Upcoming Elections
Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation
Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.
However, in last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.
Max Seddon, Financial Times: “Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny jailed over protests. Police raid homes of allies, in a sign Kremlin is worried of growing dissent ahead of local polls.”
AFP: “Navalny’s arrest came after more than 22,000 people rallied in the Russian capital on Saturday [July 20] to demand free and fair local polls, incensed by the authorities’ refusal to put popular opposition candidates on the ballot for the Moscow parliament elections in September. The opposition says it was the largest protest since 2012 when tens of thousands rallied against election fraud during parliamentary polls.”
Nataliya Vasilyeva, AP: “At least eight Russian activists who have been barred from running for seats on the Moscow City Duma were summoned for questioning Thursday, as authorities ramped up the pressure on the opposition ahead of a major rally on Saturday.”
Vladimir Kara-Murza, Washington Post: “Those disqualified from the 2019 Moscow ballot are not just opponents who could speak the inconvenient truth to voters during the campaign. Many of them are, in fact, sure winners in their districts who can reshape the face of Moscow’s legislature and, with it, of Russian politics….”
Amnesty International: “Russia: Full-scale crackdown on opposition underway ahead of September elections”
Tom Balmforth, Reuters: “Russian opposition activists said on Thursday [July 25] they planned to press ahead with an unauthorized rally in Moscow this weekend despite overnight police searches and a raft of detentions, including the jailing of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny.”
Moldova Local – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.
The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.
NOI: “Sandu: Local elections will be a test for the ruling coalition”
Radio Chisinau: “Igor Dodon: Most likely, Ion Ceban will be the PSRM candidate for mayor of Chisinau”
Radio Chisinau: “Prime Minister Maia Sandu, the president of the Party of Action and Solidarity, reiterated today that the NOW bloc, which includes the Dignity and Truth Platform headed by Interior Minister Andrei Nastase, will have a joint candidate for the local elections for Chisinau mayor’s office.”
Vladimir Socor, Jamestown Foundation: “Moldova’s Socialist President Igor Dodon seems to have cast aside his old, pet ‘federalization’ project, which would have empowered Transnistria in Chisinau and thereby empowered Russia in a federalized Moldova (see EDM, July 17).”
Madalin Necsutu, Balkan Insight: “Moscow’s Man Eyes Second Term as Moldova’s President: As he seeks re-election in 2020, Igor Dodon has made no secret of his close ties to the Kremlin – but critics cay his assiduous courtship of Russia has not brought Moldova any obvious benefits.”
RFE/RL: “Moldova’s new Prime Minister Maia Sandu visited Brussels on July 24 where she signed three financial assistance agreements worth $45 million with Johannes Hahn, the EU’s enlargement commissioner.”
Belarus Parliamentary – November 17, 2019 and Presidential – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)
Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.
Robert Coalson, RFE/RL: “Flexible Stagnation: How Lukashenka Has Held On To Power For 25 Years In Belarus”
Andrew Higgins, New York Times: “Shunned by West and Wary of Russia, Belarus Gets Help From China”
Georgia Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Georgia holds competitive but imperfect elections. The eccentric oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili runs the show from behind the scenes, despite holding no official office. Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakasvili’s pro-European, pro-NATO United National Movement. Ivanishvili’s candidate, Salome Zurabishvili, won last year’s disputed presidential election. Georgian Dream did well in by-elections in May.
In June, a series of protests broke out over Russia, which occupies 20 percent of Georgia’s territory. The government’s brutal response could harm the coalition ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.
Margarita Antidze, Reuters: “Economist’s double life on the frontline of Georgia’s street protests”
Agenda.ge: “Ex-defense Minister detained, charged with incitement to violence at Tbilisi rallies”
Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Bruce Pannier, RFE/RL’s Qishloq Ovozi: “Kyrgyzstan’s Embattled Ex-President Scores, With An Assist From Putin”
Nurjamal Djanibekova, Eurasianet: “Kyrgyzstan: Ex-president returns triumphant with Putin’s support: The government must either admit it is subordinate to Moscow or risk provoking its ire.”
Will Cathcart, The Daily Beast: “The Crazy, Deadly Horse ‘Race’ That Explains Kyrgyzstan”
Past Elections
Ukraine Snap Parliamentary – July 21, 2019 (following presidential elections earlier this year)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate largely centers on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.
Zelensky’s Servant of the People party previously did not have any seats in the Rada, but swept the elections to win an unprecedented parliamentary majority. More than half of the MPs are new.
Volodymyr Verbyany, Bloomberg: “Frustrated at a parliament stacked with millionaire businessmen, [Ukrainian voters] backed little-known candidates from all walks of life — including a wedding photographer, a fitness-club director, an anesthesiologist and more than a dozen without stable work — to unexpectedly hand an anti-establishment party the country’s first-ever ruling majority.”
Gwendolyn Sasse, Carnegie Europe: “Between 60 and 70 percent of the elected members of parliament (MPs) will be newcomers to the Rada and many to official Ukrainian politics in general. This marks an unprecedented elite turnover in Ukraine….The key question is whether such a radical turnover in one of Ukraine’s least-trusted political institutions will translate into effective legislative work to bolster the reform process and bring peace to Ukraine, as Zelenskiy has promised.”
Andreas Umland, Altantic Council’s Ukraine Alert: “Against such a backdrop, the main question for the coming years will be less whether Ukraine becomes authoritarian or Russian or both as some alarmist commentators warn. Rather, the principal question will be whether the country’s ‘habitual elite continuity’—once formulated as Ukraine’s key domestic political challenge by the German political scientist Ingmar Bredies—will reassert itself.”
Maxim Edwards, Foreign Policy: “Welcome to Ukraine’s Post-Post-Maidan Era: Ukraine’s president now has an unprecedented level of parliamentary support. What will he do with it?”
Sergey Aleksashenko, Brookings Institution: “Parliamentary elections in Ukraine and 4 questions for President Zelensky”
Turkmenistan Presidential – February 12, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic (Authoritarian)
AFP: “Turkmenistan’s all-powerful leader returned to state television on Wednesday [July 24], dispelling an online rumour that he had died.”
Eurasianet: “Turkmenistan: Shortness of death: The mere speculation of the president’s death has arguably generated more attention for Turkmenistan than any sports event or international conference ever did.”
Abdujalil Abdurasulov, BBC: “Rumours about the death of presidents don’t normally live long. But in the Central Asian nation of Turkmenistan, one of the most secretive and closed states in the world, rumours are often the only source of information.”
Eurasia This Week – July 25, 2019
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Last Updated: August 6, 2019 by 21votes
July 25, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Eurasia on Thursdays. Click the map pins.
Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation
Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.
However, in last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.
Moldova Local – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.
The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.
Belarus Parliamentary – November 17, 2019 and Presidential – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)
Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.
Georgia Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Georgia holds competitive but imperfect elections. The eccentric oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili runs the show from behind the scenes, despite holding no official office. Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakasvili’s pro-European, pro-NATO United National Movement. Ivanishvili’s candidate, Salome Zurabishvili, won last year’s disputed presidential election. Georgian Dream did well in by-elections in May.
In June, a series of protests broke out over Russia, which occupies 20 percent of Georgia’s territory. The government’s brutal response could harm the coalition ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.
Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Ukraine Snap Parliamentary – July 21, 2019 (following presidential elections earlier this year)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate largely centers on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.
Zelensky’s Servant of the People party previously did not have any seats in the Rada, but swept the elections to win an unprecedented parliamentary majority. More than half of the MPs are new.
Turkmenistan Presidential - February 12, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic (Authoritarian)
Upcoming Elections
Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation
Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.
However, in last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.
Max Seddon, Financial Times: “Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny jailed over protests. Police raid homes of allies, in a sign Kremlin is worried of growing dissent ahead of local polls.”
AFP: “Navalny’s arrest came after more than 22,000 people rallied in the Russian capital on Saturday [July 20] to demand free and fair local polls, incensed by the authorities’ refusal to put popular opposition candidates on the ballot for the Moscow parliament elections in September. The opposition says it was the largest protest since 2012 when tens of thousands rallied against election fraud during parliamentary polls.”
Nataliya Vasilyeva, AP: “At least eight Russian activists who have been barred from running for seats on the Moscow City Duma were summoned for questioning Thursday, as authorities ramped up the pressure on the opposition ahead of a major rally on Saturday.”
Vladimir Kara-Murza, Washington Post: “Those disqualified from the 2019 Moscow ballot are not just opponents who could speak the inconvenient truth to voters during the campaign. Many of them are, in fact, sure winners in their districts who can reshape the face of Moscow’s legislature and, with it, of Russian politics….”
Amnesty International: “Russia: Full-scale crackdown on opposition underway ahead of September elections”
Tom Balmforth, Reuters: “Russian opposition activists said on Thursday [July 25] they planned to press ahead with an unauthorized rally in Moscow this weekend despite overnight police searches and a raft of detentions, including the jailing of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny.”
Moldova Local – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.
The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.
NOI: “Sandu: Local elections will be a test for the ruling coalition”
Radio Chisinau: “Igor Dodon: Most likely, Ion Ceban will be the PSRM candidate for mayor of Chisinau”
Radio Chisinau: “Prime Minister Maia Sandu, the president of the Party of Action and Solidarity, reiterated today that the NOW bloc, which includes the Dignity and Truth Platform headed by Interior Minister Andrei Nastase, will have a joint candidate for the local elections for Chisinau mayor’s office.”
Vladimir Socor, Jamestown Foundation: “Moldova’s Socialist President Igor Dodon seems to have cast aside his old, pet ‘federalization’ project, which would have empowered Transnistria in Chisinau and thereby empowered Russia in a federalized Moldova (see EDM, July 17).”
Madalin Necsutu, Balkan Insight: “Moscow’s Man Eyes Second Term as Moldova’s President: As he seeks re-election in 2020, Igor Dodon has made no secret of his close ties to the Kremlin – but critics cay his assiduous courtship of Russia has not brought Moldova any obvious benefits.”
RFE/RL: “Moldova’s new Prime Minister Maia Sandu visited Brussels on July 24 where she signed three financial assistance agreements worth $45 million with Johannes Hahn, the EU’s enlargement commissioner.”
Belarus Parliamentary – November 17, 2019 and Presidential – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)
Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.
Robert Coalson, RFE/RL: “Flexible Stagnation: How Lukashenka Has Held On To Power For 25 Years In Belarus”
Andrew Higgins, New York Times: “Shunned by West and Wary of Russia, Belarus Gets Help From China”
Georgia Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Georgia holds competitive but imperfect elections. The eccentric oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili runs the show from behind the scenes, despite holding no official office. Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakasvili’s pro-European, pro-NATO United National Movement. Ivanishvili’s candidate, Salome Zurabishvili, won last year’s disputed presidential election. Georgian Dream did well in by-elections in May.
In June, a series of protests broke out over Russia, which occupies 20 percent of Georgia’s territory. The government’s brutal response could harm the coalition ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.
Margarita Antidze, Reuters: “Economist’s double life on the frontline of Georgia’s street protests”
Agenda.ge: “Ex-defense Minister detained, charged with incitement to violence at Tbilisi rallies”
Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Bruce Pannier, RFE/RL’s Qishloq Ovozi: “Kyrgyzstan’s Embattled Ex-President Scores, With An Assist From Putin”
Nurjamal Djanibekova, Eurasianet: “Kyrgyzstan: Ex-president returns triumphant with Putin’s support: The government must either admit it is subordinate to Moscow or risk provoking its ire.”
Will Cathcart, The Daily Beast: “The Crazy, Deadly Horse ‘Race’ That Explains Kyrgyzstan”
Past Elections
Ukraine Snap Parliamentary – July 21, 2019 (following presidential elections earlier this year)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate largely centers on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.
Zelensky’s Servant of the People party previously did not have any seats in the Rada, but swept the elections to win an unprecedented parliamentary majority. More than half of the MPs are new.
Volodymyr Verbyany, Bloomberg: “Frustrated at a parliament stacked with millionaire businessmen, [Ukrainian voters] backed little-known candidates from all walks of life — including a wedding photographer, a fitness-club director, an anesthesiologist and more than a dozen without stable work — to unexpectedly hand an anti-establishment party the country’s first-ever ruling majority.”
Gwendolyn Sasse, Carnegie Europe: “Between 60 and 70 percent of the elected members of parliament (MPs) will be newcomers to the Rada and many to official Ukrainian politics in general. This marks an unprecedented elite turnover in Ukraine….The key question is whether such a radical turnover in one of Ukraine’s least-trusted political institutions will translate into effective legislative work to bolster the reform process and bring peace to Ukraine, as Zelenskiy has promised.”
Andreas Umland, Altantic Council’s Ukraine Alert: “Against such a backdrop, the main question for the coming years will be less whether Ukraine becomes authoritarian or Russian or both as some alarmist commentators warn. Rather, the principal question will be whether the country’s ‘habitual elite continuity’—once formulated as Ukraine’s key domestic political challenge by the German political scientist Ingmar Bredies—will reassert itself.”
Maxim Edwards, Foreign Policy: “Welcome to Ukraine’s Post-Post-Maidan Era: Ukraine’s president now has an unprecedented level of parliamentary support. What will he do with it?”
Sergey Aleksashenko, Brookings Institution: “Parliamentary elections in Ukraine and 4 questions for President Zelensky”
Turkmenistan Presidential – February 12, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic (Authoritarian)
AFP: “Turkmenistan’s all-powerful leader returned to state television on Wednesday [July 24], dispelling an online rumour that he had died.”
Eurasianet: “Turkmenistan: Shortness of death: The mere speculation of the president’s death has arguably generated more attention for Turkmenistan than any sports event or international conference ever did.”
Abdujalil Abdurasulov, BBC: “Rumours about the death of presidents don’t normally live long. But in the Central Asian nation of Turkmenistan, one of the most secretive and closed states in the world, rumours are often the only source of information.”
The Year Ahead: Eurasia
Russia local (September 8); Moldova local (October 20); Belarus parliamentary (November 17); Uzbekistan parliamentary (December 19); Azerbaijan local (December 27); Tajikistan parliamentary (March)
Photo credit: Flickr/OSCE Parliamentary Assembly (CC BY-SA 2.0)
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Category: This Week Tags: Belarus, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Turkmenistan, Ukraine