Upcoming Elections
Japan Legislative (half of upper house) – July 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
In July, 124 out of the 245 seats in the House of Councillors, the upper house of the bicameral National Diet, are up for election. The seats up were last voted on in 2013. Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party and coalition partner Komeito, a Buddhist religious party, currently hold 81 seats. LDP can lose 25 seats in this election and still maintain its majority. Abe’s goal is to secure a two-thirds majority in both houses in order to be able to revise the constitution. The LDP-Komeito coalition currently has a constitutional majority in the lower house, but not the upper house. There had been speculation that Abe would also call a snap election to the lower house to be held concurrently (otherwise, lower house elections are not due until 2021), but that scenario looks increasingly unlikely. Japan held nationwide local elections in April, and is also holding provincial gubernatorial elections throughout the year.
Isabel Reynolds, Bloomberg: “Japan’s pension system has been a worry for decades and fresh concern erupted at a tenuous time for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, just weeks before national elections for parliament’s upper house.”
Linda Sieg, Reuters: “Prospects are fading for a snap election for parliament’s lower house in tandem with a summer upper house poll, the leader of Japan’s second-biggest opposition party said on Thursday.”
Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24.
Kimmy Chung and Tony Cheung, South China Morning Post: “Suspension of Hong Kong extradition bill is embarrassing to pro-establishment allies and could cost them at election time, camp insiders reveal. The camp, which supported the legislation, faces voters in District Council elections in November this year and Legco elections in September 2020”
Yuen Chan, Al-Jazeera: “What is next for Hong Kong’s protest movement? The pro-democracy movement has scored another political victory, but can it continue resisting China’s encroachment?”
Chris Cheng, Hong Kong Free Press: “Court hears bid by Hong Kong pro-democracy activist Agnes Chow to overthrow election ban”
Jennifer Creery, Hong Kong Free Press: “Demosistō leader Joshua Wong visited protesters outside the Hong Kong legislature on Monday in a show of solidarity, hours after being released from prison.“
Verna Yu, The Guardian: “Carrie Lam’s failures have radicalised new generation, says freed activist. Hong Kong’s chief executive caused the city’s protests by ignoring public opinion, says Joshua Wong”
Sri Lanka Presidential – December 7, 2019 (followed by parliamentary elections in 2020)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
In 2018, Sri Lanka went through a two-month political crisis in which President Maithripala Sirisena tried to dissolve parliament and remove Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe from office and replace him with former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was president from 2005 to 2015. Ultimately, Wickremesinghe was reinstated, but the crisis has deep roots and tensions remain high in Sri Lankan politics. The two major parties are Sirisena’s center-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Wickremesinghe’s center-right United National Party. Rajapaksa left the SLPF in 2018 and now leads the populist Sri Lanka People’s Front/Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP).
In the last presidential elections, Rajapaksa surprised everyone by losing to Sirisena, who embarked on a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Rajapaksa had built up. Sirisena is eligible to run for a second term and could run again. Other potential candidates include Wickremesinghe and one of Rajapaksa’s siblings (Rajapaksa is not eligible to run for president again due to term limits adopted during Sirisena’s presidency). Rajapaksa’s SLPP did well in local elections last year. Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice, and the upcoming elections could well determine whether it strengthens itself or deteriorates.
AFP: “Sri Lanka President seeks to roll back his political reforms. Sri Lanka President Maithripala Sirisena says the 19th amendment to the constitution ‘has triggered instability’ and led to a power struggle.”
DW: “Sri Lanka extends state of emergency after Easter bombings. Sri Lanka has been under a state of emergency since a string of bombings at three hotels and three churches killed more than 250 people in mid-April. Authorities say that anti-terrorism operations are still underway.”
Taiwan Presidential and Legislative – January 11, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Taiwan has a robust democracy with a history of peaceful transfers of power following credible elections. The two main parties are President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT was founded by Sun Yat-sen, often called the father of modern China, and ruled mainland China for twenty years, until the Communists won the civil war and the KMT went into exile in Taiwan. The KMT favors closer ties to the mainland, while the DPP supports Taiwan’s independence (although in power, Tsai has been careful not to provoke Beijing too much in that regard).
Tsai won the DPP presidential primary, and the KMT holds its own primary next month. Candidates include Terry Guo, Taiwan’s richest man, and Han Kuo-yu, the populist mayor of Kaohsiung, a major port city in the south. Han is seen as Beijing’s top choice for the presidency. The DPP currently controls the Legislative Yuan. The upcoming elections will be closely-fought and will focus on relations with China. China will likely attempt to interfere with the process, like they did during last year’s local elections, which swept the KMT back into many local offices that they had lost during the 2014 local elections. However, the ongoing protests in Hong Kong are likely to benefit Tsai and the DPP as Taiwanese grow concerned about Beijing’s attempts to subvert democracy.
Kensaku Ihara, Nikkei Asian Review: “Taiwan candidates quickly shun China after Hong Kong protests. Even pro-Beijing hopefuls reject ‘One country, two systems’”
Derek Grossman, Foreign Policy: “One Country, Two Systems, Lots of Problems. Beijing’s soft sell to Taiwan and Hong Kong is falling apart.”
Lawrence Chung, South China Morning Post: “Tsai Ing-wen regains some ground but youth vote may hold the key to Taiwan’s election”
Burma Parliamentary – Expected late 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Kyaw Phyo Tha, The Irrawaddy: “Myanmar’s leading Buddhist nationalist group has urged voters to shun Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) in next year’s general election, accusing the party of damaging the ‘country, race and religion.’”
Kyaw Zwa Moe, The Irrawaddy: “Federalism, Democracy and the 2020 Elections”
Past Elections
Bangladesh Upazila (Local) Elections – June 18, 2019
Daily Star: “Some stray incidents of violence, irregularities, and low turnout marked the fifth and final phase of the upazila polls across the country yesterday.”
All India Radio: “In Bangladesh, the fifth and final round of Upzila elections concluded yesterday. The first phase of voting for Upzilas was held in March. Voting was held for 23 upzilas on Tuesday. Out of 489 Upzilas, a total of 486 upazilas went for polls over four rounds of voting earlier while in 3 Upazillas candidates were elected unopposed.”
Indonesia General – April 17, 2019
April’s presidential election pitted incumbent Joko Widodo, called Jokowi, viewed as a modernizer, against challener Prabowo Subianto, a former general. Jokowi won, but Prabowo disputed the results, alleging fraud, and his supporters staged violent protests.
James Massola and Karuni Rompies, Sydney Morning Herald: “Election body rejects Prabowo’s fraud claims”
Kanupriya Kapoor, Reuters: “After bruising election, Indonesia to vet public servants to identify Islamists”
Asia This Week – June 21, 2019
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Last Updated: June 28, 2019 by 21votes
June 21, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election and political news from a different region of the world. We explore Asia and the Pacific on Fridays. Click the map pins.
Japan Legislative (half of upper house) - July 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
In July, 124 out of the 245 seats in the House of Councillors, the upper house of the bicameral National Diet, are up for election. The seats up were last voted on in 2013. Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party and coalition partner Komeito, a Buddhist religious party, currently hold 81 seats. LDP can lose 25 seats in this election and still maintain its majority. Abe’s goal is to secure a two-thirds majority in both houses in order to be able to revise the constitution. The LDP-Komeito coalition currently has a constitutional majority in the lower house, but not the upper house. There had been speculation that Abe would also call a snap election to the lower house to be held concurrently (otherwise, lower house elections are not due until 2021), but that scenario looks increasingly unlikely. Japan held nationwide local elections in April, and is also holding provincial gubernatorial elections throughout the year.
Isabel Reynolds, Bloomberg: “Japan’s pension system has been a worry for decades and fresh concern erupted at a tenuous time for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, just weeks before national elections for parliament’s upper house.”
Linda Sieg, Reuters: “Prospects are fading for a snap election for parliament’s lower house in tandem with a summer upper house poll, the leader of Japan’s second-biggest opposition party said on Thursday.”
Hong Kong District Councils - November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council - September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24.
Kimmy Chung and Tony Cheung, South China Morning Post: “Suspension of Hong Kong extradition bill is embarrassing to pro-establishment allies and could cost them at election time, camp insiders reveal. The camp, which supported the legislation, faces voters in District Council elections in November this year and Legco elections in September 2020”
Yuen Chan, Al-Jazeera: “What is next for Hong Kong’s protest movement? The pro-democracy movement has scored another political victory, but can it continue resisting China’s encroachment?”
Chris Cheng, Hong Kong Free Press: “Court hears bid by Hong Kong pro-democracy activist Agnes Chow to overthrow election ban”
Jennifer Creery, Hong Kong Free Press: “Demosistō leader Joshua Wong visited protesters outside the Hong Kong legislature on Monday in a show of solidarity, hours after being released from prison.“
Verna Yu, The Guardian: “Carrie Lam’s failures have radicalised new generation, says freed activist. Hong Kong’s chief executive caused the city’s protests by ignoring public opinion, says Joshua Wong”
Sri Lanka Presidential - December 7, 2019 (followed by parliamentary elections in 2020)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
In 2018, Sri Lanka went through a two-month political crisis in which President Maithripala Sirisena tried to dissolve parliament and remove Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe from office and replace him with former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was president from 2005 to 2015. Ultimately, Wickremesinghe was reinstated, but the crisis has deep roots and tensions remain high in Sri Lankan politics. The two major parties are Sirisena’s center-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Wickremesinghe’s center-right United National Party. Rajapaksa left the SLPF in 2018 and now leads the populist Sri Lanka People’s Front/Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP).
In the last presidential elections, Rajapaksa surprised everyone by losing to Sirisena, who embarked on a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Rajapaksa had built up. Sirisena is eligible to run for a second term and could run again. Other potential candidates include Wickremesinghe and one of Rajapaksa’s siblings (Rajapaksa is not eligible to run for president again due to term limits adopted during Sirisena’s presidency). Rajapaksa’s SLPP did well in local elections last year. Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice, and the upcoming elections could well determine whether it strengthens itself or deteriorates.
AFP: “Sri Lanka President seeks to roll back his political reforms. Sri Lanka President Maithripala Sirisena says the 19th amendment to the constitution ‘has triggered instability’ and led to a power struggle.”
DW: “Sri Lanka extends state of emergency after Easter bombings. Sri Lanka has been under a state of emergency since a string of bombings at three hotels and three churches killed more than 250 people in mid-April. Authorities say that anti-terrorism operations are still underway.”
Taiwan Presidential and Legislative - January 11, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Taiwan has a robust democracy with a history of peaceful transfers of power following credible elections. The two main parties are President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT was founded by Sun Yat-sen, often called the father of modern China, and ruled mainland China for twenty years, until the Communists won the civil war and the KMT went into exile in Taiwan. The KMT favors closer ties to the mainland, while the DPP supports Taiwan’s independence (although in power, Tsai has been careful not to provoke Beijing too much in that regard).
Tsai won the DPP presidential primary, and the KMT holds its own primary next month. Candidates include Terry Guo, Taiwan’s richest man, and Han Kuo-yu, the populist mayor of Kaohsiung, a major port city in the south. Han is seen as Beijing’s top choice for the presidency. The DPP currently controls the Legislative Yuan. The upcoming elections will be closely-fought and will focus on relations with China. China will likely attempt to interfere with the process, like they did during last year’s local elections, which swept the KMT back into many local offices that they had lost during the 2014 local elections. However, the ongoing protests in Hong Kong are likely to benefit Tsai and the DPP as Taiwanese grow concerned about Beijing’s attempts to subvert democracy.
Kensaku Ihara, Nikkei Asian Review: “Taiwan candidates quickly shun China after Hong Kong protests. Even pro-Beijing hopefuls reject ‘One country, two systems’”
Derek Grossman, Foreign Policy: “One Country, Two Systems, Lots of Problems. Beijing’s soft sell to Taiwan and Hong Kong is falling apart.”
Lawrence Chung, South China Morning Post: “Tsai Ing-wen regains some ground but youth vote may hold the key to Taiwan’s election”
Burma Parliamentary - Expected late 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Kyaw Phyo Tha, The Irrawaddy: “Myanmar’s leading Buddhist nationalist group has urged voters to shun Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) in next year’s general election, accusing the party of damaging the ‘country, race and religion.’”
Kyaw Zwa Moe, The Irrawaddy: “Federalism, Democracy and the 2020 Elections”
Bangladesh Upazila (Local) Elections - June 18, 2019
Daily Star: “Some stray incidents of violence, irregularities, and low turnout marked the fifth and final phase of the upazila polls across the country yesterday.”
All India Radio: “In Bangladesh, the fifth and final round of Upzila elections concluded yesterday. The first phase of voting for Upzilas was held in March. Voting was held for 23 upzilas on Tuesday. Out of 489 Upzilas, a total of 486 upazilas went for polls over four rounds of voting earlier while in 3 Upazillas candidates were elected unopposed.”
Indonesia General - April 17, 2019
April’s presidential election pitted incumbent Joko Widodo, called Jokowi, viewed as a modernizer, against challener Prabowo Subianto, a former general. Jokowi won, but Prabowo disputed the results, alleging fraud, and his supporters staged violent protests.
James Massola and Karuni Rompies, Sydney Morning Herald: “Election body rejects Prabowo’s fraud claims”
Kanupriya Kapoor, Reuters: “After bruising election, Indonesia to vet public servants to identify Islamists”
Upcoming Elections
Japan Legislative (half of upper house) – July 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
In July, 124 out of the 245 seats in the House of Councillors, the upper house of the bicameral National Diet, are up for election. The seats up were last voted on in 2013. Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party and coalition partner Komeito, a Buddhist religious party, currently hold 81 seats. LDP can lose 25 seats in this election and still maintain its majority. Abe’s goal is to secure a two-thirds majority in both houses in order to be able to revise the constitution. The LDP-Komeito coalition currently has a constitutional majority in the lower house, but not the upper house. There had been speculation that Abe would also call a snap election to the lower house to be held concurrently (otherwise, lower house elections are not due until 2021), but that scenario looks increasingly unlikely. Japan held nationwide local elections in April, and is also holding provincial gubernatorial elections throughout the year.
Isabel Reynolds, Bloomberg: “Japan’s pension system has been a worry for decades and fresh concern erupted at a tenuous time for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, just weeks before national elections for parliament’s upper house.”
Linda Sieg, Reuters: “Prospects are fading for a snap election for parliament’s lower house in tandem with a summer upper house poll, the leader of Japan’s second-biggest opposition party said on Thursday.”
Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24.
Kimmy Chung and Tony Cheung, South China Morning Post: “Suspension of Hong Kong extradition bill is embarrassing to pro-establishment allies and could cost them at election time, camp insiders reveal. The camp, which supported the legislation, faces voters in District Council elections in November this year and Legco elections in September 2020”
Yuen Chan, Al-Jazeera: “What is next for Hong Kong’s protest movement? The pro-democracy movement has scored another political victory, but can it continue resisting China’s encroachment?”
Chris Cheng, Hong Kong Free Press: “Court hears bid by Hong Kong pro-democracy activist Agnes Chow to overthrow election ban”
Jennifer Creery, Hong Kong Free Press: “Demosistō leader Joshua Wong visited protesters outside the Hong Kong legislature on Monday in a show of solidarity, hours after being released from prison.“
Verna Yu, The Guardian: “Carrie Lam’s failures have radicalised new generation, says freed activist. Hong Kong’s chief executive caused the city’s protests by ignoring public opinion, says Joshua Wong”
Sri Lanka Presidential – December 7, 2019 (followed by parliamentary elections in 2020)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
In 2018, Sri Lanka went through a two-month political crisis in which President Maithripala Sirisena tried to dissolve parliament and remove Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe from office and replace him with former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was president from 2005 to 2015. Ultimately, Wickremesinghe was reinstated, but the crisis has deep roots and tensions remain high in Sri Lankan politics. The two major parties are Sirisena’s center-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Wickremesinghe’s center-right United National Party. Rajapaksa left the SLPF in 2018 and now leads the populist Sri Lanka People’s Front/Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP).
In the last presidential elections, Rajapaksa surprised everyone by losing to Sirisena, who embarked on a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Rajapaksa had built up. Sirisena is eligible to run for a second term and could run again. Other potential candidates include Wickremesinghe and one of Rajapaksa’s siblings (Rajapaksa is not eligible to run for president again due to term limits adopted during Sirisena’s presidency). Rajapaksa’s SLPP did well in local elections last year. Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice, and the upcoming elections could well determine whether it strengthens itself or deteriorates.
AFP: “Sri Lanka President seeks to roll back his political reforms. Sri Lanka President Maithripala Sirisena says the 19th amendment to the constitution ‘has triggered instability’ and led to a power struggle.”
DW: “Sri Lanka extends state of emergency after Easter bombings. Sri Lanka has been under a state of emergency since a string of bombings at three hotels and three churches killed more than 250 people in mid-April. Authorities say that anti-terrorism operations are still underway.”
Taiwan Presidential and Legislative – January 11, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Taiwan has a robust democracy with a history of peaceful transfers of power following credible elections. The two main parties are President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT was founded by Sun Yat-sen, often called the father of modern China, and ruled mainland China for twenty years, until the Communists won the civil war and the KMT went into exile in Taiwan. The KMT favors closer ties to the mainland, while the DPP supports Taiwan’s independence (although in power, Tsai has been careful not to provoke Beijing too much in that regard).
Tsai won the DPP presidential primary, and the KMT holds its own primary next month. Candidates include Terry Guo, Taiwan’s richest man, and Han Kuo-yu, the populist mayor of Kaohsiung, a major port city in the south. Han is seen as Beijing’s top choice for the presidency. The DPP currently controls the Legislative Yuan. The upcoming elections will be closely-fought and will focus on relations with China. China will likely attempt to interfere with the process, like they did during last year’s local elections, which swept the KMT back into many local offices that they had lost during the 2014 local elections. However, the ongoing protests in Hong Kong are likely to benefit Tsai and the DPP as Taiwanese grow concerned about Beijing’s attempts to subvert democracy.
Kensaku Ihara, Nikkei Asian Review: “Taiwan candidates quickly shun China after Hong Kong protests. Even pro-Beijing hopefuls reject ‘One country, two systems’”
Derek Grossman, Foreign Policy: “One Country, Two Systems, Lots of Problems. Beijing’s soft sell to Taiwan and Hong Kong is falling apart.”
Lawrence Chung, South China Morning Post: “Tsai Ing-wen regains some ground but youth vote may hold the key to Taiwan’s election”
Burma Parliamentary – Expected late 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Kyaw Phyo Tha, The Irrawaddy: “Myanmar’s leading Buddhist nationalist group has urged voters to shun Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) in next year’s general election, accusing the party of damaging the ‘country, race and religion.’”
Kyaw Zwa Moe, The Irrawaddy: “Federalism, Democracy and the 2020 Elections”
Past Elections
Bangladesh Upazila (Local) Elections – June 18, 2019
Daily Star: “Some stray incidents of violence, irregularities, and low turnout marked the fifth and final phase of the upazila polls across the country yesterday.”
All India Radio: “In Bangladesh, the fifth and final round of Upzila elections concluded yesterday. The first phase of voting for Upzilas was held in March. Voting was held for 23 upzilas on Tuesday. Out of 489 Upzilas, a total of 486 upazilas went for polls over four rounds of voting earlier while in 3 Upazillas candidates were elected unopposed.”
Indonesia General – April 17, 2019
April’s presidential election pitted incumbent Joko Widodo, called Jokowi, viewed as a modernizer, against challener Prabowo Subianto, a former general. Jokowi won, but Prabowo disputed the results, alleging fraud, and his supporters staged violent protests.
James Massola and Karuni Rompies, Sydney Morning Herald: “Election body rejects Prabowo’s fraud claims”
Kanupriya Kapoor, Reuters: “After bruising election, Indonesia to vet public servants to identify Islamists”
The Year Ahead: Asia
Japan, provincial elections throughout the year; Japan legislative – half of upper house (July – snap lower house elections possible); Nauru legislative (July); Papua New Guinea local (July 20-25); India, Maharashtra state (September); Tuvalu parliamentary (September); New Zealand local (October 12); Hong Kong local (November); Marshall Islands legislative (November); Kiribati legislative (December); Sri Lanka presidential (December 7); Taiwan presidential and legislative (January 11); Kiribati presidential (March); South Korea parliamentary (April 15); Niue parliamentary (May); Mongolia parliamentary (June).
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Category: This Week Tags: Bangladesh, Burma, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Sri Lanka, Taiwan