Africa This Week – June 24, 2019

June 24, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election and political news from a different region of the world. We explore Africa on Mondays. Click the map pins.

Democratic Republic of the Congo Local - September 22, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

In addition to the political turmoil, the DRC faces the world’s second-deadliestoutbreak of Ebola, with almost 1,500 deaths.

AFP: “Police in the Democratic Republic of Congo fired tear gas at protesters against a visit Sunday by opposition leader Jean-Pierre Bemba who made a low-key return home, flying in from Brussels on a private jet.”

Botswana Parliamentary - October 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Botswana, the world’s second-largest producer of diamonds, is a stable democracy with regular free, fair, credible elections. In 2018, President Ian Khama stepped down exactly 10 years after his inauguration, in keeping with the constitutional limit of two terms in office (his predecessor had done the same thing). Mokgweetsi Masisi, the former vice president, is filling the role of the presidency until after the elections, when the National Assembly will choose a new president. Khama’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – founded by his father, Seretse Khama, protagonist of the 2017 film A United Kingdom – has dominated politics since independence in 1966, but soon after leaving office, Khama left the BDP to form a new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front. The split could open up debate on actual policy, or it could devolve into a personal power struggle.

The National Assembly will elect a new president following the parliamentary elections.

African Arguments: “Who wins when Bostwana’s presidents feud?”

Michelle Gavin, Council on Foreign Relations: “Personal Rivalries Overshadow Botswana’s Democracy”

Mozambique Legislative and Provincial - October 15, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since, but currently have a ceasefire). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.

RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities.

Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgencyin the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth.

Lusa News Agency: “Mozambique’s National Election Commission (CNE) has received candidacy proposals from 39 parties and three coalitions for the legislative and provincial elections on 15 October, it said on Tuesday. The figures are part of the CNE’s balance sheet on the submission of candidacy proposals, which ended on Monday.”

Guinea-Bissau Presidential - November 24, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

In March 2019, Guinea-Bissau finally held long-delayed legislative elections. The ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) won 47 out of 102 seats, but made deals with three smaller parties to form a coalition with 54 seats. Prone to coups (most recently in 2012), no elected leader has served a full term since independence from Portugal. The country remains in a political crisis, with President José Mário Vaz (known as Jomav) in a feud with his own party (PAIGC). Vaz plans to run for re-election. Sometimes dubbed “the world’s first narco-state,” it risks once again becoming a hub for drug traffickers. 

AFP: “Guinea Bissau will hold presidential elections on November 24 this year, according to a decree announced by president Jose Mario Vaz on Tuesday. In the upcoming elections, 49 political parties are legally registered in the country, according to the decree.”

DW: “Guinea-Bissau president names new prime minister ‘in name of peace’ Aristides Gomes has been named as Guinea-Bissau’s new prime minister, ending a long political deadlock. President Jose Mario Vaz had refused to name his estranged deputy to the post.”

Ethiopia Parliamentary - Due May 2020

Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic

Following three years of protests, Ethiopia’s ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners and opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful.

In the 2015 elections, the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats.

Abdi Latif Dahir, Quartz: “Ethiopia’s coup attempt spells disaster for its democratic transition”

Reuters: “Explainer: Ethiopia’s Ethnic Militias in the Spotlight After Failed Coup”

Reuters: “Opposition politicians in Ethiopia are warning against a delay to national elections due in 2020 that would be the first under reformist Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed but are under threat from an explosion of regional ethnic rivalries.”

Burundi Presidential and Legislative - Expected July 2020

Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

In 2015, President Pierre Nkurunziza ran for a third term, which critics said was unconstitutional. Nkurunziza’s decision sparked a political crisis. The opposition boycotted the election. Nkurunziza won, but the election was marred by violence and a coup attempt. In 2018, Nkurunziza said he would step down in 2020. Burundi’s 12-year civil war ended in 2005, but violence and authoritarianism have been on the rise. Many Burundians are nervous about the upcoming polls.

International Crisis Group: “Report: Running Out of Options in Burundi: Talks about ending Burundi’s crisis – sparked by the president’s decision to seek a third term – have fizzled out. With elections nearing in 2020, tensions could flare. Strong regional pressure is needed to begin opening up the country’s political space before the balloting.”

Francis Njuguna, Crux: “Burundi’s bishops caution that political intolerance poses threats”

Lewis Mudge, Human Rights Watch: “What Does Burundi Have To Hide? UN Should Step Up Scrutiny of Abuses Ahead of 2020 Elections”

Somalia Parliamentary - Expected 2020 or 2021

Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic

Sella Oneko and Alex Gitta, DW: “Is Somalia ready for a one-person one-vote election? It’s been 50 years since Somalia last conducted a “one-person one-vote” election. With the support of the African Union the electoral commission is hoping for polls in 2020. But there is still much that needs to be done.”

African Union Mission in Somalia: “Senior Somali officials optimistic about upcoming polls”

Sudan Ongoing Crisis

Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

In April, nonviolent demonstrations ousted Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir. Last week, around the 30th anniversary of Tiananmen Square, Sudanese troops massacred citizens protesting the regime.

Elizabeth Murray, U.S. Institute of Peace: “Sudan Remains at a Stalemate After the Military’s Crackdown. Protesters continue to demand that the military hand over power to civilians.”

Claire Parker, Washington Post: “Sudan’s military has shut down the Internet to crush a popular revolt. Here’s how it could backfire”

Mauritania Presidential – June 22, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Mauritania’s incumbent president, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, came to power in a military coup in 2009 and the country is rated “not free” by Freedom House, but some hope that political space could be opening up, albeit slowly. While most believed that the ruling Union for the Republic party’s candidate, Defense Minister Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, would win (and he indeed did win), opposition candidates participated (in contrast to the 2014 presidential election, which they boycotted), although they have expressed concerns about the electoral process and the lack of international observers.

Ahmed Mohamed, Associated Press: “Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, a retired general who served as defense minister before being picked as the chosen successor to Mauritania’s outgoing president, won the weekend election by a large margin, the country’s electoral commission announced. The result had been widely expected and was swiftly confirmed after Ghazouani claimed victory Saturday evening within hours of polls closing.”

France24: “Opposition candidates in Mauritania’s presidential election on Sunday cried foul after government candidate Mohamed Cheikh El-Ghazouani claimed victory before full results were in. Sidi Mohamed Ould Boubacar, addressing a news conference along with three other candidates, said “multiple irregularities… eliminated any credibility” of the Saturday polls in the West African desert nation.”

Malawi Tripartite (Presidential, Legislative, Local) - May 21, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Lameck Masina, Voice of America: “Opposition lawmakers in Malawi walked out of parliament Friday as President Peter Mutharika started delivering the state of the nation address. The opposition was protesting the president and the May 21 election, which they said Mutharika won by fraud.”

Benin Parliamentary - April 28, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Benin was previously a model democracy in the region, but the April 2019 parliamentary elections changed that. Opposition candidates were barred from running, and security forces opened fire on protesters.

Africa News: “Boni Yayi is free to move again. Benin police put an end to the restraint of the former Beninese president to his home on Saturday after two months under house arrest. The former president was accused of inciting violence after the controversial parliamentary elections in April. Boni Yayi described the election as an ‘electoral coup d’état’ while calling for an end to the process.”

France24: “Benin’s ex-president Boni Yayi leaves country”

AFP: “Though Yayi headed for Togo’s capital Lome, party officials said that was not his final destination.”

Adam Valavanis, Global Risk Insights: “Benin’s Democracy: What has happened to it?”

Upcoming Elections
Democratic Republic of the Congo Local – September 22, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

In addition to the political turmoil, the DRC faces the world’s second-deadliest outbreak of Ebola, with almost 1,500 deaths.

AFP: “Police in the Democratic Republic of Congo fired tear gas at protesters against a visit Sunday by opposition leader Jean-Pierre Bemba who made a low-key return home, flying in from Brussels on a private jet.”

Botswana Parliamentary – October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Botswana, the world’s second-largest producer of diamonds, is a stable democracy with regular free, fair, credible elections. In 2018, President Ian Khama stepped down exactly 10 years after his inauguration, in keeping with the constitutional limit of two terms in office (his predecessor had done the same thing). Mokgweetsi Masisi, the former vice president, is filling the role of the presidency until after the elections, when the National Assembly will choose a new president. Khama’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – founded by his father, Seretse Khama, protagonist of the 2017 film A United Kingdom – has dominated politics since independence in 1966, but soon after leaving office, Khama left the BDP to form a new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front. The split could open up debate on actual policy, or it could devolve into a personal power struggle.

The National Assembly will elect a new president following the parliamentary elections.

African Arguments: “Who wins when Bostwana’s presidents feud?”

Michelle Gavin, Council on Foreign Relations: “Personal Rivalries Overshadow Botswana’s Democracy”

Mozambique Legislative and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since, but currently have a ceasefire). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.

RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities.

Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgencyin the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth.

Lusa News Agency: “Mozambique’s National Election Commission (CNE) has received candidacy proposals from 39 parties and three coalitions for the legislative and provincial elections on 15 October, it said on Tuesday. The figures are part of the CNE’s balance sheet on the submission of candidacy proposals, which ended on Monday.”

Guinea-Bissau Presidential – November 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

In March 2019, Guinea-Bissau finally held long-delayed legislative elections. The ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) won 47 out of 102 seats, but made deals with three smaller parties to form a coalition with 54 seats. Prone to coups (most recently in 2012), no elected leader has served a full term since independence from Portugal. The country remains in a political crisis, with President José Mário Vaz (known as Jomav) in a feud with his own party (PAIGC). Vaz plans to run for re-election. Sometimes dubbed “the world’s first narco-state,” it risks once again becoming a hub for drug traffickers. 

AFP: “Guinea Bissau will hold presidential elections on November 24 this year, according to a decree announced by president Jose Mario Vaz on Tuesday. In the upcoming elections, 49 political parties are legally registered in the country, according to the decree.”

DW: “Guinea-Bissau president names new prime minister ‘in name of peace’ Aristides Gomes has been named as Guinea-Bissau’s new prime minister, ending a long political deadlock. President Jose Mario Vaz had refused to name his estranged deputy to the post.”

Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic

Following three years of protests, Ethiopia’s ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners and opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful.

In the 2015 elections, the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats.

Abdi Latif Dahir, Quartz: “Ethiopia’s coup attempt spells disaster for its democratic transition”

Reuters: “Explainer: Ethiopia’s Ethnic Militias in the Spotlight After Failed Coup”

Reuters: “Opposition politicians in Ethiopia are warning against a delay to national elections due in 2020 that would be the first under reformist Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed but are under threat from an explosion of regional ethnic rivalries.”

Burundi Presidential and Legislative – Expected July 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

In 2015, President Pierre Nkurunziza ran for a third term, which critics said was unconstitutional. Nkurunziza’s decision sparked a political crisis. The opposition boycotted the election. Nkurunziza won, but the election was marred by violence and a coup attempt. In 2018, Nkurunziza said he would step down in 2020. Burundi’s 12-year civil war ended in 2005, but violence and authoritarianism have been on the rise. Many Burundians are nervous about the upcoming polls.

International Crisis Group: “Report: Running Out of Options in Burundi: Talks about ending Burundi’s crisis – sparked by the president’s decision to seek a third term – have fizzled out. With elections nearing in 2020, tensions could flare. Strong regional pressure is needed to begin opening up the country’s political space before the balloting.”

Francis Njuguna, Crux: “Burundi’s bishops caution that political intolerance poses threats”

Lewis Mudge, Human Rights Watch: “What Does Burundi Have To Hide? UN Should Step Up Scrutiny of Abuses Ahead of 2020 Elections”

Somalia Parliamentary – Expected 2020 or 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic

Sella Oneko and Alex Gitta, DW: “Is Somalia ready for a one-person one-vote election? It’s been 50 years since Somalia last conducted a “one-person one-vote” election. With the support of the African Union the electoral commission is hoping for polls in 2020. But there is still much that needs to be done.”

African Union Mission in Somalia: “Senior Somali officials optimistic about upcoming polls”

Sudan Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

In April, nonviolent demonstrations ousted Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir. Last week, around the 30th anniversary of Tiananmen Square, Sudanese troops massacred citizens protesting the regime.

Elizabeth Murray, U.S. Institute of Peace: “Sudan Remains at a Stalemate After the Military’s Crackdown. Protesters continue to demand that the military hand over power to civilians.”

Claire Parker, Washington Post: “Sudan’s military has shut down the Internet to crush a popular revolt. Here’s how it could backfire”

Past Elections
Mauritania Presidential – June 22, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Mauritania’s incumbent president, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, came to power in a military coup in 2009 and the country is rated “not free” by Freedom House, but some hope that political space could be opening up, albeit slowly. While most believed that the ruling Union for the Republic party’s candidate, Defense Minister Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, would win (and he indeed did win), opposition candidates, including anti-slavery activist Biram Dah Abeid, participated. This contrasts with the 2014 presidential election, which the opposition boycotted. There are concerns about the electoral process and the lack of international observers.

Ahmed Mohamed, Associated Press: “Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, a retired general who served as defense minister before being picked as the chosen successor to Mauritania’s outgoing president, won the weekend election by a large margin, the country’s electoral commission announced. The result had been widely expected and was swiftly confirmed after Ghazouani claimed victory Saturday evening within hours of polls closing.”

France24: “Opposition candidates in Mauritania’s presidential election on Sunday cried foul after government candidate Mohamed Cheikh El-Ghazouani claimed victory before full results were in. Sidi Mohamed Ould Boubacar, addressing a news conference along with three other candidates, said “multiple irregularities… eliminated any credibility” of the Saturday polls in the West African desert nation.”

Malawi Tripartite (Presidential, Legislative, Local) – May 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Lameck Masina, Voice of America: “Opposition lawmakers in Malawi walked out of parliament Friday as President Peter Mutharika started delivering the state of the nation address. The opposition was protesting the president and the May 21 election, which they said Mutharika won by fraud.”

Benin Parliamentary – April 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Benin was previously a model democracy in the region, but the April 2019 parliamentary elections changed that. Opposition candidates were barred from running, and security forces opened fire on protesters.

Africa News: “Boni Yayi is free to move again. Benin police put an end to the restraint of the former Beninese president to his home on Saturday after two months under house arrest. The former president was accused of inciting violence after the controversial parliamentary elections in April. Boni Yayi described the election as an ‘electoral coup d’état’ while calling for an end to the process.”

France24: “Benin’s ex-president Boni Yayi leaves country”

AFP: “Though Yayi headed for Togo’s capital Lome, party officials said that was not his final destination.”

Adam Valavanis, Global Risk Insights: “Benin’s Democracy: What has happened to it?”

The Year Ahead: Africa
Guinea legislative (overdue – mandates of current legislators expired January 13 – date not set for new elections); Chad legislative (originally due in 2015 but have been delayed several times – unclear when they will. actually happen); Togo local (June 30); Botswana parliamentary (October); Cameroon parliamentary (October); Mozambique presidential, legislative, provincial (October 15); Somalia, Somaliland congressional and local (November 1, 2019 – tentative); Guinea-Bissau presidential (November 3 – tentative); Namibia presidential and legislative (November 27); Mauritius legislative (December); Senegal local (December 1); Mali legislative (May 2020 – long overdue – additional delays possible)


A campaign rally for FRELIMO during Mozambique’s 2014 election campaign. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Adrien Barbier

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