Upcoming Middle East Elections
Algeria Presidential – December 12, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 41.7 million
Algerian politics are dominated by Le Pouvoir, a small group of elite from the military and the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, aged 82 and unable to walk or talk, was going to run for a fifth term in the election originally scheduled for April, but tens of thousands of Algerians protested for two months, and Bouteflika resigned.
The election was moved to July 4, but then the Constitutional Council cancelled the vote. Months later, the interim government set a date of December 12. Protests continue. Protesters are demanding assurances that any new elections will be free and fair, and that the rest of the ruling elite resign before any vote takes place.
Reuters: “Algerian protesters vowed to keep up street rallies against the country’s ruling elite on Friday, rejecting a December presidential election with banners reading ‘we will not shut up,’ ‘we are not ready to stop’ and ‘I will not vote.’”
Past Middle East Elections
Tunisia Presidential Second Round – October 13, 2019 (first round was September 15, 2019 and parliamentary elections were October 6, 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 11.5 million
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and this year, the country will hold the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Under Tunisia’s semi-presidential system, the president has broad authority over foreign and defense policy while the prime minister oversees domestic policy. Ennadha, which presents itself as a moderate, pro-democracy Islamist party but holds some retrograde views, won the first post-Ben Ali elections, but in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the secularist Nidaa Tounes won the most seats. In 2018, Tunisia held long-delayed municipal elections, which saw independent candidates win the most seats, followed by Ennadha.
Twenty-six candidates ran for president this year and the election was highly competitive, and the results shocked the political establishment. Two political outsiders will advance to the second round: law professor Kais Saied and jailed media mogul Nabil Karoui. Both could be considered populists, but in very different ways. Karoui has argued for a stronger presidency, while Saied supports decentralization. However, Saied is a social conservative, and has the backing of Ennadha.
The results indicated a rejection of the main political parties and post-Ben Ali political ideologies (Islamism and secular liberalism). However, some concerns lingered about the democratic process. Because Karoui remained in jail, he was unable to speak directly to voters for most of the campaign, a fact with which even Saied himself has expressed discomfort. However, he was released a few days before the vote, and the two candidates did face off in a televised debate.
Angus McDowall, Reuters: “Saied’s opponent Nabil Karoui conceded defeat earlier on Monday and the electoral commission said turnout was 55% of the vote.”
Robert Zaretsky, Slate: “Can the Last Surviving Democracy of the Arab Spring Hang On? What Tunisia’s shocking election result means for the country, and its region.”
Christian Caryl, Washington Post: “The democratic success story that no one is talking about….Tunisia just held the second round of its presidential vote — and the people won.”
Updated October 16, 2019
Amel al-Hilali, Al-Monitor: “Tunisia’s Independent High Authority for Elections announced at a press conference Oct. 9 the results of the legislative elections held three days earlier. Ennahda came in first with 52 seats in parliament, followed by the liberal party Qalb Tounes (Heart of Tunis) with 38 seats. The Democratic Current secured 22 seats and the conservative Dignity Coalition got 21 seats. Many political leaders have voiced concerns about what they called the dilemma of forming a government in light of the leading party’s inability to obtain a majority — 109 seats out of 217 — and form a government by itself.”
Abdel Thabeti, Andalou Agency (Turkey): “Scenarios in formation of new government in Tunisia: Talks between Tunisian parties started after preliminary parliamentary elections results were announced.”
Afghanistan Presidential – September 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Islamic Republic
Population: 35 million
Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, marred by violence and administrative problems. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election.
The election took place amid attacks by the Taliban, which had ordered Aghans not to vote, although the violence was less severe than had been feared. Turnout was low. Both major candidates – incumbent Ghani and main challenger Abdullah, claimed victory right after the election, but official preliminary vote counts are not yet available. Final results expected in early November but could be delayed.
Frud Bezhan, RFE/RL: “Turnout in Afghanistan’s presidential election was already a record low, at around 26 percent. But it could sink more as election authorities sift through the votes cast in the September 28 poll. The election commission could discard more than 700,000 of the 2.7 million votes cast in the poll because they fail to meet new rules aimed at combating fraud.”
Keegan Boyle, Jurist: “Violence surrounding Afghanistan’s recent elections have resulted in 85 dead and 373 injured, according to a report from the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) published Wednesday. More than 200 injuries and 28 deaths occurred on election day, September 28, primarily at the hands of a Taliban extremist group.”
Jumakhan Rahyab, The Diplomat: “Is Democracy Dying in Afghanistan?….With all the difficulties Afghan people are grappling with, and with all challenges the country is facing, there is no alternative to a democracy in Afghanistan. While remembering that it is not easy to rescue democracy and put it back on the right track, we ought also to remember that it is possible and achievable.”
Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 8.4 million
Israel – nicknamed the “startup nation” – is a vibrant democracy. In September, Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s center-right Likud was unable to form a coalition following April’s elections. Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset and called for new elections rather than giving former IDF chief Benny Gantz and his newly-formed centrist Kahol Lavan (Blue and White) the chance to try to form a government.
September’s recent election produced an equally inconclusive result. Israel’s president invited Netanyahu to make the first attempt to form a government, but his success is far from assured. If Netanyahu fails to form a government by October 25 (and if President Reuven Rivlin does not then give him an extension), either Gantz could form one or the country hold yet another election, the third in a year.
Raoul Wootliff, Times of Israel: “Why Likud MKs aren’t trying to replace Netanyahu, yet: Despite likely failing to form a coalition for the second time and as legal woes close in on him, the PM’s still managing to fend off potential contenders from within his own party.”
Evelyn Gordon, Algemeiner: “Netanyahu’s Undemocratic Tactics Cost Him the Election”
Middle East This Week – October 15, 2019
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Last Updated: October 24, 2019 by 21votes
October 15, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore the greater Middle East and North Africa on Tuesdays. Click the map pins.
Algeria Presidential – December 12, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 41.7 million
Algerian politics are dominated by Le Pouvoir, a small group of elite from the military and the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, aged 82 and unable to walk or talk, was going to run for a fifth term in the election originally scheduled for April, but tens of thousands of Algerians protested for two months, and Bouteflika resigned.
The election was moved to July 4, but then the Constitutional Council cancelled the vote. Months later, the interim government set a date of December 12. Protests continue. Protesters are demanding assurances that any new elections will be free and fair, and that the rest of the ruling elite resign before any vote takes place.
Tunisia Presidential Second Round – October 13, 2019 (first round was September 15, 2019 and parliamentary elections were October 6, 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 11.5 million
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and this year, the country will hold the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Under Tunisia’s semi-presidential system, the president has broad authority over foreign and defense policy while the prime minister oversees domestic policy. Ennadha, which presents itself as a moderate, pro-democracy Islamist party but holds some retrograde views, won the first post-Ben Ali elections, but in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the secularist Nidaa Tounes won the most seats. In 2018, Tunisia held long-delayed municipal elections, which saw independent candidates win the most seats, followed by Ennadha.
Twenty-six candidates ran for president this year and the election was highly competitive, and the results shocked the political establishment. Two political outsiders will advance to the second round: law professor Kais Saied and jailed media mogul Nabil Karoui. Both could be considered populists, but in very different ways. Karoui has argued for a stronger presidency, while Saied supports decentralization. However, Saied is a social conservative, and has the backing of Ennadha.
The results indicated a rejection of the main political parties and post-Ben Ali political ideologies (Islamism and secular liberalism). However, some concerns lingered about the democratic process. Because Karoui remained in jail, he was unable to speak directly to voters for most of the campaign, a fact with which even Saied himself has expressed discomfort. However, he was released a few days before the vote, and the two candidates did face off in a televised debate.
Afghanistan Presidential – September 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Islamic Republic
Population: 35 million
Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, marred by violence and administrative problems. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election.
The election took place amid attacks by the Taliban, which had ordered Aghans not to vote, although the violence was less severe than had been feared. Turnout was low. Both major candidates – incumbent Ghani and main challenger Abdullah, claimed victory right after the election, but official preliminary vote counts are not yet available. Final results expected in early November but could be delayed.
Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 8.4 million
Israel – nicknamed the “startup nation” – is a vibrant democracy. In September, Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s center-right Likud was unable to form a coalition following April’s elections. Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset and called for new elections rather than giving former IDF chief Benny Gantz and his newly-formed centrist Kahol Lavan (Blue and White) the chance to try to form a government.
September’s recent election produced an equally inconclusive result. Israel’s president invited Netanyahu to make the first attempt to form a government, but his success is far from assured. If Netanyahu fails to form a government by October 25 (and if President Reuven Rivlin does not then give him an extension), either Gantz could form one or the country hold yet another election, the third in a year.
Upcoming Middle East Elections
Algeria Presidential – December 12, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 41.7 million
Algerian politics are dominated by Le Pouvoir, a small group of elite from the military and the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, aged 82 and unable to walk or talk, was going to run for a fifth term in the election originally scheduled for April, but tens of thousands of Algerians protested for two months, and Bouteflika resigned.
The election was moved to July 4, but then the Constitutional Council cancelled the vote. Months later, the interim government set a date of December 12. Protests continue. Protesters are demanding assurances that any new elections will be free and fair, and that the rest of the ruling elite resign before any vote takes place.
Reuters: “Algerian protesters vowed to keep up street rallies against the country’s ruling elite on Friday, rejecting a December presidential election with banners reading ‘we will not shut up,’ ‘we are not ready to stop’ and ‘I will not vote.’”
Past Middle East Elections
Tunisia Presidential Second Round – October 13, 2019 (first round was September 15, 2019 and parliamentary elections were October 6, 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 11.5 million
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and this year, the country will hold the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Under Tunisia’s semi-presidential system, the president has broad authority over foreign and defense policy while the prime minister oversees domestic policy. Ennadha, which presents itself as a moderate, pro-democracy Islamist party but holds some retrograde views, won the first post-Ben Ali elections, but in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the secularist Nidaa Tounes won the most seats. In 2018, Tunisia held long-delayed municipal elections, which saw independent candidates win the most seats, followed by Ennadha.
Twenty-six candidates ran for president this year and the election was highly competitive, and the results shocked the political establishment. Two political outsiders will advance to the second round: law professor Kais Saied and jailed media mogul Nabil Karoui. Both could be considered populists, but in very different ways. Karoui has argued for a stronger presidency, while Saied supports decentralization. However, Saied is a social conservative, and has the backing of Ennadha.
The results indicated a rejection of the main political parties and post-Ben Ali political ideologies (Islamism and secular liberalism). However, some concerns lingered about the democratic process. Because Karoui remained in jail, he was unable to speak directly to voters for most of the campaign, a fact with which even Saied himself has expressed discomfort. However, he was released a few days before the vote, and the two candidates did face off in a televised debate.
Angus McDowall, Reuters: “Saied’s opponent Nabil Karoui conceded defeat earlier on Monday and the electoral commission said turnout was 55% of the vote.”
Robert Zaretsky, Slate: “Can the Last Surviving Democracy of the Arab Spring Hang On? What Tunisia’s shocking election result means for the country, and its region.”
Christian Caryl, Washington Post: “The democratic success story that no one is talking about….Tunisia just held the second round of its presidential vote — and the people won.”
Updated October 16, 2019
Amel al-Hilali, Al-Monitor: “Tunisia’s Independent High Authority for Elections announced at a press conference Oct. 9 the results of the legislative elections held three days earlier. Ennahda came in first with 52 seats in parliament, followed by the liberal party Qalb Tounes (Heart of Tunis) with 38 seats. The Democratic Current secured 22 seats and the conservative Dignity Coalition got 21 seats. Many political leaders have voiced concerns about what they called the dilemma of forming a government in light of the leading party’s inability to obtain a majority — 109 seats out of 217 — and form a government by itself.”
Abdel Thabeti, Andalou Agency (Turkey): “Scenarios in formation of new government in Tunisia: Talks between Tunisian parties started after preliminary parliamentary elections results were announced.”
Afghanistan Presidential – September 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Islamic Republic
Population: 35 million
Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, marred by violence and administrative problems. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election.
The election took place amid attacks by the Taliban, which had ordered Aghans not to vote, although the violence was less severe than had been feared. Turnout was low. Both major candidates – incumbent Ghani and main challenger Abdullah, claimed victory right after the election, but official preliminary vote counts are not yet available. Final results expected in early November but could be delayed.
Frud Bezhan, RFE/RL: “Turnout in Afghanistan’s presidential election was already a record low, at around 26 percent. But it could sink more as election authorities sift through the votes cast in the September 28 poll. The election commission could discard more than 700,000 of the 2.7 million votes cast in the poll because they fail to meet new rules aimed at combating fraud.”
Keegan Boyle, Jurist: “Violence surrounding Afghanistan’s recent elections have resulted in 85 dead and 373 injured, according to a report from the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) published Wednesday. More than 200 injuries and 28 deaths occurred on election day, September 28, primarily at the hands of a Taliban extremist group.”
Jumakhan Rahyab, The Diplomat: “Is Democracy Dying in Afghanistan?….With all the difficulties Afghan people are grappling with, and with all challenges the country is facing, there is no alternative to a democracy in Afghanistan. While remembering that it is not easy to rescue democracy and put it back on the right track, we ought also to remember that it is possible and achievable.”
Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 8.4 million
Israel – nicknamed the “startup nation” – is a vibrant democracy. In September, Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s center-right Likud was unable to form a coalition following April’s elections. Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset and called for new elections rather than giving former IDF chief Benny Gantz and his newly-formed centrist Kahol Lavan (Blue and White) the chance to try to form a government.
September’s recent election produced an equally inconclusive result. Israel’s president invited Netanyahu to make the first attempt to form a government, but his success is far from assured. If Netanyahu fails to form a government by October 25 (and if President Reuven Rivlin does not then give him an extension), either Gantz could form one or the country hold yet another election, the third in a year.
Raoul Wootliff, Times of Israel: “Why Likud MKs aren’t trying to replace Netanyahu, yet: Despite likely failing to form a coalition for the second time and as legal woes close in on him, the PM’s still managing to fend off potential contenders from within his own party.”
Evelyn Gordon, Algemeiner: “Netanyahu’s Undemocratic Tactics Cost Him the Election”
The Year Ahead: Middle East Elections
Egypt local (due 2019 – date not set – delays likely); Libya (international community wants presidential or legislative elections this year – highly unlikely to happen given ongoing civil war); Algeria presidential (December 12); Iran parliamentary (February); Iraq provincial (April 20); Palestinian Authority legislative (elections overdue – new government says they aim to hold elections but no date set)
Photo credit: United States Department of Defense (public domain). The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
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Category: This Week Tags: Afghanistan, Algeria, Israel, Tunisia