Upcoming Elections
Belize Village Elections – June 23-July 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Belize is dominated by two parties: Prime Minister Dean Barrow’s center-right United Democratic Party, which has been in government since 2008, and the center-left People’s United Party (PUP), which played a major role in negotiating Belize’s independence and dominated politics until the 1980s. Belize has general elections coming up in November 2020.
Breaking Belize News: “Political parties prepare for last round of village council elections”
Guatemala General, Second Round – August 11, 2019 (first round was June 16)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
These elections are taking place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.
In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.
Paola Nagovitch, AS/COA: “Poll Update: Guatemala’s 2019 Presidential Runoff”
The Economist: “Letting academics pick magistrates has not worked in Guatemala: The idea has succumbed to the corruption it was meant to stamp out”
Ben Miller, Americas Quarterly: “Corruption Busters: Where Are They Now?”
Brendan O’Boyle, Emilie Sweigart, Benjamin Russell, Americas Quarterly: “Fighting Corruption: What Works/What Doesn’t”
Bolivia General – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republi
Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates.
Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS) currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.
Campaigning is very much underway. We’ve interspersed tweets from candidates with pictures, to give you a sense of what campaigning looks and sounds like, and what the candidates’ messages are.
Williams Farfán, La Razón: “The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) published yesterday the documents of the seven parties and two political alliances that will participate in the general elections of October 20. Of the three parties that lead the polls, with the proper distances, it was possible to establish coincidences on issues between [Evo Morales’ socialist] MAS and [Carlos Mesa’s center-left] CC, and the largest distance from [Óscar Ortiz Antelo’s center-right] Bolivia Says No.”
President Evo Morales presenting his MAS party’s Legislative Assembly candidates from Beni Department in the northeast of Bolivia:
Carlos Mesa, a historian and former president and vice president, believes Morales has become too extreme and too powerful, and that re-electing him could turn Bolivia into Venezuela. His campaign slogans include “Solutions” and “A Better Bolivia.”
Rubén Ariñez, La Razón: “Mesa proposes to maintain the role of the State in strategic sectors of the economy, but without corruption. The opposition candidate said that it is necessary to maintain public investment and increase private investment, which in his opinion was stalled in the current administration of the president and candidate for re-election Evo Morales”
BN Americas: “‘President Morales is no longer part of the present, much less of the future, [he] is part of the past, [he] is the past…he has decided that power is more important than the project, because unfortunately he considers that he has some acquired right to remain in power indefinitely,’ Mesa said when he announced his candidacy. A latest poll has Morales leading with 37% of voter intent and Mesa in second place with 26%.”
Center-right opposition presidential candidate Óscar Ortiz Antelo of the Bolivia Says No coalition presents his coalition’s legislative candidates in Potosí, a highland region in the southwest.
Daniel Funke and Susan Benkelman, Poynter: “PolitiFact taught fact-checking skills to Bolivian journalists. Here’s how it went.”
Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
The election will be competitive, and some polls have shown that the Conservatives would beat incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals if the election were held today. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.
Steve Scherer and Moira Warburton, Reuters: “A judge said on Tuesday that Canada’s chief electoral officer (CEO) must reconsider the Oct. 21 date for the federal election because it coincides with a Jewish holiday, according to a copy of the ruling.”
Aaron Wherry, CBC: “Why Trudeau’s broken electoral reform promise could rebound on him. In a minority Parliament, he could find himself painted into a corner”
Kurt Fifelski, The Diplomat: “The US-China Trade War Could Spell Election Defeat for Canada’s Trudeau. The Canadian prime minister might become the most high-profile casualty of U.S.-China frictions.”
Andrea Bellemare, Kaleigh Rogers, Roberto Rocha, CBC: “Liberals lead in Facebook ad spending – but Conservatives close behind”
Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 and Provincial – Throughout the year (next up: Santa Cruz on August 11, 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
On the presidential front: Incumbent Maucirio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.
Carolina Millan, Bloomberg: “Volatility Is Back in Argentina as Election Jitters Take Toll: Primary vote will give a snapshot of opposition support.”
MercoPress: “Argentina’s economic activity rose for the first time in over a year in May, a rare boost for President Mauricio Macri as he looks to dig the South American country out of a crippling recession ahead of presidential elections later this year.”
Uruguay General – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Nicknamed the “Switzerland of South America,” Uruguay is wealthier than the its neighbors and politically neutral. The three major parties are the center-left and social democratic Frente Amplio (Broad Front) coalition, the center-right National Party (PN), and the liberal Colorado Party (PC). FA holds a razor-thin majority in the General Assembly, with 16 out of 31 Senate seats and 50 out of 99 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. It has had a majority in the General Assembly and held the presidency since 2005. President Tabaré Vázquez, who was elected in 2014 and had also been president from 2005 to 2010, is not able to run this year because the constitution does not allow consecutive terms. Corruption allegations and slow economic growth could hurt FA’s chances in these elections. During the June 30, 2019 primaries – in which voters also express a preferred party – FA received only 23.6 percent of the vote, with PN winning 41.6 and PC picking up 16.8.
BN Americas: “What’s at stake in Uruguay’s elections”
Frida Ghitis, World Politics Review: “Is Uruguay’s Brand of Pragmatic Leftism on the Way Out?….General elections are scheduled for October, but national primaries held on June 30 already took the pulse of the country, producing some surprising results and signaling what might come next. As some of their neighbors, notably Brazil, move to the far right, Uruguayans—even those who have had enough of the left—still shun the extremes.”
Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections.
DW: “Colombia: Thousands protest against activist slayings. Across Colombia, protesters carried photos of murdered activists and signs reading: ‘No more bloodshed.’ Over 400 people have been killed in an alarming wave of violence since the 2016 peace deal was signed.”
Luis Jaime Acosta, Reuters: “Marches took place in more than 50 Colombian cities and towns and were also scheduled in dozens of foreign cities.”
Sophie Foggin, Latin America Reports: “What is the government’s current commitment to protecting social leaders in Colombia? People across the world are marching for the lives of social leaders. Here’s how the state is responding to the crisis.”
Haiti Local and Partial Parliamentary (one third of the Senate and the entire lower house) – Due October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Haiti is in a political crisis. Political chaos related to allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. A commission found that the election had indeed been fraudulent, and ordered a re-reun, which had only 18 percent turnout. President Moïse Jovenel was elected with 56 percent of ballots cast. The opposition alleged fraud once again, but an election tribunal conducted an investigation and certified the results. Violent protesters have demanded the president’s ouster. The 2015-2016 parliamentary elections were also marred by significant fraud. The country is currently without a government as opposition lawmakers have blocked multiple attempts to ratify a new prime minister.
Jacqueline Charles, Miami Herald: “Haiti’s president nominates a new prime minister, his fourth in less than three years”
Sandra Lemaire, VOA: “ Haitian President Jovenel Moise defended his choice for prime minister Wednesday, following complaints that Fritz-William Michel is a virtual unknown who should not have been named. Opposition lawmakers say Michel has close ties to Deputy Gary Bodeau, president of the Chamber of Deputies, and that he was not chosen by consensus.”
The Haiti Sentinel: “It is the first in the history of Haiti. A cabinet 50% women. It was presented by the Prime Minister-designate Fritz William Michel on Wednesday, well before the acceptance of his credentials, and long before an uncertain ratification hearing.”
Teresa Moli, University of Texas at Austin’s Knight Center for Journalism in the Americas: “Journalist who received threats survives shooting in Haiti’s capital”
Haitian Times: “Haiti’s Notorious Gang Leader Arnel Joseph Arrested”
Guyana Snap Parliamentary – November 2019 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil. In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation has delayed the process. Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese.
Upstream: “Guyana officials agree on elections chair”
Demerara Waves: “Key diplomats on Friday afternoon welcomed the appointment of retired Justice Claudette Singh as the new Chairman of the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM).”
Janelle De Souza, Trinidad and Tobago News Day: “Yesterday [July 20], at a press conference at the law office of Randy Depoo in Port of Spain, the Guyana opposition claimed that instead of preparing for general elections as mandated by the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ), the government was attempting to further delay it in order to prolong their rule.”
Venezuela – Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Venezuela is currently in a political crisis following disputed presidential elections in May 2018. Incumbent Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez’s protege, was declared the winner, but the elections were widely denounced as illegitimate and the opposition mostly boycotted the polls. Because Venezuela’s constitution stipulates that the leader of the National Assembly (Venezuela’s only institution with a modicum of democratic legitimacy) becomes interim president if the office is vacant, many of the world’s free democracies recognized Juan Guaidó as interim president until the country holds new elections. Maduro continues to cling to power and his forces are violently cracking down on the opposition. The regime has deployed death squads. However, the opposition perseveres.
The country is also in a humanitarian crisis. The capital, Caracas, is one of the most violent cities in the world. Hyperinflation has resulted in 90 percent of Venezuelans being unable to afford sufficient food, and as many as 3.4 million people (more than 10 percent of the population) have fled since 2015.
Roberto Mansilla Blanco, Global Americans: “Venezuelans, suffering an incomparable tragedy at a historical level, have legitimate reasons to question what is being discussed in Barbados and its possible consequences. But some clearly visible results out of the new political context in Venezuela have created a new situation that is both urgent and likely to produce real solutions.”
AFP: “Venezuela’s Supreme Court on Friday annulled a decision by the opposition-controlled legislature to re-join a regional defense treaty that could provide a legal framework for foreign military intervention. Venezuela’s top court, made up of judges loyal to President Nicolas Maduro, said the National Assembly’s decision to rejoin the Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance (TIAR) on Tuesday had no legal basis.”
Peru General – April 11, 2021 (snap elections before April 2020 possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Andres Oppenheimer, Miami Herald: “The downside of Peru’s anti-corruption crusade? It could elect a populist demagogue”
Past Elections
El Salvador Presidential – February 3, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Populist Nayib Bukele won a historic election in February to become the first president in the history of El Salvador’s democracy to come from outside of the country’s two main parties.
Hilary Goodfriend, Jacobin: “The Donald Trump of Central America”
Ana Quintana and Matthew Prillman, The Heritage Foundation’s Daily Signal: “El Salvador’s New Leader Inspires High Hopes Amid High Stakes”
Frances Jenner, Latin America Reports: “A comprehensive guide to El Salvador’s anti-corruption commission: A look at the current status of the International Commission Against Impunity in El Salvador and what it has achieved in the country.”
Brazil General – October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Last year’s elections in Brazil swept controversial right-wing populist firebrand Jair Bolsonaro into the presidency, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country.
The Economist: “Jair Bolsonaro has given up on his anti-graft crusade. The president is breaking his main campaign promise.”
Mexico General – July 1, 2018
Freedom House Rating – Partly Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Left-wing populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador (frequently called AMLO) and his MORENA party won the presidency and majorities in both houses of Congress in a watershed election in 2018, defeating Mexico’s two previously-dominant parties.
Eric Martin, Bloomberg: “How AMLO’s Plans to Transform Mexico Ran Into Reality”
Americas This Week – July 27, 2019
Leave a Comment
Last Updated: August 3, 2019 by 21votes
July 27, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore the Americas on Saturdays. Click the map pins.
Belize Village Elections – June 23-July 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Belize is dominated by two parties: Prime Minister Dean Barrow’s center-right United Democratic Party, which has been in government since 2008, and the center-left People’s United Party (PUP), which played a major role in negotiating Belize’s independence and dominated politics until the 1980s. Belize has general elections coming up in November 2020.
Guatemala General, Second Round – August 11, 2019 (first round was June 16)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
These elections are taking place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.
In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.
Bolivia General – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republi
Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates.
Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS) currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.
Campaigning is very much underway.
Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
The election will be competitive, and some polls have shown that the Conservatives would beat incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals if the election were held today. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.
Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 and Provincial – Throughout the year (next up: Santa Cruz on August 11, 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
On the presidential front: Incumbent Maucirio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.
Uruguay General – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Nicknamed the “Switzerland of South America,” Uruguay is wealthier than the its neighbors and politically neutral. The three major parties are the center-left and social democratic Frente Amplio (Broad Front) coalition, the center-right National Party (PN), and the liberal Colorado Party (PC). FA holds a razor-thin majority in the General Assembly, with 16 out of 31 Senate seats and 50 out of 99 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. It has had a majority in the General Assembly and held the presidency since 2005. President Tabaré Vázquez, who was elected in 2014 and had also been president from 2005 to 2010, is not able to run this year because the constitution does not allow consecutive terms. Corruption allegations and slow economic growth could hurt FA’s chances in these elections. During the June 30, 2019 primaries – in which voters also express a preferred party – FA received only 23.6 percent of the vote, with PN winning 41.6 and PC picking up 16.8.
Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections.
Haiti Local and Partial Parliamentary (one third of the Senate and the entire lower house) – Due October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Haiti is in a political crisis. Political chaos related to allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. A commission found that the election had indeed been fraudulent, and ordered a re-reun, which had only 18 percent turnout. President Moïse Jovenel was elected with 56 percent of ballots cast. The opposition alleged fraud once again, but an election tribunal conducted an investigation and certified the results. Violent protesters have demanded the president’s ouster. The 2015-2016 parliamentary elections were also marred by significant fraud. The country is currently without a government as opposition lawmakers have blocked multiple attempts to ratify a new prime minister.
Guyana Snap Parliamentary – November 2019 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil. In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation has delayed the process. Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese.
Venezuela – Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Venezuela is currently in a political crisis following disputed presidential elections in May 2018. Incumbent Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez’s protege, was declared the winner, but the elections were widely denounced as illegitimate and the opposition mostly boycotted the polls. Because Venezuela’s constitution stipulates that the leader of the National Assembly (Venezuela’s only institution with a modicum of democratic legitimacy) becomes interim president if the office is vacant, many of the world’s free democracies recognized Juan Guaidó as interim president until the country holds new elections. Maduro continues to cling to power and his forces are violently cracking down on the opposition. The regime has deployed death squads. However, the opposition perseveres.
The country is also in a humanitarian crisis. The capital, Caracas, is one of the most violent cities in the world. Hyperinflation has resulted in 90 percent of Venezuelans being unable to afford sufficient food, and as many as 3.4 million people (more than 10 percent of the population) have fled since 2015.
Peru General - April 11, 2021 (snap elections before April 2020 possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
El Salvador Presidential – February 3, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Populist Nayib Bukele won a historic election in February to become the first president in the history of El Salvador’s democracy to come from outside of the country’s two main parties.
Brazil General - October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Last year’s elections in Brazil swept controversial right-wing populist firebrand Jair Bolsonaro into the presidency, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country.
Mexico General - July 1, 2018
Freedom House Rating – Partly Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Left-wing populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador (frequently called AMLO) and his MORENA party won the presidency and majorities in both houses of Congress in a watershed election in 2018, defeating Mexico’s two previously-dominant parties.
Upcoming Elections
Belize Village Elections – June 23-July 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Belize is dominated by two parties: Prime Minister Dean Barrow’s center-right United Democratic Party, which has been in government since 2008, and the center-left People’s United Party (PUP), which played a major role in negotiating Belize’s independence and dominated politics until the 1980s. Belize has general elections coming up in November 2020.
Breaking Belize News: “Political parties prepare for last round of village council elections”
Guatemala General, Second Round – August 11, 2019 (first round was June 16)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
These elections are taking place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.
In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.
Paola Nagovitch, AS/COA: “Poll Update: Guatemala’s 2019 Presidential Runoff”
The Economist: “Letting academics pick magistrates has not worked in Guatemala: The idea has succumbed to the corruption it was meant to stamp out”
Ben Miller, Americas Quarterly: “Corruption Busters: Where Are They Now?”
Brendan O’Boyle, Emilie Sweigart, Benjamin Russell, Americas Quarterly: “Fighting Corruption: What Works/What Doesn’t”
Bolivia General – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republi
Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates.
Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS) currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.
Campaigning is very much underway. We’ve interspersed tweets from candidates with pictures, to give you a sense of what campaigning looks and sounds like, and what the candidates’ messages are.
Williams Farfán, La Razón: “The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) published yesterday the documents of the seven parties and two political alliances that will participate in the general elections of October 20. Of the three parties that lead the polls, with the proper distances, it was possible to establish coincidences on issues between [Evo Morales’ socialist] MAS and [Carlos Mesa’s center-left] CC, and the largest distance from [Óscar Ortiz Antelo’s center-right] Bolivia Says No.”
President Evo Morales presenting his MAS party’s Legislative Assembly candidates from Beni Department in the northeast of Bolivia:
Carlos Mesa, a historian and former president and vice president, believes Morales has become too extreme and too powerful, and that re-electing him could turn Bolivia into Venezuela. His campaign slogans include “Solutions” and “A Better Bolivia.”
Rubén Ariñez, La Razón: “Mesa proposes to maintain the role of the State in strategic sectors of the economy, but without corruption. The opposition candidate said that it is necessary to maintain public investment and increase private investment, which in his opinion was stalled in the current administration of the president and candidate for re-election Evo Morales”
BN Americas: “‘President Morales is no longer part of the present, much less of the future, [he] is part of the past, [he] is the past…he has decided that power is more important than the project, because unfortunately he considers that he has some acquired right to remain in power indefinitely,’ Mesa said when he announced his candidacy. A latest poll has Morales leading with 37% of voter intent and Mesa in second place with 26%.”
Center-right opposition presidential candidate Óscar Ortiz Antelo of the Bolivia Says No coalition presents his coalition’s legislative candidates in Potosí, a highland region in the southwest.
Daniel Funke and Susan Benkelman, Poynter: “PolitiFact taught fact-checking skills to Bolivian journalists. Here’s how it went.”
Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
The election will be competitive, and some polls have shown that the Conservatives would beat incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals if the election were held today. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.
Steve Scherer and Moira Warburton, Reuters: “A judge said on Tuesday that Canada’s chief electoral officer (CEO) must reconsider the Oct. 21 date for the federal election because it coincides with a Jewish holiday, according to a copy of the ruling.”
Aaron Wherry, CBC: “Why Trudeau’s broken electoral reform promise could rebound on him. In a minority Parliament, he could find himself painted into a corner”
Kurt Fifelski, The Diplomat: “The US-China Trade War Could Spell Election Defeat for Canada’s Trudeau. The Canadian prime minister might become the most high-profile casualty of U.S.-China frictions.”
Andrea Bellemare, Kaleigh Rogers, Roberto Rocha, CBC: “Liberals lead in Facebook ad spending – but Conservatives close behind”
Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 and Provincial – Throughout the year (next up: Santa Cruz on August 11, 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
On the presidential front: Incumbent Maucirio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.
Carolina Millan, Bloomberg: “Volatility Is Back in Argentina as Election Jitters Take Toll: Primary vote will give a snapshot of opposition support.”
MercoPress: “Argentina’s economic activity rose for the first time in over a year in May, a rare boost for President Mauricio Macri as he looks to dig the South American country out of a crippling recession ahead of presidential elections later this year.”
Uruguay General – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Nicknamed the “Switzerland of South America,” Uruguay is wealthier than the its neighbors and politically neutral. The three major parties are the center-left and social democratic Frente Amplio (Broad Front) coalition, the center-right National Party (PN), and the liberal Colorado Party (PC). FA holds a razor-thin majority in the General Assembly, with 16 out of 31 Senate seats and 50 out of 99 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. It has had a majority in the General Assembly and held the presidency since 2005. President Tabaré Vázquez, who was elected in 2014 and had also been president from 2005 to 2010, is not able to run this year because the constitution does not allow consecutive terms. Corruption allegations and slow economic growth could hurt FA’s chances in these elections. During the June 30, 2019 primaries – in which voters also express a preferred party – FA received only 23.6 percent of the vote, with PN winning 41.6 and PC picking up 16.8.
BN Americas: “What’s at stake in Uruguay’s elections”
Frida Ghitis, World Politics Review: “Is Uruguay’s Brand of Pragmatic Leftism on the Way Out?….General elections are scheduled for October, but national primaries held on June 30 already took the pulse of the country, producing some surprising results and signaling what might come next. As some of their neighbors, notably Brazil, move to the far right, Uruguayans—even those who have had enough of the left—still shun the extremes.”
Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections.
DW: “Colombia: Thousands protest against activist slayings. Across Colombia, protesters carried photos of murdered activists and signs reading: ‘No more bloodshed.’ Over 400 people have been killed in an alarming wave of violence since the 2016 peace deal was signed.”
Luis Jaime Acosta, Reuters: “Marches took place in more than 50 Colombian cities and towns and were also scheduled in dozens of foreign cities.”
Sophie Foggin, Latin America Reports: “What is the government’s current commitment to protecting social leaders in Colombia? People across the world are marching for the lives of social leaders. Here’s how the state is responding to the crisis.”
Haiti Local and Partial Parliamentary (one third of the Senate and the entire lower house) – Due October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Haiti is in a political crisis. Political chaos related to allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. A commission found that the election had indeed been fraudulent, and ordered a re-reun, which had only 18 percent turnout. President Moïse Jovenel was elected with 56 percent of ballots cast. The opposition alleged fraud once again, but an election tribunal conducted an investigation and certified the results. Violent protesters have demanded the president’s ouster. The 2015-2016 parliamentary elections were also marred by significant fraud. The country is currently without a government as opposition lawmakers have blocked multiple attempts to ratify a new prime minister.
Jacqueline Charles, Miami Herald: “Haiti’s president nominates a new prime minister, his fourth in less than three years”
Sandra Lemaire, VOA: “ Haitian President Jovenel Moise defended his choice for prime minister Wednesday, following complaints that Fritz-William Michel is a virtual unknown who should not have been named. Opposition lawmakers say Michel has close ties to Deputy Gary Bodeau, president of the Chamber of Deputies, and that he was not chosen by consensus.”
The Haiti Sentinel: “It is the first in the history of Haiti. A cabinet 50% women. It was presented by the Prime Minister-designate Fritz William Michel on Wednesday, well before the acceptance of his credentials, and long before an uncertain ratification hearing.”
Teresa Moli, University of Texas at Austin’s Knight Center for Journalism in the Americas: “Journalist who received threats survives shooting in Haiti’s capital”
Haitian Times: “Haiti’s Notorious Gang Leader Arnel Joseph Arrested”
Guyana Snap Parliamentary – November 2019 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil. In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation has delayed the process. Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese.
Upstream: “Guyana officials agree on elections chair”
Demerara Waves: “Key diplomats on Friday afternoon welcomed the appointment of retired Justice Claudette Singh as the new Chairman of the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM).”
Janelle De Souza, Trinidad and Tobago News Day: “Yesterday [July 20], at a press conference at the law office of Randy Depoo in Port of Spain, the Guyana opposition claimed that instead of preparing for general elections as mandated by the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ), the government was attempting to further delay it in order to prolong their rule.”
Venezuela – Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Venezuela is currently in a political crisis following disputed presidential elections in May 2018. Incumbent Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez’s protege, was declared the winner, but the elections were widely denounced as illegitimate and the opposition mostly boycotted the polls. Because Venezuela’s constitution stipulates that the leader of the National Assembly (Venezuela’s only institution with a modicum of democratic legitimacy) becomes interim president if the office is vacant, many of the world’s free democracies recognized Juan Guaidó as interim president until the country holds new elections. Maduro continues to cling to power and his forces are violently cracking down on the opposition. The regime has deployed death squads. However, the opposition perseveres.
The country is also in a humanitarian crisis. The capital, Caracas, is one of the most violent cities in the world. Hyperinflation has resulted in 90 percent of Venezuelans being unable to afford sufficient food, and as many as 3.4 million people (more than 10 percent of the population) have fled since 2015.
Roberto Mansilla Blanco, Global Americans: “Venezuelans, suffering an incomparable tragedy at a historical level, have legitimate reasons to question what is being discussed in Barbados and its possible consequences. But some clearly visible results out of the new political context in Venezuela have created a new situation that is both urgent and likely to produce real solutions.”
AFP: “Venezuela’s Supreme Court on Friday annulled a decision by the opposition-controlled legislature to re-join a regional defense treaty that could provide a legal framework for foreign military intervention. Venezuela’s top court, made up of judges loyal to President Nicolas Maduro, said the National Assembly’s decision to rejoin the Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance (TIAR) on Tuesday had no legal basis.”
Peru General – April 11, 2021 (snap elections before April 2020 possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Andres Oppenheimer, Miami Herald: “The downside of Peru’s anti-corruption crusade? It could elect a populist demagogue”
Past Elections
El Salvador Presidential – February 3, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Populist Nayib Bukele won a historic election in February to become the first president in the history of El Salvador’s democracy to come from outside of the country’s two main parties.
Hilary Goodfriend, Jacobin: “The Donald Trump of Central America”
Ana Quintana and Matthew Prillman, The Heritage Foundation’s Daily Signal: “El Salvador’s New Leader Inspires High Hopes Amid High Stakes”
Frances Jenner, Latin America Reports: “A comprehensive guide to El Salvador’s anti-corruption commission: A look at the current status of the International Commission Against Impunity in El Salvador and what it has achieved in the country.”
Brazil General – October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Last year’s elections in Brazil swept controversial right-wing populist firebrand Jair Bolsonaro into the presidency, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country.
The Economist: “Jair Bolsonaro has given up on his anti-graft crusade. The president is breaking his main campaign promise.”
Mexico General – July 1, 2018
Freedom House Rating – Partly Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Left-wing populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador (frequently called AMLO) and his MORENA party won the presidency and majorities in both houses of Congress in a watershed election in 2018, defeating Mexico’s two previously-dominant parties.
Eric Martin, Bloomberg: “How AMLO’s Plans to Transform Mexico Ran Into Reality”
The Year Ahead: Americas
Canada provincial and territorial (throughout the year); Belize village councils (June 23-July 28); Guatemala general second round (August 18); Bolivia presidential and legislative (October); Haiti parliamentary (October); Bolivia presidential and legislative (October 20); Canada general (on or before October 21 – exact date not set yet); Argentina presidential and legislative (October 27); Uruguay presidential and legislative (October 27); Colombia local (October 27); Guyana snap parliamentary (November); Trinidad and Tobago local (November) Dominica legislative (December); St. Kitts and Nevis legislative (February)
A protest against corruption in Guatemala City, May 30, 2015. The spring of 2015 saw a series of large demonstrations against corruption, which continues to be a major problem in Guatemala. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Eric Walter (CC BY-SA 4.0)
21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.
Comments
Share this:
Related
Category: This Week Tags: Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela