Upcoming Elections
Liberia By-Elections – July 29, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
When President George Weah, a former footballer, was elected in 2017, Liberia saw its first peaceful transition of power since 1944. The country holds elections to the Senate in 2020, but is due to hold a Senatorial by-election this year.
Dagbayonoh Kiah Nuyanfore II, Modern Ghana: “Liberians will go to the polls this Monday, July 29 in an election considered to be a test to President George Weah’s popularity and to how Liberians feel about his administration. The race is to choose a senator and a representative for Montserrado County, the largest county in the country.”
Lennart Dodoo, Front Page Africa: “Climaxing of campaign activities turned bloody on Saturday in District 15, Montserrado County after supporters of the opposition coalition candidate, Telia Urey and the ruling CDC candidate’s supporters clashed in a stone-throwing riot.”
Front Page Africa: “Liberia Elections Observation Network Releases Report Ahead of By-Election”
Zambia, Katuba By-Election – July 30, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Zambia’s next general election is due in 2021, but a by-election in Katuba, in the west of the country, because the incumbent – Patricia Mwashingwele of the opposition United Party for National Development (UPND) – died. The governing center-left Patriotic Front (PF) has 89 out of 166 in the unicameral National Assembly, and the main opposition liberal UPND has 58 seats. The 2016 presidential election was close – PF’s Edgar Lungu ultimately prevailed in a poll that was marred by tension and allegations of vote rigging but ultimately judged credible.
Chris Phiri, Zambia Reports: “People in Katuba Constituency are today electing a new Member of Parliament to replace late lawmaker Patricia Mwashingwele, who died on May 2.”
Somalia Jubaland State Presidential and Parliament (indirect) – August 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Somalia hasn’t held direct elections in 50 years at the federal level, and at the state level, only the de facto independent Somaliland holds one-person-one-vote polls. The other states have electoral colleges with clan elders as electors. Somalia has federal elections due in 2020 and 2021, and hopes to move toward a one-person-one-vote model. However, the August Jubaland elections are not direct (which is why they are not on our big map). Politics – and conflict – throughout Somalia is largely based on clans, but efforts have been made to move toward a politics based on political parties. The terrorist group al-Shabab remains a menace.
Jubaland is rich in natural resources, raising the stakes of the election. Kismayo, the capital of Jubaland, this month saw the biggest terrorist attack since an action led by Kenyan soldiers ousted al-Shabab from the city in 2012.
Aggrey Mutambo, The East African: “Farmaajo, Madobe lock horns over August polls: The political battle pitting the Somalia federal government against Jubbaland state appeared to worsen this week after Jubbaland President Ahmed Islam Madobe announced he had “suspended” co-operation with Mogadishu.”
Hussein Mohamed and Anemona Hartocollis, New York Times: “A suicide bomber walked into the mayor’s office in Mogadishu, Somalia’s capital, during a high-level security meeting on Wednesday and detonated explosives, seriously injuring the mayor and killing at least six people, according to local authorities.”
Al Jazeera: “Bombing claimed by al-Shabab took place shortly after a visit by the new UN envoy to Somalia, say officials.”
Michael Rubin, Washington Examiner: “Somalia’s president is no ally against terrorism”
Zimbabwe National Assembly By-Elections, Glen View South and Mangwe constituencies – September 7, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (improved from Not Free in 2019) – Government Type: Presidential Republic
A coup in 2017 led to the fall of Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s longtime dictator, who left a legacy of gross economic mismanagement and political repression. Mugabe had ruled Zimbabwe with the aid of former Soviet security advice since the transition of apartheid rule in 1979. The 2018 elections for parliament and president had a number of flaws but nonetheless did offer the hope of some semblance of democratic legitimacy to the government. Emmerson Mnangagwa of Mugabe’s ZANU-PF – a former intelligence chief nicknamed “The Crocodile” – narrowly won the presidential race, and promised “radical economic reforms.” However, critics say those reforms have not materialized as of yet, and a violent crackdown on the opposition following the elections echoed Mugabe’s tactics. Zimbabweans live with extreme poverty, food insecurity, and hyperinflation.
The Glen View South seat became vacant when Vimbai Tsvangirai-Java, the daughter of Mugabe’s main rival the late Morgan Tsvangirai, died in a car crash. Tsvangirai was leader of Zimbabwe’s main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), and members of his family still serve in the party. The Mangwe seat became vacant when ZANU-PF’s Obedingwa Mguni died of an illness. Glen VIew is near the capital, Harare, in the northeast of the country, and Mangwe is near Bulawayo, Zimbabwe’s second city, in the southwest of the country.
Delegation to assess electoral reform, International Republican Institute/National Democratic Institute: “Notable efforts are now underway to address the longstanding deficiencies in Zimbabwe’s electoral framework, which merit further support and encouragement. At the same time, public trust in the country’s electoral institutions remains low due to the failure to address the political context within which elections are conducted and to open up democratic space.”
Botswana Parliamentary – October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Botswana, the world’s second-largest producer of diamonds, is a stable democracy with regular free, fair, credible elections. In 2018, President Ian Khama stepped down exactly 10 years after his inauguration, in keeping with the constitutional limit of two terms in office (his predecessor had done the same thing). Mokgweetsi Masisi, the former vice president, is filling the role of the presidency until after the elections, when the National Assembly will choose a new president. Khama’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – founded by his father, Seretse Khama, protagonist of the 2017 film A United Kingdom – has dominated politics since independence in 1966, but soon after leaving office, Khama left the BDP to form a new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front. The split could open up debate on actual policy, or it could devolve into a personal power struggle.
The National Assembly will elect a new president following the parliamentary elections.
Wene Owino, The East African: “Theatre of the absurd plays out in Botswana power feud”
Mozambique Presidential, Legislative, and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since, but currently have a ceasefire). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.
RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities.Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth. In the upcoming elections, in addition to voting for president, citizens will elect provincial governors directly for the first time – previously, they had been appointed by the president.
Liesl Louw-Vaudran, Daily Maverick: “Mozambique’s electoral commission should do the right thing: An audit to remove doubts over voter registration figures would help achieve free and fair elections.”
Somaliland Legislative and Local – November 1, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: De facto independent state (technically part of the Federal Parliamentary Republic of Somalia)
Somaliland has de facto but not internationally-recognized independence from the failed state of Somalia. The last elections for the House of Representatives happened in 2005. The upcoming elections set for November 2019 were due in 2010 but faced multiple delays. Despite the lack of recognition, Somaliland is a functional state with more freedom and better governance than the rest of Somalia.
MENAFN – SomTribune: “The three national political parties of the Republic of Somaliland, Saturday [July 27], reached a landmark accord that brings the year-long differences among the parties to an end.”
Radio Dalsan: “In meetings with Somaliland’s leadership today, the United Nations Secretary-General’s Special Representative highlighted the importance of building on Somaliland’s achievements as well as preparing for upcoming elections there.”
Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – Early 2020 (delayed from October 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.
Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat.
Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections, which are likely delayed following a July vote by the National Assembly to extend its term in office (the National Assembly’s second extension). The mandates were set to expire October 29, 2019 and have been extended for two months, so the elections that had been due in October most likely will not happen before 2020.
Journal du Cameroun: “The mandate of Members of Parliament will thus be extended for a period of two months starting October 29. This is the second time their mandate is extended and is equally confirmation that the Legislative election can only take place next year.”
Reuters: “Cameroonian security forces moved on Tuesday to quell uprisings in two prisons by inmates protesting against the government’s crackdown on the Anglophone separatist movement and poor conditions of incarceration.”
Amnesty International: “Cameroon: Nearly 60 opposition members tortured by security forces”
Theodoric Meyer, Politico: “Two former aides to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) have signed on to represent Cameroon’s government in Washington despite recent allegations of serious human rights abuses by the government.”
Burundi Presidential and Legislative – May 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
In 2015, President Pierre Nkurunziza ran for a third term, which critics said was unconstitutional. Nkurunziza’s decision sparked a political crisis. The opposition boycotted the election. Nkurunziza won, but the election was marred by violence and a coup attempt. In 2018, Nkurunziza said he would step down in 2020. Burundi’s 12-year civil war ended in 2005, but violence and authoritarianism have been on the rise. Many Burundians are nervous about the upcoming polls.
Sam Mednick, AP: “In Burundi, fears that next year’s vote will be bloody again”
Lewis Mudge, Human Rights Watch: “With the 2020 elections around the corner, journalists expect the government will find more ways of hampering their work, including increased surveillance and restrictive measures by the government-controlled National Communication Council (CNC), the state’s media regulator. The recent appointment of a former Imbonerakure chief – who oversaw the ruling party’s youth league when they committed egregious abuses – to the head of the state broadcaster sends a chilling message. “
Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Following three years of protests, Ethiopia’s ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners and opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful. However, violence could threaten Abiy’s reforms.
In the 2015 elections, the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats.
The Economist: “Ethnic separatists are challenging Ethiopia’s unity. Can Abiy Ahmed, the prime minister, stop the country from falling apart?”
Berhanu Abegaz, Borkena: “Ethiopia: Three Roadmaps for a Post-EPRDF Transition”
Kurt Davis Jr., The Africa Report: “Ethiopia could be the first African country to show China it has bargaining power”
Côte d’Ivoire Presidential and Legislative – October 31, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Catholic News Service, Crux: “Bishops in the Ivory Coast have warned of a new civil war in the run-up to 2020 elections, unless urgent action is taken to ease communal tensions and withdraw weapons in the West African state. ‘A general climate of fear now reigns throughout our population, linked to recurrent intercommunal conflicts, issues of insecurity, illicit forest occupation and gold panning and Ivorian identity problems,’ said the 19-member bishops’ conference.”
Burkina Faso General – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
RFI: “For a week, the representatives of the parties of the Burkinabe presidential majority and those of the opposition discussed the 2020 elections, the security and the social situation of the country.”
RFI (in French): “Burkina Faso: Political Consensus Around the 2020 Elections” (Interview with opposition leader Zéphirin Diabré)
AFP: “Armed men described as jihadists raided a village in Burkina Faso’s restive north, killing 15 people, plundering and burning shops and motorbikes, a regional governor said Saturday [July 15]….The poor Sahel state has been battling a rising wave of jihadist attacks over the last four years which began in the north but have since spread to the east, near the border with Togo and Benin….Those groups are believed to be responsible for around 500 deaths since 2015. The capital Ouagadougou has been attacked three times.”
Tanzania General – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Tanzania’s socialist Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and its predecessors have been in power since 1961. In the 2015 elections, deemed imperfect but credible by observers, John Magufuli won, and has since launched a crackdown on the opposition, media, civil society, and the private sector. The main opposition center-right Chadema, whose leader Freeman Mbowe recently spent nearly five months in prison on charges of sedition, currently holds 62 out of 384 seats in the unicameral National Assembly. Edward Lowassa, a former CCM prime minister who ran for president in 2015 as the candidate of Chadema and a coalition of other opposition parties, won 40 percent of the vote. Lowassa has since returned to CCM along with other opposition figures who have been bribed or bullied into crossing the aisle and joining the ruling party.
The Economist notes, “Today Tanzania is on the descent from patchy democracy towards slapdash dictatorship.”
Erick Kabendera, The East African: “No end in sight as Tanzania’s ruling party CCM goes for ‘dissenters’”
AFP: “Some turn up dead or injured. Others are never heard of again: A wave of kidnappings in Tanzania that appears to target critics of the government has set the nation on edge.”
Togo Presidential – Due 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
This election is happening in the context of widespread protests that began in 2017 demanding the resignation of President Faure Gnassingbé, whose family has ruled Togo for 50 years, the longest-ruling family in Africa. In December 2018, the C14 coalition of opposition parties boycotted legislative elections and their supporters did not vote, but Gnassingbé’s party still managed to lose seats. However, a brutal crackdown has led to reduced morale for the opposition.
Dwayne Wong (Omowale), Medium: “Faure Gnassingbé’s Bid for a Fourth Term is an Insult to Togo’s Democracy”
Uganda General – February 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Partly Free this year) – Government Type: Presidential Republic
President Yoweri Museveni has held power since 1986 and looks likely to seek a sixth term. Musaveni is seen as an ally to Western governments on counterterrorism issues, despite concerns about human rights and civil liberties.
Musaveni’s National Resistance Movement (NRM), an authoritarian nationalist party, was originally a militia involved in the struggle to topple the government in 1986. In the last presidential election in 2016 (which was marred by an uneven playing field and government use of state resources and security services for political purposes), which wasn Kizza Besigye of the main opposition center-right Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) won 35.6 percent, coming in second. NRM holds 293 out of 426 seats in parliament, and FDC holds 36 (other opposition parties hold 21).
Al Jazeera: “Bobi Wine formally declares presidential bid for 2021 Uganda vote: He was wearing a red tie and his signature red beret, which he has called a ‘symbol of resistance.’”
Jonathan Kamoga, The East African: “Amendments to electoral laws [put forward] this past week have caused a storm within Uganda’s opposition and civil society, with many questioning the government’s willingness to conduct free and fair elections in 2021.”
The Observer (Uganda): “FDC offers alternative electoral reforms, ridicules gov’t proposals”
Umaru Kashaka, New Vision: “The recent formation of a team by Kyadondo East MP Robert Kyagulanyi to spearhead his mobilization activities countrywide and Opposition activist Dr. Kizza Besigye’s ‘state of the people’s address mean political temperatures are rising, analysts have said. Kyagulanyi, also known as Bobi Wine, unveiled a team of 140 coordinators last Wednesday, saying he was answering a question on everyone’s lips.”
Isaac Mufumba & Yvonne Isabella Mugeni, The Monitor: “Opposition activist Kizza Besigye, who styled himself the “people’s president” after the 2016 General Election that he claims he won but was rigged out, earlier this year set up a ‘people’s parliament’ to complete his ‘people’s government’ which he instituted in 2016. On Thursday, Dr Besigye hosted the ‘people’s parliament’ at his home in Kasangati, Wakiso District, and delivered what he called the ‘state of the people’s address.’”
Anthony Wesaka, Daily Monitor: “Bobi, Besigye dragged to court: A concerned citizen has sued Kyadondo East MP Robert Kyagulanyi, aka Bobi Wine, and former FDC president Kizza Besigye for heading what he calls unregistered political organisations.”
Sudan Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
In April, nonviolent demonstrations ousted Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir. In June 2019, around the 30th anniversary of Tiananmen Square, Sudanese troops massacred citizens protesting the regime.
France24: “Fresh protests in Sudan over investigation into deadly June crackdown”
Jason Burke and Zeinab Mohammed Salih, The Guardian: “Sudanese protest leaders have cancelled planned talks with the country’s ruling generals as they visited a town where at least five school children were shot dead on Monday.”
Michelle Gavin, Council on Foreign Relations: “Last week’s reported coup attempt, however dubious, is a reminder of how spoilers, real or imagined, can become a pretext for tightening the grip that the military, and particularly the brutal Rapid Support Forces, have on the country, suffocating the possibility of democratic change.”
Robbie Gramer, Foreign Policy: “U.S. Balked at Sanctions on Sudan. The Trump administration feared that taking action against the junta for killing protesters might upend peace talks.”
Past Elections
Mauritania Presidential – June 22, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Mauritania’s incumbent president, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, came to power in a military coup in 2009 and the country is rated “not free” by Freedom House, but some hope that political space could be opening up, albeit slowly. While most believed that the ruling Union for the Republic party’s candidate, Defense Minister Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, would win (and he was indeed declared the winner), opposition candidates, including anti-slavery activist Biram Dah Abeid, participated. This contrasts with the 2014 presidential election, which the opposition boycotted. There are concerns about the electoral process and the lack of international observers.
Human Rights Watch: “Mauritanian authorities detained for a week without charge at least three pro-opposition public figures apparently as part of efforts to smother dissent over the outcome of a June 22 presidential election, Human Rights Watch said [July 23]. Authorities also shut down the Internet and arrested dozens of opposition activists.”
Malawi Tripartite (Presidential, Legislative, Local) – May 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
David Pilling and Golden Matonga, Financial Times: “Malawi’s ‘Tipp-Ex president’ Mutharika faces high court challenge. Claims of vote rigging spark political crisis in one of world’s poorest countries….It has been two months since Malawi’s Peter Mutharika was sworn in after winning an election that earned him the nickname ‘Tipp-Ex president.’ The jibe is a reference to the correction fluid that the opposition claims was used to alter of results with a vote that gave the 79-year-old former law professor a second term.
Nigeria General – February 23, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Party Free Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Bukola Adebayo, CNN: “US imposes visa sanctions on Nigerians who undermined democracy during elections”
Nic Cheeseman, The Conversation: “WhatsApp played a big role in the Nigerian election. Not all of it was bad”
Democratic Republic of the Congo General – December 30, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
The DRC’s December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu. When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi. The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country, but both have returned.
AFP: “The two rival political camps in DR Congo Friday forged a pact on forming a government, six months after President Felix Tshisekedi took power from veteran ruler Joseph Kabila, officials said….Tshisekedi’s CACH alliance in the legislature has been holding tortuous talks with [Kabila’s] FCC to break the stalemate.”
Stanis Bujakera, Reuters: “[Three anonymous sources] said the FCC would control the ministries of defense, finance, justice as well as the ministry of the public portfolio, which oversees state companies like copper and cobalt miner Gecamines, a joint venture partner of Glencore and China Molybdenum. CACH will control the ministries of the interior, foreign affairs, budget and economy, the sources said.”
Mail and Guardian: “Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) authorities have banned political rallies [last] week in the capital Kinshasa because of tensions between supporters of President Felix Tshisekedi and those of former leader Joseph Kabila, police said on Sunday.”
The Gambia Presidential – December 1, 2016 and Legislative – April 6, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
In December 2016, The Gambia began a remarkable transition to democracy. Citizens removed dictator Yahya Jammeh peacefully, via the ballot box, and began the process of establishing a free society.
AFP: “Former members of a Gambian death squad known as the Junglers on Thursday accused ex-president Yahya Jammeh of ordering the murder of two US citizens in 2013, having already confessed to the killing of a well known journalist.”
AFP: “Gambia’s former president Yahya Jammeh ordered the massacre of some 30 migrants he said were “mercenaries” sent to topple him in 2005, a member of the former strongman’s hit squad told a truth commission on Tuesday.”
Al Jazeera: “Gambian soldier names ex-president in reporter’s 2004 murder: Testimony marks first public confession tying former president Yahya Jammeh to killing of journalist Deyda Hydara.”
Africa This Week – July 29, 2019
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Last Updated: August 16, 2019 by 21votes
July 29, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Africa on Mondays. Click the map pins.
Liberia By-Elections – July 29, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
When President George Weah, a former footballer, was elected in 2017, Liberia saw its first peaceful transition of power since 1944. The country holds elections to the Senate in 2020, but is due to hold a Senatorial by-election this year.
Zambia, Katuba By-Election – July 30, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Zambia’s next general election is due in 2021, but a by-election in Katuba, in the west of the country, because the incumbent – Patricia Mwashingwele of the opposition United Party for National Development (UPND) – died. The governing center-left Patriotic Front (PF) has 89 out of 166 in the unicameral National Assembly, and the main opposition liberal UPND has 58 seats. The 2016 presidential election was close – PF’s Edgar Lungu ultimately prevailed in a poll that was marred by tension and allegations of vote rigging but ultimately judged credible.
Somalia Jubaland State Presidential and Parliament (indirect) – August 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Somalia hasn’t held direct elections in 50 years at the federal level, and at the state level, only the de facto independent Somaliland holds one-person-one-vote polls. The other states have electoral colleges with clan elders as electors. Somalia has federal elections due in 2020 and 2021, and hopes to move toward a one-person-one-vote model. However, the August Jubaland elections are not direct (which is why they are not on our big map). Politics – and conflict – throughout Somalia is largely based on clans, but efforts have been made to move toward a politics based on political parties. The terrorist group al-Shabab remains a menace.
Jubaland is rich in natural resources, raising the stakes of the election. Kismayo, the capital of Jubaland, this month saw the biggest terrorist attack since an action led by Kenyan soldiers ousted al-Shabab from the city in 2012.
Zimbabwe National Assembly By-Elections, Glen View South and Mangwe constituencies – September 7, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (improved from Not Free in 2019) – Government Type: Presidential Republic
A coup in 2017 led to the fall of Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s longtime dictator, who left a legacy of gross economic mismanagement and political repression. Mugabe had ruled Zimbabwe with the aid of former Soviet security advice since the transition of apartheid rule in 1979. The 2018 elections for parliament and president had a number of flaws but nonetheless did offer the hope of some semblance of democratic legitimacy to the government. Emmerson Mnangagwa of Mugabe’s ZANU-PF – a former intelligence chief nicknamed “The Crocodile” – narrowly won the presidential race, and promised “radical economic reforms.” However, critics say those reforms have not materialized as of yet, and a violent crackdown on the opposition following the elections echoed Mugabe’s tactics. Zimbabweans live with extreme poverty, food insecurity, and hyperinflation.
The Glen View South seat became vacant when Vimbai Tsvangirai-Java, the daughter of Mugabe’s main rival the late Morgan Tsvangirai, died in a car crash. Tsvangirai was leader of Zimbabwe’s main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), and members of his family still serve in the party. The Mangwe seat became vacant when ZANU-PF’s Obedingwa Mguni died of an illness. Glen VIew is near the capital, Harare, in the northeast of the country, and Mangwe is near Bulawayo, Zimbabwe’s second city, in the southwest of the country.
Botswana Parliamentary – October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Botswana, the world’s second-largest producer of diamonds, is a stable democracy with regular free, fair, credible elections. In 2018, President Ian Khama stepped down exactly 10 years after his inauguration, in keeping with the constitutional limit of two terms in office (his predecessor had done the same thing). Mokgweetsi Masisi, the former vice president, is filling the role of the presidency until after the elections, when the National Assembly will choose a new president. Khama’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – founded by his father, Seretse Khama, protagonist of the 2017 film A United Kingdom – has dominated politics since independence in 1966, but soon after leaving office, Khama left the BDP to form a new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front. The split could open up debate on actual policy, or it could devolve into a personal power struggle.
The National Assembly will elect a new president following the parliamentary elections.
Mozambique Presidential, Legislative, and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since, but currently have a ceasefire). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.
RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities.Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth. In the upcoming elections, in addition to voting for president, citizens will elect provincial governors directly for the first time – previously, they had been appointed by the president.
Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – Early 2020 (delayed from October 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.
Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat.
Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections, which are likely delayed following a July vote by the National Assembly to extend its term in office (the National Assembly’s second extension). The mandates were set to expire October 29, 2019 and have been extended for two months, so the elections that had been due in October most likely will not happen before 2020.
Burundi Presidential and Legislative – May 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
In 2015, President Pierre Nkurunziza ran for a third term, which critics said was unconstitutional. Nkurunziza’s decision sparked a political crisis. The opposition boycotted the election. Nkurunziza won, but the election was marred by violence and a coup attempt. In 2018, Nkurunziza said he would step down in 2020. Burundi’s 12-year civil war ended in 2005, but violence and authoritarianism have been on the rise. Many Burundians are nervous about the upcoming polls.
Sam Mednick, AP: “In Burundi, fears that next year’s vote will be bloody again”
Lewis Mudge, Human Rights Watch: “With the 2020 elections around the corner, journalists expect the government will find more ways of hampering their work, including increased surveillance and restrictive measures by the government-controlled National Communication Council (CNC), the state’s media regulator. The recent appointment of a former Imbonerakure chief – who oversaw the ruling party’s youth league when they committed egregious abuses – to the head of the state broadcaster sends a chilling message. “
Somaliland Legislative and Local – November 1, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: De facto independent state (technically part of the Federal Parliamentary Republic of Somalia)
Somaliland has de facto but not internationally-recognized independence from the failed state of Somalia. The last elections for the House of Representatives happened in 2005. The upcoming elections set for November 2019 were due in 2010 but faced multiple delays. Despite the lack of recognition, Somaliland is a functional state with more freedom and better governance than the rest of Somalia.
Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Following three years of protests, Ethiopia’s ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners and opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful. However, violence could threaten Abiy’s reforms.
In the 2015 elections, the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats.
Côte d’Ivoire Presidential and Legislative – October 31, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Burkina Faso General - October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Tanzania General - October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Tanzania’s socialist Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and its predecessors have been in power since 1961. In the 2015 elections, deemed imperfect but credible by observers, John Magufuli won, and has since launched a crackdown on the opposition, media, civil society, and the private sector. The main opposition center-right Chadema, whose leader Freeman Mbowe recently spent nearly five months in prison on charges of sedition, currently holds 62 out of 384 seats in the unicameral National Assembly. Edward Lowassa, a former CCM prime minister who ran for president in 2015 as the candidate of Chadema and a coalition of other opposition parties, won 40 percent of the vote. Lowassa has since returned to CCM along with other opposition figures who have been bribed or bullied into crossing the aisle and joining the ruling party.
The Economist notes, “Today Tanzania is on the descent from patchy democracy towards slapdash dictatorship.”
Uganda General – February 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Partly Free this year) – Government Type: Presidential Republic
President Yoweri Museveni has held power since 1986 and looks likely to seek a sixth term. Musaveni is seen as an ally to Western governments on counterterrorism issues, despite concerns about human rights and civil liberties.
Musaveni’s National Resistance Movement (NRM), an authoritarian nationalist party, was originally a militia involved in the struggle to topple the government in 1986. In the last presidential election in 2016 (which was marred by an uneven playing field and government use of state resources and security services for political purposes), which wasn Kizza Besigye of the main opposition center-right Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) won 35.6 percent, coming in second. NRM holds 293 out of 426 seats in parliament, and FDC holds 36 (other opposition parties hold 21).
Sudan Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
In April, nonviolent demonstrations ousted Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir. In June 2019, around the 30th anniversary of Tiananmen Square, Sudanese troops massacred citizens protesting the regime.
Mauritania Presidential – June 22, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Mauritania’s incumbent president, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, came to power in a military coup in 2009 and the country is rated “not free” by Freedom House, but some hope that political space could be opening up, albeit slowly. While most believed that the ruling Union for the Republic party’s candidate, Defense Minister Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, would win (and he was indeed declared the winner), opposition candidates, including anti-slavery activist Biram Dah Abeid, participated. This contrasts with the 2014 presidential election, which the opposition boycotted. There are concerns about the electoral process and the lack of international observers.
Malawi Tripartite (Presidential, Legislative, Local) – May 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Nigeria General – February 23, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Party Free Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Democratic Republic of the Congo General – December 30, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
The DRC’s December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu. When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi. The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country, but both have returned.
The Gambia Presidential – December 1, 2016 and Legislative – April 6, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
In December 2016, The Gambia began a remarkable transition to democracy. Citizens removed dictator Yahya Jammeh peacefully, via the ballot box, and began the process of establishing a free society.
Upcoming Elections
Liberia By-Elections – July 29, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
When President George Weah, a former footballer, was elected in 2017, Liberia saw its first peaceful transition of power since 1944. The country holds elections to the Senate in 2020, but is due to hold a Senatorial by-election this year.
Dagbayonoh Kiah Nuyanfore II, Modern Ghana: “Liberians will go to the polls this Monday, July 29 in an election considered to be a test to President George Weah’s popularity and to how Liberians feel about his administration. The race is to choose a senator and a representative for Montserrado County, the largest county in the country.”
Lennart Dodoo, Front Page Africa: “Climaxing of campaign activities turned bloody on Saturday in District 15, Montserrado County after supporters of the opposition coalition candidate, Telia Urey and the ruling CDC candidate’s supporters clashed in a stone-throwing riot.”
Front Page Africa: “Liberia Elections Observation Network Releases Report Ahead of By-Election”
Zambia, Katuba By-Election – July 30, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Zambia’s next general election is due in 2021, but a by-election in Katuba, in the west of the country, because the incumbent – Patricia Mwashingwele of the opposition United Party for National Development (UPND) – died. The governing center-left Patriotic Front (PF) has 89 out of 166 in the unicameral National Assembly, and the main opposition liberal UPND has 58 seats. The 2016 presidential election was close – PF’s Edgar Lungu ultimately prevailed in a poll that was marred by tension and allegations of vote rigging but ultimately judged credible.
Chris Phiri, Zambia Reports: “People in Katuba Constituency are today electing a new Member of Parliament to replace late lawmaker Patricia Mwashingwele, who died on May 2.”
Somalia Jubaland State Presidential and Parliament (indirect) – August 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Somalia hasn’t held direct elections in 50 years at the federal level, and at the state level, only the de facto independent Somaliland holds one-person-one-vote polls. The other states have electoral colleges with clan elders as electors. Somalia has federal elections due in 2020 and 2021, and hopes to move toward a one-person-one-vote model. However, the August Jubaland elections are not direct (which is why they are not on our big map). Politics – and conflict – throughout Somalia is largely based on clans, but efforts have been made to move toward a politics based on political parties. The terrorist group al-Shabab remains a menace.
Jubaland is rich in natural resources, raising the stakes of the election. Kismayo, the capital of Jubaland, this month saw the biggest terrorist attack since an action led by Kenyan soldiers ousted al-Shabab from the city in 2012.
Aggrey Mutambo, The East African: “Farmaajo, Madobe lock horns over August polls: The political battle pitting the Somalia federal government against Jubbaland state appeared to worsen this week after Jubbaland President Ahmed Islam Madobe announced he had “suspended” co-operation with Mogadishu.”
Hussein Mohamed and Anemona Hartocollis, New York Times: “A suicide bomber walked into the mayor’s office in Mogadishu, Somalia’s capital, during a high-level security meeting on Wednesday and detonated explosives, seriously injuring the mayor and killing at least six people, according to local authorities.”
Al Jazeera: “Bombing claimed by al-Shabab took place shortly after a visit by the new UN envoy to Somalia, say officials.”
Michael Rubin, Washington Examiner: “Somalia’s president is no ally against terrorism”
Zimbabwe National Assembly By-Elections, Glen View South and Mangwe constituencies – September 7, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (improved from Not Free in 2019) – Government Type: Presidential Republic
A coup in 2017 led to the fall of Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s longtime dictator, who left a legacy of gross economic mismanagement and political repression. Mugabe had ruled Zimbabwe with the aid of former Soviet security advice since the transition of apartheid rule in 1979. The 2018 elections for parliament and president had a number of flaws but nonetheless did offer the hope of some semblance of democratic legitimacy to the government. Emmerson Mnangagwa of Mugabe’s ZANU-PF – a former intelligence chief nicknamed “The Crocodile” – narrowly won the presidential race, and promised “radical economic reforms.” However, critics say those reforms have not materialized as of yet, and a violent crackdown on the opposition following the elections echoed Mugabe’s tactics. Zimbabweans live with extreme poverty, food insecurity, and hyperinflation.
The Glen View South seat became vacant when Vimbai Tsvangirai-Java, the daughter of Mugabe’s main rival the late Morgan Tsvangirai, died in a car crash. Tsvangirai was leader of Zimbabwe’s main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), and members of his family still serve in the party. The Mangwe seat became vacant when ZANU-PF’s Obedingwa Mguni died of an illness. Glen VIew is near the capital, Harare, in the northeast of the country, and Mangwe is near Bulawayo, Zimbabwe’s second city, in the southwest of the country.
Delegation to assess electoral reform, International Republican Institute/National Democratic Institute: “Notable efforts are now underway to address the longstanding deficiencies in Zimbabwe’s electoral framework, which merit further support and encouragement. At the same time, public trust in the country’s electoral institutions remains low due to the failure to address the political context within which elections are conducted and to open up democratic space.”
Botswana Parliamentary – October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Botswana, the world’s second-largest producer of diamonds, is a stable democracy with regular free, fair, credible elections. In 2018, President Ian Khama stepped down exactly 10 years after his inauguration, in keeping with the constitutional limit of two terms in office (his predecessor had done the same thing). Mokgweetsi Masisi, the former vice president, is filling the role of the presidency until after the elections, when the National Assembly will choose a new president. Khama’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – founded by his father, Seretse Khama, protagonist of the 2017 film A United Kingdom – has dominated politics since independence in 1966, but soon after leaving office, Khama left the BDP to form a new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front. The split could open up debate on actual policy, or it could devolve into a personal power struggle.
The National Assembly will elect a new president following the parliamentary elections.
Wene Owino, The East African: “Theatre of the absurd plays out in Botswana power feud”
Mozambique Presidential, Legislative, and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since, but currently have a ceasefire). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.
RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities.Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth. In the upcoming elections, in addition to voting for president, citizens will elect provincial governors directly for the first time – previously, they had been appointed by the president.
Liesl Louw-Vaudran, Daily Maverick: “Mozambique’s electoral commission should do the right thing: An audit to remove doubts over voter registration figures would help achieve free and fair elections.”
Somaliland Legislative and Local – November 1, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: De facto independent state (technically part of the Federal Parliamentary Republic of Somalia)
Somaliland has de facto but not internationally-recognized independence from the failed state of Somalia. The last elections for the House of Representatives happened in 2005. The upcoming elections set for November 2019 were due in 2010 but faced multiple delays. Despite the lack of recognition, Somaliland is a functional state with more freedom and better governance than the rest of Somalia.
MENAFN – SomTribune: “The three national political parties of the Republic of Somaliland, Saturday [July 27], reached a landmark accord that brings the year-long differences among the parties to an end.”
Radio Dalsan: “In meetings with Somaliland’s leadership today, the United Nations Secretary-General’s Special Representative highlighted the importance of building on Somaliland’s achievements as well as preparing for upcoming elections there.”
Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – Early 2020 (delayed from October 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.
Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat.
Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections, which are likely delayed following a July vote by the National Assembly to extend its term in office (the National Assembly’s second extension). The mandates were set to expire October 29, 2019 and have been extended for two months, so the elections that had been due in October most likely will not happen before 2020.
Journal du Cameroun: “The mandate of Members of Parliament will thus be extended for a period of two months starting October 29. This is the second time their mandate is extended and is equally confirmation that the Legislative election can only take place next year.”
Reuters: “Cameroonian security forces moved on Tuesday to quell uprisings in two prisons by inmates protesting against the government’s crackdown on the Anglophone separatist movement and poor conditions of incarceration.”
Amnesty International: “Cameroon: Nearly 60 opposition members tortured by security forces”
Theodoric Meyer, Politico: “Two former aides to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) have signed on to represent Cameroon’s government in Washington despite recent allegations of serious human rights abuses by the government.”
Burundi Presidential and Legislative – May 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
In 2015, President Pierre Nkurunziza ran for a third term, which critics said was unconstitutional. Nkurunziza’s decision sparked a political crisis. The opposition boycotted the election. Nkurunziza won, but the election was marred by violence and a coup attempt. In 2018, Nkurunziza said he would step down in 2020. Burundi’s 12-year civil war ended in 2005, but violence and authoritarianism have been on the rise. Many Burundians are nervous about the upcoming polls.
Sam Mednick, AP: “In Burundi, fears that next year’s vote will be bloody again”
Lewis Mudge, Human Rights Watch: “With the 2020 elections around the corner, journalists expect the government will find more ways of hampering their work, including increased surveillance and restrictive measures by the government-controlled National Communication Council (CNC), the state’s media regulator. The recent appointment of a former Imbonerakure chief – who oversaw the ruling party’s youth league when they committed egregious abuses – to the head of the state broadcaster sends a chilling message. “
Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Following three years of protests, Ethiopia’s ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners and opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful. However, violence could threaten Abiy’s reforms.
In the 2015 elections, the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats.
The Economist: “Ethnic separatists are challenging Ethiopia’s unity. Can Abiy Ahmed, the prime minister, stop the country from falling apart?”
Berhanu Abegaz, Borkena: “Ethiopia: Three Roadmaps for a Post-EPRDF Transition”
Kurt Davis Jr., The Africa Report: “Ethiopia could be the first African country to show China it has bargaining power”
Côte d’Ivoire Presidential and Legislative – October 31, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Catholic News Service, Crux: “Bishops in the Ivory Coast have warned of a new civil war in the run-up to 2020 elections, unless urgent action is taken to ease communal tensions and withdraw weapons in the West African state. ‘A general climate of fear now reigns throughout our population, linked to recurrent intercommunal conflicts, issues of insecurity, illicit forest occupation and gold panning and Ivorian identity problems,’ said the 19-member bishops’ conference.”
Burkina Faso General – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
RFI: “For a week, the representatives of the parties of the Burkinabe presidential majority and those of the opposition discussed the 2020 elections, the security and the social situation of the country.”
RFI (in French): “Burkina Faso: Political Consensus Around the 2020 Elections” (Interview with opposition leader Zéphirin Diabré)
AFP: “Armed men described as jihadists raided a village in Burkina Faso’s restive north, killing 15 people, plundering and burning shops and motorbikes, a regional governor said Saturday [July 15]….The poor Sahel state has been battling a rising wave of jihadist attacks over the last four years which began in the north but have since spread to the east, near the border with Togo and Benin….Those groups are believed to be responsible for around 500 deaths since 2015. The capital Ouagadougou has been attacked three times.”
Tanzania General – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Tanzania’s socialist Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and its predecessors have been in power since 1961. In the 2015 elections, deemed imperfect but credible by observers, John Magufuli won, and has since launched a crackdown on the opposition, media, civil society, and the private sector. The main opposition center-right Chadema, whose leader Freeman Mbowe recently spent nearly five months in prison on charges of sedition, currently holds 62 out of 384 seats in the unicameral National Assembly. Edward Lowassa, a former CCM prime minister who ran for president in 2015 as the candidate of Chadema and a coalition of other opposition parties, won 40 percent of the vote. Lowassa has since returned to CCM along with other opposition figures who have been bribed or bullied into crossing the aisle and joining the ruling party.
The Economist notes, “Today Tanzania is on the descent from patchy democracy towards slapdash dictatorship.”
Erick Kabendera, The East African: “No end in sight as Tanzania’s ruling party CCM goes for ‘dissenters’”
AFP: “Some turn up dead or injured. Others are never heard of again: A wave of kidnappings in Tanzania that appears to target critics of the government has set the nation on edge.”
Togo Presidential – Due 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
This election is happening in the context of widespread protests that began in 2017 demanding the resignation of President Faure Gnassingbé, whose family has ruled Togo for 50 years, the longest-ruling family in Africa. In December 2018, the C14 coalition of opposition parties boycotted legislative elections and their supporters did not vote, but Gnassingbé’s party still managed to lose seats. However, a brutal crackdown has led to reduced morale for the opposition.
Dwayne Wong (Omowale), Medium: “Faure Gnassingbé’s Bid for a Fourth Term is an Insult to Togo’s Democracy”
Uganda General – February 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Partly Free this year) – Government Type: Presidential Republic
President Yoweri Museveni has held power since 1986 and looks likely to seek a sixth term. Musaveni is seen as an ally to Western governments on counterterrorism issues, despite concerns about human rights and civil liberties.
Musaveni’s National Resistance Movement (NRM), an authoritarian nationalist party, was originally a militia involved in the struggle to topple the government in 1986. In the last presidential election in 2016 (which was marred by an uneven playing field and government use of state resources and security services for political purposes), which wasn Kizza Besigye of the main opposition center-right Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) won 35.6 percent, coming in second. NRM holds 293 out of 426 seats in parliament, and FDC holds 36 (other opposition parties hold 21).
Al Jazeera: “Bobi Wine formally declares presidential bid for 2021 Uganda vote: He was wearing a red tie and his signature red beret, which he has called a ‘symbol of resistance.’”
Jonathan Kamoga, The East African: “Amendments to electoral laws [put forward] this past week have caused a storm within Uganda’s opposition and civil society, with many questioning the government’s willingness to conduct free and fair elections in 2021.”
The Observer (Uganda): “FDC offers alternative electoral reforms, ridicules gov’t proposals”
Umaru Kashaka, New Vision: “The recent formation of a team by Kyadondo East MP Robert Kyagulanyi to spearhead his mobilization activities countrywide and Opposition activist Dr. Kizza Besigye’s ‘state of the people’s address mean political temperatures are rising, analysts have said. Kyagulanyi, also known as Bobi Wine, unveiled a team of 140 coordinators last Wednesday, saying he was answering a question on everyone’s lips.”
Isaac Mufumba & Yvonne Isabella Mugeni, The Monitor: “Opposition activist Kizza Besigye, who styled himself the “people’s president” after the 2016 General Election that he claims he won but was rigged out, earlier this year set up a ‘people’s parliament’ to complete his ‘people’s government’ which he instituted in 2016. On Thursday, Dr Besigye hosted the ‘people’s parliament’ at his home in Kasangati, Wakiso District, and delivered what he called the ‘state of the people’s address.’”
Anthony Wesaka, Daily Monitor: “Bobi, Besigye dragged to court: A concerned citizen has sued Kyadondo East MP Robert Kyagulanyi, aka Bobi Wine, and former FDC president Kizza Besigye for heading what he calls unregistered political organisations.”
Sudan Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
In April, nonviolent demonstrations ousted Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir. In June 2019, around the 30th anniversary of Tiananmen Square, Sudanese troops massacred citizens protesting the regime.
France24: “Fresh protests in Sudan over investigation into deadly June crackdown”
Jason Burke and Zeinab Mohammed Salih, The Guardian: “Sudanese protest leaders have cancelled planned talks with the country’s ruling generals as they visited a town where at least five school children were shot dead on Monday.”
Michelle Gavin, Council on Foreign Relations: “Last week’s reported coup attempt, however dubious, is a reminder of how spoilers, real or imagined, can become a pretext for tightening the grip that the military, and particularly the brutal Rapid Support Forces, have on the country, suffocating the possibility of democratic change.”
Robbie Gramer, Foreign Policy: “U.S. Balked at Sanctions on Sudan. The Trump administration feared that taking action against the junta for killing protesters might upend peace talks.”
Past Elections
Mauritania Presidential – June 22, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Mauritania’s incumbent president, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, came to power in a military coup in 2009 and the country is rated “not free” by Freedom House, but some hope that political space could be opening up, albeit slowly. While most believed that the ruling Union for the Republic party’s candidate, Defense Minister Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, would win (and he was indeed declared the winner), opposition candidates, including anti-slavery activist Biram Dah Abeid, participated. This contrasts with the 2014 presidential election, which the opposition boycotted. There are concerns about the electoral process and the lack of international observers.
Human Rights Watch: “Mauritanian authorities detained for a week without charge at least three pro-opposition public figures apparently as part of efforts to smother dissent over the outcome of a June 22 presidential election, Human Rights Watch said [July 23]. Authorities also shut down the Internet and arrested dozens of opposition activists.”
Malawi Tripartite (Presidential, Legislative, Local) – May 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
David Pilling and Golden Matonga, Financial Times: “Malawi’s ‘Tipp-Ex president’ Mutharika faces high court challenge. Claims of vote rigging spark political crisis in one of world’s poorest countries….It has been two months since Malawi’s Peter Mutharika was sworn in after winning an election that earned him the nickname ‘Tipp-Ex president.’ The jibe is a reference to the correction fluid that the opposition claims was used to alter of results with a vote that gave the 79-year-old former law professor a second term.
Nigeria General – February 23, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Party Free Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Bukola Adebayo, CNN: “US imposes visa sanctions on Nigerians who undermined democracy during elections”
Nic Cheeseman, The Conversation: “WhatsApp played a big role in the Nigerian election. Not all of it was bad”
Democratic Republic of the Congo General – December 30, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
The DRC’s December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu. When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi. The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country, but both have returned.
AFP: “The two rival political camps in DR Congo Friday forged a pact on forming a government, six months after President Felix Tshisekedi took power from veteran ruler Joseph Kabila, officials said….Tshisekedi’s CACH alliance in the legislature has been holding tortuous talks with [Kabila’s] FCC to break the stalemate.”
Stanis Bujakera, Reuters: “[Three anonymous sources] said the FCC would control the ministries of defense, finance, justice as well as the ministry of the public portfolio, which oversees state companies like copper and cobalt miner Gecamines, a joint venture partner of Glencore and China Molybdenum. CACH will control the ministries of the interior, foreign affairs, budget and economy, the sources said.”
Mail and Guardian: “Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) authorities have banned political rallies [last] week in the capital Kinshasa because of tensions between supporters of President Felix Tshisekedi and those of former leader Joseph Kabila, police said on Sunday.”
The Gambia Presidential – December 1, 2016 and Legislative – April 6, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
In December 2016, The Gambia began a remarkable transition to democracy. Citizens removed dictator Yahya Jammeh peacefully, via the ballot box, and began the process of establishing a free society.
AFP: “Former members of a Gambian death squad known as the Junglers on Thursday accused ex-president Yahya Jammeh of ordering the murder of two US citizens in 2013, having already confessed to the killing of a well known journalist.”
AFP: “Gambia’s former president Yahya Jammeh ordered the massacre of some 30 migrants he said were “mercenaries” sent to topple him in 2005, a member of the former strongman’s hit squad told a truth commission on Tuesday.”
Al Jazeera: “Gambian soldier names ex-president in reporter’s 2004 murder: Testimony marks first public confession tying former president Yahya Jammeh to killing of journalist Deyda Hydara.”
The Year Ahead: Africa
Guinea legislative (overdue – mandates of current legislators expired January 13 – date not set for new elections); Chad legislative (originally due in 2015 but have been delayed several times – unclear when they will. actually happen); Liberia by-elections (July 8 -postponed); Zambia by-election in Katuba (July 30); Namibia Oshakati East by-election (August 24); Botswana parliamentary (October); Cameroon parliamentary (October); Mozambique presidential, legislative, provincial (October 15); Somalia, Somaliland congressional and local (November 1, 2019 – tentative); Guinea-Bissau presidential (November 24); Namibia presidential and legislative (November 27); Mauritius legislative (December); Senegal local (December 1); Mali legislative (May 2020 – long overdue – additional delays possible)
21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.
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Category: This Week Tags: Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Gambia, Liberia, Malawi, Mauritania, Mozambique, Nigeria, Somalia, Somaliland, Sudan, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe