Upcoming Asia Elections
India, Haryana State and Maharashtra State Assemblies – October 21, 2019 Jharkhand State Assembly – November 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: India – 1.3 billion; Maharashtra -112 million; Haryana – 25 million; Jharkhand – 32 million
India has 29 states and seven union territories. Indian states are big – Maharashtra, whose capital is Mumbai, has 112 million people, Haryana 25 million, and Jharkhand 32 million. Coalitions headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently control all three state legislatures. The BJP won a massive victory in elections to the Lok Sabha, India’s national parliament, earlier this year, giving it a second term in power as the majority party able to govern without coalition partners, in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – did well in a series of state elections late last year but is reeling from the whiplash of defeat in the Lok Sabha polls.
The state elections are happening in the context of a renewed push from Modi to institute “one nation, one election” – a proposal to hold state elections at the same time as elections to the Lok Sabha. Critics say the plan is a ploy to centralize power, part of a pattern that includes Modi’s surprise decision to strip the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir of its autonomy. Critics accuse Modi and the BJP of increasing authoritarianism.
Priyanjana Bengani, Columbia Journalism Review: “India had its first ‘WhatsApp election.’ We have a million messages from it”
Updated October 21, 2019
Business Standard (India): “Elections LIVE: Exit polls give BJP, allies victory in Maharashtra, Haryana: Low to average voter turnout was reported in assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana, where the BJP is seeking a second term in power and has predicted an easy victory.”
Prabhash K Dutta, India Today: “Why Maharashtra, Haryana assembly elections matter | 5 points: There are many firsts associated with Maharashtra, Haryana assembly elections which may be sample survey or referendum on issues that dominated national politics since May 2019 Lok Sabha poll results.”
Thailand Parliamentary By-Election in Nakhon Pathom – October 23, 2019 and Local – March 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 68.6 million
The March 24, 2019 parliamentary election nominally returned Thailand to civilian rule following a military coup in 2014.
The main political fault line during the elections was between pro- and anti-junta political parties. Pheu Thai, a populist party founded by controversial former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra – who was ousted from office and convicted of corruption and is now living in exile – won the most seats (136 out of 500). However, Pheu Thai’s negotiations with the newly-formed progressive Future Forward Party (FFP) and several others fell through. For two decades, the (sometimes violent) fight between Thaksin and the military dominated Thai politics, and FFP originally been formed to give voters an alternative.
Former junta chief Prayuth Chan-ocha’s new pro-junta Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) then formed a government in coalition with several other parties, including former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s Democrats. Prayuth became prime minister. The military still wields considerable power behind the scenes.
Hathai Techakitteranun, Straits Times: “Thailand to hold by-election next week with race almost a rerun of March vote: Thailand is heading for a by-election next Wednesday (Oct 23) with three others in the pipeline, and their outcomes will be crucial for a governing coalition with a razor-thin majority in the Lower House of Parliament.”
Joshua Kurlantzick, World Politics Review: “Why the Thai King’s Power Grab Could Backfire….Although lese majeste laws outlaw public criticism, Thais are generally well aware of Vajiralongkorn’s past and present conduct. There is little evidence he has boosted his popularity as king. His maneuvering is making enemies among business, military and political elites, in addition to quiet republicans who already distrusted the monarchy.”
James Massola, Sydney Morning Herald: “Thailand’s king has stripped his royal consort of her titles and military ranks for disloyalty, accusing her of seeking to undermine the country’s queen, in the latest move from the recently-crowned King.”
The Economist: “Thailand’s army chief sees a commie conspiracy to topple the king. He is helping to set the country on a course for further division and rancour.”
Sheith Khidhir, ASEAN Post: “Is Thailand risking another massacre?”
Updated October 21, 2019
Bangkok Post: “Seven parties contesting Wednesday’s by-election in Nakhon Pathom: The political focus will be on Nakhon Pathom on Wednesday when voters return to the ballot box after the Forward Future MP for constituency 5 stepped down following an accident.”
Malaysia Parliamentary By-Election in Tanjong Piai – November 16, 2019 and Local Elections – TBD
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 31.8 million
In last year’s parliamentary elections, Mahathir Mohamed led his Pakatan Haratan (Alliance of Hope) party to a surprise victory over the Barisan Nasional coalition and its primary member, United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which had been in power since Malaysia’s 1957 independence. In 1976, the government abolished local elections and instituted the practice of appointing the members of the country’s 146 local councils. Malaysia is currently debating whether to hold local elections.
Tanjong Piai is home to mainland Eurasia’s southernmost point. The parliamentary seat became open when incumbent Md Farid Md Rafik died of a heart attack on September 21 at age 42. Md Farid was a member of the PH, and he narrowly defeated incumbent Wee Jeck Seng from the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA), a member of the BN coalition, and the PAS candidate in a three-way contest.
Prashanth Parameswaran, The Diplomat: “Meredith Weiss on Politics in a New Malaysia: A conversation on the state of Malaysia’s politics under the Pakatan Harapan government.”
Free Malaysia Today: “Former DAP member Hew Kuan Yau says that his comic book titled ‘Belt & Road Initiative for Win and Winism’ has caused controversy because the Tanjung Piai by-election is near. He said in view of the by-election, the comic book had become an issue as the government wanted to win the support of the Malay voters.”
Updated October 21, 2019
Justin Ong, Malay Mail: “DAP Youth insists ‘Superman’s’ pro-China comic not linked to party: DAP and its Youth wing were completely uninvolved in a propaganda comic book that promoted China’s Belt-Road Initiative and was produced by ex-member Hew Kuan Yew, said Howard Lee.”
Brian Braun, Council on Foreign Relations’ Asia Unbound: “Malaysia’s Voting Age Amendment: A Double-Edged Sword for Political Leaders.”
Sri Lanka Presidential – November 16, 2019 (confirmed) and Parliamentary – February 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 22.6 million
Sri Lanka is still feeling the aftershocks of a series of terrorist attacks over Easter 2019 and a 2018 political crisis in which President Maithripala Sirisena tried to dissolve parliament and remove Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe from office and replace him with former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was president from 2005 to 2015. Ultimately, Wickremesinghe was reinstated, but the crisis has deep roots and tensions remain high in Sri Lankan politics.
The two major parties are Sirisena’s center-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Wickremesinghe’s center-right United National Party. Rajapaksa left the SLPF in 2018 and now leads the populist Sri Lanka People’s Front/Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). In the last presidential elections, Rajapaksa surprisingly lost to Sirisena, who embarked on a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Rajapaksa had built up. SLPP did well in local elections last year.
Out of a record 35 presidential candidates, the two frontrunners former defense chief Gotabaya Rajapaksa (Mahinda’s brother), who has been accused of war crimes (Mahinda is not eligible to run for president again due to term limits adopted during Sirisena’s presidency), as well as Sajith Premadasa from UNP, who bested Wickremesinghe in the party’s bitterly-fought nomination contest. Premadasa is the son of former president Ranasinghe Premadasa, and has sought to bolster his campaign’s national security credentials by promising to appoint a former wartime army chief as head of national security if elected. Rajapaksa is presenting himself as a strongman, promising to eliminate Islamist terrorists.
Sirisena has announced that he will not seek re-election, and for the first time ever, the SLFP will not be fielding a presidential candidate. Thus Sri Lanka’s party system is in the midst of a realignment. International observers have noted that the fluid party situation could make the election more competitive, but also note concerns about media bias, transparency in campaign finance, voter education, and party conduct. Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice, and the upcoming elections could well determine whether it strengthens or deteriorates.
Brahma Chellaney, Project Syndicate: “The End of Sri Lankan Democracy? At a time of growing international skepticism toward China’s Belt and Road Initiative, the Rajapaksa family’s potential return to power is welcome news for Chinese President Xi Jinping. But it is bad news for practically everyone else.”
Marshall Islands Legislative – November 18, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic (in free association with the US)
Population: 75,684
At stake: All 33 seats in the Nitijeļā, unicameral Legislature of the Marshall Islands
Giff Johnson, Radio New Zealand: “In the wake of last week’s Marshall Islands Supreme Court ruling declaring a Nitijela (Parliament) law banning postal ballots unconstitutional, a battle is brewing among elected leaders and lawsuit plaintiffs over what should happen for next month’s national election, scheduled for 18 November.”
Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
Population: 7.2 million
A series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets on at least one occasion – has been taking place in Hong Kong since the beginning of the summer. The proximate cause was a controversial extradition bill, but even though the bill has been put on hold, protesters persist, calling for more democracy and free elections. The police have responded violently and pro-Beijing forces have sought to smear and demoralize the protesters. There are fears that Beijing could send troops, but Hong Kong’s activists vow to continue until they succeed in their goals.
Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. The protest movement could boost the pro-democracy camp.
Kris Cheng, Hong Kong Free Press: “Chief Exec. Carrie Lam urges peaceful District Council election as US senator labels Hong Kong a ‘police state’”
Felix Tam, Reuters: “Protests turn Hong Kong’s council elections into referendum on Lam’s government: Pro-democracy candidates will stand in almost all 452 seats in Hong Kong’s upcoming local elections, encouraged by four months of anti-government protests, with the outcome of the November poll a barometer of support for the city’s embattled government.”
Kimmy Chung and Jeffie Lam, South China Morning Post: “As Hong Kong heads towards District Elections, calls for ‘revolution’ raise chances of more candidate disqualifications: At least four candidates have been asked to explain their use of a popular slogan among the city’s protesters – ‘Liberate Hong Kong; revolution of our times’ – which has touched a nerve with the authorities.”
Keith Bradsher, New York Times: “Why the Protests in Hong Kong May Have No End in Sight”
Taiwan Presidential and Legislative – January 11, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 23.5 million
Taiwan has a robust democracy. The two main parties are President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT, founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate. Tsai won the DPP presidential primary. Beijing’s choice, Han Kuo-yu, the populist firebrand mayor of Kaohsiung, a major port city in the south, won the KMT primary. His opponent, Foxconn founder Terry Guo, Taiwan’s richest man, is mulling an independent bid in the general election.
The DPP currently controls the Legislative Yuan. Last year’s local elections swept the KMT back into many local offices that they had lost during the 2014 local elections – with some interference from China. China is expected to attempt to influence the upcoming elections as well.
Kent Wang, Asia Times: “Five key points on Taiwan presidential election: It is far too early to know how the next Taiwan presidential election will play out, but the elections in January are slated to be the most important in nearly a quarter of a century. What makes this election different?”
Philippines Village Elections – May 11, 2020 (delay to 2023 possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 105.9 million
Political parties in the Philippines are weak, and politics tends to be based not on ideology but rather personality and dynasty (for instance, a survey in 2014 found that 70 percent of elected representatives were members of political dynasties). In 2016, Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider (although his daughter, Sara, now holds the mayorship of Davao, her father’s former job). Duterte has governed with an iron fist, waging a drug war that has resulted in thousands of extrajudicial killings, sparking an investigation by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity. The government has cracked down on critics, including elected officials and journalists. Duterte allies swept the 2019 midterm legislative and local elections.
There is currently talk of postponing the village and youth council elections to 2023 and extending the mandates of the current office-holders. The last village and youth council elections were also postponed, so this would be the second time for an election to be postponed under Duterte.
Clarissa Batino, Bloomberg: “The lead of Philippines’ Vice President Leni Robredo over Ferdinand Marcos Jr. widened in the results of the protest recount in three provinces chosen by the late dictator’s son, according to the electoral tribunal.”
Joshua Hammer, New York Times: “The Journalist vs. the President, With Life on the Line Maria Ressa, editor of a popular news site in the Philippines, has incurred President Duterte and his supporters’ wrath by investigating his extrajudicial killing campaign.”
Burma Parliamentary – Expected late 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 55.6 million
Burma, also called Myanmar, seemed to be moving toward democracy following the country’s first credible, relatively free elections in 2015, which swept Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) to power following decades of military dictatorship. Once held up by the global community as a paragon of moral authority for giving up her own freedom in the fight for democracy, Suu Kyi’s tenure as the country’s de facto leader has disappointed many. Burma still has hundreds of political prisoners, including many who were arrested after the NLD came to power.
Ethnic conflicts continue between the dominant Burmans, who comprise roughly 60 percent of the population, and different minority groups. The crisis in Rakhine or Arakan State with the Muslim Rohingya, which some have called a genocide, has created 700,000 refugees in neighboring Bangladesh and 128,000 internally displaced people. During by-elections in 2018, the NLD won seven out of 13 seats, but lost five out of six in non-Burman areas.
Htet Naing Zaw, The Irrawaddy: “NLD: Myanmar Military MPs’ Meetings With Public an ‘Unethical’ Poll Tactic”
Past Asia Elections
New Zealand Local – October 12, 2019 and Parliamentary – by November 21, 2020 (likely to be earlier)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Population: 4.5 million
New Zealand’s two main parties are the center-left Labour Party and center-right National Party. National won the most votes and seats in the 2017 elections, but not enough to form a government. Labour formed a coalition with New Zealand First, a populist party that has worked with both Labour and National in the past, backed by a confidence and supply agreement with the Green Party (Labour and New Zealand First combined have the same number of seats as National – 55). Labour leader Jacinda Ardern – a former DJ who is on the left wing of the party – became Prime Minister and is currently the world’s youngest female government.
Local elections in New Zealand have had low turnout for decades, but the local polls could serve as an interesting barometer ahead of next year’s parliamentary polls – which are due by November 2020 but could be called earlier – for which parties have already started campaigning.
Charlotte Graham-McLay, The Guardian: “’Youthquake’: The young New Zealanders voted into office – in between McDonald’s shifts – The number of elected officials under 30 doubled in city and district elections. Here a selection of them speak about their priorities.”
Charlotte Graham-McLay, New York Times: “Peter Jackson Has a Lot of Power in New Zealand. Some Say Too Much. The filmmaker’s intervention in a mayoral race, part of an effort to block a housing plan, was unheard-of in a country where money and fame are usually wielded lightly.”
Eleanor Ainge Roy, The Guardian: “’Profoundly wrong’: Wellington’s new mayor denies being Peter Jackson ‘puppet’: Andy Foster says financial backing from Lord of the Rings director was not reason for his victory in New Zealand capital.”
Reuters: “New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is pleased with her government’s progress, she said on Tuesday, after two closely watched opinion polls showed support for her ruling coalition at its lowest since 2017, and her own popularity waning.”
Updated October 21, 2019
Jason Walls, New Zealand Herald: “PM Jacinda Ardern won’t say if she would prefer NZ First or Greens as a potential sole coalition partner”
Indonesia General – April 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 262.8 million
In Indonesia’s April 2019 election – the biggest single day of voting in the history of the world – incumbent Joko Widodo (Jokowi), widely seen as a reformer, defeated challenged Prabowo Subianto for the presidency in an election deemed free and fair by the international community. However, Prabowo didn’t accept the results, and in addition to challenging them in court, he urged his supporters to take to the streets. Rioting ensued. Prabowo ultimately accepted the results, but tensions remain, particularly regarding the role of religion in politics.
Indonesia will hold regional elections in September 2020, and the next presidential election is due in 2024.
Max Walden and Erwin Renaldi, ABC News (Australia): “How did Indonesia’s Jokowi and Prabowo go from enemies to best mates?”
Arys Aditya and Karlis Salna, Bloomberg: “Indonesia Oligarchs Are Trying to Yank Power From the President: Indonesia’s elites are edging closer to securing constitutional changes to strip President Joko Widodo of key powers in a move that could eventually end direct elections, presenting the most crucial test for democracy in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy since the downfall of the dictator Suharto in 1998.”
Updated October 20, 2019
Richard C. Paddock and Muktita Suhartono, New York Times: “Indonesian President Is Sworn In Amid High Security and Protest Ban Joko Widodo took the oath of office for a second term as he faces public opposition over his willingness to limit personal freedoms and weaken the corruption fight.”
Updated October 21, 2019
Niniek Karmini, AP: “Indonesia’s opposition leader and losing presidential candidate said Monday that he will join his election rival’s Cabinet to help strengthen the country’s defense, signaling a calming of political tensions in the world’s third-largest democracy.”
Cambodia General – July 29, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 16.4 million
Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that had some element of competition, the 2018 election – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.
The 2018 election has been described as the “death of democracy” in Cambodia. Since then, Cambodia has worked to suppress all critical voices, including journalists, civil society, and the opposition. The United States sanctioned Cambodia’s top officials in response.
Andrew Nachemson and Yon Sineat, Al Jazeera: “Authorities in Cambodia have labelled opposition leader Sam Rainsy’s plan to return next month from exile a “coup”, and stepped up a crackdown on his supporters. At least 27 members of the banned Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) have been arrested since the start of the year accused of plotting a coup and many more have faced various other political charges, the party said.”
Radio Free Asia: “Cambodian Opposition Leader Sam Rainsy Vows to Lead ‘Tsunami’ of Supporters to Arrest PM Hun Sen”
Clare Baldwin and Andrew RC Marshall, Reuters Investigates: “Cambodia’s ruling elite are patriots who would never hide money abroad, says the country’s leader, Hun Sen. But a Reuters investigation shows that Hun Sen’s family and officials have overseas assets worth tens of millions of dollars, and some have bought themselves European citizenship.”
Asia This Week – October 18, 2019
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Last Updated: October 30, 2019 by 21votes
October 18, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Asia and the Pacific on Fridays. Click the map pins.
India, Haryana State and Maharashtra State Assemblies – October 21, 2019 Jharkhand State Assembly – November 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: India – 1.3 billion; Maharashtra -112 million; Haryana – 25 million; Jharkhand – 32 million
India has 29 states and seven union territories. Indian states are big – Maharashtra, whose capital is Mumbai, has 112 million people, Haryana 25 million, and Jharkhand 32 million. Coalitions headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently control all three state legislatures. The BJP won a massive victory in elections to the Lok Sabha, India’s national parliament, earlier this year, giving it a second term in power as the majority party able to govern without coalition partners, in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – did well in a series of state elections late last year but is reeling from the whiplash of defeat in the Lok Sabha polls.
The state elections are happening in the context of a renewed push from Modi to institute “one nation, one election” – a proposal to hold state elections at the same time as elections to the Lok Sabha. Critics say the plan is a ploy to centralize power, part of a pattern that includes Modi’s surprise decision to strip the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir of its autonomy. Critics accuse Modi and the BJP of increasing authoritarianism.
Thailand Parliamentary By-Election in Nakhon Pathom – October 23, 2019 and Local - March 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 68.6 million
The March 24, 2019 parliamentary election nominally returned Thailand to civilian rule following a military coup in 2014.
The main political fault line during the elections was between pro- and anti-junta political parties. Pheu Thai, a populist party founded by controversial former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra – who was ousted from office and convicted of corruption and is now living in exile – won the most seats (136 out of 500). However, Pheu Thai’s negotiations with the newly-formed progressive Future Forward Party (FFP) and several others fell through. For two decades, the (sometimes violent) fight between Thaksin and the military dominated Thai politics, and FFP originally been formed to give voters an alternative.
Former junta chief Prayuth Chan-ocha’s new pro-junta Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) then formed a government in coalition with several other parties, including former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s Democrats. Prayuth became prime minister. The military still wields considerable power behind the scenes.
Malaysia Parliamentary By-Election in Tanjong Piai – November 16, 2019 and Local Elections – TBD
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 31.8 million
In last year’s parliamentary elections, Mahathir Mohamed led his Pakatan Haratan (Alliance of Hope) party to a surprise victory over the Barisan Nasional coalition and its primary member, United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which had been in power since Malaysia’s 1957 independence. In 1976, the government abolished local elections and instituted the practice of appointing the members of the country’s 146 local councils. Malaysia is currently debating whether to hold local elections.
Tanjong Piai is home to mainland Eurasia’s southernmost point. The parliamentary seat became open when incumbent Md Farid Md Rafik died of a heart attack on September 21 at age 42. Md Farid was a member of the PH, and he narrowly defeated incumbent Wee Jeck Seng from the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA), a member of the BN coalition, and the PAS candidate in a three-way contest.
Sri Lanka Presidential – November 16, 2019 (confirmed) and Parliamentary – February 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 22.6 million
Sri Lanka is still feeling the aftershocks of a series of terrorist attacks over Easter 2019 and a 2018 political crisis in which President Maithripala Sirisena tried to dissolve parliament and remove Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe from office and replace him with former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was president from 2005 to 2015. Ultimately, Wickremesinghe was reinstated, but the crisis has deep roots and tensions remain high in Sri Lankan politics.
The two major parties are Sirisena’s center-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Wickremesinghe’s center-right United National Party. Rajapaksa left the SLPF in 2018 and now leads the populist Sri Lanka People’s Front/Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). In the last presidential elections, Rajapaksa surprisingly lost to Sirisena, who embarked on a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Rajapaksa had built up. SLPP did well in local elections last year.
Out of a record 35 presidential candidates, the two frontrunners former defense chief Gotabaya Rajapaksa (Mahinda’s brother), who has been accused of war crimes (Mahinda is not eligible to run for president again due to term limits adopted during Sirisena’s presidency), as well as Sajith Premadasa from UNP, who bested Wickremesinghe in the party’s bitterly-fought nomination contest. Premadasa is the son of former president Ranasinghe Premadasa, and has sought to bolster his campaign’s national security credentials by promising to appoint a former wartime army chief as head of national security if elected. Rajapaksa is presenting himself as a strongman, promising to eliminate Islamist terrorists.
Sirisena has announced that he will not seek re-election, and for the first time ever, the SLFP will not be fielding a presidential candidate. Thus Sri Lanka’s party system is in the midst of a realignment. International observers have noted that the fluid party situation could make the election more competitive, but also note concerns about media bias, transparency in campaign finance, voter education, and party conduct. Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice, and the upcoming elections could well determine whether it strengthens or deteriorates.
Marshall Islands Legislative – November 18, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic (in free association with the US)
Population: 75,684
At stake: All 33 seats in the Nitijeļā, unicameral Legislature of the Marshall Islands
Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
Population: 7.2 million
A series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets on at least one occasion – has been taking place in Hong Kong since the beginning of the summer. The proximate cause was a controversial extradition bill, but even though the bill has been put on hold, protesters persist, calling for more democracy and free elections. The police have responded violently and pro-Beijing forces have sought to smear and demoralize the protesters. There are fears that Beijing could send troops, but Hong Kong’s activists vow to continue until they succeed in their goals.
Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. The protest movement could boost the pro-democracy camp.
Taiwan Presidential and Legislative – January 11, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Taiwan Presidential and Legislative – January 11, 2020
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 23.5 million
Taiwan has a robust democracy. The two main parties are President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT, founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate. Tsai won the DPP presidential primary. Beijing’s choice, Han Kuo-yu, the populist firebrand mayor of Kaohsiung, a major port city in the south, won the KMT primary. His opponent, Foxconn founder Terry Guo, Taiwan’s richest man, is mulling an independent bid in the general election.
The DPP currently controls the Legislative Yuan. Last year’s local elections swept the KMT back into many local offices that they had lost during the 2014 local elections – with some interference from China. China is expected to attempt to influence the upcoming elections as well.
Philippines Village Elections – May 11, 2020 (delay to 2023 possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 105.9 million
Political parties in the Philippines are weak, and politics tends to be based not on ideology but rather personality and dynasty (for instance, a survey in 2014 found that 70 percent of elected representatives were members of political dynasties). In 2016, Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider (although his daughter, Sara, now holds the mayorship of Davao, her father’s former job). Duterte has governed with an iron fist, waging a drug war that has resulted in thousands of extrajudicial killings, sparking an investigation by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity. The government has cracked down on critics, including elected officials and journalists. Duterte allies swept the 2019 midterm legislative and local elections.
There is currently talk of postponing the village and youth council elections to 2023 and extending the mandates of the current office-holders. The last village and youth council elections were also postponed, so this would be the second time for an election to be postponed under Duterte.
Burma Parliamentary – Expected late 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 55.6 million
Burma, also called Myanmar, seemed to be moving toward democracy following the country’s first credible, relatively free elections in 2015, which swept Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) to power following decades of military dictatorship. Once held up by the global community as a paragon of moral authority for giving up her own freedom in the fight for democracy, Suu Kyi’s tenure as the country’s de facto leader has disappointed many. Burma still has hundreds of political prisoners, including many who were arrested after the NLD came to power.
Ethnic conflicts continue between the dominant Burmans, who comprise roughly 60 percent of the population, and different minority groups. The crisis in Rakhine or Arakan State with the Muslim Rohingya, which some have called a genocide, has created 700,000 refugees in neighboring Bangladesh and 128,000 internally displaced people. During by-elections in 2018, the NLD won seven out of 13 seats, but lost five out of six in non-Burman areas.
New Zealand Local – October 12, 2019 and Parliamentary – by November 21, 2020 (likely to be earlier)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Population: 4.5 million
New Zealand’s two main parties are the center-left Labour Party and center-right National Party. National won the most votes and seats in the 2017 elections, but not enough to form a government. Labour formed a coalition with New Zealand First, a populist party that has worked with both Labour and National in the past, backed by a confidence and supply agreement with the Green Party (Labour and New Zealand First combined have the same number of seats as National – 55). Labour leader Jacinda Ardern – a former DJ who is on the left wing of the party – became Prime Minister and is currently the world’s youngest female government.
Local elections in New Zealand have had low turnout for decades, but the local polls could serve as an interesting barometer ahead of next year’s parliamentary polls – which are due by November 2020 but could be called earlier – for which parties have already started campaigning.
Indonesia General – April 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 262.8 million
In Indonesia’s April 2019 election – the biggest single day of voting in the history of the world – incumbent Joko Widodo (Jokowi), widely seen as a reformer, defeated challenged Prabowo Subianto for the presidency in an election deemed free and fair by the international community. However, Prabowo didn’t accept the results, and in addition to challenging them in court, he urged his supporters to take to the streets. Rioting ensued. Prabowo ultimately accepted the results, but tensions remain, particularly regarding the role of religion in politics.
Indonesia will hold regional elections in September 2020, and the next presidential election is due in 2024.
Cambodia General – July 29, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 16.4 million
Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that had some element of competition, the 2018 election – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.
The 2018 election has been described as the “death of democracy” in Cambodia. Since then, Cambodia has worked to suppress all critical voices, including journalists, civil society, and the opposition. The United States sanctioned Cambodia’s top officials in response.
Upcoming Asia Elections
India, Haryana State and Maharashtra State Assemblies – October 21, 2019 Jharkhand State Assembly – November 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: India – 1.3 billion; Maharashtra -112 million; Haryana – 25 million; Jharkhand – 32 million
India has 29 states and seven union territories. Indian states are big – Maharashtra, whose capital is Mumbai, has 112 million people, Haryana 25 million, and Jharkhand 32 million. Coalitions headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently control all three state legislatures. The BJP won a massive victory in elections to the Lok Sabha, India’s national parliament, earlier this year, giving it a second term in power as the majority party able to govern without coalition partners, in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – did well in a series of state elections late last year but is reeling from the whiplash of defeat in the Lok Sabha polls.
The state elections are happening in the context of a renewed push from Modi to institute “one nation, one election” – a proposal to hold state elections at the same time as elections to the Lok Sabha. Critics say the plan is a ploy to centralize power, part of a pattern that includes Modi’s surprise decision to strip the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir of its autonomy. Critics accuse Modi and the BJP of increasing authoritarianism.
Priyanjana Bengani, Columbia Journalism Review: “India had its first ‘WhatsApp election.’ We have a million messages from it”
Updated October 21, 2019
Business Standard (India): “Elections LIVE: Exit polls give BJP, allies victory in Maharashtra, Haryana: Low to average voter turnout was reported in assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana, where the BJP is seeking a second term in power and has predicted an easy victory.”
Prabhash K Dutta, India Today: “Why Maharashtra, Haryana assembly elections matter | 5 points: There are many firsts associated with Maharashtra, Haryana assembly elections which may be sample survey or referendum on issues that dominated national politics since May 2019 Lok Sabha poll results.”
Thailand Parliamentary By-Election in Nakhon Pathom – October 23, 2019 and Local – March 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 68.6 million
The March 24, 2019 parliamentary election nominally returned Thailand to civilian rule following a military coup in 2014.
The main political fault line during the elections was between pro- and anti-junta political parties. Pheu Thai, a populist party founded by controversial former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra – who was ousted from office and convicted of corruption and is now living in exile – won the most seats (136 out of 500). However, Pheu Thai’s negotiations with the newly-formed progressive Future Forward Party (FFP) and several others fell through. For two decades, the (sometimes violent) fight between Thaksin and the military dominated Thai politics, and FFP originally been formed to give voters an alternative.
Former junta chief Prayuth Chan-ocha’s new pro-junta Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) then formed a government in coalition with several other parties, including former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s Democrats. Prayuth became prime minister. The military still wields considerable power behind the scenes.
Hathai Techakitteranun, Straits Times: “Thailand to hold by-election next week with race almost a rerun of March vote: Thailand is heading for a by-election next Wednesday (Oct 23) with three others in the pipeline, and their outcomes will be crucial for a governing coalition with a razor-thin majority in the Lower House of Parliament.”
Joshua Kurlantzick, World Politics Review: “Why the Thai King’s Power Grab Could Backfire….Although lese majeste laws outlaw public criticism, Thais are generally well aware of Vajiralongkorn’s past and present conduct. There is little evidence he has boosted his popularity as king. His maneuvering is making enemies among business, military and political elites, in addition to quiet republicans who already distrusted the monarchy.”
James Massola, Sydney Morning Herald: “Thailand’s king has stripped his royal consort of her titles and military ranks for disloyalty, accusing her of seeking to undermine the country’s queen, in the latest move from the recently-crowned King.”
The Economist: “Thailand’s army chief sees a commie conspiracy to topple the king. He is helping to set the country on a course for further division and rancour.”
Sheith Khidhir, ASEAN Post: “Is Thailand risking another massacre?”
Updated October 21, 2019
Bangkok Post: “Seven parties contesting Wednesday’s by-election in Nakhon Pathom: The political focus will be on Nakhon Pathom on Wednesday when voters return to the ballot box after the Forward Future MP for constituency 5 stepped down following an accident.”
Malaysia Parliamentary By-Election in Tanjong Piai – November 16, 2019 and Local Elections – TBD
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 31.8 million
In last year’s parliamentary elections, Mahathir Mohamed led his Pakatan Haratan (Alliance of Hope) party to a surprise victory over the Barisan Nasional coalition and its primary member, United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which had been in power since Malaysia’s 1957 independence. In 1976, the government abolished local elections and instituted the practice of appointing the members of the country’s 146 local councils. Malaysia is currently debating whether to hold local elections.
Tanjong Piai is home to mainland Eurasia’s southernmost point. The parliamentary seat became open when incumbent Md Farid Md Rafik died of a heart attack on September 21 at age 42. Md Farid was a member of the PH, and he narrowly defeated incumbent Wee Jeck Seng from the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA), a member of the BN coalition, and the PAS candidate in a three-way contest.
Prashanth Parameswaran, The Diplomat: “Meredith Weiss on Politics in a New Malaysia: A conversation on the state of Malaysia’s politics under the Pakatan Harapan government.”
Free Malaysia Today: “Former DAP member Hew Kuan Yau says that his comic book titled ‘Belt & Road Initiative for Win and Winism’ has caused controversy because the Tanjung Piai by-election is near. He said in view of the by-election, the comic book had become an issue as the government wanted to win the support of the Malay voters.”
Updated October 21, 2019
Justin Ong, Malay Mail: “DAP Youth insists ‘Superman’s’ pro-China comic not linked to party: DAP and its Youth wing were completely uninvolved in a propaganda comic book that promoted China’s Belt-Road Initiative and was produced by ex-member Hew Kuan Yew, said Howard Lee.”
Brian Braun, Council on Foreign Relations’ Asia Unbound: “Malaysia’s Voting Age Amendment: A Double-Edged Sword for Political Leaders.”
Sri Lanka Presidential – November 16, 2019 (confirmed) and Parliamentary – February 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 22.6 million
Sri Lanka is still feeling the aftershocks of a series of terrorist attacks over Easter 2019 and a 2018 political crisis in which President Maithripala Sirisena tried to dissolve parliament and remove Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe from office and replace him with former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was president from 2005 to 2015. Ultimately, Wickremesinghe was reinstated, but the crisis has deep roots and tensions remain high in Sri Lankan politics.
The two major parties are Sirisena’s center-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Wickremesinghe’s center-right United National Party. Rajapaksa left the SLPF in 2018 and now leads the populist Sri Lanka People’s Front/Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). In the last presidential elections, Rajapaksa surprisingly lost to Sirisena, who embarked on a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Rajapaksa had built up. SLPP did well in local elections last year.
Out of a record 35 presidential candidates, the two frontrunners former defense chief Gotabaya Rajapaksa (Mahinda’s brother), who has been accused of war crimes (Mahinda is not eligible to run for president again due to term limits adopted during Sirisena’s presidency), as well as Sajith Premadasa from UNP, who bested Wickremesinghe in the party’s bitterly-fought nomination contest. Premadasa is the son of former president Ranasinghe Premadasa, and has sought to bolster his campaign’s national security credentials by promising to appoint a former wartime army chief as head of national security if elected. Rajapaksa is presenting himself as a strongman, promising to eliminate Islamist terrorists.
Sirisena has announced that he will not seek re-election, and for the first time ever, the SLFP will not be fielding a presidential candidate. Thus Sri Lanka’s party system is in the midst of a realignment. International observers have noted that the fluid party situation could make the election more competitive, but also note concerns about media bias, transparency in campaign finance, voter education, and party conduct. Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice, and the upcoming elections could well determine whether it strengthens or deteriorates.
Brahma Chellaney, Project Syndicate: “The End of Sri Lankan Democracy? At a time of growing international skepticism toward China’s Belt and Road Initiative, the Rajapaksa family’s potential return to power is welcome news for Chinese President Xi Jinping. But it is bad news for practically everyone else.”
Marshall Islands Legislative – November 18, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic (in free association with the US)
Population: 75,684
At stake: All 33 seats in the Nitijeļā, unicameral Legislature of the Marshall Islands
Giff Johnson, Radio New Zealand: “In the wake of last week’s Marshall Islands Supreme Court ruling declaring a Nitijela (Parliament) law banning postal ballots unconstitutional, a battle is brewing among elected leaders and lawsuit plaintiffs over what should happen for next month’s national election, scheduled for 18 November.”
Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
Population: 7.2 million
A series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets on at least one occasion – has been taking place in Hong Kong since the beginning of the summer. The proximate cause was a controversial extradition bill, but even though the bill has been put on hold, protesters persist, calling for more democracy and free elections. The police have responded violently and pro-Beijing forces have sought to smear and demoralize the protesters. There are fears that Beijing could send troops, but Hong Kong’s activists vow to continue until they succeed in their goals.
Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. The protest movement could boost the pro-democracy camp.
Kris Cheng, Hong Kong Free Press: “Chief Exec. Carrie Lam urges peaceful District Council election as US senator labels Hong Kong a ‘police state’”
Felix Tam, Reuters: “Protests turn Hong Kong’s council elections into referendum on Lam’s government: Pro-democracy candidates will stand in almost all 452 seats in Hong Kong’s upcoming local elections, encouraged by four months of anti-government protests, with the outcome of the November poll a barometer of support for the city’s embattled government.”
Kimmy Chung and Jeffie Lam, South China Morning Post: “As Hong Kong heads towards District Elections, calls for ‘revolution’ raise chances of more candidate disqualifications: At least four candidates have been asked to explain their use of a popular slogan among the city’s protesters – ‘Liberate Hong Kong; revolution of our times’ – which has touched a nerve with the authorities.”
Keith Bradsher, New York Times: “Why the Protests in Hong Kong May Have No End in Sight”
Taiwan Presidential and Legislative – January 11, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 23.5 million
Taiwan has a robust democracy. The two main parties are President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT, founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate. Tsai won the DPP presidential primary. Beijing’s choice, Han Kuo-yu, the populist firebrand mayor of Kaohsiung, a major port city in the south, won the KMT primary. His opponent, Foxconn founder Terry Guo, Taiwan’s richest man, is mulling an independent bid in the general election.
The DPP currently controls the Legislative Yuan. Last year’s local elections swept the KMT back into many local offices that they had lost during the 2014 local elections – with some interference from China. China is expected to attempt to influence the upcoming elections as well.
Kent Wang, Asia Times: “Five key points on Taiwan presidential election: It is far too early to know how the next Taiwan presidential election will play out, but the elections in January are slated to be the most important in nearly a quarter of a century. What makes this election different?”
Philippines Village Elections – May 11, 2020 (delay to 2023 possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 105.9 million
Political parties in the Philippines are weak, and politics tends to be based not on ideology but rather personality and dynasty (for instance, a survey in 2014 found that 70 percent of elected representatives were members of political dynasties). In 2016, Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider (although his daughter, Sara, now holds the mayorship of Davao, her father’s former job). Duterte has governed with an iron fist, waging a drug war that has resulted in thousands of extrajudicial killings, sparking an investigation by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity. The government has cracked down on critics, including elected officials and journalists. Duterte allies swept the 2019 midterm legislative and local elections.
There is currently talk of postponing the village and youth council elections to 2023 and extending the mandates of the current office-holders. The last village and youth council elections were also postponed, so this would be the second time for an election to be postponed under Duterte.
Clarissa Batino, Bloomberg: “The lead of Philippines’ Vice President Leni Robredo over Ferdinand Marcos Jr. widened in the results of the protest recount in three provinces chosen by the late dictator’s son, according to the electoral tribunal.”
Joshua Hammer, New York Times: “The Journalist vs. the President, With Life on the Line Maria Ressa, editor of a popular news site in the Philippines, has incurred President Duterte and his supporters’ wrath by investigating his extrajudicial killing campaign.”
Burma Parliamentary – Expected late 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 55.6 million
Burma, also called Myanmar, seemed to be moving toward democracy following the country’s first credible, relatively free elections in 2015, which swept Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) to power following decades of military dictatorship. Once held up by the global community as a paragon of moral authority for giving up her own freedom in the fight for democracy, Suu Kyi’s tenure as the country’s de facto leader has disappointed many. Burma still has hundreds of political prisoners, including many who were arrested after the NLD came to power.
Ethnic conflicts continue between the dominant Burmans, who comprise roughly 60 percent of the population, and different minority groups. The crisis in Rakhine or Arakan State with the Muslim Rohingya, which some have called a genocide, has created 700,000 refugees in neighboring Bangladesh and 128,000 internally displaced people. During by-elections in 2018, the NLD won seven out of 13 seats, but lost five out of six in non-Burman areas.
Htet Naing Zaw, The Irrawaddy: “NLD: Myanmar Military MPs’ Meetings With Public an ‘Unethical’ Poll Tactic”
Past Asia Elections
New Zealand Local – October 12, 2019 and Parliamentary – by November 21, 2020 (likely to be earlier)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Population: 4.5 million
New Zealand’s two main parties are the center-left Labour Party and center-right National Party. National won the most votes and seats in the 2017 elections, but not enough to form a government. Labour formed a coalition with New Zealand First, a populist party that has worked with both Labour and National in the past, backed by a confidence and supply agreement with the Green Party (Labour and New Zealand First combined have the same number of seats as National – 55). Labour leader Jacinda Ardern – a former DJ who is on the left wing of the party – became Prime Minister and is currently the world’s youngest female government.
Local elections in New Zealand have had low turnout for decades, but the local polls could serve as an interesting barometer ahead of next year’s parliamentary polls – which are due by November 2020 but could be called earlier – for which parties have already started campaigning.
Charlotte Graham-McLay, The Guardian: “’Youthquake’: The young New Zealanders voted into office – in between McDonald’s shifts – The number of elected officials under 30 doubled in city and district elections. Here a selection of them speak about their priorities.”
Charlotte Graham-McLay, New York Times: “Peter Jackson Has a Lot of Power in New Zealand. Some Say Too Much. The filmmaker’s intervention in a mayoral race, part of an effort to block a housing plan, was unheard-of in a country where money and fame are usually wielded lightly.”
Eleanor Ainge Roy, The Guardian: “’Profoundly wrong’: Wellington’s new mayor denies being Peter Jackson ‘puppet’: Andy Foster says financial backing from Lord of the Rings director was not reason for his victory in New Zealand capital.”
Reuters: “New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is pleased with her government’s progress, she said on Tuesday, after two closely watched opinion polls showed support for her ruling coalition at its lowest since 2017, and her own popularity waning.”
Updated October 21, 2019
Jason Walls, New Zealand Herald: “PM Jacinda Ardern won’t say if she would prefer NZ First or Greens as a potential sole coalition partner”
Indonesia General – April 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 262.8 million
In Indonesia’s April 2019 election – the biggest single day of voting in the history of the world – incumbent Joko Widodo (Jokowi), widely seen as a reformer, defeated challenged Prabowo Subianto for the presidency in an election deemed free and fair by the international community. However, Prabowo didn’t accept the results, and in addition to challenging them in court, he urged his supporters to take to the streets. Rioting ensued. Prabowo ultimately accepted the results, but tensions remain, particularly regarding the role of religion in politics.
Indonesia will hold regional elections in September 2020, and the next presidential election is due in 2024.
Max Walden and Erwin Renaldi, ABC News (Australia): “How did Indonesia’s Jokowi and Prabowo go from enemies to best mates?”
Arys Aditya and Karlis Salna, Bloomberg: “Indonesia Oligarchs Are Trying to Yank Power From the President: Indonesia’s elites are edging closer to securing constitutional changes to strip President Joko Widodo of key powers in a move that could eventually end direct elections, presenting the most crucial test for democracy in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy since the downfall of the dictator Suharto in 1998.”
Updated October 20, 2019
Richard C. Paddock and Muktita Suhartono, New York Times: “Indonesian President Is Sworn In Amid High Security and Protest Ban Joko Widodo took the oath of office for a second term as he faces public opposition over his willingness to limit personal freedoms and weaken the corruption fight.”
Updated October 21, 2019
Niniek Karmini, AP: “Indonesia’s opposition leader and losing presidential candidate said Monday that he will join his election rival’s Cabinet to help strengthen the country’s defense, signaling a calming of political tensions in the world’s third-largest democracy.”
Cambodia General – July 29, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 16.4 million
Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that had some element of competition, the 2018 election – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.
The 2018 election has been described as the “death of democracy” in Cambodia. Since then, Cambodia has worked to suppress all critical voices, including journalists, civil society, and the opposition. The United States sanctioned Cambodia’s top officials in response.
Andrew Nachemson and Yon Sineat, Al Jazeera: “Authorities in Cambodia have labelled opposition leader Sam Rainsy’s plan to return next month from exile a “coup”, and stepped up a crackdown on his supporters. At least 27 members of the banned Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) have been arrested since the start of the year accused of plotting a coup and many more have faced various other political charges, the party said.”
Radio Free Asia: “Cambodian Opposition Leader Sam Rainsy Vows to Lead ‘Tsunami’ of Supporters to Arrest PM Hun Sen”
Clare Baldwin and Andrew RC Marshall, Reuters Investigates: “Cambodia’s ruling elite are patriots who would never hide money abroad, says the country’s leader, Hun Sen. But a Reuters investigation shows that Hun Sen’s family and officials have overseas assets worth tens of millions of dollars, and some have bought themselves European citizenship.”
A voter in Ban Khung Taphao, Thailand, during the 2007 general elections. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Tevaprapas (public domain)
21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.
The Year Ahead: Asia Elections
Japan, provincial elections throughout the year; India, Maharashtra and Haryana states (October 21); Marshall Islands legislative (November 18); India Jharkhand State (November); Sri Lanka presidential (November 16); Hong Kong local (November 24); Kiribati legislative (December); Nepal by-elections (December 30); Taiwan presidential and legislative (January 11); Kiribati presidential (March); Maldives local (April); South Korea parliamentary (April 15); Niue parliamentary (May); Philippines village and youth council (May 11 – delay to 2023 possible); Mongolia parliamentary (June)
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Category: This Week Tags: Burma, Cambodia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Marshall Islands, New Zealand, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand