Upcoming Elections
Mozambique Presidential, Legislative, and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 27.2 million
Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since then until an August 2019 peace accord). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.
Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth. Russia has ramped up its involvement in Mozambique’s energy and security sectors.
RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities. In the upcoming elections, in addition to voting for president, citizens will elect provincial governors directly for the first time – previously, they had been appointed by the president. A breakaway faction of RENAMO has threatened violence if the elections proceed, but the government has no plans to delay or cancel the polls.
Corinna Jentzsch, Foreign Affairs: “Peace Is a Losing Strategy in Mozambique: Why Elections Could Cause Another Civil War”
Botswana Parliamentary – October 23, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 2.2 million
Botswana, the world’s second-largest producer of diamonds, is a stable democracy with regular free, fair, credible elections. In 2018, President Ian Khama stepped down exactly 10 years after his inauguration, in keeping with the constitutional limit of two terms in office (his predecessor had done the same thing).
Mokgweetsi Masisi, the former vice president, is filling the role of the presidency until after the elections, when the National Assembly will choose a new president. Khama’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – founded by his father, Seretse Khama – has dominated politics since independence in 1966, but soon after leaving office, Khama left the BDP to support a new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front (BFP), which has ties to the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), Botswana’s main opposition coalition. The split has the opportunity to open up debate on actual policy, but it could devolve into a personal power struggle. There is concern that some of Botswana’s institutions are eroding.
The National Assembly will elect a new president following the parliamentary elections.
The Africa Report: “Botswana’s tight electoral contest presents unforeseen risks for Africa’s democracy poster child: In its 53 years in power, the governing party, the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) has never come this close to losing an election. True, it has seen its support dwindle over time, and most notably lost the popular vote in the last election in 2014.”
Ale-esi Makgekgenene, Southern Times (Namibia): “Botswana is celebrated as one of the oldest democracies in Africa and a model for the African continent. The countries politics, despite several undercurrents, is uniquely in Africa, generally devoid of drama. It has also had, until a few years ago, an enviable record in terms of the lack of corruption and its leaders have usually always been understated rather than florid….For the first time that anyone can remember, the BDP will be campaigning when the election outcome is not cut and dried. “
The Namibian: “Botswana elections – Khama brothers on opposite sides”
Tanzania Local – November 24, 2019 and General – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 55.5 million
Tanzania’s socialist Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and its predecessors have been in power since 1961. In the 2015 elections, deemed imperfect but credible by observers, John Magufuli won, and has since launched a crackdown on the opposition, media, civil society, and the private sector. The main opposition center-right Chadema, whose leader Freeman Mbowe recently spent nearly five months in prison on charges of sedition, currently holds 62 out of 384 seats in the unicameral National Assembly. Edward Lowassa, a former CCM prime minister who ran for president in 2015 as the candidate of Chadema and a coalition of other opposition parties, won 40 percent of the vote. Lowassa has since returned to CCM along with other opposition figures who have been bribed or bullied into crossing the aisle and joining the ruling party.
The Economist notes, “Today Tanzania is on the descent from patchy democracy towards slapdash dictatorship.”
Khalifa Said, The Citizen (Tanzania): “The coalition of civil society organisations launched its election manifesto for 2019/2020 here yesterday, giving priority to issues of human rights as well as inclusive and sustainable development….Taking place under the auspices of the Tanzania Human Rights Defenders Coalition (THRDC), this year’s CSOs’ election manifesto is the second after the coalition released its first manifesto four years ago for the 2015 general election. More than 90 CSOs contributed in the making of the manifesto, according to drafters, and it covers a wide range of important policy issues.”
Reuters: “The lawyer for a prominent Tanzanian journalist arrested more than two months ago called on Tuesday on President John Magufuli to pardon him as a court postponed a hearing into his case for a sixth time.”
Nigeria Kogi and Bayelsa State Governorships and Niger State Local Government – November 16, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Party Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: Nigeria – 203.5 million; Kogi State – 3.1 million; Bayelsa State – 1.7 million; Niger State – 4 million (Nigeria’s largest state)
Nigeria, the “Giant of Africa,” as Nigerians call the continent’s most populous country, has a history of military coups, and since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international and Nigerian observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.
The two main political parties are the “sort-of-right” People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and “sort-of-left” All Progressives Congress (APC), plus a plethora of smaller parties. Historically, PDP has been strong in Christian areas and in the south, while APC has been strong in the mostly-Muslim north. Nigeria is about half Christian and half Muslim, and there is some religious conflict, but religion is not the only driver of conflict in the country. There is a handshake agreement that the presidency will rotate between the north and the south every eight years, regardless of which party wins; thus, for the 2019 election, both major parties chose candidates from the north. PDP nominated Atiku Abubakar to challenge APC incumbent Muhammadu Buhari, who won narrowly. APC also won a majority in the legislature.
A debate over federalism played a major role in Nigeria’s February 2019 general elections. Atiku advocated for a greater devolution of powers to state governments, a proposal that Buhari categorically opposed. Political power is currently highly centralized, but many argue that it is dysfunctional.
Voters in 29 of Nigeria’s 36 states elected governors during the general elections in February 2019. Bayelsa State in the southern oil-producing Niger Delta, and Kogi State in the Middle Belt have gubernatorial elections in mid-November. (The Middle Belt is a largely-agricultural area that forms the border between the mostly-Muslim north and mostly Christian south, and the site of a deadly conflict between farmers and herders.) PDP currently control Bayelsa (and 13 other states), and APC currently controls the remaining states, including Kogi. These state elections are taking place in the context of continued litigation over the national elections. Atiku has challenged his defeat in court, alleging electoral fraud. A tribunal rejected his complaint, but he is expected to appeal.
New Telegraph (Nigeria): “Ahead of the Bayelsa State governorship poll, a pall of disquiet has enveloped the All Progressives Congress (APC) as members tango in a battle with a former governor of the state, Chief Timipre Sylva, over the party’s candidate, Mr. David Lyon.”
Reuters: “Nigerian activist and former presidential candidate Omoyele Sowore pleaded not guilty at a court in Abuja on Monday to charges of treason, money laundering and harassing the president. State Security Service agents arrested Sowore in early August after he called for a revolution after a February election which he said was not credible. He ran for president in that election, in which former military ruler President Muhammadu Buhari secured a second term in office.”
John Campbell, Council on Foreign Relations: “Drivers of Nigerian Kidnapping Morph From Politics to Poverty”
Guinea-Bissau Presidential – November 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 1.8 million
In March 2019, Guinea-Bissau finally held long-delayed legislative elections. The ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) won 47 out of 102 seats, but made deals with three smaller parties to form a coalition with 54 seats. Prone to coups (most recently in 2012), no elected leader has served a full term since independence from Portugal. The country remains in a political crisis, with President José Mário Vaz (known as Jomav) in a feud with his own party (PAIGC). Vaz plans to run for re-election. Sometimes dubbed “the world’s first narco-state,” it risks once again becoming a hub for drug traffickers.
AFP: “Nineteen candidates, including incumbent Jose Mario Vaz, have filed applications to contest upcoming presidential elections in the crisis-ridden West African state of Guinea-Bissau, according to the official list unveiled on Thursday [September 26]. The vote has been pencilled for November 24, although the date is highly uncertain because of a strike in the judiciary, which approves applications.”
UN News: “Guinea-Bissau spotlights threats of organized crime, Sahel terrorism in speech to UN Assembly”
Chad Legislative and Local – Due 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 15.8 million
Idriss Déby seized power in a rebellion in 1990, and although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote. Western governments, particularly France, view the Déby regime as a security partner in countering terrorism in the region, and provide military aid. Opposition activists face arrest and mistreatment. There are concerns that the regime uses counterterrorism as an excuse for suppressing legitimate political opposition.
The mandate of the current National Assembly expired in 2015, and the elections have been delayed multiple times. In 2018, President Idriss Déby announced that the elections would happen in the “first half of 2019,” without giving a date, but in May 2019, the government delayed the elections indefinitely again, citing cost. The opposition holds that the real issue is a lack of political will. The government had said that elections will be held by a September deadline, but the deadline passed and the elections did not happen.
Mathiew Olivier, Jeune Afrique (in French): “A new commission was set up on Tuesday 24 September in the National Framework for Political Dialogue. Its objective: to revise the Chadian electoral code and to promote legislative elections before early 2020….The date of the legislative elections has been in the center of debate for several months. Idriss Deby Itno has indeed announced that he wants to hold the polls no later than January 2020.”
Blaise Dariustone, DW (in French): “For many election observers and experts, going to elections in December or January is not realistic because much remains to be done. The electoral code must be revised, the electoral census organized, the electoral body summoned and the electoral campaign organized. Part of the opposition even threatens to suspend its participation in the process if the CENI validates the schedule imposed by the head of state.”
Guinea Legislative – 2019 and Presidential – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.9 million
Elections in Guinea routinely see significant delays and have historically been surrounded by ethnic tensions and violence. President Alpha Condé, a former opposition leader who came to power in 2010 following a transition from military to civilian rule, is prevented by the constitution from running for a third term in the presidential polls due in 2020. However, he wants to change the constitution to allow him to do so (which Russia is encouraging because Russian companies have mining interests in Guinea). The terms of the current legislators expired in January 2019. Condé extended their mandates, and a new election date has not been set.
AFP: “President Alpha Conde of Guinea has called on the public to prepare for a referendum and elections, stirring speculation that he will seek to overcome a constitutional ban on a third term in office….Conde is a former opposition figure who came to power in 2010, becoming the first democratically-elected president of Guinea, an impoverished former French colony in West Africa. But he has also been criticised for deadly use of gunfire by police to quell demonstrations. Scores have been killed, according to the opposition.”
Stratfor: “If Conde pushes for another term in spite of the current two-term limit, it would likely mobilize Guinea’s opposition, paving the way for potentially destabilizing violence that could disrupt business activity.”
AP: “10 years after Guinea stadium massacre, justice is elusive”
Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – Early 2020 (delayed from October 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 25.6 million
Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.
Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat. The political crisis has an ethnic dimension.
Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections, which are likely delayed following a July vote by the National Assembly to extend its term in office (the National Assembly’s second extension). The mandates were set to expire October 29, 2019 and have been extended for two months, so the elections that had been due in October most likely will not happen before 2020.
AFP: “Cameroon starts a national dialogue on Monday [September 30] in a bid to end a separatist conflict in the country’s anglophone provinces though key rebel leaders have already refused to participate.”
Moli Edwin Kindzeka, VOA: “Separatist Leaders Shun Cameroon’s ‘National Dialogue’”
Silja Fröhlich and Dirke Köpp, DW: “Who are Cameroon’s self-named Ambazonia secessionists? Two years ago secessionists earmarked Cameroon’s English-speaking regions for a new African nation, they named Ambazonia. But their pursuit for self-rule has led to death and destruction of civilians in the crosshairs.”
R. Maxwell Bone and AKem Kelvin Nkwain, African Arguments: “When it was announced that President Biya would deliver a special address to the nation, many hoped he would signal a change of course. Instead, he denied the existence of longstanding grievances and the role his government’s violent actions have had in leading to today’s deadly war. It is clear that the national dialogue, which begins today, will not differ from those carried out in the past.”
Claire Hazbun and Ken Opalo, Foreign Policy: “Cameroon Must Make Concessions to End the Anglophone Crisis: President Paul Biya won’t get anywhere without engaging directly with separatist grievances.”
Paul-Simon Handy, Institute for Security Studies: “Done properly, national dialogue could stabilise Cameroon”
Journal du Cameroun: “The detained leader of the Cameroon Renaissance Movement Maurice Kamto has raised doubts over the ability of UN Secretary General to help find solutions to the crises in Cameroon.”
Illaria Allegrozzi, Human Rights Watch: “Hard Lessons in Cameroon: Discussing Current Events Lands Teacher in Jail”
Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 108.4 million
In 1974, communist rebels deposed Ethiopia’s Emperor Haile Selassie and instituted the Derg (“Committee”), a Marxist military junta led by Mengistu Haile Mariam, which brought forth famines and a collapse of Ethiopia’s economy. It governed brutally, even genocidally. Following a civil war, the Derg was ousted in 1991 by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a coalition of ethnically-based rebel militias. The EPRDF took power and morphed into a coalition of four ethnically-based political parties: Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Amhara Democratic Party (ADP), Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), and Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM). In power, EPRDF instituted a controversial ethnically-based federalist system that has led to a current climate of tension and unrest.
EPRDF has held elections regularly, but aside from the 2005 polls, none were competitive or credible. In the last elections, in 2015, the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats. However, following three years of protests, the EPRDF chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister in 2018. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners, opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space, and holding free and fair elections in 2020. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles, including entrenched opposition to democracy within EPRDF. However, ongoing ethnic conflict could threaten Abiy’s reforms. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful.
AP: “The office of Ethiopia‘s attorney general says more than 1,200 people have been killed and more than 1.2 million displaced in clashes in the country over the past year. The clashes, mostly along ethnic lines, have continued to strain the reforms announced by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed after he took office in April 2018.”
Burundi Presidential and Legislative – May 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.8 million
Burundi’s 12-year civil war ended in 2005, but since then, President Pierre Nkurunziza has turned the country into a dictatorship that former U.N. rights chief Zeid Raad al-Hussein described as one of “the most prolific slaughterhouses of humans in recent times.” In 2015, Nkurunziza ran for a third term, a move critics said was unconstitutional. Nkurunziza’s decision sparked a political crisis, and the election was marred by violence and a coup attempt. Nkurunziza won. Nonetheless, some opposition lawmakers did take their seats in parliament.
The upcoming elections are taking place in a climate of fear, with citizens, and especially opposition and civil society activists, being terrorized by state security apparatus and the Imbonerakure, a youth militia connected to Nkurunziza’s National Council for the Defense of Democracy–Forces for the Defense of Democracy party (a party that in fact does the opposite of defending democracy). Nkurunziza has said he would step down in 2020, but some are concerned that he will run for a fourth term. There are also fears that Nkurunziza – a former Hutu rebel commander – is ethnicizing the country’s politics, which could reignite conflict.
Ineke Mules, DW: “’Climate of fear’ worsens in Burundi: Bishops have accused authorities of violently persecuting opponents, as the government continues to reject repeated claims of human rights abuses. Since 2015, at least 1,200 people have been killed in political clashes.”
Catholic News Agency: “Burundi official calls for laicization of bishops over election message”
AFP: “Burundi’s senate president has come under fire over recorded remarks of him placing a price on the head of a man accused of training militias at the height of the country’s 2015 political crisis. In comments recorded earlier in September, verified by AFP Thursday, senate chief Reverien Ndikuriyo, admitted he offered 2,450 euros ($2,600) for a former soldier he accused of providing military training to be brought to him ‘dead or alive.’”
Paul Nantulya, Africa Center for Strategic Studies: “Burundi, the Forgotten Crisis, Still Burns: Although Nkurunziza has suppressed external reporting on Burundi, the country’s 4-year-old political and humanitarian crisis shows no signs of abating.”
Côte d’Ivoire Presidential and Legislative – October 31, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 26.3 million
These elections are taking place in a heated political context, and the personalities gearing up to contest the presidential election have been fixtures in Côte d’Ivoire’s politics since the death of Félix Houphouët-Boigny, who served as Côte d’Ivoire’s president from independence in 1960 until his death in 1993.
Until 1999, the country was stable and seen as a model of economic prosperity in the region, but two civil wars – first beginning in1999 and the second ending in 2011 – have created political instability, although the economy remains strong as Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s largest producer of cocoa beans..
Democratization began in 1990, and Houphouët-Boigny and his Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire – African Democratic Rally (PDCI-RDA) trounced Laurent Gbagbo and the socialist Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) in the first multi-party elections that year. Following Houphouët-Boigny’s death, Henri Konan Bédié, then speaker of the National Assembly and a member of PDCI-RDA, became president after a brief struggle with then-Prime Minister Prime Minister Alassane Ouattara, a technocrat who had joined PDCI-RDA. Ouattara then took a job abroad with the International Monetary Fund and joined the liberal Rally of Republicans (RDR) party. Bédié was deposed in a military coup in 1999, which kicked off the first civil war.
Houpouët-Boigny’s development of cocoa farming planted the seeds of the conflict. He had a policy of encouraging immigrant laborers from neighboring Burkina Faso, and now Burkinabés, as these families are called, constitute 30 percent of the country’s population. In the mid- and late-1990s, politicians pushed the idea of Ivoirité, a concept that imagines national identity as fundamentally southern and Christian.
Gbagbo lost the 2010 election to Ouattara, but he refused to step down even though the international community recognized Ouattara’s victory. The surrounding violence led to 3,000 deaths and half a million displaced people. Gbagbo was arrested four months after the polls and charged with war crimes (he was acquitted in 2019, but the prosecution is appealing the verdict). In 2015, Ouattara won re-election in relatively peaceful and credible polls. Gbagbo and Bédié had a meeting in Brussels in July 2019 that sparked rumors about a possible alliance ahead of the 2020 elections.
Leanne de Bassompierre, Bloomberg: “Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara is in favor of “handing over to the new generation” in next year’s presidential polls, but did not rule out running in the election. The 78-year-old, who has just over a year left of his second term in office, was addressing reporters in his hometown of Dimbokro after a four-day visit to the surrounding region.”
BBC (in French): “The 15 members of the Central Commission of the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) of Côte d’Ivoire are now known. The list of the 15 Central Commissioners of the new IEC was unveiled Wednesday at the exceptional cabinet meeting in Dimbokro.”
The Economist: “Ivory Coast’s economy is booming, but its politics look wobbly. An election next year risks pushing the country back into conflict.”
Ghana Presidential and Legislative – December 7, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 28.1 million
Ghana’s two main political parties, the center-right New Patriotic Party (NPP) and center-left National Democratic Congress (NDC), have alternated stints in power since Ghana began holding multiparty elections. Ghana is often cited as a success story for democratic transition, despite some lingering issues.
Although each party has bases of support in certain regions or ethnic groups, the parties define themselves by ideology and campaign on issues. In the 2016 presidential polls, NPP’s Nana Akufo-Addo defeated incumbent John Mahama from the NDC following a contentious campaign. Eleven parties competed in the parliamentary elections, but only the NPP and the NDC won seats, with the NPP winning a majority.
Isaac Kaledzi and Ineke Mules, DW: “Ghanaian authorities say they have detained three suspects over an alleged plot to destabilize the country. The news came as a surprise to security analysts, considering Ghana’s reputation as a stable democracy.”
Sally Hayden, Irish Times: “Ghanaian citizens have been casting doubt on the severity of the coup attempt, posting joking messages on social media saying they are planning a coup with implements such as a spatula, a tongs, a mop, a sweeping brush and insecticide spray, while using the hashtag #CoupChallenge.”
APA: “Ghana’s ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) is voting on Saturday {September 28] in 100 orphan constituencies in parliamentary primaries to elect parliamentary candidates for the 2020 general election.The orphan constituencies are those constituencies in which the ruling NPP has no sitting Member of Parliament (MP) or is occupied by the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC).”
Central African Republic General – December 27, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 5.4 million
The Central African Republic (CAR) faces a humanitarian crisis and a crisis of governance. The country has been gripped by sectarian clashes since 2013, when Seleka (“alliance” in Sango, a local language) Muslim insurgents forced President François Bozizé from office and installed Michel Djotodia, a Muslim and a northerner. Exact estimates of the country’s religious breakdown vary, but CAR is more than 80 percent Christian and animist and about 10-15 percent Muslim, and southern Christians had held the presidency since independence from France in 1960. A group of southern Christians formed anti-Balaka (“invincible” in Sango) and clashes have been taking place since then. A 2017 peace agreement between the government and all but one of the armed militias did little to stop the violence. Fighting continues despite a new agreement signed in February 2019 that gave government roles to some of the insurgent leaders. The government has extremely limited – if any – power outside Bangui, the capital.
Djotodia’s presidency lasted for less than a year. A UN-backed transitional government took over until the 2016 elections, which were generally regarded as credible despite some fraud, and which led to a peaceful transition of power. Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a former prime minister and mathematics professor, won the presidential election in a runoff. His opponent, Anicet-Georges Dologuélé, also a former prime minister, conceded and urged his supporters to accept the results peacefully. Political parties are weak – a large chunk of the National Assembly are independents, as is Touadéra (although he had previously been a member of Bozizé’s National Convergence “Kwa Na Kwa” (KNK) party).
Russia has ramped up its political and military involvement in exchange for mining rights. Last year, three Russian journalists from a newspaper critical of the Kremlin were killed in the country while they were investigating the role of the Wagner Group, a Russian military contractor, in exploiting the CAR’s mineral wealth. A Russian national is Touadéra’s national security advisor, and the Wagner Group handles Touadéra’s personal security detail.
Dionne Searcey, New York Times: “Diamonds, Warlords and Mercenaries: Russia’s New Playbook in Africa – After meddling in the 2016 American election, Russia is using similar tactics in the Central African Republic. But as it sows political chaos, this time it is also seeking diamonds.”
UN News: “Central African Republic: Three UN peacekeepers killed, fourth injured following helicopter crash”
Somalia Parliamentary and Presidential – due 2020 or 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 11.3 million (very rough estimate)
Somalia hasn’t held direct elections in 50 years at the federal level, and at the state level, only the de facto independent Somaliland holds one-person-one-vote polls. The other states have electoral colleges with clan elders as electors. Somalia has federal elections due in 2020 or 2021, and hopes to move toward a one-person-one-vote model. Politics – and conflict – throughout Somalia is largely based on clans, but efforts have been made to move toward a politics based on political parties. The terrorist group al-Shabab remains a menace.
Galmudug State, in central Somalia, is set to hold an indirect presidential election soon.
Abdi Tawane and Mohamed Dube, The East African: “How Gulf geopolitics are turning Somalia into a theatre of the absurd: More than 50 political parties (mostly based in Mogadishu) have been registered by the electoral body ahead of the next elections to replace clan-based politics. This is a major step towards a return to democracy and a sign of enthusiasm for multi-party politics in Somalia and would make the upcoming presidential election campaign more intense than the preceding ones.”
Reuters: “The U.S. military said on Monday that U.S. and partnered forces had killed 10 militants and destroyed a vehicle after Somali insurgents mounted an ambitious attack on a base where U.S. special forces train Somali commandos.”
Past Elections
Uganda By-Elections in Hoima and Kaabong – September 26, 2019 (next general elections will be in February 2021)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Partly Free this year)
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 40.9 million
President Yoweri Museveni has held power since 1986 and looks likely to seek a sixth term. Musaveni is seen as an ally to Western governments on counterterrorism issues, despite concerns about human rights and civil liberties.
Musaveni’s National Resistance Movement (NRM), an authoritarian nationalist party, was originally a militia involved in the struggle to topple the government in 1986. In the last presidential election in 2016 (which was marred by an uneven playing field and government use of state resources and security services for political purposes), Kizza Besigye of the main opposition center-right Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) won 35.6 percent, coming in second. NRM holds 293 out of 426 seats in parliament, and FDC holds 36 (other opposition parties hold 21).
For the upcoming elections, 37-year-old pop star Bobi Wine has emerged as a leading opposition candidate.
Charles M. Mpagi, The East African: “Two by-elections took place in Hoima this past week, presenting a litmus test for both the ruling National Resistance Movement and the opposition parties in Uganda exactly 15 months before the 2021 general elections….The Hoima elections helped put into perspective some critical questions for political observers such as whether the opposition can, after failed previous efforts forge a meaningful joint effort to challenge and fight the advantages of the incumbency including protecting their vote.”
The Observer (Uganda): “NRM wins Hoima, Kaabong by-elections”
Sally Hayden, Irish Times: “Ugandans went to the polls in the country’s west on Thursday [September 26] in a byelection which saw popstar-turned-opposition politician Bobi Wine go head to head with long-standing president Yoweri Museveni….The two men backed opposing candidates. Mr Museveni backed his National Resistance Movement party’s Harriet Businge Mugenyi, while Mr Wine backed Asinansi Nyakato, of the Forum for Democratic Change party.”
Reuters: “Ugandan pop star and presidential hopeful Bobi Wine has denounced the government’s banning of civilian use of red berets, a symbol of his ‘People Power’ movement that he hopes to use to oust longtime President Yoweri Museveni.”
Rwanda Local By-Elections – September 26, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: 12.2 million
Population: Presidential Republic
Régis Umurengezi, The New Times (Rwanda): “Voters in 23 sectors in 13 districts across the country today [September 26] headed to polling stations in elections to fill vacant positions on district councils following a recent spate of resignations of district mayors and their deputies. The mass exits saw up to 23 local government officials, including five mayors, quit their positions in what the Government attributed to failure to deliver on their responsibilities.”
Jane Flanagan, The Australian: “Two killers on a motorbike stabbed a senior opposition figure to death in the latest in a wave of murders and kidnappings of government critics in Rwanda. Syldio Dusabumuremyi, 42, was the sixth FDU-Inkingi party member to have been killed or ‘disappeared’ in the past three years, with nine others languishing in jail accused of ‘terrorism’ in the repressive East African state.”
Jason Burke, The Guardian: “Victoire Ingabire, the party’s leader, said Monday’s attack was aimed at preventing her party from winning official recognition. ‘They want to prevent me from creating an opposition party … This killing has no other implications other than intimidating Rwandans from participating in politics of their country,’ she said.”
Senegal Presidential – February 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 15 million
Senegal is lauded as one of West Africa’s most stable democracies. However, there are some concerns that the political playing field is becoming less even under President Macky Sall, who was re-elected in the February 2019 presidential elections amid accusations that he had improperly used state resources to suppress opponents and bolster his campaign.
Senegal was supposed to have local elections in December 2019, but they have been postponed to late 2020.
BBC: “Senegal’s president has pardoned the former mayor of the capital city Dakar, who was jailed for five years in 2018 on corruption charges. Khalifa Sall was arrested in March 2017 for allegedly embezzling $3 million (£2.4m) in public funds.”
France24: “A popular politician, Khalifa Sall has always believed that the case brought against him was a political move to prevent him from standing in this year’s presidential election against Macky Sall [no relation], who has been in power since 2012. That claim is denied by officials.”
The Gambia Presidential – December 1, 2016 and Legislative – April 6, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 2.1 million
In December 2016, The Gambia began a remarkable transition to democracy. Citizens removed dictator Yahya Jammeh – who had come to power in a coup and ruled for 22 years – peacefully, via the ballot box, in a surprising result. Opposition candidate Adama Barrow won the presidency with the backing of a coalition of seven opposition parties. The country then began the process of establishing democracy and recovering from Jammeh’s brutal dictatorship.
The Gambia is actually the country’s name (unlike, for example, Ukraine or Sudan, to which many people attach the definite article), after the River Gambia, which is a source of national pride.
APA: “Gambia’s president Adama Barrow has been given the nod by the political coalition which hoisted him as their standard bearer in the 2016 presidential election to remain in office for a full five-year term.The coalition’s chairwoman Fatoumatta Tambajang emerged from hours of a closed-door meeting with President Barrow at State House on Friday, with confirmation that its members have granted his wish for a full term.”
Africa This Week – September 30, 2019
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Last Updated: October 8, 2019 by 21votes
September 30, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Africa on Mondays. Click the map pins.
Mozambique Presidential, Legislative, and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 27.2 million
Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since then until an August 2019 peace accord). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.
Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth. Russia has ramped up its involvement in Mozambique’s energy and security sectors.
RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities. In the upcoming elections, in addition to voting for president, citizens will elect provincial governors directly for the first time – previously, they had been appointed by the president. A breakaway faction of RENAMO has threatened violence if the elections proceed, but the government has no plans to delay or cancel the polls.
Botswana Parliamentary – October 23, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 2.2 million
Botswana, the world’s second-largest producer of diamonds, is a stable democracy with regular free, fair, credible elections. In 2018, President Ian Khama stepped down exactly 10 years after his inauguration, in keeping with the constitutional limit of two terms in office (his predecessor had done the same thing).
Mokgweetsi Masisi, the former vice president, is filling the role of the presidency until after the elections, when the National Assembly will choose a new president. Khama’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – founded by his father, Seretse Khama – has dominated politics since independence in 1966, but soon after leaving office, Khama left the BDP to support a new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front (BFP), which has ties to the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), Botswana’s main opposition coalition. The split has the opportunity to open up debate on actual policy, but it could devolve into a personal power struggle. There is concern that some of Botswana’s institutions are eroding.
The National Assembly will elect a new president following the parliamentary elections.
Tanzania Local – November 24, 2019 and General – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 55.5 million
Tanzania’s socialist Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and its predecessors have been in power since 1961. In the 2015 elections, deemed imperfect but credible by observers, John Magufuli won, and has since launched a crackdown on the opposition, media, civil society, and the private sector. The main opposition center-right Chadema, whose leader Freeman Mbowe recently spent nearly five months in prison on charges of sedition, currently holds 62 out of 384 seats in the unicameral National Assembly. Edward Lowassa, a former CCM prime minister who ran for president in 2015 as the candidate of Chadema and a coalition of other opposition parties, won 40 percent of the vote. Lowassa has since returned to CCM along with other opposition figures who have been bribed or bullied into crossing the aisle and joining the ruling party.
The Economist notes, “Today Tanzania is on the descent from patchy democracy towards slapdash dictatorship.”
Nigeria Kogi and Bayelsa State Governorships and Niger State Local Government – November 16, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Party Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: Nigeria – 203.5 million; Kogi State – 3.1 million; Bayelsa State – 1.7 million; Niger State – 4 million (Nigeria’s largest state)
Nigeria, the “Giant of Africa,” as Nigerians call the continent’s most populous country, has a history of military coups, and since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international and Nigerian observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.
The two main political parties are the “sort-of-right” People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and “sort-of-left” All Progressives Congress (APC), plus a plethora of smaller parties. Historically, PDP has been strong in Christian areas and in the south, while APC has been strong in the mostly-Muslim north. Nigeria is about half Christian and half Muslim, and there is some religious conflict, but religion is not the only driver of conflict in the country. There is a handshake agreement that the presidency will rotate between the north and the south every eight years, regardless of which party wins; thus, for the 2019 election, both major parties chose candidates from the north. PDP nominated Atiku Abubakar to challenge APC incumbent Muhammadu Buhari, who won narrowly. APC also won a majority in the legislature.
A debate over federalism played a major role in Nigeria’s February 2019 general elections. Atiku advocated for a greater devolution of powers to state governments, a proposal that Buhari categorically opposed. Political power is currently highly centralized, but many argue that it is dysfunctional.
Voters in 29 of Nigeria’s 36 states elected governors during the general elections in February 2019. Bayelsa State in the southern oil-producing Niger Delta, and Kogi State in the Middle Belt have gubernatorial elections in mid-November. (The Middle Belt is a largely-agricultural area that forms the border between the mostly-Muslim north and mostly Christian south, and the site of a deadly conflict between farmers and herders.) PDP currently control Bayelsa (and 13 other states), and APC currently controls the remaining states, including Kogi. These state elections are taking place in the context of continued litigation over the national elections. Atiku has challenged his defeat in court, alleging electoral fraud. A tribunal rejected his complaint, but he is expected to appeal.
Guinea-Bissau Presidential – November 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 1.8 million
In March 2019, Guinea-Bissau finally held long-delayed legislative elections. The ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) won 47 out of 102 seats, but made deals with three smaller parties to form a coalition with 54 seats. Prone to coups (most recently in 2012), no elected leader has served a full term since independence from Portugal. The country remains in a political crisis, with President José Mário Vaz (known as Jomav) in a feud with his own party (PAIGC). Vaz plans to run for re-election. Sometimes dubbed “the world’s first narco-state,” it risks once again becoming a hub for drug traffickers.
Chad Legislative and Local – Due 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 15.8 million
Idriss Déby seized power in a rebellion in 1990, and although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote. Western governments, particularly France, view the Déby regime as a security partner in countering terrorism in the region, and provide military aid. Opposition activists face arrest and mistreatment. There are concerns that the regime uses counterterrorism as an excuse for suppressing legitimate political opposition.
The mandate of the current National Assembly expired in 2015, and the elections have been delayed multiple times. In 2018, President Idriss Déby announced that the elections would happen in the “first half of 2019,” without giving a date, but in May 2019, the government delayed the elections indefinitely again, citing cost. The opposition holds that the real issue is a lack of political will. The government had said that elections will be held by a September deadline, but the deadline passed and the elections did not happen.
Guinea Legislative – 2019 and Presidential – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.9 million
Elections in Guinea routinely see significant delays and have historically been surrounded by ethnic tensions and violence. President Alpha Condé, a former opposition leader who came to power in 2010 following a transition from military to civilian rule, is prevented by the constitution from running for a third term in the presidential polls due in 2020. However, he wants to change the constitution to allow him to do so (which Russia is encouraging because Russian companies have mining interests in Guinea). The terms of the current legislators expired in January 2019. Condé extended their mandates, and a new election date has not been set.
Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – Early 2020 (delayed from October 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 25.6 million
Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.
Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat. The political crisis has an ethnic dimension.
Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections, which are likely delayed following a July vote by the National Assembly to extend its term in office (the National Assembly’s second extension). The mandates were set to expire October 29, 2019 and have been extended for two months, so the elections that had been due in October most likely will not happen before 2020.
Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 108.4 million
In 1974, communist rebels deposed Ethiopia’s Emperor Haile Selassie and instituted the Derg (“Committee”), a Marxist military junta led by Mengistu Haile Mariam, which brought forth famines and a collapse of Ethiopia’s economy. It governed brutally, even genocidally. Following a civil war, the Derg was ousted in 1991 by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a coalition of ethnically-based rebel militias. The EPRDF took power and morphed into a coalition of four ethnically-based political parties: Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Amhara Democratic Party (ADP), Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), and Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM). In power, EPRDF instituted a controversial ethnically-based federalist system that has led to a current climate of tension and unrest.
EPRDF has held elections regularly, but aside from the 2005 polls, none were competitive or credible. In the last elections, in 2015, the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats. However, following three years of protests, the EPRDF chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister in 2018. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners, opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space, and holding free and fair elections in 2020. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles, including entrenched opposition to democracy within EPRDF. However, ongoing ethnic conflict could threaten Abiy’s reforms. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful.
Burundi Presidential and Legislative – May 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.8 million
Burundi’s 12-year civil war ended in 2005, but since then, President Pierre Nkurunziza has turned the country into a dictatorship that former U.N. rights chief Zeid Raad al-Hussein described as one of “the most prolific slaughterhouses of humans in recent times.” In 2015, Nkurunziza ran for a third term, a move critics said was unconstitutional. Nkurunziza’s decision sparked a political crisis, and the election was marred by violence and a coup attempt. Nkurunziza won. Nonetheless, some opposition lawmakers did take their seats in parliament.
The upcoming elections are taking place in a climate of fear, with citizens, and especially opposition and civil society activists, being terrorized by state security apparatus and the Imbonerakure, a youth militia connected to Nkurunziza’s National Council for the Defense of Democracy–Forces for the Defense of Democracy party (a party that in fact does the opposite of defending democracy). Nkurunziza has said he would step down in 2020, but some are concerned that he will run for a fourth term. There are also fears that Nkurunziza – a former Hutu rebel commander – is ethnicizing the country’s politics, which could reignite conflict.
Côte d’Ivoire Presidential and Legislative – October 31, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 26.3 million
These elections are taking place in a heated political context, and the personalities gearing up to contest the presidential election have been fixtures in Côte d’Ivoire’s politics since the death of Félix Houphouët-Boigny, who served as Côte d’Ivoire’s president from independence in 1960 until his death in 1993.
Until 1999, the country was stable and seen as a model of economic prosperity in the region, but two civil wars – first beginning in1999 and the second ending in 2011 – have created political instability, although the economy remains strong as Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s largest producer of cocoa beans..
Democratization began in 1990, and Houphouët-Boigny and his Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire – African Democratic Rally (PDCI-RDA) trounced Laurent Gbagbo and the socialist Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) in the first multi-party elections that year. Following Houphouët-Boigny’s death, Henri Konan Bédié, then speaker of the National Assembly and a member of PDCI-RDA, became president after a brief struggle with then-Prime Minister Prime Minister Alassane Ouattara, a technocrat who had joined PDCI-RDA. Ouattara then took a job abroad with the International Monetary Fund and joined the liberal Rally of Republicans (RDR) party. Bédié was deposed in a military coup in 1999, which kicked off the first civil war.
Houpouët-Boigny’s development of cocoa farming planted the seeds of the conflict. He had a policy of encouraging immigrant laborers from neighboring Burkina Faso, and now Burkinabés, as these families are called, constitute 30 percent of the country’s population. In the mid- and late-1990s, politicians pushed the idea of Ivoirité, a concept that imagines national identity as fundamentally southern and Christian.
Gbagbo lost the 2010 election to Ouattara, but he refused to step down even though the international community recognized Ouattara’s victory. The surrounding violence led to 3,000 deaths and half a million displaced people. Gbagbo was arrested four months after the polls and charged with war crimes (he was acquitted in 2019, but the prosecution is appealing the verdict). In 2015, Ouattara won re-election in relatively peaceful and credible polls. Gbagbo and Bédié had a meeting in Brussels in July 2019 that sparked rumors about a possible alliance ahead of the 2020 elections.
Ghana Presidential and Legislative – December 7, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 28.1 million
Ghana’s two main political parties, the center-right New Patriotic Party (NPP) and center-left National Democratic Congress (NDC), have alternated stints in power since Ghana began holding multiparty elections. Ghana is often cited as a success story for democratic transition, despite some lingering issues.
Although each party has bases of support in certain regions or ethnic groups, the parties define themselves by ideology and campaign on issues. In the 2016 presidential polls, NPP’s Nana Akufo-Addo defeated incumbent John Mahama from the NDC following a contentious campaign. Eleven parties competed in the parliamentary elections, but only the NPP and the NDC won seats, with the NPP winning a majority.
Central African Republic General – December 27, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 5.4 million
The Central African Republic (CAR) faces a humanitarian crisis and a crisis of governance. The country has been gripped by sectarian clashes since 2013, when Seleka (“alliance” in Sango, a local language) Muslim insurgents forced President François Bozizé from office and installed Michel Djotodia, a Muslim and a northerner. Exact estimates of the country’s religious breakdown vary, but CAR is more than 80 percent Christian and animist and about 10-15 percent Muslim, and southern Christians had held the presidency since independence from France in 1960. A group of southern Christians formed anti-Balaka (“invincible” in Sango) and clashes have been taking place since then. A 2017 peace agreement between the government and all but one of the armed militias did little to stop the violence. Fighting continues despite a new agreement signed in February 2019 that gave government roles to some of the insurgent leaders. The government has extremely limited – if any – power outside Bangui, the capital.
Djotodia’s presidency lasted for less than a year. A UN-backed transitional government took over until the 2016 elections, which were generally regarded as credible despite some fraud, and which led to a peaceful transition of power. Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a former prime minister and mathematics professor, won the presidential election in a runoff. His opponent, Anicet-Georges Dologuélé, also a former prime minister, conceded and urged his supporters to accept the results peacefully. Political parties are weak – a large chunk of the National Assembly are independents, as is Touadéra (although he had previously been a member of Bozizé’s National Convergence “Kwa Na Kwa” (KNK) party).
Russia has ramped up its political and military involvement in exchange for mining rights. Last year, three Russian journalists from a newspaper critical of the Kremlin were killed in the country while they were investigating the role of the Wagner Group, a Russian military contractor, in exploiting the CAR’s mineral wealth. A Russian national is Touadéra’s national security advisor, and the Wagner Group handles Touadéra’s personal security detail.
Somalia Parliamentary and Presidential – due 2020 or 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 11.3 million (very rough estimate)
Somalia hasn’t held direct elections in 50 years at the federal level, and at the state level, only the de facto independent Somaliland holds one-person-one-vote polls. The other states have electoral colleges with clan elders as electors. Somalia has federal elections due in 2020 or 2021, and hopes to move toward a one-person-one-vote model. Politics – and conflict – throughout Somalia is largely based on clans, but efforts have been made to move toward a politics based on political parties. The terrorist group al-Shabab remains a menace.
Galmudug State, in central Somalia, is set to hold an indirect presidential election soon.
Uganda By-Elections in Hoima and Kaabong - September 26, 2019 (next general elections will be in February 2021)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Partly Free this year)
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 40.9 million
President Yoweri Museveni has held power since 1986 and looks likely to seek a sixth term. Musaveni is seen as an ally to Western governments on counterterrorism issues, despite concerns about human rights and civil liberties.
Musaveni’s National Resistance Movement (NRM), an authoritarian nationalist party, was originally a militia involved in the struggle to topple the government in 1986. In the last presidential election in 2016 (which was marred by an uneven playing field and government use of state resources and security services for political purposes), Kizza Besigye of the main opposition center-right Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) won 35.6 percent, coming in second. NRM holds 293 out of 426 seats in parliament, and FDC holds 36 (other opposition parties hold 21).
For the upcoming elections, 37-year-old pop star Bobi Wine has emerged as a leading opposition candidate.
Rwanda Local By-Elections - September 26, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: 12.2 million
Population: Presidential Republic
Senegal Presidential – February 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 15 million
Senegal is lauded as one of West Africa’s most stable democracies. However, there are some concerns that the political playing field is becoming less even under President Macky Sall, who was re-elected in the February 2019 presidential elections amid accusations that he had improperly used state resources to suppress opponents and bolster his campaign.
Senegal was supposed to have local elections in December 2019, but they have been postponed to late 2020.
The Gambia Presidential – December 1, 2016 and Legislative – April 6, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 2.1 million
In December 2016, The Gambia began a remarkable transition to democracy. Citizens removed dictator Yahya Jammeh – who had come to power in a coup and ruled for 22 years – peacefully, via the ballot box, in a surprising result. Opposition candidate Adama Barrow won the presidency with the backing of a coalition of seven opposition parties. The country then began the process of establishing democracy and recovering from Jammeh’s brutal dictatorship.
The Gambia is actually the country’s name (unlike, for example, Ukraine or Sudan, to which many people attach the definite article), after the River Gambia, which is a source of national pride.
Upcoming Elections
Mozambique Presidential, Legislative, and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 27.2 million
Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since then until an August 2019 peace accord). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.
Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth. Russia has ramped up its involvement in Mozambique’s energy and security sectors.
RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities. In the upcoming elections, in addition to voting for president, citizens will elect provincial governors directly for the first time – previously, they had been appointed by the president. A breakaway faction of RENAMO has threatened violence if the elections proceed, but the government has no plans to delay or cancel the polls.
Corinna Jentzsch, Foreign Affairs: “Peace Is a Losing Strategy in Mozambique: Why Elections Could Cause Another Civil War”
Botswana Parliamentary – October 23, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 2.2 million
Botswana, the world’s second-largest producer of diamonds, is a stable democracy with regular free, fair, credible elections. In 2018, President Ian Khama stepped down exactly 10 years after his inauguration, in keeping with the constitutional limit of two terms in office (his predecessor had done the same thing).
Mokgweetsi Masisi, the former vice president, is filling the role of the presidency until after the elections, when the National Assembly will choose a new president. Khama’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – founded by his father, Seretse Khama – has dominated politics since independence in 1966, but soon after leaving office, Khama left the BDP to support a new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front (BFP), which has ties to the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), Botswana’s main opposition coalition. The split has the opportunity to open up debate on actual policy, but it could devolve into a personal power struggle. There is concern that some of Botswana’s institutions are eroding.
The National Assembly will elect a new president following the parliamentary elections.
The Africa Report: “Botswana’s tight electoral contest presents unforeseen risks for Africa’s democracy poster child: In its 53 years in power, the governing party, the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) has never come this close to losing an election. True, it has seen its support dwindle over time, and most notably lost the popular vote in the last election in 2014.”
Ale-esi Makgekgenene, Southern Times (Namibia): “Botswana is celebrated as one of the oldest democracies in Africa and a model for the African continent. The countries politics, despite several undercurrents, is uniquely in Africa, generally devoid of drama. It has also had, until a few years ago, an enviable record in terms of the lack of corruption and its leaders have usually always been understated rather than florid….For the first time that anyone can remember, the BDP will be campaigning when the election outcome is not cut and dried. “
The Namibian: “Botswana elections – Khama brothers on opposite sides”
Tanzania Local – November 24, 2019 and General – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 55.5 million
Tanzania’s socialist Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and its predecessors have been in power since 1961. In the 2015 elections, deemed imperfect but credible by observers, John Magufuli won, and has since launched a crackdown on the opposition, media, civil society, and the private sector. The main opposition center-right Chadema, whose leader Freeman Mbowe recently spent nearly five months in prison on charges of sedition, currently holds 62 out of 384 seats in the unicameral National Assembly. Edward Lowassa, a former CCM prime minister who ran for president in 2015 as the candidate of Chadema and a coalition of other opposition parties, won 40 percent of the vote. Lowassa has since returned to CCM along with other opposition figures who have been bribed or bullied into crossing the aisle and joining the ruling party.
The Economist notes, “Today Tanzania is on the descent from patchy democracy towards slapdash dictatorship.”
Khalifa Said, The Citizen (Tanzania): “The coalition of civil society organisations launched its election manifesto for 2019/2020 here yesterday, giving priority to issues of human rights as well as inclusive and sustainable development….Taking place under the auspices of the Tanzania Human Rights Defenders Coalition (THRDC), this year’s CSOs’ election manifesto is the second after the coalition released its first manifesto four years ago for the 2015 general election. More than 90 CSOs contributed in the making of the manifesto, according to drafters, and it covers a wide range of important policy issues.”
Reuters: “The lawyer for a prominent Tanzanian journalist arrested more than two months ago called on Tuesday on President John Magufuli to pardon him as a court postponed a hearing into his case for a sixth time.”
Nigeria Kogi and Bayelsa State Governorships and Niger State Local Government – November 16, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Party Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: Nigeria – 203.5 million; Kogi State – 3.1 million; Bayelsa State – 1.7 million; Niger State – 4 million (Nigeria’s largest state)
Nigeria, the “Giant of Africa,” as Nigerians call the continent’s most populous country, has a history of military coups, and since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international and Nigerian observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.
The two main political parties are the “sort-of-right” People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and “sort-of-left” All Progressives Congress (APC), plus a plethora of smaller parties. Historically, PDP has been strong in Christian areas and in the south, while APC has been strong in the mostly-Muslim north. Nigeria is about half Christian and half Muslim, and there is some religious conflict, but religion is not the only driver of conflict in the country. There is a handshake agreement that the presidency will rotate between the north and the south every eight years, regardless of which party wins; thus, for the 2019 election, both major parties chose candidates from the north. PDP nominated Atiku Abubakar to challenge APC incumbent Muhammadu Buhari, who won narrowly. APC also won a majority in the legislature.
A debate over federalism played a major role in Nigeria’s February 2019 general elections. Atiku advocated for a greater devolution of powers to state governments, a proposal that Buhari categorically opposed. Political power is currently highly centralized, but many argue that it is dysfunctional.
Voters in 29 of Nigeria’s 36 states elected governors during the general elections in February 2019. Bayelsa State in the southern oil-producing Niger Delta, and Kogi State in the Middle Belt have gubernatorial elections in mid-November. (The Middle Belt is a largely-agricultural area that forms the border between the mostly-Muslim north and mostly Christian south, and the site of a deadly conflict between farmers and herders.) PDP currently control Bayelsa (and 13 other states), and APC currently controls the remaining states, including Kogi. These state elections are taking place in the context of continued litigation over the national elections. Atiku has challenged his defeat in court, alleging electoral fraud. A tribunal rejected his complaint, but he is expected to appeal.
New Telegraph (Nigeria): “Ahead of the Bayelsa State governorship poll, a pall of disquiet has enveloped the All Progressives Congress (APC) as members tango in a battle with a former governor of the state, Chief Timipre Sylva, over the party’s candidate, Mr. David Lyon.”
Reuters: “Nigerian activist and former presidential candidate Omoyele Sowore pleaded not guilty at a court in Abuja on Monday to charges of treason, money laundering and harassing the president. State Security Service agents arrested Sowore in early August after he called for a revolution after a February election which he said was not credible. He ran for president in that election, in which former military ruler President Muhammadu Buhari secured a second term in office.”
John Campbell, Council on Foreign Relations: “Drivers of Nigerian Kidnapping Morph From Politics to Poverty”
Guinea-Bissau Presidential – November 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 1.8 million
In March 2019, Guinea-Bissau finally held long-delayed legislative elections. The ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) won 47 out of 102 seats, but made deals with three smaller parties to form a coalition with 54 seats. Prone to coups (most recently in 2012), no elected leader has served a full term since independence from Portugal. The country remains in a political crisis, with President José Mário Vaz (known as Jomav) in a feud with his own party (PAIGC). Vaz plans to run for re-election. Sometimes dubbed “the world’s first narco-state,” it risks once again becoming a hub for drug traffickers.
AFP: “Nineteen candidates, including incumbent Jose Mario Vaz, have filed applications to contest upcoming presidential elections in the crisis-ridden West African state of Guinea-Bissau, according to the official list unveiled on Thursday [September 26]. The vote has been pencilled for November 24, although the date is highly uncertain because of a strike in the judiciary, which approves applications.”
UN News: “Guinea-Bissau spotlights threats of organized crime, Sahel terrorism in speech to UN Assembly”
Chad Legislative and Local – Due 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 15.8 million
Idriss Déby seized power in a rebellion in 1990, and although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote. Western governments, particularly France, view the Déby regime as a security partner in countering terrorism in the region, and provide military aid. Opposition activists face arrest and mistreatment. There are concerns that the regime uses counterterrorism as an excuse for suppressing legitimate political opposition.
The mandate of the current National Assembly expired in 2015, and the elections have been delayed multiple times. In 2018, President Idriss Déby announced that the elections would happen in the “first half of 2019,” without giving a date, but in May 2019, the government delayed the elections indefinitely again, citing cost. The opposition holds that the real issue is a lack of political will. The government had said that elections will be held by a September deadline, but the deadline passed and the elections did not happen.
Mathiew Olivier, Jeune Afrique (in French): “A new commission was set up on Tuesday 24 September in the National Framework for Political Dialogue. Its objective: to revise the Chadian electoral code and to promote legislative elections before early 2020….The date of the legislative elections has been in the center of debate for several months. Idriss Deby Itno has indeed announced that he wants to hold the polls no later than January 2020.”
Blaise Dariustone, DW (in French): “For many election observers and experts, going to elections in December or January is not realistic because much remains to be done. The electoral code must be revised, the electoral census organized, the electoral body summoned and the electoral campaign organized. Part of the opposition even threatens to suspend its participation in the process if the CENI validates the schedule imposed by the head of state.”
Guinea Legislative – 2019 and Presidential – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.9 million
Elections in Guinea routinely see significant delays and have historically been surrounded by ethnic tensions and violence. President Alpha Condé, a former opposition leader who came to power in 2010 following a transition from military to civilian rule, is prevented by the constitution from running for a third term in the presidential polls due in 2020. However, he wants to change the constitution to allow him to do so (which Russia is encouraging because Russian companies have mining interests in Guinea). The terms of the current legislators expired in January 2019. Condé extended their mandates, and a new election date has not been set.
AFP: “President Alpha Conde of Guinea has called on the public to prepare for a referendum and elections, stirring speculation that he will seek to overcome a constitutional ban on a third term in office….Conde is a former opposition figure who came to power in 2010, becoming the first democratically-elected president of Guinea, an impoverished former French colony in West Africa. But he has also been criticised for deadly use of gunfire by police to quell demonstrations. Scores have been killed, according to the opposition.”
Stratfor: “If Conde pushes for another term in spite of the current two-term limit, it would likely mobilize Guinea’s opposition, paving the way for potentially destabilizing violence that could disrupt business activity.”
AP: “10 years after Guinea stadium massacre, justice is elusive”
Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – Early 2020 (delayed from October 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 25.6 million
Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.
Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat. The political crisis has an ethnic dimension.
Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections, which are likely delayed following a July vote by the National Assembly to extend its term in office (the National Assembly’s second extension). The mandates were set to expire October 29, 2019 and have been extended for two months, so the elections that had been due in October most likely will not happen before 2020.
AFP: “Cameroon starts a national dialogue on Monday [September 30] in a bid to end a separatist conflict in the country’s anglophone provinces though key rebel leaders have already refused to participate.”
Moli Edwin Kindzeka, VOA: “Separatist Leaders Shun Cameroon’s ‘National Dialogue’”
Silja Fröhlich and Dirke Köpp, DW: “Who are Cameroon’s self-named Ambazonia secessionists? Two years ago secessionists earmarked Cameroon’s English-speaking regions for a new African nation, they named Ambazonia. But their pursuit for self-rule has led to death and destruction of civilians in the crosshairs.”
R. Maxwell Bone and AKem Kelvin Nkwain, African Arguments: “When it was announced that President Biya would deliver a special address to the nation, many hoped he would signal a change of course. Instead, he denied the existence of longstanding grievances and the role his government’s violent actions have had in leading to today’s deadly war. It is clear that the national dialogue, which begins today, will not differ from those carried out in the past.”
Claire Hazbun and Ken Opalo, Foreign Policy: “Cameroon Must Make Concessions to End the Anglophone Crisis: President Paul Biya won’t get anywhere without engaging directly with separatist grievances.”
Paul-Simon Handy, Institute for Security Studies: “Done properly, national dialogue could stabilise Cameroon”
Journal du Cameroun: “The detained leader of the Cameroon Renaissance Movement Maurice Kamto has raised doubts over the ability of UN Secretary General to help find solutions to the crises in Cameroon.”
Illaria Allegrozzi, Human Rights Watch: “Hard Lessons in Cameroon: Discussing Current Events Lands Teacher in Jail”
Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 108.4 million
In 1974, communist rebels deposed Ethiopia’s Emperor Haile Selassie and instituted the Derg (“Committee”), a Marxist military junta led by Mengistu Haile Mariam, which brought forth famines and a collapse of Ethiopia’s economy. It governed brutally, even genocidally. Following a civil war, the Derg was ousted in 1991 by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a coalition of ethnically-based rebel militias. The EPRDF took power and morphed into a coalition of four ethnically-based political parties: Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Amhara Democratic Party (ADP), Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), and Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM). In power, EPRDF instituted a controversial ethnically-based federalist system that has led to a current climate of tension and unrest.
EPRDF has held elections regularly, but aside from the 2005 polls, none were competitive or credible. In the last elections, in 2015, the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats. However, following three years of protests, the EPRDF chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister in 2018. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners, opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space, and holding free and fair elections in 2020. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles, including entrenched opposition to democracy within EPRDF. However, ongoing ethnic conflict could threaten Abiy’s reforms. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful.
AP: “The office of Ethiopia‘s attorney general says more than 1,200 people have been killed and more than 1.2 million displaced in clashes in the country over the past year. The clashes, mostly along ethnic lines, have continued to strain the reforms announced by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed after he took office in April 2018.”
Burundi Presidential and Legislative – May 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.8 million
Burundi’s 12-year civil war ended in 2005, but since then, President Pierre Nkurunziza has turned the country into a dictatorship that former U.N. rights chief Zeid Raad al-Hussein described as one of “the most prolific slaughterhouses of humans in recent times.” In 2015, Nkurunziza ran for a third term, a move critics said was unconstitutional. Nkurunziza’s decision sparked a political crisis, and the election was marred by violence and a coup attempt. Nkurunziza won. Nonetheless, some opposition lawmakers did take their seats in parliament.
The upcoming elections are taking place in a climate of fear, with citizens, and especially opposition and civil society activists, being terrorized by state security apparatus and the Imbonerakure, a youth militia connected to Nkurunziza’s National Council for the Defense of Democracy–Forces for the Defense of Democracy party (a party that in fact does the opposite of defending democracy). Nkurunziza has said he would step down in 2020, but some are concerned that he will run for a fourth term. There are also fears that Nkurunziza – a former Hutu rebel commander – is ethnicizing the country’s politics, which could reignite conflict.
Ineke Mules, DW: “’Climate of fear’ worsens in Burundi: Bishops have accused authorities of violently persecuting opponents, as the government continues to reject repeated claims of human rights abuses. Since 2015, at least 1,200 people have been killed in political clashes.”
Catholic News Agency: “Burundi official calls for laicization of bishops over election message”
AFP: “Burundi’s senate president has come under fire over recorded remarks of him placing a price on the head of a man accused of training militias at the height of the country’s 2015 political crisis. In comments recorded earlier in September, verified by AFP Thursday, senate chief Reverien Ndikuriyo, admitted he offered 2,450 euros ($2,600) for a former soldier he accused of providing military training to be brought to him ‘dead or alive.’”
Paul Nantulya, Africa Center for Strategic Studies: “Burundi, the Forgotten Crisis, Still Burns: Although Nkurunziza has suppressed external reporting on Burundi, the country’s 4-year-old political and humanitarian crisis shows no signs of abating.”
Côte d’Ivoire Presidential and Legislative – October 31, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 26.3 million
These elections are taking place in a heated political context, and the personalities gearing up to contest the presidential election have been fixtures in Côte d’Ivoire’s politics since the death of Félix Houphouët-Boigny, who served as Côte d’Ivoire’s president from independence in 1960 until his death in 1993.
Until 1999, the country was stable and seen as a model of economic prosperity in the region, but two civil wars – first beginning in1999 and the second ending in 2011 – have created political instability, although the economy remains strong as Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s largest producer of cocoa beans..
Democratization began in 1990, and Houphouët-Boigny and his Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire – African Democratic Rally (PDCI-RDA) trounced Laurent Gbagbo and the socialist Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) in the first multi-party elections that year. Following Houphouët-Boigny’s death, Henri Konan Bédié, then speaker of the National Assembly and a member of PDCI-RDA, became president after a brief struggle with then-Prime Minister Prime Minister Alassane Ouattara, a technocrat who had joined PDCI-RDA. Ouattara then took a job abroad with the International Monetary Fund and joined the liberal Rally of Republicans (RDR) party. Bédié was deposed in a military coup in 1999, which kicked off the first civil war.
Houpouët-Boigny’s development of cocoa farming planted the seeds of the conflict. He had a policy of encouraging immigrant laborers from neighboring Burkina Faso, and now Burkinabés, as these families are called, constitute 30 percent of the country’s population. In the mid- and late-1990s, politicians pushed the idea of Ivoirité, a concept that imagines national identity as fundamentally southern and Christian.
Gbagbo lost the 2010 election to Ouattara, but he refused to step down even though the international community recognized Ouattara’s victory. The surrounding violence led to 3,000 deaths and half a million displaced people. Gbagbo was arrested four months after the polls and charged with war crimes (he was acquitted in 2019, but the prosecution is appealing the verdict). In 2015, Ouattara won re-election in relatively peaceful and credible polls. Gbagbo and Bédié had a meeting in Brussels in July 2019 that sparked rumors about a possible alliance ahead of the 2020 elections.
Leanne de Bassompierre, Bloomberg: “Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara is in favor of “handing over to the new generation” in next year’s presidential polls, but did not rule out running in the election. The 78-year-old, who has just over a year left of his second term in office, was addressing reporters in his hometown of Dimbokro after a four-day visit to the surrounding region.”
BBC (in French): “The 15 members of the Central Commission of the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) of Côte d’Ivoire are now known. The list of the 15 Central Commissioners of the new IEC was unveiled Wednesday at the exceptional cabinet meeting in Dimbokro.”
The Economist: “Ivory Coast’s economy is booming, but its politics look wobbly. An election next year risks pushing the country back into conflict.”
Ghana Presidential and Legislative – December 7, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 28.1 million
Ghana’s two main political parties, the center-right New Patriotic Party (NPP) and center-left National Democratic Congress (NDC), have alternated stints in power since Ghana began holding multiparty elections. Ghana is often cited as a success story for democratic transition, despite some lingering issues.
Although each party has bases of support in certain regions or ethnic groups, the parties define themselves by ideology and campaign on issues. In the 2016 presidential polls, NPP’s Nana Akufo-Addo defeated incumbent John Mahama from the NDC following a contentious campaign. Eleven parties competed in the parliamentary elections, but only the NPP and the NDC won seats, with the NPP winning a majority.
Isaac Kaledzi and Ineke Mules, DW: “Ghanaian authorities say they have detained three suspects over an alleged plot to destabilize the country. The news came as a surprise to security analysts, considering Ghana’s reputation as a stable democracy.”
Sally Hayden, Irish Times: “Ghanaian citizens have been casting doubt on the severity of the coup attempt, posting joking messages on social media saying they are planning a coup with implements such as a spatula, a tongs, a mop, a sweeping brush and insecticide spray, while using the hashtag #CoupChallenge.”
APA: “Ghana’s ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) is voting on Saturday {September 28] in 100 orphan constituencies in parliamentary primaries to elect parliamentary candidates for the 2020 general election.The orphan constituencies are those constituencies in which the ruling NPP has no sitting Member of Parliament (MP) or is occupied by the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC).”
Central African Republic General – December 27, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 5.4 million
The Central African Republic (CAR) faces a humanitarian crisis and a crisis of governance. The country has been gripped by sectarian clashes since 2013, when Seleka (“alliance” in Sango, a local language) Muslim insurgents forced President François Bozizé from office and installed Michel Djotodia, a Muslim and a northerner. Exact estimates of the country’s religious breakdown vary, but CAR is more than 80 percent Christian and animist and about 10-15 percent Muslim, and southern Christians had held the presidency since independence from France in 1960. A group of southern Christians formed anti-Balaka (“invincible” in Sango) and clashes have been taking place since then. A 2017 peace agreement between the government and all but one of the armed militias did little to stop the violence. Fighting continues despite a new agreement signed in February 2019 that gave government roles to some of the insurgent leaders. The government has extremely limited – if any – power outside Bangui, the capital.
Djotodia’s presidency lasted for less than a year. A UN-backed transitional government took over until the 2016 elections, which were generally regarded as credible despite some fraud, and which led to a peaceful transition of power. Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a former prime minister and mathematics professor, won the presidential election in a runoff. His opponent, Anicet-Georges Dologuélé, also a former prime minister, conceded and urged his supporters to accept the results peacefully. Political parties are weak – a large chunk of the National Assembly are independents, as is Touadéra (although he had previously been a member of Bozizé’s National Convergence “Kwa Na Kwa” (KNK) party).
Russia has ramped up its political and military involvement in exchange for mining rights. Last year, three Russian journalists from a newspaper critical of the Kremlin were killed in the country while they were investigating the role of the Wagner Group, a Russian military contractor, in exploiting the CAR’s mineral wealth. A Russian national is Touadéra’s national security advisor, and the Wagner Group handles Touadéra’s personal security detail.
Dionne Searcey, New York Times: “Diamonds, Warlords and Mercenaries: Russia’s New Playbook in Africa – After meddling in the 2016 American election, Russia is using similar tactics in the Central African Republic. But as it sows political chaos, this time it is also seeking diamonds.”
UN News: “Central African Republic: Three UN peacekeepers killed, fourth injured following helicopter crash”
Somalia Parliamentary and Presidential – due 2020 or 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 11.3 million (very rough estimate)
Somalia hasn’t held direct elections in 50 years at the federal level, and at the state level, only the de facto independent Somaliland holds one-person-one-vote polls. The other states have electoral colleges with clan elders as electors. Somalia has federal elections due in 2020 or 2021, and hopes to move toward a one-person-one-vote model. Politics – and conflict – throughout Somalia is largely based on clans, but efforts have been made to move toward a politics based on political parties. The terrorist group al-Shabab remains a menace.
Galmudug State, in central Somalia, is set to hold an indirect presidential election soon.
Abdi Tawane and Mohamed Dube, The East African: “How Gulf geopolitics are turning Somalia into a theatre of the absurd: More than 50 political parties (mostly based in Mogadishu) have been registered by the electoral body ahead of the next elections to replace clan-based politics. This is a major step towards a return to democracy and a sign of enthusiasm for multi-party politics in Somalia and would make the upcoming presidential election campaign more intense than the preceding ones.”
Reuters: “The U.S. military said on Monday that U.S. and partnered forces had killed 10 militants and destroyed a vehicle after Somali insurgents mounted an ambitious attack on a base where U.S. special forces train Somali commandos.”
Past Elections
Uganda By-Elections in Hoima and Kaabong – September 26, 2019 (next general elections will be in February 2021)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Partly Free this year)
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 40.9 million
President Yoweri Museveni has held power since 1986 and looks likely to seek a sixth term. Musaveni is seen as an ally to Western governments on counterterrorism issues, despite concerns about human rights and civil liberties.
Musaveni’s National Resistance Movement (NRM), an authoritarian nationalist party, was originally a militia involved in the struggle to topple the government in 1986. In the last presidential election in 2016 (which was marred by an uneven playing field and government use of state resources and security services for political purposes), Kizza Besigye of the main opposition center-right Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) won 35.6 percent, coming in second. NRM holds 293 out of 426 seats in parliament, and FDC holds 36 (other opposition parties hold 21).
For the upcoming elections, 37-year-old pop star Bobi Wine has emerged as a leading opposition candidate.
Charles M. Mpagi, The East African: “Two by-elections took place in Hoima this past week, presenting a litmus test for both the ruling National Resistance Movement and the opposition parties in Uganda exactly 15 months before the 2021 general elections….The Hoima elections helped put into perspective some critical questions for political observers such as whether the opposition can, after failed previous efforts forge a meaningful joint effort to challenge and fight the advantages of the incumbency including protecting their vote.”
The Observer (Uganda): “NRM wins Hoima, Kaabong by-elections”
Sally Hayden, Irish Times: “Ugandans went to the polls in the country’s west on Thursday [September 26] in a byelection which saw popstar-turned-opposition politician Bobi Wine go head to head with long-standing president Yoweri Museveni….The two men backed opposing candidates. Mr Museveni backed his National Resistance Movement party’s Harriet Businge Mugenyi, while Mr Wine backed Asinansi Nyakato, of the Forum for Democratic Change party.”
Reuters: “Ugandan pop star and presidential hopeful Bobi Wine has denounced the government’s banning of civilian use of red berets, a symbol of his ‘People Power’ movement that he hopes to use to oust longtime President Yoweri Museveni.”
Rwanda Local By-Elections – September 26, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: 12.2 million
Population: Presidential Republic
Régis Umurengezi, The New Times (Rwanda): “Voters in 23 sectors in 13 districts across the country today [September 26] headed to polling stations in elections to fill vacant positions on district councils following a recent spate of resignations of district mayors and their deputies. The mass exits saw up to 23 local government officials, including five mayors, quit their positions in what the Government attributed to failure to deliver on their responsibilities.”
Jane Flanagan, The Australian: “Two killers on a motorbike stabbed a senior opposition figure to death in the latest in a wave of murders and kidnappings of government critics in Rwanda. Syldio Dusabumuremyi, 42, was the sixth FDU-Inkingi party member to have been killed or ‘disappeared’ in the past three years, with nine others languishing in jail accused of ‘terrorism’ in the repressive East African state.”
Jason Burke, The Guardian: “Victoire Ingabire, the party’s leader, said Monday’s attack was aimed at preventing her party from winning official recognition. ‘They want to prevent me from creating an opposition party … This killing has no other implications other than intimidating Rwandans from participating in politics of their country,’ she said.”
Senegal Presidential – February 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 15 million
Senegal is lauded as one of West Africa’s most stable democracies. However, there are some concerns that the political playing field is becoming less even under President Macky Sall, who was re-elected in the February 2019 presidential elections amid accusations that he had improperly used state resources to suppress opponents and bolster his campaign.
Senegal was supposed to have local elections in December 2019, but they have been postponed to late 2020.
BBC: “Senegal’s president has pardoned the former mayor of the capital city Dakar, who was jailed for five years in 2018 on corruption charges. Khalifa Sall was arrested in March 2017 for allegedly embezzling $3 million (£2.4m) in public funds.”
France24: “A popular politician, Khalifa Sall has always believed that the case brought against him was a political move to prevent him from standing in this year’s presidential election against Macky Sall [no relation], who has been in power since 2012. That claim is denied by officials.”
The Gambia Presidential – December 1, 2016 and Legislative – April 6, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 2.1 million
In December 2016, The Gambia began a remarkable transition to democracy. Citizens removed dictator Yahya Jammeh – who had come to power in a coup and ruled for 22 years – peacefully, via the ballot box, in a surprising result. Opposition candidate Adama Barrow won the presidency with the backing of a coalition of seven opposition parties. The country then began the process of establishing democracy and recovering from Jammeh’s brutal dictatorship.
The Gambia is actually the country’s name (unlike, for example, Ukraine or Sudan, to which many people attach the definite article), after the River Gambia, which is a source of national pride.
APA: “Gambia’s president Adama Barrow has been given the nod by the political coalition which hoisted him as their standard bearer in the 2016 presidential election to remain in office for a full five-year term.The coalition’s chairwoman Fatoumatta Tambajang emerged from hours of a closed-door meeting with President Barrow at State House on Friday, with confirmation that its members have granted his wish for a full term.”
The Year Ahead: Africa
Guinea legislative (overdue – mandates of current legislators expired January 13 – date not set for new elections); Chad legislative (originally due in 2015 but have been delayed several times – unclear when they will. actually happen); Cameroon parliamentary (due October but delayed – new date not set); Mozambique presidential, legislative, provincial (October 15); Botswana parliamentary (October 23); Kenya parliamentary by-election in Kibra (November 7); Nigeria Kogi and Bayelsa state, plus Niger State local government (November 16); Guinea-Bissau presidential (November 24); Namibia presidential and legislative (November 27); Madagascar local (November 27); Mauritius presidential and parliamentary (December); Guinea-Bissau presidential runoff (December 8); Cameroon parliamentary and local (early 2020 – postponed from October 2019); Comoros parliamentary (January); Togo presidential (April); Ethiopia parliamentary (May); Burundi presidential and legislative (May 20); Somalia, Somaliland congressional and local (November 1, 2019 – tentative); Guinea-Bissau presidential (November 24); Namibia presidential and legislative (November 27); Mauritius legislative (December); Senegal local (December 1); Ethiopia parliamentary (May); Burundi presidential and legislative (May 20); Mali Parliamentary (due June but postponed indefinitely)
Anglophone separatists march in Cameroon. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Lambisc (CC BY-SA 3.0)
21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.
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Category: This Week Tags: Botswana, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mozambique, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Somalia, Tanzania, Uganda