Americas This Week – June 22, 2019

June 22, 2019

 

Each day, 21votes gathers election and political news from a different region of the world. We explore the Americas on Saturdays. Click the map pins.

Guatemala General, Second Round - August 11, 2019 (first round was June 16)

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

These elections are taking place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.

In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.

Naomi Roht-Arriaza, The Conversation: “The two winners in Guatemala’s June 16 presidential vote – former first lady Sandra Torres and former prison director Alejandro Giammattei – will face off in a second round of voting in August. But already one election loser is clear: Guatemala in its decade-long fight to root out massive government corruption.”

Jack Herrera, Pacific Standard: “The national election in Guatemala likely marked the bitter end to what was once the most hopeful anti-corruption movement in the hemisphere.”

Al-Jazeera: “Guatemala to hold election recount over fraud allegations. The recount would include municipal and congressional polls held in tandem with the presidential vote, official says.”

Amy Goodman, Democracy Now!: “Thelma Aldana, Barred from Guatemala Presidential Election, Says Country Is ‘Captured’ by Corruption”

Elizabeth Gonzalez, Americas Society/Council of the Americas: “Corruption was also a common theme in the election of the 160-member Congress, where 20 percent of deputies faced corruption charges. So far Torres’ party has garned the most votes there as well. Mayoralities and legislative seats may also proceed to the August 11 runoff.”

Bolivia General - October 20, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians voted in a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates.

Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.

Jose Enrique Arrioja, Bloomberg: “Carlos Mesa Gisbert, a former president of Bolivia, says voters should choose him over President Evo Morales in elections this October because he has better policies and because, after 13 years in power, Morales is a near-dictator of the left who could turn the country into another Venezuela.”

“In power since 2006, Morales, 59, is South America´s longest-serving leader. The constitution bars him from another term and he lost a referendum two years ago giving him permission to run again.”

Canada General - October 21, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm

The election will be competitive, and some polls have shown that the Conservatives would beat incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals if the election were held today. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year.

Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.

Amanda Connolly, Global News: “Only 32% of Canadians think Trudeau deserves re-election as Tories hold lead: Ipsos poll”

Philippe J. Fournier, Maclean’s: ”Although there are some major disagreements between these polls [eight polls that came out this month], let us begin with what they have in common: The Conservatives are still holding onto their lead and should be considered the favourite as we enter the summer.”

Darren Major, CBC: “Elections Canada dropping plan to use ‘influencers’ to promote youth voter registration. Some influencers could be seen as biased due to past activities, chief electoral officer says”

Argentina Presidential and Legislative - October 27, 2019 and Provincial - Throughout the year

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

On the presidential front: Incumbent Maucirio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.

Luisa Horowitz, Americas Society/Council of the Americas: “Mapping Argentina’s 2019 Gubernatorial Elections”

Jorjelina Do Rosario, Bloomberg: “Argentine politics don’t take weekends off, and this Saturday will be key in the national calendar. Political parties have until 11:59pm on June 22 to submit their candidate lists for the August primaries, also known as PASO. With just one presidential ticket for each coalition, the primaries will work as a big poll, providing clues of what may happen in the October elections.”

Colombia Local - October 27, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections.

Richard Emblin, City Paper Bogotá: “As Bogotá heads towards an important mayoral election in October (by August we’ll know the names of the official candidates), there are many issues at stake, from security to mobility and air quality. But one also needs to be addressed: how to recover our public spaces from the levels of disorder, decay and intimidation.”

Haiti Local and Partial Parliamentary (one third of the Senate and the entire lower house) - Due October 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

Haiti is in a political crisis. Political chaos followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. The 2016 do-over only had 18 percent turnout. Violent protesters have demanded the president’s ouster. The 2015-2016 parliamentary elections were also marred by significant fraud. The country is currently without a government as opposition lawmakers have blocked multiple attempts to ratify a new prime minister.

Sandra Lemaire and Matias Vilme, Voice of America: “OAS Delegation Visits Haiti Amid Demands for President’s Ouster”

James M. Roberts and Grant Steele, Heritage Foundation’s Daily Signal: “Corruption and Violence Are Crippling Haiti”

Guyana Snap Elections – November 2019 (tentative)

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost a no-confidence motion, and snap elections were supposed to happen within three months. Litigation has delayed the date for new polls – the government is challenging the no-confidence motion in court. This political turmoil is happening in the context of potentially seismic economic changes for Guyana due to the discovery of oil. Guyana could soon go from South America’s second-poorest country to a petrostate as rich as Qatar, raising the political stakes.

Both parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese. 

Reuters: “A regional court [Trinidad-based Caribbean Court of Justice] on Tuesday [June 18] upheld the Guyanese Parliament’s December no-confidence vote in the government, meaning the South American country will face new elections just as its nascent oil industry appears set to transform the economy.”

Denis Chabrol, Demerara Waves: “Lawyers for Opposition Leader, Bharrat Jagdeo and allied parties are proposing that the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) issue orders to allow for specific timeframes for appointing a new Chairman of the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM), and the holding of general elections within 90 days with the existing voters’ list.”

Upcoming Elections
Guatemala General, Second Round – August 11, 2019 (first round was June 16)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

These elections are taking place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.

In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.

Naomi Roht-Arriaza, The Conversation: “The two winners in Guatemala’s June 16 presidential vote – former first lady Sandra Torres and former prison director Alejandro Giammattei – will face off in a second round of voting in August. But already one election loser is clear: Guatemala in its decade-long fight to root out massive government corruption.”

Jack Herrera, Pacific Standard: “The national election in Guatemala likely marked the bitter end to what was once the most hopeful anti-corruption movement in the hemisphere.”

Al-Jazeera: “Guatemala to hold election recount over fraud allegations. The recount would include municipal and congressional polls held in tandem with the presidential vote, official says.”

Amy Goodman, Democracy Now!: “Thelma Aldana, Barred from Guatemala Presidential Election, Says Country Is ‘Captured’ by Corruption”

Elizabeth Gonzalez, Americas Society/Council of the Americas: “Corruption was also a common theme in the election of the 160-member Congress, where 20 percent of deputies faced corruption charges. So far Torres’ party has garned the most votes there as well. Mayoralities and legislative seats may also proceed to the August 11 runoff.”

Bolivia General – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians voted in a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates.

Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.

Jose Enrique Arrioja, Bloomberg: “Carlos Mesa Gisbert, a former president of Bolivia, says voters should choose him over President Evo Morales in elections this October because he has better policies and because, after 13 years in power, Morales is a near-dictator of the left who could turn the country into another Venezuela.”

“In power since 2006, Morales, 59, is South America´s longest-serving leader. The constitution bars him from another term and he lost a referendum two years ago giving him permission to run again.”

Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm

The election will be competitive, and some polls have shown that the Conservatives would beat incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals if the election were held today. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year.

Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.

Amanda Connolly, Global News: “Only 32% of Canadians think Trudeau deserves re-election as Tories hold lead: Ipsos poll”

Philippe J. Fournier, Maclean’s: ”Although there are some major disagreements between these polls [eight polls that came out this month], let us begin with what they have in common: The Conservatives are still holding onto their lead and should be considered the favourite as we enter the summer.”

Darren Major, CBC: “Elections Canada dropping plan to use ‘influencers’ to promote youth voter registration. Some influencers could be seen as biased due to past activities, chief electoral officer says”

Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 and Provincial – Throughout the year
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

On the presidential front: Incumbent Maucirio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.

Luisa Horowitz, Americas Society/Council of the Americas: “Mapping Argentina’s 2019 Gubernatorial Elections”

Jorjelina Do Rosario, Bloomberg: “Argentine politics don’t take weekends off, and this Saturday will be key in the national calendar. Political parties have until 11:59pm on June 22 to submit their candidate lists for the August primaries, also known as PASO. With just one presidential ticket for each coalition, the primaries will work as a big poll, providing clues of what may happen in the October elections.”

Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections.

Richard Emblin, City Paper Bogotá: “As Bogotá heads towards an important mayoral election in October (by August we’ll know the names of the official candidates), there are many issues at stake, from security to mobility and air quality. But one also needs to be addressed: how to recover our public spaces from the levels of disorder, decay and intimidation.”

Haiti Local and Partial Parliamentary (one third of the Senate and the entire lower house) – Due October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

Haiti is in a political crisis. Political chaos followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. The 2016 do-over only had 18 percent turnout. Violent protesters have demanded the president’s ouster. The 2015-2016 parliamentary elections were also marred by significant fraud. The country is currently without a government as opposition lawmakers have blocked multiple attempts to ratify a new prime minister.

Sandra Lemaire and Matias Vilme, Voice of America: “OAS Delegation Visits Haiti Amid Demands for President’s Ouster”

James M. Roberts and Grant Steele, Heritage Foundation’s Daily Signal: “Corruption and Violence Are Crippling Haiti”

Guyana Snap Elections – November 2019 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost a no-confidence motion, and snap elections were supposed to happen within three months. Litigation has delayed the date for new polls – the government is challenging the no-confidence motion in court. This political turmoil is happening in the context of potentially seismic economic changes for Guyana due to the discovery of oil. Guyana could soon go from South America’s second-poorest country to a petrostate as rich as Qatar, raising the political stakes.

Both parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese. 

Reuters: “A regional court [Trinidad-based Caribbean Court of Justice] on Tuesday [June 18] upheld the Guyanese Parliament’s December no-confidence vote in the government, meaning the South American country will face new elections just as its nascent oil industry appears set to transform the economy.”

Denis Chabrol, Demerara Waves: “Lawyers for Opposition Leader, Bharrat Jagdeo and allied parties are proposing that the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) issue orders to allow for specific timeframes for appointing a new Chairman of the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM), and the holding of general elections within 90 days with the existing voters’ list.”

The Year Ahead: Americas Guatemala general second round (August 18); Bolivia presidential and legislative (October); Canada, Prince Edward Island province general and Northwest Territories parliamentary (on or before October 7 – exact date not set yet); Canada, Labrador and Newfoundland provincial (October 8); Bolivia presidential and legislative (October 20); Canada general (on or before October 21 – exact date not set yet); Argentina presidential and legislative (October 27); Uruguay presidential and legislative (October 27); Colombia local (October 27); Haiti parliamentary (October 27); Guyana snap parliamentary (November); Trinidad and Tobago local (November) Dominica legislative (December); St. Kitts and Nevis legislative (February)


Former first lady Sandra Torres heads to a presidential runoff in Guatemala. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Anonimoo911

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