Africa This Week – October 21, 2019

October 21, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Africa elections on Mondays. Click the map pins.

Botswana Parliamentary – October 23, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free 
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 2.2 million

Botswana, the world’s second-largest producer of diamonds, is a stable democracy with regular free, fair, credible elections. In 2018, President Ian Khama stepped down exactly 10 years after his inauguration, in keeping with the constitutional limit of two terms in office (his predecessor had done the same thing).

Mokgweetsi Masisi, the former vice president, is filling the role of the presidency until after the elections, when the National Assembly will choose a new president. Khama’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – founded by his father, Seretse Khama – has dominated politics since independence in 1966, but soon after leaving office, Khama left the BDP to support a new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front (BFP), which has ties to the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), Botswana’s main opposition coalition. The split has the opportunity to open up debate on actual policy, but it could devolve into a personal power struggle. There is concern that some of Botswana’s institutions are eroding.

The National Assembly will elect a new president following the parliamentary elections.

Tanzania Local – November 24, 2019 and General – October 2020 (due)

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 55.5 million

Tanzania’s socialist Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and its predecessors have been in power since 1961. In the 2015 elections, deemed imperfect but credible by observers, John Magufuli won, and has since launched a crackdown on the opposition, media, civil society, and the private sector. The main opposition center-right Chadema, whose leader Freeman Mbowe recently spent nearly five months in prison on charges of sedition, currently holds 62 out of 384 seats in the unicameral National Assembly. Edward Lowassa, a former CCM prime minister who ran for president in 2015 as the candidate of Chadema and a coalition of other opposition parties, won 40 percent of the vote. Lowassa has since returned to CCM along with other opposition figures who have been bribed or bullied into crossing the aisle and joining the ruling party.

The Economist notes, “Today Tanzania is on the descent from patchy democracy towards slapdash dictatorship.”

Nigeria Kogi and Bayelsa State Governorships and Niger State Local Government – November 16, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Party Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: Nigeria – 203.5 million; Kogi State – 3.1 million; Bayelsa State – 1.7 million; Niger State – 4 million (Nigeria’s largest state)

Nigeria, the “Giant of Africa,” as Nigerians call the continent’s most populous country, has a history of military coups, and since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international and Nigerian observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.

The two main political parties are the “sort-of-right” People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and “sort-of-left” All Progressives Congress (APC), plus a plethora of smaller parties. Historically, PDP has been strong in Christian areas and in the south, while APC has been strong in the mostly-Muslim north. Nigeria is about half Christian and half Muslim, and there is some religious conflict, but religion is not the only driver of conflict in the country. There is a handshake agreement that the presidency will rotate between the north and the south every eight years, regardless of which party wins; thus, for the 2019 election, both major parties chose candidates from the north. PDP nominated Atiku Abubakar to challenge APC incumbent Muhammadu Buhari, who won narrowly. APC also won a majority in the legislature.

A debate over federalism played a major role in Nigeria’s February 2019 general elections. Atiku advocated for a greater devolution of powers to state governments, a proposal that Buhari categorically opposed. Political power is currently highly centralized, but many argue that it is dysfunctional.

Voters in 29 of Nigeria’s 36 states elected governors during the general elections in February 2019. Bayelsa State in the southern oil-producing Niger Delta, and Kogi State in the Middle Belt have gubernatorial elections in mid-November. (The Middle Belt is a largely-agricultural area that forms the border between the mostly-Muslim north and mostly Christian south, and the site of a deadly conflict between farmers and herders.) PDP currently control Bayelsa (and 13 other states), and APC currently controls the remaining states, including Kogi. These state elections are taking place in the context of continued litigation over the national elections. Atiku has challenged his defeat in court, alleging electoral fraud. A tribunal rejected his complaint, but he is expected to appeal.

Guinea-Bissau Presidential – November 24, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 1.8 million

In March 2019, Guinea-Bissau finally held long-delayed legislative elections. The ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) won 47 out of 102 seats, but made deals with three smaller parties to form a coalition with 54 seats. Prone to coups (most recently in 2012), no elected leader has served a full term since independence from Portugal. The country remains in a political crisis, with President José Mário Vaz (known as Jomav) in a feud with his own party (PAIGC). Vaz plans to run for re-election. Sometimes dubbed “the world’s first narco-state,” it risks once again becoming a hub for drug traffickers. 

Namibia Presidential and Legislative – November 27, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 2.5 million

Namibia is a free, stable democracy. Since independence from South Africa in 1990, Namibian politics have been dominated by the socialist Swapo, an independence movement-turned-political party. In the 2014 elections, judged free, fair, and credible by observers, Swapo’s presidential candidate, Hage Geingob, won 87 percent of the vote. The party also won 80 percent of votes in the legislative elections. The Economist Intelligence Unit predicts that Swapo will win the 2019 elections but its majority will decrease.

Madagascar Local – November 27, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 25.7 million

Madagascar’s politics are turbulent and corruption remains a major problem. In 2009, the country had a coup. Andry Rajoelina, then the 34-year-old populist mayor of the capital, Antananarivo, declared he was in charge and ousted then-president Marc Ravalomanana. While Ravalomanana’s tenure in office was marked by economic growth, the economy slumped under Rajoelina. Elections were restored in 2013. Both Ravalomanana and Rajoelina agreed not to run (although both mulled going back on this promise), and Rajoelina’s candidate, former finance minister Hery Rajaonarimampianina, won.

Madagascar’s most recent presidential election was in late 2018, and an initial crowd of 36 candidates included four former presidents and three former prime ministers. In the runoff, Ravalomanana faced off against Rajoelina, with Rajoelina winning (Rajaonarimampianina, finished third in the first round and thus did not make the runoff). Ravalomanana had promised to accept the result, but he contested it, and protests followed. Rajoelina’s coalition won a majority in the May 2019 parliamentary elections, but the opposition alleged fraud.

For the mayor of Antananarivo, Naina Andriantsitohaina, who recently stepped down as foreign minister, is Rajoelina’s candidate and will face off against opposition candidate Randriamasinoro Tahiry Ny Rina, secretary general of the capital’s urban community. Former president Marc Ravalomanana declined to enter the race, surprising many.

Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – Early 2020 (delayed from October 2019)

Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 25.6 million

Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.

Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat. The political crisis has an ethnic dimension.

Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections, which are likely delayed following a July vote by the National Assembly to extend its term in office (the National Assembly’s second extension). The mandates were set to expire October 29, 2019 and have been extended for two months, so the elections that had been due in October most likely will not happen before 2020.

Guinea Legislative – 2019 and Presidential – October 2020 (due)

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.9 million

Elections in Guinea routinely see significant delays and have historically been surrounded by ethnic tensions and violence. President Alpha Condé, a former opposition leader who came to power in 2010 following a transition from military to civilian rule, is prevented by the constitution from running for a third term in the presidential polls due in 2020. However, he wants to change the constitution to allow him to do so (which Russia is encouraging because Russian companies have mining interests in Guinea).

The terms of the current legislators expired in January 2019. Condé extended their mandates, and a new election date has not been set. The election commission has proposed holding them on December 28, 2019, but the opposition says the date is not realistic.

Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020

Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 108.4 million

In 1974, communist rebels deposed Ethiopia’s Emperor Haile Selassie and instituted the Derg (“Committee”), a Marxist military junta led by Mengistu Haile Mariam, which brought forth famines and a collapse of Ethiopia’s economy. It governed brutally, even genocidally. Following a civil war, the Derg was ousted in 1991 by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a coalition of ethnically-based rebel militias. The EPRDF took power and morphed into a coalition of four ethnically-based political parties: Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Amhara Democratic Party (ADP), Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), and Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM). In power, EPRDF instituted a controversial ethnically-based federalist system that has led to a current climate of tension and unrest.

EPRDF has held elections regularly, but aside from the 2005 polls, none were competitive or credible. In the last elections, in 2015, the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats. However, following three years of protests, the EPRDF chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister in 2018. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners, opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space, and holding free and fair elections in 2020. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles, including entrenched opposition to democracy within EPRDF. However, ongoing ethnic conflict could threaten Abiy’s reforms. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful.

Ghana Presidential and Legislative – December 7, 2020

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 28.1 million

Ghana’s two main political parties, the center-right New Patriotic Party (NPP) and center-left National Democratic Congress (NDC), have alternated stints in power since Ghana began holding multiparty elections. Ghana is often cited as a success story for democratic transition, despite some lingering issues.

Although each party has bases of support in certain regions or ethnic groups, the parties define themselves by ideology and campaign on issues. In the 2016 presidential polls, NPP’s Nana Akufo-Addo defeated incumbent John Mahama from the NDC following a contentious campaign. Eleven parties competed in the parliamentary elections, but only the NPP and the NDC won seats, with the NPP winning a majority.

Uganda General - February 2021

Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Partly Free this year)
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 40.9 million

President Yoweri Museveni has held power since 1986 and looks likely to seek a sixth term. Musaveni is seen as an ally to Western governments on counterterrorism issues, despite concerns about human rights and civil liberties.

Musaveni’s National Resistance Movement (NRM), an authoritarian nationalist party, was originally a militia involved in the struggle to topple the government in 1986. In the last presidential election in 2016 (which was marred by an uneven playing field and government use of state resources and security services for political purposes), Kizza Besigye of the main opposition center-right Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) won 35.6 percent, coming in second. NRM holds 293 out of 426 seats in parliament, and FDC holds 36 (other opposition parties hold 21).

For the upcoming elections, 37-year-old pop star Bobi Wine has emerged as a leading opposition candidate. Wine campaigned with FDC’s candidate in a recent by-election.

South Sudan General – 2021

Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 10.2 million

South Sudan has been struggling since independence in 2011, and has been in an ethnically-based civil war since 2013, when President Salva Kiir and his former vice president, Riek Machar, fell out. A peace deal in 2015 did not end the conflict. In 2018, Kiir and Machar signed another peace agreement, but the implementation has been marred by delays.

The country has not held elections since independence. Kiir had been president of the semi-autonomous region while it was still part of Sudan, and he remained in office following independence. The legislature’s mandate expired in 2015 (it had been elected in 2010, before independence), and has been extended several times. The latest extension goes through May 2022. Kiir and Machar are discussing the formation of a unity government until elections can be held.

Sudan General – 2022

Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 43.1 million

In April, nonviolent demonstrations ousted Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir. In June 2019, around the 30th anniversary of Tiananmen Square, Sudanese troops massacred citizens protesting the regime. In August 2019, military officers and civilian leaders reached an agreement to share power until elections in 2022.

Mozambique Presidential, Legislative, and Provincial – October 15, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 27.2 million

Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since then until an August 2019 peace accord). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.

Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth. Russia has ramped up its involvement in Mozambique’s energy and security sectors.

RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities. In the upcoming elections, in addition to voting for president, citizens will elect provincial governors directly for the first time – previously, they had been appointed by the president.

These elections were characterized by violence in the lead-up, including the murder of an election observer. A breakaway faction of RENAMO threatened violence if the elections proceeded. FRELIMO won, but RENAMO alleged fraud and insisted on a re-run (which is unlikely to happen).

Democratic Republic of the Congo General – December 30, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 85.3 million

The DRC’s December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu. When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi. The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country, but both have returned. The opposition holds that Kabila is still in control.

The DRC is scheduled to hold long-overdue local elections on September 22, 2019, elections that have been postponed numerous times since 2006. The Independent National Election Commission (CENI) has not yet begun preparations, making another delay almost certain.

The Gambia Presidential – December 1, 2016  and Legislative – April 6, 2017

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 2.1 million

In December 2016, The Gambia began a remarkable transition to democracy. Citizens removed dictator Yahya Jammeh – who had come to power in a coup and ruled for 22 years – peacefully, via the ballot box, in a surprising result. Opposition candidate Adama Barrow won the presidency with the backing of a coalition of seven opposition parties. The country then began the process of establishing democracy and recovering from Jammeh’s brutal dictatorship.

The Gambia is actually the country’s name (unlike, for example, Ukraine or Sudan, to which many people attach the definite article), after the River Gambia, which is a source of national pride.

South Africa General – May 8, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 55.4 million

Upcoming Africa Elections
Botswana Parliamentary – October 23, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free 
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 2.2 million

Botswana, the world’s second-largest producer of diamonds, is a stable democracy with regular free, fair, credible elections. In 2018, President Ian Khama stepped down exactly 10 years after his inauguration, in keeping with the constitutional limit of two terms in office (his predecessor had done the same thing).

Mokgweetsi Masisi, the former vice president, is filling the role of the presidency until after the elections, when the National Assembly will choose a new president. Khama’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – founded by his father, Seretse Khama – has dominated politics since independence in 1966, but soon after leaving office, Khama left the BDP to support a new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front (BFP), which has ties to the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), Botswana’s main opposition coalition. The split has the opportunity to open up debate on actual policy, but it could devolve into a personal power struggle. There is concern that some of Botswana’s institutions are eroding.

The National Assembly will elect a new president following the parliamentary elections.

Shana Warren, Washington Post’s Monkey Cage: “Botswana’s ruling party has been in power 50 years. That could change this week.”

Peter Fabricus, ISS Today/Daily Maverick: “Economist Jefferis worries, though, that the [opposition party] UDC has made too many populist promises in its election manifesto, such as creating 100,000 jobs (in a population of 2.2 million), tripling the minimum wage and increasing old-age pensions. He fears that tripling the minimum wage would collapse jobs in an economy where unemployment is already some 30% (including those discouraged from seeking jobs).”

Joseph Cotterill, Financial Times: “Botswana’s ex-president hits out at successor ahead of election: Ian Khama accuses Mokgweetsi Masisi of damaging country’s reputation for good governance.”

Charlie Taylor, BBC: “Why Botswana’s election could be decided by elephants and diamonds”

Tanzania Local – November 24, 2019 and General – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 55.5 million

Tanzania’s socialist Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and its predecessors have been in power since 1961. In the 2015 elections, deemed imperfect but credible by observers, John Magufuli won, and has since launched a crackdown on the opposition, media, civil society, and the private sector. The main opposition center-right Chadema, whose leader Freeman Mbowe recently spent nearly five months in prison on charges of sedition, currently holds 62 out of 384 seats in the unicameral National Assembly. Edward Lowassa, a former CCM prime minister who ran for president in 2015 as the candidate of Chadema and a coalition of other opposition parties, won 40 percent of the vote. Lowassa has since returned to CCM along with other opposition figures who have been bribed or bullied into crossing the aisle and joining the ruling party.

The Economist notes, “Today Tanzania is on the descent from patchy democracy towards slapdash dictatorship.”

The Citizen (Tanzania): “Opposition rejects voter statistics ahead of Tanzania local govt polls”

Nigeria Kogi and Bayelsa State Governorships and Niger State Local Government – November 16, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Party Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: Nigeria – 203.5 million; Kogi State – 3.1 million; Bayelsa State – 1.7 million; Niger State – 4 million (Nigeria’s largest state)

Nigeria, the “Giant of Africa,” as Nigerians call the continent’s most populous country, has a history of military coups, and since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international and Nigerian observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.

The two main political parties are the “sort-of-right” People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and “sort-of-left” All Progressives Congress (APC), plus a plethora of smaller parties. Historically, PDP has been strong in Christian areas and in the south, while APC has been strong in the mostly-Muslim north. Nigeria is about half Christian and half Muslim, and there is some religious conflict, but religion is not the only driver of conflict in the country. There is a handshake agreement that the presidency will rotate between the north and the south every eight years, regardless of which party wins; thus, for the 2019 election, both major parties chose candidates from the north. PDP nominated Atiku Abubakar to challenge APC incumbent Muhammadu Buhari, who won narrowly. APC also won a majority in the legislature.

A debate over federalism played a major role in Nigeria’s February 2019 general elections. Atiku advocated for a greater devolution of powers to state governments, a proposal that Buhari categorically opposed. Political power is currently highly centralized, but many argue that it is dysfunctional.

Voters in 29 of Nigeria’s 36 states elected governors during the general elections in February 2019. Bayelsa State in the southern oil-producing Niger Delta, and Kogi State in the Middle Belt have gubernatorial elections in mid-November. (The Middle Belt is a largely-agricultural area that forms the border between the mostly-Muslim north and mostly Christian south, and the site of a deadly conflict between farmers and herders.) PDP currently control Bayelsa (and 13 other states), and APC currently controls the remaining states, including Kogi. These state elections are taking place in the context of continued litigation over the national elections. Atiku has challenged his defeat in court, alleging electoral fraud. A tribunal rejected his complaint, but he is expected to appeal.

Yomi Kazeem, Quartz: “WhatsApp is the medium of choice for older Nigerians spreading fake news”

Guinea-Bissau Presidential – November 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 1.8 million

In March 2019, Guinea-Bissau finally held long-delayed legislative elections. The ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) won 47 out of 102 seats, but made deals with three smaller parties to form a coalition with 54 seats. Prone to coups (most recently in 2012), no elected leader has served a full term since independence from Portugal. The country remains in a political crisis, with President José Mário Vaz (known as Jomav) in a feud with his own party (PAIGC). Vaz plans to run for re-election. Sometimes dubbed “the world’s first narco-state,” it risks once again becoming a hub for drug traffickers. 

UN Security Council: “The members of the Security Council reiterated the imperative need for the presidential election to be held on 24 November 2019, in accordance with the established electoral calendar, and reminded political actors that all efforts should be made to ensure the election is inclusive, credible, fair and peaceful with the effective participation of women and youth candidates.”

Namibia Presidential and Legislative – November 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 2.5 million

Namibia is a free, stable democracy. Since independence from South Africa in 1990, Namibian politics have been dominated by the socialist Swapo, an independence movement-turned-political party. In the 2014 elections, judged free, fair, and credible by observers, Swapo’s presidential candidate, Hage Geingob, won 87 percent of the vote. The party also won 80 percent of votes in the legislative elections. The Economist Intelligence Unit predicts that Swapo will win the 2019 elections but its majority will decrease.

Reuters: “Namibians will elect a president on Nov. 27, with Hage Geingob expected to be returned with a reduced margin as voters complain about the worst economic crisis since independence nearly 30 years ago.”

Madagascar Local – November 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 25.7 million

Madagascar’s politics are turbulent and corruption remains a major problem. In 2009, the country had a coup. Andry Rajoelina, then the 34-year-old populist mayor of the capital, Antananarivo, declared he was in charge and ousted then-president Marc Ravalomanana. While Ravalomanana’s tenure in office was marked by economic growth, the economy slumped under Rajoelina. Elections were restored in 2013. Both Ravalomanana and Rajoelina agreed not to run (although both mulled going back on this promise), and Rajoelina’s candidate, former finance minister Hery Rajaonarimampianina, won.

Madagascar’s most recent presidential election was in late 2018, and an initial crowd of 36 candidates included four former presidents and three former prime ministers. In the runoff, Ravalomanana faced off against Rajoelina, with Rajoelina winning (Rajaonarimampianina, finished third in the first round and thus did not make the runoff). Ravalomanana had promised to accept the result, but he contested it, and protests followed. Rajoelina’s coalition won a majority in the May 2019 parliamentary elections, but the opposition alleged fraud.

For the mayor of Antananarivo, Naina Andriantsitohaina, who recently stepped down as foreign minister, is Rajoelina’s candidate and will face off against opposition candidate Randriamasinoro Tahiry Ny Rina, secretary general of the capital’s urban community. Former president Marc Ravalomanana declined to enter the race, surprising many.

AFP: “Clashes broke out between police and protesters in Madagascar overnight after stone-throwing demonstrators stormed the construction site of a controversial urban expansion project, police said Friday [October 18]. Madagascar’s government has launched the construction of a shiny new urban complex meant to unclog the capital Antananarivo — a city wedged between the hills of the island-nation’s central highlands.”

RFI: “Madagascar: HVM, party of Rajaonarimampianina, makes its political comeback: Stayed five years in power in Madagascar, HVM, the party of the outgoing president Hery Rajaonarimampianina had almost disappeared after having been beaten at the first round of the presidential election in last November. This weekend, a statement posted on his Facebook page has announced his return.”

Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – Early 2020 (delayed from October 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 25.6 million

Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.

Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat. The political crisis has an ethnic dimension.

Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections, which are likely delayed following a July vote by the National Assembly to extend its term in office (the National Assembly’s second extension). The mandates were set to expire October 29, 2019 and have been extended for two months, so the elections that had been due in October most likely will not happen before 2020.

Mathieu Olivier, The Africa Report: “Cameroon: Paul Biya is back in charge after tactical manoeuvres – Paul Biya is playing a tactical masterclass. From the release of opposition leader Maurice Kamto and Anglophone militants, to the conclusions of the Great National Dialogue, the Cameroon president is hoping to avoid letting the federalism genie out of the bottle.”

Journal du Cameroun: “The leader of the Cameroon Renaissance Movement Maurice Kamto has vowed to continue with his post election protests following his release from jail.”

Cheryl Hendricks and Gabriel Ngah Kiven, The Conversation: “Why Cameroon must move beyond dialogue to solve its Anglophone crisis”

Guinea Legislative – 2019 and Presidential – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.9 million

Elections in Guinea routinely see significant delays and have historically been surrounded by ethnic tensions and violence. President Alpha Condé, a former opposition leader who came to power in 2010 following a transition from military to civilian rule, is prevented by the constitution from running for a third term in the presidential polls due in 2020. However, he wants to change the constitution to allow him to do so (which Russia is encouraging because Russian companies have mining interests in Guinea).

The terms of the current legislators expired in January 2019. Condé extended their mandates, and a new election date has not been set. The election commission has proposed holding them on December 28, 2019, but the opposition says the date is not realistic.

The Economist: “The Kremlin is encouraging Guinea’s president to ditch the constitution. The Guinean people aren’t thrilled.”

Adrian Blomfield, The Telegraph: “Deadly protests in Guinea as Russia calls for change of rules to keep despot in power: When police shot dead nine pro-democracy protesters in Guinea this week, Western embassies quietly shared their misgivings with the country’s president, Alpha Conde.”

Paul Stronski, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: “After a decades-long absence, Russia is once again appearing on the African continent. The Kremlin’s return to Africa, which has generated considerable media, governmental, and civil society attention, draws on a variety of tools and capabilities. Worrying patterns of stepped-up Russian activity are stirring concerns that a new wave of great-power competition in Africa is now upon us.”

Updated October 22, 2019

AP: “A court in Guinea’s capital has sentenced five opposition and civic leaders to jail terms for urging demonstrations last week to protest the president’s bid for a third term. The court on Tuesday sentenced Abdourahamane Sanoh, the leader of the National Front for the Defense of the Constitution, to one year in prison. Four other leaders were given six-month sentences.”

Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 108.4 million

In 1974, communist rebels deposed Ethiopia’s Emperor Haile Selassie and instituted the Derg (“Committee”), a Marxist military junta led by Mengistu Haile Mariam, which brought forth famines and a collapse of Ethiopia’s economy. It governed brutally, even genocidally. Following a civil war, the Derg was ousted in 1991 by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a coalition of ethnically-based rebel militias. The EPRDF took power and morphed into a coalition of four ethnically-based political parties: Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Amhara Democratic Party (ADP), Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), and Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM). In power, EPRDF instituted a controversial ethnically-based federalist system that has led to a current climate of tension and unrest.

EPRDF has held elections regularly, but aside from the 2005 polls, none were competitive or credible. In the last elections, in 2015, the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats. However, following three years of protests, the EPRDF chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister in 2018. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners, opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space, and holding free and fair elections in 2020. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles, including entrenched opposition to democracy within EPRDF. However, ongoing ethnic conflict could threaten Abiy’s reforms. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful.

Reuters: “PM Abiy says Ethiopia ready to hold elections in 2020: Ethiopia will face problems if it delays its general election beyond the scheduled date of May next year, the prime minister said on Tuesday, recalling past political violence.”

The Economist: “Did Ethiopia’s premier deserve the Nobel peace prize? Abiy Ahmed made peace with Eritrea but failed to stop ethnic cleansing.”

Ghana Presidential and Legislative – December 7, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 28.1 million

Ghana’s two main political parties, the center-right New Patriotic Party (NPP) and center-left National Democratic Congress (NDC), have alternated stints in power since Ghana began holding multiparty elections. Ghana is often cited as a success story for democratic transition, despite some lingering issues.

Although each party has bases of support in certain regions or ethnic groups, the parties define themselves by ideology and campaign on issues. In the 2016 presidential polls, NPP’s Nana Akufo-Addo defeated incumbent John Mahama from the NDC following a contentious campaign. Eleven parties competed in the parliamentary elections, but only the NPP and the NDC won seats, with the NPP winning a majority.

Business Insider by Pulse (Nigeria): “Ruling party in Ghana, NPP plans to hold presidential, parliamentary elections on April 25, 2020….The party said it will as well hold Parliamentary primaries in areas where it has sitting Members of Parliament (MP) on that same date.”

Lydia Essel-Mensah, Graphic (Ghana): “Ghana’s democracy will be deepened at both the local and central government levels if Ghanaians vote ‘Yes’ in the December 17, 2019 on the election of metropolitan, municipal and district chief executives (MMDCEs).”

Cristina Tardáguila, Poynter: “Rabiu Alhassan is the founder and managing editor of GhanaFact, the recently launched and only full-time fact-checking organization in his country.”

Uganda General – February 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Partly Free this year)
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 40.9 million

President Yoweri Museveni has held power since 1986 and looks likely to seek a sixth term. Musaveni is seen as an ally to Western governments on counterterrorism issues, despite concerns about human rights and civil liberties.

Musaveni’s National Resistance Movement (NRM), an authoritarian nationalist party, was originally a militia involved in the struggle to topple the government in 1986. In the last presidential election in 2016 (which was marred by an uneven playing field and government use of state resources and security services for political purposes), Kizza Besigye of the main opposition center-right Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) won 35.6 percent, coming in second. NRM holds 293 out of 426 seats in parliament, and FDC holds 36 (other opposition parties hold 21).

For the upcoming elections, 37-year-old pop star Bobi Wine has emerged as a leading opposition candidate. Wine campaigned with FDC’s candidate in a recent by-election.

Isaac Kaledzi, Africa Feeds: “President Museveni calls Bobi Wine ‘an enemy’ of Uganda”

Sharon Maombo, The Star (Kenya): “Bobi Wine hits back at Museveni over ‘enemy of Uganda’ remarks”

Stephen Kafeero, Daily Monitor (Uganda): “Is Museveni finally ‘finishing’ Opposition? President Museveni famously vowed that he would have no Opposition left by the time of the 2021 General Election. He said this two days after he was declared winner of the February 18, 2016 presidential election, and at the time, the President’s statement seemed to ring hollow. ”

South Sudan General – 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 10.2 million

South Sudan has been struggling since independence in 2011, and has been in an ethnically-based civil war since 2013, when President Salva Kiir and his former vice president, Riek Machar, fell out. A peace deal in 2015 did not end the conflict. In 2018, Kiir and Machar signed another peace agreement, but the implementation has been marred by delays.

The country has not held elections since independence. Kiir had been president of the semi-autonomous region while it was still part of Sudan, and he remained in office following independence. The legislature’s mandate expired in 2015 (it had been elected in 2010, before independence), and has been extended several times. The latest extension goes through May 2022. Kiir and Machar are discussing the formation of a unity government until elections can be held.

Sam Mednick, AP: “South Sudan opposition leader Riek Machar returned to the country Saturday to meet with President Salva Kiir less than a month before their deadline to form a unity government after a five-year civil war.”

Sudan General – 2022
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 43.1 million

In April, nonviolent demonstrations ousted Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir. In June 2019, around the 30th anniversary of Tiananmen Square, Sudanese troops massacred citizens protesting the regime. In August 2019, military officers and civilian leaders reached an agreement to share power until elections in 2022.

Samy Magdy, AP: “A Sudanese rebel group said Wednesday [October 16] it suspended peace talks with the transitional government, accusing the military of attacking and detaining people in a southern area under its control, an early blow to negotiations that had just begun with high expectations in South Sudan’s capital, Juba.”

Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, New York Times: “In Sudan, Women Showed the World How It’s Done”

Past Africa Elections
Mozambique Presidential, Legislative, and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 27.2 million

Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since then until an August 2019 peace accord). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.

Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth. Russia has ramped up its involvement in Mozambique’s energy and security sectors.

RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities. In the upcoming elections, in addition to voting for president, citizens will elect provincial governors directly for the first time – previously, they had been appointed by the president.

These elections were characterized by violence in the lead-up, including the murder of an election observer. A breakaway faction of RENAMO threatened violence if the elections proceeded. FRELIMO won, but RENAMO alleged fraud and insisted on a re-run (which is unlikely to happen).

Bill Corcoran, Irish Times: “Fraud claims surround Mozambique polls as partial results released: Frelimo party set for huge victory as rival Renamo among those alleging vote trickery”

Al Jazeera: “Mozambique opposition rejects election results: Renamo calls for rerun of Tuesday’s vote accusing government of using violence and intimidation on election day.”

Manuel Mucari, Reuters: “EU criticizes ‘unlevel playing field’ in Mozambique election”

Malcolm Webb, Al Jazeera (video): “Murder of Mozambique election observer under spotlight: Killing by police officers occurred amid widespread reports of vote irregularities and violence at polling stations.”

Democratic Republic of the Congo General – December 30, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 85.3 million

The DRC’s December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu. When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi. The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country, but both have returned. The opposition holds that Kabila is still in control.

The DRC is scheduled to hold long-overdue local elections on September 22, 2019, elections that have been postponed numerous times since 2006. The Independent National Election Commission (CENI) has not yet begun preparations, making another delay almost certain.

Romain Gras, The Africa Report: “DRC: opposition at loggerheads over parliamentary posts. The opposition groups of Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba have called on their leaders to resolve an internal dispute.”

Olivia Acland and Adrian Blomfield, The Telegraph: “Mystery as plane carrying Russian arms smugglers crashes in Congo”

The Gambia Presidential – December 1, 2016  and Legislative – April 6, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 2.1 million

In December 2016, The Gambia began a remarkable transition to democracy. Citizens removed dictator Yahya Jammeh – who had come to power in a coup and ruled for 22 years – peacefully, via the ballot box, in a surprising result. Opposition candidate Adama Barrow won the presidency with the backing of a coalition of seven opposition parties. The country then began the process of establishing democracy and recovering from Jammeh’s brutal dictatorship.

The Gambia is actually the country’s name (unlike, for example, Ukraine or Sudan, to which many people attach the definite article), after the River Gambia, which is a source of national pride.

APA: “Many Gambians are wary that events in Guinea will be a spur for a similar protest action spearheaded by a movement sworn to unseat President Adama Barrow in December when his presidency would clock three years. A group of civil society activists calling themselves the Three Years Jotna Movement have vowed to take to the streets in a bid to force President Barrow to respect his 2016 election campaign.”

AFP: “Gambia’s ex-number two admits responsibility in opposition killings”

Sebastian Modak, New York Times: “The ‘Wrong Time’ to Be in Gambia? Maybe Not”

South Africa General – May 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 55.4 million

Steven Friedman, Quartz: “Liberalism in South Africa isn’t only for white people—or black people who ‘want to be white.’”

The Year Ahead: Africa Elections

The Year Ahead: Africa Elections
Guinea legislative (overdue – mandates of current legislators expired January 13 – date not set for new elections); Chad legislative (originally due in 2015 but have been delayed several times – unclear when they will. actually happen); Cameroon parliamentary (due October but delayed – new date not set); Mozambique presidential, legislative, provincial (October 15); Botswana parliamentary (October 23); Somalia, Somaliland congressional and local (November 1, 2019 – postponed, new date not set); Malawi parliamentary by-elections (November 5); Mauritius parliamentary (November 7); Kenya parliamentary by-election in Kibra (November 7); Nigeria Kogi and Bayelsa state, plus Niger State local government (November 16); Guinea-Bissau presidential (November 24); Namibia presidential and legislative (November 27); Madagascar local (November 27); Guinea-Bissau presidential runoff (December 8); Cameroon parliamentary and local (early 2020 – postponed from October 2019); Comoros parliamentary (January); Togo presidential (April); Ethiopia parliamentary (May); Burundi presidential and legislative (May 20);  Mali Parliamentary (due June but postponed indefinitely)


Former President Ian Khama’s decision to back Botswana’s opposition coalition has led to the most competitive elections since the country’s independence. Photo credit: Flickr/Government of South Africa (CC BY-ND 2.0)

 

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