Upcoming Elections
Nauru Parliamentary – August 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
The last parliamentary elections took place in 2016. Most candidates run as independents. Of the 19 MPs, 17 support the government and two are opposition. Parliament then elects the president. In 2016, President Baron Waqa was re-elected.
Tiny Nauru may only have the population of a single street in Beijing (around 13,000), but the country stands up to China, recognizing Taiwan. At a forum for Pacific nations that Nauru hosted in 2018, Waqa called the Chinese envoy “insolent” and a “bully” when the Chinese envoy attempted to interrupt the representative from Tuvalu, another tiny Pacific nation that also recognizes Taiwan. Waqa laterdoubled down, demanding that China apologize for its “arrogance.”
RNZ: “Former minister aiming for Nauru parliament return: A former Nauru cabinet minister, who hopes to be re-elected in the national election next month, wants to see the parliamentary system strengthened.”
RNZ Pacific/Pacnews: “A former member of parliament in Nauru, campaigning to return to parliament in next month’s election, claims bribery is rife among candidates. Squire Jeremiah said it is commonplace for constituents to receive motorcycles or kitchen whiteware from prospective candidates but nothing is done about it.”
Peter Dauvergne, MIT Press Reader: “A Dark History of the World’s Smallest Island Nation: A combination of greed, colonial mismanagement, and gross incompetence has brought Nauru, once dubbed ‘Pleasant Island,’ to the brink of collapse.”
India, Haryana State and Maharashtra State Assemblies – October 2019 or November 2019 and Jharkhand State Assembly – November 2019 (plus a Lok Sabha by-election August 5, 2019 in Vellore)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
India has 29 states and seven union territories. Indian states are big – Maharashtra, whose capital is Mumbai, has 112 million people, Haryana 25 million, and Jharkhand 32 million. Coalitions headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently control all three state legislatures. The BJP won a massive victory in elections to the Lok Sabha, India’s national parliament, earlier this year, giving it a second term in power as the majority party able to govern without coalition partners, in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – did well in a series of state elections late last year but is reeling from the whiplash of defeat in the Lok Sabha polls. The state elections are happening in the context of a renewed push from Modi to institute “one nation, one election” – a proposal to hold state elections at the same time as elections to the Lok Sabha.
There is currently political drama in two of India’s high-tech cities: Karnataka State, whose capital is Bangalore (sometimes called India’s Silicon Valley), India’s third-largest city, and Telangana State, whose capital is Hyderabad, India’s fourth-largest city and another important tech hub.
Karnataka State, home to over 61 million people, is embroiled in a political crisis. Congress Party has governed the state since 2013, and was re-elected in 2018 (forming a government in coalition with Janata Dal Secular (JDS)), but a group of government Members of Legislative Assembly (MLAs) have resigned their seats. The government lost a no-confidence vote.
Telangana State, home to over 35 million people, might be holding municipal elections soon. The Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), a center-right state party, holds 100 out of 120 seats in the Legislative Assembly, but BJP plans to contest all of the local seats. TRS’ founder, Kalvakuntla Chandrashekhar Rao (KCR), serves as Chief Minister.
The Economist: “In the end, the vote of no-confidence on July 23rd that brought down the government of Karnataka state came as an act of mercy. Despite three postponements and countless impassioned speeches, only 99 of the assembly’s 225 members supported the chief minister, H.D. Kumaraswamy.”
Nikhil Rampal, India Today: “Post Lok Sabha whipping, Priyanka Gandhi overtakes brother Rahul in Twitter game. This month, the grand old party [Congress] lost Karnataka, one of the biggest states it ruled, after 15 MLAs of the Congress-JD(S) coalition rebelled.”
New Zealand Local – October 12, 2019 and Parliamentary – by November 21, 2020 (likely to be earlier)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Peter Dunne, Stuff: “Next year’s nailbiter of an election”
Alex Braae, The Spinoff: “NZ’s resurgent New Conservatives: riding the culture wars to the 2020 election”
Tracy Watkins, Stuff: “The key battle ground in the next election will be New Zealand’s struggling ‘middle,’ a group Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern admits may be feeling overlooked by her government. The countdown to the 2020 election is underway and while Ardern is at the height of her powers and Labour looks to be in the box seat, the outcome will swing on whether voters in the middle feel like they are getting a fair go from her government.”
Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. However, a series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets – could boost the pro-democracy camp.
Keith Bradsher, New York Times: “Hong Kong’s leader will not be making further concessions to the city’s protesters, two of her top advisers said, as the government digs in despite several large demonstrations over the past month and more planned for…the coming weeks.”
Kristy Needham, The Age: “Hong Kong police fired rubber bullets and tear gas at protesters on Sunday evening [July 21] as tens of thousands of people defied police, throwing eggs and defacing a Beijing local office amid continuing unrest.”
Elizabeth Law, The Straits Times: “Hong Kong is on Friday (July 26) bracing for a demonstration in its airport, one of Asia’s busiest, as more countries including Singapore issued travel advisories for the city.”
AFP: “Taiwan’s foreign minister on Monday called for ‘genuine’ democratic elections to be held in Hong Kong after the city was rocked by fresh political violence, comments that infuriated Beijing.”
James Griffiths, CNN: “Why Hong Kong’s young protesters feel they’re running out of time in fight for democracy”
Lily Kuo, The Guardian: “’All Hong Kongers are scared’: protests to widen as rural residents fight back: Sleepy town of Yuen Long becomes battleground after suspected gangster attack on commuters”
Coconuts Hong Kong: “Pro-Beijing party proposes HK$8,000 cash handout to Hongkongers to ‘help them feel happier’” ahead of elections.
Nectar Gan and Kristin Huang, South China Morning Post: “Will China send in troops to stamp out protests in Hong Kong?”
Taiwan Presidential and Legislative – January 11, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republi
Taiwan has a robust democracy. The two main parties are President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT, founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate. Tsai won the DPP presidential primary, and the KMT holds its own primary next month. Candidates include Terry Guo, Taiwan’s richest man, and Beijing’s choice, Han Kuo-yu, the populist mayor of Kaohsiung, a major port city in the south. The DPP currently controls the Legislative Yuan. Last year’s local elections swept the KMT back into many local offices that they had lost during the 2014 local elections – with some interference from China. China is expected to attempt to influence the upcoming elections as well.
The Economist: “Tsai Ing-wen’s prospects for re-election have improved. Taiwan’s president is having a good summer”
Lev Nachman and Brian Hioe, The Diplomat: “Why the Hong Kong Protests Don’t Guarantee a Tsai Victory in Taiwan: The challenges facing Tsai remain the same, with or without the Hong Kong protests.”
Kathrin Hille, Ozy: “China is influencing Taiwan’s elections – through TV”
Burma Parliamentary – Expected late 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Burma, also called Myanmar, seemed to be moving toward democracy following the country’s first credible, relatively free elections in 2015, which swept Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) to power following decades of military dictatorship. Once held up by the global community as a paragon of moral authority for giving up her own freedom in the fight for democracy, Suu Kyi’s tenure as the country’s de facto leader has disappointed many. Burma still has hundreds of political prisoners, including many who were arrested after the NLD came to power. Ethnic conflicts continue between the dominant Burmans, who comprise roughly 60 percent of the population, and different minority groups. The crisis in Rakhine or Arakan State with the Muslim Rohingya, which some have called a genocide, has created 700,000 refugees in neighboring Bangladesh and 128,000 internally displaced people. During by-elections in 2018, the NLD won seven out of 13 seats, but lost five out of six in non-Burman areas.
Phyo Thiha Cho, Myanmar Now: “NLD Wants Military Lawmakers Out Of Parliament By 2035… And A New National Flag”
Malaysia Local – TBD and General – by 2022
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
In last year’s parliamentary elections, Mahathir Mohamed led his Pakatan Haratan (Alliance of Hope) party to a surprise victory over the Barisan Nasional coalition and its primary member, United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which had been in power since Malaysia’s 1957 independence.
Anisah Shukry and Philip J. Heijmans, Bloomberg: “A sex scandal has laid bare tensions between the likely successors to Malaysia’s Prime Minister MahathirMohamad — and the victor looks set to be Mahathir himself. The 94-year-old, who said he would hand over to former rival Anwar Ibrahim only once the country is on good footing, may extend his stay in power as the ruling party struggles to contain internal rifts.”
The Star/ASIA News Network: “Malaysia’s two biggest opposition parties have agreed on the terms of a formal electoral pact set to be unveiled next month, a move that could threaten many seats won by the ruling Pakatan Harapan (PH) in the last general election.”
Julia Roknifard, Al Jazeera: “The growing threat of sectarianism in Malaysia: The Saudi-Iranian rivalry is raising sectarian tensions in Malaysia and threatening its security.”
Zsombor Peter, VOA: “Promise, Peril in Malaysia’s Move to Lower Voting Age”
Past Elections
Japan Legislative (half of upper house) – July 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Shinzo Abe’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) sought to gain a two-thirds majority in the upper house (which it already held in the lower house with coalition partner Komeito, a Buddhist religious party) in order to revisit and possibly amend Japan’s pacifist constitution. LDP and Komeito did maintain their majority in the upper house, but fell short of the super-majority.
Yoko Wakatsuki, James Griffiths and Jessie Yeung, CNN: “Shinzo Abe declares victory in Japan election but fails to win super majority”
Elliot Waldman, World Politics Review: “Elections in Japan Cement Abe’s Hold on Power, but Bode Ill for His Legacy”
Mina Pollmann, The Diplomat: “What Japan’s Elections Tell Us About a Post-Abe LDP: The results were an indication of ballot box strength, but Abe’s pending Cabinet reshuffle will be equally telling.”
Papua New Guinea Local – July 20-25, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Papua New Guinea’s politics are chaotic, and no single party has ever commanded a majority in parliament. Coalitions shift frequently. James Marape became prime minister in May 2018 when former prime minister Peter O’Neill lost a no-confidence vote after being in power for eight years. It is unclear whether Marape will effectively address Papua New Guinea’s continuing problems of corruption and mismanagement of the economy. For the local elections, voters will elect representatives to 29 urban and 302 rural local level government assemblies.
RNZ: “PNG local election chaos leads to child’s death: Our correspondent reported supporters of one candidate started firing at the elections office after a disagreement with a returning officer.”
Philippines Legislative – May 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Sofia Tomacruz, Rappler: “Comelec to hold elections in Southern Leyte, South Cotabato on October 26: The Commission on Elections says polls in the areas were suspended to a later date due to ‘operational and logistical constraints’ as the new districts were created only months before the May 13 polls”
Azer Parrocha, Philippine News Agency: “President Rodrigo R. Duterte, in his 4th State of the Nation Address (SONA) on Monday, urged Congress to postpone the May 2020 barangay (village) and Sangguniang Kabataan (youth council) elections to October 2022.”
Julia Webster, Time: “Libel Trial Opens Of Maria Ressa, Philippine Journalist Critical of President Duterte”
Human Rights Watch: “Philippine authorities should drop cases for inciting sedition and other offenses against opposition politicians, religious leaders, and human rights advocates, Human Rights Watch said today.”
Gideon Lasco, The Globe Post: “Philippines Duterte Midterm Review: Drug Policies and Governance Undermine Successes”
Maldives Parliamentary – April 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Maldives is an idyllic Indian Ocean archipelago usually associated with honeymoons and oligarchs, although it was ruled by a brutal dictatorship for decades. The country had a remarkable transition to democracy in 2008, followed by several setbacks, delivered a clear win for pro-democracy forces in recent presidential and parliamentary elections.
Daily FT: “Commonwealth releases final report on Maldives’ 2019 parliamentary elections”
Maldives Independent: “Prosecutor General Aishath Bisham on Monday defended her track record and denied facing political influence despite the widely condemned jailing of former president Abdulla Yameen’s opponents. The chief prosecutor was questioned at parliament’s judiciary committee over charges raised against opposition politicians and top state officials during Yameen’s administration.”
Thailand Parliamentary – March 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Constitutional Monarchy
Associated Press: “Thailand’s Constitutional Court accepted complaints against the prime minister and two opposition party leaders Friday in cases that could disqualify them from office. The court said it has accepted a complaint against Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha sent by 110 members of Parliament who seek his disqualification because he held another government position as junta leader.”
James Wise, Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s (ASPI) The Strategist: “Why Thailand stuck with a military government”
AFP: “’We are the last targets’: Thai dissident band in Laos fear death”
Bangkok Post: “The Election Commission (EC) is stepping up efforts to draw up a set of regulations to prepare for elections of local administrative bodies which are expected to begin in September.”
Cambodia General – July 29, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Tej Parikh, The Diplomat: “What Next for Democracy in Cambodia? Hun Sen has remained defiant since eradicating his political opposition. How should the world respond?”
Asia This Week – July 26, 2019
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Last Updated: August 3, 2019 by 21votes
July 26, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Asia and the Pacific on Fridays. Click the map pins.
Nauru Parliamentary - August 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
The last parliamentary elections took place in 2016. Most candidates run as independents. Of the 19 MPs, 17 support the government and two are opposition. Parliament then elects the president. In 2016, President Baron Waqa was re-elected.
Tiny Nauru may only have the population of a single street in Beijing (around 13,000), but the country stands up to China, recognizing Taiwan. At a forum for Pacific nations that Nauru hosted in 2018, Waqa called the Chinese envoy “insolent” and a “bully” when the Chinese envoy attempted to interrupt the representative from Tuvalu, another tiny Pacific nation that also recognizes Taiwan. Waqa laterdoubled down, demanding that China apologize for its “arrogance.”
India, Haryana State and Maharashtra State Assemblies – October 2019 or November 2019 and Jharkhand State Assembly – November 2019 (plus a Lok Sabha by-election August 5, 2019 in Vellore)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
India has 29 states and seven union territories. Indian states are big – Maharashtra, whose capital is Mumbai, has 112 million people, Haryana 25 million, and Jharkhand 32 million. Coalitions headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently control all three state legislatures. The BJP won a massive victory in elections to the Lok Sabha, India’s national parliament, earlier this year, giving it a second term in power as the majority party able to govern without coalition partners, in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – did well in a series of state elections late last year but is reeling from the whiplash of defeat in the Lok Sabha polls. The state elections are happening in the context of a renewed push from Modi to institute “one nation, one election” – a proposal to hold state elections at the same time as elections to the Lok Sabha.
There is currently political drama in two of India’s high-tech cities: Karnataka State, whose capital is Bangalore (sometimes called India’s Silicon Valley), India’s third-largest city, and Telangana State, whose capital is Hyderabad, India’s fourth-largest city and another important tech hub.
Karnataka State, home to over 61 million people, is embroiled in a political crisis. Congress Party has governed the state since 2013, and was re-elected in 2018 (forming a government in coalition with Janata Dal Secular (JDS)), but a group of government Members of Legislative Assembly (MLAs) have resigned their seats. The government lost a no-confidence vote.
Telangana State, home to over 35 million people, might be holding municipal elections soon. The Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), a center-right state party, holds 100 out of 120 seats in the Legislative Assembly, but BJP plans to contest all of the local seats. TRS’ founder, Kalvakuntla Chandrashekhar Rao (KCR), serves as Chief Minister.
New Zealand Local - October 12, 2019 and Parliamentary - by November 21, 2020 (likely to be earlier)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. However, a series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets – could boost the pro-democracy camp.
Taiwan Presidential and Legislative – January 11, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republi
Taiwan has a robust democracy. The two main parties are President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT, founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate. Tsai won the DPP presidential primary, and the KMT holds its own primary next month. Candidates include Terry Guo, Taiwan’s richest man, and Beijing’s choice, Han Kuo-yu, the populist mayor of Kaohsiung, a major port city in the south. The DPP currently controls the Legislative Yuan. Last year’s local elections swept the KMT back into many local offices that they had lost during the 2014 local elections – with some interference from China. China is expected to attempt to influence the upcoming elections as well.
Burma Parliamentary – Expected late 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Burma, also called Myanmar, seemed to be moving toward democracy following the country’s first credible, relatively free elections in 2015, which swept Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) to power following decades of military dictatorship. Once held up by the global community as a paragon of moral authority for giving up her own freedom in the fight for democracy, Suu Kyi’s tenure as the country’s de facto leader has disappointed many. Burma still has hundreds of political prisoners, including many who were arrested after the NLD came to power. Ethnic conflicts continue between the dominant Burmans, who comprise roughly 60 percent of the population, and different minority groups. The crisis in Rakhine or Arakan State with the Muslim Rohingya, which some have called a genocide, has created 700,000 refugees in neighboring Bangladesh and 128,000 internally displaced people. During by-elections in 2018, the NLD won seven out of 13 seats, but lost five out of six in non-Burman areas.
Malaysia Local – TBD and General - by 2022
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
In last year’s parliamentary elections, Mahathir Mohamed led his Pakatan Haratan (Alliance of Hope) party to a surprise victory over the Barisan Nasional coalition and its primary member, United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which had been in power since Malaysia’s 1957 independence.
Japan Legislative (half of upper house) – July 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Shinzo Abe’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) sought to gain a two-thirds majority in the upper house (which it already held in the lower house with coalition partner Komeito, a Buddhist religious party) in order to revisit and possibly amend Japan’s pacifist constitution. LDP and Komeito did maintain their majority in the upper house, but fell short of the super-majority.
Thailand Parliamentary – March 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Constitutional Monarchy
Philippines Legislative – May 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Maldives Parliamentary – April 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Maldives is an idyllic Indian Ocean archipelago usually associated with honeymoons and oligarchs, although it was ruled by a brutal dictatorship for decades. The country had a remarkable transition to democracy in 2008, followed by several setbacks, delivered a clear win for pro-democracy forces in recent presidential and parliamentary elections.
Cambodia General – July 29, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Papua New Guinea Local – July 20-25, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Papua New Guinea’s politics are chaotic, and no single party has ever commanded a majority in parliament. Coalitions shift frequently. James Marape became prime minister in May 2018 when former prime minister Peter O’Neill lost a no-confidence vote after being in power for eight years. It is unclear whether Marape will effectively address Papua New Guinea’s continuing problems of corruption and mismanagement of the economy. For the local elections, voters will elect representatives to 29 urban and 302 rural local level government assemblies.
Upcoming Elections
Nauru Parliamentary – August 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
The last parliamentary elections took place in 2016. Most candidates run as independents. Of the 19 MPs, 17 support the government and two are opposition. Parliament then elects the president. In 2016, President Baron Waqa was re-elected.
Tiny Nauru may only have the population of a single street in Beijing (around 13,000), but the country stands up to China, recognizing Taiwan. At a forum for Pacific nations that Nauru hosted in 2018, Waqa called the Chinese envoy “insolent” and a “bully” when the Chinese envoy attempted to interrupt the representative from Tuvalu, another tiny Pacific nation that also recognizes Taiwan. Waqa laterdoubled down, demanding that China apologize for its “arrogance.”
RNZ: “Former minister aiming for Nauru parliament return: A former Nauru cabinet minister, who hopes to be re-elected in the national election next month, wants to see the parliamentary system strengthened.”
RNZ Pacific/Pacnews: “A former member of parliament in Nauru, campaigning to return to parliament in next month’s election, claims bribery is rife among candidates. Squire Jeremiah said it is commonplace for constituents to receive motorcycles or kitchen whiteware from prospective candidates but nothing is done about it.”
Peter Dauvergne, MIT Press Reader: “A Dark History of the World’s Smallest Island Nation: A combination of greed, colonial mismanagement, and gross incompetence has brought Nauru, once dubbed ‘Pleasant Island,’ to the brink of collapse.”
India, Haryana State and Maharashtra State Assemblies – October 2019 or November 2019 and Jharkhand State Assembly – November 2019 (plus a Lok Sabha by-election August 5, 2019 in Vellore)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
India has 29 states and seven union territories. Indian states are big – Maharashtra, whose capital is Mumbai, has 112 million people, Haryana 25 million, and Jharkhand 32 million. Coalitions headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently control all three state legislatures. The BJP won a massive victory in elections to the Lok Sabha, India’s national parliament, earlier this year, giving it a second term in power as the majority party able to govern without coalition partners, in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – did well in a series of state elections late last year but is reeling from the whiplash of defeat in the Lok Sabha polls. The state elections are happening in the context of a renewed push from Modi to institute “one nation, one election” – a proposal to hold state elections at the same time as elections to the Lok Sabha.
There is currently political drama in two of India’s high-tech cities: Karnataka State, whose capital is Bangalore (sometimes called India’s Silicon Valley), India’s third-largest city, and Telangana State, whose capital is Hyderabad, India’s fourth-largest city and another important tech hub.
Karnataka State, home to over 61 million people, is embroiled in a political crisis. Congress Party has governed the state since 2013, and was re-elected in 2018 (forming a government in coalition with Janata Dal Secular (JDS)), but a group of government Members of Legislative Assembly (MLAs) have resigned their seats. The government lost a no-confidence vote.
Telangana State, home to over 35 million people, might be holding municipal elections soon. The Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), a center-right state party, holds 100 out of 120 seats in the Legislative Assembly, but BJP plans to contest all of the local seats. TRS’ founder, Kalvakuntla Chandrashekhar Rao (KCR), serves as Chief Minister.
The Economist: “In the end, the vote of no-confidence on July 23rd that brought down the government of Karnataka state came as an act of mercy. Despite three postponements and countless impassioned speeches, only 99 of the assembly’s 225 members supported the chief minister, H.D. Kumaraswamy.”
Nikhil Rampal, India Today: “Post Lok Sabha whipping, Priyanka Gandhi overtakes brother Rahul in Twitter game. This month, the grand old party [Congress] lost Karnataka, one of the biggest states it ruled, after 15 MLAs of the Congress-JD(S) coalition rebelled.”
New Zealand Local – October 12, 2019 and Parliamentary – by November 21, 2020 (likely to be earlier)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Peter Dunne, Stuff: “Next year’s nailbiter of an election”
Alex Braae, The Spinoff: “NZ’s resurgent New Conservatives: riding the culture wars to the 2020 election”
Tracy Watkins, Stuff: “The key battle ground in the next election will be New Zealand’s struggling ‘middle,’ a group Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern admits may be feeling overlooked by her government. The countdown to the 2020 election is underway and while Ardern is at the height of her powers and Labour looks to be in the box seat, the outcome will swing on whether voters in the middle feel like they are getting a fair go from her government.”
Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. However, a series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets – could boost the pro-democracy camp.
Keith Bradsher, New York Times: “Hong Kong’s leader will not be making further concessions to the city’s protesters, two of her top advisers said, as the government digs in despite several large demonstrations over the past month and more planned for…the coming weeks.”
Kristy Needham, The Age: “Hong Kong police fired rubber bullets and tear gas at protesters on Sunday evening [July 21] as tens of thousands of people defied police, throwing eggs and defacing a Beijing local office amid continuing unrest.”
Elizabeth Law, The Straits Times: “Hong Kong is on Friday (July 26) bracing for a demonstration in its airport, one of Asia’s busiest, as more countries including Singapore issued travel advisories for the city.”
AFP: “Taiwan’s foreign minister on Monday called for ‘genuine’ democratic elections to be held in Hong Kong after the city was rocked by fresh political violence, comments that infuriated Beijing.”
James Griffiths, CNN: “Why Hong Kong’s young protesters feel they’re running out of time in fight for democracy”
Lily Kuo, The Guardian: “’All Hong Kongers are scared’: protests to widen as rural residents fight back: Sleepy town of Yuen Long becomes battleground after suspected gangster attack on commuters”
Coconuts Hong Kong: “Pro-Beijing party proposes HK$8,000 cash handout to Hongkongers to ‘help them feel happier’” ahead of elections.
Nectar Gan and Kristin Huang, South China Morning Post: “Will China send in troops to stamp out protests in Hong Kong?”
Taiwan Presidential and Legislative – January 11, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republi
Taiwan has a robust democracy. The two main parties are President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT, founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate. Tsai won the DPP presidential primary, and the KMT holds its own primary next month. Candidates include Terry Guo, Taiwan’s richest man, and Beijing’s choice, Han Kuo-yu, the populist mayor of Kaohsiung, a major port city in the south. The DPP currently controls the Legislative Yuan. Last year’s local elections swept the KMT back into many local offices that they had lost during the 2014 local elections – with some interference from China. China is expected to attempt to influence the upcoming elections as well.
The Economist: “Tsai Ing-wen’s prospects for re-election have improved. Taiwan’s president is having a good summer”
Lev Nachman and Brian Hioe, The Diplomat: “Why the Hong Kong Protests Don’t Guarantee a Tsai Victory in Taiwan: The challenges facing Tsai remain the same, with or without the Hong Kong protests.”
Kathrin Hille, Ozy: “China is influencing Taiwan’s elections – through TV”
Burma Parliamentary – Expected late 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Burma, also called Myanmar, seemed to be moving toward democracy following the country’s first credible, relatively free elections in 2015, which swept Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) to power following decades of military dictatorship. Once held up by the global community as a paragon of moral authority for giving up her own freedom in the fight for democracy, Suu Kyi’s tenure as the country’s de facto leader has disappointed many. Burma still has hundreds of political prisoners, including many who were arrested after the NLD came to power. Ethnic conflicts continue between the dominant Burmans, who comprise roughly 60 percent of the population, and different minority groups. The crisis in Rakhine or Arakan State with the Muslim Rohingya, which some have called a genocide, has created 700,000 refugees in neighboring Bangladesh and 128,000 internally displaced people. During by-elections in 2018, the NLD won seven out of 13 seats, but lost five out of six in non-Burman areas.
Phyo Thiha Cho, Myanmar Now: “NLD Wants Military Lawmakers Out Of Parliament By 2035… And A New National Flag”
Malaysia Local – TBD and General – by 2022
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
In last year’s parliamentary elections, Mahathir Mohamed led his Pakatan Haratan (Alliance of Hope) party to a surprise victory over the Barisan Nasional coalition and its primary member, United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which had been in power since Malaysia’s 1957 independence.
Anisah Shukry and Philip J. Heijmans, Bloomberg: “A sex scandal has laid bare tensions between the likely successors to Malaysia’s Prime Minister MahathirMohamad — and the victor looks set to be Mahathir himself. The 94-year-old, who said he would hand over to former rival Anwar Ibrahim only once the country is on good footing, may extend his stay in power as the ruling party struggles to contain internal rifts.”
The Star/ASIA News Network: “Malaysia’s two biggest opposition parties have agreed on the terms of a formal electoral pact set to be unveiled next month, a move that could threaten many seats won by the ruling Pakatan Harapan (PH) in the last general election.”
Julia Roknifard, Al Jazeera: “The growing threat of sectarianism in Malaysia: The Saudi-Iranian rivalry is raising sectarian tensions in Malaysia and threatening its security.”
Zsombor Peter, VOA: “Promise, Peril in Malaysia’s Move to Lower Voting Age”
Past Elections
Japan Legislative (half of upper house) – July 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Shinzo Abe’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) sought to gain a two-thirds majority in the upper house (which it already held in the lower house with coalition partner Komeito, a Buddhist religious party) in order to revisit and possibly amend Japan’s pacifist constitution. LDP and Komeito did maintain their majority in the upper house, but fell short of the super-majority.
Yoko Wakatsuki, James Griffiths and Jessie Yeung, CNN: “Shinzo Abe declares victory in Japan election but fails to win super majority”
Elliot Waldman, World Politics Review: “Elections in Japan Cement Abe’s Hold on Power, but Bode Ill for His Legacy”
Mina Pollmann, The Diplomat: “What Japan’s Elections Tell Us About a Post-Abe LDP: The results were an indication of ballot box strength, but Abe’s pending Cabinet reshuffle will be equally telling.”
Papua New Guinea Local – July 20-25, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Papua New Guinea’s politics are chaotic, and no single party has ever commanded a majority in parliament. Coalitions shift frequently. James Marape became prime minister in May 2018 when former prime minister Peter O’Neill lost a no-confidence vote after being in power for eight years. It is unclear whether Marape will effectively address Papua New Guinea’s continuing problems of corruption and mismanagement of the economy. For the local elections, voters will elect representatives to 29 urban and 302 rural local level government assemblies.
RNZ: “PNG local election chaos leads to child’s death: Our correspondent reported supporters of one candidate started firing at the elections office after a disagreement with a returning officer.”
Philippines Legislative – May 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Sofia Tomacruz, Rappler: “Comelec to hold elections in Southern Leyte, South Cotabato on October 26: The Commission on Elections says polls in the areas were suspended to a later date due to ‘operational and logistical constraints’ as the new districts were created only months before the May 13 polls”
Azer Parrocha, Philippine News Agency: “President Rodrigo R. Duterte, in his 4th State of the Nation Address (SONA) on Monday, urged Congress to postpone the May 2020 barangay (village) and Sangguniang Kabataan (youth council) elections to October 2022.”
Julia Webster, Time: “Libel Trial Opens Of Maria Ressa, Philippine Journalist Critical of President Duterte”
Human Rights Watch: “Philippine authorities should drop cases for inciting sedition and other offenses against opposition politicians, religious leaders, and human rights advocates, Human Rights Watch said today.”
Gideon Lasco, The Globe Post: “Philippines Duterte Midterm Review: Drug Policies and Governance Undermine Successes”
Maldives Parliamentary – April 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Maldives is an idyllic Indian Ocean archipelago usually associated with honeymoons and oligarchs, although it was ruled by a brutal dictatorship for decades. The country had a remarkable transition to democracy in 2008, followed by several setbacks, delivered a clear win for pro-democracy forces in recent presidential and parliamentary elections.
Daily FT: “Commonwealth releases final report on Maldives’ 2019 parliamentary elections”
Maldives Independent: “Prosecutor General Aishath Bisham on Monday defended her track record and denied facing political influence despite the widely condemned jailing of former president Abdulla Yameen’s opponents. The chief prosecutor was questioned at parliament’s judiciary committee over charges raised against opposition politicians and top state officials during Yameen’s administration.”
Thailand Parliamentary – March 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Constitutional Monarchy
Associated Press: “Thailand’s Constitutional Court accepted complaints against the prime minister and two opposition party leaders Friday in cases that could disqualify them from office. The court said it has accepted a complaint against Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha sent by 110 members of Parliament who seek his disqualification because he held another government position as junta leader.”
James Wise, Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s (ASPI) The Strategist: “Why Thailand stuck with a military government”
AFP: “’We are the last targets’: Thai dissident band in Laos fear death”
Bangkok Post: “The Election Commission (EC) is stepping up efforts to draw up a set of regulations to prepare for elections of local administrative bodies which are expected to begin in September.”
Cambodia General – July 29, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Tej Parikh, The Diplomat: “What Next for Democracy in Cambodia? Hun Sen has remained defiant since eradicating his political opposition. How should the world respond?”
The Year Ahead: Asia
Papua New Guinea local (July 20-25); Nauru legislative (August 24); India, Maharashtra and Haryana states (October); Tuvalu parliamentary (September 9); New Zealand local (October 12); Hong Kong local (November 24); Marshall Islands legislative (November); Kiribati legislative (December); Sri Lanka presidential (December 7); Taiwan presidential and legislative (January 11); Kiribati presidential (March); South Korea parliamentary (April 15); Niue parliamentary (May); Mongolia parliamentary (June)
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A voter registration booth in Hong Kong, 2014. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Ceeseven (CC BY-SA 4.0)
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Category: This Week Tags: Burma, Cambodia, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Malaysia, Maldives, Nauru, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand