Upcoming Elections
Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation
Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.
In last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.
This year, a number of genuine opposition figures sought to run for local office, but authorities tried to block their access to the ballot. In response, citizens staged a series of protests, resulting in a harsh crackdown, including the detention of prominent opposition figures such as Alexei Navalny.
CBS/AP: “Police arrest nearly 1,400 in Moscow following election board ban of opposition candidates, opposition leader hospitalized”
Max Seddon, Financial Times: “Moscow protesters face up to 8 years in prison amid Kremlin crackdown: Five demonstrators arrested on serious charges as government looks to stem opposition surge”
Matthew Bodner, Washington Post: “Analysts said the scale of the roundup — nearly 1,400 demonstrators were swept off the streets in Moscow on Saturday, according to the monitoring group OVD-Info — suggested a change in approach for a Russian elite that is increasingly concerned about political stability.”
Pavel Merzlikin, Meduza: “As Moscow City Duma opposition candidates get sent to jail for protests, will they be able to keep fighting for a place on the ballot?”
Patrick Reevell, ABC News: “Alexey Navalny, prominent critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin, was poisoned, doctor insists”
Jay Nordlinger, National Review: “What if he dies? For years now, some of us have said, ‘It’s amazing he’s still alive.’ We’re talking about Alexei Navalny, the leader of the Russian opposition. (The previous such leader, Boris Nemtsov, was murdered within sight of the Kremlin in 2015.)”
Nikolas K. Gvosdev, The National Interest: “Russians are apt to protest, particularly against poor economic performance, but what seems to make this most recent set of demonstrations different is that it is occurring against the backdrop of the first forays into defining how Russia will be governed when Vladimir Putin’s second set of presidential terms expires.”
Moldova Local – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.
The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.
Madalin Necsutu, Balkan Insight: “Parliament in Moldova has voted to abolish the so-called mixed voting system – which drew an adverse reaction from the country’s Western partners and was widely seen as favouring the former ruling party.”
Joshua Kirschenbaum and Sergiu Tofilat, German Marshall Fund: “Massive Russian Financial Flows Through Moldova Show Small Jurisdictions Matter”
Mihai-Razvan Corman, openDemocracy: “What happened in Moldova? And what should the EU do about it?”
Belarus Parliamentary – November 17, 2019 and Presidential – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)
Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.
Belsat: “One step to setting Belarus parliamentary election dates: On July 30, president Alyaksandr Lukashenka has met with Lidziya Yarmoshyna, Chairperson of the Central Election Commission (CEC), to discuss the preparation for the 2019 parliamentary elections.”
Georgia Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Georgia holds competitive but imperfect elections. The eccentric oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili runs the show from behind the scenes, despite holding no official office. Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakasvili’s pro-European, pro-NATO United National Movement. Ivanishvili’s candidate, Salome Zurabishvili, won last year’s disputed presidential election. Georgian Dream did well in by-elections in May.
In June, a series of protests broke out over Russia, which occupies 20 percent of Georgia’s territory. The government’s brutal response could harm the coalition ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.
Giorgi Lomsadze, Eurasianet: “Beset by political crisis, Georgian government strikes back at opposition. After being weakened by massive protests, Georgia’s ruling party has regained its footing and has taken several steps to neutralize government critics.”
Vestnik Kavkaza: “Lawyers of former Georgian Defence Minister Irakli Okruashvili have appealed the decision of Tbilisi City Court to deny bail to the former official regarding the June 20 unrest in Tbilisi. Okruashvili was charged with incitement to group violence during the June 20 protests, which is punishable by six to nine years in prison.”
Amy Mackinnon, Foreign Policy: “‘No Political Force in Georgia Can Be Pro-Russian and Win Elections’: A conversation with Ani Chkhikvadze, a Georgian journalist based in Washington.”
Rahim Rahimov, Jamestown Foundation’s Eurasia Daily Monitor: “Georgian-Azerbaijani Monastery Dispute and the Intersection of Local, National and International Drivers of Conflict”
Past Elections
Ukraine Snap Parliamentary – July 21, 2019 (following presidential elections earlier this year)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate largely centers on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.
Zelensky’s Servant of the People party previously did not have any seats in the Rada, but swept the elections to win an unprecedented parliamentary majority. More than half of the MPs are new.
RFE/RL: “Ukraine’s Central Election Commission says it has counted all of the ballots cast in July 21 snap parliamentary elections, confirming an overwhelming win for President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s Servant of the People party.”
Serhiy Takhmazov, Reuters: “Ukraine’s Zelenskiy opens boot camp for his 254 rookie lawmakers”
Fabrice Deprez, GlobalPost: “Pizza makers, video gamers, rockstars: Ukraine’s new parliament turns politics ‘upside down’”
Melinda Haring, Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert: “Nine Names to Watch in Ukraine’s Next Parliament”
Andreas Umland, Atlantic Council’s Ukraine Alert: “Three Easy Wins for Ukraine”
Armenia Snap Parliamentary – December 9, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
On December 9, Armenia’s snap parliamentary elections officially elected former MP and journalist Nikol Pashinyan as prime minister. The snap elections followed a series of protests that led to the resignation of Serzh Sargsyan, Armenia’s former president who became prime minister in an attempt to remain in power when faced with term limits. This has been dubbed Armenia’s “Velvet Revolution.” The Economist named Armenia country of the year for 2018.
Jonathan D. Katz, German Marshall Fund: “Three Questions with Zohrab Mnatsakanyan, Foreign Minister of Armenia”
Turkmenistan Presidential – February 12, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic (Authoritarian)
Bruce Pannier, RFE/RL: “Turkmenistan is in the news as rumors swirl about the health of the country’s president, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov. Amid reports that Berdymukhammedov is seriously ill or has even died, the citizens of Turkmenistan have bigger worries than the well-being of the leader of one of the world’s most repressive regimes.”
Adam Hug, openDemocracy: “Putting Turkmenistan under the spotlight: New research highlights the protracted economic and human rights crisis in this Central Asian state – and warns western institutions off trade promotion.”
Eurasia This Week – August 1, 2019
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Last Updated: August 9, 2019 by 21votes
August 1, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Eurasia on Thursdays. Click the map pins.
Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation
Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.
In last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.
This year, a number of genuine opposition figures sought to run for local office, but authorities tried to block their access to the ballot. In response, citizens staged a series of protests, resulting in a harsh crackdown.
Moldova Local – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.
The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.
Belarus Parliamentary – November 17, 2019 and Presidential – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)
Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.
Georgia Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Georgia holds competitive but imperfect elections. The eccentric oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili runs the show from behind the scenes, despite holding no official office. Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakasvili’s pro-European, pro-NATO United National Movement. Ivanishvili’s candidate, Salome Zurabishvili, won last year’s disputed presidential election. Georgian Dream did well in by-elections in May.
In June, a series of protests broke out over Russia, which occupies 20 percent of Georgia’s territory. The government’s brutal response could harm the coalition ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.
Ukraine Snap Parliamentary – July 21, 2019 (following presidential elections earlier this year)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate largely centers on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.
Zelensky’s Servant of the People party previously did not have any seats in the Rada, but swept the elections to win an unprecedented parliamentary majority. More than half of the MPs are new.
Armenia Snap Parliamentary – December 9, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
On December 9, Armenia’s snap parliamentary elections officially elected former MP and journalist Nikol Pashinyan as prime minister. The snap elections followed a series of protests that led to the resignation of Serzh Sargsyan, Armenia’s former president who became prime minister in an attempt to remain in power when faced with term limits. This has been dubbed Armenia’s “Velvet Revolution.” The Economist named Armenia country of the year for 2018.
Turkmenistan Presidential – February 12, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic (Authoritarian)
Upcoming Elections
Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation
Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.
In last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.
This year, a number of genuine opposition figures sought to run for local office, but authorities tried to block their access to the ballot. In response, citizens staged a series of protests, resulting in a harsh crackdown, including the detention of prominent opposition figures such as Alexei Navalny.
CBS/AP: “Police arrest nearly 1,400 in Moscow following election board ban of opposition candidates, opposition leader hospitalized”
Max Seddon, Financial Times: “Moscow protesters face up to 8 years in prison amid Kremlin crackdown: Five demonstrators arrested on serious charges as government looks to stem opposition surge”
Matthew Bodner, Washington Post: “Analysts said the scale of the roundup — nearly 1,400 demonstrators were swept off the streets in Moscow on Saturday, according to the monitoring group OVD-Info — suggested a change in approach for a Russian elite that is increasingly concerned about political stability.”
Pavel Merzlikin, Meduza: “As Moscow City Duma opposition candidates get sent to jail for protests, will they be able to keep fighting for a place on the ballot?”
Patrick Reevell, ABC News: “Alexey Navalny, prominent critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin, was poisoned, doctor insists”
Jay Nordlinger, National Review: “What if he dies? For years now, some of us have said, ‘It’s amazing he’s still alive.’ We’re talking about Alexei Navalny, the leader of the Russian opposition. (The previous such leader, Boris Nemtsov, was murdered within sight of the Kremlin in 2015.)”
Nikolas K. Gvosdev, The National Interest: “Russians are apt to protest, particularly against poor economic performance, but what seems to make this most recent set of demonstrations different is that it is occurring against the backdrop of the first forays into defining how Russia will be governed when Vladimir Putin’s second set of presidential terms expires.”
Moldova Local – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.
The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.
Madalin Necsutu, Balkan Insight: “Parliament in Moldova has voted to abolish the so-called mixed voting system – which drew an adverse reaction from the country’s Western partners and was widely seen as favouring the former ruling party.”
Joshua Kirschenbaum and Sergiu Tofilat, German Marshall Fund: “Massive Russian Financial Flows Through Moldova Show Small Jurisdictions Matter”
Mihai-Razvan Corman, openDemocracy: “What happened in Moldova? And what should the EU do about it?”
Belarus Parliamentary – November 17, 2019 and Presidential – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)
Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.
Belsat: “One step to setting Belarus parliamentary election dates: On July 30, president Alyaksandr Lukashenka has met with Lidziya Yarmoshyna, Chairperson of the Central Election Commission (CEC), to discuss the preparation for the 2019 parliamentary elections.”
Georgia Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Georgia holds competitive but imperfect elections. The eccentric oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili runs the show from behind the scenes, despite holding no official office. Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakasvili’s pro-European, pro-NATO United National Movement. Ivanishvili’s candidate, Salome Zurabishvili, won last year’s disputed presidential election. Georgian Dream did well in by-elections in May.
In June, a series of protests broke out over Russia, which occupies 20 percent of Georgia’s territory. The government’s brutal response could harm the coalition ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.
Giorgi Lomsadze, Eurasianet: “Beset by political crisis, Georgian government strikes back at opposition. After being weakened by massive protests, Georgia’s ruling party has regained its footing and has taken several steps to neutralize government critics.”
Vestnik Kavkaza: “Lawyers of former Georgian Defence Minister Irakli Okruashvili have appealed the decision of Tbilisi City Court to deny bail to the former official regarding the June 20 unrest in Tbilisi. Okruashvili was charged with incitement to group violence during the June 20 protests, which is punishable by six to nine years in prison.”
Amy Mackinnon, Foreign Policy: “‘No Political Force in Georgia Can Be Pro-Russian and Win Elections’: A conversation with Ani Chkhikvadze, a Georgian journalist based in Washington.”
Rahim Rahimov, Jamestown Foundation’s Eurasia Daily Monitor: “Georgian-Azerbaijani Monastery Dispute and the Intersection of Local, National and International Drivers of Conflict”
Past Elections
Ukraine Snap Parliamentary – July 21, 2019 (following presidential elections earlier this year)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate largely centers on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.
Zelensky’s Servant of the People party previously did not have any seats in the Rada, but swept the elections to win an unprecedented parliamentary majority. More than half of the MPs are new.
RFE/RL: “Ukraine’s Central Election Commission says it has counted all of the ballots cast in July 21 snap parliamentary elections, confirming an overwhelming win for President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s Servant of the People party.”
Serhiy Takhmazov, Reuters: “Ukraine’s Zelenskiy opens boot camp for his 254 rookie lawmakers”
Fabrice Deprez, GlobalPost: “Pizza makers, video gamers, rockstars: Ukraine’s new parliament turns politics ‘upside down’”
Melinda Haring, Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert: “Nine Names to Watch in Ukraine’s Next Parliament”
Andreas Umland, Atlantic Council’s Ukraine Alert: “Three Easy Wins for Ukraine”
Armenia Snap Parliamentary – December 9, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
On December 9, Armenia’s snap parliamentary elections officially elected former MP and journalist Nikol Pashinyan as prime minister. The snap elections followed a series of protests that led to the resignation of Serzh Sargsyan, Armenia’s former president who became prime minister in an attempt to remain in power when faced with term limits. This has been dubbed Armenia’s “Velvet Revolution.” The Economist named Armenia country of the year for 2018.
Jonathan D. Katz, German Marshall Fund: “Three Questions with Zohrab Mnatsakanyan, Foreign Minister of Armenia”
Turkmenistan Presidential – February 12, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic (Authoritarian)
Bruce Pannier, RFE/RL: “Turkmenistan is in the news as rumors swirl about the health of the country’s president, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov. Amid reports that Berdymukhammedov is seriously ill or has even died, the citizens of Turkmenistan have bigger worries than the well-being of the leader of one of the world’s most repressive regimes.”
Adam Hug, openDemocracy: “Putting Turkmenistan under the spotlight: New research highlights the protracted economic and human rights crisis in this Central Asian state – and warns western institutions off trade promotion.”
The Year Ahead: Eurasia
Russia local (September 8); Moldova local (October 20); Belarus parliamentary (November 17); Uzbekistan parliamentary (December 19); Azerbaijan local (December 27); Tajikistan parliamentary (March)
21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.
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Category: This Week Tags: Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Russia, Turkmenistan, Ukraine