Upcoming Elections
Argentina Mendoza Provincial – September 29 and Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 – Throughout the year
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 44.7 million
On the presidential front: Incumbent Mauricio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.
In the primaries on August 11, 2019, in which voters must select both a preferred party and a preferred candidate, Fernández and Kirchner won an unexpectedly high 47 percent of the vote, compared with Macri’s 33 percent. Inflation spiked following the primaries.
Mendoza Provincial
Mark P. Jones, Forbes: “On September 29 the Argentine province of Mendoza will elect its governor and renew one-half of its bicameral legislature. Mendoza is Argentina’s fifth most populous province, and one of only five provinces (out of 24) currently governed by a member of President Mauricio Macri’s Together for Change alliance.”
Buenos Aires Times: “Victory for the incumbent Radical provincial administration would revive Mauricio Macri’s faltering chances of re-election, shattered after trailing his Frente de Todos rival Alberto Fernández by over 15 points in last month’s PASO primaries. Conversely, an opposition triumph from the nation’s fifth-largest electorate would boost the latter’s momentum to an almost irreversible degree.”
National Elections
Reuters: “Argentine President Mauricio Macri told a crowd of thousands of supporters on Saturday [September 28] that he could still turn the tide and win the upcoming presidential election, despite his main opponent’s wide lead.”
Andrés Velasco, Project Syndicate: “Argentina’s Recurring Nightmare: Argentine President Mauricio Macri seems almost certain to lose his country’s presidential election next month, after committing the same kinds of economic-policy mistakes that so many of his Peronist predecessors made. It is a tragic and catastrophically disappointing denouement.”
MercoPress: “Women dressed as Eva Peron, old political anthems blaring in the streets, flash-mobs with step-perfect choreography – it’s all part of the present-day cut and thrust of politics in Buenos Aires….Hundreds of ‘Evitas’ have featured in recent protests across the city, complete with 1930s-era pastel dresses and hair buns that were the hallmark of the actress-turned-first lady.”
Andrew Chatzky, Council on Foreign Relations: “A sovereign default would be Argentina’s ninth, a staggering tally for a country that was richer than France, Germany, and Italy just over a century ago. The move, along with recent primary results that cast doubt on President Mauricio Macri’s reelection prospects, may augur another shakeup in Argentina’s perennially unstable politics.”
Andres Oppenheimer, Miami Herald: “Venezuelans warn Argentines against voting for leftists, but few seem to be listening | Opinion”
Bolivia General – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.3 million
Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates. A court banned the publication of polls showing Morales may face a runoff.
Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS) currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.
Santiago Limachi, David Mercado, Reuters: “In Bolivia’s fire-ravaged lowlands, a caravan of indigenous protesters is marching hundreds of miles to demand President Evo Morales declare a surge in wildfires a national disaster, a move they hope will unleash international aid.”
Manuela Lavinas Picq, New York Times: “Mr. Morales, who is running for a controversial fourth term, dismissed environmentalists’ concerns and marches in five cities as the ‘electoral nuisance of small groups.’ One of his cabinet ministers, Juan Ramón Quintana, ruled out the declaration of a national disaster, claiming the fires were not uniform and did not affect enough people. Chiquitanos say the president intentionally let forests burn to ashes because the region holds little electoral value for him.”
Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
Population: 35.9 million
The election will be a competitive contest between the center-right Conservatives and incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s center-left Liberals. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Most recently, photos emerged of Trudeau in brownface, which hurt the Liberals’ polling numbers.
Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.
The Northwest Territories Legislative Assembly elections are Monday, October 1. The Assembly has been nonpartisan since 1905, so all 19 members are elected as independents.
AFP: “Conservatives led by rookie Andrew Scheer edged into the lead against beleaguered Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, which shed support to smaller leftist rivals less than a month from Canada’s general election, according to polls Tuesday [September 24]. The two parties had been neck and neck at the start of the campaign.”
BBC: “Canada election round-up: Has the blackface scandal cost Trudeau?”
Beatrice Britneff and Megan Robinson, Global News (Canada): “‘I just don’t feel there’s anyone good’: Canada’s undecided voters know what they want, but not who.”
Grace Shao, CNBC: “No matter who takes the top job in Canada at the next elections, the new government will likely have to take a harder line on China, analysts say.”
Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.2 million
Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections, with at least seven mayoral candidates murdered.
Sophie Foggin, Bogota Post: “A forecast of Colombia’s upcoming local elections: Colombia Risk Analysis provides insight into key issues, candidates, and regions in the country’s 2019 local elections.”
Adriaan Alsema, Colombia Reports: “Candidates from the left and right are trailing Bogota‘s two centrist candidates, Claudia Lopez and Carlos Fernando Galan. According to pollster Yanhaas, Galan is now leading the race for the second most powerful position in the country with the support of 31%.”
Haiti Local and Partial Parliamentary (one third of the Senate and the entire lower house) – Due October 2019 (delay highly likely)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 10.8 million
Haiti is in a political crisis. Political chaos related to allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. A commission found that the election had indeed been fraudulent, and ordered a re-reun, which had only 18 percent turnout. President Moïse Jovenel was elected with 56 percent of ballots cast. The opposition alleged fraud once again, but an election tribunal conducted an investigation and certified the results. Violent protesters have demanded the president’s ouster. The 2015-2016 parliamentary elections were also marred by significant fraud. Opposition lawmakers blocked multiple attempts to ratify a new prime minister and have demanded Jovenel’s resignation.
Johnny Simon, Quartz: “A terrifying scene unfolded in the Haitian capital of Port-Au-Prince yesterday [September 23[ when a senator arriving at parliament brandished a pistol and fired warning shots amid a crowd of protesters. Associated Press photojournalist Dieu Nalio Chery—whose images of the event are included in this story—was among those injured in the chaos.”
Jacqueline Charles, Miami Herald: “Anti-government demonstrations demanding the resignation of Haitian President Jovenel Moïse escalated Friday [September 27] in Haiti, as protesters throughout the country burned tires, erected barricades and ransacked and pillaged police stations and set businesses on fire.”
Sandra Lemaire, VOA: “U.S. Deputy Secretary of State John J. Sullivan met with Haitian Foreign Minister Bocchit Edmond on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York for talks that included Haiti’s ongoing political crisis. ‘The deputy secretary and the foreign minister reaffirmed the strength of the U.S.-Haiti partnership and shared hope that Haiti’s political stakeholders would soon identify a path to forming a government that remains firmly rooted in democracy and the rule of law,’ State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said of the Thursday meeting.”
Dominica Legislative – December 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 74,027
Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit’s center-left Dominica Labour Party (DLP) has been in government since 2000. DLP lost seats following the 2014 parliamentary elections, but with 15 out of 21 seats still has a substantial majority. The main opposition United Workers’ Party (UWP) led by Lennox Linton has six seats. Home of the famous Boiling Lake, the world’s second-largest hot spring, rare birds, and natural beauty, the country has the potential to develop its tourism industry, but the lack of a major international airport has impeded growth. The debate over whether to build one has been going on for decades, and is a major issue in the upcoming elections. Skerrit has been slow-rolling a decision on whether and how to build one, and some oppose the idea entirely.
The Antigua Observer: “CANA is reporting that Dominica’s main opposition United Workers Party (UWP) Wednesday announced plans for a campaign of civil disobedience in support of electoral reform as well getting the relevant authorities to probe allegations that EC$1.2 billion (One EC dollar=US$0.37 cents) have been missing from the controversial Citizenship by Investment (CBI) programme.”
Guyana Provincial and Snap Parliamentary – March 2, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 741,000
Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil.
In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation delayed the process. After months of back-and-forth, Granger announced that the election would take place on March 2, 2020.
Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese.
Argus Blog: “Guyana will hold parliamentary elections on 2 March 2020, around the time that ExxonMobil plans to launch offshore oil production that promises to transform the economy of the tiny South American country. The ruling People’s National Congress (PNC) party that has overseen the advent of oil development faces a close challenge from the main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), which has pledged to toughen oil contract terms.”
Frances Jenner, Latin America Reports: “The century-old land dispute between Guyana and Venezuela continues: Accusations against Juan Guaidó have resurfaced the debate over the rightful ownership of the Esquibo region.”
Venezuela Legislative – December 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: 31.7 million
Venezuela is currently in a political crisis following disputed presidential elections in May 2018. Incumbent Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez’s protege, was declared the winner, but the elections were widely denounced as illegitimate and the opposition mostly boycotted the polls. Because Venezuela’s constitution stipulates that the leader of the National Assembly (Venezuela’s only institution with a modicum of democratic legitimacy) becomes interim president if the office is vacant, many of the world’s free democracies recognized Juan Guaidó as interim president until the country holds new elections. Maduro continues to cling to power and his forces are violently cracking down on the opposition. The regime has deployed death squads. However, the opposition perseveres. National Assembly elections are not due until December 2020, but Maduro has threatened to hold early elections, which would likely be neither free nor fair and would deprive the opposition of the one institution it controls.
The country is also in a humanitarian crisis. The capital, Caracas, is one of the most violent cities in the world. Hyperinflation has resulted in 90 percent of Venezuelans being unable to afford sufficient food, and as many as 3.4 million people (more than 10 percent of the population) have fled since 2015.
Uri Friedman, The Atlantic: “Venezuela’s Struggle for Legitimacy Comes to New York: ’It’s a do-or-die moment for every Venezuelan.’”
Nicole Gaouette, CNN: “US and Latin America move to keep spotlight and pressure on Venezuela”
Joshua Goodman, AP: “The Trump administration is more than tripling U.S. support for pro-democracy work in Venezuela and for the first time directly funding opposition leader Juan Guaidó as he attempts to set up a government to rival the socialist administration of Nicolás Maduro.”
Peru Presidential and Legislative – April 2021 (President wants to move them to April 19, 2020)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 31.3 milllion
Reuters: “Peruvian opposition lawmakers shelved a snap election proposal from centrist President Martin Vizcarra on Thursday [September 26], knocking the country’s sol currency and setting the stage for a new bout of political upheaval in one of Latin America’s most stable markets.”
Reuters: “Peru’s centrist president, Martin Vizcarra, on Friday [September 27] announced he would ask for a vote of confidence from the opposition-run Congress that would empower him to dismiss lawmakers if it is rejected. The move aims to end an acrimonious power struggle between the executive and Vizcarra’s government and could lead to a protracted constitutional crisis if lawmakers resist.”
Carolina Wilson and John Quigley, Bloomberg: “Latin America has long suffered from leaders who clung on to power at any cost, trampling democratic institutions in the process. Peru’s current leader is proposing the exact opposite. After months of tussling with the opposition-controlled Congress over his anti-graft program, President Martin Vizcarra said in an interview that the best option is to call early presidential and parliamentary elections in 2020, in which he won’t be a candidate, to give the country a fresh start.”
The Economist: “The war against corruption in Latin America is in trouble”
Past Elections
Guatemala General, Second Round – August 11, 2019 (first round was June 16)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.6 million
These elections took place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.
In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.
AP: “Guatemala’s congress has created a committee to review, and potentially reverse, work done by a U.N.-backed anti-corruption mission during the past 12 years.”
Transparency International: “Anti-corruption sentiment in Latin America and the Caribbean has grown over the past several years, as people experience the many ways in which corruption undermines integrity and accountability in politics. The Global Corruption Barometer – Latin America and the Caribbean 2019 points to a substantial lack of political integrity among political figures and institutions, as well as around electoral processes, which weakens the foundations of democracies and leads to mistrust in government leaders.”
Brazil General – October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: 208.8 million
Last year’s elections in Brazil swept controversial right-wing populist firebrand Jair Bolsonaro into the presidency, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country. Brazil holds local elections next year.
Michael Royster, Rio Times: “As noted in a prior column, Jair Bolsonaro’s 2018 campaign platform stated that he would NOT be a candidate for re-election if he won. Recent events have shown he does not intend to honor that pledge. If there were still any lingering doubts about Bolsonaro’s intentions, he dispelled them, albeit sub silentio, by his speech at the opening of the UN General Assembly.”
Mac Margolis, Bloomberg: “Bolsonaro’s Culture Wars Hit Brazil’s Cinemas: Not long ago ultraconservative Brazilian voters fed up with the rotten political class came out of the closet to help elect a leader they could call their own. The result was right-wing Jair Bolsonaro and a deepening culture war. Now the ideological battles that have poisoned public discourse and set Brazilian against Brazilian have reached the cineplex.”
Americas This Week – September 28, 2019
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Last Updated: October 8, 2019 by 21votes
September 28, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore the Americas on Saturdays. Click the map pins.
Argentina Mendoza Provincial - September 29 and Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 – Throughout the year
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 44.7 million
On the presidential front: Incumbent Mauricio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.
In the primaries on August 11, 2019, in which voters must select both a preferred party and a preferred candidate, Fernández and Kirchner won an unexpectedly high 47 percent of the vote, compared with Macri’s 33 percent. Inflation spiked following the primaries.
Bolivia General – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.3 million
Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates. A court banned the publication of polls showing Morales may face a runoff.
Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS) currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.
Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
Population: 35.9 million
The election will be a competitive contest between the center-right Conservatives and incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s center-left Liberals. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Most recently, photos emerged of Trudeau in brownface, which hurt the Liberals’ polling numbers.
Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.
The Northwest Territories Legislative Assembly elections are Tuesday, October 1. The Assembly has been nonpartisan since 1905, so all 19 members are elected as independents.
Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.2 million
Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections, with at least seven mayoral candidates murdered.
Haiti Local and Partial Parliamentary (one third of the Senate and the entire lower house) – Due October 2019 (delay highly likely)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 10.8 million
Haiti is in a political crisis. Political chaos related to allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. A commission found that the election had indeed been fraudulent, and ordered a re-reun, which had only 18 percent turnout. President Moïse Jovenel was elected with 56 percent of ballots cast. The opposition alleged fraud once again, but an election tribunal conducted an investigation and certified the results. Violent protesters have demanded the president’s ouster. The 2015-2016 parliamentary elections were also marred by significant fraud. Opposition lawmakers blocked multiple attempts to ratify a new prime minister and have demanded Jovenel’s resignation.
Dominica Legislative - December 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 74,027
Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit’s center-left Dominica Labour Party (DLP) has been in government since 2000. DLP lost seats following the 2014 parliamentary elections, but with 15 out of 21 seats still has a substantial majority. The main opposition United Workers’ Party (UWP) led by Lennox Linton has six seats. Home of the famous Boiling Lake, the world’s second-largest hot spring, rare birds, and natural beauty, the country has the potential to develop its tourism industry, but the lack of a major international airport has impeded growth. The debate over whether to build one has been going on for decades, and is a major issue in the upcoming elections. Skerrit has been slow-rolling a decision on whether and how to build one, and some oppose the idea entirely.
Guyana Provincial and Snap Parliamentary – March 2, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 741,000
Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil.
In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation delayed the process. After months of back-and-forth, Granger announced that the election would take place on March 2, 2020.
Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese.
Venezuela Legislative – December 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: 31.7 million
Venezuela is currently in a political crisis following disputed presidential elections in May 2018. Incumbent Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez’s protege, was declared the winner, but the elections were widely denounced as illegitimate and the opposition mostly boycotted the polls. Because Venezuela’s constitution stipulates that the leader of the National Assembly (Venezuela’s only institution with a modicum of democratic legitimacy) becomes interim president if the office is vacant, many of the world’s free democracies recognized Juan Guaidó as interim president until the country holds new elections. Maduro continues to cling to power and his forces are violently cracking down on the opposition. The regime has deployed death squads. However, the opposition perseveres. National Assembly elections are not due until December 2020, but Maduro has threatened to hold early elections, which would likely be neither free nor fair and would deprive the opposition of the one institution it controls.
The country is also in a humanitarian crisis. The capital, Caracas, is one of the most violent cities in the world. Hyperinflation has resulted in 90 percent of Venezuelans being unable to afford sufficient food, and as many as 3.4 million people (more than 10 percent of the population) have fled since 2015.
Peru Presidential and Legislative – April 2021 (President wants to move them to April 19, 2020)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 31.3 milllion
Guatemala General, Second Round – August 11, 2019 (first round was June 16)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.6 million
These elections took place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.
In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.
Brazil General – October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: 208.8 million
Last year’s elections in Brazil swept controversial right-wing populist firebrand Jair Bolsonaro into the presidency, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country. Brazil holds local elections next year.
Upcoming Elections
Argentina Mendoza Provincial – September 29 and Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 – Throughout the year
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 44.7 million
On the presidential front: Incumbent Mauricio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.
In the primaries on August 11, 2019, in which voters must select both a preferred party and a preferred candidate, Fernández and Kirchner won an unexpectedly high 47 percent of the vote, compared with Macri’s 33 percent. Inflation spiked following the primaries.
Mendoza Provincial
Mark P. Jones, Forbes: “On September 29 the Argentine province of Mendoza will elect its governor and renew one-half of its bicameral legislature. Mendoza is Argentina’s fifth most populous province, and one of only five provinces (out of 24) currently governed by a member of President Mauricio Macri’s Together for Change alliance.”
Buenos Aires Times: “Victory for the incumbent Radical provincial administration would revive Mauricio Macri’s faltering chances of re-election, shattered after trailing his Frente de Todos rival Alberto Fernández by over 15 points in last month’s PASO primaries. Conversely, an opposition triumph from the nation’s fifth-largest electorate would boost the latter’s momentum to an almost irreversible degree.”
National Elections
Reuters: “Argentine President Mauricio Macri told a crowd of thousands of supporters on Saturday [September 28] that he could still turn the tide and win the upcoming presidential election, despite his main opponent’s wide lead.”
Andrés Velasco, Project Syndicate: “Argentina’s Recurring Nightmare: Argentine President Mauricio Macri seems almost certain to lose his country’s presidential election next month, after committing the same kinds of economic-policy mistakes that so many of his Peronist predecessors made. It is a tragic and catastrophically disappointing denouement.”
MercoPress: “Women dressed as Eva Peron, old political anthems blaring in the streets, flash-mobs with step-perfect choreography – it’s all part of the present-day cut and thrust of politics in Buenos Aires….Hundreds of ‘Evitas’ have featured in recent protests across the city, complete with 1930s-era pastel dresses and hair buns that were the hallmark of the actress-turned-first lady.”
Andrew Chatzky, Council on Foreign Relations: “A sovereign default would be Argentina’s ninth, a staggering tally for a country that was richer than France, Germany, and Italy just over a century ago. The move, along with recent primary results that cast doubt on President Mauricio Macri’s reelection prospects, may augur another shakeup in Argentina’s perennially unstable politics.”
Andres Oppenheimer, Miami Herald: “Venezuelans warn Argentines against voting for leftists, but few seem to be listening | Opinion”
Bolivia General – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.3 million
Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates. A court banned the publication of polls showing Morales may face a runoff.
Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS) currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.
Santiago Limachi, David Mercado, Reuters: “In Bolivia’s fire-ravaged lowlands, a caravan of indigenous protesters is marching hundreds of miles to demand President Evo Morales declare a surge in wildfires a national disaster, a move they hope will unleash international aid.”
Manuela Lavinas Picq, New York Times: “Mr. Morales, who is running for a controversial fourth term, dismissed environmentalists’ concerns and marches in five cities as the ‘electoral nuisance of small groups.’ One of his cabinet ministers, Juan Ramón Quintana, ruled out the declaration of a national disaster, claiming the fires were not uniform and did not affect enough people. Chiquitanos say the president intentionally let forests burn to ashes because the region holds little electoral value for him.”
Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
Population: 35.9 million
The election will be a competitive contest between the center-right Conservatives and incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s center-left Liberals. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Most recently, photos emerged of Trudeau in brownface, which hurt the Liberals’ polling numbers.
Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.
The Northwest Territories Legislative Assembly elections are Monday, October 1. The Assembly has been nonpartisan since 1905, so all 19 members are elected as independents.
AFP: “Conservatives led by rookie Andrew Scheer edged into the lead against beleaguered Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, which shed support to smaller leftist rivals less than a month from Canada’s general election, according to polls Tuesday [September 24]. The two parties had been neck and neck at the start of the campaign.”
BBC: “Canada election round-up: Has the blackface scandal cost Trudeau?”
Beatrice Britneff and Megan Robinson, Global News (Canada): “‘I just don’t feel there’s anyone good’: Canada’s undecided voters know what they want, but not who.”
Grace Shao, CNBC: “No matter who takes the top job in Canada at the next elections, the new government will likely have to take a harder line on China, analysts say.”
Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.2 million
Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections, with at least seven mayoral candidates murdered.
Sophie Foggin, Bogota Post: “A forecast of Colombia’s upcoming local elections: Colombia Risk Analysis provides insight into key issues, candidates, and regions in the country’s 2019 local elections.”
Adriaan Alsema, Colombia Reports: “Candidates from the left and right are trailing Bogota‘s two centrist candidates, Claudia Lopez and Carlos Fernando Galan. According to pollster Yanhaas, Galan is now leading the race for the second most powerful position in the country with the support of 31%.”
Haiti Local and Partial Parliamentary (one third of the Senate and the entire lower house) – Due October 2019 (delay highly likely)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 10.8 million
Haiti is in a political crisis. Political chaos related to allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. A commission found that the election had indeed been fraudulent, and ordered a re-reun, which had only 18 percent turnout. President Moïse Jovenel was elected with 56 percent of ballots cast. The opposition alleged fraud once again, but an election tribunal conducted an investigation and certified the results. Violent protesters have demanded the president’s ouster. The 2015-2016 parliamentary elections were also marred by significant fraud. Opposition lawmakers blocked multiple attempts to ratify a new prime minister and have demanded Jovenel’s resignation.
Johnny Simon, Quartz: “A terrifying scene unfolded in the Haitian capital of Port-Au-Prince yesterday [September 23[ when a senator arriving at parliament brandished a pistol and fired warning shots amid a crowd of protesters. Associated Press photojournalist Dieu Nalio Chery—whose images of the event are included in this story—was among those injured in the chaos.”
Jacqueline Charles, Miami Herald: “Anti-government demonstrations demanding the resignation of Haitian President Jovenel Moïse escalated Friday [September 27] in Haiti, as protesters throughout the country burned tires, erected barricades and ransacked and pillaged police stations and set businesses on fire.”
Sandra Lemaire, VOA: “U.S. Deputy Secretary of State John J. Sullivan met with Haitian Foreign Minister Bocchit Edmond on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York for talks that included Haiti’s ongoing political crisis. ‘The deputy secretary and the foreign minister reaffirmed the strength of the U.S.-Haiti partnership and shared hope that Haiti’s political stakeholders would soon identify a path to forming a government that remains firmly rooted in democracy and the rule of law,’ State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said of the Thursday meeting.”
Dominica Legislative – December 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 74,027
Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit’s center-left Dominica Labour Party (DLP) has been in government since 2000. DLP lost seats following the 2014 parliamentary elections, but with 15 out of 21 seats still has a substantial majority. The main opposition United Workers’ Party (UWP) led by Lennox Linton has six seats. Home of the famous Boiling Lake, the world’s second-largest hot spring, rare birds, and natural beauty, the country has the potential to develop its tourism industry, but the lack of a major international airport has impeded growth. The debate over whether to build one has been going on for decades, and is a major issue in the upcoming elections. Skerrit has been slow-rolling a decision on whether and how to build one, and some oppose the idea entirely.
The Antigua Observer: “CANA is reporting that Dominica’s main opposition United Workers Party (UWP) Wednesday announced plans for a campaign of civil disobedience in support of electoral reform as well getting the relevant authorities to probe allegations that EC$1.2 billion (One EC dollar=US$0.37 cents) have been missing from the controversial Citizenship by Investment (CBI) programme.”
Guyana Provincial and Snap Parliamentary – March 2, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 741,000
Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil.
In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation delayed the process. After months of back-and-forth, Granger announced that the election would take place on March 2, 2020.
Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese.
Argus Blog: “Guyana will hold parliamentary elections on 2 March 2020, around the time that ExxonMobil plans to launch offshore oil production that promises to transform the economy of the tiny South American country. The ruling People’s National Congress (PNC) party that has overseen the advent of oil development faces a close challenge from the main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), which has pledged to toughen oil contract terms.”
Frances Jenner, Latin America Reports: “The century-old land dispute between Guyana and Venezuela continues: Accusations against Juan Guaidó have resurfaced the debate over the rightful ownership of the Esquibo region.”
Venezuela Legislative – December 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: 31.7 million
Venezuela is currently in a political crisis following disputed presidential elections in May 2018. Incumbent Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez’s protege, was declared the winner, but the elections were widely denounced as illegitimate and the opposition mostly boycotted the polls. Because Venezuela’s constitution stipulates that the leader of the National Assembly (Venezuela’s only institution with a modicum of democratic legitimacy) becomes interim president if the office is vacant, many of the world’s free democracies recognized Juan Guaidó as interim president until the country holds new elections. Maduro continues to cling to power and his forces are violently cracking down on the opposition. The regime has deployed death squads. However, the opposition perseveres. National Assembly elections are not due until December 2020, but Maduro has threatened to hold early elections, which would likely be neither free nor fair and would deprive the opposition of the one institution it controls.
The country is also in a humanitarian crisis. The capital, Caracas, is one of the most violent cities in the world. Hyperinflation has resulted in 90 percent of Venezuelans being unable to afford sufficient food, and as many as 3.4 million people (more than 10 percent of the population) have fled since 2015.
Uri Friedman, The Atlantic: “Venezuela’s Struggle for Legitimacy Comes to New York: ’It’s a do-or-die moment for every Venezuelan.’”
Nicole Gaouette, CNN: “US and Latin America move to keep spotlight and pressure on Venezuela”
Joshua Goodman, AP: “The Trump administration is more than tripling U.S. support for pro-democracy work in Venezuela and for the first time directly funding opposition leader Juan Guaidó as he attempts to set up a government to rival the socialist administration of Nicolás Maduro.”
Peru Presidential and Legislative – April 2021 (President wants to move them to April 19, 2020)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 31.3 milllion
Reuters: “Peruvian opposition lawmakers shelved a snap election proposal from centrist President Martin Vizcarra on Thursday [September 26], knocking the country’s sol currency and setting the stage for a new bout of political upheaval in one of Latin America’s most stable markets.”
Reuters: “Peru’s centrist president, Martin Vizcarra, on Friday [September 27] announced he would ask for a vote of confidence from the opposition-run Congress that would empower him to dismiss lawmakers if it is rejected. The move aims to end an acrimonious power struggle between the executive and Vizcarra’s government and could lead to a protracted constitutional crisis if lawmakers resist.”
Carolina Wilson and John Quigley, Bloomberg: “Latin America has long suffered from leaders who clung on to power at any cost, trampling democratic institutions in the process. Peru’s current leader is proposing the exact opposite. After months of tussling with the opposition-controlled Congress over his anti-graft program, President Martin Vizcarra said in an interview that the best option is to call early presidential and parliamentary elections in 2020, in which he won’t be a candidate, to give the country a fresh start.”
The Economist: “The war against corruption in Latin America is in trouble”
Past Elections
Guatemala General, Second Round – August 11, 2019 (first round was June 16)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.6 million
These elections took place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.
In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.
AP: “Guatemala’s congress has created a committee to review, and potentially reverse, work done by a U.N.-backed anti-corruption mission during the past 12 years.”
Transparency International: “Anti-corruption sentiment in Latin America and the Caribbean has grown over the past several years, as people experience the many ways in which corruption undermines integrity and accountability in politics. The Global Corruption Barometer – Latin America and the Caribbean 2019 points to a substantial lack of political integrity among political figures and institutions, as well as around electoral processes, which weakens the foundations of democracies and leads to mistrust in government leaders.”
Brazil General – October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: 208.8 million
Last year’s elections in Brazil swept controversial right-wing populist firebrand Jair Bolsonaro into the presidency, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country. Brazil holds local elections next year.
Michael Royster, Rio Times: “As noted in a prior column, Jair Bolsonaro’s 2018 campaign platform stated that he would NOT be a candidate for re-election if he won. Recent events have shown he does not intend to honor that pledge. If there were still any lingering doubts about Bolsonaro’s intentions, he dispelled them, albeit sub silentio, by his speech at the opening of the UN General Assembly.”
Mac Margolis, Bloomberg: “Bolsonaro’s Culture Wars Hit Brazil’s Cinemas: Not long ago ultraconservative Brazilian voters fed up with the rotten political class came out of the closet to help elect a leader they could call their own. The result was right-wing Jair Bolsonaro and a deepening culture war. Now the ideological battles that have poisoned public discourse and set Brazilian against Brazilian have reached the cineplex.”
The Year Ahead: Americas
Canada provincial and territorial (throughout the year); Haiti parliamentary (due October – delays likely); Bolivia presidential and legislative (October 20); Canada general (October 21); Argentina presidential and legislative (October 27); Uruguay presidential and legislative (October 27); Colombia local (October 27); Guyana snap parliamentary (overdue – possibly November but likely in 2020); Trinidad and Tobago local (November); Dominica legislative (December); St. Kitts and Nevis legislative (February); Costa Rica local (February 2); Dominican Republican presidential and parliamentary (May 17); Suriname presidential and parliamentary (May 25). Trinidad and Tobago presidential and parliamentary (September)
21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.
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Category: This Week Tags: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Dominica, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Peru, Venezuela