Middle East This Week – October 1, 2019

October 1, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore the greater Middle East and North Africa on Tuesdays. Click the map pins.

Tunisia Parliamentary – October 6, 2019 and Presidential Second Round – October 13, 2019 (first round was September 15, 2019)

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 11.5 million

Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and this year, the country will hold the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Under Tunisia’s semi-presidential system, the president has broad authority over foreign and defense policy while the prime minister oversees domestic policy. Ennadha, which presents itself as a moderate, pro-democracy Islamist party but holds some retrograde views, won the first post-Ben Ali elections, but in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the secularist Nidaa Tounes won the most seats. In 2018, Tunisia held long-delayed municipal elections, which saw independent candidates win the most seats, followed by Ennadha.

Twenty-six candidates ran for president this year and the election was highly competitive, and the results shocked the political establishment. Two political outsiders will advance to the second round: law professor Kais Saied and jailed media mogul Nabil Karoui. Both could be considered populists, but in very different ways. Karoui has argued for a stronger presidency, while Saied supports decentralization. However, Saied is a social conservative, and has the backing of Ennadha.

The results indicated a rejection of the main political parties and post-Ben Ali political ideologies (Islamism and secular liberalism). However, some concerns linger about the democratic process. Because Karoui remains in jail, he is unable to speak directly to voters or to debate Saied, a fact with which even Saied himself has expressed discomfort.

The parliamentary elections look to produce a fractious legislature.

Algeria Presidential – December 12, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Not Free 
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 41.7 million

Algerian politics are dominated by Le Pouvoir, a small group of elite from the military and the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, aged 82 and unable to walk or talk, was going to run for a fifth term in the election originally scheduled for April, but tens of thousands of Algerians protested for two months, and Bouteflika resigned.

The election was moved to July 4, but then the Constitutional Council cancelled the vote. Months later, the interim government set a date of December 12. Protests continue. Protesters are demanding assurances that any new elections will be free and fair, and that the rest of the ruling elite resign before any vote takes place.

Iran Parliamentary – February 2020 and Presidential – May or June 2021

Freedom House Rating: Not Free 
Government Type: Theocratic Republic
Population: 83 million

Some analysts argue that “moderates” or “reformers” won Iran’s 2016 parliamentary elections, but the country’s opaque politics make it difficult to know for sure how to characterize the results. All candidates must be approved by the Guardian Council, which rejected thousands during the 2016 elections. Parliament is less powerful than the Supreme Leader and other institutions such as the Guardian Council, the judiciary, and the security services. The elections are happening in the context of escalating tensions with the United States.

Iran also has several exile opposition groups that seek regime change. Most prominently, the controversial MEK, a secretive group, operates out of a compound in Albania and is sometimes called a cult with a bizarre pastiche of Marxist and Islamist ideas, but nevertheless has ties with numerous high-level American and European officials. Exiled monarchists want to restore the Shah, who was removed in the 1979 Islamic revolution that brought the ayatollahs to power.

Iraq Provincial – April 20, 2020

Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 40.2 million

Date tentative – election commission has set it as their preferred date. Originally scheduled for December 2018, but delayed multiple times following controversial national elections in May 2018 (the first since the defeat of ISIS).

Egypt Local – Due 2019 (further delays likely)

Freedom House Rating: Not Free 
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 99.4 million

Egypt’s first local elections in over 10 years are supposed to happen this year, but a date has not been set. The country has not had elected local government since 2011. Last year’s presidential election, which saw President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi re-elected for a second term, was neither free nor fair, and took place in an environment of harassment and intimidation of the opposition. 

Palestinian Authority Legislative – Due by July 2019 (postponed indefinitely)

Freedom House Rating: Not Free (in both Gaza and West Bank
Population: West Bank – 2.8 million; 1.8 million (Gaza)

Elections are long overdue. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is currently in year 14 of a four-year term. Legislative Council elections are similarly long overdue – the last took place in 2006. Islamist fundamentalist Hamas won in a landslide. Municipal elections – boycotted by Hamas – have happened three times – in 2004-2005 in both Gaza and the West Bank and in 2012 and 2017 in the West Bank. In December 2018, the Ramallah-based Constitutional Court issued a ruling dissolving the Legislative Council (which had not met since 2007) and ordering elections within six months, but the elections are on hold indefinitely in the midst of a deadlocked conflict between the Gaza-baed Hamas and Abbas’s secularist Fatah, based in the West Bank.

Afghanistan Presidential – September 28, 2019 (further delays possible)

Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Islamic Republic
Population: 35 million

Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, marred by violence and administrative problems. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election.

The election took place amid attacks by the Taliban, which had ordered Aghans not to vote. Turnout was low. Both major candidates – incumbent Ghani and main challenger Abdullah, claimed victory right after the election, but official preliminary vote counts won’t be available until mid-October, with final results expected in early November.

Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 8.4 million

Israel – nicknamed the “startup nation” – is a vibrant democracy. In September, Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s center-right Likud was unable to form a coalition following April’s elections. Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset and called for new elections rather than giving former IDF chief Benny Gantz and his newly-formed centrist Kahol Lavan (Blue and White) the chance to try to form a government.

September’s recent election produced an equally inconclusive result. Israel’s president invited Netanyahu to make the first attempt to form a government, but his success is far from assured. If Netanyahu fails to form a government, either Gantz could form one or the country hold yet another election, the third in a year.

Upcoming Elections
Tunisia Parliamentary – October 6, 2019 and Presidential Second Round – October 13, 2019 (first round was September 15, 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 11.5 million

Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and this year, the country will hold the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Under Tunisia’s semi-presidential system, the president has broad authority over foreign and defense policy while the prime minister oversees domestic policy. Ennadha, which presents itself as a moderate, pro-democracy Islamist party but holds some retrograde views, won the first post-Ben Ali elections, but in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the secularist Nidaa Tounes won the most seats. In 2018, Tunisia held long-delayed municipal elections, which saw independent candidates win the most seats, followed by Ennadha.

Twenty-six candidates ran for president this year and the election was highly competitive, and the results shocked the political establishment. Two political outsiders will advance to the second round: law professor Kais Saied and jailed media mogul Nabil Karoui. Both could be considered populists, but in very different ways. Karoui has argued for a stronger presidency, while Saied supports decentralization. However, Saied is a social conservative, and has the backing of Ennadha.

The results indicated a rejection of the main political parties and post-Ben Ali political ideologies (Islamism and secular liberalism). However, some concerns linger about the democratic process. Because Karoui remains in jail, he is unable to speak directly to voters or to debate Saied, a fact with which even Saied himself has expressed discomfort.

The parliamentary elections look to produce a fractious legislature.

Presidential Election

Reuters: “Tunisian presidential candidate Nabil Karoui, who faces an election run-off this month, must stay in detention for now on suspicion of financial crimes that he denies, a court ruled on Tuesday.”

Sarah Yerkes, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: “A Close-Up View of Tunisia’s Unorthodox Presidential Election”

Francisco Serrano, World Politics Review: “With this unexpected outcome, Tunisians rejected the two main ideological and political currents that have held sway since 2011: secular liberalism and political Islam….The choice between two unlikely candidates could thrust several issues front and center. Would Saied’s social conservatism push him to support laws that curtail social freedoms or gender equality, as some fear? Would Karoui attempt to strengthen presidential powers, which were reduced after 2011 following years of autocracy?”

Parliamentary Elections

Project on Middle East Democracy: “Backgrounder – A Guide to Tunisia’s 2019 Parliamentary Elections”

Mohammed Argoubi and Angus McDowall, Reuters: “An Islamist dilemma after rise of populists in Tunisia: Having disappointed Islamists by rebranding itself a ‘Muslim democrat’ party, and poor Tunisians by joining governments that failed to improve their lot, [Ennadha] is trying to woo back its base.”

Algeria Presidential – December 12, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free 
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 41.7 million

Algerian politics are dominated by Le Pouvoir, a small group of elite from the military and the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, aged 82 and unable to walk or talk, was going to run for a fifth term in the election originally scheduled for April, but tens of thousands of Algerians protested for two months, and Bouteflika resigned.

The election was moved to July 4, but then the Constitutional Council cancelled the vote. Months later, the interim government set a date of December 12. Protests continue. Protesters are demanding assurances that any new elections will be free and fair, and that the rest of the ruling elite resign before any vote takes place.

Reuters: “Algeria’s army said on Sunday it would not back any candidate in a presidential election set for December to choose a successor to Abdelaziz Bouteflika.”

Iran Parliamentary – February 2020 and Presidential – May or June 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free 
Government Type: Theocratic Republic
Population: 83 million

Some analysts argue that “moderates” or “reformers” won Iran’s 2016 parliamentary elections, but the country’s opaque politics make it difficult to know for sure how to characterize the results. All candidates must be approved by the Guardian Council, which rejected thousands during the 2016 elections. Parliament is less powerful than the Supreme Leader and other institutions such as the Guardian Council, the judiciary, and the security services. The elections are happening in the context of escalating tensions with the United States.

Iran also has several exile opposition groups that seek regime change. Most prominently, the controversial MEK, a secretive group, operates out of a compound in Albania and is sometimes called a cult with a bizarre pastiche of Marxist and Islamist ideas, but nevertheless has ties with numerous high-level American and European officials. Exiled monarchists want to restore the Shah, who was removed in the 1979 Islamic revolution that brought the ayatollahs to power.

RFE/RL’s Radio Farda: “Two leading conservative and reformist figures have expressed concern over the apparent indifference of the electorate in Iran as the country’s parliamentary elections are fast approaching. They list populism, the decline in the status of the Majles (Parliament), the biased vetting of the candidates by a hardliner watchdog council and the reformists’ poor performance in the current Majles as some of the reasons making voters more indifferent.”

Yasna Haghdoost, Bloomberg: “Iran will for the first time grant citizenship to children born to an Iranian mother and foreign father after a long-awaited bill was signed into law by the powerful Guardian Council in a significant victory for women’s rights.”

Iraq Provincial – April 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 40.2 million

Date tentative – election commission has set it as their preferred date. Originally scheduled for December 2018, but delayed multiple times following controversial national elections in May 2018 (the first since the defeat of ISIS).

Omar Al-Nidawi, War on the Rocks: “Checking Iranian Power in Iraq….Turnout was so poor in the 2018 election (the official figure was 44.5 percent, but Iraqi politicians told me the real figure was closer to 30 percent) that organized, often radical parties and militias were able to outperform skeptical, unmotivated moderates. The upcoming provincial elections next April are an opportunity to reverse that trend.”

Updated October 2, 2019

Reuters: “Internet access has been cut off across much of Iraq including the capital Baghdad with connectivity falling below 70%, internet blockage observatory NetBlocks said, amid renewed anti-government protests that turned violent and spread nationwide.”

Ali Mamouri, Al-Monitor: “As anti-Iran sentiments rise, protests erupt in Iraq: The mass protests erupted on Tuesday [October 1]. According to the Iraqi government, at least two people were killed and more than 200 wounded, including 40 security officers, during the first day of protests. Security forces used tear gas, water cannons and live fire to disperse demonstrators.”

Robert S. Ford and Randa Slim, Foreign Affairs: “Today, several dozen such Shiite militias operate in Iraq (in addition to a handful of Sunni ones). They receive substantial budgetary support from the central government but are not entirely under its control. Many operate smuggling rings and rackets and snarl traffic with their checkpoints. Even without the rocket attacks, their continued influence is bad news.”

Egypt Local – Due 2019 (further delays likely)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free 
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 99.4 million

Egypt’s first local elections in over 10 years are supposed to happen this year, but a date has not been set. The country has not had elected local government since 2011. Last year’s presidential election, which saw President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi re-elected for a second term, was neither free nor fair, and took place in an environment of harassment and intimidation of the opposition. 

BBC: “Human rights groups say about 2,000 people have been arrested since scattered anti-government protests erupted in Cairo and other cities last week. The protests were in response to corruption allegations against Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s government. Under President Sisi, there has been a wide-ranging crackdown on dissent and protests are very rare.”

Amnesty International: “The authorities have carried out sweeping arrests of hundreds of peaceful protesters as well as carrying out more targeted arbitrary arrests of human rights lawyers, journalists, political activists and politicians. The vast majority of those arrested are being investigated as part of one single case. If referred to trial, it would be the largest protest-related criminal case in Egypt’s history.”

Andrew England, Financial Times: “A broken Muslim Brotherhood struggles for relevance: Cairo blames the Islamist group for inciting protests across Egypt, but few believe the divided movement still wields such influence

Sudarsan Raghavan and Heba Farouk Mahfouz, Washington Post: “In Egypt, dissent is silenced by masked men, riot police and blocked roads”

Al-Monitor: “Secular parties are considering freezing their political activities as a result of the recent campaign of arrests against people who oppose or have differences with the government.”

Palestinian Authority Legislative – Due by July 2019 (postponed indefinitely)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (in both Gaza and West Bank
Population: West Bank – 2.8 million; 1.8 million (Gaza)

Elections are long overdue. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is currently in year 14 of a four-year term. Legislative Council elections are similarly long overdue – the last took place in 2006. Islamist fundamentalist Hamas won in a landslide. Municipal elections – boycotted by Hamas – have happened three times – in 2004-2005 in both Gaza and the West Bank and in 2012 and 2017 in the West Bank. In December 2018, the Ramallah-based Constitutional Court issued a ruling dissolving the Legislative Council (which had not met since 2007) and ordering elections within six months, but the elections are on hold indefinitely in the midst of a deadlocked conflict between the Gaza-baed Hamas and Abbas’s secularist Fatah, based in the West Bank.

Al Bawaba: “Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas told the UN General Assembly last week that he plans to set a date for the first general election in 13 years in the West Bank, Gaza Strip and Jerusalem. Is it possible to hold such an election, and is the best option to turn the page and start a new chapter after the internal split between Fatah and Hamas, which has caused more than a decade of division and fragmentation?”

Khaled Abu Toameh, Jerusalem Post: “Palestinian political analysts pointed out that it was unclear what Abbas meant when he talked about holding an election….The analysts said that the chances of holding any election were slim in light of the continued dispute between Fatah and Hamas, adding that the gap between the two rival parties remains as wide as ever.”

Past Elections 
Afghanistan Presidential – September 28, 2019 (further delays possible)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Islamic Republic
Population: 35 million

Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, marred by violence and administrative problems. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election.

The election took place amid attacks by the Taliban, which had ordered Aghans not to vote. Turnout was low. Both major candidates – incumbent Ghani and main challenger Abdullah, claimed victory right after the election, but official preliminary vote counts won’t be available until mid-October, with final results expected in early November.

Mujib Mashal and Fahim Abed, New York Times: “The two main contenders in Afghanistan’s presidential election both claimed they were ahead on Monday after ballot counting had barely begun, raising fears of a new political crisis in a nation convulsed by protracted war. The contradictory claims by the camps of President Ashraf Ghani and his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, came two days after the voting was held despite hundreds of attacks by Taliban insurgents, who had called the election illegitimate and warned Afghans not to participate.”

Ravi Agrawal and Kathryn Salam, Foreign Policy: “Ghani and Abdullah have been here before. After Afghanistan’s last election in 2014, the two leaders made similar claims of victory and accused each other of fraud. It was only after then-U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry intervened that they reached a power-sharing deal, with Ghani as president and Abdullah as chief executive.”

Graeme Smith and Borhan Osman, International Crisis Group: “Afghanistan’s Low-turnout Election, Insecurity and Unsettled Prospects for Peace”

Thomas Gibbons-Neff and Najim Rahim, New York Times: “There are several reasons Afghan officials are struggling to determine how people voted in the presidential election last week — possible fraud, misplaced biometric data and the country’s vast geography. But there is one factor that has complicated the effort more than any other: the Taliban’s tactic of destroying cellphone towers.”

Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 8.4 million

Israel – nicknamed the “startup nation” – is a vibrant democracy. In September, Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s center-right Likud was unable to form a coalition following April’s elections. Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset and called for new elections rather than giving former IDF chief Benny Gantz and his newly-formed centrist Kahol Lavan (Blue and White) the chance to try to form a government.

September’s recent election produced an equally inconclusive result. Israel’s president invited Netanyahu to make the first attempt to form a government, but his success is far from assured. If Netanyahu fails to form a government, either Gantz could form one or the country hold yet another election, the third in a year.

Sam Meredith, CNBC: “An inconclusive ballot in mid-September has thrust Israel back into another period of political deadlock, with no obvious path forward for the implementation of a U.S.-led peace plan. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu failed to secure a clear election victory last month. It has put the country’s longest-serving leader in an even weaker position at a time when he is preparing to face a looming indictment on corruption allegations.”

Jonathan Lis, Haaretz: “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Yisrael Beiteinu Chairman Avigdor Lieberman have agreed to meet on Thursday amid talks on a national unity government, hours after Benny Gantz’s Kahol Lavan party shunned a meeting with Likud’s negotiation team.”

Adnan Abu Amer, Al-Monitor: “Benny Gantz: the lesser of two evils for Palestinians: The Joint List announced Sept. 22 its decision to recommend Blue and White party leader Benny Gantz as a candidate for prime minister. Its decision, a first for Arabs in Israel, sent shockwaves through the West Bank and Gaza, not just inside Israel.”

Yara Hawari, Foreign Policy: “Backing Benny Gantz Won’t Help Palestinians: Arab voters are simply used as pawns in Israeli politics. The Joint List’s leaders are naive to think any Israeli prime minister will ever address their concerns.”

The Year Ahead: Middle East
Egypt local (due 2019 – date not set – delays likely); Libya (international community wants presidential or legislative elections this year – delays highly likely); Algeria presidential (July 4 – cancelled); Israel snap parliamentary (September 17); Afghanistan presidential (September 28); Tunisia presidential and parliamentary (September 15 and November 17); Iraq provincial (November 16); Iran parliamentary (February 2020); Palestinian Authority legislative (elections overdue – new government says they aim to hold elections but no date set)


An Afghan voter in 2005. Photo credit: U.S. Army/Staff Sgt. Jacob Caldwell (public domain)

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