Upcoming Elections
Algeria Presidential – July 4, 2019 (cancelled)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Algerian politics are dominated by Le Pouvoir, a small group of elite from the military and the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, aged 82 and unable to walk or talk, was going to run for a fifth term in the election originally scheduled for April, but tens of thousands of Algerians protestedfor two months, and Bouteflika resigned. The election was moved to July 4, but then the Constitutional Council cancelled the vote and has not set a new date. Protests continue. Protesters are demanding assurances that any new elections will be free and fair.
Victoria Gatenby, Al-Jazeera: “Algeria protesters demand free elections within six months. Algerian protesters and opposition parties have demanded elections take place by the end of the year, after the interim president pushed for talks.”
France24: “Authorities have postponed a presidential election initially planned for Thursday, extending a transition period led by Bensalah as upper house head according to the constitution. In a televised speech, Bensalah said a national dialogue should be launched to decide on how to hold presidential elections, without setting a date.”
Aomar Ouali, AP: “Prominent Algerians from various walks of life tried Saturday to craft a plan to pull their country out of political crisis and prepare for a presidential election — but faced pressure from authorities and divisions within the country’s democratic movement.”
Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Israel – nicknamed the “startup nation” – is a vibrant democracy. In September, Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s center-right Likud was unable to form a coalition following April’s elections. While parties friendly to Netanyahu won more seats than those friendly to Netanyahu’s main rival, former IDF chief Benny Gantz, coalition talks collapsed over the issue of drafting ultra-Orthodox into the military. One of Likud’s coalition partners, Avgidor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, supported conscription – and refused to budge – while religious parties adamantly opposed it, highlighting growing tensions between secular and religious Israelis. Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset and called for new elections rather than giving Gantz the chance to try to form a government. Additionally, Netanyahu faces corruption charges. The elections are happening in the middle of U.S. President Donald Trump’s quixotic attempt to seal the “deal of the century” between Israelis and Palestinians.
Dahlia Scheindlin, Foreign Affairs: “What to Expect From Israel’s Election Re-Run: Can Netanyahu Unite the Right?”
Jerusalem Post: “If Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was elected today, would he be able to form a government without Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu party? A new poll published Friday by the Hebrew daily Israel Hayom shows that Netanyahu would still need the former defense minister.”
Jonathan Lis, Haaretz: “Israel’s Center-left Parties Seek Election Alliance, but Little Progress Made”
Shany Mor, The Algemeiner: “Three Scenarios for Israel’s Election Campaign”
Gil Hoffman, Jerusalem Post: “The September 17 election must take place and cannot be cancelled, Knesset legal adviser Eyal Yinon ruled on Thursday, but he left open the possibility that the election could still be prevented if war broke out.
Adam Rasgon, Times of Israel: “Greenblatt: Trump may decide to release peace plan before Israeli elections. American envoy says White House still mulling whether to wait until after a government is formed to publicize political proposal”
Dalia Hatuqa, Foreign Policy: “Benjamin Netanyahu and Mahmoud Abbas Need Each Other to Survive: Israel needs the Palestinian Authority’s security cooperation to avoid another intifada—and without security ties to Israel and the funding that comes with it, the PA could cease to exist.”
Afghanistan Presidential – September 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Islamic Republic
Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, marred by violence and administrative problems. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election. Presidential campaign is gearing up right in the middle of peacenegotiations between the United States and the Taliban.
Ashley Jackson, Foreign Policy: “There Will Be No Peace for Afghanistan. Despite optimistic signs from U.S.-led peace talks in Qatar, Afghanistan’s future looks bleak.”
Pamela Constable, Washington Post: “Taliban car bomb hits intelligence compound in Afghanistan, killing at least 12 and wounding schoolchildren”
Tunisia Parliamentary – October 6, 2019 and Presidential – November 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and this year, the country will hold the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Ennadha, which presents itself as a moderate, pro-democracy Islamist party but holds some retrograde views, won the first post-Ben Ali elections, but in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the secularist Nidaa Tounes won the most seats. In 2018, Tunisia held long-delayed municipal elections, which saw independent candidates win the most seats, followed by Ennadha. President Beji Caid Essebsi of Nidaa Tounes, who became Tunisia’s first democratically-elected president in 2014, has said he will not seek a second term this year, even though the constitution allows it, saying it was time to “open the door to the youth” (Essebsi is 92). Prime Minister Youssef Chahed broke off from Nidaa Tounes to form Tahya Tounes, another secularist party, and it looks to be a close contest between the fractious secularist parties and Ennadha (Machrouu Tounes, another secularist party, broke from Nidaa Tounes in 2016 and currently has 25 seats in parliament).
Terrorist attacks and Essebsi’s sudden illness threatened to throw a wrench in Tunisian politics.
Alessandra Bajec, The New Arab: “Tunisian voters defiant despite terror attacks and president’s ill health”
The Economist: “The elections present an opportunity for political outsiders. A recent survey by Sigma Conseil, a pollster, was grim reading for established politicians.”
Kersten Knipp, DW: “Tunisian LGBT rights advocate ‘sticking with’ bid for presidency. Gay rights activist Mounir Baatour wants to become president in Tunisia — and is putting the fight for LGBT rights at the center of his election campaign. He doesn’t have much a chance, but he’s determined to fight.”
Gordon Gray, The National Interest: “America Should Support Tunisian Democracy”
Reuters: “Tunisia’s tourism revenues soared 42.5% in the first half of 2019 to $692 million compared to the same period last year, official figures showed on Monday. The figures came days after three suicide bombings in Tunis, by militants targeting police, as Tunisia prepares for autumn elections and is in peak tourist season.”
Conrad Duncan, The Independent: “Tunisia has banned face-covering veils in state-run buildings “for security reasons” following three terror attacks in the space of a week. The decision ends a policy of official tolerance to face-covering in public institutions and makes the north African nation the latest country to outlaw religious clothing in the aftermath of terrorism.”
Iran Parliamentary – February 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Theocratic Republic
Some analysts argue that “moderates” or “reformers” won Iran’s 2016 parliamentary elections, but the country’s opaque politics make it difficult to know for sure how to characterize the results. All candidates must be approved by the Guardian Council, which rejected thousands during the 2016 elections. Parliament is less powerful than the Supreme Leader and other institutions such as the Guardian Council, the judiciary, and the security services. The elections are happening in the context of escalating tensions with the United States.
RFE/RL’s Radio Farda: “Meeting with members of Engineers Association on Saturday, July 6, [former president Mohammed] Khatami called for efforts toward forming an effective strategy for reformists strategy, to attract people to participate in elections. The Iranian electorate has at times pinned its hopes on reformists during elections and handed them victories, starting with Mr. Khatami’s first election as president in 1997. But every time conservatives supported by the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the hardline military have quashed hopes of reforming the system in favor of a less restrictive political and social environment.”
Palestinian Authority Legislative – Due by July 2019 (postponed indefinitely)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (in both Gaza and West Bank)
Elections are long overdue. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is currently in year 14 of a four-year term. Legislative Council elections are similarly long overdue – the last took place in 2006. Islamist fundamentalist Hamas won in a landslide. Municipal elections – boycotted by Hamas – have happened three times – in 2004-2005 in both Gaza and the West Bank and in 2012 and 2017 in the West Bank. In December 2018, the Ramallah-based Constitutional Court issued a ruling dissolving the Legislative Council (which had not met since 2007) and ordering elections within six months, but the elections are on hold indefinitely in the midst of a deadlocked conflict between the Gaza-baed Hamas and Abbas’s secularist Fatah, based in the West Bank.
Khaled Abu Toameh, Gatestone Institute: “Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas says that he is ready to hold long-overdue presidential and parliamentary elections, and has even instructed the Palestinian Central Elections Commission to start preparing for the vote. Abbas seems to be taking quite a gamble. There is a real possibility that his rivals in Hamas will manage to push him off the presidential throne he has been occupying so persistently for the past fourteen years.”
Al-Monitor: “For the first time in Jenin governorate, in the northern West Bank, a woman was elected June 25 to preside over the village council of al-Judeida. The council’s 11 members chose social activist Kifaya Zakzouk to head the council during elections held under the supervision of the directorate of the Ministry of Local Government in Jenin governorate.”
Amira Hass, Haaretz: “’Palestinian Authority Is Tyrannical’: Joint Gaza, West Bank Conference Amps Criticism of Abbas and Hamas. At a recent confab, panel members and everyday Palestinians discuss democracy, with their openness only highlighting the obedience enforced on Fatah and PLO”
Libya Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: In Transition
Libya remains in a civil war. The international community wants Libya to hold presidential or parliamentary elections this year. Unclear when the elections will actually happen.
Samer Khali al-Atrush, Ilya Arkhipov, Henry Meyer, Bloomberg: “Libyan security forces have arrested two men accused of working for a Russian troll farm seeking to influence elections in the oil exporter and other African countries. A letter from the state prosecutor of the internationally-backed Tripoli government to a Libyan security chief said the men were involved in ‘securing a meeting’ with Saif al-Islam al-Qaddafi, the fugitive son of the ousted dictator and a potential presidential candidate who enjoys the backing of some officials in Moscow.”
AP: “In Libya, a rogues’ gallery of militias”
Past Elections
Turkey, Istanbul Mayoral Re-Run, June 23, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Party Free in 2018) – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Turkey held local elections on March 31, but invalidated the results of the Istanbul mayoral election after Ekrem Imamoglu from the opposition Republican Party (CHP) won by a small margin. They re-ran the election on June 23 after Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) alleged fraud. The move did not pay off – Imamoglu defeated AKP’s Binali Yildirim once again, by an even bigger margin. The election took place in the context of Turkey’s slide into authoritarianism.
Mark Leon Goldberg, UN Dispatch: “Why Municipal Elections in Turkey Have Global Significance”
Mohammed Ayoob, The National Interest: “After Losing Istanbul, Erdogan’s Grip on Turkey Will Never Be the Same….The Istanbul verdict is very important because nearly one-fifth of the Turkish population lives in Istanbul and the city produces over thirty percent of Turkey’s GDP.”
Ohran Coskun, Reuters: “Former Turkish deputy prime minister Ali Babacan said on Monday he was resigning from President Tayyip Erdogan’s AK Party over ‘deep differences’ with the party’s direction and said that Turkey needed a new vision. Babacan, along with former president Abdullah Gul, plans to launch a rival political party this year, according to people familiar with the matter, in a move that could further erode support for Erdogan following a stinging electoral defeat in Istanbul last month.
Middle East This Week – July 9, 2019
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Last Updated: July 16, 2019 by 21votes
July 9, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election and political news from a different region of the world. We explore the greater Middle East and North Africa on Tuesdays. Click the map pins.
Algeria Presidential – July 4, 2019 (cancelled)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Algerian politics are dominated by Le Pouvoir, a small group of elite from the military and the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, aged 82 and unable to walk or talk, was going to run for a fifth term in the election originally scheduled for April, but tens of thousands of Algerians protestedfor two months, and Bouteflika resigned. The election was moved to July 4, but then the Constitutional Council cancelled the vote and has not set a new date. Protests continue. Protesters are demanding assurances that any new elections will be free and fair.
Victoria Gatenby, Al-Jazeera: “Algeria protesters demand free elections within six months. Algerian protesters and opposition parties have demanded elections take place by the end of the year, after the interim president pushed for talks.”
France24: “Authorities have postponed a presidential election initially planned for Thursday, extending a transition period led by Bensalah as upper house head according to the constitution. In a televised speech, Bensalah said a national dialogue should be launched to decide on how to hold presidential elections, without setting a date.”
Aomar Ouali, AP: “Prominent Algerians from various walks of life tried Saturday to craft a plan to pull their country out of political crisis and prepare for a presidential election — but faced pressure from authorities and divisions within the country’s democratic movement.”
Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Israel – nicknamed the “startup nation” – is a vibrant democracy. In September, Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s center-right Likud was unable to form a coalition following April’s elections. While parties friendly to Netanyahu won more seats than those friendly to Netanyahu’s main rival, former IDF chief Benny Gantz, coalition talks collapsed over the issue of drafting ultra-Orthodox into the military. One of Likud’s coalition partners, Avgidor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, supported conscription – and refused to budge – while religious parties adamantly opposed it, highlighting growing tensions between secular and religious Israelis. Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset and called for new elections rather than giving Gantz the chance to try to form a government. Additionally, Netanyahu faces corruption charges. The elections are happening in the middle of U.S. President Donald Trump’s quixotic attempt to seal the “deal of the century” between Israelis and Palestinians.
Dahlia Scheindlin, Foreign Affairs: “What to Expect From Israel’s Election Re-Run: Can Netanyahu Unite the Right?”
Jerusalem Post: “If Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was elected today, would he be able to form a government without Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu party? A new poll published Friday by the Hebrew daily Israel Hayom shows that Netanyahu would still need the former defense minister.”
Jonathan Lis, Haaretz: “Israel’s Center-left Parties Seek Election Alliance, but Little Progress Made”
Shany Mor, The Algemeiner: “Three Scenarios for Israel’s Election Campaign”
Gil Hoffman, Jerusalem Post: “The September 17 election must take place and cannot be cancelled, Knesset legal adviser Eyal Yinon ruled on Thursday, but he left open the possibility that the election could still be prevented if war broke out.
Adam Rasgon, Times of Israel: “Greenblatt: Trump may decide to release peace plan before Israeli elections. American envoy says White House still mulling whether to wait until after a government is formed to publicize political proposal”
Dalia Hatuqa, Foreign Policy: “Benjamin Netanyahu and Mahmoud Abbas Need Each Other to Survive: Israel needs the Palestinian Authority’s security cooperation to avoid another intifada—and without security ties to Israel and the funding that comes with it, the PA could cease to exist.”
Afghanistan Presidential – September 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Islamic Republic
Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, marred by violence and administrative problems. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election. Presidential campaign is gearing up right in the middle of peacenegotiations between the United States and the Taliban.
Ashley Jackson, Foreign Policy: “There Will Be No Peace for Afghanistan. Despite optimistic signs from U.S.-led peace talks in Qatar, Afghanistan’s future looks bleak.”
Pamela Constable, Washington Post: “Taliban car bomb hits intelligence compound in Afghanistan, killing at least 12 and wounding schoolchildren”
Tunisia Parliamentary – October 6, 2019 and Presidential – November 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and this year, the country will hold the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Ennadha, which presents itself as a moderate, pro-democracy Islamist party but holds some retrograde views, won the first post-Ben Ali elections, but in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the secularist Nidaa Tounes won the most seats. In 2018, Tunisia held long-delayed municipal elections, which saw independent candidates win the most seats, followed by Ennadha. President Beji Caid Essebsi of Nidaa Tounes, who became Tunisia’s first democratically-elected president in 2014, has said he will not seek a second term this year, even though the constitution allows it, saying it was time to “open the door to the youth” (Essebsi is 92). Prime Minister Youssef Chahed broke off from Nidaa Tounes to form Tahya Tounes, another secularist party, and it looks to be a close contest between the fractious secularist parties and Ennadha (Machrouu Tounes, another secularist party, broke from Nidaa Tounes in 2016 and currently has 25 seats in parliament).
Terrorist attacks and Essebsi’s sudden illness threatened to throw a wrench in Tunisian politics.
Alessandra Bajec, The New Arab: “Tunisian voters defiant despite terror attacks and president’s ill health”
The Economist: “The elections present an opportunity for political outsiders. A recent survey by Sigma Conseil, a pollster, was grim reading for established politicians.”
Kersten Knipp, DW: “Tunisian LGBT rights advocate ‘sticking with’ bid for presidency. Gay rights activist Mounir Baatour wants to become president in Tunisia — and is putting the fight for LGBT rights at the center of his election campaign. He doesn’t have much a chance, but he’s determined to fight.”
Gordon Gray, The National Interest: “America Should Support Tunisian Democracy”
Reuters: “Tunisia’s tourism revenues soared 42.5% in the first half of 2019 to $692 million compared to the same period last year, official figures showed on Monday. The figures came days after three suicide bombings in Tunis, by militants targeting police, as Tunisia prepares for autumn elections and is in peak tourist season.”
Conrad Duncan, The Independent: “Tunisia has banned face-covering veils in state-run buildings “for security reasons” following three terror attacks in the space of a week. The decision ends a policy of official tolerance to face-covering in public institutions and makes the north African nation the latest country to outlaw religious clothing in the aftermath of terrorism.”
Iran Parliamentary – February 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Theocratic Republic
Some analysts argue that “moderates” or “reformers” won Iran’s 2016 parliamentary elections, but the country’s opaque politics make it difficult to know for sure how to characterize the results. All candidates must be approved by the Guardian Council, which rejected thousands during the 2016 elections. Parliament is less powerful than the Supreme Leader and other institutions such as the Guardian Council, the judiciary, and the security services. The elections are happening in the context of escalating tensions with the United States.
RFE/RL’s Radio Farda: “Meeting with members of Engineers Association on Saturday, July 6, [former president Mohammed] Khatami called for efforts toward forming an effective strategy for reformists strategy, to attract people to participate in elections. The Iranian electorate has at times pinned its hopes on reformists during elections and handed them victories, starting with Mr. Khatami’s first election as president in 1997. But every time conservatives supported by the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the hardline military have quashed hopes of reforming the system in favor of a less restrictive political and social environment.”
Palestinian Authority Legislative - Due by July 2019 (postponed indefinitely)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (in both Gaza and West Bank)
Elections are long overdue. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is currently in year 14 of a four-year term. Legislative Council elections are similarly long overdue – the last took place in 2006. Islamist fundamentalist Hamas won in a landslide. Municipal elections – boycotted by Hamas – have happened three times – in 2004-2005 in both Gaza and the West Bank and in 2012 and 2017 in the West Bank. In December 2018, the Ramallah-based Constitutional Court issued a ruling dissolving the Legislative Council (which had not met since 2007) and ordering elections within six months, but the elections are on hold indefinitely in the midst of a deadlocked conflict between the Gaza-baed Hamas and Abbas’s secularist Fatah, based in the West Bank.
Khaled Abu Toameh, Gatestone Institute: “Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas says that he is ready to hold long-overdue presidential and parliamentary elections, and has even instructed the Palestinian Central Elections Commission to start preparing for the vote. Abbas seems to be taking quite a gamble. There is a real possibility that his rivals in Hamas will manage to push him off the presidential throne he has been occupying so persistently for the past fourteen years.”
Al-Monitor: “For the first time in Jenin governorate, in the northern West Bank, a woman was elected June 25 to preside over the village council of al-Judeida. The council’s 11 members chose social activist Kifaya Zakzouk to head the council during elections held under the supervision of the directorate of the Ministry of Local Government in Jenin governorate.”
Amira Hass, Haaretz: “’Palestinian Authority Is Tyrannical’: Joint Gaza, West Bank Conference Amps Criticism of Abbas and Hamas. At a recent confab, panel members and everyday Palestinians discuss democracy, with their openness only highlighting the obedience enforced on Fatah and PLO”
Libya Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: In Transition
Libya remains in a civil war. The international community wants Libya to hold presidential or parliamentary elections this year. Unclear when the elections will actually happen.
Samer Khali al-Atrush, Ilya Arkhipov, Henry Meyer, Bloomberg: “Libyan security forces have arrested two men accused of working for a Russian troll farm seeking to influence elections in the oil exporter and other African countries. A letter from the state prosecutor of the internationally-backed Tripoli government to a Libyan security chief said the men were involved in ‘securing a meeting’ with Saif al-Islam al-Qaddafi, the fugitive son of the ousted dictator and a potential presidential candidate who enjoys the backing of some officials in Moscow.”
AP: “In Libya, a rogues’ gallery of militias”
Turkey, Istanbul Mayoral Re-Run, June 23, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Party Free in 2018) – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Turkey held local elections on March 31, but invalidated the results of the Istanbul mayoral election after Ekrem Imamoglu from the opposition Republican Party (CHP) won by a small margin. They re-ran the election on June 23 after Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) alleged fraud. The move did not pay off – Imamoglu defeated AKP’s Binali Yildirim once again, by an even bigger margin. The election took place in the context of Turkey’s slide into authoritarianism.
Mark Leon Goldberg, UN Dispatch: “Why Municipal Elections in Turkey Have Global Significance”
Mohammed Ayoob, The National Interest: “After Losing Istanbul, Erdogan’s Grip on Turkey Will Never Be the Same….The Istanbul verdict is very important because nearly one-fifth of the Turkish population lives in Istanbul and the city produces over thirty percent of Turkey’s GDP.”
Ohran Coskun, Reuters: “Former Turkish deputy prime minister Ali Babacan said on Monday he was resigning from President Tayyip Erdogan’s AK Party over ‘deep differences’ with the party’s direction and said that Turkey needed a new vision. Babacan, along with former president Abdullah Gul, plans to launch a rival political party this year, according to people familiar with the matter, in a move that could further erode support for Erdogan following a stinging electoral defeat in Istanbul last month.
Upcoming Elections
Algeria Presidential – July 4, 2019 (cancelled)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Algerian politics are dominated by Le Pouvoir, a small group of elite from the military and the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, aged 82 and unable to walk or talk, was going to run for a fifth term in the election originally scheduled for April, but tens of thousands of Algerians protestedfor two months, and Bouteflika resigned. The election was moved to July 4, but then the Constitutional Council cancelled the vote and has not set a new date. Protests continue. Protesters are demanding assurances that any new elections will be free and fair.
Victoria Gatenby, Al-Jazeera: “Algeria protesters demand free elections within six months. Algerian protesters and opposition parties have demanded elections take place by the end of the year, after the interim president pushed for talks.”
France24: “Authorities have postponed a presidential election initially planned for Thursday, extending a transition period led by Bensalah as upper house head according to the constitution. In a televised speech, Bensalah said a national dialogue should be launched to decide on how to hold presidential elections, without setting a date.”
Aomar Ouali, AP: “Prominent Algerians from various walks of life tried Saturday to craft a plan to pull their country out of political crisis and prepare for a presidential election — but faced pressure from authorities and divisions within the country’s democratic movement.”
Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Israel – nicknamed the “startup nation” – is a vibrant democracy. In September, Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s center-right Likud was unable to form a coalition following April’s elections. While parties friendly to Netanyahu won more seats than those friendly to Netanyahu’s main rival, former IDF chief Benny Gantz, coalition talks collapsed over the issue of drafting ultra-Orthodox into the military. One of Likud’s coalition partners, Avgidor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, supported conscription – and refused to budge – while religious parties adamantly opposed it, highlighting growing tensions between secular and religious Israelis. Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset and called for new elections rather than giving Gantz the chance to try to form a government. Additionally, Netanyahu faces corruption charges. The elections are happening in the middle of U.S. President Donald Trump’s quixotic attempt to seal the “deal of the century” between Israelis and Palestinians.
Dahlia Scheindlin, Foreign Affairs: “What to Expect From Israel’s Election Re-Run: Can Netanyahu Unite the Right?”
Jerusalem Post: “If Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was elected today, would he be able to form a government without Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu party? A new poll published Friday by the Hebrew daily Israel Hayom shows that Netanyahu would still need the former defense minister.”
Jonathan Lis, Haaretz: “Israel’s Center-left Parties Seek Election Alliance, but Little Progress Made”
Shany Mor, The Algemeiner: “Three Scenarios for Israel’s Election Campaign”
Gil Hoffman, Jerusalem Post: “The September 17 election must take place and cannot be cancelled, Knesset legal adviser Eyal Yinon ruled on Thursday, but he left open the possibility that the election could still be prevented if war broke out.
Adam Rasgon, Times of Israel: “Greenblatt: Trump may decide to release peace plan before Israeli elections. American envoy says White House still mulling whether to wait until after a government is formed to publicize political proposal”
Dalia Hatuqa, Foreign Policy: “Benjamin Netanyahu and Mahmoud Abbas Need Each Other to Survive: Israel needs the Palestinian Authority’s security cooperation to avoid another intifada—and without security ties to Israel and the funding that comes with it, the PA could cease to exist.”
Afghanistan Presidential – September 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Islamic Republic
Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, marred by violence and administrative problems. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election. Presidential campaign is gearing up right in the middle of peacenegotiations between the United States and the Taliban.
Ashley Jackson, Foreign Policy: “There Will Be No Peace for Afghanistan. Despite optimistic signs from U.S.-led peace talks in Qatar, Afghanistan’s future looks bleak.”
Pamela Constable, Washington Post: “Taliban car bomb hits intelligence compound in Afghanistan, killing at least 12 and wounding schoolchildren”
Tunisia Parliamentary – October 6, 2019 and Presidential – November 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and this year, the country will hold the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Ennadha, which presents itself as a moderate, pro-democracy Islamist party but holds some retrograde views, won the first post-Ben Ali elections, but in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the secularist Nidaa Tounes won the most seats. In 2018, Tunisia held long-delayed municipal elections, which saw independent candidates win the most seats, followed by Ennadha. President Beji Caid Essebsi of Nidaa Tounes, who became Tunisia’s first democratically-elected president in 2014, has said he will not seek a second term this year, even though the constitution allows it, saying it was time to “open the door to the youth” (Essebsi is 92). Prime Minister Youssef Chahed broke off from Nidaa Tounes to form Tahya Tounes, another secularist party, and it looks to be a close contest between the fractious secularist parties and Ennadha (Machrouu Tounes, another secularist party, broke from Nidaa Tounes in 2016 and currently has 25 seats in parliament).
Terrorist attacks and Essebsi’s sudden illness threatened to throw a wrench in Tunisian politics.
Alessandra Bajec, The New Arab: “Tunisian voters defiant despite terror attacks and president’s ill health”
The Economist: “The elections present an opportunity for political outsiders. A recent survey by Sigma Conseil, a pollster, was grim reading for established politicians.”
Kersten Knipp, DW: “Tunisian LGBT rights advocate ‘sticking with’ bid for presidency. Gay rights activist Mounir Baatour wants to become president in Tunisia — and is putting the fight for LGBT rights at the center of his election campaign. He doesn’t have much a chance, but he’s determined to fight.”
Gordon Gray, The National Interest: “America Should Support Tunisian Democracy”
Reuters: “Tunisia’s tourism revenues soared 42.5% in the first half of 2019 to $692 million compared to the same period last year, official figures showed on Monday. The figures came days after three suicide bombings in Tunis, by militants targeting police, as Tunisia prepares for autumn elections and is in peak tourist season.”
Conrad Duncan, The Independent: “Tunisia has banned face-covering veils in state-run buildings “for security reasons” following three terror attacks in the space of a week. The decision ends a policy of official tolerance to face-covering in public institutions and makes the north African nation the latest country to outlaw religious clothing in the aftermath of terrorism.”
Iran Parliamentary – February 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Theocratic Republic
Some analysts argue that “moderates” or “reformers” won Iran’s 2016 parliamentary elections, but the country’s opaque politics make it difficult to know for sure how to characterize the results. All candidates must be approved by the Guardian Council, which rejected thousands during the 2016 elections. Parliament is less powerful than the Supreme Leader and other institutions such as the Guardian Council, the judiciary, and the security services. The elections are happening in the context of escalating tensions with the United States.
RFE/RL’s Radio Farda: “Meeting with members of Engineers Association on Saturday, July 6, [former president Mohammed] Khatami called for efforts toward forming an effective strategy for reformists strategy, to attract people to participate in elections. The Iranian electorate has at times pinned its hopes on reformists during elections and handed them victories, starting with Mr. Khatami’s first election as president in 1997. But every time conservatives supported by the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the hardline military have quashed hopes of reforming the system in favor of a less restrictive political and social environment.”
Palestinian Authority Legislative – Due by July 2019 (postponed indefinitely)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (in both Gaza and West Bank)
Elections are long overdue. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is currently in year 14 of a four-year term. Legislative Council elections are similarly long overdue – the last took place in 2006. Islamist fundamentalist Hamas won in a landslide. Municipal elections – boycotted by Hamas – have happened three times – in 2004-2005 in both Gaza and the West Bank and in 2012 and 2017 in the West Bank. In December 2018, the Ramallah-based Constitutional Court issued a ruling dissolving the Legislative Council (which had not met since 2007) and ordering elections within six months, but the elections are on hold indefinitely in the midst of a deadlocked conflict between the Gaza-baed Hamas and Abbas’s secularist Fatah, based in the West Bank.
Khaled Abu Toameh, Gatestone Institute: “Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas says that he is ready to hold long-overdue presidential and parliamentary elections, and has even instructed the Palestinian Central Elections Commission to start preparing for the vote. Abbas seems to be taking quite a gamble. There is a real possibility that his rivals in Hamas will manage to push him off the presidential throne he has been occupying so persistently for the past fourteen years.”
Al-Monitor: “For the first time in Jenin governorate, in the northern West Bank, a woman was elected June 25 to preside over the village council of al-Judeida. The council’s 11 members chose social activist Kifaya Zakzouk to head the council during elections held under the supervision of the directorate of the Ministry of Local Government in Jenin governorate.”
Amira Hass, Haaretz: “’Palestinian Authority Is Tyrannical’: Joint Gaza, West Bank Conference Amps Criticism of Abbas and Hamas. At a recent confab, panel members and everyday Palestinians discuss democracy, with their openness only highlighting the obedience enforced on Fatah and PLO”
Libya Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: In Transition
Libya remains in a civil war. The international community wants Libya to hold presidential or parliamentary elections this year. Unclear when the elections will actually happen.
Samer Khali al-Atrush, Ilya Arkhipov, Henry Meyer, Bloomberg: “Libyan security forces have arrested two men accused of working for a Russian troll farm seeking to influence elections in the oil exporter and other African countries. A letter from the state prosecutor of the internationally-backed Tripoli government to a Libyan security chief said the men were involved in ‘securing a meeting’ with Saif al-Islam al-Qaddafi, the fugitive son of the ousted dictator and a potential presidential candidate who enjoys the backing of some officials in Moscow.”
AP: “In Libya, a rogues’ gallery of militias”
Past Elections
Turkey, Istanbul Mayoral Re-Run, June 23, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Party Free in 2018) – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Turkey held local elections on March 31, but invalidated the results of the Istanbul mayoral election after Ekrem Imamoglu from the opposition Republican Party (CHP) won by a small margin. They re-ran the election on June 23 after Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) alleged fraud. The move did not pay off – Imamoglu defeated AKP’s Binali Yildirim once again, by an even bigger margin. The election took place in the context of Turkey’s slide into authoritarianism.
Mark Leon Goldberg, UN Dispatch: “Why Municipal Elections in Turkey Have Global Significance”
Mohammed Ayoob, The National Interest: “After Losing Istanbul, Erdogan’s Grip on Turkey Will Never Be the Same….The Istanbul verdict is very important because nearly one-fifth of the Turkish population lives in Istanbul and the city produces over thirty percent of Turkey’s GDP.”
Ohran Coskun, Reuters: “Former Turkish deputy prime minister Ali Babacan said on Monday he was resigning from President Tayyip Erdogan’s AK Party over ‘deep differences’ with the party’s direction and said that Turkey needed a new vision. Babacan, along with former president Abdullah Gul, plans to launch a rival political party this year, according to people familiar with the matter, in a move that could further erode support for Erdogan following a stinging electoral defeat in Istanbul last month.
The Year Ahead: Middle East
Egypt local (due 2019 – date not set – delays likely); Libya (international community wants presidential or legislative elections this year – delays highly likely); Algeria presidential (July 4 – cancelled); Israel snap parliamentary (September 17); Afghanistan presidential (September 28); Tunisia parliamentary and presidential (October 6 and November 17); Iraq provincial (November 16); Iran parliamentary (February 2020); Palestinian Authority legislative (elections overdue – new government says they aim to hold elections but no date set)
21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.
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Category: This Week Tags: Afghanistan, Algeria, Iran, Israel, Libya, Palestinian Authority, Tunisia, Turkey