist: “How long can Hong Kong’s protests continue? From marches to rallies and sit-ins to strikes, calendars are filling up. Some democrats insist they must continue until the autumn, when Hong Kongers will have a turn at the ballot box, in elections for district councils, the lowest level of government.”
Mary Hui, Quartz: “The leader of Hong Kong’s leaderless protest movement is a philosophy student behind bars”
Andreas Fulda, Foreign Policy: “Beijing Is Weaponizing Nationalism Against Hong Kongers: Hong Kong’s unique identity threatens Xi Jinping’s rhetoric of greatness.”
Russell Hsiao, Jamestown Foundation’s China Brief: “A Preliminary Survey of CCP Influence Efforts in Hong Kong”
Suzanne Pepper, Hong Kong Free Press: “Hong Kong protesters are winning without even knowing it. But what next for the movement?”
Nepal By-Elections – December 30, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Khabar News: “The Election Commission of Nepal (ECN) on Friday fixed December 30 for by-elections. According to ECN, by-elections will be held for some 50 vacant posts of people’s representatives lying vacant in the House of Representatives, Provincial Assembly and local units.”
Taiwan Presidential and Legislative – January 11, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republi
Taiwan has a robust democracy. The two main parties are President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT, founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate. Tsai won the DPP presidential primary, and the KMT holds its own primary next month. Candidates include Terry Guo, Taiwan’s richest man, and Beijing’s choice, Han Kuo-yu, the populist mayor of Kaohsiung, a major port city in the south. The DPP currently controls the Legislative Yuan. Last year’s local elections swept the KMT back into many local offices that they had lost during the 2014 local elections – with some interference from China. China is expected to attempt to influence the upcoming elections as well.
Ralph Jennings, VOA: “China is using media, money and more to influence the January 2020 presidential election in Taiwan, a self-ruled democracy that Beijing calls its own, officials and experts on the island assert.”
Jason Pan, Taipei Times: “Top Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) officials during a visit with the Dalai Lama in Dharamsala, India, vowed to forge closer cooperation with the exiled Tibetan government and to form an international “Silk Road of Democracy” (民主絲路) to fight Chinese oppression.”
Shi Jiangtao, South China Morning Post: “KMT presidential candidate Han Kuo-yu says 2020 election will be life-or-death battle for Taiwan. Beijing-friendly populist mayor [of Kaohsiung] is officially nominated by the opposition Kuomintang to challenge Tsai Ing-wen in January.”
Reuters: “The mayor of Taipei said on Thursday he will form a political party to run in Taiwan’s 2020 elections, a move that could complicate President Tsai Ing-wen’s re-election and shake up the political landscape amid heightened tension with China….Another who could complicate Tsai’s bid for re-election is Foxconn founder Terry Gou. Gou lost the presidential nomination for the China-friendly opposition Kuomintang (KMT) last month but has not announced whether he will run as an independent in 2020.”
Lawrence Chung, South China Morning Post: “Taiwan election wild card Ko Wen-je insists top priority is winning seats in legislature – not presidential vote. Taipei mayor says main target for newly formed Taiwanese People’s Party will be parliamentary election to be held on same day as presidential election”
Chris Horton, New York Times: “The Chinese government announced on Wednesday that it would temporarily stop issuing individual travel permits to Taiwan, a move that appears intended to influence the politics of the self-governing island ahead of a coming election.”
Tim Culpan, Bloomberg: “China Waves a Big Stick Again: Crude attempts to intimidate Taiwan voters have failed in the past, and the timing on this occasion is particularly bad.”
Philippines Village Elections –May 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Sofia Tomacruz, Rappler: “Comelec [Philippines election commission] to ‘slow down’ preparations for 2020 barangay, SK [village and youth council] polls. This follows President Rodrigo Duterte’s call for Congress to postpone the May 2020 elections to 2022 instead….Prior to this, barangay and SK elections were already postponed twice under the Duterte administration.”
The Economist: “Rodrigo Duterte is losing interest in creating a federal Philippines. Federalism is hard to define and Congress hard to corral”
Xave Gregorio, CNN Philippines: “ President Rodrigo Duterte’s daughter, Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte, said she will ask for divine guidance on whether or not to run for president in the 2022 general elections.”
Indonesia Regional – September 23, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Antara News: “A total of 270 regions in Indonesia, comprising nine provinces, 224 districts, and 37 cities, will hold regional elections on September 23, 2020.”
Yustinus Paat, Jakarta Globe: “Indonesia’s election organizing agency expressed support for a proposal by the Corruption Eradication Commission, or KPK, to ban graft convicts from nominating themselves as candidates in next year’s regional elections.”
Amy Chew, South China Morning Post: “Indonesia’s largest moderate Muslim organisation Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) is poised to expand its influence in President Joko Widodo’s new government, following the country’s divisive election campaign dominated by explosive rhetoric on religion and ethnicity.”
Endy M. Bayuni, The Jakarta Post: “The results of the 2019 general election in April confirmed that the widely touted fear on the rise of Islamism in Indonesia was unfounded. Most voters didn’t go for the Islamist agenda, particularly transforming the country into an Islamic state or installing sharia as the law of the land.”
Anna Coren, Jane Sit and Helen Regan, CNN: “President Joko Widodo says Islam in Indonesia is ‘tolerant’ as rights groups warn of rising fundamentalism”
Burma Parliamentary – Expected late 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Burma, also called Myanmar, seemed to be moving toward democracy following the country’s first credible, relatively free elections in 2015, which swept Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) to power following decades of military dictatorship. Once held up by the global community as a paragon of moral authority for giving up her own freedom in the fight for democracy, Suu Kyi’s tenure as the country’s de facto leader has disappointed many. Burma still has hundreds of political prisoners, including many who were arrested after the NLD came to power. Ethnic conflicts continue between the dominant Burmans, who comprise roughly 60 percent of the population, and different minority groups. The crisis in Rakhine or Arakan State with the Muslim Rohingya, which some have called a genocide, has created 700,000 refugees in neighboring Bangladesh and 128,000 internally displaced people. During by-elections in 2018, the NLD won seven out of 13 seats, but lost five out of six in non-Burman areas.
Zachary Abuza, War on the Rocks: “The security challenges of the intractable Rohingya crisis….While diplomatic pressure will continue, it will be insufficient to alter Naypyidaw’s behavior, especially in the run-up to the 2020 elections. Fanning the flames of hyper-Buddhist nationalism against the Muslim Rohingya is good politics in Myanmar.”
Kyaw Htun Naing, Radio Free Asia: “Ultranationalist Myanmar Monk Group Declared Illegal by Top Buddhist Organization”
Malaysia Local – TBD and General – by 2022
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
In last year’s parliamentary elections, Mahathir Mohamed led his Pakatan Haratan (Alliance of Hope) party to a surprise victory over the Barisan Nasional coalition and its primary member, United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which had been in power since Malaysia’s 1957 independence.
Amy Chew, Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter: “Malaysia’s Mahathir has no
interest in building a dynasty. Speculation Mukhriz Mahathir could take over from
his father is just that – Anwar Ibrahim is anointed.”
Ooi Kee Beng, Channel News Asia: “Commentary: Malaysia’s lowering of the voting age and the huge forces fueling the change. The Reformasi movement will now be continued by the next generation of Malaysian youths, says Penang Institute’s Ooi Kee Beng.”
Singapore General – April 2021 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
People’s Action Party, co-founded by Lee Kuan Yew Singapore’s first prime minister, has been in power since 1959. While elections aren’t rigged in the classic sense (no stuffed ballot boxes), they take place in a context that effectively prevents the opposition from actually taking power, and the opposition has not historically run to actually win – their pitch to voters has been promises to provide a check on the PAP. The government uses a variety of tactics– including libel lawsuits, influence over the media, and laws that restrict political speech – to hamstring the opposition, while arguing that Singaporeans support PAP because it has governed competently. The 2015 elections gave PAP 83 out of the 89 elected seats in parliament. The next elections are due in 2021, but Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (Lee Kuan Yew’s son) has hinted that he would call early elections.
John Geddie and Fathin Ungku, Reuters: “The Singapore prime minister’s estranged brother has thrown his support behind a newly-formed opposition party in an intriguing twist ahead of elections expected to be held as soon as this year.”
Jewel Stolarchuk, The Independent (Singapore): “Singapore Democratic Party (SDP) secretary-general Chee Soon Juan has hit out at the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) in a video he published on social media, this week. Speaking in Cantonese, the opposition politician criticised the ruling party’s policies and asserted that the PAP will give voters a ‘chicken wing’ before elections only to take back the “whole chicken” after the elections are over.”
The Economist: “Even Singapore’s ruling party struggles to plan for everything. An economic downturn and a political handover sow uncertainty.”
Joshua Kurlantzick, Council on Foreign Relations’ Asia Unbound: “But overall, it remains unclear whether China’s soft and sharp power approaches to the city-state are actually producing a Singaporean populace with more favorable views of China, an environment in Singapore that would make the city-state more willing to go along with Chinese foreign policy aims, or really any shift in the receiving state (Singapore)’s long-term views because of China’s actions.”
Past Elections
Japan Legislative (half of upper house) – July 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Shinzo Abe’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) sought to gain a two-thirds majority in the upper house (which it already held in the lower house with coalition partner Komeito, a Buddhist religious party) in order to revisit and possibly amend Japan’s pacifist constitution. LDP and Komeito did maintain their majority in the upper house, but fell short of the super-majority.
The Mainichi: “Newly appointed president of the House of Councillors, Akiko Santo, expressed her hope for accelerating debate on amending Japan’s postwar Constitution during a press conference on Aug. 1.”
Daisuke Minami, The Diplomat: “Is Populism Finally Coming to Japan? The success of the leftist Reiwa Shinsengumi marks a turning point in Japanese politics.”
BBC: “Japan’s first severely disabled lawmakers join parliament”
Mari Miura, New York Times: “Japan’s Leader Wants to Empower Women. Just Not in His Party. Shinzo Abe isn’t keen on parity in politics, despite the economic costs of gender inequality.”
Cambodia General – July 29, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Mu Sochua, The Diplomat: “The Dark Year Since Cambodia’s 2018 Election: The year since the controversial poll brought growing repression at home and further isolation abroad.”
Radio Free Asia: “The U.S. Embassy in Phnom Penh marked the first anniversary Tuesday of national elections conducted under a ban of Cambodia’s main opposition party with a statement calling the vote ‘deeply flawed’ and urging Hun Sen’s regime to ‘take tangible actions to restore democracy.’”
Radio Free Asia: “Cambodian authorities Tuesday arrested Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP) activist Mai Hongsreang, marking the 14th such arrest of activists associated with the banned political party.”
Asia This Week – August 2, 2019
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Last Updated: August 10, 2019 by 21votes
August 2, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Asia and the Pacific on Fridays. Click the map pins.
Papua New Guinea Local – July 20-25, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Papua New Guinea’s politics are chaotic, and no single party has ever commanded a majority in parliament. Coalitions shift frequently. James Marape became prime minister in May 2018 when former prime minister Peter O’Neill lost a no-confidence vote after being in power for eight years. It is unclear whether Marape will effectively address Papua New Guinea’s continuing problems of corruption and mismanagement of the economy. For the local elections, voters will elect representatives to 29 urban and 302 rural local level government assemblies.
New Zealand Local – October 12, 2019 and Parliamentary – by November 21, 2020 (likely to be earlier)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
India, Haryana State and Maharashtra State Assemblies – October 2019 or November 2019 and Jharkhand State Assembly – November 2019 (plus a Lok Sabha by-election August 5, 2019 in Vellore)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
India has 29 states and seven union territories. Indian states are big – Maharashtra, whose capital is Mumbai, has 112 million people, Haryana 25 million, and Jharkhand 32 million. Coalitions headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently control all three state legislatures. The BJP won a massive victory in elections to the Lok Sabha, India’s national parliament, earlier this year, giving it a second term in power as the majority party able to govern without coalition partners, in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – did well in a series of state elections late last year but is reeling from the whiplash of defeat in the Lok Sabha polls. The state elections are happening in the context of a renewed push from Modi to institute “one nation, one election” – a proposal to hold state elections at the same time as elections to the Lok Sabha.
Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. However, a series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets – could boost the pro-democracy camp.
Nepal By-Elections - December 30, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Taiwan Presidential and Legislative – January 11, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republi
Taiwan has a robust democracy. The two main parties are President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT, founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate. Tsai won the DPP presidential primary, and the KMT holds its own primary next month. Candidates include Terry Guo, Taiwan’s richest man, and Beijing’s choice, Han Kuo-yu, the populist mayor of Kaohsiung, a major port city in the south. The DPP currently controls the Legislative Yuan. Last year’s local elections swept the KMT back into many local offices that they had lost during the 2014 local elections – with some interference from China. China is expected to attempt to influence the upcoming elections as well.
Burma Parliamentary – Expected late 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Burma, also called Myanmar, seemed to be moving toward democracy following the country’s first credible, relatively free elections in 2015, which swept Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) to power following decades of military dictatorship. Once held up by the global community as a paragon of moral authority for giving up her own freedom in the fight for democracy, Suu Kyi’s tenure as the country’s de facto leader has disappointed many. Burma still has hundreds of political prisoners, including many who were arrested after the NLD came to power. Ethnic conflicts continue between the dominant Burmans, who comprise roughly 60 percent of the population, and different minority groups. The crisis in Rakhine or Arakan State with the Muslim Rohingya, which some have called a genocide, has created 700,000 refugees in neighboring Bangladesh and 128,000 internally displaced people. During by-elections in 2018, the NLD won seven out of 13 seats, but lost five out of six in non-Burman areas.
Philippines Village Elections – May 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Malaysia Local – TBD and General – by 2022
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
In last year’s parliamentary elections, Mahathir Mohamed led his Pakatan Haratan (Alliance of Hope) party to a surprise victory over the Barisan Nasional coalition and its primary member, United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which had been in power since Malaysia’s 1957 independence.
Singapore General – April 2021 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
People’s Action Party, co-founded by Lee Kuan Yew Singapore’s first prime minister, has been in power since 1959. While elections aren’t rigged in the classic sense (no stuffed ballot boxes), they take place in a context that effectively prevents the opposition from actually taking power, and the opposition has not historically run to actually win – their pitch to voters has been promises to provide a check on the PAP. The government uses a variety of tactics– including libel lawsuits, influence over the media, and laws that restrict political speech – to hamstring the opposition, while arguing that Singaporeans support PAP because it has governed competently. The 2015 elections gave PAP 83 out of the 89 elected seats in parliament. The next elections are due in 2021, but Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (Lee Kuan Yew’s son) has hinted that he would call early elections.
Japan Legislative (half of upper house) – July 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Shinzo Abe’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) sought to gain a two-thirds majority in the upper house (which it already held in the lower house with coalition partner Komeito, a Buddhist religious party) in order to revisit and possibly amend Japan’s pacifist constitution. LDP and Komeito did maintain their majority in the upper house, but fell short of the super-majority.
Cambodia General – July 29, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Indonesia Regional - September 23, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Upcoming Elections
Papua New Guinea Local – July 20-25, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Papua New Guinea’s politics are chaotic, and no single party has ever commanded a majority in parliament. Coalitions shift frequently. James Marape became prime minister in May 2018 when former prime minister Peter O’Neill lost a no-confidence vote after being in power for eight years. It is unclear whether Marape will effectively address Papua New Guinea’s continuing problems of corruption and mismanagement of the economy. For the local elections, voters will elect representatives to 29 urban and 302 rural local level government assemblies.
Radio New Zealand: “Papua New Guinea’s government has warned against kidnappings and bribery in local level government elections. While the elections are approaching an end, there have been widespread allegations of kidnappings, bribery and other malpractices around polling in the Highlands.”
Radio New Zealand: “Local government elections in Papua New Guinea have reportedly been extended by a week to allow for the completion of voting and counting in remote areas.”
New Zealand Local – October 12, 2019 and Parliamentary – by November 21, 2020 (likely to be earlier)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
John Weekes, Stuff: “The race is on but the contenders are sluggish and there’s not even a starting gun to alert anybody when the contest truly starts. Auckland’s latest mayoral campaign has been a dull affair so far. In fairness, even the city’s most dramatic civic scandal in 2013 only bubbled up after the race was run.”
RNZ: “Former prime minister Sir John Key has reminded National it needs to find potential coalition partners for next year’s election. And he has suggested New Zealand First may not be one of them, saying its leader Winston Peters had shown his colours.”
Craig McCulloch, RNZ: “Simon Bridges: ‘NZ can’t afford another three years of this government’: National leader Simon Bridges has opened the party’s annual conference with a rousing speech, giving a preview of the Opposition’s campaign strategy for next year’s election.”
Jamie Ensor, Newshub: “Acting Prime Minister Winston Peters has fired a scalding condemnation at pollsters after his party New Zealand First dropped below the five percent threshold in the latest Colmar Brunton poll.”
Sandeep Singh, RNZ: “Should New Zealand do away with a three-year parliamentary term?”
India, Haryana State and Maharashtra State Assemblies – October 2019 or November 2019 and Jharkhand State Assembly – November 2019 (plus a Lok Sabha by-election August 5, 2019 in Vellore)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
India has 29 states and seven union territories. Indian states are big – Maharashtra, whose capital is Mumbai, has 112 million people, Haryana 25 million, and Jharkhand 32 million. Coalitions headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently control all three state legislatures. The BJP won a massive victory in elections to the Lok Sabha, India’s national parliament, earlier this year, giving it a second term in power as the majority party able to govern without coalition partners, in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – did well in a series of state elections late last year but is reeling from the whiplash of defeat in the Lok Sabha polls. The state elections are happening in the context of a renewed push from Modi to institute “one nation, one election” – a proposal to hold state elections at the same time as elections to the Lok Sabha.
Times of India: “Nationalist Congress Party chief Sharad Pawar on Sunday said his party and the Congress had come to an agreement on 240 of the 288 Assembly seats in Maharashtra, polls for which are scheduled for later this year.”
PTI: “After fall of govt, Congress starts preparation for Karnataka assembly bypolls”
Chandrashekar Srinivasan, NDTV: “Former Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah met Prime Minister Narendra Modi today and asked him to conduct elections in the state by the end of the year. Mr Abdullah, who was part of a National Conference delegation that included his father Farooq Abdullah, another former chief minister, also urged PM Modi to refrain from upsetting the fragile situation in the Kashmir Valley.”
Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. However, a series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets – could boost the pro-democracy camp.
Scott Simon, NPR: “Thousands in Hong Kong continue to protest, demanding direct elections and a dissolution of the current legislature.”
The Economist: “How long can Hong Kong’s protests continue? From marches to rallies and sit-ins to strikes, calendars are filling up. Some democrats insist they must continue until the autumn, when Hong Kongers will have a turn at the ballot box, in elections for district councils, the lowest level of government.”
Mary Hui, Quartz: “The leader of Hong Kong’s leaderless protest movement is a philosophy student behind bars”
Andreas Fulda, Foreign Policy: “Beijing Is Weaponizing Nationalism Against Hong Kongers: Hong Kong’s unique identity threatens Xi Jinping’s rhetoric of greatness.”
Russell Hsiao, Jamestown Foundation’s China Brief: “A Preliminary Survey of CCP Influence Efforts in Hong Kong”
Suzanne Pepper, Hong Kong Free Press: “Hong Kong protesters are winning without even knowing it. But what next for the movement?”
Nepal By-Elections – December 30, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Khabar News: “The Election Commission of Nepal (ECN) on Friday fixed December 30 for by-elections. According to ECN, by-elections will be held for some 50 vacant posts of people’s representatives lying vacant in the House of Representatives, Provincial Assembly and local units.”
Taiwan Presidential and Legislative – January 11, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republi
Taiwan has a robust democracy. The two main parties are President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT, founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate. Tsai won the DPP presidential primary, and the KMT holds its own primary next month. Candidates include Terry Guo, Taiwan’s richest man, and Beijing’s choice, Han Kuo-yu, the populist mayor of Kaohsiung, a major port city in the south. The DPP currently controls the Legislative Yuan. Last year’s local elections swept the KMT back into many local offices that they had lost during the 2014 local elections – with some interference from China. China is expected to attempt to influence the upcoming elections as well.
Ralph Jennings, VOA: “China is using media, money and more to influence the January 2020 presidential election in Taiwan, a self-ruled democracy that Beijing calls its own, officials and experts on the island assert.”
Jason Pan, Taipei Times: “Top Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) officials during a visit with the Dalai Lama in Dharamsala, India, vowed to forge closer cooperation with the exiled Tibetan government and to form an international “Silk Road of Democracy” (民主絲路) to fight Chinese oppression.”
Shi Jiangtao, South China Morning Post: “KMT presidential candidate Han Kuo-yu says 2020 election will be life-or-death battle for Taiwan. Beijing-friendly populist mayor [of Kaohsiung] is officially nominated by the opposition Kuomintang to challenge Tsai Ing-wen in January.”
Reuters: “The mayor of Taipei said on Thursday he will form a political party to run in Taiwan’s 2020 elections, a move that could complicate President Tsai Ing-wen’s re-election and shake up the political landscape amid heightened tension with China….Another who could complicate Tsai’s bid for re-election is Foxconn founder Terry Gou. Gou lost the presidential nomination for the China-friendly opposition Kuomintang (KMT) last month but has not announced whether he will run as an independent in 2020.”
Lawrence Chung, South China Morning Post: “Taiwan election wild card Ko Wen-je insists top priority is winning seats in legislature – not presidential vote. Taipei mayor says main target for newly formed Taiwanese People’s Party will be parliamentary election to be held on same day as presidential election”
Chris Horton, New York Times: “The Chinese government announced on Wednesday that it would temporarily stop issuing individual travel permits to Taiwan, a move that appears intended to influence the politics of the self-governing island ahead of a coming election.”
Tim Culpan, Bloomberg: “China Waves a Big Stick Again: Crude attempts to intimidate Taiwan voters have failed in the past, and the timing on this occasion is particularly bad.”
Philippines Village Elections –May 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Sofia Tomacruz, Rappler: “Comelec [Philippines election commission] to ‘slow down’ preparations for 2020 barangay, SK [village and youth council] polls. This follows President Rodrigo Duterte’s call for Congress to postpone the May 2020 elections to 2022 instead….Prior to this, barangay and SK elections were already postponed twice under the Duterte administration.”
The Economist: “Rodrigo Duterte is losing interest in creating a federal Philippines. Federalism is hard to define and Congress hard to corral”
Xave Gregorio, CNN Philippines: “ President Rodrigo Duterte’s daughter, Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte, said she will ask for divine guidance on whether or not to run for president in the 2022 general elections.”
Indonesia Regional – September 23, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Antara News: “A total of 270 regions in Indonesia, comprising nine provinces, 224 districts, and 37 cities, will hold regional elections on September 23, 2020.”
Yustinus Paat, Jakarta Globe: “Indonesia’s election organizing agency expressed support for a proposal by the Corruption Eradication Commission, or KPK, to ban graft convicts from nominating themselves as candidates in next year’s regional elections.”
Amy Chew, South China Morning Post: “Indonesia’s largest moderate Muslim organisation Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) is poised to expand its influence in President Joko Widodo’s new government, following the country’s divisive election campaign dominated by explosive rhetoric on religion and ethnicity.”
Endy M. Bayuni, The Jakarta Post: “The results of the 2019 general election in April confirmed that the widely touted fear on the rise of Islamism in Indonesia was unfounded. Most voters didn’t go for the Islamist agenda, particularly transforming the country into an Islamic state or installing sharia as the law of the land.”
Anna Coren, Jane Sit and Helen Regan, CNN: “President Joko Widodo says Islam in Indonesia is ‘tolerant’ as rights groups warn of rising fundamentalism”
Burma Parliamentary – Expected late 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Burma, also called Myanmar, seemed to be moving toward democracy following the country’s first credible, relatively free elections in 2015, which swept Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) to power following decades of military dictatorship. Once held up by the global community as a paragon of moral authority for giving up her own freedom in the fight for democracy, Suu Kyi’s tenure as the country’s de facto leader has disappointed many. Burma still has hundreds of political prisoners, including many who were arrested after the NLD came to power. Ethnic conflicts continue between the dominant Burmans, who comprise roughly 60 percent of the population, and different minority groups. The crisis in Rakhine or Arakan State with the Muslim Rohingya, which some have called a genocide, has created 700,000 refugees in neighboring Bangladesh and 128,000 internally displaced people. During by-elections in 2018, the NLD won seven out of 13 seats, but lost five out of six in non-Burman areas.
Zachary Abuza, War on the Rocks: “The security challenges of the intractable Rohingya crisis….While diplomatic pressure will continue, it will be insufficient to alter Naypyidaw’s behavior, especially in the run-up to the 2020 elections. Fanning the flames of hyper-Buddhist nationalism against the Muslim Rohingya is good politics in Myanmar.”
Kyaw Htun Naing, Radio Free Asia: “Ultranationalist Myanmar Monk Group Declared Illegal by Top Buddhist Organization”
Malaysia Local – TBD and General – by 2022
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
In last year’s parliamentary elections, Mahathir Mohamed led his Pakatan Haratan (Alliance of Hope) party to a surprise victory over the Barisan Nasional coalition and its primary member, United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which had been in power since Malaysia’s 1957 independence.
Amy Chew, Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter: “Malaysia’s Mahathir has no
interest in building a dynasty. Speculation Mukhriz Mahathir could take over from
his father is just that – Anwar Ibrahim is anointed.”
Ooi Kee Beng, Channel News Asia: “Commentary: Malaysia’s lowering of the voting age and the huge forces fueling the change. The Reformasi movement will now be continued by the next generation of Malaysian youths, says Penang Institute’s Ooi Kee Beng.”
Singapore General – April 2021 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
People’s Action Party, co-founded by Lee Kuan Yew Singapore’s first prime minister, has been in power since 1959. While elections aren’t rigged in the classic sense (no stuffed ballot boxes), they take place in a context that effectively prevents the opposition from actually taking power, and the opposition has not historically run to actually win – their pitch to voters has been promises to provide a check on the PAP. The government uses a variety of tactics– including libel lawsuits, influence over the media, and laws that restrict political speech – to hamstring the opposition, while arguing that Singaporeans support PAP because it has governed competently. The 2015 elections gave PAP 83 out of the 89 elected seats in parliament. The next elections are due in 2021, but Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (Lee Kuan Yew’s son) has hinted that he would call early elections.
John Geddie and Fathin Ungku, Reuters: “The Singapore prime minister’s estranged brother has thrown his support behind a newly-formed opposition party in an intriguing twist ahead of elections expected to be held as soon as this year.”
Jewel Stolarchuk, The Independent (Singapore): “Singapore Democratic Party (SDP) secretary-general Chee Soon Juan has hit out at the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) in a video he published on social media, this week. Speaking in Cantonese, the opposition politician criticised the ruling party’s policies and asserted that the PAP will give voters a ‘chicken wing’ before elections only to take back the “whole chicken” after the elections are over.”
The Economist: “Even Singapore’s ruling party struggles to plan for everything. An economic downturn and a political handover sow uncertainty.”
Joshua Kurlantzick, Council on Foreign Relations’ Asia Unbound: “But overall, it remains unclear whether China’s soft and sharp power approaches to the city-state are actually producing a Singaporean populace with more favorable views of China, an environment in Singapore that would make the city-state more willing to go along with Chinese foreign policy aims, or really any shift in the receiving state (Singapore)’s long-term views because of China’s actions.”
Past Elections
Japan Legislative (half of upper house) – July 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Shinzo Abe’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) sought to gain a two-thirds majority in the upper house (which it already held in the lower house with coalition partner Komeito, a Buddhist religious party) in order to revisit and possibly amend Japan’s pacifist constitution. LDP and Komeito did maintain their majority in the upper house, but fell short of the super-majority.
The Mainichi: “Newly appointed president of the House of Councillors, Akiko Santo, expressed her hope for accelerating debate on amending Japan’s postwar Constitution during a press conference on Aug. 1.”
Daisuke Minami, The Diplomat: “Is Populism Finally Coming to Japan? The success of the leftist Reiwa Shinsengumi marks a turning point in Japanese politics.”
BBC: “Japan’s first severely disabled lawmakers join parliament”
Mari Miura, New York Times: “Japan’s Leader Wants to Empower Women. Just Not in His Party. Shinzo Abe isn’t keen on parity in politics, despite the economic costs of gender inequality.”
Cambodia General – July 29, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Mu Sochua, The Diplomat: “The Dark Year Since Cambodia’s 2018 Election: The year since the controversial poll brought growing repression at home and further isolation abroad.”
Radio Free Asia: “The U.S. Embassy in Phnom Penh marked the first anniversary Tuesday of national elections conducted under a ban of Cambodia’s main opposition party with a statement calling the vote ‘deeply flawed’ and urging Hun Sen’s regime to ‘take tangible actions to restore democracy.’”
Radio Free Asia: “Cambodian authorities Tuesday arrested Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP) activist Mai Hongsreang, marking the 14th such arrest of activists associated with the banned political party.”
The Dalai Lama with China Democracy Party chairman Liu Dongxing in 2012. The Dalai Lama is teaming up with Taiwanese officials to launch a “Silk Road of Democracy” to counter China’s sharp power and repression beyond its borders. Photo credit: Wikimedia/CDP2006 (CC BY-SA 3.0)
21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.
The Year Ahead: Asia
Japan, provincial elections throughout the year; Nauru legislative (August 14); India, Maharashtra and Haryana states (October); Tuvalu parliamentary (September 9); New Zealand local (October 12); Hong Kong local (November 24); Marshall Islands legislative (November); India Jharkhand State (November); India Jammu and Kashmir (expected late 2019); Kiribati legislative (December); Sri Lanka presidential (December 7); Nepal by-elections (December 30); Taiwan presidential and legislative (January 11); Kiribati presidential (March); South Korea parliamentary (April 15); Niue parliamentary (May); Philippines village and youth council (May); Mongolia parliamentary (June)
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Category: This Week Tags: Burma, Cambodia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Nepal, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan