Americas This Week – October 19, 2019

October 19, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore the Americas on Saturdays. Click the map pins.

Bolivia General – October 20, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.3 million

Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates. A court banned the publication of polls showing Morales may face a runoff.

Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS) currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.

Canada General – October 21, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
Population: 35.9 million

The election will be a competitive contest between the center-right Conservatives and incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s center-left Liberals. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Most recently, photos emerged of Trudeau in brownface, which hurt the Liberals’ polling numbers.

Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.

Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 – Throughout the year

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 44.7 million

On the presidential front: Incumbent Mauricio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.

In the primaries on August 11, 2019, in which voters must select both a preferred party and a preferred candidate, Fernández and Kirchner won an unexpectedly high 47 percent of the vote, compared with Macri’s 33 percent. Inflation spiked following the primaries.

Colombia Local – October 27, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.2 million

Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections, with at least seven mayoral candidates murdered.

Uruguay General – October 27, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free 
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 3.4 million

Nicknamed the “Switzerland of South America,” Uruguay is wealthier than the its neighbors and politically neutral. The three major parties are the center-left and social democratic Frente Amplio (Broad Front) coalition, the center-right National Party (PN), and the liberal Colorado Party (PC). FA holds a razor-thin majority in the General Assembly, with 16 out of 31 Senate seats and 50 out of 99 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. It has had a majority in the General Assembly and held the presidency since 2005. President Tabaré Vázquez, who was elected in 2014 and had also been president from 2005 to 2010, is not able to run this year because the constitution does not allow consecutive terms.

Haiti Local and Partial Parliamentary (one third of the Senate and the entire lower house) – Due October 27, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 10.8 million

Haiti is in a political crisis. Political chaos related to allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. A commission found that the election had indeed been fraudulent, and ordered a re-reun, which had only 18 percent turnout. President Moïse Jovenel was elected with 56 percent of ballots cast. The opposition alleged fraud once again, but an election tribunal conducted an investigation and certified the results. Violent protesters have demanded the president’s ouster. The 2015-2016 parliamentary elections were also marred by significant fraud. Opposition lawmakers blocked multiple attempts to ratify a new prime minister and have demanded Jovenel’s resignation.

Dominica Legislative – December 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic 
Population: 74,027

Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit’s center-left Dominica Labour Party (DLP) has been in government since 2000. DLP lost seats following the 2014 parliamentary elections, but with 15 out of 21 seats still has a substantial majority. The main opposition United Workers’ Party (UWP) led by Lennox Linton has six seats. Home of the famous Boiling Lake, the world’s second-largest hot spring, rare birds, and natural beauty, the country has the potential to develop its tourism industry, but the lack of a major international airport has impeded growth. The debate over whether to build one has been going on for decades, and is a major issue in the upcoming elections. Skerrit has been slow-rolling a decision on whether and how to build one, and some oppose the idea entirely.

Peru Snap Congressional – January 26, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 31.3 million

On September 30, President Martín Vizcarra dissolved Congress, calling for snap elections. The last time this happened was in 1992, under President Alberto Fujimori, who then instituted almost a decade of authoritarian rule. Fujimori is now in jail for human rights abuses. However, many Peruvians credit him with laying the groundwork for economic growth and marginalizing terrorist groups such as the communist Shining Path, which was itself responsible for widespread atrocities (such as routinely hacking people to death with machetes).

Vizcarra took office in March 2018 following the resignation of Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, widely called PPK, who faced impeachment. Kuczynski, a well-respected economist, had defeated Fujimori’s daughter, Keiko Fujimori, in the 2016 presidential election. His party, Peruvians for Change (Peruanos Por el Kambio, or PPK – the party deliberately misspelled “Cambio” so that its acronym would be the same as its leader’s initials), won 18 out of 130 seats, but Fujimori’s right-wing populist Popular Force (Fuerza Popular) won the most seats with 71. The remaining seats were won by various smaller parties across the ideological spectrum. Peruvian politics are fractious and corruption has been an ongoing problem. The Economist notes: “Most Peruvians share Mr Vizcarra’s view that the legislature is corrupt, obstructive and overdue for dissolution. Nearly 90% disapprove of it.”

Guyana Provincial and Snap Parliamentary – March 2, 2020

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 741,000

Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil.

In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation delayed the process. After months of back-and-forth, Granger announced that the election would take place on March 2, 2020.

Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese. 

Brazil General – October 7, 2018

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: 208.8 million

Last year’s elections in Brazil swept controversial right-wing populist firebrand Jair Bolsonaro into the presidency, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country. Brazil holds local elections next year.

Ecuador General – February 19, 2017

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 16.5 million

Upcoming Americas Elections
Bolivia General – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.3 million

Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates. A court banned the publication of polls showing Morales may face a runoff.

Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS) currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.

Andres Oppenheimer, Miami Herald: “Bolivia’s election could lead to a ruthless ‘elected dictatorship.’ But no one’s paying attention.”

The Economist: “Bolivia’s Evo Morales faces his toughest re-election battle yet: After 13 years of his rule, voters are getting restless.”

David Gormezano, France24: “Bolivia goes to polls as left-wing icon Evo Morales seeks unprecedented fourth term”

Updated October 21, 2019

The Guardian: “Bolivia: confusion over election results sparks fear and protests – Top electoral authority stopped announcing new results without explanation, leading to fears of manipulation of votes.”

Paola Flores and Carlos Valdez, AP: “Rioting erupts as Bolivia says Morales near outright win….The president’s opponents suggested that officials were trying to help Morales avoid a runoff fight in which he could lose to a unified opposition, while an observer mission from the Organization of American States expressed concerns about the development.

Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
Population: 35.9 million

The election will be a competitive contest between the center-right Conservatives and incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s center-left Liberals. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Most recently, photos emerged of Trudeau in brownface, which hurt the Liberals’ polling numbers.

Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.

Shannon Busta, New York Times: “‘We Will Be Stuck With One of Them’: Canadians on Their Upcoming Election After a contentious, scandal-filled campaign for prime minister, many voters say they feel disillusioned.”

Updated October 21, 2019

Jonathon Gatehouse, CBC News (Canada): “What lies beneath: 3 things to watch for in the election results: Finding meaning in a mixed-bag federal election”

Benjamin Shingler, CBC News (Canada): “Liberals projected to form minority government, holding strong in Quebec despite Bloc surge”

Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 – Throughout the year
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 44.7 million

On the presidential front: Incumbent Mauricio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.

In the primaries on August 11, 2019, in which voters must select both a preferred party and a preferred candidate, Fernández and Kirchner won an unexpectedly high 47 percent of the vote, compared with Macri’s 33 percent. Inflation spiked following the primaries.

AP: “In Argentina, farmers worry about presidential race, possible return to interventionist policies: Many farmers are counting on the re-election of the business-friendly, conservative president Mauricio Macri, worrying about a return to export restrictions under the rival ticket.”

Eliana Raszewski, Reuters: “Argentine President Mauricio Macri called on ‘angry’ voters to get behind him ahead of presidential elections next week, as he looks to defy the odds and rein in Peronist challenger Alberto Fernandez, who beat him heavily in a primary vote in August.”

Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.2 million

Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections, with at least seven mayoral candidates murdered.

Adriaan Alsema, Colombia Report: “A week before Colombia takes to the polls, elections in the capital Bogota are expected to end in a photo finish while Medellin’s local elite may as well be preparing celebrations. In Cali, which has suffered one of the dirtiest campaigns of the country, the race is still undecided.”

Richard Emblin, City Paper Bogota: “Bogotá elections 2019: Candidates outline security agendas: The Bogotá Mayoral race is entering a critical phase during the last month of a campaign that has narrowed margins among the four main candidates.”

Megan Janetsky, Al Jazeera: “Violence sows fear among women ahead of Colombia local elections: Observers say female candidates systematically threatened with physical, sexual violence to deter them from running.”

Maria Alejandra Navarrete and Chris Dalby, Insight Crime: “Why Are Social Leaders Dying in Colombia’s Cauca?”

Uruguay General – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free 
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 3.4 million

Nicknamed the “Switzerland of South America,” Uruguay is wealthier than the its neighbors and politically neutral. The three major parties are the center-left and social democratic Frente Amplio (Broad Front) coalition, the center-right National Party (PN), and the liberal Colorado Party (PC). FA holds a razor-thin majority in the General Assembly, with 16 out of 31 Senate seats and 50 out of 99 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. It has had a majority in the General Assembly and held the presidency since 2005. President Tabaré Vázquez, who was elected in 2014 and had also been president from 2005 to 2010, is not able to run this year because the constitution does not allow consecutive terms.

Corruption allegations and slow economic growth could hurt FA’s chances in these elections. During the June 30, 2019 primaries – in which voters also express a preferred party – FA received only 23.6 percent of the vote, with PN winning 41.6 and PC picking up 16.8.

Luisa Leme, AS/COA: “LatAm in Focus: Behind Uruguay’s Presidential Vote”

Haiti Local and Partial Parliamentary (one third of the Senate and the entire lower house) – Due October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 10.8 million

Haiti is in a political crisis. Political chaos related to allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. A commission found that the election had indeed been fraudulent, and ordered a re-reun, which had only 18 percent turnout. President Moïse Jovenel was elected with 56 percent of ballots cast. The opposition alleged fraud once again, but an election tribunal conducted an investigation and certified the results. Violent protesters have demanded the president’s ouster. The 2015-2016 parliamentary elections were also marred by significant fraud. Opposition lawmakers blocked multiple attempts to ratify a new prime minister and have demanded Jovenel’s resignation.

Amelia Cheatham, Council on Foreign Relations: “What’s Driving the Protests in Haiti?”

Evens Sanon, AP: “Protesters bar Haiti’s president from visiting historic site”

Dominica Legislative – December 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic 
Population: 74,027

Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit’s center-left Dominica Labour Party (DLP) has been in government since 2000. DLP lost seats following the 2014 parliamentary elections, but with 15 out of 21 seats still has a substantial majority. The main opposition United Workers’ Party (UWP) led by Lennox Linton has six seats. Home of the famous Boiling Lake, the world’s second-largest hot spring, rare birds, and natural beauty, the country has the potential to develop its tourism industry, but the lack of a major international airport has impeded growth. The debate over whether to build one has been going on for decades, and is a major issue in the upcoming elections. Skerrit has been slow-rolling a decision on whether and how to build one, and some oppose the idea entirely.

Dominica News Online: “The Leader of the United Workers Party, Lennox Linton, is accusing Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit of playing games with the people of Dominica by withholding the date for the general election. Prime Minister Skerrit announced during the official launch of Dominica Labour Party (DLP) candidate Kent Edwards in La Plaine over the weekend, that elections will be held in Dominica within the next 100 days.”

Peru Snap Congressional – January 26, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 31.3 million

On September 30, President Martín Vizcarra dissolved Congress, calling for snap elections. The last time this happened was in 1992, under President Alberto Fujimori, who then instituted almost a decade of authoritarian rule. Fujimori is now in jail for human rights abuses. However, many Peruvians credit him with laying the groundwork for economic growth and marginalizing terrorist groups such as the communist Shining Path, which was itself responsible for widespread atrocities (such as routinely hacking people to death with machetes).

Vizcarra took office in March 2018 following the resignation of Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, widely called PPK, who faced impeachment. Kuczynski, a well-respected economist, had defeated Fujimori’s daughter, Keiko Fujimori, in the 2016 presidential election. His party, Peruvians for Change (Peruanos Por el Kambio, or PPK – the party deliberately misspelled “Cambio” so that its acronym would be the same as its leader’s initials), won 18 out of 130 seats, but Fujimori’s right-wing populist Popular Force (Fuerza Popular) won the most seats with 71. The remaining seats were won by various smaller parties across the ideological spectrum. Peruvian politics are fractious and corruption has been an ongoing problem. The Economist notes: “Most Peruvians share Mr Vizcarra’s view that the legislature is corrupt, obstructive and overdue for dissolution. Nearly 90% disapprove of it.”

Juan Montes, Wall Street Journal: “A Peruvian Political Dynasty Reels as President Dissolves Congress: Right-wing populist movement known as Fujimorismo faces uncertain future, nearly three decades after its strongman founder assumed full powers in a similar move.”

Mariana Sanchez, Al Jazeera: “Peru voters demand corruption-free gov’t: Peru tries to move on from a series of corruption scandals, but will an election end the political crisis?”

Guyana Provincial and Snap Parliamentary – March 2, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 741,000

Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil.

In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation delayed the process. After months of back-and-forth, Granger announced that the election would take place on March 2, 2020.

Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese. 

CMC: “A new political party, promising campaign financing legislation, was launched in Guyana as the country prepares to hold fresh regional and general election on March 2 next year. The Citizenship Initiative (CI), which has also indicated that it has no intention of joining with either the People’s National Congress (PNC), which is part of the ruling coalition administration and the main opposition People’s Progressive Party Civic (PPP/C), said it intends to change the way issues related to politics are addressed in Guyana.”

Past Americas Elections
Brazil General – October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: 208.8 million

Last year’s elections in Brazil swept controversial right-wing populist firebrand Jair Bolsonaro into the presidency, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country. Brazil holds local elections next year.

Anthony Boadle, Reuters: “Rift between Brazil’s president and his party deepens in Congress: A push by Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro to make his son the leader of his party in the lower house of Congress was rejected on Thursday, deepening a rift with party leaders that could further fragment the far-right firebrand’s legislative base.”

Simone Preissler Iglesias and Flavia Said, Bloomberg: “President Jair Bolsonaro is losing allies in Congress as he fights over control of his own political party and tries to distance himself from allegations of campaign financing irregularities at last year’s elections.”

Ecuador General – February 19, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 16.5 million

Ian Bremmer, Time: “The protestors won this week! No, not those protestors. Or those. Or those. But demonstrators in Ecuador did force president Lenin Moreno to climbdown from his proposed cuts to fuel subsidies, a policy that kicked off protests so violent and wide-ranging that Moreno was forced to relocate his government to the port city of Guayaquil for a few days while the capital burned. But ending the protests was the easy part; the real question for Moreno is what comes next.”

Laura Weiss, World Politics Review: “After nearly two weeks of paralyzing and deadly protests in Ecuador, the streets of Quito rang out in celebration Sunday night. The demonstrations, led by indigenous groups, had succeeded in pressuring President Lenin Moreno to reinstate a popular fuel subsidy he had removed on Oct. 2 as part of an austerity package backed by the International Monetary Fund. “Victory for the popular struggle!” wrote Jaime Vargas, the head of the country’s largest indigenous coalition, the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador, or CONAIE, on Twitter.”

Alexandra Valencia and Gabriel Stargardter, Reuters: “Ecuador’s indigenous leaders, emboldened by their success in derailing IMF-backed fuel-subsidy cuts, have set their sights on high office, but experts say they face formidable obstacles – a small population, infighting and struggles with campaign finance.”

The Year Ahead: Americas Elections
Canada provincial and territorial (throughout the year);  Haiti parliamentary (due October – delays likely – ongoing crisis); Bolivia presidential and legislative (October 20); Canada general (October 21); Argentina presidential and legislative (October 27); Uruguay presidential and legislative (October 27); Colombia local (October 27); Trinidad and Tobago local (November); Dominica legislative (December); Peru snap legislative (January 26); St. Kitts and Nevis legislative (February); Costa Rica local (February 2); Guyana snap parliamentary (overdue – possibly November but likely in 2020); Dominican Republican presidential and parliamentary (May 17); Suriname presidential and parliamentary (May 25); Trinidad and Tobago presidential and parliamentary (September)

 Bolivia President Evo Morales seeks a controversial fourth term amid fears that he may go full dictator. Photo credit: Flickr/Sebastian Baryli (CC-BY 2.0)

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