Americas This Week: June 4, 2022

June 4, 2022

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.

A market in Bogotá, Colombia. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Alvaro Santamaria R. (CC BY-SA 3.0)

Upcoming Americas Elections

Colombia Presidential Runoff: June 19, 2022

Colombia held the first round of its presidential election on May 29. Leftist former guerrilla Gustavo Petro took first place and will face populist real estate mogul Rodolfo Hernández in the runoff, who took second place in an upset as conservative Federico Gutiérrez was widely expected to advance. For a while, Petro was seen as the favorite, but more recent polls show the result is far from preordained.

No party won a majority in the legislative elections and centrists did not perform well, exacerbating the country’s polarization.

If Petro wins in May, he will be Colombia’s first leftist president. This election follows recent leftist victories in Honduras, Chile, Peru, and Bolivia and comes ahead of Brazil’s highly polarized election, which leftist former president Lula da Silva is the favorite to win. Some have warned that Russia has been sowing disinformation in support of Petro’s candidacy, hoping that he would be hostile to the United States.

Catherine Osborn, Foreign Policy (June 3, 2022): Colombia’s Fight for the Center: An anti-establishment candidate’s late surge in the country’s presidential race has transformed the election

Michael Soltys, Buenos Aires Times (June 3, 2022): Could Bogotá become Petrograd? Argentina’s past might herald Colombia’s present, which might in turn offer clues for our future

CBC News (June 3, 2022): Can Colombia’s election end the war on drugs?

New York Times (May 29, 2022): In Colombia, a Leftist and a Right-Wing Populist Move on to June Runoff

Matthew Bristow and Andrea Jaramillo, Bloomberg (May 29, 2022): Colombian Outsider Makes Runoff With Real Shot at Presidency

Chile Constitutional Referendum: September 4, 2022

Chile will hold a constitutional referendum on September 4, 2022, following over a year of meetings of the Constitutional Convention, which was elected in May 2021. The constitutional process began in response to a series of violent protests and riots in 2019.

The referendum follows last year’s presidential and legislative elections. Far-left socialist former student leader Gabriel Boric defeated Jose Antonio Kast, a far-right legislator, in the runoff. Although results of the July 18 presidential primaries seemed to indicate that voters seem to want a return to moderation, the center-right candidate from former president Sebastián Pińera’s coalition did not even make the runoff.

However, the legislative elections were a bit more complicated. Piñera’s Chile Podemos Más coalition won the most seats in the Senate, and the Chamber of Deputies is split nearly evenly between right and left-leaning members. These results will potentially constrain Boric’s ability to pursue a far-left agenda. All newly-elected officials took office in March 2022.

The 2021 elections took place in the context of a year of protests and riots, including violent looting, arson, and vandalism. Furthermore, an intense debate over the new constitution continues. The Constitutional Convention consists overwhelmingly of left-wing members and could potentially be out of step with the broader Chilean electorate. Because voting in the referendum is mandatory, the new constitution may not be approved.

Ryan Dube, Wall Street Journal (May 30, 2022): Chile’s Proposed Constitution Could Upend Its Free-Market Model

Brazil General Elections (Presidential, Legislative, State, and Local): October 2, 2022

Brazil holds general elections in October 2022. Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing populist firebrand president, is up for re-election. Former president Lula da Silva, himself a populist firebrand of the left-wing variety, will run against him. The country remains deeply polarized between right and left, although some third-way candidates plan to challenge both Bolsonaro and Lula. 

As Latin America’s biggest economy, Brazil’s politics have an impact on the entire region and – increasingly – on the world stage. More

Scott Hamilton, Global Americans (June 1, 2022): Dropping the Ball on Brazil

The Conversation (May 30, 2022): Elections in Brazil: Lula faces many challenges running against Jair Bolsonaro

Argentina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October or November 2023 (due)

Argentina is due to hold presidential and legislative elections in October or November 2023.

Argentina held midterm legislative elections in November 2021, along with a few sets of provincial elections on various dates. The ruling Peronists took a major hit, losing control of the legislature for the first time in decades.

Argentina’s 2021 elections – both provincial and legislative – happened in the context of an economic crisis, which the leftist government and COVID-19 have exacerbated. In the 2019 presidential election, Peronist Alberto Fernández defeated center-right incumbent Mauricio Macri (the first defeat for an Argentine incumbent president), running on a ticket with populist firebrand Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who served as president from 2007 to 2015. Kirchner herself did not run for president because she was facing criminal charges related to misconduct during her time in office. Frente de Todos, the party formed by Kirchner and Fernández, currently holds a majority in the Senate and is the biggest party in the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house.

Agustino Fontevecchia, Forbes (June 3, 2022): The Political Sunset Of Argentina’s Cristina Kirchner

Haiti Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: Delayed

Haiti had planned to hold presidential and parliamentary elections this year in the midst of political and humanitarian crises, but the elections have now been delayed.

Haiti’s political crisis went into overdrive on July 7 with the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse. Moïse had been governing by decree for over a year and stood accused by many of attempting to consolidate power through a controversial constitutional change (Moïse ultimately postponed the referendum). Prime Minister Ariel Henry is now leading the country, and has said he will hold elections, but has not specified a date.

Tanvi Nagpal, Devex (June 2, 2022): Opinion: Why localization is the only way forward in Haiti

Past Americas Elections

Canada, Ontario Provincial Elections: June 2, 2022, followed by other provincial and local elections this year

Canada holds several sets of provincial and local elections this year.

Most recently: Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, held provincial elections on June 2, 2022. The Progressive Conservatives, under populist leader Doug Ford, won a second term in a landslide. Ford made an appeal to union workers and other blue-collar voters and managed to flip seats previously held by the leftist New Democratic Party (NDP).

These follow the September 2021 snap federal elections, which took place two years early. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau hoped to win a majority for his Liberals. His gamble did not pay off. He ended up remaining in power, but once again helming a minority government, this time with a confidence-and-supply deal with the NDP. The arrangement could bring stability until 2025, when the next elections are due.

Anna Mehler Paperny and Ismail Shakil, Reuters (June 2, 2022): Ontario premier Ford returns with bigger majority as conservatives win second term

El Salvador Legislative and Local Elections: February 28, 2021

El Salvador held legislative and local elections on February 28, 2021. Allies of populist president Nayib Bukele won in a landslide, allowing him to consolidate his hold on the country with a legislative majority. Critics note growing authoritarianism. More

Kate Linthicum, Los Angeles Times (June 9, 2022): As El Salvador’s president tries to silence free press, journalist brothers expose his ties to street gangs

Chase Harrison, Americas Quarterly (May 31, 2022): In El Salvador, a Chastened Opposition Looks to Find Its Way: Traditional and new parties alike are dogged by a charismatic president and weak organizational structures

Global Geopolitics in the Americas

DW (June 9, 2022): Biden seeks to counter China at Americas summit

Hari Seshasayee, Observer Research Foundation (June 6, 2022): Latin America: The last frontier for India’s foreign policy

Americas Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023

Colombia Presidential Runoff: May 29, 2022

Grenada General Elections: June 23, 2022

Canada, Resort Village Elections in Manitoba: July 22, 2022

Saint Kitts and Nevis Snap Elections: By August 2022

Chile Constitutional Referendum: September 4, 2022

Brazil General Elections (Presidential, Legislative, State, and Local): October 2, 2022

Peru Local and Regional Elections: October 2, 2022

Canada: Local Elections in Ontario: October 24, 2022

Canada: Local Elections in Manitoba: October 26, 2022

Canada: Local Elections in Prince Edward Island: November 7, 2022

Canada: Local Elections in Saskatchewan: November 9, 2022 (Rural Municipalities – even number divisions)

Canada: Local Elections in Northwest Territories: December 12, 2022

Guyana Local Elections: Overdue (date not set yet – preparations being made)

Ecuador Regional Elections: February 5, 2023

Jamaica Local Elections: By February 2023

Grenada General Elections: By March 2023 (due)

Paraguay Presidential and Legislative Elections: April 2023

Guatemala General Elections: June 2023 (expected)

Guatemala General Election Runoffs: August 2023 (expected)

Argentina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October or November 2023 (due)

Antigua and Barbuda General Elections: By 2023

Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections: Delayed from November 7, 2021, no new date set

21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.

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